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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    SeanT said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    He's at it again

    Donald J Trump
    When will the Democrats give us our Attorney General and rest of Cabinet! They should be ashamed of themselves! No wonder D.C. doesn't work!

    I remember that the first year of Obama's presidency, he sounded half-candidate and half-senator. Trump is still sounding half-candidate and half-TV personality.

    I'm still trying to work out if he's genuinely got no idea how politics works or whether he's five moves ahead of everyone.
    I think he's both, the reason he's sometimes five moves ahead of everyone else is because he's approaching politics in a totally different way, his own way, with his own rules, and this is because he doesn't know or care how normal politics works.

    Hence the sometimes horrific blunders, which he shrugs off, and the weirdly clever moves, which blindside everyone else
    Yes, I'd agree with that. Though it'll almost certainly end badly if he doesn't care (and I don't think he does, though that might just be show) unless he can keep a lot of the public onside. If he can do that, the other politicos will be terrified that their own position is under threat from a force they don't understand and will run with him for fear of the alternative; if he can't, they'll eat him.
    So why did both the Republicans and Democrats put up such dreadful candidates in their primaries?

    And, no, I don't think Sanders would have been any better. Rubio came across as the best of the worst, but was clearly inexperienced and a bit robotic.

    A nation of 300m. Trump and Hillary were it.

    Jesus.
    Clarence Darrow: When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President. I’m beginning to believe it.
    As long as they have a hundred million behind them.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    These days it's called polyamory, darling. It's quite the thing amongst us young sexy people.

    It's certainly a great way to screw people up emotionally.
    I can't work out whether Sean is a narcissistic solipsist, or solipsistic narcissist.
    The mere fact that he's here means that fundamentally, he's a saddo who spends too much time on an anoracky website. Just like the rest of us.
    I'm living proof that you can be a saddo anoraky politics geek AND have sex with loads of hot chicks. You should be encouraged by my example.
    The fact you a millionaire thriller writing anoraky politics geek with a pad in Camden no doubt helps a little
    What first attracted you to millionaire thriller writer S K Tremayne who also gets free luxury travel around the world where he's allowed to bring companions?
    Quite, to misquote Mrs Merton
    Gotta play to your strengths.

    ... that said, there are quite a few young women who simply *like* older guys. A happy discovery.
    Indeed as Sugardaddys.com shows
    Just don't go to prisonbabes.com

    (fx: checks)

    Darned, it no longer exists. Twenty-odd years ago when I was doing Internet stuff, there was an American website that allowed you to correspond with women in American prisons. A customer complained it was not loading properly, so we all had a look. ;)

    One fairly attractive woman was in for life, for murder. Her marital status was 'widowed'.

    It did not take much to connect the dots on that case ...
    May be literally taking your life in your hands there...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited January 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Petition in favour of Trump state visit at

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844

    95,000 so far.

    The signature map for that is ever so slightly different from the Other One.

    But in every constituency - it seems - far more people have signed the petition about Trump not getting a state visit.

    Because it has been up longer and trumpeted by every news outlet going for 2 days and been used as another outlet for Remoaner grief. For a pro Trump petition to get almost 100 000 signatures in less than 24 hours with virtually no publicity until now and in the face of relentlessly anti Trump headlines from the UK media is not something to be dismissed lightly

    Hmmm - the no state visit petition only started to get coverage as a result of the signatures it had got.

    Which nicely coordinated with the protests in pro Remain cities, they are now not going to get it all their own way
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    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.
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    Pong said:

    Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.

    There's a good explanation here:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html

    The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.

    We could be about to find out if the world needs the US as much as the US thinks it does.

    A big moment.

    The US is a big market, for sure, but for its companies to grow and to offer secure, high-paying jobs it needs the rest of the world - in particular, Europe and Asia - to export to. What is interesting about Trump is that he may end up isolating his own country while pushing Asia and Europe closer together. For the UK, with an imaginative post-Brexit immigration policy, there are also potentially exciting opportunities to attract technology expertise that feels uncomfortable in an increasingly illiberal US, as well as to build the talent-base of our best universities. This would deliver immense benefits, but would mean creating distance with the Trump regime and also an acceptance that immigration cannot be reduced to the tens of thousands. So expect Canada to benefit instead.

