politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech
Comments
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F1: although, if you have backed Bottas to be top 3 or win the title, then the race wins market is a similar sort of thing, so you may prefer to avoid it (or bet on him doing poorly, as a hedge). May sit it out.
If I were going in with a clean slate, then the 4 or 5+ bets are the ones I'd consider. Rosberg got that every year he was Hamilton's team mate.0 -
I note with amusement in a Speccie comments thread that Tim Farron is an anagram of Minor Fart. Seems about right.0
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Spiked
Brendan O'Neill on how Obama got away with it https://t.co/sv9ThEmkUw0 -
Their logo is similar to the masonic square and compasses:SimonStClare said:
Farage as the British Trump? I don’t see that at all. Strip away the Guardian’s hyperbole on the subject and it looks more like a 3rd rate protest blog site to promote Arron Banks.Stark_Dawning said:Could this be more transparent? The mission is surely to install Farage as the British Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/19/arron-banks-launches-breitbart-style-site-westmonster
There’s very little to see content wise thus far, but we’ll know soon enough.0 -
Rebelling agaist the leader? sirely Jezza has no problem with that!John_M said:This Guardian story about handwringing Labour MPs is pitiful. If they want to vote against A50 invocation, then they should do so. Corbyn should be their example.
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You know the Masons were persecuted by the Nazis, right?Dromedary said:
Their logo is similar to the masonic square and compasses:SimonStClare said:
Farage as the British Trump? I don’t see that at all. Strip away the Guardian’s hyperbole on the subject and it looks more like a 3rd rate protest blog site to promote Arron Banks.Stark_Dawning said:Could this be more transparent? The mission is surely to install Farage as the British Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/19/arron-banks-launches-breitbart-style-site-westmonster
There’s very little to see content wise thus far, but we’ll know soon enough.0 -
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.PlatoSaid said:Spiked
Brendan O'Neill on how Obama got away with it https://t.co/sv9ThEmkUw
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I do not believe that is the actual rule and, even if it is, how it could ever be enforceable. I believe it is that we cannot conclude deals ahead of actually leaving.SimonStClare said:
With what was announced the other day and now this, tt would appear there is plenty of flexibility to the line ‘no official negotiations can start until 2 years after A50 is activated’.TheScreamingEagles said:Good
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF0 -
We cannot conclude trade agreements while members of the customs union. I know I'm being a bit theological here, but it seems to me that we might end up with some transitional arrangements in respect of our membership.MTimT said:
I do not believe that is the actual rule and, even if it is, how it could ever be enforceable. I believe it is that we cannot conclude deals ahead of actually leaving.SimonStClare said:
With what was announced the other day and now this, tt would appear there is plenty of flexibility to the line ‘no official negotiations can start until 2 years after A50 is activated’.TheScreamingEagles said:Good
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF0 -
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Mr. Song, May.0
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I thought I heard Ms Mogherini (commissioner for foreign affairs???) stating a couple of days ago that talks couldn't even begin till we'd left. To which I thought "yeah right", back in the real world try and stop us. If she's asking, I'm sure we are just going to have a nice chat with the Aussies about the Big Bash and if the topic of them selling us Hunter Valley red comes up well that's just pure coincidence.SimonStClare said:
With what was announced the other day and now this, tt would appear there is plenty of flexibility to the line ‘no official negotiations can start until 2 years after A50 is activated’.TheScreamingEagles said:Good
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF0 -
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May beMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, May.
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Was TMs speech deliberately timed to create a ripple before the A50 ruling?0
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Actually he has a point. Obama got away with a lot because he was pretty and a nice speaker I suspect the left will be more active now because Trump puts an ugly face on ugly policies.SouthamObserver said:
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.PlatoSaid said:Spiked
Brendan O'Neill on how Obama got away with it https://t.co/sv9ThEmkUw0 -
Brendan needs to come out of the closet and tell us that, actually, he just adores Trump. He'd be far happier in himself if he did.SouthamObserver said:
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.PlatoSaid said:Spiked
Brendan O'Neill on how Obama got away with it https://t.co/sv9ThEmkUw0 -
No.philiph said:Was TMs speech deliberately timed to create a ripple before the A50 ruling?
