So, using the pound could happen, but without a lender of last resort.
Precisely. But that puts Scotland on a par with Panama and the USD. Panama has amazingly strong banks and a severely strict banking code - exactly because it has no lender of last resort. If a Panamanian bank gets in trouble their depositors are going to lose everything. Panama is also a tax haven. I think Scotland can chosee the Pound or it can choose socialism. But not both.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
It's more of a theoretical must join, as there are no mechanisms to compel a country to join once they are EU members.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
So they'd be 'independent' but their interest rates would be set in London to suit rUK needs!
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
I am not sure CTA is mentioned in the treaties as such its usually discussed as being opt outs for the UK and Ireland.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
So they'd be 'independent' but their interest rates would be set in London to suit rUK needs!
Lot's of small countries have prospered with currency pegs and de facto lack of control of the currency.
Mr. 1000, I've written an article about coins and money in history, and part of it touches on (earlier) financial matters of a comparable nature. Devaluation, inflation etc. It's pretty interesting [although, as usual, I do ramble a bit].
I had been about to post it today, but with Journeys out in five days I'm doing a small series of interviews with some of the other contributors.
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
I am not sure CTA is mentioned in the treaties as such its usually discussed as being opt outs for the UK and Ireland.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
The Scottish accession treaty could write them into the opt out if it was the mutually preferred option.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
Would they still get to produce their own funny money banknotes?
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
I am not sure CTA is mentioned in the treaties as such its usually discussed as being opt outs for the UK and Ireland.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
The Scottish accession treaty could write them into the opt out if it was the mutually preferred option.
Absolutely, but the original claim was no treaties would need to be amended.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
So they'd be 'independent' but their interest rates would be set in London to suit rUK needs!
Lot's of small countries have prospered with currency pegs and de facto lack of control of the currency.
Interest rates are all much of a muchness around zero anyway.
BoE interest rate Great Britain 0.250 % ECB interest rate Europe 0.000 % American interest rate (Fed) 0.75 % BOJ -0.1% Switzerland -.75%
I would have no problem with the Scots going, and one way or the other they would make it work I am sure. The financial pain, should there be any, will be compensated for by the fact of independence.
I just hope my backing hasn't made TUD a loyalist
Since you're opinion matters less than a sparrow fart in this issue, no.
Haha I only said it so you'd say that!!! Cheers!
(and it's "your")
Thanks for the correction.
I'm glad that you're now gradually getting the distinction between a campaign that rejects racism & xenophobia to win, and one that's content to use those (and any other) elements.
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Why would Tory hard Brexit voters be any different from Tory soft Brexit voters? In grown up politics land there is nowhere else to go, not UKIP on the one hand, nor the LDs on the other.
I would have no problem with the Scots going, and one way or the other they would make it work I am sure. The financial pain, should there be any, will be compensated for by the fact of independence.
Is the rational way to view it as a Leaver.
Yes, if you are a nationalist I think that trumps money. In my own life I would rather be self employed and free than in someone else's pay with them telling when I can go on holiday etc
...even if the money was better if I were employed, being the point obviously!
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
I agree. I was just being circumspect to avoid the usual morons making fatuous comments about 100 UKIP MPs.
Isn't radical reform of the French labour laws exactly what Fillon wants?
Good luck with that...hollande tried to get through the most minor labour reforms and it was all out war.
And Sarkozy before. No the city of London will not decamp en masse to Paris because of the French culture of big government, this culture is the same in most other European capitals.
Watching that bbc2 last night it was clear in places like France and Italy the solutions that you can choose from is bigger ever closer EU protectism or outsider 5* / FN pitch of bigger national protectionist government. neither of which is going to be attractive to ultra free market city trading firms.
The U.S. is also heading for protectionism, Switzerland is probably the most attractive prospect for financiers at the moment
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
I am not sure CTA is mentioned in the treaties as such its usually discussed as being opt outs for the UK and Ireland.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
The Scottish accession treaty could write them into the opt out if it was the mutually preferred option.
Absolutely, but the original claim was no treaties would need to be amended.
Well any accession treaty amends the existing ones to the extent that it increases the number of signatories so you get into the realm of semantics quite quickly.
