politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May
Comments
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As long as they have a hundred million behind them.DecrepitJohnL said:
Clarence Darrow: When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President. I’m beginning to believe it.Casino_Royale said:
So why did both the Republicans and Democrats put up such dreadful candidates in their primaries?david_herdson said:
Yes, I'd agree with that. Though it'll almost certainly end badly if he doesn't care (and I don't think he does, though that might just be show) unless he can keep a lot of the public onside. If he can do that, the other politicos will be terrified that their own position is under threat from a force they don't understand and will run with him for fear of the alternative; if he can't, they'll eat him.SeanT said:
I think he's both, the reason he's sometimes five moves ahead of everyone else is because he's approaching politics in a totally different way, his own way, with his own rules, and this is because he doesn't know or care how normal politics works.david_herdson said:
I remember that the first year of Obama's presidency, he sounded half-candidate and half-senator. Trump is still sounding half-candidate and half-TV personality.PlatoSaid said:He's at it again
Donald J Trump
When will the Democrats give us our Attorney General and rest of Cabinet! They should be ashamed of themselves! No wonder D.C. doesn't work!
I'm still trying to work out if he's genuinely got no idea how politics works or whether he's five moves ahead of everyone.
Hence the sometimes horrific blunders, which he shrugs off, and the weirdly clever moves, which blindside everyone else
And, no, I don't think Sanders would have been any better. Rubio came across as the best of the worst, but was clearly inexperienced and a bit robotic.
A nation of 300m. Trump and Hillary were it.
Jesus.0 -
May be literally taking your life in your hands there...JosiasJessop said:
Just don't go to prisonbabes.comHYUFD said:
Indeed as Sugardaddys.com showsSeanT said:
Gotta play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Quite, to misquote Mrs MertonSeanT said:
What first attracted you to millionaire thriller writer S K Tremayne who also gets free luxury travel around the world where he's allowed to bring companions?HYUFD said:
The fact you a millionaire thriller writing anoraky politics geek with a pad in Camden no doubt helps a littleSeanT said:
I'm living proof that you can be a saddo anoraky politics geek AND have sex with loads of hot chicks. You should be encouraged by my example.Carolus_Rex said:
The mere fact that he's here means that fundamentally, he's a saddo who spends too much time on an anoracky website. Just like the rest of us.Anorak said:
... that said, there are quite a few young women who simply *like* older guys. A happy discovery.
(fx: checks)
Darned, it no longer exists. Twenty-odd years ago when I was doing Internet stuff, there was an American website that allowed you to correspond with women in American prisons. A customer complained it was not loading properly, so we all had a look.
One fairly attractive woman was in for life, for murder. Her marital status was 'widowed'.
It did not take much to connect the dots on that case ...0 -
Which nicely coordinated with the protests in pro Remain cities, they are now not going to get it all their own waySouthamObserver said:
Hmmm - the no state visit petition only started to get coverage as a result of the signatures it had got.HYUFD said:
Because it has been up longer and trumpeted by every news outlet going for 2 days and been used as another outlet for Remoaner grief. For a pro Trump petition to get almost 100 000 signatures in less than 24 hours with virtually no publicity until now and in the face of relentlessly anti Trump headlines from the UK media is not something to be dismissed lightlySouthamObserver said:
But in every constituency - it seems - far more people have signed the petition about Trump not getting a state visit.Casino_Royale said:
The signature map for that is ever so slightly different from the Other One.David_Evershed said:Petition in favour of Trump state visit at
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844
95,000 so far.0 -
The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.0
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The US is a big market, for sure, but for its companies to grow and to offer secure, high-paying jobs it needs the rest of the world - in particular, Europe and Asia - to export to. What is interesting about Trump is that he may end up isolating his own country while pushing Asia and Europe closer together. For the UK, with an imaginative post-Brexit immigration policy, there are also potentially exciting opportunities to attract technology expertise that feels uncomfortable in an increasingly illiberal US, as well as to build the talent-base of our best universities. This would deliver immense benefits, but would mean creating distance with the Trump regime and also an acceptance that immigration cannot be reduced to the tens of thousands. So expect Canada to benefit instead.Pong said:
We could be about to find out if the world needs the US as much as the US thinks it does.Richard_Nabavi said:Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.
