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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but reme
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park
It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope.
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Is he the same Mr Flynn who was asked to assist the discourteous people in Galloway in 1997?
IIRC Leave had lots of small bets, while Remain had fewer large ones which 'skewed' the odds?
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/831278213649354753
Trump expert Piers Morgan advises "Get used to it" Exactly...
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/02/michael-flynn-resigns?mbid=social_twitter
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12322786.Mr_Smith_steals_the_TV_show/
Impeachment this year ?
How rude you are before proven wrong is key I think, it's less embarrassing en to admit being wrong. Or you can just react to everything in the exact same way, with no acknowledgement, which as you say is a tactic some use. It's particularly amusing when people are mockingly dismissive about outcomes in an identical way to when the mockingly dismissed something else, which then happened.
How rude you are before proven wrong is key I think, it's less embarrassing en to admit being wrong. Or you can just react to everything in the exact same way, with no acknowledgement, which as you say is a tactic some use. It's particularly amusing when people are mockingly dismissive about outcomes in an identical way to when the mockingly dismissed something else, which then happened.
I could see a weird result there.
There have been rumours for a couple of weeks that the Trump administration is looking for a return to the Moon by 2020 (*).
There seem to be three options:
1) A slingshot around the moon (circumlunar trajectory).
2) Orbit around the moon then return.
3) A landing on the moon.
Of these, NASA is planning an unmanned test of their new SLS rocket next year, which will fulfil the first two of these. However that version of the SLS is not the final one, and the next mission (manned) is not due to no earlier than 2021.
The first mission is designed to test systems, including a faster reentry needed for return from the Moon. The second will be manned. But AFAIK no-one is designing a lunar lander, and that will be massively costly.
Personally there seems to be little point in going there and not landing, especially from a science point of view. The US could design a manned lander in three or four years, at a rather large cost. Fortunately this time the US may have a choice of a couple of heavy-lift launchers.
*If* they decide to do the brave thing. You know, to make America great again ...
(*) Naturally enough, before the next presidential election.
This week Corbyn goes to Stoke and May to Copeland. Labour expects to win the former and the Tories expect to win the latter. They may be wrong of course.
- Betting markets have become more important as a way of predicting results
- He knows that some funds had private polling pointing to a Leave win
- The amount of money required to skew markets and send false signals to rivals is small compared to the amounts to be made
With all that in mind, why wouldn't they do it?
I think that guy is a binary options system scammer.
Stoke - who knows. Labour getting its vote out is the imponderable. I had assumed an easy hold, but their candidate is a complete prat. Really, Westminster has already exceeded its quota. But is Nuttall any better? Tragic that the Bus Pass Elvis Party is no longer around in our hour of need....
If I were Farron I'd be focusing on Stoke and playing the plague on both your houses card. Trouble is he will probably repel Leavers too much, and by design.
If I had my way it would be a two week break in October with a shorter summer. But I doubt if that will ever happen - the teaching unions would go mental. For me, half term is next week and a trip to Italy which I am much looking forward to.
However, at this moment I am off to work to do some marking. Have a good day everyone!
Not sure I believe that Conservative percentage. Plausible they could win, but heavy favourites in a three horse race, given the record of governments taking by-election seats from the opposition? Optimistic.
In case anyone wasn't on yesterday evening, the paperback edition of Kingdom Asunder is out now: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kingdom-Asunder-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy/dp/1542545803/
If you want to get your hands on nine inches of excitement, that will thrill you for ten hours before a stunning climax, do buy it.
Brinsworth & Catcliffe/Sunderland, both targeted by the Lib Dem ground game. Both quite leavey and not a million miles from Stoke in terms of social metrics I'm guessing.
LD Adam Carter 2000 [66.0%; +50.4%]
Labour 519 [17.1%;-26.2%]
UKIP 389 [12.8%; -16.4%]
Conservative 91 [3.0%; -8.8%]
Green 30 [1.0%; +1.0%]
32% turnout
Majority 1481
Votes: 3030 (9470 eligible votes)
That Sunderland ward:
Bryan George Foster - UKIP: 343
Helmut Izaks - Green: 23
Stephen Francis O’Brien - Lib Dem: 824 (45% of the vote)
Gary Edward Waller - Labour: 458
Gavin William Christopher Wilson - Con: 184
Total votes cast: 1,832
Turnout: 23.8% (7700 eligible votes)
So of 17170 eligible votes, the Lib Dems got 2824.
In Stoke there are 63000 eligible votes. 6000 could well be enough, given the splits. The Lib Dems might get 6000 votes - they are the only candidate fielding a non Brexit candidate
Stoke-on-Trent
Votes cast: 117,680 (65.7% turnout)
Remain: 36,027
Stoke on Trent Central on a 65.7% turnout gets ~ 41,400 eligible votes. The seat voted 35% to remain which is 14,490 votes.
So the yellow peril need ~ 42% of the remain vote to come out 'just this once' and vote. It isn't likely, but Betfair's current 60-1 looks like good value to me.
I remember PB going wild for Tony Lit way back in the 2007 by-election. PB Tories had him winning even after polls closed.
He came third.
The limp-wristed Archsocialist trying to alter the determination of Easter's date to suit schools is bloody daft.
First one gone (Flynn). First of many over next two years. Then impeachment with a bit of luck.
Schools do talk to each other though and it ought to be possible within an area to give it a go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Act_1928
And of course politicians and bishops have been messing around with the date of Easter since at least the seventh century.
FWIW, I think Labour are too short in both seats. They should be clear favourites in Stoke and while Con should still be favourites in Copeland, I wouldn't be backing anywhere south of 4/5.
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/831417439447564290
The first chapter does have a woman kicking a man in the head during a discussion about arranged marriage, bridal kidnap, and fornication.
Mr. Meeks, fiddling with the date for scholastic or religious reasons is one thing. Messing about with it because of school holidays is pathetic. Where's the faith in that? Oh, we'll just stick it here because it's convenient for schools.
Mr. Thompson, quite. [If you removed the bits that Christianity, or Islam, stole from other religions there'd be precious little left. No Christmas, no rising from the dead, no shiny stone in Mecca].
My old school. Always was a weird place.
Also a bit annoyed with Hogg. I was about to back him to be top try scorer in the last match but realised I'd misread the market (it was to be first). So I didn't back him. And he scored first, the sod.
Anyone name them - without googling?
Edited extra bit: ahem, misread that, thought it was the world...
New entries - Denmark, Spain, Germany.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
Morris - it's a waste of time and causes scheduling issues with staff any projects. Fix it.
(although small prize for Denmark - they are on lowish side - at 40%)
He is milking his utter crapness and looks like he will make lots of money out of it.
Mr. Borough, a little Danish prize does sound nice on Valentine's Day.
Mr. Bob, Jesus doesn't rise from the dead at your convenience. Humbug to your heathen secularism.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
There’s a good argument for a Christmas/Midwinter/NewYear holiday since that’s been recognised as a feast time since well before Christianity. However, the movability of Easter is a pain.
It’s also a pain to parents when there are two or more children in a family and they attend schools with different holidays.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/tory-mps-campaign-for-independent-candidate-zac-goldsmith-for-ri/
“The reason the Conservative party nationally did not put a candidate in Richmond and Kingston is because every single councillor and the association as a whole let it by known by sending a message to the Prime Minister and the Conservative chairman that if there was a candidate they would still back me.”
Finland, somewhat to my surprise, is at 63%. All but doubled since 2008. Nokia effect?
Latvia?
Maybe they are as mad as they sound and they believe he will do it.