Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
My Politics teacher at 6th Form was quite clear that you weren't going anywhere grade-wise in his class unless you supported the STV and belonged to the society he founded which campaigned for that particular voting system.
That cost me a tenner back in the day that funds were tighter than they are now.
In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.
There must be. But even when I was a mid-level civil servant 27 years ago, the FCO at least had a distinct pinkish tinge, politically. I cannot imagine that that was any different in the largest departments (save Defence) - Health, Social Security, Education and International Aid - and also imagine that there has been a leftward drift in the Civil Service generally since that time. Certainly none of my Facebook friends from that time appear to be Tories now and most are more vocally leftie than they were then.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
I fear that this is naive.
When you have whole departments that see their subject as essentially political, then *of course* their opinions will filter through. We've not yet got to the point of big US universities with their XXXX studies faculties, all of whom lecture in "social justice" and the like. However, I have teaching courses with people in my university who see their research as intrinsically political, for example "questioning the neo-liberal consensus".
I could easily post a good half-dozen or so profiles from the LSS department here with politicised research interests. Such things would probably be quite unfair on the individuals involved.
Anyway, yeah, we're not as bad as the US yet, but its a smooth and slippery slope.
This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
People with degrees skew young. More of an age split then education split.
That is true, but I'd love to see how the subject of the degree affects voting intention. I can't say I know many die-hard lefties amongst the people I know with degrees, almost all of which are STEM subjects.
Mine roughly splits the same way. Guess its the need for evidence?
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
I agree professors aren't the key influencers. But if you study certain subjects it's a bit obvious sometimes what their political views are.
Anyone teaching something with gender in the module title is very unlikely to be right wing.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
My Politics teacher at 6th Form was quite clear that you weren't going anywhere grade-wise in his class unless you supported the STV and belonged to the society he founded which campaigned for that particular voting system.
That cost me a tenner back in the day that funds were tighter than they are now.
My OU Economics lecturer told us at the start of the module that he hoped that by the end of the year we wouldn't have figured out whether he was left of centre or right of centre in his politics. He gave no conclusive indicators either way.
In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.
There must be. But even when I was a mid-level civil servant 27 years ago, the FCO at least had a distinct pinkish tinge, politically. I cannot imagine that that was any different in the largest departments (save Defence) - Health, Social Security, Education and International Aid - and also imagine that there has been a leftward drift in the Civil Service generally since that time. Certainly none of my Facebook friends from that time appear to be Tories now and most are more vocally leftie than they were then.
This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
People with degrees skew young. More of an age split then education split.
That is true, but I'd love to see how the subject of the degree affects voting intention. I can't say I know many die-hard lefties amongst the people I know with degrees, almost all of which are STEM subjects.
I recall seeing a breakdown a year or two ago.
The Arts and Social "Sciences" are overwhelmingly left wing. STEM is right wing.
If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
Almost doubled
Almost to the levels everyone thought they'd get at the GE!
That raises a good question.
It's often thought that the smaller parties see their vote shares in polls decrease between elections owing to lack of publicity. So UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens can all reasonably hope for increases in their vote shares from where they are now.
If they do, where is that support likely disproportionately to come from?
(This is in my view closely related to the thread header.)
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I had the same experience re left win lecturers. Here's one
If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
Almost doubled
Almost to the levels everyone thought they'd get at the GE!
That raises a good question.
It's often thought that the smaller parties see their vote shares in polls decrease between elections owing to lack of publicity. So UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens can all reasonably hope for increases in their vote shares from where they are now.
If they do, where is that support likely disproportionately to come from?
(This is in my view closely related to the thread header.)
UKIP in particular has had a lot of publicity in the last year or so.
This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
No, it's feeble-minded prejudice-addled analysis from you.
Where's this nonsense about "public sector middle managers" come from ? Do you know one, are you one, would you like to be one ?
I just wonder how many public sector middle managers make up Stephen Timms' 35,000 majority here in East Ham ? In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives. I don't draw any conclusions from that but I do observe it.
By the way, Baxter Lab 35, Con 32, LD 21 and the only winner is Nicola S.
A Corbyn-led Labour Party may well take push up its vote in London, university cities, and some centres of government, while falling back everywhere else.
Not just falling back but being hammered. I'm not convinced that local by-elections, where absent a targetted effort from the Lib Dems, Labour still usually has a half-decent ground game, are giving a representative reflection of how things would pan out in a general election.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
My Politics teacher at 6th Form was quite clear that you weren't going anywhere grade-wise in his class unless you supported the STV and belonged to the society he founded which campaigned for that particular voting system.
That cost me a tenner back in the day that funds were tighter than they are now.