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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice


    Not watching; what's he saying?

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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    As I've said all along, MPs are using the SC decision as a means to prevent triggering article 50 and reverse/ignore the result of the refendum
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844

    "Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"

    That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debate
    Well worth signing! The anti Trump Demo should be magnificent. I am keen to wave my Mexican flag, and donate some bricks for his wall, by special airborne delivery system!.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TOPPING said:

    Good point, Ken.

    Never been forced to vote with the government, when in opposition.

    That's the crux.

    Not following directly as at work but wasn't the Iraq vote a 3-line whip for the Cons to support the Lab govt (not that Clarke did, but then 'forced' only works in that context if you take it to mean 'pressured')?
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    Magnificent from Ken Clarke.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited January 2017
    Ken Clarke is the embodiment of gluttonous complacency.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    Magnificent from Ken Clarke.

    Brilliant speech. Followed by applause.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited January 2017

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    TOPPING said:

    Good point, Ken.

    Never been forced to vote with the government, when in opposition.

    That's the crux.

    Not following directly as at work but wasn't the Iraq vote a 3-line whip for the Cons to support the Lab govt (not that Clarke did, but then 'forced' only works in that context if you take it to mean 'pressured')?
    I think his point was that, as we have rehearsed on here often, that because a vote has gone against a party, it doesn't follow that the defeated party should thereafter support the victors.
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    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NickCohen4: Kenneth Clarke now giving the children of the Commons a lesson on representative democracy
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The SNP have been told many times by the Speaker that clapping is out of order in the HoC. Why do they keep doing it?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.


    Of all the things to be grateful for in the world, that's one of them.


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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Notts LibDems and Greens have agreed not to oppose each other in certain divisions in the County election. I wonder if this will be replicated elsewhere?

    Quite possibly it will, but it will simply reinforce their local irrelevance. Still, it's amusing that the Greens think that the Lib Dems - who were in government with the Conservatives less than two years ago (it seems longer) - are such natural allies as to form an electoral pact with them.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    He is very bitter and no doubt after his speech is virtually friendless in his own party.

    What is that saying about all political careers end in failure
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844

    "Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"

    That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debate
    Do they have to consider the anti-Trump petition ten times?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited January 2017

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    See my post. He wouldn't compromise... And it's all been for nothing anyway.

    Also, I'm not sure he ever truly wanted to be PM. Not really.

    Wasn't he once famously reported as saying that the EU would eventually mean Westminster had all the relevance of a local council debating chamber?

    Not the words of a man who truly desires to be Prime Minister of the UK's sovereign Parliament.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Got a feeling there's going to be a fair number of interventions by the Speaker over the next couple of days
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    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    Yep. All for nothing. Everything Clarke's strived for, believed in, worked towards. Gone. Ruined. Nixed. Blown away. His whole career rendered pointless. Right at the end.

    Quite a sickening blow, one imagines.
    His longevity is such that he was a government whip in Ted Heath's when the original bill to take us in the EC.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited January 2017

    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.

    No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.

    If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.

    It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.

    Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any building on areas within the National Park, which this proposal would since it is on the edge and highly visible within the Park and would thus ruin its setting, then it doesn't matter if Theresa May personally comes round and hands over gold bars to him. He will be voting for the Greens in this by-election.

    Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.

    Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.

    Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to Labour
    Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.

    A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.

    Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steverichards14: KenClarke's speech similar to R Cook's pre Iraq- will be cited and admired when he proves to be right. All pro EU Lab MPs should be with him
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    edited January 2017
    Thank God we're now talking about the Brexit debate. That's something I never thought I'd say, but after the last couple of days... :open_mouth:
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    PClipp said:

    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.

    No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.

    If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.

    " I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU. "

    Shame that option doesn't exist, as the EU has made very clear.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Animal_pb said:

    Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.

    There's a good explanation here:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html

    The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.

