politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-elect

'After Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, appeared on BBC’s Question Time, Snell tweeted: “Diane, you are great, then you say something incredibly arsingly stupid.”.. '

The first part of this comment is probably more damaging than the second part.

FPT: @isam Found it - @Midlandrob Has them as a 30% chance. If I was making that assessment I'd be laying out around £500 to win £30k I think. I think this is somewhat an overestimate.

Sorry that I missed the Hilary Benn thread yesterday. I agree with Don.

(Says the member of Leeds Central CLP!)

More on topic, Linfit Brewery produce Janet Street Porter.

http://www.pintley.com/beer/Janet-Street-Porter/5783/

https://twitter.com/radiocitytalk/status/831492310307311616

The Groan doesn't seem to have completely caught up yet, unless Guido is being overimaginative:



or the 'I'm not from Stoke, how should I know' one, which is around somewhere.

As I see it, the Diane Abbott one is a pocket biography.

Popcorn.

This guy doesn't sound like he is going to be much of an asset to Parliament.

Meanwhile Labour is down to 14% in Scotland - wow

I will forever be grateful that twitter did not exist when I was growing up. The thought of my daft teenage ramblings being stored in perpetuity for people to delve into at their leisure. I felt the Kent youth PCC was hard done by for exactly this reason, 10 years earlier no-one would have had anything to pick up on.

We are heading towards automation of politicians, if nothing else.

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

Labour lose Glasgow?

Pulpstar said:

FPT: @isam Found it - @Midlandrob Has them as a 30% chance. If I was making that assessment I'd be laying out around £500 to win £30k I think. I think this is somewhat an overestimate.

If i thought a 69/1 chance should be 9/4 (ish) I think I'd have most of my betting account/all I was allowed on

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

FPT: @isam Found it - @Midlandrob Has them as a 30% chance. If I was making that assessment I'd be laying out around £500 to win £30k I think. I think this is somewhat an overestimate.

If i thought a 69/1 chance should be 9/4 (ish) I think I'd have most of my betting account/all I was allowed on

Yes but I have teeny tiny balls

Patrick said:

edmundintokyo said:

I'm sure Mike's correct on what they should have done but it'll be a real shame if the only people who can be elected to office are people end up being either mind-numbingly on-message from the age of eight or incapable of operating Twitter.

See post 3 in this chain.

I saw it. If your Twitter stream is mostly composed of arseclowns, it's because you chose to follow arseclowns. My Twitter stream is an incredible learning resource, full of exceptionally clever and incisive people.

edmundintokyo said:

Patrick said:

edmundintokyo said:

I'm sure Mike's correct on what they should have done but it'll be a real shame if the only people who can be elected to office are people end up being either mind-numbingly on-message from the age of eight or incapable of operating Twitter.

See post 3 in this chain.

I saw it. If your Twitter stream is mostly composed of arseclowns, it's because you chose to follow arseclowns. My Twitter stream is an incredible learning resource, full of exceptionally clever and incisive people.

My twitter stream has precisely zero arseclowns in it. Likewise my Facebook. Admittedly precisely zero clever or incisive people either. :-)

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

Scottish Tories up 13% on 2013

Repost from end of last thread:

Here is a video of the hustings at Whitehaven yesterday - you can all make up your own minds who is the best candidate to represent Copeland at Westminster. Much of it is tedious and I recommend using the fast forward button occasionally - of course I have to admit bias but personally I would recommend you do not miss the bits involving Rebecca Hanson. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1YpKkdrdPnjGj

Another little gem.

https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/26582391637

Edit: beaten to it by Scott.

tpfkar said:

I will forever be grateful that twitter did not exist when I was growing up. The thought of my daft teenage ramblings being stored in perpetuity for people to delve into at their leisure. I felt the Kent youth PCC was hard done by for exactly this reason, 10 years earlier no-one would have had anything to pick up on.

We are heading towards automation of politicians, if nothing else.

I could sympathise with Paris Brown. The fault lay with the idiot who hired her, Ann Barnes.

isam said:

dr_spyn said:

Gareth Snell on Andy Burnham.

https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/806620915261906948

The Gail Tilsley one is the worst. I am
surprised labour people aren't demanding he be deselected as candidate. They must implicitly approve of women bashing...

