politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-elect

isam said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated. Will the good Labour WWC voters of Stoke really take a Guardian-approved view of his remarks?

If anything it'll endear him - gritty northern speak-yer-mind sense of humour. He's just acting how any northerner would when having to deal with the southern jessies.

Careful. Thinking that all northerners will go for that stereotype will have people jumping down your throat... or not.

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

I'm sure Mike's correct on what they should have done but it'll be a real shame if the only people who can be elected to office are people end up being either mind-numbingly on-message from the age of eight or incapable of operating Twitter.

Or better choosing not to use Twitter. I can't personally see the appeal of continuously telling everyone what is going on in my life, its just not that exciting. I have had a Twitter account for ages, but just for news links and watching other people making fools of themselves, but I have never tweeted. Similarly Facebook is basically there for cat pics and family photos.

Its best to assume that anything you put on social media is public and permanent, and the future is uncertain so anything even borderline controversial could come back and haunt you. Personally I would be cautious about sending anything more than trivially controversial by email, most providers will hand over your correspondence in response to a lawyers letter without all that tedious business of getting a court order.

Social media must make life so boring for lawyers, you have half your divorce case evidence passed to you these days from the couples social media accounts.

AlastairMeeks said:

I have a feeling that those posters who don't normally paste from the Guardian will make an exception for this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/leave-voters-london-voted-remain-eu?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

AlastairMeeks said:

I have a feeling that those posters who don't normally paste from the Guardian will make an exception for this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/leave-voters-london-voted-remain-eu?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

SouthamObserver said:

First German poll I've seen giving SPD the lead ...
https://twitter.com/danielberman2/status/831520590246846464

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

If that poll is accurate (and Panelbase are a reputable company) then that would be devastating for Labour. For comparison, the Conservatives won 13% of first preferences in 2012 and returned 115 councillors. Labour won 394 at the same elections.

Now, I accept that transfer-friendliness plays a significant role in STV and you can't read over directly from one election to another. All the same, if Scottish Labour does poll 14%, it's looking at losing 60%+ of its council base in a single blow.

The one proviso about that poll is independent candidates who took c.11% of the vote in 2012, though not sure how you question for them. Shouldn't make much difference to headline figs for main parties in relation to each other though.

dr_spyn said:

Stoke voters have to suffer Nuttall Snell and I Daniel Blake.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/831499527676911617

Tissue_Price said:

I suspect Nuttall's deception on Hillsborough will go down far worse than Snell's immature tweets.

The markets (and tipsters) agree:
https://twitter.com/paulmotty/status/831519662961721346

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/831504617448042497

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

MTimT said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

And every Cornishman knows the that North starts once you pass Exeter.

Cookie said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated. Will the good Labour WWC voters of Stoke really take a Guardian-approved view of his remarks?

If anything it'll endear him - gritty northern speak-yer-mind sense of humour. He's just acting how any northerner would when having to deal with the southern jessies.

Careful. Thinking that all northerners will go for that stereotype will have people jumping down your throat... or not.

It's not as controversial as thinking Stoke is in the North....

Excuse my ignorance. I don't really know where anywhere is north or west of Watford!

General rule of thumb - a true northerner thinks the north starts about 10 miles south of where he was born.

I recently read a book by someone from Shetland in which he quite happily delineated the north (of the world, admittedly) as beginning at 60 degrees north.

Stoke, though, is a moot point (like Grimsby). People from the south assume it's in the north because it's industrial and depressing. It's certainly not in the south. But according to Stuart MacConie, it's denizens don't particularly consider themselves northerners per se (but then again not really Midlanders either to any great degree of consensus. And they're certainly not southerners.)
For planning and adminstrative purposes, Stoke is in the West Midlands.

While we're on about that sort of thing, I recently read a book by Matthew Engel in which he visited all the traditional counties of England in order to try to get some sense of what makes them distinctive: one of the qualities he distinguished about Staffordshire (which for these purposes includes both the Potteries and the Black Country) was ultra-parochialism, and a disproprtionate disdain for the adjacent town, which, to the outside observer, is almost indistinguishable both geographically and characteristically from this one.

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Does that put Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Shropshire in the North? Surely not.

