politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead with ICM amongst REMAIN voters – more poll numbers

Gosh

Brexit Division on Chris Leslie amendment:

Govt won by 33.

Minimum 5 Con MPs voting against Govt:

Neill
Soubry
Clarke
Sandbach
Tyrie

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38879557

tlg86 said:

Is it dumb? The remainers have nowhere else to go.

I think quite a few of them are going to the LDs (me included, so long as Corbyn is leader).

MikeL said:

ICM/Guardian:

CON 42 (=)
LAB 27 (+1)
LD 10 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
SNP 5 (+1)

Dates 3rd-5th Feb
N=1,984

Implies more Remain than Leave voters overall.

5...4...3...2....1.....Justin tells us its not bad news for Labour.

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Alanbrooke said:

tlg86 said:

Alanbrooke said:

sheesh

Fillon expenses
Sarkozy suspected fraud
Hamon Corbyn junior
Macron closet gay
Le Pen expenses

France really has a fantastic choice

The odd one out is Macron - nothing wrong if he is gay, though I don't know if the French would be bothered.

the issue isnt the gayness its that hes apparently trying to hide it

I think that is a non starter. Why should anyone be forced to reveal their sexuality of they don't want to? He is not being accused of a crime. He is not even being accused of something that is morally dubious. Should we claim that Le Pen is hiding something because she has not explicitly stated she is heterosexual?

Hopefully the French will take a more reasoned view of this.

Its not that straightforward.

Macron is married Brigitte Trogneux, his former teacher 20 years his senior. That isn't the problem although it will raise eyebrows in more staid circles. The suggestion is that he has a gay lover his is trying to hush up. It's not the gayness so much as the infidelity, which is exacerbated by the connected denials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN15M0RK

France's tightly-contested presidential race sank deeper into smear and sleaze on Tuesday after centrist Emmanuel Macron was forced to deny an extramarital affair and as scandal continued to dog conservative Francois Fillon and his party.

A slump in support for Fillon after accusations that he used taxpayers' money to pay his wife for work she may not have done has propelled Macron into the top spot in opinion polls.

Late on Monday, Macron, a centrist former economy minister and ex-banker sought to kill rumors of a gay relationship outside his marriage to Brigitte Trogneux and push his campaign on.

If he was gay, and wanted to hide it, marrying his former school teacher would seem like an odd way to go about it.

Taps mic...sniff sniff.... WRONG Corbynism sweeping the nation!

ThomasNashe said:

tlg86 said:

Is it dumb? The remainers have nowhere else to go.

I think quite a few of them are going to the LDs (me included, so long as Corbyn is leader).

Do you live in a Tory-Labour marginal? If you don't, would it make a difference if you did?

tlg86 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Alanbrooke said:

tlg86 said:

Alanbrooke said:

sheesh

Fillon expenses
Sarkozy suspected fraud
Hamon Corbyn junior
Macron closet gay
Le Pen expenses

France really has a fantastic choice

The odd one out is Macron - nothing wrong if he is gay, though I don't know if the French would be bothered.

the issue isnt the gayness its that hes apparently trying to hide it

I think that is a non starter. Why should anyone be forced to reveal their sexuality of they don't want to? He is not being accused of a crime. He is not even being accused of something that is morally dubious. Should we claim that Le Pen is hiding something because she has not explicitly stated she is heterosexual?

Hopefully the French will take a more reasoned view of this.

Its not that straightforward.

Macron is married Brigitte Trogneux, his former teacher 20 years his senior. That isn't the problem although it will raise eyebrows in more staid circles. The suggestion is that he has a gay lover his is trying to hush up. It's not the gayness so much as the infidelity, which is exacerbated by the connected denials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN15M0RK

France's tightly-contested presidential race sank deeper into smear and sleaze on Tuesday after centrist Emmanuel Macron was forced to deny an extramarital affair and as scandal continued to dog conservative Francois Fillon and his party.

A slump in support for Fillon after accusations that he used taxpayers' money to pay his wife for work she may not have done has propelled Macron into the top spot in opinion polls.

Late on Monday, Macron, a centrist former economy minister and ex-banker sought to kill rumors of a gay relationship outside his marriage to Brigitte Trogneux and push his campaign on.

If he was gay, and wanted to hide it, marrying his former school teacher would seem like an odd way to go about it.