Douglas Carswell and the Daily Express have latched onto the point I made a while back on here about the Unified Patent Court agreement and the jurisdiction of the ECJ:
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
So they'd be 'independent' but their interest rates would be set in London to suit rUK needs!
Lot's of small countries have prospered with currency pegs and de facto lack of control of the currency.
I'm not saying it's not an option. I am saying the SNP will need to be open about it. 'We'll keep the Pound' sounds like a currency union and would cause huge upset when Angus Average realises it's a Panama option instead that is being peddled.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
So they'd be 'independent' but their interest rates would be set in London to suit rUK needs!
Lot's of small countries have prospered with currency pegs and de facto lack of control of the currency.
Interest rates are all much of a muchness around zero anyway.
How did that apostrophe get into my post! Oh dear...
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Why would Tory hard Brexit voters be any different from Tory soft Brexit voters? In grown up politics land there is nowhere else to go, not UKIP on the one hand, nor the LDs on the other.
So you missed UKIP polling in the high teens before Cameron went for the referendum ? I am not saying voting for them make sense, but it certainly will happen if May tries to tiptoe away from strong immigration control. If she smashed the hopes of those people you can bet the kippers will be over 20%, that probably won't get them many seats, but it will knock the Tory majority for six.
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
I am not sure CTA is mentioned in the treaties as such its usually discussed as being opt outs for the UK and Ireland.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
Actually the Treaty of Amsterdam does explicitly mention the Common Travel Area but in connection with just the UK and Ireland explicitly too. Interestingly while the UK has an unconditional opt-out of Schengen, Ireland's opt-out is conditional on it continuing to maintain the Common Travel Area. If we were to opt to abolish the Common Travel Area as part of Brexit then oddly enough technically we would be compelling the Irish to join Schengen.
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Why would Tory hard Brexit voters be any different from Tory soft Brexit voters? In grown up politics land there is nowhere else to go, not UKIP on the one hand, nor the LDs on the other.
So you missed UKIP polling in the high teens before Cameron went for the referendum ? I am not saying voting for them make sense, but it certainly will happen if May tries to tiptoe away from strong immigration control. If she smashed the hopes of those people you can bet the kippers will be over 20%, that probably won't get them many seats, but it will knock the Tory majority for six.
Yebbut so what? With Labour collapsing they will still walk the next election. Protest all they want but what would a Kipper vote actually achieve? We will have Brexited, and it wouldn't be the ideal flavour for a lot of euroloons, but so what?
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland does not yet have the free movement controls May wants though it has now at leastimposed a requirement that local workers get preference
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000;....
Sure they could, or at least they could try.
However, given the financial challenges facing an independent Scotland, the markets would immediately see that shorting the Scottish Pound against Sterling would be a one-way bet.
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Why would Tory hard Brexit voters be any different from Tory soft Brexit voters? In grown up politics land there is nowhere else to go, not UKIP on the one hand, nor the LDs on the other.
So you missed UKIP polling in the high teens before Cameron went for the referendum ? I am not saying voting for them make sense, but it certainly will happen if May tries to tiptoe away from strong immigration control. If she smashed the hopes of those people you can bet the kippers will be over 20%, that probably won't get them many seats, but it will knock the Tory majority for six.
Yebbut so what? With Labour collapsing they will still walk the next election. Protest all they want but what would a Kipper vote actually achieve? We will have Brexited, and it wouldn't be the ideal flavour for a lot of euroloons, but so what?
UKIP could pick up say 10 to 15 seats in Kent, Essex, the north and Midlands in such a scenario giving them the possibility of the balance of power if the Tories lose their majority but are still the largest party
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
Surely the scots just have a Scottish pound, with a mysterious currency peg of 1.00000; until they apply to join the Euro. If accepted then they must adopt the euro.
Would they still get to produce their own funny money banknotes?
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
Why would Tory hard Brexit voters be any different from Tory soft Brexit voters? In grown up politics land there is nowhere else to go, not UKIP on the one hand, nor the LDs on the other.
There is when Labour won't win anyway and one of the main reasons you vote Tory is immigration control
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
The way for Corbyn to step down while guaranteeing his choice of candidate gets nominated is to step down AFTER his challenger is nominated. Since he remains on the ballot until after a challenger is nominated, he can run without a nomination if the PLP refuses to put his anointed successor on the ballot - but if his chosen one is nominated he can step down and leave it to the members to decide.