Not seen that one, what did he say about her?

tpfkar said:

I will forever be grateful that twitter did not exist when I was growing up. The thought of my daft teenage ramblings being stored in perpetuity for people to delve into at their leisure. I felt the Kent youth PCC was hard done by for exactly this reason, 10 years earlier no-one would have had anything to pick up on.

We are heading towards automation of politicians, if nothing else.

Either that or the electorate is going to get more accepting of past controversial statements.

That said, some of Mr Snell's forthright opinions are very recent.

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

Scottish Tories up 13% on 2013

2012.

Indy parties up 17pts.

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again

@BarristerSecret: He misspoke. He meant to say "at the Bowling Green massacre". twitter.com/independent/st…

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/831501257768574977

No wonder Nuttall is standing in Stoke and nowhere near Liverpool.

Patrick said:

edmundintokyo said:

Patrick said:

edmundintokyo said:

I'm sure Mike's correct on what they should have done but it'll be a real shame if the only people who can be elected to office are people end up being either mind-numbingly on-message from the age of eight or incapable of operating Twitter.

See post 3 in this chain.

I saw it. If your Twitter stream is mostly composed of arseclowns, it's because you chose to follow arseclowns. My Twitter stream is an incredible learning resource, full of exceptionally clever and incisive people.

My twitter stream has precisely zero arseclowns in it. Likewise my Facebook. Admittedly precisely zero clever or incisive people either. :-)

You should try Twitter. Seriously. Make an anonymous account, pick something obscure you're interested in and follow people who talk about that.

It appears stoke by-election is between a trump tribute act and Walter Mitty!!!!

As if stoke doesn't have enough problems with one of these two being their representative in parliament.

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/radiocitytalk/status/831492310307311616

Did he explain how this falsehood got on there? A bungling functionary did it without his permission?

Seems to happen to poor old Paul quite a lot. He should check some of the stuff being put out in his name. Can we be sure he is actually UKIP leader? Maybe he is still a Tory and someone just made the UKIP stuff up.

Ishmael_Z said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

htts://twitter.com/radiocitytalk/status/831492310307311616

Did he explain how this falsehood got on there? A bungling functionary did it without his permission?

He says at about 1:20 that it wasn't him personally.

It's his direct quote, though.

theakes said:

Interest in Lib Dems at Stoke seems to be rising, even on this site!.

Just seen a picture of the rounds to be delivered. I hope Labour and UKIP have a decent ground game in place for their sakes.

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/831501257768574977

No wonder Nuttall is standing in Stoke and nowhere near Liverpool.

Wasn't his back-up plan to use Stoke as a warm up for Burnham's seat?

Pulpstar said:

If ever there was an inevitable hammering in the works, which people generally think must have already happened but hasn't; Scottish Labour's upcoming shellacking must surely be it.

Weird to think they control Glasgow Council. You'll get long odds on them winning there this time.

Prepare for Union Jacks to be removed from official buildings as the nationalists capture Scotland's biggest city. Tick, tock, tick, tock...

On Topic Gareth Snell is a complete dud.

From his sexist abuse to calling his leader an IRA supporting Hamas sympathiser to being Hunts bag carrier with even more right wing views to calling Brexit a pile of shit.

Dud Dud fookin DUD

FrancisUrquhart said:

It appears stoke by-election is between a trump tribute act and Walter Mitty!!!!

As if stoke doesn't have enough problems with one of these two being their representative in parliament.

Yes, it is not clear what horrific crime Stoke has committed to deserve one of these two clowns as their MP.

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/831501257768574977

No wonder Nuttall is standing in Stoke and nowhere near Liverpool.

Wasn't his back-up plan to use Stoke as a warm up for Burnham's seat?

No chance of him getting elected in Leigh with those comments about. He might as well lead a campaign to bring back the Sun into newsagents there. I don't think they'll affect him too much in a Stoke BE though.

Leigh is in Greater Manchester, not Greater Liverpool. I would presume it's Wigan or Man Utd country.

