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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech

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  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    Good Evening.

    On that note, this article about letters to Obama is fascinating

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/magazine/what-americans-wrote-to-obama.html
  • Options

    Jeremy Corbyn confirms he will ask Labour MPs to vote for Theresa May's Brexit http://ind.pn/2k7tL4v

    I’m all in favour of allowing MPs a free vote on matters of conscience, though I suspect the reasoning behind Corbyn’s decision not to enforce a 3 line whip is more to do with avoiding the humiliation of half his loyal back bench rebelling.
    He has indicated (but not stated) it WILL be a three line whip.
  • Options
    stodge said:

    Patrick said:

    stodge said:

    As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629

    Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.

    My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.

    Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.

    I'll vote against.
    Care to explain why ?

    An ideological aversion to tax increases or do you think Surrey is a poorly run Council which could provide additional care by cuts in other services ?

    I think I would reluctantly vote for as I do believe social care is badly neglected. But I do also think like Patrick that there are plenty of other areas they could cut to add to the social care fund and also that the money should be strictly hypothecated.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    stodge said:

    Patrick said:

    stodge said:

    As expected, Surrey County Council are going to hold a referendum on raising Council Tax by 15% to fund adult social care provision:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38678629

    Fascinating to see how this goes. Received wisdom is people don't usually vote for higher taxes.

    My friend who works at SCC finance told me last week the Budget setting for 17-18 had proved the most challenging ever and of course it's election year as well.

    Interested to hear the comments of Conservatives on this.

    I'll vote against.
    Care to explain why ?

    An ideological aversion to tax increases or do you think Surrey is a poorly run Council which could provide additional care by cuts in other services ?

    They must know it has zero chance of passing. Good way to bring attention to the problems in social care funding.
  • Options

    Jeremy Corbyn confirms he will ask Labour MPs to vote for Theresa May's Brexit http://ind.pn/2k7tL4v

    I’m all in favour of allowing MPs a free vote on matters of conscience, though I suspect the reasoning behind Corbyn’s decision not to enforce a 3 line whip is more to do with avoiding the humiliation of half his loyal back bench rebelling.
    As a matter of principle I object to whipping and think all Parliamentary votes should be free votes. Why we accept such means of threatening and bribing our representatives is beyond me.
  • Options
    dr_spyn said:
    I still have my Bollocks to Blair T shirt.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    they were completely right and I was completely wrong. I am ashamed of my stupid unexamined position in favour of that war. It's probably the once-held opinion I most regret.

    ...hold that thought.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Looks like Hammond and May are continuing their good cop, bad cop routine at Davos
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    For those betting on Trump's tie colour tomorrow, he's in blue today.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    Scott_P said:

    Looks like Hammond and May are continuing their good cop, bad cop routine at Davos

    Johnson bringing up the rear as comedy cop. The Clouseau of the Brexit team.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alantravis40: Seumas Milne to continue as Labour's director of strategy and communications and is leaving the staff of the Guardian, Kath Viner announces
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    As a Scottish Tory in the early years of the century who also opposed the Iraq war I had a slight tendency to avoid political discussions...It was a pretty small club.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:



    Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.

    I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.

    "Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.

    As a matter of interest, for me, and I think other MPs, the big marches (Iraq, Countryside Alliance) were counter-productive. Lots of unpleasant slogans (fuck Bliar and all that), a claim to represent public opinion not borne out by polling at the time or by constituency feedback. I felt determined not to be intimidated.The fact that I later came to feel the Iraq marchers were right to oppose our involvement doesn't alter how I felt at the time. The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    It's difficult for people who feel strongly about something and desperately want to influence Parliament - any big march is going to attract nasty fringe elements, but the absence of a march can give the impression that people aren't too bothered.
    I remember chortling and scoffing at the Iraq marchers. And deriding them as middle class do-gooders with a dash of Islamist extremism.

    They might well have been all that, but they were completely right and I was completely wrong. I am ashamed of my stupid unexamined position in favour of that war. It's probably the once-held opinion I most regret.
    I remember seeing the tv pics of us bombing Iraq one Friday evening, going down the pub and saying how wrong we were to do it, and a few of my mates getting the right ump with me about it!
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    edited January 2017
    .
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,762
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:



    Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.

    I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.

    "Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.

