politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at Germany, Brexi

System · February 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at Germany, Brexit, an Opinium poll on the PMs of the last 30 years, and Clive Lewis

In part one, Keiran speaks to German political commentator and elections expect Nina Schick, who explains what we should look out for in German politics, the SPD surge and what the German government wants from Brexit.

Read the full story here

RobD · February 2017

Glorious first!

RobD · February 2017

Nice polling for May there!

Scott_P · February 2017

RobD said:
Glorious first!

Fake News. Sad.

RobD · February 2017

Scott_P said:

RobD said:
Glorious first!
Fake News. Sad.

Except it was true... oh dear!

rottenborough · February 2017

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

RobD said:
Glorious first!
Fake News. Sad.
Except it was true... oh dear!

Come on get with the programme. The whole point of crying 'Fake News' now is to undermine an actual truth or factually correct article. See Trump's tweets passim.

rottenborough · February 2017

from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.

Scott_P · February 2017

RobD said:
Except it was true... oh dear!

Just because it happened, and you reported it, doesn't make it true...

Apparently

Scott_P · February 2017

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Scott_P said:

RobD said:
Except it was true... oh dear!
Just because it happened, and you reported it, doesn't make it true...

Apparently

Are we talking about Trump or Corbyn? Its hard to keep up these days.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.

It's a fair way away. It's going to be hugely capital intensive. Existing farm machinery is in total £1m+ and we're talking doubling or tripling that.

rottenborough · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880

I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."

[Deleted User] · February 2017

In what strange universe are there 13% of people who think Gordon Brown did a good job? This tells us all we need to know about education standards collapsing during the Blair years.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."

I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

HYUFD · February 2017

So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?

Mike and I discussed this the other day, we're getting far fewer insults on twitter when we publish (sub-optimal) polling for Labour and Corbyn these days.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.

There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major

I think you could write a paper on the continued decline in Blair's popularity even after he had left office.

rottenborough · February 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?
Mike and I discussed this the other day, we're getting far fewer insults on twitter when we publish (sub-optimal) polling for Labour and Corbyn these days.

Still, the conspiracy theories seem to be boiling along nicely:

Liam Young ‏@liamyoung Feb 8

Those spreading false rumours about Jeremy Corbyn will destabilise and eventually destroy the Labour Party. Perhaps that's what they want?

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major

No, you're comparing apples and oranges as Keiran and Leo point out.

Blair's rating in November 1997 was an impressive net plus 50

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.

The longer the addiction goes on, the more the hike in food prices of coming off, because the alternative (to keep prices down) is capital investment.

At present assuming a sustained reduction of the workforce I think we can expect a 10% rise in the real terms of cost fresh food.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major
I think you could write a paper on the continued decline in Blair's popularity even after he had left office.

We have a thread that covers that which is published on Saturday afternoon.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
...
However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.
...

I think one needs to be a bit cautious here. It's perfectly possible, even likely, that the Polish staff feel like that at least partly because the media have run exaggerated stories telling them that the UK has become hostile to them.

HYUFD · February 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major
No, you're comparing apples and oranges as Keiran and Leo point out.

Blair's rating in November 1997 was an impressive net plus 50

You don't decide a football match after 5 minutes you look at the final score!

Beverley_C · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

At present assuming a sustained reduction of the workforce I think we can expect a 10% rise in the real terms of cost fresh food.

Fresh food is actually quite cheap. If you want to bankrupt your purse then fill the trolley with branded, prepared food items.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.
The longer the addiction goes on, the more the hike in food prices of coming off, because the alternative (to keep prices down) is capital investment.

At present assuming a sustained reduction of the workforce I think we can expect a 10% rise in the real terms of cost fresh food.

Given the current hysteria about lettuces and courgettes, we can expect some fruity front pages if you're right.

SouthamObserver · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

Essexit · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."

Exactly as Stuart Rose predicted!

The second point merits more serious attention, but I'd be interested to know if these workers had actually suffered abuse for speaking Polish, or were merely concerned that they would.

wasd · February 2017

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.

I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.

HYUFD · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major
I think you could write a paper on the continued decline in Blair's popularity even after he had left office.

Indeed Major has clearly had the last laugh, now viewed more favorourably overall then Blair, though Blair can content himself with his earnings since he left office

AlsoIndigo · February 2017

wasd said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.