Whatever next? We find that professor nutall isnt even a scouser and an illegal immigrant to boot?

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated. Will the good Labour WWC voters of Stoke really take a Guardian-approved view of his remarks?

@GarethSnell

“Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit

Massive pile of S***

Sloppy Brexit, Messy Brexit

Quit, Quit, Quit.”

What a gift for Labour Kipper waiverers.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Whatever next? We find that professor nutall isnt even a scouser and an illegal immigrant to boot?

Who reads the Guardian and eats quinoa for breakfast with his Iraqi muslim wife.

bigjohnowls said:

@GarethSnell

“Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit

Massive pile of S***

Sloppy Brexit, Messy Brexit

Quit, Quit, Quit.”

What a gift for Labour Kipper waiverers.

Getting your excuses in early John as your useless leader prepares to ship another safe seat to the Right?

david_herdson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

If that poll is accurate (and Panelbase are a reputable company) then that would be devastating for Labour. For comparison, the Conservatives won 13% of first preferences in 2012 and returned 115 councillors. Labour won 394 at the same elections.

Now, I accept that transfer-friendliness plays a significant role in STV and you can't read over directly from one election to another. All the same, if Scottish Labour does poll 14%, it's looking at losing 60%+ of its council base in a single blow.

Probably , the most inaccurate opinion poll ever published . As Independents will poll 10 -15% of the vote and get a similar number of councillors and the poll has them at 1% , place straight into the rubbish bin .

williamglenn said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/831501257768574977

No wonder Nuttall is standing in Stoke and nowhere near Liverpool.

Wasn't his back-up plan to use Stoke as a warm up for Burnham's seat?

Yes I believe so , I think if he loses Stoke he will need to reconsider.As a leader of a national party he is being becoming stranger by the day as is the Labour candidate,however he is not the leader.All good for the Lib Dems how ironic if there remain message wins in Stoke.

Jobabob said:

bigjohnowls said:

@GarethSnell

“Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit

Massive pile of S***

Sloppy Brexit, Messy Brexit

Quit, Quit, Quit.”

What a gift for Labour Kipper waiverers.

Getting your excuses in early John as your useless leader prepares to ship another safe seat to the Right?

As Sean T informed me yesterday, apparently UKIP are to the left on many issues....just none that win them any votes

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated. Will the good Labour WWC voters of Stoke really take a Guardian-approved view of his remarks?

If anything it'll endear him - gritty northern speak-yer-mind sense of humour. He's just acting how any northerner would when having to deal with the southern jessies.

AlastairMeeks said:

tpfkar said:

I will forever be grateful that twitter did not exist when I was growing up. The thought of my daft teenage ramblings being stored in perpetuity for people to delve into at their leisure. I felt the Kent youth PCC was hard done by for exactly this reason, 10 years earlier no-one would have had anything to pick up on.

We are heading towards automation of politicians, if nothing else.

Either that or the electorate is going to get more accepting of past controversial statements.

That said, some of Mr Snell's forthright opinions are very recent.

I believe the US military has finally come to its senses and scrapped its perfect service record requirement for promotion to the top echelons. The only way to have a perfect record is to never have tried to do something new or never to have had an original thought.

Not that I am saying Snell falls into this category - he seems a total idiot. But we must not require our politicians to have lily-white public records. That is the way to rule by mediocrity or - worse - by psychopaths.

Jobabob said:

Yorkcity said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

If ever there was an inevitable hammering in the works, which people generally think must have already happened but hasn't; Scottish Labour's upcoming shellacking must surely be it.

Weird to think they control Glasgow Council. You'll get long odds on them winning there this time.

Prepare for Union Jacks to be removed from official buildings as the nationalists capture Scotland's biggest city. Tick, tock, tick, tock...

Good we are all nationalist now Unionism is a dying game in Scotland Ireland and Europe.

Yes, good luck to the Scots. They should go for it, and any decent Englishman worth his salt should wish our neighbours and allies well.

I do I wanted them to gain independence in ,2014.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the effect of the Snell tweets, vulgar though they are, is being exaggerated. Will the good Labour WWC voters of Stoke really take a Guardian-approved view of his remarks?

