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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    ?????
  • justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    Dont be silly - you are better than that
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    The petitioners say they had an appointment, and as one was an MP I suspect knew the rules.

    I suspect that more Copeland voters read the paper than listen to PMQ's.

    A local election for local people, on local issues.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490
    TGOHF said:

    Bit late..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/22/germany-calls-eu-scrap-human-rights-safeguards-migrants-can/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "Germany has called for the European Union to scrap human rights safeguards so migrants can be deported to countries currently considered unsafe.

    Under the plan, asylum-seekers who cross the Mediterranean illegally could be sent back to transit countries such as Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria while their cases are considered.

    The proposals come as a leaked German government paper warned that as many as 5.9m people could seek to enter the EU from countries around the Mediterranean."

    Ah, those civilized European values we will be leaving behind........

  • justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    O/T Ian Stewart has just been convicted of the murder of author Helen Bailey (unsurprisingly, IMHO).
  • Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    Indeed, that’s far more likely the reality of events, given the circumstances revealed so far.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Great to see Milo toppled by his own side. Strange that it is only now that it's happened. Milo was one of the class of true professional trolls like Katie Hopkins, who have these controversial opinions that spring out of nowhere and get more extreme over time, simply as part of their persona. At least with other 'contrarians' like Farage or Mensch, you get the sense that they genuinely believe the majority of what they are arguing.

    Incidentally I don't believe that the old maxim of ignoring a troll like you should ignore a bully is really possible. I've never actually seen a case IRL where a bully stopped bullying because you ignored them, it is always better to confront the problem. Likewise, for trolls it's never seemed clear to me that ignoring people like Milo or Hopkins is going to stop them. I'm not saying hysterical reactions are the way forward, but rather that it is better to engage, disprove, and discredit them (as has happened with Milo here).

    The question is: where does Yiannopoulos go from here? Disowned and humiliated by the American Right, perhaps he could reinvent himself as a man of the Left. What about marketing himself as a sadder-and-wiser figure, misguided by a lust for attention but fundamentally always 'a liberal at heart'? It might work.
    Huffingopoulos?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    All Labour's focus has to be today is to get the conversation onto the NHS. It is the one subject they poll OK in.
    As for the technicalities of whether the petition was blocked or accepted or not - noone is going to care either way. Labour have their front cover of the local paper and Corbyn has shown he isn't a complete idiot by sticking to the NHS in PMQs (I assume).

    Job done for Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    The petitioners say they had an appointment, and as one was an MP I suspect knew the rules.

    I suspect that more Copeland voters read the paper than listen to PMQ's.

    A local election for local people, on local issues.
    A local paper who it is now clear were wrong and took up the spin of a Labour activist as the PM has just confirmed on the BBC and which the local paper will have to report tomorrow anyway
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    edited February 2017
    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.

    Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    So poisonous the Tories will get a swing towards them in 2 by elections tomorrow since the last general election and now have a bigger poll lead than any winning Tory general election margin since 1983
  • justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    The petitioners say they had an appointment, and as one was an MP I suspect knew the rules.

    I suspect that more Copeland voters read the paper than listen to PMQ's.

    A local election for local people, on local issues.
    A local paper who it is now clear were wrong and took up the spin of a Labour activist as the PM has just confirmed on the BBC and which the local paper will have to report tomorrow anyway
    Won't reporting restrictions be in place tommorow ?

    I'm sure the correction will be in the paper... page 28 para 3 if there needs to be one. And it won't be in tommorow.

    Absolubte truth and politics ceased to be bedfellows a long time ago anyway.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited February 2017

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "British Isil fighter was 'enemy of state' who should never have been given £1m Guantanamo payout, says Tony Blair's anti-terror chief"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/22/british-isil-fighter-enemy-state-should-never-have-given-1m/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    The "Brown bounce" was merely a function of "thank fvck Blair has gone". It was not a long-lived phenomenon.
  • Pulpstar said:

    All Labour's focus has to be today is to get the conversation onto the NHS. It is the one subject they poll OK in.
    As for the technicalities of whether the petition was blocked or accepted or not - noone is going to care either way. Labour have their front cover of the local paper and Corbyn has shown he isn't a complete idiot by sticking to the NHS in PMQs (I assume).

    Job done for Labour.


    If the only thing Corbyn can ask the PM about is the NHS Labour are in deep trouble.

    'Sticking it to the PM?:

    https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/834378542901231616
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    The petitioners say they had an appointment, and as one was an MP I suspect knew the rules.

    I suspect that more Copeland voters read the paper than listen to PMQ's.