    As a matter of interest, for me, and I think other MPs, the big marches (Iraq, Countryside Alliance) were counter-productive. Lots of unpleasant slogans (fuck Bliar and all that), a claim to represent public opinion not borne out by polling at the time or by constituency feedback. I felt determined not to be intimidated.The fact that I later came to feel the Iraq marchers were right to oppose our involvement doesn't alter how I felt at the time. The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    It's difficult for people who feel strongly about something and desperately want to influence Parliament - any big march is going to attract nasty fringe elements, but the absence of a march can give the impression that people aren't too bothered.
    I remember chortling and scoffing at the Iraq marchers. And deriding them as middle class do-gooders with a dash of Islamist extremism.

    They might well have been all that, but they were completely right and I was completely wrong. I am ashamed of my stupid unexamined position in favour of that war. It's probably the once-held opinion I most regret.
    Iraq played out exactly as I expected. I will also be right :) that Brexit will be an intractable mess too. No special insight. Simply ,similar false assumptions and overselling of the case..
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,387
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @alantravis40: Seumas Milne to continue as Labour's director of strategy and communications and is leaving the staff of the Guardian, Kath Viner announces

    Haha The Graun living in mortal fear that he'll return and work his magic.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278
    Scott_P said:

    @alantravis40: Seumas Milne to continue as Labour's director of strategy and communications and is leaving the staff of the Guardian, Kath Viner announces

    Thank f for that. As a Guardian reader it was seriously p-ing me off that there was this blurred line between a mainline Corbynista and the paper. Not good journalism. Milne clearly did not feel totally committed to the new job but now seems to have decided it will all work out.

  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    Six tees
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:



    Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.

    I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.

    "Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.

    As a matter of interest, for me, and I think other MPs, the big marches (Iraq, Countryside Alliance) were counter-productive. Lots of unpleasant slogans (fuck Bliar and all that), a claim to represent public opinion not borne out by polling at the time or by constituency feedback. I felt determined not to be intimidated.The fact that I later came to feel the Iraq marchers were right to oppose our involvement doesn't alter how I felt at the time. The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    It's difficult for people who feel strongly about something and desperately want to influence Parliament - any big march is going to attract nasty fringe elements, but the absence of a march can give the impression that people aren't too bothered.
    I remember chortling and scoffing at the Iraq marchers. And deriding them as middle class do-gooders with a dash of Islamist extremism.

    They might well have been all that, but they were completely right and I was completely wrong. I am ashamed of my stupid unexamined position in favour of that war. It's probably the once-held opinion I most regret.
    Iraq played out exactly as I expected. I will also be right :) that Brexit will be an intractable mess too. No special insight. Simply ,similar false assumptions and overselling of the case..
    Yawn.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    For those betting on Trump's tie colour tomorrow, he's in blue today.

    Secret Tory?
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    You're an American politician: Sen. Randy Tool?
  • Options

    I think I would reluctantly vote for as I do believe social care is badly neglected. But I do also think like Patrick that there are plenty of other areas they could cut to add to the social care fund and also that the money should be strictly hypothecated.

    To be fair to Surrey County Council, on a cursory glance at least they don't seem to be frittering away money on fripperies:

    https://www.surreycc.gov.uk/your-council/council-tax-and-finance/medium-term-financial-plan/revenue-how-the-council-spends-its-budget
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tamcohen: Some Labour MPs predicting HALF the PLP would abstain on or oppose a three-line whip on Article 50 if Supreme Court backs a Parly vote
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    edited January 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.
  • Options

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?

    This is going to sound tactless and I apologise to the victims, but I haven't got the energy to be nuanced at the moment.

    It helps the victims when suing Rolf Harris and make claims against him and his estate.

    I know they aren't doing it for the money, the women deserve it, but it makes life easier for the claim if he's been convicted of abusing them.
    Who was it that said I have written a long argument as I don't have the time to write a short one?
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...

    Hi there, Sonny Leotard.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    Animal_pb said:

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    You're an American politician: Sen. Randy Tool?
    Junior Senator for the princely state of County Durham!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    I got it... Randy Sentool.

    :D
  • Options
    The survival of Britain's leading industry is now the subject of vague aspiration. It's all a bit scary.
  • Options

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?

    This is going to sound tactless and I apologise to the victims, but I haven't got the energy to be nuanced at the moment.

    It helps the victims when suing Rolf Harris and make claims against him and his estate.

    I know they aren't doing it for the money, the women deserve it, but it makes life easier for the claim if he's been convicted of abusing them.
    Who was it that said I have written a long argument as I don't have the time to write a short one?
    Roughly Mark Twain.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.