Patrick said:

This is, however, much the best map of the UK:
http://brilliantmaps.com/north-london-uk-stereotype/

rpjs said:

Cookie said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated.

If anything it'll endear him - gritty northern speak-yer-mind sense of humour. He's just acting how any northerner would when having to deal with the southern jessies.

Careful. Thinking that all northerners will go for that stereotype will have people jumping down your throat... or not.

It's not as controversial as thinking Stoke is in the North....

Excuse my ignorance. I don't really know where anywhere is north or west of Watford!

General rule of thumb - a true northerner thinks the north starts about 10 miles south of where he was born.

I recently read a book by someone from Shetland in which he quite happily delineated the north (of the world, admittedly) as beginning at 60 degrees north.

Stoke, though, is a moot point (like Grimsby). People from the south assume it's in the north because it's industrial and depressing. It's certainly not in the south. But according to Stuart MacConie, it's denizens don't particularly consider themselves northerners per se (but then again not really Midlanders either to any great degree of consensus. And they're certainly not southerners.)
For planning and adminstrative purposes, Stoke is in the West Midlands.

While we're on about that sort of thing, I recently read a book by Matthew Engel in which he visited all the traditional counties of England in order to try to get some sense of what makes them distinctive: one of the qualities he distinguished about Staffordshire (which for these purposes includes both the Potteries and the Black Country) was ultra-parochialism, and a disproprtionate disdain for the adjacent town, which, to the outside observer, is almost indistinguishable both geographically and characteristically from this one.

Given the expectation of a further by-election in Leigh, I'd say that the same is true of that part of traditional Lancashire. I've friends from the small towns between Bolton and Wigan like Atherton, Leigh and Westhoughton who tell me many people there see Bolton and Wigan as the "big city" let alone Manchester or even London. One friend from Atherton married another college friend who was half-Sri Lankan from London. He said that her family were much more welcoming to him than he expected, because "at least you're not from Leigh".

As someone from a small town between Wigan and Bolton, this is 100% accurate! When our kid signed up for 2 nights a week at
Leigh Tech, the reaction was Well if you're sure it's safe.

Beverley_C said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Beverley_C said:

No Sunil - Voting REMAIN was the epitome of common sense. One does not get better trading with one's biggest markets by telling them to get lost!

Its just possible that 52% of the public didn't consider the short term economy to be the most important thing in their lives, even considering the bullshit of the treasury report and punishment budget. Yelling at them that their actions don't make economic sense wont get you very far.

I am not yelling at anyone. Just pointing out the obvious virtue signalling.

Personally I am happy to wait a few years and see if I am right. I hope that I am wrong and that Brexit transforms the UK into a golden paradise - 1957 mkII -

david_herdson said:

TOPPING said:

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

I'm sure Mike's correct on what they should have done but it'll be a real shame if the only people who can be elected to office are people end up being either mind-numbingly on-message from the age of eight or incapable of operating Twitter.

Or better choosing not to use Twitter. I can't personally see the appeal of continuously telling everyone what is going on in my life, its just not that exciting. I have had a Twitter account for ages, but just for news links and watching other people making fools of themselves, but I have never tweeted. Similarly Facebook is basically there for cat pics and family photos.

Its best to assume that anything you put on social media is public and permanent, and the future is uncertain so anything even borderline controversial could come back and haunt you. Personally I would be cautious about sending anything more than trivially controversial by email, most providers will hand over your correspondence in response to a lawyers letter without all that tedious business of getting a court order.

Social media must make life so boring for lawyers, you have half your divorce case evidence passed to you these days from the couples social media accounts.

Not only is it a very popular communication tool, it is a necessary one for politicians. Even the Moggster has a twitter account.

It's also useful for analysis. You can pick up breaking news and insightful thoughts very quickly if you're following the right people.

rpjs said:

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

No southerner (from London and the South-East, the South Central (Hants, Berks, Oxon) or the South-West) regards counties such as Leics and Lincs as southern. Even Northants is pushing it.

SouthamObserver said:

Jobabob said:

Jobabob said:

Patrick said:

This is the north south line:
http://brilliantmaps.com/england-north-south/

Broadly the Trent-Severn line. I agree. Wales should not be included however as it's a separate country within the UK.