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thanks for the link. You were right.williamglenn said:
There's probably a lot you agree with in this analysis:MTimT said:Alastair, thanks for the article. For the most part, I agree. However, I don't see this as an admission of defeat. I, for one, as a leaver have always advocated going into the negotiations saying what our red lines are (control of our own laws - hence no ECJ - and immigration, and no contributions save to programs we opt into) and then asking the EU what they are willing to do on free trade given those red line. So to me, following that approach, which is essentially what May is doing, is not an admission of defeat, but just realism.
https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/2017/01/a-qa-with-prime-economics-jeremy-smith-on-brexit-immigration-and-democracy.html0 -
French Presidential polling
New Ipsos poll added today.
Comparison with Ipsos poll last month:
Small increase for Le Pen who leads.
Fillon lead over Macron now 4-6% compared to 11-13% last month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20170 -
Mr. G, cheers for that. Let's hope Macron wins0
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Good one, Gallic Goonslogical_song said:0 -
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
Dom DrearySunil_Prasannan said:0 -
My Dear RodMTimT said:
Dom DrearySunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
It appears to be tightening up Mr Dancer. Could be a very close three horse race for the two spots in the run-off.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, cheers for that. Let's hope Macron wins
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Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
Sean, it's off-topic, but you might be interested in the following:SeanT said:
Travel the world a bit and you soon realize that Jamie Oliver is incredibly famous, globally, from Oz to Germany to the Americas. He has his own MAGAZINE in Brazil.felix said:
Catering contract?FrancisUrquhart said:TSE, have you been giving Osborne fashion tips? And what the bloody hell is Jamie Oliver doing there?
https://order-order.com/2017/01/19/davos-fashion-report/
Indeed Brazilians are oddly fond of British culture, in general, as my good friend, the lady Cornish mystery writer S K Tremayne, can attest.
Oh, and greetings from a fiendishly sultry Bangkok.
And thanks to Mister Meeks for a reasonable and interesting Brexit post. I agree with much of it. Seems to me even the most hardened Remoaners are now resigned to Brexit. Apart, perhaps, from our own williamglenn
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2017/01/lithium-mining-could-be-the-next-big-thing-in-cornwall/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-38667701
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'I'm an evil Tory bigot' was my favourite anagram.0
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Why though? Is he even that good a cook?SeanT said:
Travel the world a bit and you soon realize that Jamie Oliver is incredibly famous, globally, from Oz to Germany to the Americas. He has his own MAGAZINE in Brazil.felix said:
Catering contract?FrancisUrquhart said:TSE, have you been giving Osborne fashion tips? And what the bloody hell is Jamie Oliver doing there?
https://order-order.com/2017/01/19/davos-fashion-report/0 -
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
Mr. G, when is the election? April?0
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One of my co-workers in a previous job was an anagram ofTheScreamingEagles said:'I'm an evil Tory bigot' was my favourite anagram.
Sick Lens Randy Routine0 -
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:0 -
40 off 160
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Mr. Song, it's easier to be critical than correct.0
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0
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Mr. G, cheers. Either side of the Russian Grand Prix.0
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Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.0 -
Noooo! I thought my name is un-anagrammable!logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.0 -
The Grand Old Duke of York's staff have clarified his battleplan:
Labour has sought to clarify its position on whether it will impose a three-line whip on any bill allowing the government to trigger article 50. Party sources are now claiming that no final decision has been taken on how the party will whip the vote, although they are not disputing that Jeremy Corbyn wants his MPs to vote in favour.
If Labour does not impose a three-line whip (an instruction to vote a certain way), it could alternatively allow a genuinely free vote or what one might term a “free” vote - one where MPs are technically free to vote as they wish, but encouraged to vote a certain way. It could ask MPs to abstain. Or it could impose a looser, less strict form of whip (a one- or two-line whip), although these are not used for important legislation.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/19/breixt-talks-wil-get-very-nasty-says-former-british-ambassador-to-eu-politics-live
15.590 -
Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.BudG said:French Presidential polling
New Ipsos poll added today.
Comparison with Ipsos poll last month:
Small increase for Le Pen who leads.