Take a bow and this months Emily Thornberry award for a spectacular overhead kick in the groin to the WWC of Stoke

AlsoIndigo said:

I can't personally see the appeal of continuously telling everyone what is going on in my life, its just not that exciting. I have had a Twitter account for ages, but just for news links and watching other people making fools of themselves, but I have never tweeted.

You're doing it wrong.

david_herdson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

If that poll is accurate (and Panelbase are a reputable company) then that would be devastating for Labour. For comparison, the Conservatives won 13% of first preferences in 2012 and returned 115 councillors. Labour won 394 at the same elections.

Now, I accept that transfer-friendliness plays a significant role in STV and you can't read over directly from one election to another. All the same, if Scottish Labour does poll 14%, it's looking at losing 60%+ of its council base in a single blow.

As you imply, first preferences really aren't much use on their own in an STV election. Though having said that, I'm not sure 2nd preferences will be that much help to Labour this time -- I believe SNP voters give better ratings to Davidson than to Dugdale, and Scottish Tory voters give better ratings to Sturgeon than to Dugdale, which maybe indicates that many of those party's voters will rank the other above SLAB.

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Gareth Snell is a complete dud.

...calling his leader an IRA supporting Hamas sympathiser to being Hunts bag carrier with even more right wing views to calling Brexit a pile of shit...

Sounds pretty good to me.

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

If that poll is accurate (and Panelbase are a reputable company) then that would be devastating for Labour. For comparison, the Conservatives won 13% of first preferences in 2012 and returned 115 councillors. Labour won 394 at the same elections.

Now, I accept that transfer-friendliness plays a significant role in STV and you can't read over directly from one election to another. All the same, if Scottish Labour does poll 14%, it's looking at losing 60%+ of its council base in a single blow.

The one proviso about that poll is independent candidates who took c.11% of the vote in 2012, though not sure how you question for them. Shouldn't make much difference to headline figs for main parties in relation to each other though.

I've got a second proviso, which is I'm unclear whether we're seeing Panelbase's preferred take on the numbers or Wings Over Scotland's. The write-up, by the Rev. Stuart, reads as follows:

"Just before we get to them, a quick note on the stats. 83% of our respondents said they were “likely to vote” in the council elections – defined as rating your probability of doing so at either eight, nine or 10 out of 10.

It’s fairly stupendously unlikely that turnout will actually be anywhere near 83% – the figure in 2012 was 39.6%, and it only got to 52.8% even in 2007, when voters were at the polls anyway to vote in the Holyrood general election. So we’ve used the figures for “likely voters excluding Don’t Knows” in this post, because the chances are that in reality, people who don’t know who they’re voting for by now won’t vote at all."

Is the "we" here "Wings" or "Wings and Panelbase"?

One nugget stood out for me: 46% of Holyrood 2016 Labour voters now intend to vote for someone else.

nunu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

'St Valentine honeymoon blow for SNP with only 15pt rise on previous election'

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/831489161324556289

Scottish Tories up 13% on 2013

2012.

Indy parties up 17pts.

Scottish Ukip are shit. OK so the nationalist vote is taken by the SNP but under Scottish PR systems they should be able to get councillors and MSP's in every region. Their anti immigration anti E.U stance may not be as popular in Scotland but surely there are enough socially conservative people who think these are important issues for then to get 5-7% in every region.

You pretty much covered it in your first sentence - think Nuttall UKIP without the slick media operation, high moral rigour and admin efficiency. They've just decided to keep their ex chairman in his publicly funded post despite him being convicted of being a sex pest and being put on the sex offenders registers.

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nuttall nabbed again:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/831501257768574977

No wonder Nuttall is standing in Stoke and nowhere near Liverpool.

Wasn't his back-up plan to use Stoke as a warm up for Burnham's seat?

No chance of him getting elected in Leigh with those comments about. He might as well lead a campaign to bring back the Sun into newsagents there. I don't think they'll affect him too much in a Stoke BE though.

Leigh is in Greater Manchester, not Greater Liverpool. I would presume it's Wigan or Man Utd country.

Leigh is Leigh RL. Football mixed, but NOT Wigan Athletic!