Doesnt make any sense to me either. Now he has put it front and centre in such forthright terms it better be true or the French press are going to hang him out to dry!

In a voter survey published on Tuesday, 65 percent of respondents polled after he made his comments said they still wanted him replaced as candidate of the center-right

Doesn't suggest he is excessively popular either.

Am I being really thick here...this supposed government concession...haven't the government always said there would be a vote on the final deal?

Morris_Dancer said:

One that annoys me which I sometimes do myself is saying 'fire arrows'. Arrows are loosed or released or shot, but there's no fire involved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTd_0FRAwOQ

Mr. Indigo, ha, I thought that video might arrive (that or the flaming katana bren gun...). Lindy Beige has excellent videos.

I'm pretty relaxed about most technical terminology (chainmail really should just be mail, but it doesn't bother me), but firing arrows does.

Angela Eagle asking for 'official proper Treasury forecasts' rather than other peoples 'guesses' of the outcome of Brexit.

We got the Treasury's official forecast before the poll. It was significantly worse than an honest guess.

chestnut said:

MikeL said:

ICM/Guardian:

CON 42 (=)
LAB 27 (+1)
LD 10 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
SNP 5 (+1)

Dates 3rd-5th Feb
N=1,984

Implies slightly more Remain than Leave voters overall - ie Party numbers just on Remain side of the average of the two.

It's something like a 3% swing from Left to Right.

Con+UKIP now 54 - was around 51 in 2015.

And what a turnaround from Blair's glory years.

On topic, Corbyn's A50 strategy makes sense if he wants to increase his party's support from 27%.

ThomasNashe said:

tlg86 said:

ThomasNashe said:

tlg86 said:

Is it dumb? The remainers have nowhere else to go.

I think quite a few of them are going to the LDs (me included, so long as Corbyn is leader).

Do you live in a Tory-Labour marginal? If you don't, would it make a difference if you did?

I do actually: Ealing Central and Acton. Lab held by 254 votes as far as I can recall.

Interesting, thank you. The Tories really could clean up at the next election.

We know Corbyn is dumb, as I understand it that is a part of his charm, ahem. But focussing on Remainers would be a mistake. They are a diminishing band and will diminish even more when article 50 is actually utilised. Even among remainers there is an acceptance (with some notable exceptions on here) that the result of the referendum needs to be implemented. Corbyn is right to accept this. To do otherwise would be very damaging for the Labour Party.

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/829037883302506497/photo/1

All long time Eurosceptics and members of the Labour Safeguards group.

Richard_Tyndall said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/829037883302506497/photo/1

All long time Eurosceptics and members of the Labour Safeguards group.

I'm about 100 yards outside Kelvin Hopkins' seat, and went to hear him speak during the referendum, and thought he was very good. I distributed about 1,000 leaflets for Labour Leave in Luton.

OT. I read that polling as showing precisely the opposite Mike, namely that Labour has lost almost all support amongst Leave voters and has to find a means of turning that around. All the evidence is that the main post-election loss in Labour support has come disproportionately from Leave supporters. That's born out by two demographic splits. Firstly that Labour is now polling no better amongst C2DEs than it is amongst ABC1s, being 15% behind the Conservatives with both groups. Secondly that Labour is no less than 39% behind the Conservatives amongst 65+. (Latest YouGov). Both C2DEs and 65+ elderly are heavily Leave supporting.

Corbyn's strategy is wrong but not in the way you suggest, Mike. He's right to try and position Labour as a party that can once again appeal to Leave as well as Remain voters, just as the Conservatives have always done and managed to do in the referendum and beyond. But where he's wrong and indeed shows all the political nous of a 4 year old is in thinking he can somehow appeal to Leave voters while simultaneously making statements along the lines that immigration from the EU is not a problem, thus undermining the attempts of Keir Starmer and a host of others to redefine Labour's position on free movement. Until Corbyn moves his position radically on free movement (or is himself moved out) Labour's ability to appeal to most Leave voters will remain stillborn.

chestnut said:

Black_Rook said:

Corbyn's strategy makes perfect sense for a leader trying to hold the constituent parts of Labour's fragmented support base together - but this may transpire to be a futile exercise in the long run.

I continue to maintain that Labour is now, effectively, a cluster of several smaller parties, living within - and fighting for control over - one sickly body.