Fillon lead over Macron now 4-6% compared to 11-13% last month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20170 -
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.0 -
As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.0 -
Nun's anal sprains!logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
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I'll vote against.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
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Video invite hunTheuniondivvie said:
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.0 -
No. And he wrecked chips-with-everything school dinners.Stark_Dawning said:
Why though? Is he even that good a cook?SeanT said:
Travel the world a bit and you soon realize that Jamie Oliver is incredibly famous, globally, from Oz to Germany to the Americas. He has his own MAGAZINE in Brazil.felix said:
Catering contract?FrancisUrquhart said:TSE, have you been giving Osborne fashion tips? And what the bloody hell is Jamie Oliver doing there?
https://order-order.com/2017/01/19/davos-fashion-report/0 -
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.0 -
22 from 6.0
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Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
Captain Morgan played a rum innings today.0
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Hun video invite would make more sense.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Video invite hunTheuniondivvie said:
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.
I'm always having to turn down invitations from Loyalist pals who want me to come round for a screening of the coronation.0 -
Care to explain why ?Patrick said:
I'll vote against.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
An ideological aversion to tax increases or do you think Surrey is a poorly run Council which could provide additional care by cuts in other services ?
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Maybe he's looking for a similar deal to Wes:TheScreamingEagles said:Captain Morgan played a rum innings today.
https://twitter.com/Wes5L1nk/status/8093825573893775360 -
1) Are Sevco fans still called Huns?Theuniondivvie said:
Hun video invite would make more sense.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Video invite hunTheuniondivvie said:
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.
I'm always having to turn down invitations from Loyalist pals who want me to come round for a screening of the coronation.
2) Why were they called Huns in the first place?0 -
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.0 -
That final pairing would be my bet. Betfair have a market on the final pair and surprisingly Fillon/Macron is regarded more likely than Macron/Le Pen. Can't see it myself, Le Pen looks strong enough to make the final two. I would make Macron/Le Pen second favourite.Paristonda said:
Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.BudG said:French Presidential polling
New Ipsos poll added today.
Comparison with Ipsos poll last month:
Small increase for Le Pen who leads.
Fillon lead over Macron now 4-6% compared to 11-13% last month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20170 -
Another good performance with the bat... but not victory for England0
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No,Theuniondivvie said:
Hun video invite would make more sense.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Video invite hunTheuniondivvie said:
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.
"Video invite, hun!"0 -
Additional rate tax payers already contribute enough taxes thank you very much.Mortimer said:
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.
I'd hypothecate an increase on the basic rate of tax to fund it, as well as abolishing some pensioner perks/perks for better off purchases, cheerio triple lock for starters.
Mike made a point to spend his winter fuel allowance on the Lib Dems winning Richmond0 -
For me, the irony is most of them are where they are because of one referendum and now they face another in their own backyard.TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
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The polls have 65:35 for either Macron or Fillon vs Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
Blair vs Trump.Paristonda said:
Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.BudG said:French Presidential polling
New Ipsos poll added today.
Comparison with Ipsos poll last month:
Small increase for Le Pen who leads.
Fillon lead over Macron now 4-6% compared to 11-13% last month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
A fascinating fight.0 -
Ooh, now that is a can of worms. Yes, they still are.TheScreamingEagles said:
1) Are Sevco fans still called Huns?Theuniondivvie said:
Hun video invite would make more sense.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Video invite hunTheuniondivvie said:
Yep.logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.
Nuns anal sprain.
I'm always having to turn down invitations from Loyalist pals who want me to come round for a screening of the coronation.
2) Why were they called Huns in the first place?
Lots of legend and myths, e.g:
'Lots of different stories on how this name came about, but the most likely stems from that a number of Rangers players were able to dodge the war effort in the World Wars due to connections taking roles in the shipyards instead. Critics said that were no better than the "Huns" (slang at the time in the UK media for the Germans and their Axis power counterparts), and the term stuck'
Or:
'In 1912 Harland and Wolff (Belfast) set up a shipyard in Govan. They brought over workers from Belfast who would dominate the yards culture (being charge hands etc). Wolff was German and World War I broke out in 1914 between Germany and Britain and France. If, as was likely, Catholics were discouraged from applying for work in the yards, it is easy to see how the term for Germans was transferred to Govan workers with a German boss who supported their local team Rangers.'
