The liberals really need to have six inches of rainfall in Stoke next Thursday to have any chance of winning. Still, 33/1 is tempting in a four horse race. Or three if you discount the Tories. I think Labour will just scrape home, though, with all this Nuttall stuff doing the rounds. Gareth Snell, though. My word, even in Labour's current state, they have really scraped the bottom of the barrel with him.
You have to ask why Labour could not find a local candidate who at least knows the area. Anyways, a pox on all of them.
Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.
You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.
My son is at Nottingham University and we went to visit him up there a few weeks back,. It was the North, no doubt :-) Mansfield is the grim North.
I lived in Nottingham for years. Never felt like the north to me. The architecture, the light, the landscape, the voices were all, well, not northern. It feel churlish to complain of living too far south when it's only 50 miles south of my home town, but that's how it was. Though I agree once you're south of the Trent it feels significantly more southern.
And Mansfield is grim, but grim does not necessarily equal northern.
Chesterfield, however, does feel northern, to me, just about.
Mansfield is Northern, and grim in parts. But there are far grimmer parts of Derby and London!
Interesting place - cut off the railways completely from 1970 to about 2000. 75k people and no railway station.
We are working on it. One of the advantages of Mansfield is that a couple of people in their 20s can start up a 6000 sqft gym for around 20k. Try that in Southam.
Full of leave voters as well no doubt. Despite the shed loads of EU Regional Development money that have gone into the area.
I think we had about 6 local contiguous constituencies at 70% leave or very close.
Interested to see some numbers on the Euro funding, as to me this never seems to amount to a hill of beans.
You do of course mean UK taxpayers money that was laudered by the EU then some of it given back to certain parts of the country along with numerous conditions and demands for additional matched funding from central government. Neither the EU Regional Development Fund nor any other EU body gave anywhere in the UK a single pound that hadn't already been taken from British tax payers and reduced in value.
Mr. Eagles, the S or Z is British. The US version is Z-only.
Oh dear. Moreover the use of 'ise' appears to be an invention of the French!
This practice probably began first in French; in modern French the suffix has become -iser, alike in words from Greek, as baptiser, évangéliser, organiser, and those formed after them from Latin, as civiliser, cicatriser, humaniser.
Hence, some have used the spelling -ise in English, as in French, for all these words, and some prefer -ise in words formed in French or English from Latin elements, retaining -ize for those formed from Greek elements.
But the suffix itself, whatever the element to which it is added, is in its origin the Greek -ιζειν, Latin -izāre; and, as the pronunciation is also with z, there is no reason why in English the special French spelling should be followed, in opposition to that which is at once etymological and phonetic. In this Dictionary the termination is uniformly written -ize. (In the Greek -ιζ-, the i was short, so originally in Latin, but the double consonant z (= dz, ts) made the syllable long; when the z became a simple consonant, /-idz/ became īz, whence English /-aɪz/.)
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
I'd say Labour are 90%+ to finish at least second in Copeland.
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Labour have gone from 3.45 > 4.2, not that sharp. But certainly a drift. I have £4 wagered!
First to show a left majority, too. What will the Express et al make of it if Angela is toppled from the left? Fortunately, there is a word...schadenfreude.
Second poll giving SPD the lead but taken mainly before new scandal on Schulz spending I think and the combined left parties still under 50%. It of course still makes zero difference to Brexit which of Schulz or Merkel is Chancellor given May's commitment to controlling free movement and leaving the single market, the only party who would make a difference are the AfD who are still third
You are correct. Meant majority in Bundestag. Combined left ahead of combined right. However, it is unlikely Die Linke would be invited into/accept a place in a coalition. A continuation of the Grand Coalition is most likely this far out, although it could be led by SPD.
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
I'd say Labour are 90%+ to finish at least second in Copeland.
- Internment without trial was imposed in a part of the United Kingdom. - Trial by jury was suspended in a part of the United Kingdom. - The British Government was found guilty by an international court of having committed acts against detainees which were one level below actual torture. - People travelling to and from Ireland were subject to increased checks. - The English police and judicial systems disgraced themselves in a series of miscarriages of justice which took far far too long to correct. - Innocent people were beaten up in prison and by the police - And Lord Denning blotted his copybook by coming out with a judgment which showed that he valued the reputation of the authorities above justice for individuals. - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles.
What point precisely was this Twitter user seeking to make?
I suspect that we are better than Trump and the deplorables.