There are also prototype robots around to do it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjd5DaxkLhQ

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.
The longer the addiction goes on, the more the hike in food prices of coming off, because the alternative (to keep prices down) is capital investment.

At present assuming a sustained reduction of the workforce I think we can expect a 10% rise in the real terms of cost fresh food.
Given the current hysteria about lettuces and courgettes, we can expect some fruity front pages if you're right.

The future of the seasonal workforce is not entirely clear, so we shall see. I am pricing in the fact that even a seasonal visa regime in the mould of SAWS will not be as attractive as the EU's freedom of movement.

BevC - people would agree, if only they had the time to stop and think. Cucumbers are fifty pence for heavens' sake.

TheWhiteRabbit · February 2017

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

People will pay the lowest price for what's available. UK farmers - starting with the biggest but now a large proportion of the middle market for some crops - have tapped into cheap migrant labour. It's a shot in the arm, it's not a long term solution.

Beverley_C · February 2017

wasd said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.

My brother-in-laws cows did not need to be taught. Come milking time they wandered back across the fields to the dairy shed and started mooing. When he let them in each cow went to her own stall.

OldKingCole · February 2017

wasd said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.

Where did you hear that?

DavidL · February 2017

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?

In April 2015 Ed Miliband was apparently more popular than Cameron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/ed-miliband-overtakes-david-cameron-approval-ratings-labour-pulls-ahead-polls

Not quite the way I remember it to be honest but the memory plays tricks.

It clearly was not that way by the election the following month but it shows that even a narrow lead is probably not enough for an opposition party. To be 46% behind must surely be unprecedented in modern times.

wasd · February 2017

OldKingCole said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.
Where did you hear that?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32610257

Cookie · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.

There are so many UK consumers addicted to being able to afford to live. We're not buying cheap food out of some desperate lower-middle-class lack of style, we're buying cheap food because the modern UK is so eye-wateringly expensive that it's the only way we can get by. We're spending less as a percentage of our income on food than our parents - and on transport - but far, far more on housing, and probably more on childcare costs.

But anyway - I agree - agricultural products are astonishingly cheap. I don't understand how I can get a bag or carrots for about 40p. When you think of the costs involved in logistics (i.e. from the farm to the vegetable depot in Lincolnshire, to the Tesco depot, from the Tesco depot to the store, employing the people to load/unload them at either end) and marketing them (putting them on the shelf, paying for Tesco to actually operate a store and run a company), how much does a carrot cost when it comes out of the ground - 1p? 2p? Surely no more than 5p? How on earth can it be economically possible to grow and pick such things? Even if the armies of Estonians were giving their labour free for the sheer joy of extracting vegetables from the loamy soils of Lincolnshire, I can't see how the model works.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856

Sandpit · February 2017

Corbyn backable at 5.3 to cease being Labour leader in Q3 2017, a period which includes their conference.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.120629015

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?
In April 2015 Ed Miliband was apparently more popular than Cameron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/ed-miliband-overtakes-david-cameron-approval-ratings-labour-pulls-ahead-polls

Not quite the way I remember it to be honest but the memory plays tricks.

It clearly was not that way by the election the following month but it shows that even a narrow lead is probably not enough for an opposition party. To be 46% behind must surely be unprecedented in modern times.

Peak Milifan, though that was a Survation poll.

At the time Ipsos Mori, the gold standard of leader ratings still had Dave ahead.

Hague had a much worse gap than 46% behind

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/88/Political-Monitor-Satisfaction-Ratings-1997Present.aspx

Scott_P · February 2017

Cookie said:
But anyway - I agree - agricultural products are astonishingly cheap. I don't understand how I can get a bag or carrots for about 40p. When you think of the costs involved in logistics (i.e. from the farm to the vegetable depot in Lincolnshire, to the Tesco depot, from the Tesco depot to the store, employing the people to load/unload them at either end) and marketing them (putting them on the shelf, paying for Tesco to actually operate a store and run a company), how much does a carrot cost when it comes out of the ground - 1p? 2p? Surely no more than 5p? How on earth can it be economically possible to grow and pick such things? Even if the armies of Estonians were giving their labour free for the sheer joy of extracting vegetables from the loamy soils of Lincolnshire, I can't see how the model works.