    My uncle in Dundee was very upset when his daughter MARRIED a catholic. Scenes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278
    Scott_P said:

    @tamcohen: Some Labour MPs predicting HALF the PLP would abstain on or oppose a three-line whip on Article 50 if Supreme Court backs a Parly vote

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    This will be the moment the Labour party breaks in two and slips beneath the waves.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    Got a very consistent, even repetitive message there. We want a free trade agreement. The ball is very definitely in the EU's court (not, thankfully, the CJE).
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    DavidL said:

    Got a very consistent, even repetitive message there. We want a free trade agreement. The ball is very definitely in the EU's court (not, thankfully, the CJE).
    but has she got wee Mrs McTurnips permission ?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    EU infighting has started already ... oh dear..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

    "Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."

    ""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

    "The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,387

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    PB's next competition nailed on..
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @tamcohen: Some Labour MPs predicting HALF the PLP would abstain on or oppose a three-line whip on Article 50 if Supreme Court backs a Parly vote

    Jeremy Corbyn is whipping his MPs to back a Conservative Government policy that most of them are crestfallen about.

    Can't shift him, can't work with him. Labour is not just riven, it's basically defunct. All that's keeping its MPs together is the fear of getting wiped out under FPTP if the party splits two, three or even four ways.

    I've talked about Scottish Labour, Northern Labour and Southern Labour in the past, but even the latter is now itself split over Europe, with some of them fanatically Europhile and others Bennite refuseniks.

    Can this mass of contradictions survive in one piece for another three-and-a-bit years to fight the next election? God alone knows.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/house/82505/anushka-asthana-could-labour-party-be-first

    Oh, and there's this, just to lighten the mood...

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/822134807455035392

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/822133018995392512
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.

    My uncle in Dundee was very upset when his daughter MARRIED a catholic. Scenes.
    He wasn't daft - probably added 90 minutes in church to every life event - marriages, christenings, funerals....

    I was at a papist wedding before Xmas - almost lost the will to live it dragged on for that long - luckily the 3G signal was decent.

  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    Hi there, Sonny Leotard.
    Roland (or Ronald) Stoney?
    Drayton Olsen?

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    edited January 2017

    DavidL said:

    Got a very consistent, even repetitive message there. We want a free trade agreement. The ball is very definitely in the EU's court (not, thankfully, the CJE).
    but has she got wee Mrs McTurnips permission ?
    Almost certainly. If Scotland were to break away from rUK it would need a decent lottery win or two and free trade agreements with both rUK and the EU.
  • Options

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    Are you sure it isn't a monogram?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Barnesian said:



    Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.

    I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.

    "Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.

    As a matter of interest, for me, and I think other MPs, the big marches (Iraq, Countryside Alliance) were counter-productive. Lots of unpleasant slogans (fuck Bliar and all that), a claim to represent public opinion not borne out by polling at the time or by constituency feedback. I felt determined not to be intimidated.The fact that I later came to feel the Iraq marchers were right to oppose our involvement doesn't alter how I felt at the time. The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    It's difficult for people who feel strongly about something and desperately want to influence Parliament - any big march is going to attract nasty fringe elements, but the absence of a march can give the impression that people aren't too bothered.
    I was in the march. Some unpleasant slogans but very much the minority as I recall.

    The slogan I remember was... 'Not in my name' ...
    Felt good that I was there at least even if we didn't win.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    TGOHF said:

    EU infighting has started already ... oh dear..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

    "Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."

    ""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

    "The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."

    I am not entirely confident that the Telegraph is an impartial reporter of facts on these matters. The correct tone was May's: we want the EU to do well so they are a better trading partner for us going forward than they have been since 2008.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.
    Yet Dundee United play in orange, don't they?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    Dromedary said:

    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    Hi there, Sonny Leotard.
    Roland (or Ronald) Stoney?
    Drayton Olsen?

    Actually, it is Sandy Rentool, but with the two Os the opposite way round...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.
    Yet Dundee United play in orange, don't they?
    Isn't that in homage to the marmalade industry?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278

    Scott_P said:

    @tamcohen: Some Labour MPs predicting HALF the PLP would abstain on or oppose a three-line whip on Article 50 if Supreme Court backs a Parly vote

    Jeremy Corbyn is whipping his MPs to back a Conservative Government policy that most of them are crestfallen about.