Are we? Or, rather, were we when we faced a serious terrorist threat? Britain did not exactly cover itself in glory during the Troubles. Look at those first two points. Is Trump's much maligned EO even remotely as bad as that?
What about the third point? I felt pretty ashamed at the time that the British government was pleased to have that result rather than the infinitely worse finding of torture.
And what was the Labour government's response to the threat of Islamic terrorism in more recent times? Detention without trial for 90 days. Very liberal that.
I dislike Trump intensely. But when people on Twitter make jejeune and ill-informed comments without bothering to do some basic research, it gets my goat, frankly.
By all means let's have a debate. But posting pictures, using swear words and making a frankly risible point is for children not grown ups.
... - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles...
I take your other points, but I disagree strongly on that one. I was astonished at the lack of hostility towards the Irish during the period of the IRA atrocities. It was really quite remarkable.
Similar to the response to ETA I suppose. Most people's reaction to domestic terrorism is stoic bemusement.
WG remind me what was your wager definition of leaving the EU?
- Internment without trial was imposed in a part of the United Kingdom. - Trial by jury was suspended in a part of the United Kingdom. - The British Government was found guilty by an international court of having committed acts against detainees which were one level below actual torture. - People travelling to and from Ireland were subject to increased checks. - The English police and judicial systems disgraced themselves in a series of miscarriages of justice which took far far too long to correct. - Innocent people were beaten up in prison and by the police - And Lord Denning blotted his copybook by coming out with a judgment which showed that he valued the reputation of the authorities above justice for individuals. - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles.
What point precisely was this Twitter user seeking to make?
I suspect that we are better than Trump and the deplorables.
Are we? Or, rather, were we when we faced a serious terrorist threat? Britain did not exactly cover itself in glory during the Troubles. Look at those first two points. Is Trump's much maligned EO even remotely as bad as that?
What about the third point? I felt pretty ashamed at the time that the British government was pleased to have that result rather than the infinitely worse finding of torture.
And what was the Labour government's response to the threat of Islamic terrorism in more recent times? Detention without trial for 90 days. Very liberal that.
I dislike Trump intensely. But when people on Twitter make jejeune and ill-informed comments without bothering to do some basic research, it gets my goat, frankly.
By all means let's have a debate. But posting pictures, using swear words and making a frankly risible point is for children not grown ups.
But where would PB be without pictures, swear words and frankly risible points?
- Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles.
I started work in Warrington just after the bombings there and as I was just "off the boat" from Belfast I had a good, thick Norn Iron accent. I experienced no prejudice at all.
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Agreed. There is a very good chance of a Tory victory. No reason to visit otherwise...
... - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles...
I take your other points, but I disagree strongly on that one. I was astonished at the lack of hostility towards the Irish during the period of the IRA atrocities. It was really quite remarkable.
Similar to the response to ETA I suppose. Most people's reaction to domestic terrorism is stoic bemusement.
WG remind me what was your wager definition of leaving the EU?
The earlier of the date in the exit agreement when it enters into force, or 2 years after Article 50 if there's no agreement or extension. That reminds me I should bookmark the post which set this out in more detail.
... - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles...
I take your other points, but I disagree strongly on that one. I was astonished at the lack of hostility towards the Irish during the period of the IRA atrocities. It was really quite remarkable.
Similar to the response to ETA I suppose. Most people's reaction to domestic terrorism is stoic bemusement.
WG remind me what was your wager definition of leaving the EU?
The earlier of the date in the exit agreement when it enters into force, or 2 years after Article 50 if there's no agreement or extension. That reminds me I should bookmark the post which set this out in more detail.
Interesting. That seems potentially imprecise. For example what if the agreement contains a number of dates when various things happen - i.e. exit is staged, as some of the talk last week has started to contemplate?
... - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles...
I take your other points, but I disagree strongly on that one. I was astonished at the lack of hostility towards the Irish during the period of the IRA atrocities. It was really quite remarkable.
May not have been your experience. It was that of my Irish Catholic family. People assumed that (a) we must have been supporters of the IRA. We weren't. We despised them. We had no love for the British government and how it was behaving, mind. (b) being Catholic was like having some sort of rash (c) The Pope was at fault for not stopping the IRA. I remember someone saying this to my parents.
Not the worst things that could have happened to anyone. But still. The assumptions made about the Irish were a long way from what they are now and having murderous terrorism happening did not help.
Are we? Or, rather, were we when we faced a serious terrorist threat? Britain did not exactly cover itself in glory during the Troubles. Look at those first two points. Is Trump's much maligned EO even remotely as bad as that?