My OU Economics lecturer told us at the start of the module that he hoped that by the end of the year we wouldn't have figured out whether he was left of centre or right of centre in his politics. He gave no conclusive indicators either way.
If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
Almost doubled
Almost to the levels everyone thought they'd get at the GE!
That raises a good question.
It's often thought that the smaller parties see their vote shares in polls decrease between elections owing to lack of publicity. So UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens can all reasonably hope for increases in their vote shares from where they are now.
If they do, where is that support likely disproportionately to come from?
(This is in my view closely related to the thread header.)
It will be interesting to track the same polls over the next year. The Lib Dems will probably overtake Labour among ABC1s, and possibly even the Tories.
Off topic: Telegraph says Bojo putting a fund together to combat Russia via soft power (support for Baltics, prevent cyber hacking etc)
Hard to see how Trump can remain allied with May and with Putin. The UK and Russia haven't shown even the slightest bit of thaw in relations. Either Trump will abandon Putin and commit to NATO (the preference of the GOP) or he will stick with Putin which will mean no special relationship with the UK.
Or he will be gone before the question comes to a head - which is not the likeliest of outcomes but nor is it impossible.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
The big political divide when I was at university was about whether the open field system was imposed from above or developed from below. It was a proxy war - those who favoured imposition were typically more right wing. I went for the from below camp, but that's probably because I was already more left than right!
My experience is that very few young adults go to university without having at least some foundational political views which they have largely got from or in reaction to their parents and siblings.
University workers are overwhelmingly left wing in outlook. According to THES at the last election, 46% voted Labour, 22% voted Green, and 7% voted for other left wing parties. 11% voted Conservative and 9% Lib Dem. Allowing for the fact that the left wing percentage is probably a bit lower in faculties like the sciences and economics, there are likely to be arts and social science faculties where one would only ever encounter left wing opinions. In such an environment, where the only argument is over how left wing the government should be, it's probably very easy to assume that one's opinions are actually facts, and to teach them as such.
And, plenty of young graduates are people with degrees from mediocre universities, lots of debt, unable to get graduate level jobs, and naturally attracted towards left wing politics as a result.
I actually think 0% of the people really believe Corbyn is doing a good job. Even the most ardent Corbynista would jump at the chance to have a different left wing leader in place. They just know that for the moment there is no assurance of that if Corbyn goes.
Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
The moderates were right. Owen Smith smoked out the 40% of Labour members who were at that time implacably opposed to Corbyn. Now, everyone knows what the task is. It was Smith who took one for the team.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
I fear that this is naive.
When you have whole departments that see their subject as essentially political, then *of course* their opinions will filter through. We've not yet got to the point of big US universities with their XXXX studies faculties, all of whom lecture in "social justice" and the like. However, I have teaching courses with people in my university who see their research as intrinsically political, for example "questioning the neo-liberal consensus".
I could easily post a good half-dozen or so profiles from the LSS department here with politicised research interests. Such things would probably be quite unfair on the individuals involved.
Anyway, yeah, we're not as bad as the US yet, but its a smooth and slippery slope.
My wife tells me that it was clear that Marxist thought, assumptions and approach to historical analysis were quite clear in her Berkeley history of art degree
This is bizarre. Basically Labour are reliant on public sector middle managers worried about their pensions and "retirement packages". There really is no one else left.
No, it's feeble-minded prejudice-addled analysis from you.
Where's this nonsense about "public sector middle managers" come from ? Do you know one, are you one, would you like to be one ?
I just wonder how many public sector middle managers make up Stephen Timms' 35,000 majority here in East Ham ? In my experience, there are plenty of Conservative supporters among the public sector.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives. I don't draw any conclusions from that but I do observe it.
By the way, Baxter Lab 35, Con 32, LD 21 and the only winner is Nicola S.
A Corbyn-led Labour Party may well take push up its vote in London, university cities, and some centres of government, while falling back everywhere else.
Not just falling back but being hammered. I'm not convinced that local by-elections, where absent a targetted effort from the Lib Dems, Labour still usually has a half-decent ground game, are giving a representative reflection of how things would pan out in a general election.
Local by-elections tell us nothing at all about how matters would pan out in a general election. Rallings and Thrasher came to that conclusion 15 years ago.
I actually think 0% of the people really believe Corbyn is doing a good job. Even the most ardent Corbynista would jump at the chance to have a different left wing leader in place. They just know that for the moment there is no assurance of that if Corbyn goes.
Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
The moderates were right. Owen Smith smoked out the 40% of Labour members who were at that time implacably opposed to Corbyn. Now, everyone knows what the task is. It was Smith who took one for the team.
