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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of u

With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow.
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Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?
Edit - and on behalf of @Tories4Corbyn clearly any loss in either seat can be attributed to the extraordinary weather conditions and not at all to the 113 point gap in approval with Mrs May among the over 65s
Mike Gapes@MikeGapes
Just got my first ever Formal Written Reprimand letter from the Chief Whip. It's now in a frame. But long way to go to match Jeremy.
(((StephenDaisley)))@JournoStephen
(((StephenDaisley))) Retweeted Mike Gapes
I can't think of a higher honour than being rebuked by the people killing the Labour Party.
Gordon Macintyre-Kemp, who is behind a new fundraising campaign for a second referendum, put more than £50,000 into a social media consultancy that ended with net assets of £594.
Intelligise Limited, which was based at Mr Macintyre-Kemp’s home in Jordanhill in Glasgow, was “dissolved via voluntary strike-off” in February 2016, the Herald can reveal.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105527.Business_for_Scotland_boss_admits_losing_money_on_his_business/?ref=twtrec
Will they change the name to 'Failed Business for Scotland'?
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2014/06/who-do-business-for-scotland-represent.html
In Stoke if I have been paying attention Labour have the strongest local activist base so a gale or snowstorm would presumably be in their favour.
In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/
https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ
Is this the weather or Jezza's leadership we're talking about?
Perhaps a lesson for the Liberal .Metropolitan Elite though - there's been a debate about why Copeland is depopulating, hard to recruit key NHS staff in Whitehaven. If the LME have to try to work when it's rainy and windy, they might understand the problem a little more?
Good luck to all those involved on the ground, as the weather adds another wild factor to the most unpredictable by-election in years - at least if Labour lose they'll have a ready-to-go excuse why they lost which isn't Jeremy Corbyn!
Apparently nowadays the Met Office, and presumably other British forecasters tend to overplay bad weather, to avoid a ‘Michael Fish moment’!
I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.
By elections: it's Doris Wot Won It.
But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.
Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.
Through the ether ..
P Nuttall - Caught Silly Point - Bowled Stoke's Electorate - 0
Rain Stopped Play ....
The hardy folk of Cumbria all know that a bit of rain, wind and snow doesn't mean the cows milk themselves, some jobs have to be done whatever the weather. Oh, and nuclear power stations run on the same principle! Expect a queue of Land Rovers and even tractors at the polling stations of Copeland tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/02/22/if-economics-cant-forecast-a-crisis-then-theres-something-deeply-wrong-with-economics/
were scraping the bottom of the barrelhad very high turnout my wife was offering car duties and got 2 requests. One of the two was so dottled that we still don't know which way she voted. She seemed to find yes and no almost impossibly confusing!https://goo.gl/images/NGqQjG
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/834180531067691008
The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!
That's entertainment ..
People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.
Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.
President Duterte has the right approach,
Might the adverse weather bolster the blues and yellows?
It may harm Labour the most, due to their voters often not bothering anyway.
There's a fascinating analysis on the splurge of anti-Semitism stories that have popped up all over the US media. It's not yet another attack on Trump - it's DNC internecine war over Saturday's Chair vote.
Well worth a read - https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/02/21/have-you-noticed-media-pushing-a-national-narrative-of-anti-semitism-today-heres-why/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN-HgXgnXMc
After all, Milo himself isn't exactly known for arguing sensibly, soberly and backed by facts and evidence.
Imagine if, today, working conditions improved drastically due to 30% of the population dying of incurable disease.
It appears the Millennium Falcon has reduced drastically in size, although it's still rather good at buzzing other ships:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39048670
The way one stands up to the Milos of this world is either to ignore or to engage in reasoned debate. Calling him 'isms' and wanting him beaten up isn't engaging in anything like reasonable debate.
Getting soft in my old age.
The whole point of it is that Milo was shut down, not by leftists threatening physical violence, but by the right deciding he had breached one of their cherished taboos.
And the Milo fanbois who thought they were players, but now find they are pawns