What about the third point? I felt pretty ashamed at the time that the British government was pleased to have that result rather than the infinitely worse finding of torture.
And what was the Labour government's response to the threat of Islamic terrorism in more recent times? Detention without trial for 90 days. Very liberal that.
I dislike Trump intensely. But when people on Twitter make jejeune and ill-informed comments without bothering to do some basic research, it gets my goat, frankly.
By all means let's have a debate. But posting pictures, using swear words and making a frankly risible point is for children not grown ups.
I think the point was very well made by the picture and the comment attached was entirely justified. Yes some things were done during the Troubles that you and I don't agree with. But as an example suspension of Jury Trial was the result of wholesale intimidation of Jurors combined with the inability to find sufficient jurors who could be claimed to be neutral and independent.
Given that 'one level below actual torture' is not, as far as I am aware, proscribed in international law it kind of falls under the category of 'looking at me funny' or 'being mean to me'. If it is not defined as illegal then I would not expect our security services to say 'oh we mustn't do that it might upset someone'.
You might have noticed that detention without trial and ID cards both failed to get through Parliament. Trump on the other hand was able to ban travellers from entering the US and it took a court order to stop him.
So yes, I do think the picture and the sentiment are entirely justified.
Over many years I travelled from my birth place in the north to my workplace in the south. Crossing the Trent near Newark was always the defining point - the two sides smelt different ( I think it was the coal mines).
There were coal mines in Kent. A great-uncle worked there for a while.
Isn't it odd that Trump and now Nuttall two right-wing political leaders are routinely caught out telling lies and it doesn't even warrant an apology. I wonder if we're seeing a phenomenon like JG Ballard's 'Crash'. Not completely understandable but very weird and disturbing nontheless.
Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.
January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).
February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).
Are you taking suggestions?
Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible
Jolly good. However, if you've not yet done it then...
Birmingham Int > Aberystwyth Aberystwyth > Devils Bridge > Aberystwyth (On what was BR's last steam railway and first privatization) Aberystwyth clifftop railway Aberystwyth > Civilization.
...would be a reasonable day out. Just try and avoid the start and end of terms.
Yep, always wanted to Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth! Lengthening days may mean I could be able tio squueze in the Vale of Rheidol line to Devil's Bridge. I did Birmingham to Shrewsbury in 2014, Shrewsbury to Crewe and Shrewsbury to Hereford in 2015, and Shrewbury to Chester via Wrexham in 2016.
The former now deceased West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner once recommended this to me a day trip: Wolverhampton - Porthmadog Porthmadog - Blaenau Festiniog Blaenau Festiniog - Llandudno Llandudno - Wolverhampton
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Like when I told folks here she was visiting Yeovil after Torbay at the General.....
Isn't it odd that Trump and now Nuttall two right-wing political leaders are routinely caught out telling lies and it doesn't even warrant an apology. I wonder if we're seeing a phenomenon like JG Ballard's 'Crash'. Not completely understandable but very weird and disturbing nontheless.
If you consider you are superior to others, then you know your lie telling will never be found out. Others are too stupid to catch you out..
Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.
January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).
February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).
Are you taking suggestions?
Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible
Jolly good. However, if you've not yet done it then...
Birmingham Int > Aberystwyth Aberystwyth > Devils Bridge > Aberystwyth (On what was BR's last steam railway and first privatization) Aberystwyth clifftop railway Aberystwyth > Civilization.
...would be a reasonable day out. Just try and avoid the start and end of terms.
Yep, always wanted to Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth! Lengthening days may mean I could be able tio squueze in the Vale of Rheidol line to Devil's Bridge. I did Birmingham to Shrewsbury in 2014, Shrewsbury to Crewe and Shrewsbury to Hereford in 2015, and Shrewbury to Chester via Wrexham in 2016.
The former now deceased West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner once recommended this to me a day trip: Wolverhampton - Porthmadog Porthmadog - Blaenau Festiniog Blaenau Festiniog - Llandudno Llandudno - Wolverhampton
Well that should get you away from Wolverhampton for most of a day....
If Labour win Copeland and the Lib Dems Stoke then the last three by-election victors will be hospital doctors. Although I believe Gill Troughton is no longer practising but is driving a St Johns ambulance. Weaponising the NHS?
