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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

There I was refreshing the old thread

FrancisUrquhart

Haven't the poor residents of Stoke already had enough punishment from a couple of windbags?

CarlottaVance

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

Edit - and on behalf of @Tories4Corbyn clearly any loss in either seat can be attributed to the extraordinary weather conditions and not at all to the 113 point gap in approval with Mrs May among the over 65s

RobD

@CarlottaVance only 113 points? Merely a flesh wound!

fitalass

Twitter
Mike Gapes@MikeGapes
Just got my first ever Formal Written Reprimand letter from the Chief Whip. It's now in a frame. But long way to go to match Jeremy.

(((StephenDaisley)))@JournoStephen
(((StephenDaisley))) Retweeted Mike Gapes
I can't think of a higher honour than being rebuked by the people killing the Labour Party.

CarlottaVance

Oh dear, what a shame. The 'Business for Scotland' SNP front totally independent organisation's leader has shut his only business - a 'social media consultancy' which he ran from his livingroom (sure it wasn't the spare room? - ed.) after losing 'a significant amount of money':

Gordon Macintyre-Kemp, who is behind a new fundraising campaign for a second referendum, put more than £50,000 into a social media consultancy that ended with net assets of £594.

Intelligise Limited, which was based at Mr Macintyre-Kemp’s home in Jordanhill in Glasgow, was “dissolved via voluntary strike-off” in February 2016, the Herald can reveal.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105527.Business_for_Scotland_boss_admits_losing_money_on_his_business/?ref=twtrec

Will they change the name to 'Failed Business for Scotland'?

dugarbandier

CarlottaVance said:

Oh dear, what a shame. The 'Business for Scotland' SNP front totally independent organisation's leader has shut his only business - a 'social media consultancy' which he ran from his livingroom (sure it wasn't the spare room? - ed.) after losing 'a significant amount of money':

Gordon Macintyre-Kemp, who is behind a new fundraising campaign for a second referendum, put more than £50,000 into a social media consultancy that ended with net assets of £594.

Intelligise Limited, which was based at Mr Macintyre-Kemp’s home in Jordanhill in Glasgow, was “dissolved via voluntary strike-off” in February 2016, the Herald can reveal.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105527.Business_for_Scotland_boss_admits_losing_money_on_his_business/?ref=twtrec

Will they change the name to 'Failed Business for Scotland'?

So does that make him 6 times as successful as Trump? (or only 1/6th as successful?)

dugarbandier

are you all hiding from Doris? or all canvassing?

CarlottaVance

dugarbandier said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh dear, what a shame. The 'Business for Scotland' SNP front totally independent organisation's leader has shut his only business - a 'social media consultancy' which he ran from his livingroom (sure it wasn't the spare room? - ed.) after losing 'a significant amount of money':

Gordon Macintyre-Kemp, who is behind a new fundraising campaign for a second referendum, put more than £50,000 into a social media consultancy that ended with net assets of £594.

Intelligise Limited, which was based at Mr Macintyre-Kemp’s home in Jordanhill in Glasgow, was “dissolved via voluntary strike-off” in February 2016, the Herald can reveal.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105527.Business_for_Scotland_boss_admits_losing_money_on_his_business/?ref=twtrec

Will they change the name to 'Failed Business for Scotland'?

So does that make him 6 times as successful as Trump? (or only 1/6th as successful?)

When it comes to losing money, Mr Macintyre-Kemp is but an amateur compared to Mr Trump. and whats worse (or better, depending on your point of view) is it appears to be his own money......putting Mr Macintyre-Kemp's personal embarrassment to one side, the broader point is who do 'Business for Scotland' represent? Business in Scotland, or the SNP?

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2014/06/who-do-business-for-scotland-represent.html

JackW

Doris Stokes .... I wonder through what medium we'll see the result coming first and will it have any spiritual meaning to PBers ?

MattW

Back to topic (after a diversion via SNP ROFL).

In Stoke if I have been paying attention Labour have the strongest local activist base so a gale or snowstorm would presumably be in their favour.

CarlottaVance

MattW said:

Back to topic (after a diversion via SNP ROFL).

In Stoke if I have been paying attention Labour have the strongest local activist base so a gale or snowstorm would presumably be in their favour.