There's a good explanation here:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html
The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.
A big moment.
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Not watching; what's he saying?
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As I've said all along, MPs are using the SC decision as a means to prevent triggering article 50 and reverse/ignore the result of the refendum0
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@JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK0
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Well worth signing! The anti Trump Demo should be magnificent. I am keen to wave my Mexican flag, and donate some bricks for his wall, by special airborne delivery system!.HYUFD said:
That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debateGeoffM said:100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844
"Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"0 -
Not following directly as at work but wasn't the Iraq vote a 3-line whip for the Cons to support the Lab govt (not that Clarke did, but then 'forced' only works in that context if you take it to mean 'pressured')?TOPPING said:Good point, Ken.
Never been forced to vote with the government, when in opposition.
That's the crux.0 -
Magnificent from Ken Clarke.0
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Ken Clarke is the embodiment of gluttonous complacency.0
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Brilliant speech. Followed by applause.TheScreamingEagles said:Magnificent from Ken Clarke.
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I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.0 -
I think his point was that, as we have rehearsed on here often, that because a vote has gone against a party, it doesn't follow that the defeated party should thereafter support the victors.david_herdson said:
Not following directly as at work but wasn't the Iraq vote a 3-line whip for the Cons to support the Lab govt (not that Clarke did, but then 'forced' only works in that context if you take it to mean 'pressured')?TOPPING said:Good point, Ken.
Never been forced to vote with the government, when in opposition.
That's the crux.0 -
To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.0 -
@NickCohen4: Kenneth Clarke now giving the children of the Commons a lesson on representative democracy0
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The SNP have been told many times by the Speaker that clapping is out of order in the HoC. Why do they keep doing it?0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
Of all the things to be grateful for in the world, that's one of them.
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Quite possibly it will, but it will simply reinforce their local irrelevance. Still, it's amusing that the Greens think that the Lib Dems - who were in government with the Conservatives less than two years ago (it seems longer) - are such natural allies as to form an electoral pact with them.NickPalmer said:Notts LibDems and Greens have agreed not to oppose each other in certain divisions in the County election. I wonder if this will be replicated elsewhere?
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He is very bitter and no doubt after his speech is virtually friendless in his own party.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
What is that saying about all political careers end in failure0 -
Do they have to consider the anti-Trump petition ten times?HYUFD said:
That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debateGeoffM said:100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844
"Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"0 -
See my post. He wouldn't compromise... And it's all been for nothing anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Also, I'm not sure he ever truly wanted to be PM. Not really.
Wasn't he once famously reported as saying that the EU would eventually mean Westminster had all the relevance of a local council debating chamber?
Not the words of a man who truly desires to be Prime Minister of the UK's sovereign Parliament.0 -
Got a feeling there's going to be a fair number of interventions by the Speaker over the next couple of days0
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His longevity is such that he was a government whip in Ted Heath's when the original bill to take us in the EC.SeanT said:
Yep. All for nothing. Everything Clarke's strived for, believed in, worked towards. Gone. Ruined. Nixed. Blown away. His whole career rendered pointless. Right at the end.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Quite a sickening blow, one imagines.0 -
No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.Richard_Nabavi said:The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.
It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.0 -
Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.HYUFD said:
Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to LabourCyclefree said:On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.
Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any building on areas within the National Park, which this proposal would since it is on the edge and highly visible within the Park and would thus ruin its setting, then it doesn't matter if Theresa May personally comes round and hands over gold bars to him. He will be voting for the Greens in this by-election.
Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.
Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.
A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.
Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.
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@steverichards14: KenClarke's speech similar to R Cook's pre Iraq- will be cited and admired when he proves to be right. All pro EU Lab MPs should be with him0
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Thank God we're now talking about the Brexit debate. That's something I never thought I'd say, but after the last couple of days...