Once Brexit is completed - where will all these UKIP working class voters go?

He's playing the long game instead of chasing the relatively small band of middle class, metropolitans that are obsessed with staying in the EU.

If Labour stays in the hands of the Corbynites then there's no way on Earth that the Labour to Ukip defectors are going back. Even if it doesn't then it's quite possible that most of them are lost to Labour anyway.

Red Ukip supporters and the Corbyn Far Left might be able to agree on a few areas e.g. throwing money at the NHS, but culturally and on many key planks of policy they are poles apart.

I may be a bit premature but it looks like the art 50 bill will be passed unammended to the Lords. What's the chances of it coming back in the same state?

@jessicaelgot: Another MP texts; "we've just voted to give ourselves less power to influence the final deal than the European Parliament #takebackcontrol"

Osborne broke a 3 line whip to miss tonight's vote

Scott_P said:

Osborne broke a 3 line whip to miss tonight's vote

probably enjoying a lash of the whip elsewhere

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

Alanbrooke said:

probably enjoying a lash of the whip elsewhere

@JasonGroves1: George Osborne missed tonight's Brexit vote despite a three-line whip. Giving a speech on Brexit in Antwerp apparently...

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

Pulpstar said:

Off topic: This divorce ruling is utterly astounding - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38891663

Absolutely. I wonder why he didn't apply for a clean break at the time, did they not exist ?

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

It's embarrassing.

williamglenn said:

The word forecast should be replaced with the word assumption in all political discussion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_wild-ass_guess

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

3% by 2030 places Brexit alongside many other policy developments in terms of impact on GDP.

ThomasNashe said:

David_Evershed said:

ThomasNashe said:

tlg86 said:

Is it dumb? The remainers have nowhere else to go.

I think quite a few of them are going to the LDs (me included, so long as Corbyn is leader).

I hope you support economic liberalism Thomas. We don't want the Lib Dems turned into Labour Lite or Socialism Lite.

Rational pragmatism is what I favour. And thanks for the welcome, btw.

And the best part is you can keep fit delivering Focus leaflets :>

Alanbrooke said:

Belgium - famous for sexual deviancy

I have to go there in March

Really? I hadn't heard that...

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

3% by 2030 places Brexit alongside many other policy developments in terms of impact on GDP.

except of course events will just wipe out all the nerdy assumptions people make.

a 2004 forecast for this year would be full of frothy "new economy" crap and ignore the great recession, Brexit and Trump

Why our forecast of 13 years hence should be more accurate eludes me.

Alanbrooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

3% by 2030 places Brexit alongside many other policy developments in terms of impact on GDP.

except of course events will just wipe out all the nerdy assumptions people make.

a 2004 forecast for this year would be full of frothy "new economy" crap and ignore the great recession, Brexit and Trump

Why our forecast of 13 years hence should be more accurate eludes me.

quite my point, Alan. 3% is noise, we'll never feel the effect of it.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

OT. I read that polling as showing precisely the opposite Mike, namely that Labour has lost almost all support amongst Leave voters and has to find a means of turning that around. All the evidence is that the main post-election loss in Labour support has come disproportionately from Leave supporters. That's born out by two demographic splits. Firstly that Labour is now polling no better amongst C2DEs than it is amongst ABC1s, being 15% behind the Conservatives with both groups. Secondly that Labour is no less than 39% behind the Conservatives amongst 65+. (Latest YouGov). Both C2DEs and 65+ elderly are heavily Leave supporting.

Corbyn's strategy is wrong but not in the way you suggest, Mike. He's right to try and position Labour as a party that can once again appeal to Leave as well as Remain voters, just as the Conservatives have always done and managed to do in the referendum and beyond. But where he's wrong and indeed shows all the political nous of a 4 year old is in thinking he can somehow appeal to Leave voters while simultaneously making statements along the lines that immigration from the EU is not a problem, thus undermining the attempts of Keir Starmer and a host of others to redefine Labour's position on free movement. Until Corbyn moves his position radically on free movement (or is himself moved out) Labour's ability to appeal to most Leave voters will remain stillborn.

Yes - I also read it like that... If his vote with remainers had utterly collapsed that would hardly be an endorsement of current strategy.

Jezza has been for LEAVE for 40 years!