The other factor will be postal votes - depressed turnout on the day will increase their share of the total ballot.....

rcs1000

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

JackW

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think you vastly underestimate the power of the Stoke UKIP candidate to influence the weather. A mere sweep of the hand of St Paul of Stoke will render UKIP voters immune from the vagaries of mere weather and render them effortlessly to the polls to ensure the coronation of the Great Leader.

rcs1000

Here's a provocative piece from The Atlantic: the only thing that's curbed inequality historically is catastrophe

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/

CarlottaVance

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

swing_voter

Crikey, Doris Stokes, there's a name from the past. But, is this a case of the Met office being risk averse and covering its back in which case, it will come down to the vagaries of the voter - any chance of a sweepstake or market on turnout?

Gadfly

Having dealt with all of the hot air and bluster emanating from Paul Nuttall, I am confident that the good people of Stoke are well prepared for this storm.

dugarbandier

rcs1000 said:

Here's a provocative piece from The Atlantic: the only thing that's curbed inequality historically is catastrophe

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/

"peasants, know your place"? (or, peasants foment violent revolution)

dugarbandier

just browsing 538 - the oscars changed to AV from FPTP in 2010! who knew...

Charles

whilst the strongest winds look to be short lived ... damage to structures, interruption to power, and widespread disruption... are likely

Is this the weather or Jezza's leadership we're talking about?

tpfkar

Doesn't this make phone banks all the more important? If it's too unpleasant to be out for hours, much easier to knock up by phone?

Perhaps a lesson for the Liberal .Metropolitan Elite though - there's been a debate about why Copeland is depopulating, hard to recruit key NHS staff in Whitehaven. If the LME have to try to work when it's rainy and windy, they might understand the problem a little more?

Sandpit

I guess this is where we will see who has done the advance work on postal votes in Stoke and Copeland, and who has the hardiest GOTV team with a fleet of cars.

Good luck to all those involved on the ground, as the weather adds another wild factor to the most unpredictable by-election in years - at least if Labour lose they'll have a ready-to-go excuse why they lost which isn't Jeremy Corbyn!

AlsoIndigo

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

OldKingCole

There isn’t going be a hurricane, though!
Apparently nowadays the Met Office, and presumably other British forecasters tend to overplay bad weather, to avoid a ‘Michael Fish moment’!

ThreeQuidder

dugarbandier said:

just browsing 538 - the oscars changed to AV from FPTP in 2010! who knew...

The author gets a basic fact about AV wrong. Someone should educate him...

DavidL

More than half the good people of Stoke did not vote on the pleasant May day in 2015. Perhaps that was driven by the choice of candidate available which was undoubtedly disappointing. If so, we could be looking at some pretty record lows this time out where someone merely disappointing would shine like a latter day Gladstone.

I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.

AlsoIndigo

OldKingCole said:

There isn’t going be a hurricane, though!
Apparently nowadays the Met Office, and presumably other British forecasters tend to overplay bad weather, to avoid a ‘Michael Fish moment’!

Also if you are offering weather forecasting as a commercial product there are bound to be liabilities issues if your client uses your forecast of moderate weather and incurs a loss as a result.

Pulpstar

Doris

NickPalmer

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think it boosts a Con/Lab result chance, as you say. The Tories have become expert at postal voting which should help them in Copeland but started working Stoke seriously too late for it to matter there. Labour has a big organisational lead over UKIP.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think the Stoke effect would be bigger than the Copeland effect - where honestly the outcome wouldn't have been very different at all.

ThreeQuidder

Referendum: it's Boris Wot Won It.
By elections: it's Doris Wot Won It.

rottenborough

Is the weather going to be that bad in Copeland? Certainly BBC showing heavy rain, but wind not as bad as other parts of UK. Depends where the storm finally hits landfall I guess.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

ThreeQuidder said:

dugarbandier said:

just browsing 538 - the oscars changed to AV from FPTP in 2010! who knew...

The author gets a basic fact about AV wrong. Someone should educate him...

Hardly surprising given the dearth of explanatory threads on AV here.

AlsoIndigo

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

NickPalmer

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

In every election that I've ever fought the party had insurance for this (and for injuries to voters being transported), and I had the impression it was mandatory, not just a Labour policy.

But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.

Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.

tlg86

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

That was the lead story at 6am on Sky News. Oddly it wasn't the lead story on the BBC.

JackW

swing_voter said:

Crikey, Doris Stokes ..

Cricket, Ben Stokes ..

Through the ether ..

P Nuttall - Caught Silly Point - Bowled Stoke's Electorate - 0

Rain Stopped Play ....

