politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The music stops. Who would grab the chair if Jeremy Corbyn ste

First! Are we really going to have a third leadership election in as many years?

Third! Like SLAB......

Ed Miliband's legacy is going to haunt Labour for at least a decade.

RobD said:

First! Are we really going to have a third leadership election in as many years?

Why not? The money raised from the £25 voters would be very useful to the party. Indeed, there's an argument for having a contested election every twelve months anyway on that basis.

Of course, it would look rather stupid, self-indulgent and childish but they already look stupid, self-indulgent and childish now. At least this way they would be rich as well.

Can I make the case for Jon Ashworth?

I have been watching him for sometime as a local MP (parachuted into Leicester South following Peter Soulsbys election as mayor of Leicester). A Brownite politically, and well connected with unions and NEC. Support needs to be from more than the PLP. He is one of the few mainstream MPs to sit in Corbyns Shadow Cabinet, and has the Health portfolio, one close to Labours heart and the public sector unions. On Brexit he seems to be pragmatic, and followed the whip despite his own constituency voting Remain. He has that John Major like quality of rising without trace.

I backed him some time ago, but his rise continues, with active campaigning in the byelections as well as other recent appearances such as this:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/30/alcoholic-father-inspires-shadow-health-minister-jonathan-ashworth&ved=0ahUKEwjnns23-YTSAhVKJ8AKHRdGCqYQFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNGVSSGMmpxsZ7BoYIJeWvp3EDfFHw&sig2=ce8qxs426EKD0VAczv8SgQ

foxinsoxuk said:

Can I make the case for Jon Ashworth?

I have been watching him for sometime as a local MP (parachuted into Leicester South following Peter Soulsbys election as mayor of Leicester). A Brownite politically, and well connected with unions and NEC. Support needs to be from more than the PLP. He is one of the few mainstream MPs to sit in Corbyns Shadow Cabinet, and has the Health portfolio, one close to Labours heart and the public sector unions. On Brexit he seems to be pragmatic, and followed the whip despite his own constituency voting Remain. He has that John Major like quality of rising without trace.

I backed him some time ago, but his rise continues, with active campaigning in the byelections as well as other recent appearances such as this:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/30/alcoholic-father-inspires-shadow-health-minister-jonathan-ashworth&ved=0ahUKEwjnns23-YTSAhVKJ8AKHRdGCqYQFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNGVSSGMmpxsZ7BoYIJeWvp3EDfFHw&sig2=ce8qxs426EKD0VAczv8SgQ

SPAD with no experience outside of politics. I think that hurts his chances with membership....

Charles said:

(disclosure, I backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at odds of up to 350/1 last October).

Is that disclosure, or boasting, or winding up @TheScreamingEagles ?

Alastair and myself are no longer playing that game of oneupmanship after another PBer pointed out he backed Miss Long-Bailey at odds of over 500/1.

Has Brexit saved the NHS?

Is there an argument that it might just be worth the centre right of the party waiting this out a bit longer? Firstly, the current shambles is discrediting not only Corbyn but the left more generally. Secondly, the continued musical chairs in the shadow cabinet is making it impossible for those who might have come to prominence that way to have any impact. And thirdly, and probably most importantly, there is evidence that the new members Corbyn brought in to enhance his win are drifting away and fighting each other.

As Alastair points out it is not enough for the centre to get nominated, they need to coalesce behind candidates that can appeal to the membership. If that membership is once again evolving into something slightly different then time would help.

Take someone like Chukka Umunna. He would have no problem being nominated but would have little appeal to the current membership. Only when they are convinced that a new start is needed after an almighty shambles and some of Corbyn's supporters have drifted away will he be a real prospect. We are not there yet, bad though things are.