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PClipp said:
No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.Richard_Nabavi said:The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.
" I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU. "
Shame that option doesn't exist, as the EU has made very clear.
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I don't think Mr Trump is very keen on the WTO. I think it's more likely than not that the US leaves it at some point in the next four years.Animal_pb said:
That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.Richard_Nabavi said:Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.
There's a good explanation here:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html
The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.0 -
TWAO today. short new headlines, then at least 20 minutes of TRUMP, then several minutes of populist crap about the new Dr Who.. AWFUL just AWFUL.. BBC losing the plot and its seriousness.0
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I'm not sure that advertising your willingness to break the law on a public forum is a good thing.foxinsoxuk said:
Well worth signing! The anti Trump Demo should be magnificent. I am keen to wave my Mexican flag, and donate some bricks for his wall, by special airborne delivery system!.HYUFD said:
That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debateGeoffM said:100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844
"Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"0 -
We will see but I can't see pylons saving Corbyn in Copeland given Labour defections to the Tories and the fact the Greens and LDs will equally try and exploit the issueCyclefree said:
Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.HYUFD said:
Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to LabourCyclefree said:On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.
Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any his by-election.
Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.
Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.
A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.
Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.0 -
We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Politicians really cannot win.
Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.0 -
Slackbladder: the area you speak of has a recent history of Lib Dem strength. Suspect they know what they are doing and will be able to concentrate on getting those areas back, May 2017 should be a good year for that party, gains in region of 150, 200, maybe 250, get your bets on now.0
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"Beautiful, charming, devastatingly intelligent, at last I’d got her to myself for a bit and was plying her with a bit of talk when this friend of yours barges up and says ‘Hey doll, is this guy boring you? Why don’t you talk to me instead? I’m from a different planet. a millionaire thriller writer’ I never saw her again."SeanT said:
What first attracted you to millionaire thriller writer S K Tremayne who also gets free luxury travel around the world where he's allowed to bring companions?HYUFD said:
The fact you a millionaire thriller writing anoraky politics geek with a pad in Camden no doubt helps a littleSeanT said:
I'm living proof that you can be a saddo anoraky politics geek AND have sex with loads of hot chicks. You should be encouraged by my example.Carolus_Rex said:
The mere fact that he's here means that fundamentally, he's a saddo who spends too much time on an anoracky website. Just like the rest of us.Anorak said: 0 -
He is an integral part of that democracy, donkey brain.SeanT said:
Unfortunately for Ken Clarke, the British people gave him a lesson in plebiscitary democracy, and the British people get to decide. Not him.Scott_P said:@NickCohen4: Kenneth Clarke now giving the children of the Commons a lesson on representative democracy
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Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.0 -
Fortunately, as a Conservative who supported the referendum and voted Remain, I don't need to contort myself into such LibDemish absurdities or pretend that the referendum result wasn't what it plainly was.PClipp said:
No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.Richard_Nabavi said:The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.
It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.
I very much respect Ken Clarke, but not those who supported (or pretended to support) the referendum, and who now are trying to renege on it because they don't like the result.0 -
It's a race between leaving the WTO and leaving the UN.rcs1000 said:
I don't think Mr Trump is very keen on the WTO. I think it's more likely than not that the US leaves it at some point in the next four years.Animal_pb said:
That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.Richard_Nabavi said:Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.
There's a good explanation here:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html
The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.0 -
While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)Richard_Nabavi said:The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
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I don't think he ever really wanted to be PM.JosiasJessop said:
We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Politicians really cannot win.
Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.
He said Parliament would become a local council debating chamber. He's always had a disdain for Westminster and it's MP's (especially his "fellow" Tory MP's) and the vulgarity of the party members and voters who put them there.0 -
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.0 -
Opinium and Comres have both had majorities for free movement controls over full single market membership and every poll has had Tory and UKIP voters backing hard BrexitPClipp said:
No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.Richard_Nabavi said:The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.
