politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-ele

Recidivist said:

ThreeQuidder said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?

They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.

True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)

Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.

Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.

Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!

Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.

What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.

People generally don't revisit big constitutional changes. If Scotland had voted for independence, that would be that. Rejoining the UK wouldn't be on the table. Most Remain Conservatives are now pretty reconciled to leaving, added to the 52% who voted Leave.

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dadge said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

Ok cheers, I didn't even know anyone but the big 4 were standing!

Don't be misled by the presence of two Independents on the ballot paper. http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/revealed-final-list-of-candidates-for-the-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30100620-detail/story.html Neither represent the Independents who run the council. One, Akram, is sane but is standing as a representative of a local Muslim association; the other, Fielding, is, well, see for yourself: https://abolishmcrm.com/

Golly.
At least La Fielding is an equal opportunities hater of Jews & Muslims, a true anti-semite.

It's a good way to remind ourselves that, no matter how fraught things might get here from time to time, we are all comparatively sane

I'm sitting here in my kilt, stripped to the waist & a saltire painted on my face, but I take your point.

No saltire on the bare chest as well?

What with the lion rampant tatoo, I think that would be overkill.

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Re local elections I have voted lib dem on several occassions as they did do 'local' very well but not at GE where I vote conservative apart from Blair in 97 and O2. More recently the conservatives have performed well in the Assembly and locally.

If the lib dems are picking up the remain vote it will be interesting to see how this diminishes once A50 is served and remain becomes impossible and converts to re-join.

Yesterday my son, visiting us from Canada, wanted an antibiotic. He called at our medical centre and was seen by a doctor after about half an hour and following the consultation paid a £20 fee. It was seemless apparently.

On one of my trips to New Zealand I consulted my son's doctor (he was resident in New Zealand then) and I paid £45 fee.

This whole row over visitors paying a fee for using the NHS seems to be a nonsense, at least here in Wales

The logic of voting LibDem at the moment is to send a message to May that you don't want the hard nuts in the Tory Party to get free rein in putting immigration and their delusions about sovereignty before the interests of our economy. That isn't going to go away when A50 is served; probably the reverse.

Yes exactly this. I don't want to reverse the decision or block Brexit, but that doesn't mean I want to just let the John Redwood's of the world have their way entirely. The invertebrate Corbyn is providing no opposition whatsoever, so that only really leaves the Lib Dems to put pressure on the Tories.

May may even be grateful for it - much like Cameron blaming things he supported on the liberals in coalition, no tory leader wants to be controlled solely by the Bastards. Renewed Lib Dem pressure would at least give her justification to go for a semi-hard brexit rather than fully.

That said, I do think the LD's need to switch their policy proposals to "we will fight to keep us in EEA/we will rejoin EEA" which is much more workable than a policy to block brexit or rejoin the EU.

Recidivist said:

ThreeQuidder said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?

They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.

True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)

Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.

Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.

Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!

Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.

What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.

There is next to zero chance of rejoining the EU now, at most we would rejoin the EEA. The British people do not like being told they are wrong

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.

I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/how-the-winds-of-brexit-could-shipwreck-may-mr5dsclsm

Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.

Except May is in this week's Newstatesman repeating that Brexit means a hard and clean Brexit. She has spelt out what it means in recent speeches - we are leaving the single market.

If we were really going for a cliff-edge, hard Brexit, we would not be ratifying the Unified Patent Court agreement. That gives an important role to the ECJ. A deal will be done because it suits nobody - except swivel-eyed hardliners in Brussels and Westminster - for one not to be done.

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

ThreeQuidder said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?

They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.

True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)

Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.

Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.

Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!

Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.

What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.

People generally don't revisit big constitutional changes. If Scotland had voted for independence, that would be that. Rejoining the UK wouldn't be on the table. Most Remain Conservatives are now pretty reconciled to leaving, added to the 52% who voted Leave.

I'm relaxed (although it would be pointless and disruptive) to having a 2nd or 3rd referendum.

Leave would simply win by a much bigger margin.

ThreeQuidder said:

Recidivist said:

ThreeQuidder said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Dadge said:

I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?

They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.

True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)

Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.

Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.

Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!

Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.

What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.

"Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics" is just the old "Tories are dying out" claim recast. It is illogical here too.