And on that note, I seem to recall Smith and Nandy giving joint interviews expressing their regret at the necessity of Corbyn's defenestration. She's a smart lass.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
I actually think 0% of the people really believe Corbyn is doing a good job. Even the most ardent Corbynista would jump at the chance to have a different left wing leader in place. They just know that for the moment there is no assurance of that if Corbyn goes.
Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
You are wrong. Many people joined the party because of Jeremy and will stick with him no matter what.
However, since the summer there (certainly in my neck of the woods) is a growing group of left wingers and trade unionists, who both like to win elections, that are not happy with what is going on.
It may sound ironic, but despite recently being allied to them, this group are perhaps now the most hostile to the new Corbynites. They can't abide people taking over meetings, talking crap, being useless and never doing any work.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
I have studied at three different universities without once learning anything about my lecturers' political views but even if I'd known them, so what? Should I vote Tory because the maths professor leans that way? Or follow the LibDem organic chemist? It's overwhelmingly parents, not teachers or professors that influence our political views.
In regard to lecturers, I also don't think that they shape students views. At the end of the day, university students are adults - and many come to uni with their own political views, long before a lecturer has even uttered a word about politics. However I'm not sure about parents shaping their kids political views. Looking at elections, and polling data most parents are Conservatives. But I wouldn't say that most young people are Conservatives. And GE data doesn't really show that either.
If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
Almost doubled
Almost to the levels everyone thought they'd get at the GE!
That raises a good question.
It's often thought that the smaller parties see their vote shares in polls decrease between elections owing to lack of publicity. So UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens can all reasonably hope for increases in their vote shares from where they are now.
If they do, where is that support likely disproportionately to come from?
(This is in my view closely related to the thread header.)
It will be interesting to track the same polls over the next year. The Lib Dems will probably overtake Labour among ABC1s, and possibly even the Tories.
Don't see that second one happening, the first one is possible.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
I'm not sure where you're getting your figures from. The final Ipsos Mori poll predicted Remain to poll 52%
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
Ipsos Mori certainly have a left wing skew in their polls.
Clearly, Corbyn has a bedrock of support which may be disproportionately in some areas, age groups and social groups. My only observation is that a poll among the supposedly-educated (those with a Degree) shows less support for the Conservatives.
A lot of those on the right already attribute that to universities generally being pretty left-wing places. Certainly when I was at uni, all of my lecturers were left-wing. I suppose it would have been interesting to have had a Conservative lecturer purely to have seen the reaction to his/her views when expressed.
The big political divide when I was at university was about whether the open field system was imposed from above or developed from below. It was a proxy war - those who favoured imposition were typically more right wing. I went for the from below camp, but that's probably because I was already more left than right!
My experience is that very few young adults go to university without having at least some foundational political views which they have largely got from or in reaction to their parents and siblings.
Yes, I'd agree that most people already have at least some political views prior to going to uni. Although I did find among all my cousins (all of whom went uni) that they didn't really care about politics. One of cousins actually studied history at uni, and yet had very little interest in politics. I have found that my family members are atypical though.
The one area of politics where my parents did influence my thinking is on Iraq. But other than that my family generally had very little influence in shaping my politics.
Naysayers may like to know having backed Chris Leslie at 999/1 I have successfully laid him at 499/1, but only to the extent of levelling everyone else and leaving me +1000 on Leslie himself.
Provided Corbyn wins at least one by election he will be safe. Interesting the Tories are now doing better with C2DEs than ABC1s although not as much as UKIP. Labour now do better with ABC1s than C2DEs though not as much as the LDs. Labour are no longer a working class party, that is UKIP and it is the LDs not the Tories who are now a party of the middle class
No amount of byelection defeats would shift tbe limpet like Jezza. He goes at a time of his own choosing. He had the brass neck to withstand a no confidence vote by a substantial majority of his MPs just last year.
But from his perspective by elections are more important. Backing down before the careerists in parliament would be a betrayal of his ethos. I wouldn't rule out that a really bad night with traditional Labour voters might trigger him to resign. The so called looney left aren't actually much like the stereotype of them in the media. Their values aren't those of the mainstream, but they aren't irrational and they most certainly do want to win elections.
Not really - I have them as equal results at the moment. I really can't see a third party shock at all here whereas there is the faint chance of one in Stoke.
@Sean_F It's interesting you say that about graduates, during a period where many people have reacted to economic hardship in their own lives by voting for Brexit, Trump etc. Thankfully I haven't had the issues with employment that I thought I would have had post-graduation, but graduates who are struggling are likely to have had left-wing views prior to their struggles.
If the Lib Dems are at 13%, as the IPSOS-Mori poll suggests, then their support has risen sharply since the general election.
Almost doubled
Does third party support drop between midterm and the succeeding election as main opposition party support does?
From memory, yes, it does tend to dip a little.