It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.0 -
Good point from Bill Cash. There was consensus between the 2 front benches on Europe and sovereignty therefore the only route out was via a referendum0
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No, I can't help. They seem to be all over the place. I agree that there is no rational explanation for their bizarre behaviour.SouthamObserver said:While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)
Or, if you prefer Sir Keir's terminology:
13:17 Starmer says when he campaigned in the referendum, he told people they were taking a decision. He did not say they were just expressing a view.
Labour is internationalist, he says. But above all they are democrats. So they must accept the result of the referendum, he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/31/article-50-debate-brexit-government-lying-about-how-easy-brexit-will-be-says-owen-smith-politics-live0 -
I expect Labour to win both, with a swing to Libs in both cases. UKIP don't have the org or the X Factor. Libs are too far behind, Tories are in govt. Hope I am wrong.justin124 said:
Reports on Vote UK forum suggest Labour is becoming more confident of holding Stoke.SouthamObserver said:
Stoke is the really big one. If Labour loses that to UKIP there is no hiding place. Likewise, if UKIP does not take Stoke it's hard to see how it can ever win. By contrast, a Tory win in Copeland will merely confirm what we already know: as long as Corbyn leads Labour the Tories are guaranteed a huge majority at the GE. Stoke is existential for two parties. Copeland isn't.rcs1000 said:My guess would be that the Tories take Copeland by a whisker, while Labour holds Stoke fairly easily.
I expect Labour to lose both.0 -
Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.0
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Even better than Boy George?TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
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That's a great anecdote. It's a beautiful part of the world and there will be a few people exercised by local rather than national issues, as happens in every by-election. When it's clearly going to be close, all these votes matter for every party. I'm still amazed that the Cons are odds-on to win a seat while in government.Cyclefree said:
Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.HYUFD said:
Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to LabourCyclefree said:On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.
Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any building on areas within the National Park, which this proposal would since it is on the edge and highly visible within the Park and would thus ruin its setting, then it doesn't matter if Theresa May personally comes round and hands over gold bars to him. He will be voting for the Greens in this by-election.
Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.
Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.
A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.
Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.
Lab are pretty much 2/1 now which is bonkers to hold their own seat.
By the way, is it only me abroad or has Betfair switched to $ from £?0 -
AmenJosiasJessop said:
We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Politicians really cannot win.
Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.0 -
Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK
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In some parts of the world (here) it can end you up in jail.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, speaking not from experience, sleeping with other married women gets you into trouble.Richard_Nabavi said:
And, more to the point, she's a married woman!TheScreamingEagles said:
Have a cold shower, you're a married man.Casino_Royale said:I want to do things to Nusrat Ghani that'd make SeanT blush.
So instead of a pissed off wife at home to deal with, you've got a pissed off cuckolded husband to deal with as well.
If you're ever going to have an affair, have it with a woman who is single.0 -
Yes.GIN1138 said:
Even better than Boy George?TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.0 -
His biggest failing was leaving such a good legacy for his successor that Brown was able to hide his incompetence for so long.TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.0 -
Is that really a good idea - wouldn't it just me that a company like Apple would move offshore entirely, otherwise they'd be making a loss on every phone sold in the US ?Animal_pb said:
That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.Richard_Nabavi said:Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.
There's a good explanation here:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html
The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.
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Go Ken, rage against that good night.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK
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Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I can't help. They seem to be all over the place. I agree that there is no rational explanation for their bizarre behaviour.SouthamObserver said:While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)
Or, if you prefer Sir Keir's terminology:
13:17 Starmer says when he campaigned in the referendum, he told people they were taking a decision. He did not say they were just expressing a view.
Labour is internationalist, he says. But above all they are democrats. So they must accept the result of the referendum, he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/31/article-50-debate-brexit-government-lying-about-how-easy-brexit-will-be-says-owen-smith-politics-live
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And was wonderfully dismissive of sentiment. I remember a brilliant interview he gave when some MP was doing the full-on 'they are shutting our local hospital' rant, and he just batted it off with 'I've shut more hospitals than you've had hot dinners'.TheScreamingEagles said:Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.