    That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.
    I don't think Mr Trump is very keen on the WTO. I think it's more likely than not that the US leaves it at some point in the next four years.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2017
    TWAO today. short new headlines, then at least 20 minutes of TRUMP, then several minutes of populist crap about the new Dr Who.. AWFUL just AWFUL.. BBC losing the plot and its seriousness.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    100,000 signatures reached! (inlcuding mine)

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844

    "Donald Trump should make a State Visit to the United Kingdom"

    That means Parliament has to now consider it in a debate
    Well worth signing! The anti Trump Demo should be magnificent. I am keen to wave my Mexican flag, and donate some bricks for his wall, by special airborne delivery system!.
    I'm not sure that advertising your willingness to break the law on a public forum is a good thing.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.

    Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any his by-election.

    Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.

    Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.

    Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to Labour
    Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.

    A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.

    Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.

    We will see but I can't see pylons saving Corbyn in Copeland given Labour defections to the Tories and the fact the Greens and LDs will equally try and exploit the issue
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.

    Politicians really cannot win.

    Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Slackbladder: the area you speak of has a recent history of Lib Dem strength. Suspect they know what they are doing and will be able to concentrate on getting those areas back, May 2017 should be a good year for that party, gains in region of 150, 200, maybe 250, get your bets on now.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    These days it's called polyamory, darling. It's quite the thing amongst us young sexy people.

    It's certainly a great way to screw people up emotionally.
    I can't work out whether Sean is a narcissistic solipsist, or solipsistic narcissist.
    The mere fact that he's here means that fundamentally, he's a saddo who spends too much time on an anoracky website. Just like the rest of us.
    I'm living proof that you can be a saddo anoraky politics geek AND have sex with loads of hot chicks. You should be encouraged by my example.
    The fact you a millionaire thriller writing anoraky politics geek with a pad in Camden no doubt helps a little
    What first attracted you to millionaire thriller writer S K Tremayne who also gets free luxury travel around the world where he's allowed to bring companions?
    "Beautiful, charming, devastatingly intelligent, at last I’d got her to myself for a bit and was plying her with a bit of talk when this friend of yours barges up and says ‘Hey doll, is this guy boring you? Why don’t you talk to me instead? I’m from a different planet. a millionaire thriller writer’ I never saw her again."

    ;)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NickCohen4: Kenneth Clarke now giving the children of the Commons a lesson on representative democracy

    Unfortunately for Ken Clarke, the British people gave him a lesson in plebiscitary democracy, and the British people get to decide. Not him.
    He is an integral part of that democracy, donkey brain.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017
    PClipp said:

    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.

    No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.

    If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.

    It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.
    Fortunately, as a Conservative who supported the referendum and voted Remain, I don't need to contort myself into such LibDemish absurdities or pretend that the referendum result wasn't what it plainly was.

    I very much respect Ken Clarke, but not those who supported (or pretended to support) the referendum, and who now are trying to renege on it because they don't like the result.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.

    There's a good explanation here:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html

    The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.

    That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.
    I don't think Mr Trump is very keen on the WTO. I think it's more likely than not that the US leaves it at some point in the next four years.
    It's a race between leaving the WTO and leaving the UN.
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    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.

    While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited January 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.

    Politicians really cannot win.

    Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.
    I don't think he ever really wanted to be PM.

    He said Parliament would become a local council debating chamber. He's always had a disdain for Westminster and it's MP's (especially his "fellow" Tory MP's) and the vulgarity of the party members and voters who put them there.
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    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited January 2017
    PClipp said:

    The difference between Ken Clarke and those Labour MPs who plan to vote against Article 50 is that he didn't (I believe) vote for the referendum. So he has been completely consistent, unlike those who voted for the referendum and are now trying to scupper the decision taken in the referendum.

    No real decision was taken in the Referendum, Mr Navabi. Th number of people who voted for a "Hard Brexit", as is now being implemented by Mrs May, following the UKIP agenda, must have been vanishingly small.

    If you combine all those who voted for Remain and add in all those who voted for Leave, but really thinking of a Soft Brexit, plus those who voted Leave because Cameron did such a pathetic job of renegotiating the terms, I think you have the vast majority in favour of remaining within a reformed EU.