Sandpit

DavidL said:

More than half the good people of Stoke did not vote on the pleasant May day in 2015. Perhaps that was driven by the choice of candidate available which was undoubtedly disappointing. If so, we could be looking at some pretty record lows this time out where someone merely disappointing would shine like a latter day Gladstone.

I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.

Very true, and with a 25% turnout in Stoke the result could be anything - four parties all over 20% maybe?

The hardy folk of Cumbria all know that a bit of rain, wind and snow doesn't mean the cows milk themselves, some jobs have to be done whatever the weather. Oh, and nuclear power stations run on the same principle! Expect a queue of Land Rovers and even tractors at the polling stations of Copeland tomorrow.

rottenborough

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think you vastly underestimate the power of the Stoke UKIP candidate to influence the weather. A mere sweep of the hand of St Paul of Stoke will render UKIP voters immune from the vagaries of mere weather and render them effortlessly to the polls to ensure the coronation of the Great Leader.

NickPalmer

Anyway, to the important stuff: what happened in Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane?

AlastairMeeks

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

https://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

SouthamObserver

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

Dixie

NickPalmer said:

Anyway, to the important stuff: what happened in Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane?

good question. CAn't find info about it. Has count been done I wonder?

Essexit

ThreeQuidder said:

Referendum: it's Boris Wot Won It.
By elections: it's Doris Wot Won It.

XD

rcs1000

AlsoIndigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

My view, and this is just supposition, is that most people who Postal vote do so at the instigation of a political party. "So, Mr Smith, you plan on voting Labour. Can I just check you will be in Stoke on election day? Your night be busy, you say, well let me organise a postal vote for you." I'm not convinced (although I could be wrong) that UKIP has the Postal vote ground game down pat.

Dixie

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

More than half the good people of Stoke did not vote on the pleasant May day in 2015. Perhaps that was driven by the choice of candidate available which was undoubtedly disappointing. If so, we could be looking at some pretty record lows this time out where someone merely disappointing would shine like a latter day Gladstone.

I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.

Very true, and with a 25% turnout in Stoke the result could be anything - four parties all over 20% maybe?

The hardy folk of Cumbria all know that a bit of rain, wind and snow doesn't mean the cows milk themselves, some jobs have to be done whatever the weather. Oh, and nuclear power stations run on the same principle! Expect a queue of Land Rovers and even tractors at the polling stations of Copeland tomorrow.

I've finally had a report from UKIP on the ground in Stoke. I'm off to work now and will report tonight.

dugarbandier

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

More than half the good people of Stoke did not vote on the pleasant May day in 2015. Perhaps that was driven by the choice of candidate available which was undoubtedly disappointing. If so, we could be looking at some pretty record lows this time out where someone merely disappointing would shine like a latter day Gladstone.

I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.

Very true, and with a 25% turnout in Stoke the result could be anything - four parties all over 20% maybe?

The hardy folk of Cumbria all know that a bit of rain, wind and snow doesn't mean the cows milk themselves, some jobs have to be done whatever the weather. Oh, and nuclear power stations run on the same principle! Expect a queue of Land Rovers and even tractors at the polling stations of Copeland tomorrow.

I resent all these implications that Cumbria is somehow hardier than Stoke btw. All that lot up there do is wander around admiring daffodils (or so I'm led to believe). Whereas yr average stokie is probably doing a backbreaking shift at the bet365 mines...

Monksfield

Fire up the engine and full speed ahead...

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/02/22/if-economics-cant-forecast-a-crisis-then-theres-something-deeply-wrong-with-economics/

Sandpit

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

In every election that I've ever fought the party had insurance for this (and for injuries to voters being transported), and I had the impression it was mandatory, not just a Labour policy.

But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.

Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.

Interesting point on car lifts, I did a few in 2010 where we did evening canvassing and said we could go now if they wanted a lift to the polling station. I imagine that if it's raining the proverbial cats and dogs and blowing a gale, then a nice man offering a lift down the road to those without a car would be warmly received.

DecrepitJohnL

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

Jonathan

The headline will be " ___________ blown away."

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

In every election that I've ever fought the party had insurance for this (and for injuries to voters being transported), and I had the impression it was mandatory, not just a Labour policy.

But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.

Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.

In the referendum, where we were scraping the bottom of the barrel had very high turnout my wife was offering car duties and got 2 requests. One of the two was so dottled that we still don't know which way she voted. She seemed to find yes and no almost impossibly confusing!