At one point I believe Celtic supporters were called Huns, apparently down to the Easter uprising being supported with guns from Germany and weakening the war effort.0 -
As I said at half time those last 3 overs from Plunkett which cost us so many runs ultimately cost us the game. Another awesome game though. If Stokes or Buttler had got going today it might have been possible but it was always too much of an ask.TheWhiteRabbit said:Another good performance with the bat... but not victory for England
Edit. He conceded 51 runs in his last 3 overs. There was the winning margin I am afraid.0 -
Fair enough. Who do you think she would prefer to face though?rcs1000 said:
The polls have 65:35 for either Macron or Fillon vs Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
Get Nigel Scams Here0
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Thinking more about the Surrey Referendum, it looks as though we will have the extraordinary situation of Conservatives campaigning for increased taxes and Liberal Democrats campaigning for lower taxes.
Where will UKIP and Labour be in this ?
Will Surrey Conservatives be campaigning on both sides ?
Will it impact on the County Council elections ?
IF the Referendum succeeds, will we see other authorities following a similar route or will it be blocked in an act of centralisation by central Government ?
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I reckon Macron. Support is less established. Take the LR vote as much as possible and hope the far left stay at home.Tissue_Price said:
Fair enough. Who do you think she would prefer to face though?rcs1000 said:
The polls have 65:35 for either Macron or Fillon vs Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
A bit of both. I'm not convinced councils focus religiously on core purpose and ruthlessly eliminate waste. Adult learning, arts, and Surrey Climate Change for example are things I feel are over funded. I'd much rather they emptied my bins once a week instead of once a fortnight! I also think social care is vital but should not be the sole burden of the state for moral reasons. When my 80 year old mum gets decrepit I think I have a duty to look after her to a significant extent rather than farming her out to a care home and letting everyone else pay for it. My wife is Chinese and I quite like the Chinese emphasis on family and community. It's how human beings have cared for each other for millenia. Not sure turning everyhting over to the state is actually good for society. And old age loneliness is a real problem. As is inter-generational 'distance'. It would be good for my daughters to help their grandmother and share in her old age. We all seem too busy and selfish to look after our own. It's not good.stodge said:
Care to explain why ?Patrick said:
I'll vote against.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
An ideological aversion to tax increases or do you think Surrey is a poorly run Council which could provide additional care by cuts in other services ?
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Watch Hospital on iplayer from last night.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Hospital, Episode 2: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08bgtw8 via @bbciplayer
The lack of social care causes a lot of misery as well as wasting expensive theatre and surgical time. So much hanging around unnecessarily.0 -
The Lib Dems will demand another one.stodge said:Thinking more about the Surrey Referendum, it looks as though we will have the extraordinary situation of Conservatives campaigning for increased taxes and Liberal Democrats campaigning for lower taxes.
Where will UKIP and Labour be in this ?
Will Surrey Conservatives be campaigning on both sides ?
Will it impact on the County Council elections ?
IF the Referendum succeeds, will we see other authorities following a similar route or will it be blocked in an act of centralisation by central Government ?0 -
The version I had heard was the Protestants/Rangers fans had often questioned the loyalty of Catholics/Celtic fans, and when World War I broke the Celtic fans liked to remind Rangers fans were loyal to a Hun Royal family, the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gothatheuniondivvie said:Ooh, now that is a can of worms. Yes, they still are.
Lots of legend and myths, e.g:
'Lots of different stories on how this name came about, but the most likely stems from that a number of Rangers players were able to dodge the war effort in the World Wars due to connections taking roles in the shipyards instead. Critics said that were no better than the "Huns" (slang at the time in the UK media for the Germans and their Axis power counterparts), and the term stuck'
Or:
'In 1912 Harland and Wolff (Belfast) set up a shipyard in Govan. They brought over workers from Belfast who would dominate the yards culture (being charge hands etc). Wolff was German and World War I broke out in 1914 between Germany and Britain and France. If, as was likely, Catholics were discouraged from applying for work in the yards, it is easy to see how the term for Germans was transferred to Govan workers with a German boss who supported their local team Rangers.'