Isn't it odd that Trump and now Nuttall two right-wing political leaders are routinely caught out telling lies and it doesn't even warrant an apology. I wonder if we're seeing a phenomenon like JG Ballard's 'Crash'. Not completely understandable but very weird and disturbing nontheless.
What's odd is that, in the video at the radio station, Nuttall does say sorry about three times, yet you choose to be bothered to post something which relies on him not having done so.
Isn't it odd that Trump and now Nuttall two right-wing political leaders are routinely caught out telling lies and it doesn't even warrant an apology. I wonder if we're seeing a phenomenon like JG Ballard's 'Crash'. Not completely understandable but very weird and disturbing nontheless.
Over many years I travelled from my birth place in the north to my workplace in the south. Crossing the Trent near Newark was always the defining point - the two sides smelt different ( I think it was the coal mines).
There were coal mines in Kent. A great-uncle worked there for a while.
The Kent miners from Betteshanger and Snowdown were among the most militant of the lot in the strike of 1984-5 (the heritage of Watt Tyler and Jack Cade, no doubt).
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Like when I told folks here she was visiting Yeovil after Torbay at the General.....
It was Dave campaigning in Yeovil at the general election 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house that got me.
I said, Dave, I had to admire your balls.
It was the moment that convinced the Lib Dems that they were going to win 30 seats at least, because they thought Dave, George, and Sir Lynton didn't have clue, as Lord Ashdown assured Clegg that Yeovil wasn't going blue.
The liberals really need to have six inches of rainfall in Stoke next Thursday to have any chance of winning. Still, 33/1 is tempting in a four horse race. Or three if you discount the Tories. I think Labour will just scrape home, though, with all this Nuttall stuff doing the rounds. Gareth Snell, though. My word, even in Labour's current state, they have really scraped the bottom of the barrel with him.
You have to ask why Labour could not find a local candidate who at least knows the area. Anyways, a pox on all of them.
Most postal votes are likely to have already been cast by now. If turnout is indeed low then that could be pretty crucial.
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Like when I told folks here she was visiting Yeovil after Torbay at the General.....
It was Dave campaigning in Yeovil at the general election 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house that got me.
I said, Dave, I had to admire your balls.
It was the moment that convinced the Lib Dems that they were going to win 30 seats at least, because they thought Dave, George, and Sir Lynton didn't have clue, as Lord Ashdown assured Clegg that Yeovil wasn't going blue.
He didn't say "Nick, if Yeovil goes blue, I'll eat my hat" by any chance did he?
If Labour win Copeland and the Lib Dems Stoke then the last three by-election victors will be hospital doctors. Although I believe Gill Troughton is no longer practising but is driving a St Johns ambulance. Weaponising the NHS?
The LDs have no chance of winning Stoke. A local by-election in Sunderland with a tiny electorate compared to a parliamentary constituency isn't a pointer to what might happen. But they could get 15% which would be an excellent result given they're starting on 4%.
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Agreed. There is a very good chance of a Tory victory. No reason to visit otherwise...
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Agreed. There is a very good chance of a Tory victory. No reason to visit otherwise...
Maybe thinking that her visit could tip the balance in a close race!
Isn't it odd that Trump and now Nuttall two right-wing political leaders are routinely caught out telling lies and it doesn't even warrant an apology. I wonder if we're seeing a phenomenon like JG Ballard's 'Crash'. Not completely understandable but very weird and disturbing nontheless.
If Labour win Copeland and the Lib Dems Stoke then the last three by-election victors will be hospital doctors. Although I believe Gill Troughton is no longer practising but is driving a St Johns ambulance. Weaponising the NHS?
The LDs have no chance of winning Stoke. A local by-election in Sunderland with a tiny electorate compared to a parliamentary constituency isn't a pointer to what might happen. But they could get 15% which would be an excellent result given they're starting on 4%.
Just an interesting hypothetical - makes a change from SPADS and council leaders.
This looks pretty bad, although you have to admire the spin of the Guardian in making it sound as though Boris, rather than the Labour council, has some awkward questions to answer:
If you trust Betfair prices and think UKIP have less than 40% chance of coming 2nd in Stoke you could sell them w SPIN at 14.5,although I am sure you all worked that out yourself following my idiots guide
Buying Labour at 12.5 (Advised by Meeks) in Copeland looks like an absolute rick.
Well the win part is only worth 5.75 on Betfair. You think they are 70% to finish 2nd?
Its 13.5 to buy now... off Betfair its prob more of a sell!
The Betfair price looks completely wrong to me in Copeland too though.
1.33 for the Tories ?!