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

My view, and this is just supposition, is that most people who Postal vote do so at the instigation of a political party. "So, Mr Smith, you plan on voting Labour. Can I just check you will be in Stoke on election day? Your night be busy, you say, well let me organise a postal vote for you." I'm not convinced (although I could be wrong) that UKIP has the Postal vote ground game down pat.

Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, as we know, overwhelmingly favour the Tories.

rottenborough

tlg86 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

That was the lead story at 6am on Sky News. Oddly it wasn't the lead story on the BBC.

It was David Blunket, not Tony Blair. BBC covered the story as lead item on BBC News at 10pm. Didn't mention the actual figure of compensation, which probably wasn't known at the time.

notme

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

Because we would never get others doing similar things:
https://goo.gl/images/NGqQjG

Dixie

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

SouthamObserver

notme said:

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

Because we would never get others doing similar things:
https://goo.gl/images/NGqQjG

Oh, that's OK then.

rottenborough

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

LOL. What is the octopus view of Stoke by-election?

SouthamObserver

Those hoping Brexit would mean higher wages for the low paid and less EU immigration will be rejoicing this morning:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/834180531067691008

AlastairMeeks

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

What do you expect from an administration that is currently arguing with the Anne Frank Center over its attitude to anti-Semitism?

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

tlg86

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

That was the lead story at 6am on Sky News. Oddly it wasn't the lead story on the BBC.

It was David Blunket, not Tony Blair. BBC covered the story as lead item on BBC News at 10pm. Didn't mention the actual figure of compensation, which probably wasn't known at the time.

That's the thing with BBC News, blink and you miss it. Unless it's about Paul Nuttall or the NHS, in which case the story will be repeated over and over again.

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

What do you expect from an administration that is currently arguing with the Anne Frank Center over its attitude to anti-Semitism?

The black vote was down last November. It's going to need epic voter suppression to ensure that remains the case in 2020.

Alistair

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

I think you misunderstand the subtitle. Its not that Penny thinks he should be punched in the face its that she thinks Milo wants to be punched in the face as the ultimate validation of his strategy.

JackW

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

Yes but what an octopus President Trump is proving to be - couldn't keep his tentacles off the ladies and now he's got his mits all over world wide policy.

That's entertainment ..

Dixie

rottenborough said:

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

LOL. What is the octopus view of Stoke by-election?

Not heard or felt a tentacle yet! I've scoured the web. Nuffink!

Essexit

JackW said:

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

Yes but what an octopus President Trump is proving to be - couldn't keep his tentacles off the ladies and now he's got his mits all over world wide policy.

That's entertainment ..

But, after the Secretary of State appointment that wasn't, not his Mitt.

AlsoIndigo

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

JosiasJessop

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

As I said yesterday, ignoring him doesn't work. The Milobots will just spam places with his awesomeness. As has happened on here.

People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.

Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Might the adverse weather bolster the blues and yellows?

It may harm Labour the most, due to their voters often not bothering anyway.

ThreeQuidder

notme said:

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

Because we would never get others doing similar things:
https://goo.gl/images/NGqQjG

Adjusting one's jacket is racist now? Come on...

AlsoIndigo

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

As I said yesterday, ignoring him doesn't work. The Milobots will just spam places with his awesomeness. As has happened on here.

People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.

Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.

Challenging with reasoned debate and by putting an argument sensibly, soberly and backed by facts and evidence. Screaming at people and insulting them, never mind punching them in the face, doesnt change minds, it drives people into a bunker where you dont know what they think until they comes out and vote.

kle4

Like predictions of corbyn's labour doing poorly in by-elections I wonder if in the end the storm speeds will be pretty alright.

PlatoSaid

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

Source material for a hundred movies has happened for real over the last 2yrs. I honestly can't tell if something is real or not anymore without checking. It's reminded me of something Bill Clinton said about House of Cards 'the only thing wrong is that you'd never get an Education Bill passed that fast'.

There's a fascinating analysis on the splurge of anti-Semitism stories that have popped up all over the US media. It's not yet another attack on Trump - it's DNC internecine war over Saturday's Chair vote.