    It is a disgrace that the hard-line Conservatives do not put British interests first, when British interests clearly start with having a strong economy.
    Opinium and Comres have both had majorities for free movement controls over full single market membership and every poll has had Tory and UKIP voters backing hard Brexit
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Good point from Bill Cash. There was consensus between the 2 front benches on Europe and sovereignty therefore the only route out was via a referendum
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017

    While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)

    No, I can't help. They seem to be all over the place. I agree that there is no rational explanation for their bizarre behaviour.

    Or, if you prefer Sir Keir's terminology:

    13:17 Starmer says when he campaigned in the referendum, he told people they were taking a decision. He did not say they were just expressing a view.

    Labour is internationalist, he says. But above all they are democrats. So they must accept the result of the referendum, he says.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/31/article-50-debate-brexit-government-lying-about-how-easy-brexit-will-be-says-owen-smith-politics-live
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My guess would be that the Tories take Copeland by a whisker, while Labour holds Stoke fairly easily.

    Stoke is the really big one. If Labour loses that to UKIP there is no hiding place. Likewise, if UKIP does not take Stoke it's hard to see how it can ever win. By contrast, a Tory win in Copeland will merely confirm what we already know: as long as Corbyn leads Labour the Tories are guaranteed a huge majority at the GE. Stoke is existential for two parties. Copeland isn't.

    I expect Labour to lose both.

    Reports on Vote UK forum suggest Labour is becoming more confident of holding Stoke.
    I expect Labour to win both, with a swing to Libs in both cases. UKIP don't have the org or the X Factor. Libs are too far behind, Tories are in govt. Hope I am wrong.
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    Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Even better than Boy George? :open_mouth:

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: my other half is a voter in the Copeland by-election. More than Brexit he is exercised by the National Grid's proposals to build gigantic pylons across the Duddon Estuary on the edge of the Lake District National Park.

    Unless the Tories - specifically the Energy Minister - are prepared to explain to the National Grid that the relevant guidance - which required the Grid to take account of the effect of any building on areas within the National Park, which this proposal would since it is on the edge and highly visible within the Park and would thus ruin its setting, then it doesn't matter if Theresa May personally comes round and hands over gold bars to him. He will be voting for the Greens in this by-election.

    Not desecrating a beautiful area (and the alternative is putting the pylons underground as they are proposing to do along the rest of the route) is far more important to him than Brexit.

    Given how small Labour's majority was and given how many people in the affected area are up in arms about this proposal, this could make the difference between the Tories winning or not this seat.

    Having phoned in Copeland that issue was not raised once, Brexit was. Richmond was supposed to back Zac on Heathrow it ended up dumping him on Brexit. We will see but I can't see pylons dominating the major issue of the age and of course a vote for the Greens is no use to Labour
    Pylons are only an issue in a relatively small southern part of the constituency which is affected by it. But the majority is not large.

    A vote for the Greens may not help Labour but as my husband would not have voted Labour with Corbyn in charge and is not voting Tory it is why I think it less likely than not that the Tories will win.

    Anyway it's just an anecdote and having returned from a weekend's walking in Keswick and some time in Millom I thought I'd share it.
    That's a great anecdote. It's a beautiful part of the world and there will be a few people exercised by local rather than national issues, as happens in every by-election. When it's clearly going to be close, all these votes matter for every party. I'm still amazed that the Cons are odds-on to win a seat while in government.

    Lab are pretty much 2/1 now which is bonkers to hold their own seat.

    By the way, is it only me abroad or has Betfair switched to $ from £?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723

    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.

    Politicians really cannot win.

    Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.
    Amen
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    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK

    Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    None of us, on either side, will ever be able to point at the other and say: Told you so.

    Hold that thought...
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    I want to do things to Nusrat Ghani that'd make SeanT blush.

    Have a cold shower, you're a married man.
    And, more to the point, she's a married woman!
    Indeed, speaking not from experience, sleeping with other married women gets you into trouble.