Lib Dem vote increases of 40% and 20% to take two seats off the Tories, plus a rare UKIP gain (but it was in Clacton and from an Independent)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Fairford North (Cotswold) result:
LDEM: 68.1% (+40.2)
CON: 30.1% (-20.9)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Waterside (North Norfolk) result:
LDEM: 55.1% (+19.8)
CON: 34.8% (-4.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (+6.5)
LAB: 3.5% (-8.5)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Great & Little Oakley (Tendring) result:
UKIP: 36.8% (+14.1)
CON: 29.1% (+1.4)
LAB: 19.9% (+5.5)
LDEM: 14.1% (+14.1)
No Independent as prev.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Kingswood & Hazel Leys (Corby) result:
LAB: 64.6% (+10.3)
CON: 26.7% (+12.5)
GRN: 8.7% (-1.1)

OchEye said:

Considering that Corbyn has a massive person support from the membership of the LP, I don't think you should be looking in his direction for the next change of leader.
May is in considerable danger of being replaced. Conservative MP's are notorious in their support for holding the Executive to account. May's actions in trying to retain personal control of the Brexit timetable and negotiations without allowing MP's the right to question her, makes her look petty and as if she really has no idea of what she is doing. Though the Tory MP's are presently propping her up, that support could quickly vanish (along with the 30 odd MP's under investigation for electoral fraud and at least 3 others for potential damaging misdemeanours).
And then there is Sturgeon. There are a lot of her "suppoters" who are not very happy with her. Even her most faithful can see the flaws in her out UK, in EU arguments. If she doesn't pull the proverbial bunny out of the hat at the SNP conference in March, then Salmond will be making his weary way from Westminster to Holyrood to take up the reins of power, again.

Is this the Scottish Labour Party view? If so, it's an interesting insight.

MarqueeMark said:

What a pitiful lack of ability in the Labour ranks. Think - there's a job vacancy where you work. How many of them would you employ as a junior team member? Then, as your boss? Then, as your CEO? Yet these candidates are saying they are up to running the country.

Fire the head-hunter you've employed, and start the search afresh.

Same problem afflicts Tories. Politics simply doesn't attract the brightest or the best.

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

Is there an argument that it might just be worth the centre right of the party waiting this out a bit longer? Firstly, the current shambles is discrediting not only Corbyn but the left more generally. Secondly, the continued musical chairs in the shadow cabinet is making it impossible for those who might have come to prominence that way to have any impact. And thirdly, and probably most importantly, there is evidence that the new members Corbyn brought in to enhance his win are drifting away and fighting each other.

As Alastair points out it is not enough for the centre to get nominated, they need to coalesce behind candidates that can appeal to the membership. If that membership is once again evolving into something slightly different then time would help.

Take someone like Chukka Umunna. He would have no problem being nominated but would have little appeal to the current membership. Only when they are convinced that a new start is needed after an almighty shambles and some of Corbyn's supporters have drifted away will he be a real prospect. We are not there yet, bad though things are.

Ultra groomed metropolitan professionals are going to have to sit things out for many years in the current climate. Look for people who have done "proper jobs" and those from the school of hard knocks.

You're probably right and it is certainly premature for him or someone like him right now. But there must come a point when a major party like Labour gets bored of losing and willing to compromise with the electorate for success. They did it with Blair and they still bear the scars of that experience but who wants to be in pointless opposition forever?

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

First! Are we really going to have a third leadership election in as many years?

Why not? The money raised from the £25 voters would be very useful to the party. Indeed, there's an argument for having a contested election every twelve months anyway on that basis.

Of course, it would look rather stupid, self-indulgent and childish but they already look stupid, self-indulgent and childish now. At least this way they would be rich as well.

O/T. Are the Inspectors still with you, Dr? That you are posting suggests that either they’ve gone, or it’s going well!
Hope hat it’s both!

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

Excellent analysis - I've taken your advice and greened up by laying an earlier position on Lewis.

Does anyone know whether the deputy speakers count for the purposes of 15% of Labour MPs?
If my maths is right it's the difference between needing 34 or 35 MPs...

Presumably the left will get a candidate on the ballot... Otherwise there will be an almighty row.

I wouldn't bet on that. Sensible Labour MPs ought to prefer a row and the stomping off of Corbynite members to another unelectable and quite possibly untried leader. There is of course the risk of revenge deselections but that takes organisation and the recently joined Corbynite members don't seem to do organisation very well. Labour MPs ought to have learned their lesson from last time.

That said, the 'wide-debate' culture runs deep in Labour leadership elections and I could still see votes being lent if the left-winger was perceived as acceptable enough to the mainstream, whether that perception was justified or not.