    A local election for local people, on local issues.
    A local paper who it is now clear were wrong and took up the spin of a Labour activist as the PM has just confirmed on the BBC and which the local paper will have to report tomorrow anyway
    Won't reporting restrictions be in place tommorow ?

    I'm sure the correction will be in the paper... page 28 para 3 if there needs to be one. And it won't be in tommorow.

    Absolubte truth and politics ceased to be bedfellows a long time ago anyway.
    If they do not report it tomorrow and the Tories lose Copeland narrowly they would certainly have a case to report the paper to the Press Complaints Commission
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    All Labour's focus has to be today is to get the conversation onto the NHS. It is the one subject they poll OK in.
    As for the technicalities of whether the petition was blocked or accepted or not - noone is going to care either way. Labour have their front cover of the local paper and Corbyn has shown he isn't a complete idiot by sticking to the NHS in PMQs (I assume).

    Job done for Labour.

    That's my take,too. Hopefully, it won't be enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Painful to admit but Blair has some very good points in that letter.

    The Daily Mail looks bang to rights to me.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    I know, a former PM blaming a newspaper for controlling his actions!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    For newspapers. tomorrow is another day. What they said or did yesterday is irrelevant.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    Five minutes in Europe and already our wicked ways are infecting them

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/834378601592188933
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
    He probably would have done if he was against the Tory equivalent of Corbyn (IDS) however.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
    He probably would have done if he was against the Tory equivalent of Corbyn (IDS) however.
    Not his personal ratings no though Labour may still have led the polls
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Good on Blair.

    As someone who was not in the UK during the whole Iraq War aftermath, and even as a libertarian, I have never fully comprehended the hate he generates, but I do accept it as a clear reality.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    I'll give Blair this: It is a very difficult decision to make and I understand why bringing cases against some of these people is difficult.

    What I have no time for is the bs about him being a really nice person and all the rest of it. That was blatantly rubbish that they made up. They didn't know him at all and as such should not have made a comment on what he was like.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Painful to admit but Blair has some very good points in that letter.

    The Daily Mail looks bang to rights to me.

    Typical Daily Mail. I thought when this all blew up last night that I had a vague memory of DM leading the charge about Gitmo, but couldn't be bothered to google it. Thanks Tony.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
  • CD13 said:

    For newspapers. tomorrow is another day. What they said or did yesterday is irrelevant.

    They have a lot in common with the Met office :wink:
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    MTimT said:

    Good on Blair.

    As someone who was not in the UK during the whole Iraq War aftermath, and even as a libertarian, I have never fully comprehended the hate he generates, but I do accept it as a clear reality.
    Because after you listen to Blair for a bit you feel like this
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExTsNqw76FM
  • justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Given May is so poisonous, how far do you expect the Tory vote share to fall in Copeland & Stoke?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.

    Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."
    Do we even know what happened in the ward in Basingstoke? Usually there's local factors behind such unusual looking swings, such as a scandal that resulted in the resignation of the councillor which caused the vacancy.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    First ever televised PMQs Thatcher vs Kinnock

    https://youtu.be/6CiNqfEJLsw
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    Yep - loads of people enjoy just voting for the government come general election time.

    Britain's semi-apathetic voter main hobby.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Did we ever find out who Geoffrey was?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
    He probably would have done if he was against the Tory equivalent of Corbyn (IDS) however.
    We'll agree to disagree there I think. Corbyn v IDS would have been a close run thing.
    I accept he wouldn't have remained popular for long.

    Don't get me wrong I'm no apologist for his premiership just pointing out the similarities between two unelected PMs with apparently similar MOs and hence the potential pitfalls for May.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.

    Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."
    Do we even know what happened in the ward in Basingstoke? Usually there's local factors behind such unusual looking swings, such as a scandal that resulted in the resignation of the councillor which caused the vacancy.
    Labour came very close to winning this ward in both 2014 and 2011 - though they have really romped home this time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited February 2017
    Not sure Milne & Co have helped Corbyn, can't imagine Alistair Campbell failing to drop a little bombshell about a Labour gain from the Tories in Basingstoke. May say something about Milne's general uselessness as a political operator.

    Missed opportunity for a good unexpected TV & radio news soundbite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    Yep - loads of people enjoy just voting for the government come general election time.

    Britain's semi-apathetic voter main hobby.
    It's very unusual for governments not to lose ground in local elections mid-term, In fact, the Conservatives' overall position on local councils is very strong for a government which is 7 years old.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Interesting article in NS on the FN's strong support among millennials. Interesting how it's the reverse in the UK, with UKIP drawing much more strongly from the old.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/02/french-millennials-marching-behind-marine-le-pen

    While anti-immigrant sentiment is obviously a big driver behind it, more general anti-globalisation sentiment (and euroscepticism) seem to be the biggest driver amongst the youth FN vote. I think UKIP is still seen by many young people as stuffed with old retired colonel tories, whereas MLP has been able to more convincingly go left on economics.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fake news. PM confirms health petition was delivered and received by No 10 yesterday

    If they turned up without an appointment they'd have been refused entry to Downing St by the policeman at the gate.