However, there are exceptions. 2001-5 saw the Lib Dems perform unusually strongly mid-term due to Iraq, and 1979-83 and 1983-7 both saw the Alliance perform extremely strongly when both main parties were unpopular.
Post-2015 was always likely to be an exception too given the highly unusual election (in Lib Dem terms) preceding it.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
@Sean_F It's interesting you say that about graduates, during a period where many people have reacted to economic hardship in their own lives by voting for Brexit, Trump etc. Thankfully I haven't had the issues with employment that I thought I would have had post-graduation, but graduates who are struggling are likely to have had left-wing views prior to their struggles.
I think that the expansion of higher education has fuelled expectations that have subsequently been disappointed. 40% or so of young people go to university. But, far fewer than 40% of jobs could really be called graduate-level jobs. Revolutions are typically strongly supported by graduates who can't find work, or can't find graduate-level work. I'm not saying that we face any sort of revolution, but it does seem to me that unhappy graduates would naturally skew left.
Cumbria Times and Star newspaper has an online poll on by-election. Current results:
Who will you vote for in the Copeland by-election on February 23? 24.1 % : Labour's Gillian Troughton
23.2 % : The Conservative Party's Trudy Harrison
33.5 % : The Liberal Democrats' Rebecca Hanson
9.3 % : UKIP
If anyone wants to bet on the LibDems in Copeland, I'm happy to offer 5-1. Which is staggeringly good considering they are clearly leading according to this highly scientific and accurate poll.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
Cumbria Times and Star newspaper has an online poll on by-election. Current results:
Who will you vote for in the Copeland by-election on February 23? 24.1 % : Labour's Gillian Troughton
23.2 % : The Conservative Party's Trudy Harrison
33.5 % : The Liberal Democrats' Rebecca Hanson
9.3 % : UKIP
If anyone wants to bet on the LibDems in Copeland, I'm happy to offer 5-1. Which is staggeringly good considering they are clearly leading according to this highly scientific and accurate poll.
I actually think 0% of the people really believe Corbyn is doing a good job. Even the most ardent Corbynista would jump at the chance to have a different left wing leader in place. They just know that for the moment there is no assurance of that if Corbyn goes.
Labour's big problem is that their moderates are too cowardly to take on Corbyn. In last year's leadership election, none of the 'rising stars' were willing to 'take one for the team', and left it to Owen Thingy of all people, basically gifting the election to Corbyn.
That remains Labour's problem: that no serious candidate is willing to challenge Corbyn. If Corbyn is not willing to go voluntarily then only one of three outcomes can result.
1. Corbyn himself leads Labour into the next election, either by default (because there is no new leadership election or because a general election occurs before a challenge can be launched), or because the disillusionment over Brexit dissipates and he wins a third leadership election. 2. An Owen Smith-like leader leads Labour in because one was brave enough to stand when no-one else did, and was finally successful as the anti-Corbyn. 3. A genuine PM-material candidate did the brave thing, launched a challenge and won.
(1) and (2) would be equally disastrous for Labour. (3) is possible after a (2), if that other leader won and then stood aside but the timetable for that is getting tighter and in any case, a second failed Labour leader within a parliament would hand a hospital pass for whoever came next.
So if Corbyn doesn't stand aside, then Starmer or someone of his calibre must challenge if 2020 is to be at all competitive. (I don't actually rate Starmer as that much or a politician yet - he's still too much the lawyer - but he is someone the country could credibly look to as a PM).
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
@Sean_F It's interesting you say that about graduates, during a period where many people have reacted to economic hardship in their own lives by voting for Brexit, Trump etc. Thankfully I haven't had the issues with employment that I thought I would have had post-graduation, but graduates who are struggling are likely to have had left-wing views prior to their struggles.
I think that the expansion of higher education has fuelled expectations that have subsequently been disappointed. 40% or so of young people go to university. But, far fewer than 40% of jobs could really be called graduate-level jobs. Revolutions are typically strongly supported by graduates who can't find work, or can't find graduate-level work. I'm not saying that we face any sort of revolution, but it does seem to me that unhappy graduates would naturally skew left.
China and its graduates will become a story at some stage soon.
My son is a graduate of three years now. He is working in admin at Warwick University as he tries to make his fortune as a music journalist/radio presenter. If he is anything to go by "a plague on all your houses I will do this my way" is the prevailing mood. He is very opinionated and has no political home.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
I'm inclined to agree.
I'm not sure there is any great value in left/right as a deeply meaningful way of thinking, but it has become accepted shorthand for a broad way of looking at things in terms of state involvement in citizens' lives, attitudes to law and order, defence spending, the extent of tax redistribution, the organisation of education and healthcare services and so on.
