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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working class

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs

The latest Ipsos MORI poll is out and has more polling numbers to fuel the Corbyn must go narrative.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    the scary bit there is 24% of the population are satisfied with Corbyn? Who are those people?
  • Deutsche Bank examined Trump's account for Russia links

    Bank looked for evidence of whether loans to president were underpinned by guarantees from Moscow, Guardian learns

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/16/deutsche-bank-examined-trump-account-for-russia-links?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • eek said:

    the scary bit there is 24% of the population are satisfied with Corbyn? Who are those people?
    Tories4Corbyn and Labour's core vote
  • The red team doesn't care about C2DEs so will look with some satisfaction at being only 8 points behind for the ABC1s.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Till 2018 at least, I hope.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    eek said:

    the scary bit there is 24% of the population are satisfied with Corbyn? Who are those people?
    That's the problem with those "donkey with a red rosette" sort of places - there is never a donkey around when you need one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    2015:

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4

    What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
  • "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well
    It were done quickly"
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    "A lot is is hanging on the two by-elections a week today. If LAB loses one of them then Corbyn will be in even more trouble."

    And still prove totally un-shiftable.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited February 2017
    Provided Corbyn wins at least one by election he will be safe. Interesting the Tories are now doing better with C2DEs than ABC1s although not as much as UKIP. Labour now do better with ABC1s than C2DEs though not as much as the LDs. Labour are no longer a working class party, that is UKIP and it is the LDs not the Tories who are now a party of the middle class
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    The working man has identified his enemy, the rentier boss-class running-dog faction calling itself Lib Dem in 21st century Britain.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    2015:

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4

    What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
    Not to mention the Lebo-Norpoth Model.

    Prof Helmut "It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016" Norpoth has had a good year.
  • tease:

    Tom Harris ‏@MrTCHarris 29m29 minutes ago
    More
    I just filed the most controversial article I’ve ever written. Stand by (while I get my crash helmet on).
  • The red team doesn't care about C2DEs so will look with some satisfaction at being only 8 points behind for the ABC1s.

    Not entirely accurate. Corbyn's rent-a-clown gang might not care about WWC, but people like Crudas do.
  • eek said:

    the scary bit there is 24% of the population are satisfied with Corbyn? Who are those people?
    Corbynista. But it aint 24%. Just don't believe it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    2015:

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4

    What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
    With UKIP on 8.5%, Lib Dems on 9%, and Greens 2% that leads to

    Con majority of 206

    Con 428, Lab 139, LDs 6, SNP 56, UKIP and Greens 0, PC 3.

    That's on 650 seats

    On 600 seats

    Tory Maj of 218

    Con 409, Lab 119, LD 3, SNP 51-
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    The red team doesn't care about C2DEs so will look with some satisfaction at being only 8 points behind for the ABC1s.

    Not entirely accurate. Corbyn's rent-a-clown gang might not care about WWC, but people like Crudas do.
    Fortunately for Corbyn by-elections are not really about the leadership of the country.
    Unfortunately for Corbyn, general elections are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited February 2017
    Derby south stays red on a UNS 49.9 - 24.4 split. But when I've examined East midlands subsamples, it turns blue.

    I bet Ma Beckett never thought for a million years that nominating Corbyn could potentially lead to her seat becoming potentially vulnerable.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The red team doesn't care about C2DEs so will look with some satisfaction at being only 8 points behind for the ABC1s.

    Not entirely accurate. Corbyn's rent-a-clown gang might not care about WWC, but people like Crudas do.
    Fortunately for Corbyn by-elections are not really about the leadership of the country.
    Unfortunately for Corbyn, general elections are.
    I really can't see Corbyn being in post by GE. Unless Tories cut and run early. The tide is washing out on the anointed one.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited February 2017
    I mentioned this move a couple of threads ago

    Blue_rog Posts: 1,446
    February 15
    I can see the left metropolitan elite moving to the LDs, eviscerating the ABC1 supports of Labour. Where does that leave the party?