Well worth a read - https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/02/21/have-you-noticed-media-pushing-a-national-narrative-of-anti-semitism-today-heres-why/

kle4

rcs1000 said:

Here's a provocative piece from The Atlantic: the only thing that's curbed inequality historically is catastrophe

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/

We were discussing the same thing the other day re the Black Death. I guess because incremental change is hard and often not even attempted, but catastrophe forces change which, ultimately, can lead to good, if at a high price. I shall read with interest.

rcs1000

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

I would rather ISIS suicide bombers were blowing themselves up a long way away from me, rather than locally.

matt

PlatoSaid said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

Source material for a hundred movies has happened for real over the last 2yrs. I honestly can't tell if something is real or not anymore without checking. It's reminded me of something Bill Clinton said about House of Cards 'the only thing wrong is that you'd never get an Education Bill passed that fast'.

There's a fascinating analysis on the splurge of anti-Semitism stories that have popped up all over the US media. It's not yet another attack on Trump - it's DNC internecine war over Saturday's Chair vote.

Well worth a read - https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/02/21/have-you-noticed-media-pushing-a-national-narrative-of-anti-semitism-today-heres-why/

Worth a read only if you are an online troll who needs justification for their so-called life.

Charles

Jonathan said:

The headline will be " ___________ blown away."

Shurely "Raining on UKIP's parade?"

PlatoSaid

This lady said the same stuff about Bush - so much crazies in one woman. She was on Tucker last night and perfectly sums up a certain type of activist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN-HgXgnXMc

kle4

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

That was the lead story at 6am on Sky News. Oddly it wasn't the lead story on the BBC.

It was David Blunket, not Tony Blair. BBC covered the story as lead item on BBC News at 10pm. Didn't mention the actual figure of compensation, which probably wasn't known at the time.

That's the thing with BBC News, blink and you miss it. Unless it's about Paul Nuttall or the NHS, in which case the story will be repeated over and over again.

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

Oh yes, the man whose killing spree needed to be halted as the police themselves had, at best, murderous elements.

JosiasJessop

AlsoIndigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

As I said yesterday, ignoring him doesn't work. The Milobots will just spam places with his awesomeness. As has happened on here.

People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.

Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.

Challenging with reasoned debate and by putting an argument sensibly, soberly and backed by facts and evidence. Screaming at people and insulting them, never mind punching them in the face, doesnt change minds, it drives people into a bunker where you dont know what they think until they comes out and vote.

Indeed. IMV the vast majority of the anti-Milo stuff is as you describe in your first sentence. However, the loudmouths make the most noise. In fact, I reckon some of the anti-Milo people are attempting to garner fame via controversy, the same way he has garnered it.

After all, Milo himself isn't exactly known for arguing sensibly, soberly and backed by facts and evidence.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, there was an interesting, brief, mention of that in Ian Mortimer's excellent The Time Traveller's Guide to Medieval England (and, ahem, by me in my most recent blog: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/coins-and-money-in-history.html ).

Imagine if, today, working conditions improved drastically due to 30% of the population dying of incurable disease.

JosiasJessop

off-topic:

It appears the Millennium Falcon has reduced drastically in size, although it's still rather good at buzzing other ships:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39048670

Sandpit

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

I think you misunderstand the subtitle. Its not that Penny thinks he should be punched in the face its that she thinks Milo wants to be punched in the face as the ultimate validation of his strategy.

It wasn't just the title, skimming the article there were several references to it being well deserved if Milo and his followers were subjected to physical assault. It's the same mentality that thought it was hilarious when someone got sucker-punched while being interviewed on live TV on Inauguration Day, just because that someone was of the right and those of the left found him offensive.

The way one stands up to the Milos of this world is either to ignore or to engage in reasoned debate. Calling him 'isms' and wanting him beaten up isn't engaging in anything like reasonable debate.

tlg86

kle4 said:

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'

It's good question, how long should a story stay in the cycle for? The news broke after the Six O'clock News but was clearly available by 10pm (I went to bed after the football, so missed it). To be fair it's still on the front of the News page on the BBC website, but we all know the BBC would rather not talk about such a story.

dugarbandier

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

bloody pb liberals

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

dugarbandier said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

bloody pb liberals

I know.
Getting soft in my old age.

Sandpit

PlatoSaid said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

Source material for a hundred movies has happened for real over the last 2yrs. I honestly can't tell if something is real or not anymore without checking. It's reminded me of something Bill Clinton said about House of Cards 'the only thing wrong is that you'd never get an Education Bill passed that fast'.

There's a fascinating analysis on the splurge of anti-Semitism stories that have popped up all over the US media. It's not yet another attack on Trump - it's DNC internecine war over Saturday's Chair vote.