It takes an straight majority to ban referendums, it takes a straight majority to either unban them or make the new referendum "notwithstanding the Ban Referendums Act". It would be another of the sort of pointless grandstanding bit of legislation with which Osborne was so enamoured.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
Is this trolling? Traditionally authoritarianism is seen as orthogonal to the left-right axis, so there are left and right wing authoritarians.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
We are rightly cautious on going off anecdote, but we don't have many JC believers on here so we need to speak to people who are and have been. It's not whether we think Corbyn is any good that matters, it's those who've voted for him before - and I'm not seeing the signs that others are, that there's any real movement here.
I think that's a very good point. I'd disagree slightly on your last sentence, in that I think there are signs of some movement, but you are probably right that, for the moment at least, it's not enough of a shift to dislodge him,
@Sean_F It's interesting you say that about graduates, during a period where many people have reacted to economic hardship in their own lives by voting for Brexit, Trump etc. Thankfully I haven't had the issues with employment that I thought I would have had post-graduation, but graduates who are struggling are likely to have had left-wing views prior to their struggles.
I think that the expansion of higher education has fuelled expectations that have subsequently been disappointed. 40% or so of young people go to university. But, far fewer than 40% of jobs could really be called graduate-level jobs. Revolutions are typically strongly supported by graduates who can't find work, or can't find graduate-level work. I'm not saying that we face any sort of revolution, but it does seem to me that unhappy graduates would naturally skew left.
China and its graduates will become a story at some stage soon.
My son is a graduate of three years now. He is working in admin at Warwick University as he tries to make his fortune as a music journalist/radio presenter. If he is anything to go by "a plague on all your houses I will do this my way" is the prevailing mood. He is very opinionated and has no political home.
If only your son had been advised to do a proper degree and get a proper job. I blame the parents :-)
Cumbria Times and Star newspaper has an online poll on by-election. Current results:
Who will you vote for in the Copeland by-election on February 23? 24.1 % : Labour's Gillian Troughton
23.2 % : The Conservative Party's Trudy Harrison
33.5 % : The Liberal Democrats' Rebecca Hanson
9.3 % : UKIP
If anyone wants to bet on the LibDems in Copeland, I'm happy to offer 5-1. Which is staggeringly good considering they are clearly leading according to this highly scientific and accurate poll.
A slight note of caution - it takes the elderly a bit longer to click online and their hands are shaky enough tp click the wrong party.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
Agree. And applies principally to two areas: Social / economic. Pretty much all lefties are economically authoritarian but with a mix of social views (mostly liberal). Most righties are economically libertarian but also with a mix of social views. So knowing that someone is fine with gays tells you nothing of his economic stance these days, for example. But it's also a bit misleading in the sense thqat 'Liberals' don't want everyone to be free to have whatever opinion they wish on social matters. Most 'liberals' demand vociferously that you adhere to their view - and if you don't you're a nazi. So infact not libertarian at all so much as libertine. It's an important distinction.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
Is this trolling? Traditionally authoritarianism is seen as orthogonal to the left-right axis, so there are left and right wing authoritarians.
You need the second axis for this to make sense. So Authoritarian-egalitarian on one axis, and collectivist-libertarian on the other. Unless that is what you were meaning, Robert.
Mr. Patrick, whilst there are some who belong to the "Everyone who disagrees with me is Hitler" lunatic group, they're a small (but perhaps vocal) minority.
We didn't have a prediction competition for this year, did we?
Mr. Patrick, whilst there are some who belong to the "Everyone who disagrees with me is Hitler" lunatic group, they're a small (but perhaps vocal) minority.
Including pretty much every lefty politician I can think of. When did you last hear one saying that we should all be free to have our own views on homosexuality (as an example) and that if churches want to denounce homosexuality then that's their doctrine / their business?
(for the record I'm complettely fine with homosexuality - just totally NFI and would like Gay Pride type noise to disappear)
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
Agree. And applies principally to two areas: Social / economic. Pretty much all lefties are economically authoritarian but with a mix of social views (mostly liberal). Most righties are economically libertarian but also with a mix of social views. So knowing that someone is fine with gays tells you nothing of his economic stance these days, for example. But it's also a bit misleading in the sense thqat 'Liberals' don't want everyone to be free to have whatever opinion they wish on social matters. Most 'liberals' demand vociferously that you adhere to their view - and if you don't you're a nazi. So infact not libertarian at all so much as libertine. It's an important distinction.
There are similar conflicts with "progressives/radicals" if the topic is the NHS.
They are among the most ultra conservative people around if this is the issue under discussion.
Mr. Indigo, legislative holier-than-thouness is most tiresome. Cf the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the 0.7% on foreign aid tosh, etc etc.
It's government legislating for headlines. Piffle and balderdash and so forth.