And those are washed and packed. Farm shops sell unwashed veggies cheaper than that

DavidL · February 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?
In April 2015 Ed Miliband was apparently more popular than Cameron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/ed-miliband-overtakes-david-cameron-approval-ratings-labour-pulls-ahead-polls

Not quite the way I remember it to be honest but the memory plays tricks.

It clearly was not that way by the election the following month but it shows that even a narrow lead is probably not enough for an opposition party. To be 46% behind must surely be unprecedented in modern times.
Peak Milifan, though that was a Survation poll.

At the time Ipsos Mori, the gold standard of leader ratings still had Dave ahead.

Hague had a much worse gap than 46% behind

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/88/Political-Monitor-Satisfaction-Ratings-1997Present.aspx

Just. 46%? I think that means very large number of traditional Labour voters just not voting at all and pretty much every swing voter doing what they can to keep Labour out where that is applicable. In short a massacre.

Scott_P · February 2017

@BBCJonSopel: Extraordinary. Sen Blumenthal says Judge #Gorsuch explicitly wanted his concerns about @realDonaldTrump attacks on judiciary made public

Is there a market on Gorsuch being confirmed, then overturning Trump's ban (and maybe some other stuff) ?

Sandpit · February 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856

Twitter is screwed, they still can't work out how to make money. Should have taken the big offers a couple of years ago, they're not coming back.

Beverley_C · February 2017

Cookie said:
Even if the armies of Estonians were giving their labour free for the sheer joy of extracting vegetables from the loamy soils of Lincolnshire, I can't see how the model works.

Back when I worked for a well known supermarket's IT section, the rule of thumb was the 40% rule. If the customer paid 40p then the supermarket expected to pay no more than 40% (16p) when they acquired it. The trick to low prices was to flatten the supply chain and have as few middlemen as possible.

If the rule applied one more level then the farmer would get about 6p...

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

Paging @Pulpstar

Is that 5/1 still available?

Scott_P · February 2017

Sandpit said:
Twitter is screwed, they still can't work out how to make money. Should have taken the big offers a couple of years ago, they're not coming back.

If they bring down the Trump presidency (FPT) there may be a market

BannedInParis · February 2017

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?
In April 2015 Ed Miliband was apparently more popular than Cameron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/ed-miliband-overtakes-david-cameron-approval-ratings-labour-pulls-ahead-polls

Not quite the way I remember it to be honest but the memory plays tricks.

It clearly was not that way by the election the following month but it shows that even a narrow lead is probably not enough for an opposition party. To be 46% behind must surely be unprecedented in modern times.

IIRC, there was one or two polls that had him ahead of where Cameron was as leader of opposition and Baldwin, the spin doctor, wrote an angry letter to someone about it.

Sandpit · February 2017

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to being able to afford to live. We're not buying cheap food out of some desperate lower-middle-class lack of style, we're buying cheap food because the modern UK is so eye-wateringly expensive that it's the only way we can get by. We're spending less as a percentage of our income on food than our parents - and on transport - but far, far more on housing, and probably more on childcare costs.

But anyway - I agree - agricultural products are astonishingly cheap. I don't understand how I can get a bag or carrots for about 40p. When you think of the costs involved in logistics (i.e. from the farm to the vegetable depot in Lincolnshire, to the Tesco depot, from the Tesco depot to the store, employing the people to load/unload them at either end) and marketing them (putting them on the shelf, paying for Tesco to actually operate a store and run a company), how much does a carrot cost when it comes out of the ground - 1p? 2p? Surely no more than 5p? How on earth can it be economically possible to grow and pick such things? Even if the armies of Estonians were giving their labour free for the sheer joy of extracting vegetables from the loamy soils of Lincolnshire, I can't see how the model works.

Wait until we leave the EU and CAP, and can import food from Africa without punitive tariffs.

Philip_Thompson · February 2017

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

First law of economics is that supply equals demand.

The consumers are only able to demand what suppliers are able to supply. If suppliers stop supplying cheap food, consumers will stop being able to demand it. To expect consumers to unilaterally demand expensive food defies all economics (unless its for something specific like consumers buying free range eggs).

weejonnie · February 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856

And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

Ishmael_Z · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.

That's not how addiction works; people are addicted to food, and if the price goes up you pay the difference, or start stealing it or grow your own, or starve.