There's been very sharp movement today. Perhaps there's been a private poll?
Mrs May is visiting Copeland for a reason.
Like when I told folks here she was visiting Yeovil after Torbay at the General.....
It was Dave campaigning in Yeovil at the general election 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house that got me.
I said, Dave, I had to admire your balls.
It was the moment that convinced the Lib Dems that they were going to win 30 seats at least, because they thought Dave, George, and Sir Lynton didn't have clue, as Lord Ashdown assured Clegg that Yeovil wasn't going blue.
Dave must have listened to the folks on the BattleBus..... I was told "Cheltenham has gone, Yeovil is very competitive..."
Did I just hear the news right Pewdiepie is being called anti semetic and being dropped by Disney. Wtf?! Free speech is dead. No one will take racism seriously again. I'm subscribing to him just for this.
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
Can I re-emphasise the campaign at Stoke is not Remain versus Leave. The issue of hard and soft Brexit yes, although I find this terminology wierd, but not Remain and Leave. A lot of people who voted Leave will not vote anyway. There will be some cross over voting. If anything the NHS is a big player and arguably the Lib Dems probably have the best candidate to deal with that. Have you noticed people are actually talking about that party now whether in praiseworthy or derogatory terms. That is a big change in emphasis from even a week ago.
Can I re-emphasise the campaign at Stoke is not Remain versus Leave. The issue of hard and soft Brexit yes, although I find this terminology wierd, but not Remain and Leave. A lot of people who voted Leave will not vote anyway. There will be some cross over voting. If anything the NHS is a big player and arguably the Lib Dems probably have the best candidate to deal with that. Have you noticed people are actually talking about that party now whether in praiseworthy or derogatory terms. That is a big change in emphasis from even a week ago.
Well you and Mike are talking about them!
I have managed to back them at 70 and lay it back at 34 today, so keep up the good work
UKIP really are an effing shower aren't they? Labour should be putting these gobshite losers away. It is testament to the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and the miserable misanthropy of Snell that the seat is even competitive.
UKIP really are an effing shower aren't they? Labour should be putting these gobshite losers away. It is testament to the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and the miserable misanthropy of Snell that the seat is even competitive.
UKIP really are an effing shower aren't they? Labour should be putting these gobshite losers away. It is testament to the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and the miserable misanthropy of Snell that the seat is even competitive.
Labour and UKIP are as bad as each other. That seems to be a good assessment of how things are at the moment.
In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is anything that could prove problematic
I would be a fantastic candidate in that case, a blank slate on which people may project their wishes. PB doesn't count as social media, right?
On topic, the poor people of Stoke-upon-Trent Central, what an Earth have they done to deserve not one but two complete bell ends as candidates.
A pedant writes: Stoke-ON-Trent Central. Stoke-UPON-Trent is one of the six towns which make up the larger conurbation of Stoke-ON-Trent (after which the city council and the constituencies are named). These exclude Newcastle-under-Lyme. 'The Potteries' is a term often used to Stoke-on-Trent + Newcastle (although I'm not sure how accurately; I'm not sure whether the pottery industry extended to Newcastle).
There is similar pedantic fun to be had around distinguishing the town of Stratford-upon-Avon and the borough of Stratford-on-Avon. (Or maybe the other way around?)
To the Royal Mail, Newcastle-under-Lyme is just Newcastle. Newcastle is Newcastle upon Tyne (no hyphens).
In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is anything that could prove problematic
I would be a fantastic candidate in that case, a blank slate on which people may project their wishes. PB doesn't count as social media, right?
Last time I checked the Neutral Party don't stand in elections. They prefer to grab power through coups...
Did I just hear the news right Pewdiepie is being called anti semetic and being dropped by Disney. Wtf?! Free speech is dead. No one will take racism seriously again. I'm subscribing to him just for this.
It seems an unwarranted overreaction if the BBC report on it is accurate, but corporations are allowed to be over cautious - if his viewer base remains, they or someone else will be back and he will not suffer.
I think the point was very well made by the picture and the comment attached was entirely justified. Yes some things were done during the Troubles that you and I don't agree with. But as an example suspension of Jury Trial was the result of wholesale intimidation of Jurors combined with the inability to find sufficient jurors who could be claimed to be neutral and independent.
Given that 'one level below actual torture' is not, as far as I am aware, proscribed in international law it kind of falls under the category of 'looking at me funny' or 'being mean to me'. If it is not defined as illegal then I would not expect our security services to say 'oh we mustn't do that it might upset someone'.