    So instead of a pissed off wife at home to deal with, you've got a pissed off cuckolded husband to deal with as well.

    If you're ever going to have an affair, have it with a woman who is single.
    In some parts of the world (here) it can end you up in jail.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Even better than Boy George? :open_mouth:

    Yes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.
    His biggest failing was leaving such a good legacy for his successor that Brown was able to hide his incompetence for so long.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731
    Animal_pb said:

    Given that President Trump seems, to the surprise of many, to be set on doing what he said he would do, I think that we have to assume that changes to corporate taxation to encourage US companies to re-shore manufacturing are very much on the cards. In practice, that might well mean the "border-adjusted" corporate tax proposal put forward by some Republican congressmen. The effect would be similar to imposing a 20%+ tariff on imports, without actually being a tariff as such.

    There's a good explanation here:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/tax-changes-taxing-imports-plan-has-chance-of-passing.html

    The international ramifications of such a change to the US tax system would be immense. For a start, it would probably mean a US-UK trade deal would be of little help to us. It could also trigger a worldwide trade war, with the EU and other countries similarly putting up protectionist barriers.

    That's going to take a while, and may run into WTO issues; interesting, though. Far more interesting are the proposals to force US companies to on-shore manufacturing by removing tax allowability of production costs of items sold in the US but produced overseas. That could be done quickly, and without recourse to any international bodies.
    Is that really a good idea - wouldn't it just me that a company like Apple would move offshore entirely, otherwise they'd be making a loss on every phone sold in the US ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK

    Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.

    Go Ken, rage against that good night.
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    While it goes without saying that Labour MPs are as a class venal, hypocritical, self-interested phonies who hold the British people generally and their constituents specifically in total contempt, and who would sell this country down the river given any opportunity, I am not sure what those opposing the A50 trigger gain by voting against a popular measure that is going to pass - especially as by doing so they make it more likely they will lose their seats at the next general election. Clearly, there must be some kind of wicked ulterior motive as it is impossible for them merely to be doing what they believe is right, but I just can't see what it is. Can you help? :-)

    No, I can't help. They seem to be all over the place. I agree that there is no rational explanation for their bizarre behaviour.

    Or, if you prefer Sir Keir's terminology:

    13:17 Starmer says when he campaigned in the referendum, he told people they were taking a decision. He did not say they were just expressing a view.

    Labour is internationalist, he says. But above all they are democrats. So they must accept the result of the referendum, he says.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/31/article-50-debate-brexit-government-lying-about-how-easy-brexit-will-be-says-owen-smith-politics-live

    Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.

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    Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.

    And was wonderfully dismissive of sentiment. I remember a brilliant interview he gave when some MP was doing the full-on 'they are shutting our local hospital' rant, and he just batted it off with 'I've shut more hospitals than you've had hot dinners'.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Another FSB officer has been arrested for treason for working with the CIA.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Tories fuming as Ken Clarke mocks "down the rabbit hole" delusion that "nice men like President Trump" will lavish trade advantages on UK

    Yes, the Tory Brexit Trump delusion is really quite something.


    The problem is that Clarke is trying to re-argue the referendum, but the decision has been made and he should honour it.

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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
    Re 1.) - no probably Lawson. Not clear he was manifestly superior to Howe, did a reasonable clean up job in the mid 1990s.

    Re 2.) - unquantified fluff. He sat there and projected gravitas, but major achievements?

    Re 3.) - and?

    Re 4.) - you could describe Cherie Booth as an eminent QC. That's not particularly distinguished company.

    Ken was plausible, and oozed "bottom". I agree, he had the potential for great things; it was not realised.
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    Claims that Lord Coe misled an MPs' inquiry have grown after new emails confirmed he was "made aware" of corruption allegations in his sport four months before they became public.
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    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
    Agreed and he was true to his beliefs. I do not agree with him on Brexit but I defend his right to be true to himself
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017

    Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.

    Sure, I get that. And if that's their view, I respect that - provided they didn't vote for the referendum. It's the combination which is barmy.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.
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    Ken Clarke did magnificent work on the NHS to reform it.