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Another FSB officer has been arrested for treason for working with the CIA.0
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SouthamObserver said:
Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK
The problem is that Clarke is trying to re-argue the referendum, but the decision has been made and he should honour it.
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Re 1.) - no probably Lawson. Not clear he was manifestly superior to Howe, did a reasonable clean up job in the mid 1990s.TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.
Re 2.) - unquantified fluff. He sat there and projected gravitas, but major achievements?
Re 3.) - and?
Re 4.) - you could describe Cherie Booth as an eminent QC. That's not particularly distinguished company.
Ken was plausible, and oozed "bottom". I agree, he had the potential for great things; it was not realised.0 -
Claims that Lord Coe misled an MPs' inquiry have grown after new emails confirmed he was "made aware" of corruption allegations in his sport four months before they became public.0
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Agreed and he was true to his beliefs. I do not agree with him on Brexit but I defend his right to be true to himselfTheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.0 -
Sure, I get that. And if that's their view, I respect that - provided they didn't vote for the referendum. It's the combination which is barmy.SouthamObserver said:Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.
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The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.0
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Or when he said of striking ambulance driversRichard_Nabavi said:
And was wonderfully dismissive of sentiment. I remember a brilliant interview he gave when some MP was doing the full-on 'they are shutting our local hospital' rant, and he just batted it off with 'I've shut more hospitals than you've had hot dinners'.TheScreamingEagles said:Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.
They are professional van drivers, a worthwhile job, but not an exceptional one0 -
There's a distinct problem when you meet a woman and start dating, only to find out later that she's married.AlsoIndigo said:
In some parts of the world (here) it can end you up in jail.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, speaking not from experience, sleeping with other married women gets you into trouble.Richard_Nabavi said:
And, more to the point, she's a married woman!TheScreamingEagles said:
Have a cold shower, you're a married man.Casino_Royale said:I want to do things to Nusrat Ghani that'd make SeanT blush.
So instead of a pissed off wife at home to deal with, you've got a pissed off cuckolded husband to deal with as well.
If you're ever going to have an affair, have it with a woman who is single.
I'm not speaking from experience, twice, obviously ...
But that's all well in the past. I sometimes feel that I'm the only man on PB perfectly happy with just one woman. Especially as that woman also happens to be my wife... 0 -
OMG, I'm actually listening with some agreement to one of the Benn dynasty0
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Voting for an advisory election but then deciding not to take the advice is perfectly rational. Politically it is barmy, but that is something altogether different.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, I get that. And if that's their view, I respect that - provided they didn't vote for the referendum. It's the combination which is barmy.SouthamObserver said:Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.
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There's plenty of life (and boozy lunches) left in the old fella yet.Carolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next electionCarolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even parliamentary by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.0
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.. and not a spy either.TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.0 -
Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next electionCarolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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Notice Sky are showing the counter e petition re the state visit with the count rising while on the screen. Now over 107,0000
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He went to Cambridge so you still can't rule that out.SquareRoot said:.. and not a spy either.
TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.0 -
Does the lord's need yet another europhile lefty? ...I'm kidding, I'm kidding. I actually like ken Clarke because he stands for what he believes.GIN1138 said:
Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next electionCarolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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I think that Mike does differentiate, we always know what the data he is using is based on.Jason said:I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.
There's only a limited amount of data available and it would be silly to ignore data from By Elections and Council Elections. They are at least real votes cast by real people rather than a clicked answer in an online poll. They can tell us which way opinion is going.
Caveta Emptor, but keep giving us the data.0 -
A political obituary, certainly.Carolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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I hope so, Ken Clarke has certainly earned his ermine.GIN1138 said:
Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next electionCarolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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Good afternoon, everyone.0
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0
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So did Reinhard Heydrich. I wouldn't want either of them round for dinner.FrancisUrquhart said:
Does the lord's need yet another europhile lefty? ...I'm kidding, I'm kidding. I actually like ken Clarke because he stands for what he believes.GIN1138 said:
Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next electionCarolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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He has not always been polite. I remember him being very rude as Chancellor in the mid-90s to the LibDem Alan Beith.JosiasJessop said:
We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Politicians really cannot win.
Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.0 -
He's making a good advert for MP term limits.GeoffM said:
A political obituary, certainly.Carolus_Rex said:The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
Edit: Although, to be fair, he's never hidden his love of all things EU, as opposed to others today who supported a referendum last year but now don't support implementing the result of it.0 -
I agree with that.SeanT said:
Total bollocks. And idiotic bollocks, at that.Scott_P said:@steverichards14: KenClarke's speech similar to R Cook's pre Iraq- will be cited and admired when he proves to be right. All pro EU Lab MPs should be with him
Brexit is completely different to Iraq, by an order. He's made a category error.
With Iraq you could point to lots of consequences which sprang directly from the war, or were directly related to the war: the chaos in the country, the insurrection, the deaths, the rise of ISIS, the lack of WMDs, etc etc etc. These were so bad most people were able to agree that Iraq was a grave error.
Brexit is entirely different and much more complex. It is a geopolitical rupture that is inherently dynamic and unpredictable, and there will be no right or wrong conclusion on which everyone will agree. If growth is slower Leavers will blame Trump or the EU, if growth is better than expected Remainers will say it would have been better still inside the EU.
None of us, on either side, will ever be able to point at the other and say: Told you so.0 -
If Britain had never been an EU member, I think Ken Clarke would have become Tory leader and PM.0
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Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.0 -
My ticker tape has gone quiet, - has the Commons debate on the European Union finished?0
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Has Clegg gone finally stark mad.0
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Afternoon all
So we've now reached democracy by petition - well, it had to happen. I can't "appose" the Trump visit (whatever that means) and have 110,000 people really signed it without noticing the typo ? Just goes to show.
Both petitions are ludicrous and bear witness to the echo chamber. One side shouts, the other side has to shout louder.
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Quite common amongst those unwilling to compromise when they have minority views, I should expect.SeanT said:
Yep. All for nothing. Everything Clarke's strived for, believed in, worked towards. Gone. Ruined. Nixed. Blown away. His whole career rendered pointless. Right at the end.GIN1138 said:
I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice
Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
Quite a sickening blow, one imagines.
He ought to have retired a long time ago - or formed a party in which his fixed views on Europe could be catered for.0 -
Or if Thatcher's defenestration hadn't poisoned the Tory party in the 90s.Casino_Royale said:If Britain had never been an EU member, I think Ken Clarke would have become Tory leader and PM.
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They can tell us which way opinion is going - in local council by-elections, not in national polling. If there was a correlation between the two, the Tories would surely be romping home in every single council election. And the Liberals would be polling 25% nationally instead of 12%. We've been here before when opposition parties have done well in local elections and then got walloped in a general election. The serious business of choosing a national governement is completely different.logical_song said:
I think that Mike does differentiate, we always know what the data he is using is based on.Jason said:I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.
There's only a limited amount of data available and it would be silly to ignore data from By Elections and Council Elections. They are at least real votes cast by real people rather than a clicked answer in an online poll. They can tell us which way opinion is going.
Caveta Emptor, but keep giving us the data.0 -
Not quite right: there was consensus between the two front benches on Europe despite the fact that a solid 30% of the electorate supported withdrawal, therefore we had a referendum.Blue_rog said:Good point from Bill Cash. There was consensus between the 2 front benches on Europe and sovereignty therefore the only route out was via a referendum
There were two key parties in that: the anti-federalist league (forerunner of UKIP) and the Tory rebels (incubating since Bruges in 1988) and without either it wouldn't have happened.0 -
Clegg; ignore older people, they'll all be dead soon.0
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IDS was the best of a fairly poor choice.logical_song said:
Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.Animal_pb said:
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?TheScreamingEagles said:To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.
There ain't no justice in the world.
Superb Justice Secretary.
President of the Cambridge Union.
Eminent QC
For starters.
Ken could never have been trusted, we would have been bounced in to the €.
0