At one point I believe Celtic supporters were called Huns, apparently down to the Easter uprising being supported with guns from Germany and weakening the war effort.0 -
I'd have thought the Lawyers, consultants and high flying accountants whom Brexit will directly and most swiftly benefit paying more would be fair.TheScreamingEagles said:
Additional rate tax payers already contribute enough taxes thank you very much.Mortimer said:
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.
I'd hypothecate an increase on the basic rate of tax to fund it, as well as abolishing some pensioner perks/perks for better off purchases, cheerio triple lock for starters.
Mike made a point to spend his winter fuel allowance on the Lib Dems winning RichmondIncreasing the basic rate hurts JAMs relatively more - which doesn't seem exactly fair.
I'm quite a fan of Aussie health style tax supplements for those who can afford it not "opting out" by means of insurance...0 -
Well the JAMs should look at cutting wasteful/unnecessary expenditure.Mortimer said:
I'd have thought the Lawyers, consultants and high flying accountants whom Brexit will directly and most swiftly benefit paying more would be fair.TheScreamingEagles said:
Additional rate tax payers already contribute enough taxes thank you very much.Mortimer said:
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.
I'd hypothecate an increase on the basic rate of tax to fund it, as well as abolishing some pensioner perks/perks for better off purchases, cheerio triple lock for starters.
Mike made a point to spend his winter fuel allowance on the Lib Dems winning RichmondIncreasing the basic rate hurts JAMs relatively more - which doesn't seem exactly fair.
I'm quite a fan of Aussie health style tax supplements for those who can afford it not "opting out" by means of insurance...
How about this, abolish the working tax/family credits and give the money to fund social care.0 -
Ipsos TORY!0
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Could be, it's certainly stuck. Of course Billy Fullerton on whom the Billy Boys song is based was an enthusiastic BUF Blackshirt, but I think the term the Huns was pretty well established by then.TheScreamingEagles said:
The version I had heard was the Protestants/Rangers fans had often questioned the loyalty of Catholics/Celtic fans, and when World War I broke the Celtic fans liked to remind Rangers fans were loyal to a Hun Royal family, the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gothatheuniondivvie said:Ooh, now that is a can of worms. Yes, they still are.
Lots of legend and myths, e.g:
'Lots of different stories on how this name came about, but the most likely stems from that a number of Rangers players were able to dodge the war effort in the World Wars due to connections taking roles in the shipyards instead. Critics said that were no better than the "Huns" (slang at the time in the UK media for the Germans and their Axis power counterparts), and the term stuck'
Or:
'In 1912 Harland and Wolff (Belfast) set up a shipyard in Govan. They brought over workers from Belfast who would dominate the yards culture (being charge hands etc). Wolff was German and World War I broke out in 1914 between Germany and Britain and France. If, as was likely, Catholics were discouraged from applying for work in the yards, it is easy to see how the term for Germans was transferred to Govan workers with a German boss who supported their local team Rangers.'
At one point I believe Celtic supporters were called Huns, apparently down to the Easter uprising being supported with guns from Germany and weakening the war effort.
The Orcs is a recent, amusing development.0 -
Im no fan of tax credits as you know, but Osborne cubed is not going to get through either house. Remember the screaming when it was going to be cut a small amount...TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the JAMs should look at cutting wasteful/unnecessary expenditure.Mortimer said:
I'd have thought the Lawyers, consultants and high flying accountants whom Brexit will directly and most swiftly benefit paying more would be fair.TheScreamingEagles said:
Additional rate tax payers already contribute enough taxes thank you very much.Mortimer said:
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.
I'd hypothecate an increase on the basic rate of tax to fund it, as well as abolishing some pensioner perks/perks for better off purchases, cheerio triple lock for starters.
Mike made a point to spend his winter fuel allowance on the Lib Dems winning RichmondIncreasing the basic rate hurts JAMs relatively more - which doesn't seem exactly fair.
I'm quite a fan of Aussie health style tax supplements for those who can afford it not "opting out" by means of insurance...