This foreign worker thing is going to get levelled out anyway, as the lovely lovely EU raises the standard of living in Poland by giving them humongous grants to build car factories and coming over here becomes less enticing (and as the £:€ rate moves against us). At the moment we are rather unkindly arbitraging living standards to get cheap cabbages, just as we do to get cheap iphones.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
Twitter is screwed, they still can't work out how to make money. Should have taken the big offers a couple of years ago, they're not coming back.

Am glad I don't have any stock in them (other than I am sure pension fund probably does).

Cookie · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

Cookie said:
Even if the armies of Estonians were giving their labour free for the sheer joy of extracting vegetables from the loamy soils of Lincolnshire, I can't see how the model works.
Back when I worked for a well known supermarket's IT section, the rule of thumb was the 40% rule. If the customer paid 40p then the supermarket expected to pay no more than 40% (16p) when they acquired it. The trick to low prices was to flatten the supply chain and have as few middlemen as possible.

If the rule applied one more level then the farmer would get about 6p...

Fascinating - so 1p per carrot, once out of the ground, doesn't look too far from the mark.

Sandpit · February 2017

Scott_P said:
@BBCJonSopel: Extraordinary. Sen Blumenthal says Judge #Gorsuch explicitly wanted his concerns about @realDonaldTrump attacks on judiciary made public

Is there a market on Gorsuch being confirmed, then overturning Trump's ban (and maybe some other stuff) ?

Judges have always complained about politicians, and vice Versace.

The GOP in the Senate are more than happy with Gorsuch as an SC nominee, is it actually possible for his nomination to be rescinded at this stage?

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Kids are great....

School sends parents an awkwardly hilarious letter of complaint home after their ten-year-old son invents an imaginary friend called ‘Wildo the Dildo’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4207314/School-sends-parents-letter-Wildo-Dildo.html

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/829678423102586880
I don't bother looking at many momentum-type twitter feeds. Are they still all saying the polls are being published by right-wing PR companies?
In April 2015 Ed Miliband was apparently more popular than Cameron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/ed-miliband-overtakes-david-cameron-approval-ratings-labour-pulls-ahead-polls

Not quite the way I remember it to be honest but the memory plays tricks.

It clearly was not that way by the election the following month but it shows that even a narrow lead is probably not enough for an opposition party. To be 46% behind must surely be unprecedented in modern times.
Peak Milifan, though that was a Survation poll.

At the time Ipsos Mori, the gold standard of leader ratings still had Dave ahead.

Hague had a much worse gap than 46% behind

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/88/Political-Monitor-Satisfaction-Ratings-1997Present.aspx
Just. 46%? I think that means very large number of traditional Labour voters just not voting at all and pretty much every swing voter doing what they can to keep Labour out where that is applicable. In short a massacre.

I'm in the process of writing two threads as we speak, for the weekend.

1) One says why Labour are being understated in the polls

and

2) How Corbyn becomes PM, and it is so obvious

Ok the second piece might be called pure clickbait, but I'm not writing either piece as a Tory4Corbyn

logical_song · February 2017

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

Is it only the liberals? Really?

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:
@BBCJonSopel: Extraordinary. Sen Blumenthal says Judge #Gorsuch explicitly wanted his concerns about @realDonaldTrump attacks on judiciary made public

Is there a market on Gorsuch being confirmed, then overturning Trump's ban (and maybe some other stuff) ?
Judges have always complained about politicians, and vice Versace.

The GOP in the Senate are more than happy with Gorsuch as an SC nominee, is it actually possible for his nomination to be rescinded at this stage?

Vice Versace is an awesome typo

Richard_Nabavi · February 2017

Clive Lewis has published his resignation letter, complete with the authentic spelling mistakes you'd expect from someone tipped as a future Labour leader:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/09/corbyn-dismisses-claims-he-has-set-date-for-resigning-as-fake-news-politics-live

13:41

Philip_Thompson · February 2017

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

Maybe that's a deliberate way of cutting costs and cutting its losses by 25%

If they could alienate 100% of its users they could eliminate its losses altogether.

Plank · February 2017

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

First law of economics is that supply equals demand.

In agriculture subsidiary plays a role.