    Can't shift him, can't work with him. Labour is not just riven, it's basically defunct. All that's keeping its MPs together is the fear of getting wiped out under FPTP if the party splits two, three or even four ways.

    I've talked about Scottish Labour, Northern Labour and Southern Labour in the past, but even the latter is now itself split over Europe, with some of them fanatically Europhile and others Bennite refuseniks.

    Can this mass of contradictions survive in one piece for another three-and-a-bit years to fight the next election? God alone knows.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/house/82505/anushka-asthana-could-labour-party-be-first

    Oh, and there's this, just to lighten the mood...

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/822134807455035392

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/822133018995392512
    All in all, another fine day for Labour.

    Surely we are due a resignation at the weekend. I mean it's been a few days now.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.

    My uncle in Dundee was very upset when his daughter MARRIED a catholic. Scenes.
    My father in law was the engineer responsible for fitting out Cruachan in the early 60s. He was interviewing for staff and there was an eminently qualified applicant. To his surprise no one else on the panel had a single question. When he suggested that he was appropriate the comments were, well that would be a first and did not you not see where he went to school? I understand he insisted on employing him but he didn't last long.

    It is sad Scotland still has shades of this nonsense even today.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.
    Yet Dundee United play in orange, don't they?
    They officially call it "tangerine"..
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    From a young age, I learned that discretion was essential for self preservation even if PTFC scored when playing Rangers or Celtic. I never wore a red or yellow scarf for those games.

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.
    Yet Dundee United play in orange, don't they?
    Tangerine I'll have you know. But they didn't always.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Some Labour MPs appear to think they are the opposition...

    @tamcohen: Labour backbenchers, esp pro-single market ones, will try to amend bill re EU citizens, financial services, guarantee of 2nd vote on deal
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.

    My uncle in Dundee was very upset when his daughter MARRIED a catholic. Scenes.
    He wasn't daft - probably added 90 minutes in church to every life event - marriages, christenings, funerals....

    I was at a papist wedding before Xmas - almost lost the will to live it dragged on for that long - luckily the 3G signal was decent.

    Seconded. I went to one and thought it would never end. Ironically, the marriage didn't last long at all. When the same friend remarried last year I was grateful she chose a registry office. 20 minutes, bish bash bosh I do.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TGOHF said:

    EU infighting has started already ... oh dear..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

    "Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."

    ""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

    "The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."

    Perhaps somebody should sit down with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands and explain to him, slowly and patiently, one more time why a currency union between states as disparate as his own and poor bloody bankrupt Greece can't ever be run successfully without a political union. With a common Government, treasury, taxes, fiscal transfers, and debt.

    If the EU wants to survive then it either has to go forward to federalism, or backward to sovereign currencies. Either way, this will need to be accompanied by a wave of sovereign debt restructuring and forgiveness, and accompanying bank recapitalisation in the northern states.

    Of course, Germany doesn't want its Zollverein Mk2 either to be dissolved, or to move forward to political union whilst there's any chance that it will cost Merkel's taxpayers any money. The plan is to have everybody else suffer, for decades if need be, until they become more German - which is mad. An alternative course for the EU is only possible if another leader - and realistically it has to be one from within the Eurozone - faces the Germans down and wrests the initiative from Merkel in the European Council. But she's too strong and her counterparts are all too weak, so the rot will continue for the foreseeable.
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    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    I think OGH is fairly open when it comes to guest contributions.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    When is your magnum opus due for review?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    RobD said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    I think OGH is fairly open when it comes to guest contributions.
    To be fair, the contributors put a lot of effort into the guest articles.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
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    Scott_P said:

    Looks like Hammond and May are continuing their good cop, bad cop routine at Davos

    Did Clarkson turn up??
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    I think OGH is fairly open when it comes to guest contributions.
    To be fair, the contributors put a lot of effort into the guest articles.
    Undoubtedly!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    You say that but in these days of everything being seen through the prism of Leave or Remain, the church isn't that broad is it?
  • Options
    An interesting article from Bloomberg on Euro-denominated clearing post-Brexit:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/bank-execs-in-davos-privately-say-london-clearing-probably-safe

    Executive summary: Maybe it is safe, maybe it's not.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidHughesPA: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has told @PA he is quitting frontline politics to concentrate on recovering from "a very serious illness".
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,029
    Essexit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember my mum telling me that in the 50s gangs would charge around Dundee (yes, on the east coast) asking other kids if you were catholic or protestant. Get the answer wrong and you got a doing.