You might have noticed that detention without trial and ID cards both failed to get through Parliament. Trump on the other hand was able to ban travellers from entering the US and it took a court order to stop him.
So yes, I do think the picture and the sentiment are entirely justified.
It was more than "looking at me funny". The allegations were pretty serious and were more akin to what was alleged to have been practiced in Guantanamo and in Iraq: waterboarding, hooding, sleep deprivation etc.
In 1976, the European Court ruled that the British government was guilty of torture and inhumane and degrading treatment.
Concerned by the damage to its international reputation, the government appealed and two years later, in 1978, the European Court ruled that while the five techniques amounted to inhumane and degrading treatment, they did not constitute torture.
That is pretty shaming for Britain.
The actions which Britain took were worse, in my view, than banning people from entering a country and placing a temporary ban on others. They involved degrading treatment to its own citizens and detention without trial and miscarriages of justice to its own citizens. It's something far worse, IMO, than doing something that you might not agree with.
Locking people up for 26 years on the basis of made up evidence, confessions beaten out of them, the withholding of evidence and risibly incompetent forensic work goes to the heart of the rule of law. A judicial system that shuts down a legal case because it cannot bear to contemplate what such a case might mean goes to the heart of the rule of law.
It was shaming and it might be as well for us to look at the beams in our own eyes before taking the moral high ground about others.
The picture and the sentiment are uninformed and do nothing to aid a debate - a difficult one - about how to deal with terrorist threats from those who live in and may also be citizens of a country.
In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is anything that could prove problematic
I would be a fantastic candidate in that case, a blank slate on which people may project their wishes. PB doesn't count as social media, right?
Last time I checked the Neutral Party don't stand in elections. They prefer to grab power through coups...
We prefer to think of it as technocratic government, thank you.
The evidence is mounting that not only is Piers a total c***, he's also a pretty thick one.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/831552409302339588
Isn't the bragging part about her retweeting it? Not sure why the authorship of the list matters.
No one would doubt that Piers is a fawning little creep when it suits him, and is unable to keep tabs on all the sycophantic drivel he pumps out.
Piers, 2010: 'She would hate to be called a celebrity, and guards her private life intensely, so she doesn't play any part of the celebrity game. And that's why I've marked her quite far down my list. But by encouraging children to read, feel inspired and be creative, she has had a greater impact on the world than most of the other names on it.'
Piers, 2016: 'Nobody plays the celebrity game more abusively or ruthlessly than you, Ms 'Intensely Private Billionaire'.'
- Internment without trial was imposed in a part of the United Kingdom. - Trial by jury was suspended in a part of the United Kingdom. - The British Government was found guilty by an international court of having committed acts against detainees which were one level below actual torture. - People travelling to and from Ireland were subject to increased checks. - The English police and judicial systems disgraced themselves in a series of miscarriages of justice which took far far too long to correct. - Innocent people were beaten up in prison and by the police - And Lord Denning blotted his copybook by coming out with a judgment which showed that he valued the reputation of the authorities above justice for individuals. - Irish people and Irish Catholics were not exactly popular in mainland Britain during the Troubles.
What point precisely was this Twitter user seeking to make?
I suspect that we are better than Trump and the deplorables.
Better than "we're not so innocent" Trump......low bar.
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
The North begins, precisely, half a mile north of Nantwich, Cheshire.
You can actually hear the accents change, quite suddenly.
That feels about right. Crewe and Nantwich, I would have to think about before I decided if they were North or Midlands.
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
The North begins, precisely, half a mile north of Nantwich, Cheshire.
You can actually hear the accents change, quite suddenly.
UKIP really are an effing shower aren't they? Labour should be putting these gobshite losers away. It is testament to the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and the miserable misanthropy of Snell that the seat is even competitive.
That also works if you transpose "UKIP" and "Labour" and tweak the names accordingly. This is the Special Relationship in action: Trump v Hillary reenacted on a microscopic scale.
OT. The second and final episode of 'Moorside' tonight. Shouldn't be missed. Brexiteers in all their glory.
WWC (mainly) people who stuck together to support one of their number who was in trouble. That that person was a rather sad fantasist is irrelevant.
The point is that the people represented should not have been given the power to determine the country's future when they couldn't even work out how many children they had or who they belonged too.
(For those who haven't seen it that's no exaggeration and I'm told it was pretty well researched)
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
The North begins, precisely, half a mile north of Nantwich, Cheshire.