Carolus_Rex · February 2017

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So Thatcher has the most positive rating overall but on a net basis May is first, then Thatcher then Major
No, you're comparing apples and oranges as Keiran and Leo point out.

Blair's rating in November 1997 was an impressive net plus 50
You don't decide a football match after 5 minutes you look at the final score!

Maybe someone should have told the Nobel Peace Prize committee that back in 2008.

Philip_Thompson · February 2017

Plank said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

First law of economics is that supply equals demand.

In agriculture subsidiary plays a role.

Do you mean subsidiary or subsidy?

Either way every step of the way must essentially have supply equaling demand. If suppliers were no longer capable of supplying (either because their subsidiaries couldn't anymore or after taking into account subsidies) then consumers would be unable to demand it from them.

Alistair · February 2017

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

This has nothing to do with Twitter allowing or not allowing Nazis to use its platform. This is to do with their spectacular failure to monetize the platform and their obsesstion with user metrics over cash.

Plank · February 2017

wasd said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
I believe that dairy cows have been taught to heard themselves in and out of automated milking sheds.

The local agriculture college installed a automatic milking machine, subsidised by the maker, as a demo to other farmers/students. After a few weeks two thirds of the herd were culled (dog food) as untrainable.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.
This has nothing to do with Twitter allowing or not allowing Nazis to use its platform. This is to do with their spectacular failure to monetize the platform and their obsesstion with user metrics over cash.

The crux of their issue if they have bugger all idea who their user base is. Where as Facebook can tell you have many left handed half Korean half Chinese women between 25-30 living in Fulham favourite clothing brand is Karen Millen.

Plank · February 2017

Plank said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

First law of economics is that supply equals demand.

In agriculture subsidiary plays a role.

Meant subsidy. Fiddly keypad.

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:
@BBCJonSopel: Extraordinary. Sen Blumenthal says Judge #Gorsuch explicitly wanted his concerns about @realDonaldTrump attacks on judiciary made public

Is there a market on Gorsuch being confirmed, then overturning Trump's ban (and maybe some other stuff) ?
Judges have always complained about politicians, and vice Versace.

The GOP in the Senate are more than happy with Gorsuch as an SC nominee, is it actually possible for his nomination to be rescinded at this stage?
Vice Versace is an awesome typo

Is that Chuka's favourite clothing brand?

PlatoSaid · February 2017

How racist

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/paris-to-build-barrier-around-eiffel-tower-to-counter-terrorism

Beverley_C · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

BevC - people would agree, if only they had the time to stop and think. Cucumbers are fifty pence for heavens' sake.

Indeed

--- Mushroom soup for two ---

250g chestnut mushrooms £1
100g onion 10p (ish)
sprig of Thyme 10p ish
one clove garlic 1p
nob of butter

Cost £1.21 (ish), defo less than £1.50 for two people, 20 mins inc prep

Use a medium size pot (15 - 20cm across)

Fry the garlic and onions in the butter until golden. Chop the mushrooms quite small and add to the onions and garlic and mix well. Add the thyme and just cover the whole lot with boiling water and leave to simmer for 10 to 15 minutes.

Blend with a hand blender until smooth and add salt and pepper to suit your taste. If you need to thicken it then mix 1 tsp of cornflour with one tbsp of water and stir into the soup.

Ishmael_Z · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

BevC - people would agree, if only they had the time to stop and think. Cucumbers are fifty pence for heavens' sake.
Indeed

--- Mushroom soup for two ---

250g chestnut mushrooms £1
100g onion 10p (ish)
sprig of Thyme 10p ish
one clove garlic 1p
nob of butter

Cost £1.21 (ish), defo less than £1.50 for two people, 20 mins inc prep

Use a medium size pot (15 - 20cm across)

Fry the garlic and onions in the butter until golden. Chop the mushrooms quite small and add to the onions and garlic and mix well. Add the thyme and just cover the whole lot with boiling water and leave to simmer for 10 to 15 minutes.

Blend with a hand blender until smooth and add salt and pepper to suit your taste. If you need to thicken it then mix 1 tsp of cornflour with one tbsp of water and stir into the soup.

Handmade soup always seems to me not worth the effort. I once made tomato soup; it took what felt like 48 hours, and was indistinguishable from Heinz.

Casino_Royale · February 2017

Gordon Brown. Popular chap.