    They need to find another USL that distinguishes them from both LD and UKIP and is attractive to the CDEs
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Provided Corbyn wins at least one by election he will be safe. Interesting the Tories are now doing better with C2DEs than ABC1s although not as much as UKIP. Labour now do better with ABC1s than C2DEs though not as much as the LDs. Labour are no longer a working class party, that is UKIP and it is the LDs not the Tories who are now a party of the middle class

    No amount of byelection defeats would shift tbe limpet like Jezza. He goes at a time of his own choosing. He had the brass neck to withstand a no confidence vote by a substantial majority of his MPs just last year.



  • Pulpstar said:

    Derby south stays red on a UNS 49.9 - 24.4 split. But when I've examined East midlands subsamples, it turns blue.

    I bet Ma Beckett never thought for a million years that nominating Corbyn could potentially lead to her seat becoming potentially vulnerable.

    Time for the House of Lords?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    HYUFD said:

    Provided Corbyn wins at least one by election he will be safe. Interesting the Tories are now doing better with C2DEs than ABC1s although not as much as UKIP. Labour now do better with ABC1s than C2DEs though not as much as the LDs. Labour are no longer a working class party, that is UKIP and it is the LDs not the Tories who are now a party of the middle class

    No amount of byelection defeats would shift tbe limpet like Jezza. He goes at a time of his own choosing. He had the brass neck to withstand a no confidence vote by a substantial majority of his MPs just last year.
    You have to admire the man.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    The LibDem/UKIP crossover for third (UK) place looks firmly established
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561
    We had our budget meeting last night, and I spoke to the most Corbynite of the Labour councillors to take the temperature - Corbyn is only in danger if people like her start losing faith. She's still solidly behind him, fed up with the right wing agitators, and would campaign for him without hesitation in a further leadership contest.

    We are rightly cautious on going off anecdote, but we don't have many JC believers on here so we need to speak to people who are and have been. It's not whether we think Corbyn is any good that matters, it's those who've voted for him before - and I'm not seeing the signs that others are, that there's any real movement here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited February 2017

    The working man has identified his enemy, the rentier boss-class running-dog faction calling itself Lib Dem in 21st century Britain.

    OGH is of course the epitome of the bourgeoisie. Pro immigration, pro free trade, socially liberal, formerly pro austerity LDs are not exactly made to appeal to the working class, no
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    Provided Corbyn wins at least one by election he will be safe. Interesting the Tories are now doing better with C2DEs than ABC1s although not as much as UKIP. Labour now do better with ABC1s than C2DEs though not as much as the LDs. Labour are no longer a working class party, that is UKIP and it is the LDs not the Tories who are now a party of the middle class

    No amount of byelection defeats would shift tbe limpet like Jezza. He goes at a time of his own choosing. He had the brass neck to withstand a no confidence vote by a substantial majority of his MPs just last year.



    Agreed
  • tease:

    Tom Harris ‏@MrTCHarris 29m29 minutes ago
    More
    I just filed the most controversial article I’ve ever written. Stand by (while I get my crash helmet on).

    'Why I'm staying in the Labour party'?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Clearly Labour isn't doing enough with regard to gender-neutral bathrooms. Working class voters are turning to UKIP as a result.
  • 'Ukip's Paul Nuttall fails to turn up for hustings in Stoke amid Hillsborough controversy'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxlgv4t

    He'll be releasing a statement tomorrow saying he was there, sure as eggs is eggs.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    An astonishing 41% of Labour supporters are SATISIFED with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? It's no wonder they're called the loony left.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    I actually think 0% of the people really believe Corbyn is doing a good job. Even the most ardent Corbynista would jump at the chance to have a different left wing leader in place. They just know that for the moment there is no assurance of that if Corbyn goes.

    Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2017

    'Ukip's Paul Nuttall fails to turn up for hustings in Stoke amid Hillsborough controversy'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxlgv4t

    He'll be releasing a statement tomorrow saying he was there, sure as eggs is eggs.

    https://twitter.com/PSbook/status/832208282194436097

    Perhaps someone should look through his letterbox :-)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ipsos Mori had Remain winning the referendum at a canter and Ed Miliband's Labour in the lead for most of the run up to the election of GE2015.

    They still telephone poll, don't they?