Reselections seem to be a myth. When we look at the selections for all byelections under Corbyn, all the constituency parties have been free to pick local candidates, usually councillors, and often with a track record of opposing Corbyn, without interference. MPs with support of their CLPs have little or nothing to fear.

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

First! Are we really going to have a third leadership election in as many years?

Why not? The money raised from the £25 voters would be very useful to the party. Indeed, there's an argument for having a contested election every twelve months anyway on that basis.

Of course, it would look rather stupid, self-indulgent and childish but they already look stupid, self-indulgent and childish now. At least this way they would be rich as well.

I recall that Corbyn in his first campaign wanted annual reselections of leader. Now he has it!

Well technically that happens anyway I believe. It's just that usually the leader is re-elected unopposed.

The Tories had something similar from 1965 to 1998 - so Thatcher technically fought 16 leadership elections, not three. But the threshold for challengers was so steep that even in the dog days of the Major government, they didn't bother to stand (except for that time in 1995 when he resigned to call their bluff and Redwood stood).

I believe that there is (or was) *provision* for an annual Labour leadership election every year, in that anyone could gather nominations before a set date, and if such a nomination from a challenger was received then that would kick off the process. I don't know whether that annual timetable still exists or whether the process is ad hoc now, rather like a Tory VoNC in the leader, and is triggered simply on the submission of a valid nomination.

You're right of course that the Tories from 1975 to 1995 actually did have annual elections but that most of the time the incumbent leader was elected unopposed.

I don't think that Heath faced annual elections: IIRC, it was a provision introduced in the Douglas-Home reforms to the rules in 1975 (and then used immediately), hence the rather unfair description given to the amendments as 'Alec's Revenge'. In reality, Douglas-Home had no reason to be vengeful: he stood down entirely of his own accord and Heath would certainly not have become leader had he been instrumental in any plot to oust his predecessor.

Burgon. Well why not...

Innocent_Abroad said:

Charles said:

(disclosure, I backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at odds of up to 350/1 last October).

Is that disclosure, or boasting, or winding up @TheScreamingEagles ?

All of them. You knew that, Charles...

Never ask a question to which you don't know the answer

#LearningfromDavidCameronsmistakes

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

Excellent analysis - I've taken your advice and greened up by laying an earlier position on Lewis.

Does anyone know whether the deputy speakers count for the purposes of 15% of Labour MPs?
If my maths is right it's the difference between needing 34 or 35 MPs...

Presumably the left will get a candidate on the ballot... Otherwise there will be an almighty row.

I wouldn't bet on that. Sensible Labour MPs ought to prefer a row and the stomping off of Corbynite members to another unelectable and quite possibly untried leader. There is of course the risk of revenge deselections but that takes organisation and the recently joined Corbynite members don't seem to do organisation very well. Labour MPs ought to have learned their lesson from last time.

That said, the 'wide-debate' culture runs deep in Labour leadership elections and I could still see votes being lent if the left-winger was perceived as acceptable enough to the mainstream, whether that perception was justified or not.

Hmm... Corbyn was clearly way out of the labour mainstream and needed a lot of loaned votes. I could imagine that attenpts to get McDonnell on the ballot would be doomed.

But is it clear for instance that Clive Lewis is unelectable?

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

First! Are we really going to have a third leadership election in as many years?

Why not? The money raised from the £25 voters would be very useful to the party. Indeed, there's an argument for having a contested election every twelve months anyway on that basis.

Of course, it would look rather stupid, self-indulgent and childish but they already look stupid, self-indulgent and childish now. At least this way they would be rich as well.

O/T. Are the Inspectors still with you, Dr? That you are posting suggests that either they’ve gone, or it’s going well!
Hope hat it’s both!

Thanks for asking. They have gone, which is a relief. I don't have the official feedback yet (obviously) but the Head seemed pretty happy last night when he spoke to me. Apparently three subjects were specifically mentioned for the excellent quality of different aspects of their teaching - one was History. If that comes through in the final report I shall be a very happy bunny!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Burgon. Well why not...

If only someone had tipped him at 100/1 last summer.

foxinsoxuk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

Excellent analysis - I've taken your advice and greened up by laying an earlier position on Lewis.

Does anyone know whether the deputy speakers count for the purposes of 15% of Labour MPs?
If my maths is right it's the difference between needing 34 or 35 MPs...