PlatoSaid · February 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856

I honestly think Twitter is doomed - its new safe space censorship/banning conservative views has become bizarre.

They've just banned Gab's account - that looks like anti-trust too. It's a great shame. Apple is refusing to sanction Gab's app too.

The liberal left have lost the plot - shutting down speech platforms doesn't disappear opinions - they just pop up somewhere else more irked than before.

Beverley_C · February 2017

Ishmael_Z said:

Handmade soup always seems to me not worth the effort. I once made tomato soup; it took what felt like 48 hours, and was indistinguishable from Heinz.

That's tomatoes for you... why do you think I used mushrooms in the recipe?

MarqueeMark · February 2017

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

Twitter is lucky. A meaningful boycott of President Trump would start by people closing their Twitter accounts to object his use of it....

SimonStClare · February 2017

Richard_Nabavi said:
Clive Lewis has published his resignation letter, complete with the authentic spelling mistakes you'd expect from someone tipped as a future Labour leader:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/09/corbyn-dismisses-claims-he-has-set-date-for-resigning-as-fake-news-politics-live 13:41

Anymore news as to why Diane Abbott required assistance/dragging through to the lobbies?

Casino_Royale · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.

If we leave the EU and CAP, we'll get those from global food imports.

The problem may be UK consumers expecting *British* farm produce to be ultra cheap.

In reality, in the long-term, it will move into value-added, higher-end products and maize/corn/basic root veg will be a niche organic market in the UK, and not a mass one.

Alanbrooke · February 2017

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
I honestly think Twitter is doomed - its new safe space censorship/banning conservative views has become bizarre.

They've just banned Gab's account - that looks like anti-trust too. It's a great shame. Apple is refusing to sanction Gab's app too.

The liberal left have lost the plot - shutting down speech platforms doesn't disappear opinions - they just pop up somewhere else more irked than before.

the Left is all for diversity as long as it doesnt diverge from their own opinions

Theuniondivvie · February 2017

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.

Chortle.

https://twitter.com/laudreport/status/827513421587431425

https://twitter.com/richardhine/status/829513758800232448

Pulpstar · February 2017

SimonStClare said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Clive Lewis has published his resignation letter, complete with the authentic spelling mistakes you'd expect from someone tipped as a future Labour leader:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/09/corbyn-dismisses-claims-he-has-set-date-for-resigning-as-fake-news-politics-live 13:41
Anymore news as to why Diane Abbott required assistance/dragging through to the lobbies?

Sudden onset of Brexititis again.

TOPPING · February 2017

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour and to the fact that their workforces lingua franca is not English.

Isn't that because British consumers demand cheap food? If we were willing to pay more for what we buy at the supermarkets, presumably higher wages could be paid and agricultural work would become a more attractive option to Brits. Employing someone year round when you only need them for a few months each year is a big cost.

First law of economics is that supply equals demand.

The consumers are only able to demand what suppliers are able to supply. If suppliers stop supplying cheap food, consumers will stop being able to demand it. To expect consumers to unilaterally demand expensive food defies all economics (unless its for something specific like consumers buying free range eggs).

Not only is that not the first law of economics but it is the obverse of what is commonly acknowledged as the first law of economics: resources are scarce.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

John McDonnell has gone full Canary. Who knew the Manchester Evening News was owned by Rupert Murdoch.

@TomBoadle: John McDonnell doorstep: "it’s been a tough week for us, obviously" before predicting Labour uniting and Tories splitting over the next yr.

McDonnell on @labourlewis' resignation: "a real loss, we hope he’ll be back in due course... it's a shame, but I'm sure he''ll be back."

McDonnell on Corbyn: “There’s all this fake news story about his future but that comes from the Murdoch press and who can trust them?”

Charles · February 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
It's a fair way away. It's going to be hugely capital intensive. Existing farm machinery is in total £1m+ and we're talking doubling or tripling that.

Also consumer don't like damaged fruit, and it's tough to make robotic pickers (especially for soft fruits) that don't damage the crop. You could automatic harvesters and other equipment, but not sure the saving will be huge as you'd need to manually drive them from field to field.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

SimonStClare said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
Clive Lewis has published his resignation letter, complete with the authentic spelling mistakes you'd expect from someone tipped as a future Labour leader:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/09/corbyn-dismisses-claims-he-has-set-date-for-resigning-as-fake-news-politics-live 13:41
Anymore news as to why Diane Abbott required assistance/dragging through to the lobbies?