    Surely, they've learned that people will not tell them the truth using this method.

    Corbyn and UKIP are both a source of ridicule. They will do better among these respondents in the secrecy of a polling booth.
  • chestnut said:

    Ipsos Mori had Remain winning the referendum at a canter and Ed Miliband's Labour in the lead for most of the run up to the election of GE2015.

    They still telephone poll, don't they?

    Surely, they've learned that people will not tell them the truth using this method.

    Corbyn and UKIP are both a source of ridicule. They will do better among these respondents in the secrecy of a polling booth.

    Mori have been Good Old Bouncy Mori for as long as I can remember. They were the geniuses who managed to poll the Tories at over 50% in the Brown-Cameron era.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.

    No one wants to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes, especially not if there is a chance of some other fool taking Corbyn down and clearing the way for them to have a run at the leadership.

    Practical outcome is that anyone capable of taking Corbyn down wont try, because they are the same people that are capable of winning the leadership election that would follow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited February 2017
    Another omen for the mother and father of all shellackings at the next general election.

    In this poll

    Aged 65:74 - Tory lead of 34% over Labour

    Over 75s: - Tory lead of 37% over Labour.

    At GE 2015 the Tory lead over Labour with the overs 65s was 24%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Pulpstar said:

    2015:

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4

    What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
    Tories win Bootle....

    Forget Labour being the reds. Politics now is the Blues v the Norwegian Blues.....
  • 'Ukip's Paul Nuttall fails to turn up for hustings in Stoke amid Hillsborough controversy'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxlgv4t

    He'll be releasing a statement tomorrow saying he was there, sure as eggs is eggs.

    Woe betide those who mock Hillsborough. Remember Kelvin McKenzie, EUPrat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    'Ukip's Paul Nuttall fails to turn up for hustings in Stoke amid Hillsborough controversy'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxlgv4t

    He'll be releasing a statement tomorrow saying he was there, sure as eggs is eggs.

    https://twitter.com/PSbook/status/832208282194436097

    Perhaps someone should look through his letterbox :-)
    He has sent a note from his mum - he was too busy grieving for his bezzy mate, who died in Auschwitz....
  • Mark Clattenburg is to quit his job as a Premier League referee to take up a position in Saudi Arabia.

    The 41-year-old is widely considered to be one of the best referees in football, and he took charge of the Euro 2016 final, the Champions League final and the FA Cup final last season.

    In December, Clattenburg said he would consider officiating in the Chinese Super League.

    An official announcement is expected this afternoon.

    He is expected to leave his role before the next round of Premier League fixtures which starts on 25 February.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38993655
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Why are people baxtering Con 50 Lab 24 when the poll only has Conservatives at 40% and in real council elections they cannot poll even 30% ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Why are people baxtering Con 50 Lab 24 when the poll only has Conservatives at 40% and in real council elections they cannot poll even 30% ?

    Leader ratings.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Mark Clattenburg is to quit his job as a Premier League referee to take up a position in Saudi Arabia.

    The 41-year-old is widely considered to be one of the best referees in football, and he took charge of the Euro 2016 final, the Champions League final and the FA Cup final last season.

    In December, Clattenburg said he would consider officiating in the Chinese Super League.

    An official announcement is expected this afternoon.

    He is expected to leave his role before the next round of Premier League fixtures which starts on 25 February.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38993655

    You know amongst the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune I just might be able to hold myself together in the face of this one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    It probably should be normalized for age. A far greater proportion of under 30s have a degree compared with over 50s.
  • DavidL said:

    Mark Clattenburg is to quit his job as a Premier League referee to take up a position in Saudi Arabia.

    The 41-year-old is widely considered to be one of the best referees in football, and he took charge of the Euro 2016 final, the Champions League final and the FA Cup final last season.

    In December, Clattenburg said he would consider officiating in the Chinese Super League.

    An official announcement is expected this afternoon.

    He is expected to leave his role before the next round of Premier League fixtures which starts on 25 February.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38993655

    You know amongst the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune I just might be able to hold myself together in the face of this one.
    Just imagine how Spurs fans would have reacted if it was Mike Dean
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are people baxtering Con 50 Lab 24 when the poll only has Conservatives at 40% and in real council elections they cannot poll even 30% ?