Do you really think rejoining is inevitable, when that will mean the euro + Schengen?

33% voted to Leave in 1975, compared to 52% last year. Those declining demographics are still going strong.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, think Scotland might beat France tomorrow?

Better for England if they don't... but I'd quite like to see it.

I think there's a decent chance, confidence is all with Scotland.
France imploding and getting booed by their fans would help of course.

PlatoSaid said:

I posted this at end of the last thread, but since I'm still chuckling over the epic ding dong between Coulter and Guru Murthy - thought others would enjoy a giggle.

The two couldn't be further apart

https://youtu.be/-F52ZqO7lj0

One is a human being, the other is an android.

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Mortimer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Mortimer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

From all that I can understand, this is entirely due to the weakness of Labour.

I just did not see a path to victory for Labour even if they chose a strong leaver.

And then they selected Gareth Snell....

I don't think the Tories will get too many voting UKIP tactically in Stoke (and they probably don't want to). Tories are famously reluctant to tactically vote, they are up in the polls nationally, Leavers like May, and their candidate is a local councillor, albeit 25.

I think Shadsys 8/1 on UKIP less than 20% in Stoke is a reasonable punt.

This Tory would encourage tactical voting in Stoke. Another Leaver in commons to drown out the frothing Remainerism would be useful.

But more seriously, I don't see how Labour can win and I don't see how UKIP can lose it.

Less than 20%? I'd want 50/1 on that.

Activist Leavers possibly, but if you look over multiple elections you see the same picture. Tories rarely vote tactically, even where they cannot win, and risk putting in Labour. They have a high floor to their vote.

UKIP have

http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/big-issue-you-tell-us-what-the-major-factors-are-that-will-decide-city-by-election/story-30121292-detail/story.html

Sarah Jones has had the same leaflet delivered 10 times!!! I did say those Lib Dems activists were just dumping them, was only joking though!

It doesn't say party, could be the kippers wanting to get back to the pub quickly.

Yes I know. The other day someone said Lib Dem activists were posting an insane number of leaflets and I joked they were dumping them. Someone is, maybe its not them

PlatoSaid said:

rottenborough said:

Washington Post writer predicts a two year presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-two-year-presidency/2017/02/10/32c2e4ce-efd9-11e6-9973-c5efb7ccfb0d_story.html?utm_term=.a140de16121f

Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.

The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well

Unfortunately it's more likely to be 8 years than 2.

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

ThomasNashe said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

x

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Sad

It sure is. Can a proven liar be believed when he says he has changed his mind on privatising the NHS?

If he wins in Stoke it will show just how catastrophically poor Corbyn Labour is.

You sure do hate the enemy more than show any positivity for your own cause, if there is one.

Why not deal with the point rather than attack the messenger?

The ffective'

Paul Nuttall statements of fact.

To be fair, Liverpool Hope is a university:

http://www.hope.ac.uk/

Yep, fair enough - Nuttall fibbed about having a PhD from it.

.. and he did play for Tranmere Rovers if we are going to be picky

Not as a professional - as he claimed.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2368990/new-ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-caught-out-claiming-to-be-a-professional-footballer-on-his-cv/

I thought you would be more careful what you posted after Blacking up Gina Miller with a bone through her nose. I understand you want this one to be true also, maybe 2nd time lucky

Professor Nuttall's problem is that a lot of what he has said - or which has been said on his behalf - turns out to be untrue. That opens the way for questions to be asked about other claims he has made. I don't know whether he was at Hillsbrough and have never said otherwise.

You have repeatedly posted things that you wanted to be true that were untrue. Even though you did not apologise for doing so, are we to treat everything you link to as libellous propaganda? Or do we accept that it isn't always as clever to exaggerate the mistakes of people you disagree with as we think it is?

You can treat what I post in any way that you like. If you want to believe Paul Nuttall has not told fibs about himself that is entirely up to you.

I already do treat it in the way I like!

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.

I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/how-the-winds-of-brexit-could-shipwreck-may-mr5dsclsm

Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.

Yes, pretty much. Good post.

AlsoIndigo said:

rottenborough said:

Washington Post writer predicts a two year presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-two-year-presidency/2017/02/10/32c2e4ce-efd9-11e6-9973-c5efb7ccfb0d_story.html?utm_term=.a140de16121f

Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.