Still recovering from her migraine.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

https://twitter.com/JohnFinnemore/status/829660623323688960

PlatoSaid · February 2017

MarqueeMark said:

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
And then twitter goes and alienates 25% of its users. Maybe the liberals will eventually realise that opening their mouths and pouring forth vitriol now has consequences.
Twitter is lucky. A meaningful boycott of President Trump would start by people closing their Twitter accounts to object his use of it....

If Donald opens a Gab account - that'll throw a lot of investors.

Casino_Royale · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

BevC - people would agree, if only they had the time to stop and think. Cucumbers are fifty pence for heavens' sake.
Indeed

--- Mushroom soup for two ---

250g chestnut mushrooms £1
100g onion 10p (ish)
sprig of Thyme 10p ish
one clove garlic 1p
nob of butter

Cost £1.21 (ish), defo less than £1.50 for two people, 20 mins inc prep

Use a medium size pot (15 - 20cm across)

Fry the garlic and onions in the butter until golden. Chop the mushrooms quite small and add to the onions and garlic and mix well. Add the thyme and just cover the whole lot with boiling water and leave to simmer for 10 to 15 minutes.

Blend with a hand blender until smooth and add salt and pepper to suit your taste. If you need to thicken it then mix 1 tsp of cornflour with one tbsp of water and stir into the soup.

The problem is not the price of the ingredients, it's the can't-be-arsed, don't-know-how attitude. And possibly don't-have-the-kitchen-equipment as well.

Most of the very poor go to places buy cheap processed foods that can be thrown in a microwave/oven, that tends to be very orange with plenty of MSG.

You need families and social networks that can teach you to cook, pick up the skills, and dispel some of the fears.

On top of all of that is motivation: many people get stuck because they can't be motivated to move, work, cook, learn or exercise for anything or anyone unless it delivers them instant gratification.

PlatoSaid · February 2017

Alanbrooke said:

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
I honestly think Twitter is doomed - its new safe space censorship/banning conservative views has become bizarre.

They've just banned Gab's account - that looks like anti-trust too. It's a great shame. Apple is refusing to sanction Gab's app too.

The liberal left have lost the plot - shutting down speech platforms doesn't disappear opinions - they just pop up somewhere else more irked than before.
the Left is all for diversity as long as it doesnt diverge from their own opinions

Nazi!!!!

Casino_Royale · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Continuing the discussion about Brexit and agriculture:

https://www.ft.com/content/e22c9d5c-e95c-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Good news for the workers:

"Farms and food producers are having to compete harder for a shrinking pool of workers. One poultry farmer said he had raised wages by 15 per cent. Pete Taylor, operations director at recruitment firm Encore Personnel, which supplies labour to the food industry, is laying on minibuses to bring in staff to pick and process food in Spalding, Lincolnshire, from the wider surrounding area.

“Over Christmas, one company said that out of 500 workers on one particular shift, they were about 200 short,” he said. “It’s the aftermath panic of Brexit, and people are running for the hills. They’re certainly not running for the Fens, which is where we need them.” "

However, on the subject of not-at-all-xenophobic Britain:

"Nick Houghton, managing director of a food manufacturing company in Nottingham, relies on EU staff to fill 75 per cent of his workforce and complains that the atmosphere has become increasingly hostile.

“Staff have said to me they don’t talk on the phone on the bus any more because they don’t want people to hear them speaking Polish. That’s despicable in my view,” he said.

Mr Houghton scoffs when asked why he can’t find local workers to fill the gaps. “There isn’t a pool of unemployed workers sitting there waiting for the EU workers to go back, ready and able to take up these jobs,” he said."
I'm not surprised, there are so many parts of the arable industry addicted to cheap, seasonal labour.
There are so many UK consumers addicted to cheap food prices.
The longer the addiction goes on, the more the hike in food prices of coming off, because the alternative (to keep prices down) is capital investment.

At present assuming a sustained reduction of the workforce I think we can expect a 10% rise in the real terms of cost fresh food.
Given the current hysteria about lettuces and courgettes, we can expect some fruity front pages if you're right.