    Leader ratings.
    More like wishful thinking .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    It probably should be normalized for age. A far greater proportion of under 30s have a degree compared with over 50s.
    You're expected to have one if you're under 30 these days. Noone worries if you're over 50 and don't.
    Effective competitive tax disadvantage.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    You on Lab for both for decent size, or just a straight UKIP lay in Copeland ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    Don't worry Freggles, you're safe enough in Stoke from us.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Why are people baxtering Con 50 Lab 24 when the poll only has Conservatives at 40% and in real council elections they cannot poll even 30% ?

    Leader ratings.
    Also, there haven't been any real council elections for over nine months, and the results of those are rather out of date.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    True but this is much more evident in the bye election results than the national polling.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 927
    Let us see what the Conservatives actually do at Copeland, winning ok but what is their percentage, will it be on the back of Labour abstentions and defections to the Lib Dems not their own growth.
    UKIP seem to be on the run at Stoke, Labour ve Lib Dems next week on the cards, probably identifies the Lib Dem "anger" today, complaints and wanting apologies from Labour for those texts, whatever they may say. .
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Mark Clattenburg is to quit his job as a Premier League referee to take up a position in Saudi Arabia.

    The 41-year-old is widely considered to be one of the best referees in football, and he took charge of the Euro 2016 final, the Champions League final and the FA Cup final last season.

    In December, Clattenburg said he would consider officiating in the Chinese Super League.

    An official announcement is expected this afternoon.

    He is expected to leave his role before the next round of Premier League fixtures which starts on 25 February.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38993655

    I wonder what club he's going to play for over there.
  • DavidL said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
    In May a lot of the focus will be on the super-mayoralties for the 10 new combined authorities.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are people baxtering Con 50 Lab 24 when the poll only has Conservatives at 40% and in real council elections they cannot poll even 30% ?

    Leader ratings.
    Also, there haven't been any real council elections for over nine months, and the results of those are rather out of date.
    There have been a substantial number of real elections every week . The Conservatives have been doing very badly in them except in Scotland . The Conservatives will do well in Scotland in May and poorly in England .
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    You on Lab for both for decent size, or just a straight UKIP lay in Copeland ?

    Roughly:

    Copeland;

    LAB +££££
    Con +-0
    UKIP -££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££
    LD/Other +££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££

    Stoke;

    Lab +££££
    UKIP -£££££
    Con/LD +£££££££££££££££££££
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    Don't worry Freggles, you're safe enough in Stoke from us.
    Is 'us' the LDs?
  • I do wonder whether if, under the big Con leads, Brexit (and Corbyn, and Cameron-to-May) has produced a seismic shift in voter alignment.

    Con is now consistently at least as far ahead of Lab with C2DE than with ABC1, while Lab lead with degree holders (which is partly an age thing, and partly perhaps a public-sector recruitment/employment thing - but only partly). Con leads also now in North and Midlands/Wales not far off national figures while Lab leads strongly in London.

    If these trends are maintained and the parties are prepared to act on them (or, even more so, if Con is prepared to act and Lab misses the threat), we could see some huge swings in traditionally Labour seats which will take a lot of people very much by surprise.
  • DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    True but this is much more evident in the bye election results than the national polling.
    Local elections are about now. National polls are about something that people aren't focused on.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    theakes said:

    Let us see what the Conservatives actually do at Copeland, winning ok but what is their percentage, will it be on the back of Labour abstentions and defections to the Lib Dems not their own growth.
    UKIP seem to be on the run at Stoke, Labour ve Lib Dems next week on the cards, probably identifies the Lib Dem "anger" today, complaints and wanting apologies from Labour for those texts, whatever they may say. .

    A win in Copeland, however it is achieved, would be a sensational result for a sitting government.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.

    No, it's feeble-minded prejudice-addled analysis from you.

    Where's this nonsense about "public sector middle managers" come from ? Do you know one, are you one, would you like to be one ?

    I just wonder how many public sector middle managers make up Stephen Timms' 35,000 majority here in East Ham ? In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives. I don't draw any conclusions from that but I do observe it.