I'm struggling to think of any countries other than the UK that don't have fixed term governments (Australia is three years, the US four).
There must be some: but it doesn't seem uniquely socialist, or hoilier-than-thou, to have dates for elections fixed some time in advance. (Almost all - the US and France being the exceptions - seem to allow elections if the ruling party can no longer command a majority in the parliament or equivalent.)
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
The most significant political axis right now is the split between the righteous and the virtuous. The parties that will win will be those that are able to avoid placing themselves at the extremes of this spectrum - something that is hardest for UKIP and Labour.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
- Nationalist, not internationalist - Vocally opposed to any significant level of immigration - Tends to the 'punishment' rather than 'rehabilitation' role of the criminal justice system - Was opposed to gay marriage when it was going through (I think? - they certainly gained Tory defectors on the issue). - Low priority for environmentalism. Sceptical on climate change / necessity for anti-CO2 measures.
Take 15/8 Ukip in Stoke I'd say... Betfair looks weak
Can't fancy them at all. Think the Nuttall stuff has pushed an unlikely result out of reach. At the prices I'd rather back the Lib Dems.
Perhaps. I just don't think they will go bigger than 15/8 for a while, but just my guess
You could be right re the price as it's bigger with Hills than betfair curently.
What is amusing is the amount of money done on the Lib Dems at under 11 on betfair.
Some of that is mine (Laying). Don't knock the backers.
Pleased to hear it. Your book must look very pleasant I'd imagine....Were the short prices as a result of the early enthusiasm for their chance on here?
Mr. 1000, the Fixed Term Act came in for the Coalition, and there it might some sense, but binding all subsequent Parliaments is silly.
Except they haven't
1) A simple majority of the House can, at any time, vote to repeal it.
2) The act has an effective sunset clause in it.
Under section 7(4)–(6), the prime minister is obliged to establish a committee to review the operation of the Act and to make recommendations for its amendment or repeal, if appropriate. The committee must be established between 1 June and 30 November 2020, and the majority of its members must be members of the House of Commons.
Mr. 1000, the Fixed Term Act came in for the Coalition, and there it might some sense, but binding all subsequent Parliaments is silly.
Subsequent Parliaments aren't really bound, though, as a party that has a majority can pass a Bill to amend FTPA s1.2, such Bill not needing to be longer than the the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
- Nationalist, not internationalist - Vocally opposed to any significant level of immigration - Tends to the 'punishment' rather than 'rehabilitation' role of the criminal justice system - Was opposed to gay marriage when it was going through (I think? - they certainly gained Tory defectors on the issue). - Low priority for environmentalism. Sceptical on climate change / necessity for anti-CO2 measures.
For example.
I don't think any of those are specifically left/right issues.
Wings Over Bath has another SINDYREF question - when?
Before UK leaves EU: 32 After UK leaves EU: 19 Not for 20 years: 25 Never: 24
Rev Stu does his usual "add two numbers together" nonsense and concludes that 51% want a referendum in the "near future" - though you could as easily argue that 68% want to wait at least until we've left the EU......and 49% don't want one for at least 20 years....
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
- Nationalist, not internationalist - Vocally opposed to any significant level of immigration - Tends to the 'punishment' rather than 'rehabilitation' role of the criminal justice system - Was opposed to gay marriage when it was going through (I think? - they certainly gained Tory defectors on the issue). - Low priority for environmentalism. Sceptical on climate change / necessity for anti-CO2 measures.
For example.
I don't think any of those are specifically left/right issues.
Yes, all of them are pointers to a right wing attitude.
Take 15/8 Ukip in Stoke I'd say... Betfair looks weak
Can't fancy them at all. Think the Nuttall stuff has pushed an unlikely result out of reach. At the prices I'd rather back the Lib Dems.
Perhaps. I just don't think they will go bigger than 15/8 for a while, but just my guess
You could be right re the price as it's bigger with Hills than betfair curently.
What is amusing is the amount of money done on the Lib Dems at under 11 on betfair.
Some of that is mine (Laying). Don't knock the backers.
Pleased to hear it. Your book must look very pleasant I'd imagine....Were the short prices as a result of the early enthusiasm for their chance on here?
Yes I think so, it would have looked better had I not rebacked so soon at 12s.
I'd like Labour to hold on in both seats, that would be the jackpot.
Losing Copeland and holding Stoke works OK though.
So long as they manage to come second in Copeland..
Actually Lib Dem gain Stoke, Lab hold Copeland is the real big winner but I think that is unlikely.
Trying to understand the proposed USA tax on imports - is it the same or different as charging VAT on imports here?