    And was wonderfully dismissive of sentiment. I remember a brilliant interview he gave when some MP was doing the full-on 'they are shutting our local hospital' rant, and he just batted it off with 'I've shut more hospitals than you've had hot dinners'.
    Or when he said of striking ambulance drivers

    They are professional van drivers, a worthwhile job, but not an exceptional one
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    I want to do things to Nusrat Ghani that'd make SeanT blush.

    Have a cold shower, you're a married man.
    And, more to the point, she's a married woman!
    Indeed, speaking not from experience, sleeping with other married women gets you into trouble.

    So instead of a pissed off wife at home to deal with, you've got a pissed off cuckolded husband to deal with as well.

    If you're ever going to have an affair, have it with a woman who is single.
    In some parts of the world (here) it can end you up in jail.
    There's a distinct problem when you meet a woman and start dating, only to find out later that she's married.

    I'm not speaking from experience, twice, obviously ...

    But that's all well in the past. I sometimes feel that I'm the only man on PB perfectly happy with just one woman. Especially as that woman also happens to be my wife... ;)
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    OMG, I'm actually listening with some agreement to one of the Benn dynasty
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    Yep, I agree with him. I also accept that some Labour MPs don't. My guess is that they believe that Brexit is a bad idea and because of that will not vote to trigger it, knowing that in doing so they could well lose their seats at the next general election.

    Sure, I get that. And if that's their view, I respect that - provided they didn't vote for the referendum. It's the combination which is barmy.

    Voting for an advisory election but then deciding not to take the advice is perfectly rational. Politically it is barmy, but that is something altogether different.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    There's plenty of life (and boozy lunches) left in the old fella yet. :smiley:
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    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next election
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited January 2017
    I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even parliamentary by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    .. and not a spy either.

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited January 2017

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next election
    Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,340
    edited January 2017
    Notice Sky are showing the counter e petition re the state visit with the count rising while on the screen. Now over 107,000
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    .. and not a spy either.

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
    He went to Cambridge so you still can't rule that out.
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    GIN1138 said:

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next election
    Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?
    Does the lord's need yet another europhile lefty? ...I'm kidding, I'm kidding. I actually like ken Clarke because he stands for what he believes.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    Jason said:

    I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.

    I think that Mike does differentiate, we always know what the data he is using is based on.
    There's only a limited amount of data available and it would be silly to ignore data from By Elections and Council Elections. They are at least real votes cast by real people rather than a clicked answer in an online poll. They can tell us which way opinion is going.
    Caveta Emptor, but keep giving us the data.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    A political obituary, certainly.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next election
    Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?
    I hope so, Ken Clarke has certainly earned his ermine.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A counter-petition has been launched:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GIN1138 said:

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    I think it is the end of his career as he is standing down at the next election
    Off to Westminster's professional retirement home, The House Of Lords, though surely?
    Does the lord's need yet another europhile lefty? ...I'm kidding, I'm kidding. I actually like ken Clarke because he stands for what he believes.
    So did Reinhard Heydrich. I wouldn't want either of them round for dinner.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    We frequently accuse politicians who constantly compromise of having no values; no beliefs. Yet when we have a politician who refuses to compromise his beliefs, someone says that he should have compromised them to get to the top job.

    Politicians really cannot win.

    Ken Clarke has always been a giant. He's one of these annoying politicians who can make a point based in facts, and even when he's passionate he always remains polite. We need more like him, even if we disagree with some of their positions.
    He has not always been polite. I remember him being very rude as Chancellor in the mid-90s to the LibDem Alan Beith.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    edited January 2017
    GeoffM said:

    The comments about Ken Clarke are starting to read like an obituary.

    A political obituary, certainly.
    He's making a good advert for MP term limits.

    Edit: Although, to be fair, he's never hidden his love of all things EU, as opposed to others today who supported a referendum last year but now don't support implementing the result of it.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @steverichards14: KenClarke's speech similar to R Cook's pre Iraq- will be cited and admired when he proves to be right. All pro EU Lab MPs should be with him

    Total bollocks. And idiotic bollocks, at that.