And he's won two landslide victories to to become/stay Lab leader.

glw said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

Blocking Facebook at work would add more to the economy than that.

getting rid of Osborne closed that gap in one fell swoop

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. T, not heard that one myself, but I have heard 'quite unique'.

*sighs*

One that annoys me which I sometimes do myself is saying 'fire arrows'. Arrows are loosed or released or shot, but there's no fire involved.

What's wrong with 'quite unique' ?
You'd be perfectly in order to describe one of two surviving examples of a Ming vase as 'not quite unique', and were you to smash one, the survivor would then be 'quite unique'.

Gove in full Vote Leave mode in the Commons.

He's like a catalyst for winding up the Labour benches, and seems to be thoroughly enjoying himself.

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

probably enjoying a lash of the whip elsewhere

@JasonGroves1: George Osborne missed tonight's Brexit vote despite a three-line whip. Giving a speech on Brexit in Antwerp apparently...

Belgium - famous for sexual deviancy

Also chocolate and beer. Not to mention the cheapest cigars in Western Europe, inventing mayonnaise with chips and being able to run reasonably successfully without an elected government.

All told Belgium has some good things going for it. Shame the place is such a dump.

Mr L

good evening, hope 2017 is treating you well

Wotcha, Mr. Brooke. Got the decorators in, which makes life bloody grizzly and the cat died last month so Herself is still in mourning and moping around the house. Oh, and my back is giving me major gip (am having to use a stick on my morning walk). On the bright side the local off-licence is doing a deal, a litre of The Grouse for seventeen quid, so at least the pain-killer is cheap, and my son hasn't asked for money for a good three weeks. On the whole, mustn't grumble,

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

probably enjoying a lash of the whip elsewhere

@JasonGroves1: George Osborne missed tonight's Brexit vote despite a three-line whip. Giving a speech on Brexit in Antwerp apparently...

Belgium - famous for sexual deviancy

Also chocolate and beer. Not to mention the cheapest cigars in Western Europe, inventing mayonnaise with chips and being able to run reasonably successfully without an elected government.

All told Belgium has some good things going for it. Shame the place is such a dump.

Mr L

good evening, hope 2017 is treating you well

Wotcha, Mr. Brooke. Got the decorators in, which makes life bloody grizzly and the cat died last month so Herself is still in mourning and moping around the house. Oh, and my back is giving me major gip (am having to use a stick on my morning walk). On the bright side the local off-licence is doing a deal, a litre of The Grouse for seventeen quid, so at least the pain-killer is cheap, and my son hasn't asked for money for a good three weeks. On the whole, mustn't grumble,

Oh

Sad to hear about your kitty ;[

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

3% by 2030 places Brexit alongside many other policy developments in terms of impact on GDP.

except of course events will just wipe out all the nerdy assumptions people make.

a 2004 forecast for this year would be full of frothy "new economy" crap and ignore the great recession, Brexit and Trump

Why our forecast of 13 years hence should be more accurate eludes me.

quite my point, Alan. 3% is noise, we'll never feel the effect of it.

And my point in posting the forecast

MTimT said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

MTimT said:

BBC story about the Brexit vote holds this absolute nugget:

"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."

For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.

That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.

That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.

I was amazed Carney was still pumping the slower growth theme given how poor his forecasts have been to date. I would have thought he would want to let it gently disappear from view.

3% by 2030 places Brexit alongside many other policy developments in terms of impact on GDP.

except of course events will just wipe out all the nerdy assumptions people make.

a 2004 forecast for this year would be full of frothy "new economy" crap and ignore the great recession, Brexit and Trump

Why our forecast of 13 years hence should be more accurate eludes me.

quite my point, Alan. 3% is noise, we'll never feel the effect of it.

And my point in posting the forecast

I'll have you know I care deeply about my 40p!

I'm in agreement of course.

surbiton said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/829037883302506497/photo/1

All long time Eurosceptics and members of the Labour Safeguards group.

Why the fuck do they not join the Tories as they are just that ?

Unspoofable

chestnut said:

Guardian Poll with changes to last online VI poll before the referendum

Con 42 (+8)
Lab 27 (-5)
UKIP 12 (-5)
LD 10 (+3)

That's quite something, so against all prevailing wisdom the Europe issue is working out very nicely for the Tories.