You can actually hear the accents change, quite suddenly.
OT. The second and final episode of 'Moorside' tonight. Shouldn't be missed. Brexiteers in all their glory.
WWC (mainly) people who stuck together to support one of their number who was in trouble. That that person was a rather sad fantasist is irrelevant.
The point is that the people represented should not have been given the power to determine the country's future when they couldn't even work out how many children they had or who they belonged too.
(For those who haven't seen it that's no exaggeration and I'm told it was pretty well researched)
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
The North begins, precisely, half a mile north of Nantwich, Cheshire.
You can actually hear the accents change, quite suddenly.
First to show a left majority, too. What will the Express et al make of it if Angela is toppled from the left? Fortunately, there is a word...schadenfreude.
Second poll giving SPD the lead but taken mainly before new scandal on Schulz spending I think and the combined left parties still under 50%. It of course still makes zero difference to Brexit which of Schulz or Merkel is Chancellor given May's commitment to controlling free movement and leaving the single market, the only party who would make a difference are the AfD who are still third
You are correct. Meant majority in Bundestag. Combined left ahead of combined right. However, it is unlikely Die Linke would be invited into/accept a place in a coalition. A continuation of the Grand Coalition is most likely this far out, although it could be led by SPD.
Given the SPD will not stomach Die Linke and the CDU will not stomach the AfD another Grand Coalition is almost inevitable yes
Dame Vivienne Westwood 'Theresa May's an evil woman.'
“She’s an evil woman,” Westwood said. “It’s not funny. Can you imagine what that woman’s like? When she gave the OK for Trident, they asked would she press the button? She said ‘Yes, but in a limited way’. It makes your stomach turn over.”
The Midlands is a quadrilateral, with corners at The Wash, the Humber, the Mersey and the Severn. Outside of that is, going clockwise, is the North, East Anglia, the South and Wales.
That puts Manchester just barely in the North, which doesn't seem right. The North/Midlands boundary should be somewhere between Macclesfield and Stoke.
The North begins, precisely, half a mile north of Nantwich, Cheshire.
You can actually hear the accents change, quite suddenly.
OT. The second and final episode of 'Moorside' tonight. Shouldn't be missed. Brexiteers in all their glory.
WWC (mainly) people who stuck together to support one of their number who was in trouble. That that person was a rather sad fantasist is irrelevant.
The point is that the people represented should not have been given the power to determine the country's future when they couldn't even work out how many children they had or who they belonged too.
(For those who haven't seen it that's no exaggeration and I'm told it was pretty well researched)
So what criteria would you have for the vote, Roger?
A property qualification, maybe? An IQ test? Not committing adultery? Not having children out of wedlock? What, exactly?
Comments
Paging the Duke of Edinburgh...
Mr. Eagles, the S or Z is British. The US version is Z-only.
You have to ask why Labour could not find a local candidate who at least knows the area. Anyways, a pox on all of them.
"I were sat ont buzz" means "I was sitting on the bass"
You do of course mean UK taxpayers money that was laudered by the EU then some of it given back to certain parts of the country along with numerous conditions and demands for additional matched funding from central government. Neither the EU Regional Development Fund nor any other EU body gave anywhere in the UK a single pound that hadn't already been taken from British tax payers and reduced in value.
This practice probably began first in French; in modern French the suffix has become -iser, alike in words from Greek, as baptiser, évangéliser, organiser, and those formed after them from Latin, as civiliser, cicatriser, humaniser.
Hence, some have used the spelling -ise in English, as in French, for all these words, and some prefer -ise in words formed in French or English from Latin elements, retaining -ize for those formed from Greek elements.
But the suffix itself, whatever the element to which it is added, is in its origin the Greek -ιζειν, Latin -izāre; and, as the pronunciation is also with z, there is no reason why in English the special French spelling should be followed, in opposition to that which is at once etymological and phonetic. In this Dictionary the termination is uniformly written -ize. (In the Greek -ιζ-, the i was short, so originally in Latin, but the double consonant z (= dz, ts) made the syllable long; when the z became a simple consonant, /-idz/ became īz, whence English /-aɪz/.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_spelling
1.33 for the Tories ?!
I'd say Labour are 90%+ to finish at least second in Copeland.
Is it a Northern thing?
Or maybe a Southern thing?
Funny lot, those not in the Midlands.....
What about the third point? I felt pretty ashamed at the time that the British government was pleased to have that result rather than the infinitely worse finding of torture.