    Brexit is completely different to Iraq, by an order. He's made a category error.

    With Iraq you could point to lots of consequences which sprang directly from the war, or were directly related to the war: the chaos in the country, the insurrection, the deaths, the rise of ISIS, the lack of WMDs, etc etc etc. These were so bad most people were able to agree that Iraq was a grave error.

    Brexit is entirely different and much more complex. It is a geopolitical rupture that is inherently dynamic and unpredictable, and there will be no right or wrong conclusion on which everyone will agree. If growth is slower Leavers will blame Trump or the EU, if growth is better than expected Remainers will say it would have been better still inside the EU.

    None of us, on either side, will ever be able to point at the other and say: Told you so.
    I agree with that.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,450
    If Britain had never been an EU member, I think Ken Clarke would have become Tory leader and PM.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723

    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
    Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    My ticker tape has gone quiet, - has the Commons debate on the European Union finished?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Has Clegg gone finally stark mad.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877
    Afternoon all :)

    So we've now reached democracy by petition - well, it had to happen. I can't "appose" the Trump visit (whatever that means) and have 110,000 people really signed it without noticing the typo ? Just goes to show.

    Both petitions are ludicrous and bear witness to the echo chamber. One side shouts, the other side has to shout louder.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ken going very red in the face and losing his voice

    I feel a bit sorry for Ken. His entire life's work is in tatters. He could have served as a very successful UK Prime Minister but wouldn't compromise on his passion for the EU... And now, because of those useless Posh Boys who he never liked in the first place, it's all been for nothing.

    Must be hard for Clarke and Hezza to bear it.
    Yep. All for nothing. Everything Clarke's strived for, believed in, worked towards. Gone. Ruined. Nixed. Blown away. His whole career rendered pointless. Right at the end.

    Quite a sickening blow, one imagines.
    Quite common amongst those unwilling to compromise when they have minority views, I should expect.

    He ought to have retired a long time ago - or formed a party in which his fixed views on Europe could be catered for.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101

    If Britain had never been an EU member, I think Ken Clarke would have become Tory leader and PM.

    Or if Thatcher's defenestration hadn't poisoned the Tory party in the 90s.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    I do wish political commentators, pundits, and bloggers (including Mike smithson) would differentiate between national polling figures based on general elections and inconsequential local council by-elections with turnouts hovering around 25%. People have wildly differening reasons for voting in local elections than when they are choosing a national government, but that simple principle seems lost to many. Even by-elections are not a very reliable indicator of anything else but a single, one-off election where nothing changes nationally.

    I think that Mike does differentiate, we always know what the data he is using is based on.
    There's only a limited amount of data available and it would be silly to ignore data from By Elections and Council Elections. They are at least real votes cast by real people rather than a clicked answer in an online poll. They can tell us which way opinion is going.
    Caveta Emptor, but keep giving us the data.
    They can tell us which way opinion is going - in local council by-elections, not in national polling. If there was a correlation between the two, the Tories would surely be romping home in every single council election. And the Liberals would be polling 25% nationally instead of 12%. We've been here before when opposition parties have done well in local elections and then got walloped in a general election. The serious business of choosing a national governement is completely different.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,450
    Blue_rog said:

    Good point from Bill Cash. There was consensus between the 2 front benches on Europe and sovereignty therefore the only route out was via a referendum

    Not quite right: there was consensus between the two front benches on Europe despite the fact that a solid 30% of the electorate supported withdrawal, therefore we had a referendum.

    There were two key parties in that: the anti-federalist league (forerunner of UKIP) and the Tory rebels (incubating since Bruges in 1988) and without either it wouldn't have happened.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Clegg; ignore older people, they'll all be dead soon.
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    Animal_pb said:

    To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

    There ain't no justice in the world.

    Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
    The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

    Superb Justice Secretary.

    President of the Cambridge Union.

    Eminent QC

    For starters.
    Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?
    IDS was the best of a fairly poor choice.
    Ken could never have been trusted, we would have been bounced in to the €.

This discussion has been closed.