Because despite Trump being apparently nuttier than a Snickers Bar, he has a lot of clever and successful people behind him, and they are not there because they like the cut of his suit. There is some larger plan at work here, its just not become apparent yet.

I think it is apparent what some of the plan is: populist american nationalism. Roll back on globalisation, re-inflate the domestic economy, get tough on migration.

More disturbing is what plan is the heads of people like Bannon - who appears to believe that he is there to destroy the state and work towards a "cleansing" war.

Dadge said:

PlatoSaid said:

rottenborough said:

Washington Post writer predicts a two year presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-two-year-presidency/2017/02/10/32c2e4ce-efd9-11e6-9973-c5efb7ccfb0d_story.html?utm_term=.a140de16121f

Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.

The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well

Unfortunately it's more likely to be 8 years than 2.

The mid terms will be the first port of call for Democrats

My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?.
When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.

theakes said:

My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?.
When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.

55 on BF.

ThreeQuidder said:

Recidivist said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.

What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.

The 15% number, incidentally, comes from polls showing that to be the level of European identity within the UK. eg (from random google search) http://whatukthinks.org/eu/analysis/do-we-feel-european-and-does-it-matter/

Pretty close to the current LD poll rating then

rottenborough said:

theakes said:

My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?.
When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.

55 on BF.

...and that's only because I just took everything from 80 to 60 on the back of Mark Seniors confidence!

I reckon the Nuttall Hillsborough accusation has been started by Hope not Hate or Momentum. When I campaigned in Clacton for UKIP, Hope not Hate had people wearing UKIP badges shouting racist stuff in the local MacDonalds. They have nothing positive to say, just warped students with not much else better to do.

https://twitter.com/britainisshit/status/830382706416562176

Sean_F said:

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.

I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/how-the-winds-of-brexit-could-shipwreck-may-mr5dsclsm

Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.

Agreed.

Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).

So the

There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.

We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM

How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.

What would attract people to Frankfurt? It's a comparative backwater.

Alles in ordnung.

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/britainisshit/status/830382706416562176

He was Bungle too wasn't he?

Next he'll be saying he doesn't really want his country to be independent!

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/britainisshit/status/830382706416562176

He was Bungle too wasn't he?

Next he'll be saying he doesn't really want his country to be independent!

Yer awfy defensive about a party that's supposedly fulfilled its destiny.

https://twitter.com/Glenn_Kitson/status/830384706260725764

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/britainisshit/status/830382706416562176

He was Bungle too wasn't he?

Next he'll be saying he doesn't really want his country to be independent!

Yer awfy defensive about a party that's supposedly fulfilled its destiny.

https://twitter.com/Glenn_Kitson/status/830384706260725764

Here is the Bungle denial

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-mep-paul-nuttall-denies-7959379

So that means he was Bungle right?

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

Agreed.

Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).

So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.

It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).

There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.

We were told that there would be a 'steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt' when the Euro was created nearly 20 years ago.

Take a look at this, authored in part by Chirs Huhne and Will Hutton:

http://tilveran-i-esb.blog.is/users/24/tilveran-i-esb/files/why_britain_should_join_the_euro_rl334d.pdf

' Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence. Minor details of regulation can be used to advantage one centre over another, or to slow the progress of London to the dominance it would be likely to enjoy if financial services were completely liberalised. Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro- zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London. '

Has any of this happened yet ?

' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.

“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”

...

A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”

Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/

By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?

https://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs

I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.

SeanT said:

Yes, there's a good chance we will be like Norway but Called Something Amazingly Different So No One Can Say We're Like Norway.

The EU doesn't have to protect a huge trade surplus with Norway. We are in a far better negotiating position than Norway.

View_From_Cumbria said:

dixiedean said:

Dadge said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

Ok cheers, I didn't even know anyone but the big 4 were standing!

Don't be misled by the presence of two Independents on the ballot paper. http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/revealed-final-list-of-candidates-for-the-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30100620-detail/story.html Neither represent the Independents who run the council. One, Akram, is sane but is standing as a representative of a local Muslim association; the other, Fielding, is, well, see for yourself: https://abolishmcrm.com/

Good grief! Is that a spoof?

"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !

perhaps an attempt to hit the record books by getting no votes at all!

It's all rather "Springtime for Hitler!