Presumably the left will get a candidate on the ballot... Otherwise there will be an almighty row.

I wouldn't bet on that. Sensible Labour MPs ought to prefer a row and the stomping off of Corbynite members to another unelectable and quite possibly untried leader. There is of course the risk of revenge deselections but that takes organisation and the recently joined Corbynite members don't seem to do organisation very well. Labour MPs ought to have learned their lesson from last time.

That said, the 'wide-debate' culture runs deep in Labour leadership elections and I could still see votes being lent if the left-winger was perceived as acceptable enough to the mainstream, whether that perception was justified or not.

Reselections seem to be a myth. When we look at the selections for all byelections under Corbyn, all the constituency parties have been free to pick local candidates, usually councillors, and often with a track record of opposing Corbyn, without interference. MPs with support of their CLPs have little or nothing to fear.

Indeed there was a lot of talk about them a year ago or so... Ssend to have just been talk unless others know better?

I agree with Mr. Meeks that membership won't default to the left wing candidate... They will be looking to be inspired and given hope that they can win without sacrificing principles.

Interesting also whether Corbyn will nominate or even lobby for a favoured replacement or whether he will try to stay out of it?

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/829961986519728128

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

Labour need to find its Michael Howard figure. Someone who can...

Bring talents back into play
Organise and unite
Aggressively opppse the govt.
Be a credible PM candidate
Create a space for the next generation to develop.

So possibly...

Balls
Benn
Cooper

It's a problem that the first and best of these is not in Parliament and not so far showing any strong desire to return. Labour badly need him.

Gordon Brown?

ok made a right mess of that.

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

6% of its leadership? Sounds like a double edged sword. If the leadership is not that large you can reach the percentage with only a few appointments, but on the other hand if you need to make efficiencies and cut the level of management and some are LGBT, your percentage could drop massively from only a few changes.

Jonathan said:

Has Brexit saved the NHS?

Depends if it needs nurses or not...

Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.

Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/number-eu-nurses-coming-uk-falls-90-per-cent-since-brexit-vote/

Jonathan said:

Labour need to find its Michael Howard figure. Someone who can...

Bring talents back into play
Organise and unite
Aggressively opppse the govt.
Be a credible PM candidate
Create a space for the next generation to develop.

So possibly...

Balls
Benn
Cooper

Michael Howard only became possible because the Tory party, after 15 years of infighting, two landslide defeats and the prospect of a third on the cards (ignore the polls at the time: when faced with the reality of a Blair-IDS election, even post-Iraq, the anti-Labour Tory support would have melted like Miliband's against Cameron), the Tory Party in parliament and in the country was in a mood to get serious and unite. I'm not seeing any evidence of a similar process within Labour at the moment. It's possible that the corner has been turned and that some are marching back from the emotions to pragmatism but that process is very far from sufficiently complete for any candidate to 'do a Howard'. Several candidates, however, could do a damn sight better than Corbyn.

AlsoIndigo said:

Jonathan said:

So possibly...

Balls
Benn
Cooper

They badly need Balls back in parliament. Not because he will win them the next election, but because he will get a grip on the current shambles... put a bit of stick about, make'em jump... so to speak. Also someone who is known to be tough, a shrewd operator with good union links. The others are able as well, but it is difficult seeing them giving the troublemakers the hairdryer treatment, which is what seems to be badly in need at the moment.

Labour have moved from a paranoid, ultra-controlling Brown to a don't-give-a-f Corbyn. In between they passed through a rather wet Miliband.

Immediately after GE2015, I never thought I'd be looking back at Miliband's time as Labour leader as a glorious example of leadership. But it was, at least when compared to Corbyn.

Bring Back Miliband!

kle4 said:

Genius, he's not the leader they need, but he's creating the necessary conditions for transformation and rebirth.

Doesn't "transformation and rebirth" imply reincarnation, which means death?

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Has Brexit saved the NHS?

Depends if it needs nurses or not...

Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.

Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/number-eu-nurses-coming-uk-falls-90-per-cent-since-brexit-vote/

Sir Francis of Mid Staffs has also done an interesting interview in the Health Service Journal, with excerpts readable here via an HSJ correspondant.