    So either they left it with the policeman (and missed their photo op outside the big black door) or the MP involved left it with the PM's office later.

    Job well done by the PM either way.
    The petitioners say they had an appointment, and as one was an MP I suspect knew the rules.

    I suspect that more Copeland voters read the paper than listen to PMQ's.

    A local election for local people, on local issues.
    A local paper who it is now clear were wrong and took up the spin of a Labour activist as the PM has just confirmed on the BBC and which the local paper will have to report tomorrow anyway
    Won't reporting restrictions be in place tommorow ?

    I'm sure the correction will be in the paper... page 28 para 3 if there needs to be one. And it won't be in tommorow.

    Absolubte truth and politics ceased to be bedfellows a long time ago anyway.
    why would they need to issue a correction? The story is quite clear that the petitioners were refused admission (despite an agreed appointment and including an MP), but that the police at the gate took the petition after a delay.

    http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Cumbrian-hospital-petition-not-allowed-to-be-presented-at-Downing-Street-5c3720cb-851d-491d-9d66-4f2291334b71-ds#.WK1-DZkWM4s.twitter

    What is it that they need to retract?
  • Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.

    Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."
    Do we even know what happened in the ward in Basingstoke? Usually there's local factors behind such unusual looking swings, such as a scandal that resulted in the resignation of the councillor which caused the vacancy.
    Doesn't appear to have been any scandal:

    http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15022805.Tory_councillor_resigns_position/
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
    He probably would have done if he was against the Tory equivalent of Corbyn (IDS) however.
    Not his personal ratings no though Labour may still have led the polls
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1559991/Gordon-Browns-poll-ratings-soar.html

    Food for thought
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    Indeed. You would have thought Tony Blair would have known the 2010 Govt. was the Coalition, not Conservative....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    Brown did not have ratings anywhere near as high as May's 6 months into his premiership
    He probably would have done if he was against the Tory equivalent of Corbyn (IDS) however.
    Not his personal ratings no though Labour may still have led the polls
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1559991/Gordon-Browns-poll-ratings-soar.html

    Food for thought
    That was 2 months into Brown's premiership not 6 months in. Although I agree had Brown taken over in 2003, 6 years into the government's term as May has, he would likely have beaten Howard in 2005
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    Interesting article in NS on the FN's strong support among millennials. Interesting how it's the reverse in the UK, with UKIP drawing much more strongly from the old.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/02/french-millennials-marching-behind-marine-le-pen

    While anti-immigrant sentiment is obviously a big driver behind it, more general anti-globalisation sentiment (and euroscepticism) seem to be the biggest driver amongst the youth FN vote. I think UKIP is still seen by many young people as stuffed with old retired colonel tories, whereas MLP has been able to more convincingly go left on economics.

    FN does best of all with the middle aged though, Macron best with the young and Fillon the old
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited February 2017
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Senior,

    "No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"

    Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?

    I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.

    Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."
    Do we even know what happened in the ward in Basingstoke? Usually there's local factors behind such unusual looking swings, such as a scandal that resulted in the resignation of the councillor which caused the vacancy.
    Labour came very close to winning this ward in both 2014 and 2011 - though they have really romped home this time.
    I did a bit of digging and the councillor resigned on 5th Jan for no given reason, looks like he genuinely did just want to spend more time with his family.
    http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15022805.Tory_councillor_resigns_position/

    The only news article in the local paper was one where Labour were campaigning against a possible school closure in the ward, as well as the introduction of fortnightly bin collections. There's also an ongoing row about proposed rising parking charges in the town centre. Maybe these are what swung the vote behind Lab this time - straightforward local politics resulting a a win for the local Opposition.
    http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15100870.Leaflet_sparks_spat_in_lead_up_to_ballot/
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    The council by elections Blair was losing to Hague were ones Labour should not have won in the 1st place .
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,554
    edited February 2017

    Indeed. You would have thought Tony Blair would have known the 2010 Govt. was the Coalition, not Conservative....
    This is more evidence that Tony Blair is starting to get more involved in UK politics.

    What with his recent speech and Lord Mandelson's daily activities it shows that the big push is underway.
  • Mr. HYUFD, assuming (as here) the French elderly turn out more, that's good for Fillon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    Yep - loads of people enjoy just voting for the government come general election time.