How about this, abolish the working tax/family credits and give the money to fund social care.0 -
Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?0
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I think she'd prefer to face Macron.Tissue_Price said:
Fair enough. Who do you think she would prefer to face though?rcs1000 said:
The polls have 65:35 for either Macron or Fillon vs Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
My boss, who I've known for nearly seventeen years is a Partrick fan, some of the stuff he told me about the Rangers/Celtic rivalry I thought he was joking, turned out to be true.Theuniondivvie said:
Could be, it's certainly stuck. Of course Billy Fullerton on whom the Billy Boys song is based was an enthusiastic BUF Blackshirt, but I think the term the Huns was pretty well established by then.TheScreamingEagles said:
The version I had heard was the Protestants/Rangers fans had often questioned the loyalty of Catholics/Celtic fans, and when World War I broke the Celtic fans liked to remind Rangers fans were loyal to a Hun Royal family, the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gothatheuniondivvie said:Ooh, now that is a can of worms. Yes, they still are.
Lots of legend and myths, e.g:
'Lots of different stories on how this name came about, but the most likely stems from that a number of Rangers players were able to dodge the war effort in the World Wars due to connections taking roles in the shipyards instead. Critics said that were no better than the "Huns" (slang at the time in the UK media for the Germans and their Axis power counterparts), and the term stuck'
Or:
'In 1912 Harland and Wolff (Belfast) set up a shipyard in Govan. They brought over workers from Belfast who would dominate the yards culture (being charge hands etc). Wolff was German and World War I broke out in 1914 between Germany and Britain and France. If, as was likely, Catholics were discouraged from applying for work in the yards, it is easy to see how the term for Germans was transferred to Govan workers with a German boss who supported their local team Rangers.'
At one point I believe Celtic supporters were called Huns, apparently down to the Easter uprising being supported with guns from Germany and weakening the war effort.
The Orcs is a recent, amusing development.
The LOTR fan in me likes the origin of the orcs nickname.0 -
Those 17% of Tories are delighted with the job Corbyn is doing - of making Labour unelectable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
This is going to sound tactless and I apologise to the victims, but I haven't got the energy to be nuanced at the moment.Ishmael_Z said:Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?
It helps the victims when suing Rolf Harris and make claims against him and his estate.
I know they aren't doing it for the money, the women deserve it, but it makes life easier for the claim if he's been convicted of abusing them.0 -
Ah ok.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is going to sound tactless and I apologise to the victims, but I haven't got the energy to be nuanced at the moment.Ishmael_Z said:Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?
It helps the victims when suing Rolf Harris and make claims against him and his estate.
I know they aren't doing it for the money, the women deserve it, but it makes life easier for the claim if he's been convicted of abusing them.0 -
Annuls pirannasSunil_Prasannan said:
Noooo! I thought my name is un-anagrammable!logical_song said:
Nasal An Rips NunSunil_Prasannan said:
Snog call go Ilogical_song said:
Everyone's a critic.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where's the "J"?logical_song said:
Clue, it will apply from tomorrow for 4 years.MTimT said:
Must be Mandelson.logical_song said:
Or "Prominent Turd Paddles"logical_song said:
I'm sure it could be worse.0 -
Probably true but she would still lose. Le Pen's slim chances ended when Sarkozy was eliminated.rcs1000 said:
I think she'd prefer to face Macron.Tissue_Price said:
Fair enough. Who do you think she would prefer to face though?rcs1000 said:
The polls have 65:35 for either Macron or Fillon vs Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's Le Pen's best chance of winning.Paristonda said:Macron v Le Pen is the contest France needs to have. The two couldn't be more polar opposites. It will completely jumble up the voting groups.
It's possible that the French electorate have cyclic preferences, in that the second round results might be:
Fillon --> Le Pen --> Macron --> Fillon0 -
Jeremy Corbyn confirms he will ask Labour MPs to vote for Theresa May's Brexit http://ind.pn/2k7tL4v0
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I refuse to link to it, but in Farage's article on the new Breitbart he says this about Trump's cabinet: "And how fascinating and refreshing it is to see individuals taking big jobs who have never been involved in elected politics before."
Has he never followed American politics before in his life?0 -
I'm all for punishing the breeders, won't affect meTheScreamingEagles said:
Well the JAMs should look at cutting wasteful/unnecessary expenditure.Mortimer said:
I'd have thought the Lawyers, consultants and high flying accountants whom Brexit will directly and most swiftly benefit paying more would be fair.TheScreamingEagles said:
Additional rate tax payers already contribute enough taxes thank you very much.Mortimer said:
As an aside, TSE, how would you fund social care?TheScreamingEagles said:
The optics of this look bad for the Tories when you consider the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary are both Surrey MPs.stodge said:As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629
Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.