But I don't understand why we'd want to get rid of the Common Travel Area. It's been an enormous positive for all the members of the British Isles.
Based on all the practical challenges, as well as May's track record on immigration, I suspect that freedom of movement in general is not a red line for her but just a bargaining chip that she plans to make a very theatrical climb-down over in return for something on trade or legal jurisdiction that she really wants.
Just before she loses either her job or her majority, depending which happens the fastest.
Fear of migration for most of the Tory Kipper tendency was just a useful way to get people to vote against the EU, not something they personally care about.
At the very least there will be enough letters on Graham Brady's desk to subject her to a challenge which having given away FoM she will probably lose, because:
About half of the 52% care a lot about it though, and there will be a general election within a year of the final deal being done, if she ditches freedom of movement and is very lucky they will stay at home and she will lose her majority.
Every poll shows a majority of Tory voters back hard Brexit. If May failed to impose free movement controls she would lose far more voters to UKIP than she would to the LDs if she does go ahead and impose them and leave the single market
I agree. I was just being circumspect to avoid the usual morons making fatuous comments about 100 UKIP MPs.
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
The way for Corbyn to step down while guaranteeing his choice of candidate gets nominated is to step down AFTER his challenger is nominated. Since he remains on the ballot until after a challenger is nominated, he can run without a nomination if the PLP refuses to put his anointed successor on the ballot - but if his chosen one is nominated he can step down and leave it to the members to decide.
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
The way for Corbyn to step down while guaranteeing his choice of candidate gets nominated is to step down AFTER his challenger is nominated. Since he remains on the ballot until after a challenger is nominated, he can run without a nomination if the PLP refuses to put his anointed successor on the ballot - but if his chosen one is nominated he can step down and leave it to the members to decide.
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
As PT states Corbyn will not even consider standing down before the next general election until he knows an ally has the necessary nominations
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
As PT states Corbyn will not even consider standing down before the next general election until he knows an ally has the necessary nominations
The armchair Corbynista army may be split if Lewis continues onwards and McD and co decide they want someone else e.g. Rebecca whats her name.
To all those posters using Panama as a currency example for IndyScotland, it might be best to choose another country other than Panama given that it was Darien Scheme that played a huge part in Scotland seeking the Act of Union and sorting out the Scottish national debt.....
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
So SindyRef2 nailed on then?
Should Scotland leave the UK and set up its own currency?
For sure, after a suitable period using our existing currency that we have a share in. Nice transition period to allow our money to be repatriated.
You've got a fortnight. Time to change the cash machines over.
I simply do not grasp this mean-spirited attitude to Scots independence. If the Scots choose to be independent then we should wish them well as a friend and neighbour and suggest measures to make the transition work for both countries' benefit. Yet all I hear on here is this bile.
Could not agree more. Why would England want to make life as tough as possible for a country with which we have shared a history for hundreds of years and with which we have such close ties in every area imaginable? I would love the Union to stay together, but we have to face facts: England and Scotland are drifting apart - just as England drifted away from the EU. We asked for the EU to reform, it said no, so we voted to leave. There is maybe an opportunity for a constitutional convention here to grasp the nettle that the EU 27 would not grasp, but the chances of that happening are low. In which case, sad as it is, it is probably best for us to go our separate ways with as much good grace and goodwill as possible. Basically, every reason that Leavers gave for the UK to leave the EU apply to Scotland leaving the Union.
Absolutely. It would be more economically harmful, but the same principle applies. As long as we got to keep the Union Jack, I'm good . I don't see this idea that national cohesion is some kind of virility symbol. I wouldn't mind a United Ireland either - that's for the NI unionists to fight, I've no rooted objection to it.
Actually the Treaty of Amsterdam does explicitly mention the Common Travel Area but in connection with just the UK and Ireland explicitly too. Interestingly while the UK has an unconditional opt-out of Schengen, Ireland's opt-out is conditional on it continuing to maintain the Common Travel Area. If we were to opt to abolish the Common Travel Area as part of Brexit then oddly enough technically we would be compelling the Irish to join Schengen.
