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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs
The latest Ipsos MORI poll is out and has more polling numbers to fuel the Corbyn must go narrative.
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Bank looked for evidence of whether loans to president were underpinned by guarantees from Moscow, Guardian learns
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/16/deutsche-bank-examined-trump-account-for-russia-links?CMP=share_btn_tw
Party %
CON 36.9
LAB 30.4
What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
It were done quickly"
"A lot is is hanging on the two by-elections a week today. If LAB loses one of them then Corbyn will be in even more trouble."
And still prove totally un-shiftable.
Prof Helmut "It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016" Norpoth has had a good year.
Tom Harris @MrTCHarris 29m29 minutes ago
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I just filed the most controversial article I’ve ever written. Stand by (while I get my crash helmet on).
Con Maj 200. Lab 139 seats.
Con majority of 206
Con 428, Lab 139, LDs 6, SNP 56, UKIP and Greens 0, PC 3.
That's on 650 seats
On 600 seats
Tory Maj of 218
Con 409, Lab 119, LD 3, SNP 51-
Unfortunately for Corbyn, general elections are.
I bet Ma Beckett never thought for a million years that nominating Corbyn could potentially lead to her seat becoming potentially vulnerable.
Blue_rog Posts: 1,446
February 15
I can see the left metropolitan elite moving to the LDs, eviscerating the ABC1 supports of Labour. Where does that leave the party?
They need to find another USL that distinguishes them from both LD and UKIP and is attractive to the CDEs
We are rightly cautious on going off anecdote, but we don't have many JC believers on here so we need to speak to people who are and have been. It's not whether we think Corbyn is any good that matters, it's those who've voted for him before - and I'm not seeing the signs that others are, that there's any real movement here.
http://tinyurl.com/zxlgv4t
He'll be releasing a statement tomorrow saying he was there, sure as eggs is eggs.
Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
Perhaps someone should look through his letterbox :-)
They still telephone poll, don't they?
Surely, they've learned that people will not tell them the truth using this method.
Corbyn and UKIP are both a source of ridicule. They will do better among these respondents in the secrecy of a polling booth.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/16/libdems-call-cops-vote-snell-go-hell-muslim-texts/
Practical outcome is that anyone capable of taking Corbyn down wont try, because they are the same people that are capable of winning the leadership election that would follow.
In this poll
Aged 65:74 - Tory lead of 34% over Labour
Over 75s: - Tory lead of 37% over Labour.
At GE 2015 the Tory lead over Labour with the overs 65s was 24%
Forget Labour being the reds. Politics now is the Blues v the Norwegian Blues.....
The 41-year-old is widely considered to be one of the best referees in football, and he took charge of the Euro 2016 final, the Champions League final and the FA Cup final last season.
In December, Clattenburg said he would consider officiating in the Chinese Super League.
An official announcement is expected this afternoon.
He is expected to leave his role before the next round of Premier League fixtures which starts on 25 February.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38993655
Effective competitive tax disadvantage.
It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.
I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.
Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
UKIP seem to be on the run at Stoke, Labour ve Lib Dems next week on the cards, probably identifies the Lib Dem "anger" today, complaints and wanting apologies from Labour for those texts, whatever they may say. .
Roughly:
Copeland;
LAB +££££
Con +-0
UKIP -££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££
LD/Other +££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££
Stoke;
Lab +££££
UKIP -£££££
Con/LD +£££££££££££££££££££
Con is now consistently at least as far ahead of Lab with C2DE than with ABC1, while Lab lead with degree holders (which is partly an age thing, and partly perhaps a public-sector recruitment/employment thing - but only partly). Con leads also now in North and Midlands/Wales not far off national figures while Lab leads strongly in London.
If these trends are maintained and the parties are prepared to act on them (or, even more so, if Con is prepared to act and Lab misses the threat), we could see some huge swings in traditionally Labour seats which will take a lot of people very much by surprise.
Where's this nonsense about "public sector middle managers" come from ? Do you know one, are you one, would you like to be one ?
I just wonder how many public sector middle managers make up Stephen Timms' 35,000 majority here in East Ham ? In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives. I don't draw any conclusions from that but I do observe it.
By the way, Baxter Lab 35, Con 32, LD 21 and the only winner is Nicola S.
NuGen made the statement after Mrs May spoke about the proposals for a new power plant at Moorside, near Sellafield, during a visit to Copeland yesterday.
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Moorside-company-welcomes-Prime-Ministers-nuclear-comments-fc36c1f4-2b3d-48fd-9238-f56f282c227e-ds
Mrs May talked about the local NHS and the proposed Moorside nuclear development, which she said the Conservatives are committed to, and recognise its importance.
“A number of issues have been raised about the NHS, in particular the West Cumberland Hospital,” she said. “There is no truth whatsoever to close the A&E at the West Cumberland Hospital.
"Labour have made claims about what I have said about maternity services. The claims they made are misleading.’’
It had previously been claimed Mrs May had refused to intervene to stop consultant-led maternity services being removed from Whitehaven.
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/VIDEO-Prime-Minister-Theresa-May-visits-Copeland-in-run-up-to-by-election-e00b05d9-c18f-4d3b-a687-da6ad2994791-ds
Oddly, though, his comments are still worth reading and he's remained sensible.
So I doubt it's going to be a deep and long lasting conversion.
https://youtu.be/3jdPGhq2QbQ
Another datapoint for the 2020 analysis in May.
Con - Councillor from S Gloucs.
Green - ex Bristol West candidate.
Lab - ex Parish Councillor, Diversity Officer with NHS.
LD - ex Bristol West MP & junior Minister.
Not a very inspiring line up to be honest.
Net Satisfied (North, exl Scotland)
May: +27
Corbyn: -35
Net Satisfied May/Corbyn (diff May vs Corbyn)
Degree: -3 / -43 (+40)
Other Qual: +19 / -30 (+49)
No qual: +35 / -45 (+80)
Telegraph says Bojo putting a fund together to combat Russia via soft power (support for Baltics, prevent cyber hacking etc)
Hard to see how Trump can remain allied with May and with Putin. The UK and Russia haven't shown even the slightest bit of thaw in relations. Either Trump will abandon Putin and commit to NATO (the preference of the GOP) or he will stick with Putin which will mean no special relationship with the UK.
http://www.britac.ac.uk/blog/should-britain-banish-referendums
Economics is the friendliest to conservatives, with 4.5 liberal professors for each conservative. History comes in at 33.5 to 1 !!!!
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/6/liberal-professors-outnumber-conservatives-12-1/