    Dundee had a strong catholic tradition, especially in Lochee, where a lot of catholic Irish immigrants had come across to work in the Jute mills. I have some ancestors from that source and 4 of my father's great grandparents were Irish born.

    Dundee United came from that tradition with Dundee being the protestant team. Thankfully by the time I was regularly on the terraces in the 1970s that was already ancient history.

    My uncle in Dundee was very upset when his daughter MARRIED a catholic. Scenes.
    He wasn't daft - probably added 90 minutes in church to every life event - marriages, christenings, funerals....

    I was at a papist wedding before Xmas - almost lost the will to live it dragged on for that long - luckily the 3G signal was decent.

    Seconded. I went to one and thought it would never end. Ironically, the marriage didn't last long at all. When the same friend remarried last year I was grateful she chose a registry office. 20 minutes, bish bash bosh I do.
    Back in the sixties my (originally) Welsh Baptist father was very much against my sisters Catholic boyfriend. He was even more upset when he was told that the wedding HAD to be in an RC church. And yes, the service did go ON!

    It took several post-service drinks to bring my father to some semblance of appropriate behaviour for the father of the bride!
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Scott_P said:

    @DavidHughesPA: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has told @PA he is quitting frontline politics to concentrate on recovering from "a very serious illness".

    lead item on bbc
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    Scott_P said:

    @DavidHughesPA: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has told @PA he is quitting frontline politics to concentrate on recovering from "a very serious illness".

    lead item on bbc
    He did look and sound ill on TV last week.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Scott_P said:

    The constituents who wrote me polite letters saying they'd supported me and would like me to conider their view that I was wrong came much closer to swaying me.

    Good Evening.

    On that note, this article about letters to Obama is fascinating

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/magazine/what-americans-wrote-to-obama.html
    Great read. Some heartbreaking stories.
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    isam said:

    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    You say that but in these days of everything being seen through the prism of Leave or Remain, the church isn't that broad is it?
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    isam said:

    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    You say that but in these days of everything being seen through the prism of Leave or Remain, the church isn't that broad is it?
    There's nuance even within that binary set. Messrs Glenn, Meeks and Nabavi hold different views within the Remain camp (or, at the very least, are at different stages of Kübler-Ross), and there's obviously a wide range of views about a post-Brexit future among the prominent Leavers on the site.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    Well said. I do find Mr Meeks' Jeremiads a little grating, but they are worth the read and probably contain more than a grain of truth.

    When I was discussing the result with my Dad shortly after the referendum (stereotype reversal here: I voted Leave, oldie voted Remain) he thought that the economic consequences of the vote would be moderately bad. I'm hoping for an outcome on the upside of that, but regardless one feels that there almost has to be some sort of price to be paid - just as there would've been a price to staying in, just not, perhaps, one so easily quantified in pounds.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rkrkrk said:

    Great read. Some heartbreaking stories.

    Yes. I wonder how The Donald will handle it? 10 retweets a day perhaps?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @DavidHughesPA: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has told @PA he is quitting frontline politics to concentrate on recovering from "a very serious illness".

    Nothing trivial I hope.
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    Essexit said:

    Disappointing that no-one anagrammed my screen name...

    Sex ties
    Sexiest

    It may come as a surprise to some, but my screen name is actually an anagram of my real name...
    Andy Loo-Rents?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    John_M said:

    isam said:

    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    You say that but in these days of everything being seen through the prism of Leave or Remain, the church isn't that broad is it?
    There's nuance even within that binary set. Messrs Glenn, Meeks and Nabavi hold different views within the Remain camp (or, at the very least, are at different stages of Kübler-Ross), and there's obviously a wide range of views about a post-Brexit future among the prominent Leavers on the site.
    Sorry, I meant thread headers rather than comments
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    RobD said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    I think OGH is fairly open when it comes to guest contributions.
    To be fair, the contributors put a lot of effort into the guest articles.
    Indeed. I'm not sure I'd be able to offer anything half as coherent, even if anybody were that interested in my ramblings in the first place.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    DavidL said:

    Got a very consistent, even repetitive message there. We want a free trade agreement. The ball is very definitely in the EU's court (not, thankfully, the CJE).
    So do German farmers...