    By the way, Baxter Lab 35, Con 32, LD 21 and the only winner is Nicola S.

  • THE company behind plans for nuclear new build in Cumbria has welcomed comments by Prime Minister Theresa May on the project.

    NuGen made the statement after Mrs May spoke about the proposals for a new power plant at Moorside, near Sellafield, during a visit to Copeland yesterday.


    http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Moorside-company-welcomes-Prime-Ministers-nuclear-comments-fc36c1f4-2b3d-48fd-9238-f56f282c227e-ds

    Mrs May talked about the local NHS and the proposed Moorside nuclear development, which she said the Conservatives are committed to, and recognise its importance.

    “A number of issues have been raised about the NHS, in particular the West Cumberland Hospital,” she said. “There is no truth whatsoever to close the A&E at the West Cumberland Hospital.

    "Labour have made claims about what I have said about maternity services. The claims they made are misleading.’’

    It had previously been claimed Mrs May had refused to intervene to stop consultant-led maternity services being removed from Whitehaven.


    http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/VIDEO-Prime-Minister-Theresa-May-visits-Copeland-in-run-up-to-by-election-e00b05d9-c18f-4d3b-a687-da6ad2994791-ds
  • I do wonder whether if, under the big Con leads, Brexit (and Corbyn, and Cameron-to-May) has produced a seismic shift in voter alignment.

    Con is now consistently at least as far ahead of Lab with C2DE than with ABC1, while Lab lead with degree holders (which is partly an age thing, and partly perhaps a public-sector recruitment/employment thing - but only partly). Con leads also now in North and Midlands/Wales not far off national figures while Lab leads strongly in London.

    If these trends are maintained and the parties are prepared to act on them (or, even more so, if Con is prepared to act and Lab misses the threat), we could see some huge swings in traditionally Labour seats which will take a lot of people very much by surprise.

    I think they should split pensioners out of the C2DE figures as they could be very misleading otherwise.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    DavidL said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
    In May a lot of the focus will be on the super-mayoralties for the 10 new combined authorities.

    There are only 6 super mayoralities being contested in May and the Cambs/Peterborough one is barely worth the prefix super .
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I do wonder whether if, under the big Con leads, Brexit (and Corbyn, and Cameron-to-May) has produced a seismic shift in voter alignment.

    Con is now consistently at least as far ahead of Lab with C2DE than with ABC1, while Lab lead with degree holders (which is partly an age thing, and partly perhaps a public-sector recruitment/employment thing - but only partly). Con leads also now in North and Midlands/Wales not far off national figures while Lab leads strongly in London.

    If these trends are maintained and the parties are prepared to act on them (or, even more so, if Con is prepared to act and Lab misses the threat), we could see some huge swings in traditionally Labour seats which will take a lot of people very much by surprise.

    I think they should split pensioners out of the C2DE figures as they could be very misleading otherwise.
    What I don't understand is the increase in the pensioner vote to the Tories - we have been assured multiple times that the current crop will die off and the next lot will be 100% Labour.
  • stodge said:

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.

    A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    True but this is much more evident in the bye election results than the national polling.
    Local elections are about now. National polls are about something that people aren't focused on.
    Local elections are actually about here and now with local factors involved.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    Lib Dem revival hasn't helped.
    Don't worry Freggles, you're safe enough in Stoke from us.
    Is 'us' the LDs?
    Yes, Pulpstar announced his Libdemification a while back.

    Oddly, though, his comments are still worth reading and he's remained sensible.
    So I doubt it's going to be a deep and long lasting conversion.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    stodge said:

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.

    A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
    I had the same experience re left win lecturers. Here's one

    https://youtu.be/3jdPGhq2QbQ

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    DavidL said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
    In May a lot of the focus will be on the super-mayoralties for the 10 new combined authorities.

    There are only 6 super mayoralities being contested in May and the Cambs/Peterborough one is barely worth the prefix super .
    Bristol/Bath/S Gloucs shot gun mayor.