Well worth a read - https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/02/21/have-you-noticed-media-pushing-a-national-narrative-of-anti-semitism-today-heres-why/

Wasn't House of Cards a documentary about the Clintons?

kle4

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'

It's good question, how long should a story stay in the cycle for? The news broke after the Six O'clock News but was clearly available by 10pm (I went to bed after the football, so missed it). To be fair it's still on the front of the News page on the BBC website, but we all know the BBC would rather not talk about such a story.

How much time a story deserves is perhaps a reasonable thing to ask, and indeed criticise. I didn't see either news broadcast, I was just clarifying because the criticism of not giving enough time, or too much to less important matters, is far less serious than outright not covering it or burying it.

PlatoSaid

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

I think you misunderstand the subtitle. Its not that Penny thinks he should be punched in the face its that she thinks Milo wants to be punched in the face as the ultimate validation of his strategy.

It wasn't just the title, skimming the article there were several references to it being well deserved if Milo and his followers were subjected to physical assault. It's the same mentality that thought it was hilarious when someone got sucker-punched while being interviewed on live TV on Inauguration Day, just because that someone was of the right and those of the left found him offensive.

The way one stands up to the Milos of this world is either to ignore or to engage in reasoned debate. Calling him 'isms' and wanting him beaten up isn't engaging in anything like reasonable debate.

I see the Left's own skeletons are falling out of the closet with George Takei saying almost exactly the same thing and Bill Maher saying some extraordinary stuff. I very much doubt this will have any impact as ranks close around them.

Roger

matt said:

PlatoSaid said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

Source material for a hundred movies has happened for real over the last 2yrs. I honestly can't tell if something is real or not anymore without checking. It's reminded me of something Bill Clinton said about House of Cards 'the only thing wrong is that you'd never get an Education Bill passed that fast'.

There's a fascinating analysis on the splurge of anti-Semitism stories that have popped up all over the US media. It's not yet another attack on Trump - it's DNC internecine war over Saturday's Chair vote.

Well worth a read - https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/02/21/have-you-noticed-media-pushing-a-national-narrative-of-anti-semitism-today-heres-why/

Worth a read only if you are an online troll who needs justification for their so-called life.

I'm sorry but you're right either Plato has taken leave of her senses or she's a complete moron.

CarlottaVance

Talking of electoral duties, I was Returning Officer in the Oxford Union one election and had to help a very old voter who was partially sighted vote. Going through the list of candidates at one name he demanded "Is that the Jew boy?" Awkward pause, then "Vote for him".

SquareRoot

I see Chris Bryant..edit and Ben Bradshaw had forgotten to take his pills yesterday.. Blame the Russkies

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

Talking of electoral duties, I was Returning Officer in the Oxford Union one election and had to help a very old voter who was partially sighted vote. Going through the list of candidates at one name he demanded "Is that the Jew boy?" Awkward pause, then "Vote for him".

I was at a polling station and a very long bearded Rabbi asked me if I could help him as his sight wasn't too good so I went into the little booth with him and asked where he wanted his cross. He looked at me like I was mad and said 'Conservative of course!'

PlatoSaid

SquareRoot said:

I see Chris Bryant has forgotten to take his pills this morning

I've always found him really an unattractive character - he's frequently rude, self-righteous in a puritanical way and too full of fake outrage. I can't imagine him as a vicar no matter how hard I try.

tlg86

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'

It's good question, how long should a story stay in the cycle for? The news broke after the Six O'clock News but was clearly available by 10pm (I went to bed after the football, so missed it). To be fair it's still on the front of the News page on the BBC website, but we all know the BBC would rather not talk about such a story.

How much time a story deserves is perhaps a reasonable thing to ask, and indeed criticise. I didn't see either news broadcast, I was just clarifying because the criticism of not giving enough time, or too much to less important matters, is far less serious than outright not covering it or burying it.

Fair enough, I agree. The other night it got to ten past six and having interviewed the health editor (following the usual piece about the NHS), the anchor turned to the camera and I really thought she was going to say "and now the News."

Scott_P

Sandpit said:

It wasn't just the title, skimming the article there were several references to it being well deserved if Milo and his followers were subjected to physical assault. It's the same mentality that thought it was hilarious when someone got sucker-punched while being interviewed on live TV on Inauguration Day, just because that someone was of the right and those of the left found him offensive.

You should read the article.

The whole point of it is that Milo was shut down, not by leftists threatening physical violence, but by the right deciding he had breached one of their cherished taboos.

And the Milo fanbois who thought they were players, but now find they are pawns