In such a scenario, the front pages would not be fruity.

danielmawbs · February 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Kids are great....

School sends parents an awkwardly hilarious letter of complaint home after their ten-year-old son invents an imaginary friend called ‘Wildo the Dildo’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4207314/School-sends-parents-letter-Wildo-Dildo.html

You've just proven my second law on newspaper headlines.

I stole the first "If it has a question mark then the answer is No, and don't bother reading"
The second is "Any headline with the word hilarious is inevitably dull. And don't bother reading."

I can't believe I fell for your. Luck bait. Calling a imaginary friend dildo is, I'll admit mildly assuming, the schools letter and the DM article however sucked all the fun.

Beverley_C · February 2017

PlatoSaid said:
How racist

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/paris-to-build-barrier-around-eiffel-tower-to-counter-terrorism

Racist????

I grew up in Belfast when the whole city centre was ringed by a barrier to counter terrorism. There was nothing racist about it, they searched everybody. We were all treated with equal suspicion.

TOPPING · February 2017

Charles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:
from pt on agriculture:

Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
It's a fair way away. It's going to be hugely capital intensive. Existing farm machinery is in total £1m+ and we're talking doubling or tripling that.
Also consumer don't like damaged fruit, and it's tough to make robotic pickers (especially for soft fruits) that don't damage the crop. You could automatic harvesters and other equipment, but not sure the saving will be huge as you'd need to manually drive them from field to field.

I think the supermarkets' initiative to promote "misshapen" or "wonky" veg is an excellent one. Who's to say what a good looking carrot looks like.

Alanbrooke · February 2017

PlatoSaid said:

Alanbrooke said:

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Even Trump can't save Tw@tter....

The social networking service reported a loss of $167m (£133m) in the final three months of 2016, as against $90m in the same period a year earlier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920856
I honestly think Twitter is doomed - its new safe space censorship/banning conservative views has become bizarre.

They've just banned Gab's account - that looks like anti-trust too. It's a great shame. Apple is refusing to sanction Gab's app too.

The liberal left have lost the plot - shutting down speech platforms doesn't disappear opinions - they just pop up somewhere else more irked than before.
the Left is all for diversity as long as it doesnt diverge from their own opinions
Nazi!!!!

of course

it's just another type of socialism :-)

Sandpit · February 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:
@BBCJonSopel: Extraordinary. Sen Blumenthal says Judge #Gorsuch explicitly wanted his concerns about @realDonaldTrump attacks on judiciary made public

Is there a market on Gorsuch being confirmed, then overturning Trump's ban (and maybe some other stuff) ?
Judges have always complained about politicians, and vice Versace.

The GOP in the Senate are more than happy with Gorsuch as an SC nominee, is it actually possible for his nomination to be rescinded at this stage?
Vice Versace is an awesome typo

Indeed so. Damn you, iPad autocorrect.

Sean_F · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Handmade soup always seems to me not worth the effort. I once made tomato soup; it took what felt like 48 hours, and was indistinguishable from Heinz.
That's tomatoes for you... why do you think I used mushrooms in the recipe?

If you're willing to do your own preparation and cooking, you can indeed eat well quite cheaply.

Pulpstar · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

PlatoSaid said:
How racist

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/paris-to-build-barrier-around-eiffel-tower-to-counter-terrorism
Racist????

I grew up in Belfast when the whole city centre was ringed by a barrier to counter terrorism. There was nothing racist about it, they searched everybody. We were all treated with equal suspicion.

Plato's point.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

I'm sure someone will call this being bitchy not racist

Conservative official suspended over 'racist' tweet aimed at Diane Abbott

Alan Pearmain, deputy chairman of the South Ribble Conservative Association, shared a tweet that portrayed the shadow home secretary as an ape

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/09/alan-pearmain-conservative-official-suspended-over-racist-tweet-aimed-at-diane-abbott?CMP=share_btn_tw

Alanbrooke · February 2017

Beverley_C said:

PlatoSaid said:
How racist

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/paris-to-build-barrier-around-eiffel-tower-to-counter-terrorism
Racist????

I grew up in Belfast when the whole city centre was ringed by a barrier to counter terrorism. There was nothing racist about it, they searched everybody. We were all treated with equal suspicion.

the seventies

oh happy days

hoax bombscares during exam time was another favourite

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