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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The music stops. Who would grab the chair if Jeremy Corbyn ste
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The music stops. Who would grab the chair if Jeremy Corbyn steps down?
From the start of his leadership of the Labour party, many Labour MPs struggled to contain their doubts about him. Even before Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader, Mike Gapes was quoted as saying: “I’ll show him as much loyalty as he showed other leaders.” Within three months, nearly a third of his party including his own shadow Foreign Secretary were in mutiny against his preferred line on airstrikes on Syria. By the following March, his team had categorised MPs into gradations of loyalty. Only 19 were described as “core group”.
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Is that disclosure, or boasting, or winding up @TheScreamingEagles ?
Does anyone know whether the deputy speakers count for the purposes of 15% of Labour MPs?
If my maths is right it's the difference between needing 34 or 35 MPs...
Presumably the left will get a candidate on the ballot... Otherwise there will be an almighty row.
Of course, it would look rather stupid, self-indulgent and childish but they already look stupid, self-indulgent and childish now. At least this way they would be rich as well.
First-rate round up of where Labour now stands and how they got there Mr Meeks, I think it fair to say that the pool of potential successors is very shallow indeed and although speculation has shifted from one MP to another over the last few months to finally rest upon Ms Long-Bailey, IMO she stands very little chance and is simply not up to the task.
Len McCluskey is the bellwether to watch out for, his words carry far more weight than a disgruntled MP, leaking to the press.
I have been watching him for sometime as a local MP (parachuted into Leicester South following Peter Soulsbys election as mayor of Leicester). A Brownite politically, and well connected with unions and NEC. Support needs to be from more than the PLP. He is one of the few mainstream MPs to sit in Corbyns Shadow Cabinet, and has the Health portfolio, one close to Labours heart and the public sector unions. On Brexit he seems to be pragmatic, and followed the whip despite his own constituency voting Remain. He has that John Major like quality of rising without trace.
I backed him some time ago, but his rise continues, with active campaigning in the byelections as well as other recent appearances such as this:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/30/alcoholic-father-inspires-shadow-health-minister-jonathan-ashworth&ved=0ahUKEwjnns23-YTSAhVKJ8AKHRdGCqYQFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNGVSSGMmpxsZ7BoYIJeWvp3EDfFHw&sig2=ce8qxs426EKD0VAczv8SgQ
The Tories had something similar from 1965 to 1998 - so Thatcher technically fought 16 leadership elections, not three. But the threshold for challengers was so steep that even in the dog days of the Major government, they didn't bother to stand (except for that time in 1995 when he resigned to call their bluff and Redwood stood).
May is in considerable danger of being replaced. Conservative MP's are notorious in their support for holding the Executive to account. May's actions in trying to retain personal control of the Brexit timetable and negotiations without allowing MP's the right to question her, makes her look petty and as if she really has no idea of what she is doing. Though the Tory MP's are presently propping her up, that support could quickly vanish (along with the 30 odd MP's under investigation for electoral fraud and at least 3 others for potential damaging misdemeanours).
And then there is Sturgeon. There are a lot of her "suppoters" who are not very happy with her. Even her most faithful can see the flaws in her out UK, in EU arguments. If she doesn't pull the proverbial bunny out of the hat at the SNP conference in March, then Salmond will be making his weary way from Westminster to Holyrood to take up the reins of power, again.
As Alastair points out it is not enough for the centre to get nominated, they need to coalesce behind candidates that can appeal to the membership. If that membership is once again evolving into something slightly different then time would help.
Take someone like Chukka Umunna. He would have no problem being nominated but would have little appeal to the current membership. Only when they are convinced that a new start is needed after an almighty shambles and some of Corbyn's supporters have drifted away will he be a real prospect. We are not there yet, bad though things are.
Fire the head-hunter you've employed, and start the search afresh.
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Fairford North (Cotswold) result:
LDEM: 68.1% (+40.2)
CON: 30.1% (-20.9)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Waterside (North Norfolk) result:
LDEM: 55.1% (+19.8)
CON: 34.8% (-4.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (+6.5)
LAB: 3.5% (-8.5)
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Great & Little Oakley (Tendring) result:
UKIP: 36.8% (+14.1)
CON: 29.1% (+1.4)
LAB: 19.9% (+5.5)
LDEM: 14.1% (+14.1)
No Independent as prev.
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Kingswood & Hazel Leys (Corby) result:
LAB: 64.6% (+10.3)
CON: 26.7% (+12.5)
GRN: 8.7% (-1.1)
https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/829729605686804480
That said, the 'wide-debate' culture runs deep in Labour leadership elections and I could still see votes being lent if the left-winger was perceived as acceptable enough to the mainstream, whether that perception was justified or not.
Hope hat it’s both!