You could argue that the Trent at Nottingham is the hard border between north and south. Notts County FC in the Meadows and fully part of the English north. Forest in hardcore Remainer Tory Rushcliffe and the first club in the English south.

My son is at Nottingham University and we went to visit him up there a few weeks back,. It was the North, no doubt :-) Mansfield is the grim North.

dr_spyn said:

Abbott, McDonnell off to spread the word in Sunderland on April 1st.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/diane-abbott-john-mcdonnell-and-clive-lewis-to-tour-brexit-towns-in-fight-against-ukip_uk_58a2d703e4b094a129ee7f1d?

PlatoSaid said:

Fake news prank http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/hah-russian-phone-pranksters-persuade-maxine-waters-russian-marionette-invaded-limpopo-video/#disqus_thread

"Yesterday well known Russian pair of phone pranksters, Vovan (Vladimir Kuznetsov) and Lexus (Alexei Stoliarov), placed a phone call to U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) pretending to be Prime Minister Groisman They discussed another Russian aggression in state of Limpopo (made up name from well known Russian CHILDREN’s book) and installing Putin’s right hand marionette as its President by the name of Aibolit (another well known Russian CHILDREN’s book character, Dr. Aibolit and loosely translated play on a sound one makes when sick, Dr. OhItHurts!).

Maxine Waters agreed this Russian aggression must stop now! She offered help in overturning Limpopo’s new “dictator”.

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speaking of The North:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).

Are you taking suggestions?

foxinsoxuk said:

PlatoSaid said:

Fake news prank http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/hah-russian-phone-pranksters-persuade-maxine-waters-russian-marionette-invaded-limpopo-video/#disqus_thread

"Yesterday well known Russian pair of phone pranksters, Vovan (Vladimir Kuznetsov) and Lexus (Alexei Stoliarov), placed a phone call to U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) pretending to be Prime Minister Groisman They discussed another Russian aggression in state of Limpopo (made up name from well known Russian CHILDREN’s book) and installing Putin’s right hand marionette as its President by the name of Aibolit (another well known Russian CHILDREN’s book character, Dr. Aibolit and loosely translated play on a sound one makes when sick, Dr. OhItHurts!).

Maxine Waters agreed this Russian aggression must stop now! She offered help in overturning Limpopo’s new “dictator”.

The Limpopo river divides South Africa from Zim. It is a real province of South Africa, and rather beautiful bushveld.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speaking of The North:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).

Are you taking suggestions?

Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible

Chris said:

foxinsoxuk said:

PlatoSaid said:

Fake news prank http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/hah-russian-phone-pranksters-persuade-maxine-waters-russian-marionette-invaded-limpopo-video/#disqus_thread

"Yesterday well known Russian pair of phone pranksters, Vovan (Vladimir Kuznetsov) and Lexus (Alexei Stoliarov), placed a phone call to U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) pretending to be Prime Minister Groisman They discussed another Russian aggression in state of Limpopo (made up name from well known Russian CHILDREN’s book) and installing Putin’s right hand marionette as its President by the name of Aibolit (another well known Russian CHILDREN’s book character, Dr. Aibolit and loosely translated play on a sound one makes when sick, Dr. OhItHurts!).

Maxine Waters agreed this Russian aggression must stop now! She offered help in overturning Limpopo’s new “dictator”.

The Limpopo river divides South Africa from Zim. It is a real province of South Africa, and rather beautiful bushveld.

Probably referring to the well known Russian children's author, Rudya Kiplinski.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speaking of The North:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).

Are you taking suggestions?

Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speaking of The North:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).

Are you taking suggestions?

Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible

Jolly good. However, if you've not yet done it then...

Birmingham Int > Aberystwyth
Aberystwyth > Devils Bridge > Aberystwyth (On what was BR's last steam railway and first privatization)
Aberystwyth clifftop railway
Aberystwyth > Civilization.

...would be a reasonable day out. Just try and avoid the start and end of terms.

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

wasd said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speaking of The North:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition (so far). Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).

Are you taking suggestions?

Ummmm.... kinda. But I'm actually trying to colour in as much of my Bradshaw's Guide Baker Atlas as possible

Skipton to Appleby these next two days is to be recommended.