It's really quite different. The US politicians who claim it's 'just like VAT' are wrong. VAT doesn't discriminate against imports (it's completely neutral: the consumer ends up paying the VAT on the total sales price irrespective of whether the item is produced domestically or is an import). The border tax would discriminate quite heavily against imports.
Take 15/8 Ukip in Stoke I'd say... Betfair looks weak
Can't fancy them at all. Think the Nuttall stuff has pushed an unlikely result out of reach. At the prices I'd rather back the Lib Dems.
Perhaps. I just don't think they will go bigger than 15/8 for a while, but just my guess
You could be right re the price as it's bigger with Hills than betfair curently.
What is amusing is the amount of money done on the Lib Dems at under 11 on betfair.
Some of that is mine (Laying). Don't knock the backers.
Pleased to hear it. Your book must look very pleasant I'd imagine....Were the short prices as a result of the early enthusiasm for their chance on here?
Yes I think so, it would have looked better had I not rebacked so soon at 12s.
I'd like Labour to hold on in both seats, that would be the jackpot.
Losing Copeland and holding Stoke works OK though.
So long as they manage to come second in Copeland..
The prices in Copeland are wrong for a by-election. If it was a General I'd understand the Tories price, but a combination of a sensible Labour candidate and the local hospital stuff make it an 8/11 vs evens match imo.
Immediately before the last GE Mori forecast the UK Left triumvirate of Lib/Lab/Green would poll 48. They polled 43. An overstatement of five.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52 ICM 54 Yougov 54 Opinium 51
In what way is UKIP right wing?
In the way that they are commonly described as right wing.
I find left-right to be quite a lazy way of thinking, I prefer authoritarian-libertarian, and I think they come out on the authoritarian (i.e. left wing) end of the scale.
Is this trolling? Traditionally authoritarianism is seen as orthogonal to the left-right axis, so there are left and right wing authoritarians.
You need the second axis for this to make sense. So Authoritarian-egalitarian on one axis, and collectivist-libertarian on the other. Unless that is what you were meaning, Robert.
Here - have some fun with the world's smallest political quiz .....
Comments
That cost me a tenner back in the day that funds were tighter than they are now.
When you have whole departments that see their subject as essentially political, then *of course* their opinions will filter through. We've not yet got to the point of big US universities with their XXXX studies faculties, all of whom lecture in "social justice" and the like. However, I have teaching courses with people in my university who see their research as intrinsically political, for example "questioning the neo-liberal consensus".
I could easily post a good half-dozen or so profiles from the LSS department here with politicised research interests. Such things would probably be quite unfair on the individuals involved.
Anyway, yeah, we're not as bad as the US yet, but its a smooth and slippery slope.
But if you study certain subjects it's a bit obvious sometimes what their political views are.
Anyone teaching something with gender in the module title is very unlikely to be right wing.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/08/should-labour-move-swiftly-to-depose-corbyn/
The Arts and Social "Sciences" are overwhelmingly left wing. STEM is right wing.
It's often thought that the smaller parties see their vote shares in polls decrease between elections owing to lack of publicity. So UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens can all reasonably hope for increases in their vote shares from where they are now.
If they do, where is that support likely disproportionately to come from?
(This is in my view closely related to the thread header.)
Then he was centre-right.
They're the ones that have to hide at Uni.
My experience is that very few young adults go to university without having at least some foundational political views which they have largely got from or in reaction to their parents and siblings.
And, plenty of young graduates are people with degrees from mediocre universities, lots of debt, unable to get graduate level jobs, and naturally attracted towards left wing politics as a result.
They forecast a Remain vote of 55. Remain polled 48. An overstatement of seven.
Even in today's poll they think that Con/UKIP are on 49 - which means the right have theoretically lost votes since 2015, Corbyn's appointment and the referendum. That defies logic.
By contrast:
Com Res 52
ICM 54
Yougov 54
Opinium 51
Good idea by Cheltenham to limit the amount of booze people have.
Or rather, to nudge people to drink less.
However, since the summer there (certainly in my neck of the woods) is a growing group of left wingers and trade unionists, who both like to win elections, that are not happy with what is going on.
It may sound ironic, but despite recently being allied to them, this group are perhaps now the most hostile to the new Corbynites. They can't abide people taking over meetings, talking crap, being useless and never doing any work.
"I am, and always have been, the father of Paul Nuttall" - Paul Nuttall's father
Mind you so have the Lib Dems
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/heres-how-you-fight-a-by-election-in-2017?utm_term=.ffGvJE18B#.hnqpkXd0G
I meant the Lib Dems also feature in this week's email.
The one area of politics where my parents did influence my thinking is on Iraq. But other than that my family generally had very little influence in shaping my politics.
That will be a big relief to Mr (Professor? Doctor? His Holiness?) Nuttall's mother, I'm sure!