My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.
Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.
Ditto the Leader of the House, throw in backbench MPs like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
I'm wondering whether a social care levy on higher rate earners might make sense.
I'd hypothecate an increase on the basic rate of tax to fund it, as well as abolishing some pensioner perks/perks for better off purchases, cheerio triple lock for starters.
Mike made a point to spend his winter fuel allowance on the Lib Dems winning RichmondIncreasing the basic rate hurts JAMs relatively more - which doesn't seem exactly fair.
I'm quite a fan of Aussie health style tax supplements for those who can afford it not "opting out" by means of insurance...
How about this, abolish the working tax/family credits and give the money to fund social care.
A fair proposal.0 -
As a matter of interest, for me, and I think other MPs, the big marches (Iraq, Countryside Alliance) were counter-productive. Lots of unpleasant slogans (fuck Bliar and all that), a claim to represent public opinion not borne out by polling at the time or by constituency feedback. I felt determined not to be intimidated.The fact that I later came to feel the Iraq marchers were right to oppose our involvement doesn't alter how I felt at the time. The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.Barnesian said:
Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.
I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.
"Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.
It's difficult for people who feel strongly about something and desperately want to influence Parliament - any big march is going to attract nasty fringe elements, but the absence of a march can give the impression that people aren't too bothered.0 -
Corbyn's gone with the three line whip, despite knowing that there will be a significant number of rebels. His weak position likely to come home to roost.0
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When he was a backbencher, did Corbyn often ignore three line whips?TheWhiteRabbit said:Corbyn's gone with the three line whip, despite knowing that there will be a significant number of rebels. His weak position likely to come home to roost.
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Bollocks to Blair T shirt wearers were arrested.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624668/Wear-an-anti-Blair-jacket...-and-youll-have-your-collar-felt.html0 -
I’m all in favour of allowing MPs a free vote on matters of conscience, though I suspect the reasoning behind Corbyn’s decision not to enforce a 3 line whip is more to do with avoiding the humiliation of half his loyal back bench rebelling.TheWhiteRabbit said:Jeremy Corbyn confirms he will ask Labour MPs to vote for Theresa May's Brexit http://ind.pn/2k7tL4v
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My understanding was that it was an acronym, the first word being "orange" and it rather falling away from there. I suspect the somewhat misshapen appearance of the Tolkien version was just a bonusTheScreamingEagles said:
My boss, who I've known for nearly seventeen years is a Partrick fan, some of the stuff he told me about the Rangers/Celtic rivalry I thought he was joking, turned out to be true.Theuniondivvie said:
Could be, it's certainly stuck. Of course Billy Fullerton on whom the Billy Boys song is based was an enthusiastic BUF Blackshirt, but I think the term the Huns was pretty well established by then.TheScreamingEagles said:
The version I had heard was the Protestants/Rangers fans had often questioned the loyalty of Catholics/Celtic fans, and when World War I broke the Celtic fans liked to remind Rangers fans were loyal to a Hun Royal family, the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gothatheuniondivvie said:Ooh, now that is a can of worms. Yes, they still are.
Lots of legend and myths, e.g:
'Lots of different stories on how this name came about, but the most likely stems from that a number of Rangers players were able to dodge the war effort in the World Wars due to connections taking roles in the shipyards instead. Critics said that were no better than the "Huns" (slang at the time in the UK media for the Germans and their Axis power counterparts), and the term stuck'
Or:
'In 1912 Harland and Wolff (Belfast) set up a shipyard in Govan. They brought over workers from Belfast who would dominate the yards culture (being charge hands etc). Wolff was German and World War I broke out in 1914 between Germany and Britain and France. If, as was likely, Catholics were discouraged from applying for work in the yards, it is easy to see how the term for Germans was transferred to Govan workers with a German boss who supported their local team Rangers.'
At one point I believe Celtic supporters were called Huns, apparently down to the Easter uprising being supported with guns from Germany and weakening the war effort.
The Orcs is a recent, amusing development.
The LOTR fan in me likes the origin of the orcs nickname.0