    Britain's semi-apathetic voter main hobby.
    Yes when Labour start gaining parliamentary rather than council by elections is when the government should start to worry, at the moment Labour cannot comfortably even hold its current parliamentary seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    Mr. HYUFD, assuming (as here) the French elderly turn out more, that's good for Fillon.

    Certainly to get to the runoff yes
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    GIN1138 said:

    Is there provision for elections to be called off/postponed if the weather conditions are too bad, etc?

    An election can be abandoned on the day of polling in case of "Force Majeure" i.e. flood, storm, earthquake, meteorite impact, treacle pudding, etc. I'm not sure how precisely it is defined, and I don't think it's ever been done in real life.

  • Scott_P said:
    Not on BF. Le Pen still off the pace at 3.8.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    The council by elections Blair was losing to Hague were ones Labour should not have won in the 1st place .
    Yet in 2001 Labour held many of the parliamentary seats containing some of those self same council seats they lost in by elections
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    The council by elections Blair was losing to Hague were ones Labour should not have won in the 1st place .
    Yet in 2001 Labour held many of the parliamentary seats containing some of those self same council seats they lost in by elections
    Tbf after 17 years in government the Tories had been hollowed out in local government. Even Hertsmere went Labour in the 90's. We haven't made that mistake again.
  • NEW THREAD

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    28.5% turnout, 824 Lab, 472 Con, 42 Lib Dem. Wrinklebury Lab gain.

    https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/winklebury-by-election
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    When real election results show evidence that contradict the ratings , sensible people begin to suspect that the ratings are wrong .
    That includes election results that show Lib Dem votes falling?
    You look at election results as a whole . They all show Conservative vote falling , the majority show Lib Dem support increasing . Conservatives have now defended 8 seats this year held 2 lost 6 1 to Lab 4 to Lib Dem 1 to Ind
    Blair lost council by elections every week against Hague but at the 2001 general election he was re elected by a landslide.
    The council by elections Blair was losing to Hague were ones Labour should not have won in the 1st place .
    Yet in 2001 Labour held many of the parliamentary seats containing some of those self same council seats they lost in by elections
    Tbf after 17 years in government the Tories had been hollowed out in local government. Even Hertsmere went Labour in the 90's. We haven't made that mistake again.
    True but in the 1999 local elections the Tories won councils like Carlisle, Derbyshire Dales and Welwyn Hatfield none of which they won at the 2001 general election
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    JohnLoony said:

    Did we ever find out who Geoffrey was?

    Philip I think.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,092
    Final result of the voodoo poll in the Whitehaven News: LD 1103, Lab 931, Con 688, UKIP 299, Green 69, Ind 42.
  • justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    Dont be silly - you are better than that
    No, he isn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    MattW said:

    There's a touch of Gordon Brown when it comes to Mrs May.

    https://twitter.com/GwynneMP/status/834329709089529856

    He said. She said. No 10 says they didn't follow the procedure. They say they did.

    Who knows?
    It looks bad to turn people away and with sensitive stuff people will bend procedure as much as they can to allow people to submit their views, so I'm inclined to believe No.10 on this one. Stunt.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,859
    edited February 2017
    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn will be bigging this up for years, if he survives this week.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834368967644966913

    A swing to Labour of 20.8%. Must have been local circumstances surely? No more meaningful than the LibDem gain in Sunderland earlier this month.
    So it's not all 'LibDem surge' then?
    No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote .
    I expect that's why she has better ratings than her party, let alone Corbyn or whatshisname...
    These things change very quickly though. Remember the Brown bounce? Some of the micro-management and apparent inertia isn't entirely dissimilar. Although she is up agains Corbyn rather than Cameron I suppose.
    She's not going to be up against Jezza for ever though, is she? McDonnell is quite obviously a cunt of the first order but he would do way better in the polls against May than Jezza just by dint of being less stupid and lazy.
  • Postal votes will be worth double what they usually are if the weather is bad in Stoke and Copeland on Thursday. This is probably best for the incumbant Labour party.

  • slade said:

    Final result of the voodoo poll in the Whitehaven News: LD 1103, Lab 931, Con 688, UKIP 299, Green 69, Ind 42.

    Was it a self selecting internet poll.

    Are Lib Dems more internet savvy?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,092

    slade said:

    Final result of the voodoo poll in the Whitehaven News: LD 1103, Lab 931, Con 688, UKIP 299, Green 69, Ind 42.

    Was it a self selecting internet poll.

    Are Lib Dems more internet savvy?
    Yes - and you could vote early and often. The Lib Dems took an early lead then Labour caught up and finally the Lib Dems sprinted for the line.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    PewDiePie is trolling

    NSFW

    https://youtu.be/L9SFQTrfUwc
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