    Con - Councillor from S Gloucs.
    Green - ex Bristol West candidate.
    Lab - ex Parish Councillor, Diversity Officer with NHS.
    LD - ex Bristol West MP & junior Minister.

    Not a very inspiring line up to be honest.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    People with degrees skew young. More of an age split then education split.
  • stodge said:

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.

    A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
    I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
  • If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dr_spyn said:

    DavidL said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    It's starting to feel a lot like Scotland. Labour are in a very bad place.

    hmm.

    It's not yet clear that it transfers through to byelections though. Some evidence in local council seats perhaps, but the Labour GOTV machine looks pretty much still intact and efficient as always for byelections.

    I think stoke 2017 = inverclyde 2011.

    Slightly smaller lab majority perhaps.
    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
    In May a lot of the focus will be on the super-mayoralties for the 10 new combined authorities.

    There are only 6 super mayoralities being contested in May and the Cambs/Peterborough one is barely worth the prefix super .
    Bristol/Bath/S Gloucs shot gun mayor.

    Con - Councillor from S Gloucs.
    Green - ex Bristol West candidate.
    Lab - ex Parish Councillor, Diversity Officer with NHS.
    LD - ex Bristol West MP & junior Minister.

    Not a very inspiring line up to be honest.

    Diversity Officer- Current Labour party in a nutshell.
  • IPSOS/Mori

    Net Satisfied (North, exl Scotland)

    May: +27
    Corbyn: -35
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.

    When the other choices available are UKIP, UKIP or Corbyn ^_~
  • IPSOS/Mori
    Net Satisfied May/Corbyn (diff May vs Corbyn)

    Degree: -3 / -43 (+40)
    Other Qual: +19 / -30 (+49)
    No qual: +35 / -45 (+80)
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Off topic:

    Telegraph says Bojo putting a fund together to combat Russia via soft power (support for Baltics, prevent cyber hacking etc)

    Hard to see how Trump can remain allied with May and with Putin. The UK and Russia haven't shown even the slightest bit of thaw in relations. Either Trump will abandon Putin and commit to NATO (the preference of the GOP) or he will stick with Putin which will mean no special relationship with the UK.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.

    No, it's feeble-minded prejudice-addled analysis from you.

    Where's this nonsense about "public sector middle managers" come from ? Do you know one, are you one, would you like to be one ?

    I just wonder how many public sector middle managers make up Stephen Timms' 35,000 majority here in East Ham ? In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives. I don't draw any conclusions from that but I do observe it.

    By the way, Baxter Lab 35, Con 32, LD 21 and the only winner is Nicola S.

    A Corbyn-led Labour Party may well take push up its vote in London, university cities, and some centres of government, while falling back everywhere else.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855
    nunu said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    People with degrees skew young. More of an age split then education split.
    That is true, but I'd love to see how the subject of the degree affects voting intention. I can't say I know many die-hard lefties amongst the people I know with degrees, almost all of which are STEM subjects.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    nunu said:

    DavidL said:

    This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
    People with degrees skew young. More of an age split then education split.
    That's true, but I think people with degrees also skew left.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Take 15/8 Ukip in Stoke I'd say... Betfair looks weak
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.

    A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
    I had the same experience re left win lecturers. Here's one

    https://youtu.be/3jdPGhq2QbQ

    There are statistics for this on US campuses and it is not pretty for anyone right of centre.

    Economics is the friendliest to conservatives, with 4.5 liberal professors for each conservative. History comes in at 33.5 to 1 !!!!

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/6/liberal-professors-outnumber-conservatives-12-1/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.

    Almost doubled
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.

    Almost doubled
    Almost to the levels everyone thought they'd get at the GE!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203
    MTimT said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.

    A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
    I had the same experience re left win lecturers. Here's one

    https://youtu.be/3jdPGhq2QbQ

    There are statistics for this on US campuses and it is not pretty for anyone right of centre.

    Economics is the friendliest to conservatives, with 4.5 liberal professors for each conservative. History comes in at 33.5 to 1 !!!!

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/6/liberal-professors-outnumber-conservatives-12-1/
    Of the people who I have met who are Marxists... Maybe 70% were history or politics academics.
This discussion has been closed.