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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead with ICM amongst REMAIN voters – more poll numbers
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead with ICM amongst REMAIN voters – more poll numbers that make make Corbyn’s A50 strategy look dumb
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Govt won by 33.
Minimum 5 Con MPs voting against Govt:
Neill
Soubry
Clarke
Sandbach
Tyrie
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38879557
Corbyn's 'strategy' recognises that the vote cannot be ignored and that a large chunk of the 21% sitting in UKIP Leave were Labour less than a generation ago.
Macron is married Brigitte Trogneux, his former teacher 20 years his senior. That isn't the problem although it will raise eyebrows in more staid circles. The suggestion is that he has a gay lover his is trying to hush up. It's not the gayness so much as the infidelity, which is exacerbated by the connected denials.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN15M0RK
France's tightly-contested presidential race sank deeper into smear and sleaze on Tuesday after centrist Emmanuel Macron was forced to deny an extramarital affair and as scandal continued to dog conservative Francois Fillon and his party.
A slump in support for Fillon after accusations that he used taxpayers' money to pay his wife for work she may not have done has propelled Macron into the top spot in opinion polls.
Late on Monday, Macron, a centrist former economy minister and ex-banker sought to kill rumors of a gay relationship outside his marriage to Brigitte Trogneux and push his campaign on.
CON 42 (=)
LAB 27 (+1)
LD 10 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
SNP 5 (+1)
Dates 3rd-5th Feb
N=1,984
Implies slightly more Remain than Leave voters overall - ie Party numbers just on Remain side of the average of the two.
WRONGCorbynism sweeping the nation!*sighs*
One that annoys me which I sometimes do myself is saying 'fire arrows'. Arrows are loosed or released or shot, but there's no fire involved.
On-topic: you could reach the opposite conclusion. Labour have more ground to make up amongst Leave voters.
In a voter survey published on Tuesday, 65 percent of respondents polled after he made his comments said they still wanted him replaced as candidate of the center-right
Doesn't suggest he is excessively popular either.
Con+UKIP now 54 - was around 51 in 2015.
I'm pretty relaxed about most technical terminology (chainmail really should just be mail, but it doesn't bother me), but firing arrows does.
We got the Treasury's official forecast before the poll. It was significantly worse than an honest guess.
We're learning that very few Tories are willing to die in a ditch for the EU.
Lib Dems sixth among the current student cohort. "tuition fees" - ahem.
I continue to maintain that Labour is now, effectively, a cluster of several smaller parties, living within - and fighting for control over - one sickly body.
Can't find on Parliament website.
He's playing the long game instead of chasing the relatively small band of middle class, metropolitans that are obsessed with staying in the EU.
Corbyn's strategy is wrong but not in the way you suggest, Mike. He's right to try and position Labour as a party that can once again appeal to Leave as well as Remain voters, just as the Conservatives have always done and managed to do in the referendum and beyond. But where he's wrong and indeed shows all the political nous of a 4 year old is in thinking he can somehow appeal to Leave voters while simultaneously making statements along the lines that immigration from the EU is not a problem, thus undermining the attempts of Keir Starmer and a host of others to redefine Labour's position on free movement. Until Corbyn moves his position radically on free movement (or is himself moved out) Labour's ability to appeal to most Leave voters will remain stillborn.
Red Ukip supporters and the Corbyn Far Left might be able to agree on a few areas e.g. throwing money at the NHS, but culturally and on many key planks of policy they are poles apart.
"The UK's economy could be 3% smaller by 2030 than if Britain had voted Remain, according to forecasts in the IFS's annual Green Budget."
For there to be only a 3% difference 13 years down the road, how small does the fall in annual GDP growth have to be? 1.5% instead of 1.7%.
That is the economic armageddon we are supposed to dread. A fall in annual GDP GROWTH of 2 thousandths of the economy.
That is the equivalent of a person on 40k pa getting annual raises of 40 pence less per week than would otherwise be the case.
The Tories have to kill immigration and free movement as an issue.
I'm increasingly of the view that Corbyn needs May and Ruth Davidson to succeed to get Labour back in the game whilst he is there.
assumptions are the inputs to a forecast
All told Belgium has some good things going for it. Shame the place is such a dump.
I have to go there in MarchReally? I hadn't heard that...
though truth is he's not a minister.
a 2004 forecast for this year would be full of frothy "new economy" crap and ignore the great recession, Brexit and Trump
Why our forecast of 13 years hence should be more accurate eludes me.
Nuclear deterrence
Support for the armed forces
Social security entitlements
Crime and public order
Grammar schools
Patriotism
English votes for English laws
Overseas aid
Human rights
As I said, on most issues other than NHS worship these two groups almost inhabit different planets.
good evening, hope 2017 is treating you well
And he's won two landslide victories to to become/stay Lab leader.
You'd be perfectly in order to describe one of two surviving examples of a Ming vase as 'not quite unique', and were you to smash one, the survivor would then be 'quite unique'.
And the party colour is that of Hi-Vis jackets so you will be safe delivering leaflets at night.
He's like a catalyst for winding up the Labour benches, and seems to be thoroughly enjoying himself.
Con 42 (+8)
Lab 27 (-5)
UKIP 12 (-5)
LD 10 (+3)
Sad to hear about your kitty ;[
I'm in agreement of course.