However, there are exceptions. 2001-5 saw the Lib Dems perform unusually strongly mid-term due to Iraq, and 1979-83 and 1983-7 both saw the Alliance perform extremely strongly when both main parties were unpopular.
Post-2015 was always likely to be an exception too given the highly unusual election (in Lib Dem terms) preceding it.
Current results:
Who will you vote for in the Copeland by-election on February 23?
24.1 % : Labour's Gillian Troughton
23.2 % : The Conservative Party's Trudy Harrison
33.5 % : The Liberal Democrats' Rebecca Hanson
9.3 % : UKIP
1. Corbyn himself leads Labour into the next election, either by default (because there is no new leadership election or because a general election occurs before a challenge can be launched), or because the disillusionment over Brexit dissipates and he wins a third leadership election.
2. An Owen Smith-like leader leads Labour in because one was brave enough to stand when no-one else did, and was finally successful as the anti-Corbyn.
3. A genuine PM-material candidate did the brave thing, launched a challenge and won.
(1) and (2) would be equally disastrous for Labour. (3) is possible after a (2), if that other leader won and then stood aside but the timetable for that is getting tighter and in any case, a second failed Labour leader within a parliament would hand a hospital pass for whoever came next.
So if Corbyn doesn't stand aside, then Starmer or someone of his calibre must challenge if 2020 is to be at all competitive. (I don't actually rate Starmer as that much or a politician yet - he's still too much the lawyer - but he is someone the country could credibly look to as a PM).
My son is a graduate of three years now. He is working in admin at Warwick University as he tries to make his fortune as a music journalist/radio presenter. If he is anything to go by "a plague on all your houses I will do this my way" is the prevailing mood. He is very opinionated and has no political home.
I'm not sure there is any great value in left/right as a deeply meaningful way of thinking, but it has become accepted shorthand for a broad way of looking at things in terms of state involvement in citizens' lives, attitudes to law and order, defence spending, the extent of tax redistribution, the organisation of education and healthcare services and so on.
It takes an straight majority to ban referendums, it takes a straight majority to either unban them or make the new referendum "notwithstanding the Ban Referendums Act". It would be another of the sort of pointless grandstanding bit of legislation with which Osborne was so enamoured.
It's government legislating for headlines. Piffle and balderdash and so forth.
But it's also a bit misleading in the sense thqat 'Liberals' don't want everyone to be free to have whatever opinion they wish on social matters. Most 'liberals' demand vociferously that you adhere to their view - and if you don't you're a nazi. So infact not libertarian at all so much as libertine. It's an important distinction.
We didn't have a prediction competition for this year, did we?
What is amusing is the amount of money done on the Lib Dems at under 11 on betfair.
(for the record I'm complettely fine with homosexuality - just totally NFI and would like Gay Pride type noise to disappear)
A very weak market at them mo, laying Labour for £150 would take them back to odds against
They are among the most ultra conservative people around if this is the issue under discussion.
There must be some: but it doesn't seem uniquely socialist, or hoilier-than-thou, to have dates for elections fixed some time in advance. (Almost all - the US and France being the exceptions - seem to allow elections if the ruling party can no longer command a majority in the parliament or equivalent.)
- Vocally opposed to any significant level of immigration
- Tends to the 'punishment' rather than 'rehabilitation' role of the criminal justice system
- Was opposed to gay marriage when it was going through (I think? - they certainly gained Tory defectors on the issue).
- Low priority for environmentalism. Sceptical on climate change / necessity for anti-CO2 measures.
For example.
1) A simple majority of the House can, at any time, vote to repeal it.
2) The act has an effective sunset clause in it.
Under section 7(4)–(6), the prime minister is obliged to establish a committee to review the operation of the Act and to make recommendations for its amendment or repeal, if appropriate. The committee must be established between 1 June and 30 November 2020, and the majority of its members must be members of the House of Commons.
https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/832256089857069057
Before UK leaves EU: 32
After UK leaves EU: 19
Not for 20 years: 25
Never: 24
Rev Stu does his usual "add two numbers together" nonsense and concludes that 51% want a referendum in the "near future" - though you could as easily argue that 68% want to wait at least until we've left the EU......and 49% don't want one for at least 20 years....
I'd like Labour to hold on in both seats, that would be the jackpot.
Losing Copeland and holding Stoke works OK though.
So long as they manage to come second in Copeland..
Actually Lib Dem gain Stoke, Lab hold Copeland is the real big winner but I think that is unlikely.
Edit: Good explanation here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-18/trump-is-right-border-adjustment-tax-is-complicated
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the_uk_is_being_stolen_4_reasons_we_are_still_angry_about_brexit_1_4887284
https://www.libertarianism.com/Quiz