The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories ("the Common Travel Area"), while fully respecting the rights of persons referred to in Article 1, first paragraph, point (a) of this Protocol. Accordingly, as long as they maintain such arrangements, the provisions of Article 1 of this Protocol shall apply to Ireland under the same terms and conditions as for the United Kingdom. Nothing in Articles 26 and 77 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, in any other provision of that Treaty or of the Treaty on European Union or in any measure adopted under them, shall affect any such arrangements.
Painful though it is I want to see Corbyn stay for a couple more years so the left of the party is further discredited. The next leader will be moderate left - those Tory posters who believe that they have an "insight" into what the current membership will do and think McDonnell will be elected really haven't a clue - they are just rationalising what they hope will happen in the best interests of the Tories.
My gut instinct is that Labour won't be back in power till 2025. I think Brexit will impact on the UK negatively but even if, by some chance, it is an economic success I doubt the WWC will feel any real benefits any more than they benefitted from globalisation. They will be disillusioned by Brexit before too long and a skilful Labour leader should easily be able to channel that against the Tories, who have become THE Brexit party, and comfortably get the Labour vote back up to around the 40% mark.
McDonnell would be an option before the next general election a la Michael Howard
Not if he needs 15% of MPs to back him.
More than that backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote
I will bet you whatever sum of money you wish that John McDonnell would not get 15% of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate him for a leadership contest in the event of Jeremy Corbyn standing down.
As PT states Corbyn will not even consider standing down before the next general election until he knows an ally has the necessary nominations
The armchair Corbynista army may be split if Lewis continues onwards and McD and co decide they want someone else e.g. Rebecca whats her name.
Lewis backed Trident and has burnt his bridges with Corbyn and is no longer a Corbynista
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
So SindyRef2 nailed on then?
Should Scotland leave the UK and set up its own currency?
For sure, after a suitable period using our existing currency that we have a share in. Nice transition period to allow our money to be repatriated.
You've got a fortnight. Time to change the cash machines over.
I simply do not grasp this mean-spirited attitude to Scots independence. If the Scots choose to be independent then we should wish them well as a friend and neighbour and suggest measures to make the transition work for both countries' benefit. Yet all I hear on here is this bile.
Fully agree - but I suspect the empathy would evaporate the moment a newly independent Scotland refused to take on its share of the UK's debt.
Share the £ = share (servicing) the National Debt. Seems simple enough. Otherwise the indyScot theoretical deficit will be reduced by a third.
An independent Scotland would start life outside the EU and be forced to join the queue for membership, the European Commission’s official representative in the UK has said in a major blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit strategy.
Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.
With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.
Not what she said on Scottish TV last night, but then why woudo you expect the lying Torygraph to be printing the truth.
So The National has got it wrong too?
Jacqueline Minor, the head of representation for the European Commission in the UK, warned Scotland would have to join a list of candidate countries, including Turkey Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Scotland joining would be much quicker than the Balkans, because it already meets all the accession criteria and all existing regulations are in place. It would all go through much more swiftly.
Unless, for example, one or more of the member states had secessionists they wished to discourage.....anyone spring to mind?
Spain has always been careful to separate the constitutional route (Scotland) which it can accept from the unconstitutional route (Catalonia, Kosovo etc.).
An independent Scotland would start life outside the EU and be forced to join the queue for membership, the European Commission’s official representative in the UK has said in a major blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit strategy.
Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.
With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.
...she said, Scotland, unlike other countries, would already meet much of the criteria of membership
Front of the queue.
Seems if you ask two EU officials about Scotland, you get three opinions. I'd love to see a well-argued thread by a Nat about EXACTLY how they see things panning out once Article 50 is triggered. Showing their workings, not just vague, bombastic assertions. Any takers?
Perhaps you could regale us with Hard Brexit and Tory disaster plans then
You first...
Most of it will be a repeat of the Indy white paper - didn't you get as far as page 216?
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
No poll yet has Yes ahead but of course with the UK now leaving the single market if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU that means border controls at Berwick and customs duties on Scottish exports to the UK which is where a majority of Scottish exports go
Why does that mean Border controls at Berwick? There are no border controls between Switzerland and - for example - Germany, and Switzerland is not part of the Single Market.
Switzerland is in Schengen.
And Scotland would be in the Common Travel Area.
Given that would require EU treaty change I wouldn't bet on it.