Bring talents back into play
Organise and unite
Aggressively opppse the govt.
Be a credible PM candidate
Create a space for the next generation to develop.
So possibly...
Balls
Benn
Cooper
You're right of course that the Tories from 1975 to 1995 actually did have annual elections but that most of the time the incumbent leader was elected unopposed.
I don't think that Heath faced annual elections: IIRC, it was a provision introduced in the Douglas-Home reforms to the rules in 1975 (and then used immediately), hence the rather unfair description given to the amendments as 'Alec's Revenge'. In reality, Douglas-Home had no reason to be vengeful: he stood down entirely of his own accord and Heath would certainly not have become leader had he been instrumental in any plot to oust his predecessor.
#LearningfromDavidCameronsmistakes
I really do not like Sadiq - esp his slippery character - but he's head and shoulders above many others.
But is it clear for instance that Clive Lewis is unelectable?
Remember that May received the biggest support of any candidate in an open, contested Tory leadership election from her MPs with more than 60% in the 'round of three', which compares with 46% for Cameron, 33% for IDS (which was just behind Clarke in that round), 38% for Hague (also behind Clarke, who won 39%), 50% for Major, 53% for Thatcher (in a round of five but which passed the threshold necessary for victory) and 50% for Heath.
Let's build on the 4% from last time.
I agree with Mr. Meeks that membership won't default to the left wing candidate... They will be looking to be inspired and given hope that they can win without sacrificing principles.
Interesting also whether Corbyn will nominate or even lobby for a favoured replacement or whether he will try to stay out of it?
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/829955584782852096
Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.
With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency, she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/
Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.
Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/number-eu-nurses-coming-uk-falls-90-per-cent-since-brexit-vote/
Brexit means NHS
Immediately after GE2015, I never thought I'd be looking back at Miliband's time as Labour leader as a glorious example of leadership. But it was, at least when compared to Corbyn.
Bring Back Miliband!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-10/south-african-mps-brawl-during-protest-of-president/8258722
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/829815031374159872
Of course a significant improvement in pay and conditions may help retention of British trained Nurses and Doctors. Brexiterrs should love that immigrants will no longer be undercutting the conditions of British workers!
Remember the 2005-10 parliament and all the plots against Brown (which admittedly never succeeded, but then Brown knew how the power of party and parliamentary politics worked). We haven't even reached the equivalent point in the parliament yet where Brown became PM, never mind started being challenged.
The currency issue sounds more difficult, politically, but I'll guess they'll cross that bridge when the come to it - if they win, it will be both more people positively convinced by the snp pitch, and more people willing to risk negatives.
It's far too easy for warm words to be given to the recommendations when the report is in the news, only for them to be forgotten about at the earliest convenience.
A problem for the PLP may be that now the general principle of triggering Article 50 has passed the Commons, attention will turn (after the Lords stop dicking about, assuming they do so) to particulars. This should present a much easier time for Labour in terms of criticism, and a more challenging time for May in terms of support.
Worth recalling Brown was down (well, Brown-led Labour) to 19% at one point. I wonder what Miliband's nadir was.
Ah, yes. As the terrorist in the film Sourcecode puts it, "We can rebuild from the rubble, but first there has to be rubble"
Corbyn is turning the Labour Party into rubble more effectively than any leader before him.
All hail!
I need more info, stupid twitter character limit.
And while I'm at it what is all this stuff about prepubescent schoolchildren being given gender reassignment? At that age I hadn't a clue about what I was really like in this respect or any other but I might have made the claim because I thought it was cool and or to annoy my parents. How can they give informed consent to any kind of medical intervention?
No, I wasn’t a teacher but my wife was, and two of my grandchildren are.
It's been said the party needed new MPs or new membership to square the circle of their leadership crisis almost 18 months in progress, and perhaps there are signs the membership is beginning to change. Let them continue to do so than rush to put up someone so bad corbyn fights on and his core rejuvenates.
Perhaps we should raise MPs' pay.
Also, it didn't get a single mention on the news (BBC) last night.
Good day all.
Should the FM tell the forthcoming SNP conference she’s determined to have the vote in 2018, the UK Government can sound intrigued rather than hostile. They will say – ‘OK, let’s sit down and sort out a new agreement on what Indyref2 will look like.’
That is wholly different to letting Nicola re-run 2014. The Tories will be looking to get the SNP involved in a discussion which may not go to Nationalist liking.
The referendum question will be debated – the Scottish Government likes the last one “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Theresa May could change this to – “Should Scotland leave the UK and set up a new currency?” – which is much less appealing.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/365652/exclusive-uk-government-preparing-nicola-sturgeon-demand-indyref2-august-2018-articleisfree/
And I'd be far more aggressive on chucking out expenses claims.