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/829815031374159872

Of course a significant improvement in pay and conditions may help retention of British trained Nurses and Doctors. Brexiterrs should love that immigrants will no longer be undercutting the conditions of British workers!

CarlottaVance said:

An independent Scotland would start life outside the EU and be forced to join the queue for membership, the European Commission’s official representative in the UK has said in a major blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit strategy.

Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.

With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/

It surely would be easier for Scotland to progress in the process than others though? Turkey has been on the list the longest but it sure as hell won't be the next to join. So how long realistically might it take?

The currency issue sounds more difficult, politically, but I'll guess they'll cross that bridge when the come to it - if they win, it will be both more people positively convinced by the snp pitch, and more people willing to risk negatives.

Scott_P said:

kle4 said:

Genius, he's not the leader they need, but he's creating the necessary conditions for transformation and rebirth.

Doesn't "transformation and rebirth" imply reincarnation, which means death?

Details, details. Glorious poppies flourish amidst carnage, and Jeremy is preparing that carnage very well for his successor and should be thanked,

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

Looks hideously white to me.

Well, they didn't mention their BAME targets. Though people can be white and minority ethnic. White(other)after all.though admittedly it's not what would first spring to mind.

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

They are going to have to cut a lot of staff to get it down to 6%.

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/829892081241972736

Isn't the whole thing a bit moot? (Without a rules change and a new membership)

david_herdson said:

Essexit said:

Worrying. A lot of my bets have been based on an assumption that Corbyn would fight the 2020 election: Labour vote share 20-25%, Balls next leader...

That's an extremely dangerous assumption.

Remember the 2005-10 parliament and all the plots against Brown (which admittedly never succeeded, but then Brown knew how the power of party and parliamentary politics worked). We haven't even reached the equivalent point in the parliament yet where Brown became PM, never mind started being challenged.

Now you tell me! To be fair, Corbyn has ignored an overwhelming VoNC and successfully fought off a formal leadership challenge, which suggested he'd be there for the duration.

kle4 said:

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

Looks hideously white to me.

Well, they didn't mention their BAME targets. Though people can be white and minority ethnic. White(other)after all.though admittedly it's not what would first spring to mind.

Perhaps there's an explanatory footnote on p.2

HYUFD said:

Corbyn made clear this week he is not going anywhere and is staying so this is all hypothetical for now. However I would also not rule out John McDonnell if he did step down, Labour would need a hwavy hitter not a novice to have a chance of landing any blows on an incumbent PM in a strong position mid Parliament and McDonnell would at least be less of a risk with the Corbynista membership. He is also Shadow Chancellor which is exactly the position Michael Howard was in when he succeeded IDS midway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament

They don't call him McMao for nothing though! He's a deeply, deeply tainted commie with terrorist buddies. I'm all in favour! :-)

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

Commies, pinkos and traitors.

kle4 said:

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I see that the Tories are virtue signalling again :-)

https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096

Looks hideously white to me.

Well, they didn't mention their BAME targets. Though people can be white and minority ethnic. White(other)after all.though admittedly it's not what would first spring to mind.

Apparently they are really struggling to reach the required quota for transgender Islamic fundamentalists.

HYUFD said:

Corbyn made clear this week he is not going anywhere and is staying so this is all hypothetical for now. However I would also not rule out John McDonnell if he did step down, Labour would need a hwavy hitter not a novice to have a chance of landing any blows on an incumbent PM in a strong position mid Parliament and McDonnell would at least be less of a risk with the Corbynista membership. He is also Shadow Chancellor which is exactly the position Michael Howard was in when he succeeded IDS midway through the 2001 to 2005 Parliament

Surely nobody with John McDonnell's history of praising the IRA and dictators could ever become Labour leader?

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Has Brexit saved the NHS?

Depends if it needs nurses or not...

Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.

Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/number-eu-nurses-coming-uk-falls-90-per-cent-since-brexit-vote/

It would help if the government restored the bursary for training of domestic nurses that Osborne scrapped

Agreed.

Jonathan said:

Labour need to find its Michael Howard figure. Someone who can...

Bring talents back into play
Organise and unite
Aggressively opppse the govt.
Be a credible PM candidate
Create a space for the next generation to develop.

So possibly...