No it doesn't. The reaties explicitly recognise the Common Travel Area
As others have mentioned, only in regards to how it affects EU law with respect to the UK and Ireland ONLY.
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
So SindyRef2 nailed on then?
Should Scotland leave the UK and set up its own currency?
For sure, after a suitable period using our existing currency that we have a share in. Nice transition period to allow our money to be repatriated.
You've got a fortnight. Time to change the cash machines over.
I simply do not grasp this mean-spirited attitude to Scots independence. If the Scots choose to be independent then we should wish them well as a friend and neighbour and suggest measures to make the transition work for both countries' benefit. Yet all I hear on here is this bile.
Fully agree - but I suspect the empathy would evaporate the moment a newly independent Scotland refused to take on its share of the UK's debt.
Share the £ = share (servicing) the National Debt. Seems simple enough. Otherwise the indyScot theoretical deficit will be reduced by a third.
If Scotland tried to somehow enforce a curency union on an unwilling England and at the same walk away from £100bn+ of debt I think we'd be seeing a diamond hard Scexit. That'd be a 'hostile act' and the rUK would respond accordingly.
Oh dear the news from German and independence support surging in Scotland - your world is starting to fall apart and all of your old certaintiesand prejudices with it.
Never mind have a drink put a bet of the Lib/Dems to win something.
So SindyRef2 nailed on then?
Should Scotland leave the UK and set up its own currency?
For sure, after a suitable period using our existing currency that we have a share in. Nice transition period to allow our money to be repatriated.
You've got a fortnight. Time to change the cash machines over.
I simply do not grasp this mean-spirited attitude to Scots independence. If the Scots choose to be independent then we should wish them well as a friend and neighbour and suggest measures to make the transition work for both countries' benefit. Yet all I hear on here is this bile.
Fully agree - but I suspect the empathy would evaporate the moment a newly independent Scotland refused to take on its share of the UK's debt.
Share the £ = share (servicing) the National Debt. Seems simple enough. Otherwise the indyScot theoretical deficit will be reduced by a third.
If Scotland tried to somehow enforce a curency union on an unwilling England and at the same walk away from £100bn+ of debt I think we'd be seeing a diamond hard Scexit. That'd be a 'hostile act' and the rUK would respond accordingly.
Comments
It's interesting that she's shifting to a form of European nationalism.
Great post.
The Treaty of Amsterdam established the Schengen Area, for example doesn't mention the CTA at all, but gives explicit opt outs for the UK and Ireland, that treaty does not mention the Republic of Scotland, so they will be in Schengen if they are in the EU.
I had been about to post it today, but with Journeys out in five days I'm doing a small series of interviews with some of the other contributors.
Mr. Pulpstar, indeed, although that would mean no lender of last resort, right?
Mr. Topping, hmm. I'm not sure I quite see how that works.
BoE interest rate Great Britain 0.250 %
ECB interest rate Europe 0.000 %
American interest rate (Fed) 0.75 %
BOJ -0.1%
Switzerland -.75%
I'm glad that you're now gradually getting the distinction between a campaign that rejects racism & xenophobia to win, and one that's content to use those (and any other) elements.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/765411/brexit-plan-european-treaty-britain-trade-deals-negotiations-douglas-carswell
More info on the UPC and UK ratification here:
http://www.iam-media.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=abd6bd67-38ed-4e9d-a8f2-ae23d262b028
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Amsterdam/Protocol_on_the_application_of_certain_aspects_of_Article_7a_of_the_Treaty_establishing_the_European_Community_to_the_United_Kingdom_and_to_Ireland
However, given the financial challenges facing an independent Scotland, the markets would immediately see that shorting the Scottish Pound against Sterling would be a one-way bet.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/830029282873315329
Though Parliament is in recess currently isn't it? So the numbers can't rise right now so that's absurd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:12012E/TXT
Protocol 20:
Article 2
The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories ("the Common Travel Area"), while fully respecting the rights of persons referred to in Article 1, first paragraph, point (a) of this Protocol. Accordingly, as long as they maintain such arrangements, the provisions of Article 1 of this Protocol shall apply to Ireland under the same terms and conditions as for the United Kingdom. Nothing in Articles 26 and 77 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, in any other provision of that Treaty or of the Treaty on European Union or in any measure adopted under them, shall affect any such arrangements.