And what was the Labour government's response to the threat of Islamic terrorism in more recent times? Detention without trial for 90 days. Very liberal that.
I dislike Trump intensely. But when people on Twitter make jejeune and ill-informed comments without bothering to do some basic research, it gets my goat, frankly.
By all means let's have a debate. But posting pictures, using swear words and making a frankly risible point is for children not grown ups.
http://pre05.deviantart.net/19cf/th/pre/i/2016/179/c/b/post_brexit_united_kingdom_by_stagyika-da7vams.png
Not the worst things that could have happened to anyone. But still. The assumptions made about the Irish were a long way from what they are now and having murderous terrorism happening did not help.
Given that 'one level below actual torture' is not, as far as I am aware, proscribed in international law it kind of falls under the category of 'looking at me funny' or 'being mean to me'. If it is not defined as illegal then I would not expect our security services to say 'oh we mustn't do that it might upset someone'.
You might have noticed that detention without trial and ID cards both failed to get through Parliament. Trump on the other hand was able to ban travellers from entering the US and it took a court order to stop him.
So yes, I do think the picture and the sentiment are entirely justified.
Wolverhampton - Porthmadog
Porthmadog - Blaenau Festiniog
Blaenau Festiniog - Llandudno
Llandudno - Wolverhampton
I said, Dave, I had to admire your balls.
It was the moment that convinced the Lib Dems that they were going to win 30 seats at least, because they thought Dave, George, and Sir Lynton didn't have clue, as Lord Ashdown assured Clegg that Yeovil wasn't going blue.
Maybe I am so biased it blinds me, but I'll be honest, when I saw that video I thought he came across well.
Will holding Stoke be enough to save Jez ?
In response, he said his account had been hacked and "words in that tweet were altered".
He said he had reported it to Twitter and had shut his account."
Akin to a big boy did it and he ran away.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/feb/14/millwall-cpo-false-funding-claim-public-money-mayor-london
Have you noticed people are actually talking about that party now whether in praiseworthy or derogatory terms. That is a big change in emphasis from even a week ago.
I have managed to back them at 70 and lay it back at 34 today, so keep up the good work
sell up and move out to the real world
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/831552409302339588
I would be a fantastic candidate in that case, a blank slate on which people may project their wishes. PB doesn't count as social media, right?
In 1976, the European Court ruled that the British government was guilty of torture and inhumane and degrading treatment.
Concerned by the damage to its international reputation, the government appealed and two years later, in 1978, the European Court ruled that while the five techniques amounted to inhumane and degrading treatment, they did not constitute torture.
That is pretty shaming for Britain.
The actions which Britain took were worse, in my view, than banning people from entering a country and placing a temporary ban on others. They involved degrading treatment to its own citizens and detention without trial and miscarriages of justice to its own citizens. It's something far worse, IMO, than doing something that you might not agree with.
Locking people up for 26 years on the basis of made up evidence, confessions beaten out of them, the withholding of evidence and risibly incompetent forensic work goes to the heart of the rule of law. A judicial system that shuts down a legal case because it cannot bear to contemplate what such a case might mean goes to the heart of the rule of law.
It was shaming and it might be as well for us to look at the beams in our own eyes before taking the moral high ground about others.
The picture and the sentiment are uninformed and do nothing to aid a debate - a difficult one - about how to deal with terrorist threats from those who live in and may also be citizens of a country.
Piers, 2010: 'She would hate to be called a celebrity, and guards her private life intensely, so she doesn't play any part of the celebrity game. And that's why I've marked her quite far down my list. But by encouraging children to read, feel inspired and be creative, she has had a greater impact on the world than most of the other names on it.'
Piers, 2016: 'Nobody plays the celebrity game more abusively or ruthlessly than you, Ms 'Intensely Private Billionaire'.'
(For those who haven't seen it that's no exaggeration and I'm told it was pretty well researched)
The former Ukip leader is not happy with how the campaign is being run
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-stoke-ukip-duffy_uk_58a34272e4b03df370daac5d?
“She’s an evil woman,” Westwood said. “It’s not funny. Can you imagine what that woman’s like? When she gave the OK for Trident, they asked would she press the button? She said ‘Yes, but in a limited way’. It makes your stomach turn over.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/londoners-diary-vivienne-westwood-goes-nuclear-on-theresa-may-at-elle-awards-a3466441.html
A property qualification, maybe? An IQ test? Not committing adultery? Not having children out of wedlock? What, exactly?