Balls
Benn
Cooper

Or McDonnell

DavidL said:

Is there an argument that it might just be worth the centre right of the party waiting this out a bit longer? Firstly, the current shambles is discrediting not only Corbyn but the left more generally. Secondly, the continued musical chairs in the shadow cabinet is making it impossible for those who might have come to prominence that way to have any impact. And thirdly, and probably most importantly, there is evidence that the new members Corbyn brought in to enhance his win are drifting away and fighting each other.

As Alastair points out it is not enough for the centre to get nominated, they need to coalesce behind candidates that can appeal to the membership. If that membership is once again evolving into something slightly different then time would help.

Take someone like Chukka Umunna. He would have no problem being nominated but would have little appeal to the current membership. Only when they are convinced that a new start is needed after an almighty shambles and some of Corbyn's supporters have drifted away will he be a real prospect. We are not there yet, bad though things are.

Until Corbyn or a Corbynista loses a general election there is little point someone like Chuka even bothering to stand

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

An independent Scotland would start life outside the EU and be forced to join the queue for membership, the European Commission’s official representative in the UK has said in a major blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit strategy.

Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.

With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/

It surely would be easier for Scotland to progress in the process than others though? Turkey has been on the list the longest but it sure as hell won't be the next to join. So how long realistically might it take?

The currency issue sounds more difficult, politically, but I'll guess they'll cross that bridge when the come to it - if they win, it will be both more people positively convinced by the snp pitch, and more people willing to risk negatives.

Yes, Scotland would already be compliant with EU regs, and I'm sure a fudge around the Euro could be found - but issues like currency (need a central bank that isn't the BoE) and deficit - no more Barnett, AND would be a net contributor to the EU might be more difficult. My ex-local paper had an interesting commentary on how the May government's response might be different to the Cameron's

Should the FM tell the forthcoming SNP conference she’s determined to have the vote in 2018, the UK Government can sound intrigued rather than hostile. They will say – ‘OK, let’s sit down and sort out a new agreement on what Indyref2 will look like.’

That is wholly different to letting Nicola re-run 2014. The Tories will be looking to get the SNP involved in a discussion which may not go to Nationalist liking.

The referendum question will be debated – the Scottish Government likes the last one “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Theresa May could change this to – “Should Scotland leave the UK and set up a new currency?” – which is much less appealing.

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/365652/exclusive-uk-government-preparing-nicola-sturgeon-demand-indyref2-august-2018-articleisfree/

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Has Brexit saved the NHS?

Depends if it needs nurses or not...

Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.

Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/number-eu-nurses-coming-uk-falls-90-per-cent-since-brexit-vote/

It would help if the government restored the bursary for training of domestic nurses that Osborne scrapped

Agreed.

Yes post Brexit if we are going to have fewer EU nurses we need to have more domestic ones and that goes for other areas of the public sector and indeed the private sector too

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

An independent Scotland would start life outside the EU and be forced to join the queue for membership, the European Commission’s official representative in the UK has said in a major blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit strategy.

Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.

With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/

It surely would be easier for Scotland to progress in the process than others though? Turkey has been on the list thecross that bridge when the come to it - if they win, it will be both more people positively convinced by the snp pitch, and more people willing to risk negatives.

Yes, Scotland would already be compliant with EU regs, and I'm sure a fudge around the Euro could be found - but issues like currency (need a central bank that isn't the BoE) and deficit - no more Barnett, AND would be a net contributor to the EU might be more difficult. My ex-local paper had an interesting commentary on how the May government's response might be different to the Cameron's

Should the FM tell the forthcoming SNP conference she’s determined to have the vote in 2018, the UK Government can sound intrigued rather than hostile. They will say – ‘OK, let’s sit down and sort out a new agreement on what Indyref2 will look like.’

That is wholly different to letting Nicola re-run 2014. The Tories will be looking to get the SNP involved in a discussion which may not go to Nationalist liking.

The referendum question will be debated – the Scottish Government likes the last one “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Theresa May could change this to – “Should Scotland leave the UK and set up a new currency?” – which is much less appealing.

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/365652/exclusive-uk-government-preparing-nicola-sturgeon-demand-indyref2-august-2018-articleisfree/

It is, but make the question different and losing it, if it were lost, might not kill the issue for a generation if it is relatively close. They would claim the question was unfair in how it presented the options.