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Has any of this happened yet ?

' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.

“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”

...

A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”

Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/

By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.

London's a nice place to live and work in, if you're rich. Rich people wouldn't readily give up its shops restaurants and cultural amenities.

Business is business...

Freggles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?

https://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs

I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.

You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.

another_richard said:

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

Agreed.

Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).

So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.

It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).

There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.

We were told that there would be a 'steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt' when the Euro was created nearly 20 years ago.

Take a look at this, authored in part by Chirs Huhne and Will Hutton:

http://tilveran-i-esb.blog.is/users/24/tilveran-i-esb/files/why_britain_should_join_the_euro_rl334d.pdf

' Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence. Minor details of regulation can be used to advantage one centre over another, or to slow the progress of London to the dominance it would be likely to enjoy if financial services were completely liberalised. Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro- zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London. '

I was a colleague of the Chief Manager for money transmission at one of the big four UK banks and he was always invited (ex-officio) to Euro currency meetings of continental bankers and regulators because of his expertise and UK input.

UK bankers always have a seat at the meetings and influence whether formal or informal.

I don't know if there are any on here who know the area. But why are the "WOW" counties around Milwaukee so Republican. Obama even did better in the rural counties whilst making very little head way in these three counties. They seem to be very different to Detroit, Philly or Chicago suburbs. Is it just white flight and racial segregation? I notice these suburbs are whiter than the other mid western immediate suburbs. Or is it wealth? or something else? Thanx.

PlatoSaid said:

Freggles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?

ttps://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs

I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.

And your inability to read 90 days pause to review vetting - but hallucinate *indefinitely ban* to fit your personal bias doesn't make you credible

Oh dear. Good thing you had no credibility left to lose:

"(c) Pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f), I hereby proclaim that the entry of nationals of Syria as refugees is detrimental to the interests of the United States and thus suspend any such entry until such time as I have determined that sufficient changes have been made to the USRAP to ensure that admission of Syrian refugees is consistent with the national interest."

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/index.html?client=ms-android-motorola

View_From_Cumbria said:

dixiedean said:

Dadge said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

Ok cheers, I didn't even know anyone but the big 4 were standing!

Don't be misled by the presence of two Independents on the ballot paper. http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/revealed-final-list-of-candidates-for-the-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30100620-detail/story.html Neither represent the Independents who run the council. One, Akram, is sane but is standing as a representative of a local Muslim association; the other, Fielding, is, well, see for yourself: https://abolishmcrm.com/

Good grief! Is that a spoof?

"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !

Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."

rottenborough said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

dixiedean said:

Dadge said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

Ok cheers, I didn't even know anyone but the big 4 were standing!

Don't be misled by the presence of two Independents on the ballot paper. http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/revealed-final-list-of-candidates-for-the-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30100620-detail/story.html Neither represent the Independents who run the council. One, Akram, is sane but is standing as a representative of a local Muslim association; the other, Fielding, is, well, see for yourself: https://abolishmcrm.com/

Good grief! Is that a spoof?

"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !

Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."

and

"At least I can help them to put a few things right before its my turn to be Prime Minister."

murali_s said:

Freggles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?

https://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs

I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.

You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.

Or leftwingers that are hard of reading

I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order

rottenborough said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

dixiedean said:

Dadge said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.

Ok cheers, I didn't even know anyone but the big 4 were standing!

Don't be misled by the presence of two Independents on the ballot paper. http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/revealed-final-list-of-candidates-for-the-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30100620-detail/story.html Neither represent the Independents who run the council. One, Akram, is sane but is standing as a representative of a local Muslim association; the other, Fielding, is, well, see for yourself: https://abolishmcrm.com/

Good grief! Is that a spoof?

"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !

Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."

Is this candidate an admirer of David Irving, or is it a spoof website to try and make Nuttall look more leftish?

AlsoIndigo said:

murali_s said:

Freggles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?

https://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs

I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.

You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.

Or leftwingers that are hard of reading

I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order

That is a different section of the order. Three is a separate provision specific to Syria. Apologize or slink off into the grass

surbiton said:

Lib Dems should not be ignored in either Stoke or Copeland.

They did worse in both seats than they did nationally at the last general election and both voted heavily Leave, if the LDs win either Farron is heading for Downing Street!