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-agriculture-idUKKBN15329U

    Oh, and where's the £10bn coming from to plug the Brexit Gap? I read something similar yesterday from the Irish Agri-Food Industry.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Great read. Some heartbreaking stories.

    Yes. I wonder how The Donald will handle it? 10 retweets a day perhaps?
    Probably won't read any of them, or will be given a very small subset.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    And on this occasion John I agree with you 100%!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    TGOHF said:

    EU infighting has started already ... oh dear..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

    "Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."

    ""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

    "The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."

    This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.

    In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.

    All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Great read. Some heartbreaking stories.

    Yes. I wonder how The Donald will handle it? 10 retweets a day perhaps?
    I can't imagine him setting aside time to read letters...
    But I can imagine that he would be personally very affected by stories.
    The idea of him tweeting that he met someone and Congress should do x... Or I will help him... That doesn't seem far fetched to me at all.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    chestnut said:

    DavidL said:

    Got a very consistent, even repetitive message there. We want a free trade agreement. The ball is very definitely in the EU's court (not, thankfully, the CJE).
    So do German farmers...

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-agriculture-idUKKBN15329U

    Oh, and where's the £10bn coming from to plug the Brexit Gap? I read something similar yesterday from the Irish Agri-Food Industry.
    Indeed - money talks and bull**** from Maltese MEP's will walk..
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/newsannabelle/status/822131633851682816

    @BethRigby: Point 2; tipped as a possible Corbyn successor, @labourlewis taking the position on #Brexit that Labour MPs had wanted from leader. twitter.com/newsannabelle/…
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    I also think the WEF is on its last legs. If China is turning into the defender of globalisation it's all over, at least for the west.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    PB is a broad church. It's important to have a diversity of views. If you'd like an echo chamber, Twitter is that way --->.

    I say that as someone who agrees with Alastair about 0% of the time.
    And on this occasion John I agree with you 100%!
    Not sure how having a daily remoaner article from the same source is a "diversity of views"...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    Labour MPs who represent constituences that can reasonably be deemed to have voted Remain can justifiably represent their local voters by opposing A50.

    The ones who represent Leave constituencies should support it or resign.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    Labour MPs who represent constituences that can reasonably be deemed to have voted Remain can justifiably represent their local voters by opposing A50.

    The ones who represent Leave constituencies should support it or resign.

    'Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.'
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    isamisam Posts: 40,960

    chestnut said:

    Labour MPs who represent constituences that can reasonably be deemed to have voted Remain can justifiably represent their local voters by opposing A50.

    The ones who represent Leave constituencies should support it or resign.

    'Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.'
    ...and he also owes them his living!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657

    chestnut said:

    Labour MPs who represent constituences that can reasonably be deemed to have voted Remain can justifiably represent their local voters by opposing A50.

    The ones who represent Leave constituencies should support it or resign.

    'Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.'
    Except when a decision has been decided by a referendum, in which case there is no role for a representative, other than rubber-stamping the result (if the Supreme Court decides that this is necessary).
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,056
    Off-topic:

    London's largest-ever explosion occurred 100 years ago at 18.52 this evening.

    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2017/01/silvertown-100.html
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,387
    edited January 2017

    An interesting article from Bloomberg on Euro-denominated clearing post-Brexit:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/bank-execs-in-davos-privately-say-london-clearing-probably-safe

    Executive summary: Maybe it is safe, maybe it's not.

    The central premise of financial services is that the main threat to London is not in Europe but is New York (for several reasons).

    New York has equivalence for clearing so if there was a move of EUR, ceteris paribus, that's where it would go.

    If however the ECB brings its law suit again, and is successful (which would rely on a change of policy at EU Commission level) then neither NY or London would get it and indeed it would go to a Eurozone country.
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    Haven't read through all comments, so not sure if this has been asked already, but:

    Why has this site descended to the point where drivel from Alastair Meeks is posted as site content, rather than merely appearing in the comments?

    I don't agree with Alastair Meeks but he writes thoughtful articles that are worth consideration.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,762
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off topically why are my tax dollars being wasted on prosecuting in a 5 week trial the already-incarcerated 86 year old vile person Rolf Harris for stuff he allegedly did, similar to the stuff he is in prison for, in the 1970s? I can see the argument that the current batch of alleged victims will feel they have received justice, but can we not have a sense of proportion about this?

    Because tharte justice being done for a crime (allegedly) committed. The accused is legally innocent unless proven guilty.
This discussion has been closed.