"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
May is a bit like George Osborne in 2015
Within 18 months of the end of her political career ? A bold claim...
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
The country is clearly in favour of Sensible Brexit.
What's more, the public believe the government are being sensible and reasonable, so the blame for problems is set to be laid at the door of the unreasonable EU.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
May is a bit like George Osborne in 2015
Within 18 months of the end of her political career ? A bold claim...
Things are volatile. May could persist, but it's worth remembering that pretty recently others were settling in for a long stint at the top.
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Trump will have a fairly golden inheritance rather like Blair in 97, which takes a while to squander. Despite all Trump's rhetoric, job creation and wages have fared well under Obama despite the GFC.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
Turns out there's another right wing nutter who wants MPs to meet their 'miserable ends at the hands of the Britain First movement'. Thank goodness there's only the two of them, and that they're entirely unconnected to any wider political movements.
"Britain First leader issues threat to 'traitor' MPs upon jail release: 'You will all meet your miserable ends'"
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Trump will have a fairly golden inheritance rather like Blair in 97, which takes a while to squander. Despite all Trump's rhetoric, job creation and wages have fared well under Obama despite the GFC.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
So you'll be pleased to know that the weather forecast for tomorrow in DC is heavy rain. The Park Service has relented and allowed collapsible umbrellas for the inauguration. They maintained the ban on selfie sticks however.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Personally, I think this makes Indyref2 more likely.
The number of pro-EU Sindies is about 30%.
70% of Scots oppose one or both of those positions.
Is succumbing to diktat from Europe, with even less of a voice than at Westminster, worth risking it for?
For sure, in Europe we would retain 90%+ of the powers as opposed to next to nothing and even those can be removed if we are seen to not be doffing our cap often enough.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Trump willhave a fairly golden inheritance rather like Blair in 97, which takes a while to squander. Despite all Trump's rhetoric, job creation and wages have fared well under Obama despite the GFC.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
Re Trump's rhetoric, I remember watching a video of Rachel Maddow talking about a PPP poll, and how it showed just how differently Trump supporters saw the world in comparison to everyone else. Sadly, I can't find the Rachel Maddow video (which is pretty lengthy, given that Maddow loves to give her viewers a history lesson). But I did find this video which pretty much explains the findings of the poll: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fza5GxjVu4
For those who have taken the time to read the CETA, if the UK just asked for that, and negotiated something reasonable re the City, what would be the areas where the UK suffered the most from withdrawing from the Single Market?
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Just stating the fact and check todays yougov poll today re Scots support for TM - and the conservatives 17% lead
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Thanks... seems they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Just stating the fact and check todays yougov poll today re Scots support for TM - and the conservatives 17% lead
Any poll that says Scots support Tories is absolutely and guaranteed bogus. They are hated by the majority.
@DavidHughesPA: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has told @PA he is quitting frontline politics to concentrate on recovering from "a very serious illness".
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Tessy has driven him mad with desire.
You are being silly - she has impressed a whole lot of people this week and on the World stage in Davos.
You may find it hard to believe that we have someone in charge of this Country who is gaining popular support day by day
"Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal."
""The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.
"The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum."
In the end, though it's not my most favoured solution, the move to leave the single market is strategically sound and the clarity offered by this position is better than the alternative of promising something that isn't within the gift of the government to deliver.
All in all, having had a couple of days to mull it over, I understand why the PM has moved to take the UK out of the single market. I also think that if a country leaves the single market and exceeds expectations then the single market is doomed in the long term. It doesn't hold any value if a nation can leave and prosper more out of it than within it.
Theresa May seems to have become an overnight success with her London and Davos speeches wildly acclaimed and she is suddenly looking like a World leader just as Obama leaves the stage.
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
Have you been at the magic mushrooms , you seem to have got hysterical recently and lost the plot completely.
Tessy has driven him mad with desire.
You are being silly - she has impressed a whole lot of people this week and on the World stage in Davos.
You may find it hard to believe that we have someone in charge of this Country who is gaining popular support day by day
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Trump will have a fairly golden inheritance rather like Blair in 97, which takes a while to squander. Despite all Trump's rhetoric, job creation and wages have fared well under Obama despite the GFC.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
So you'll be pleased to know that the weather forecast for tomorrow in DC is heavy rain. The Park Service has relented and allowed collapsible umbrellas for the inauguration. They maintained the ban on selfie sticks however.
Its not the rain, its the nuclear fallout that we have to fear!
Not sure that my stock of tinned food and shotgun shells will last.
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Seems a monstrous amount of money for a 4 bed. Has she considered moving oop north ?
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Thanks... seems they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Interesting. Just heard the leader of SCC on Sky News and he intimated that by social care it doesn't just mean the elderly. He also mentioned those with special needs and, wait for it, children. Well I'm buggered if I'm handing over more of my money to pay for those on benefits. It aint happening.
Jezza opposed to this, thinks Westminster should be responsible for it. My dad says he's voting for him!
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
If mostly wealthy Surrey is in the manure over the state of Social care, then just imagine how it is in more deprived counties and boroughs.
I saw your very kind reply to my apology the other day. It is one thing to apologise, it is another to accept it so graciously.
Re: Italy....terrible events in Abbruzzo last night...truly horrible and terrifying for those involved.
The one thing that we have in common is our love for Italy and our family sheds a tear for all the suffering that has happened in the earthquakes and now this dreadful avalanche
The people and the Country are wonderful and a joy to visit
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Seems a monstrous amount of money for a 4 bed. Has she considered moving oop north ?
I suppose she could work from home most of the time. My dad and I reckon Retford would be a good spot to be as it's pretty quick on the train to London if you need to go into the office.
Our dream is buy back our grandfather's old house in Duckmanton, just down the road from you. But that's a long way off for us at the moment.
Can you imagine if every time @SeanT insulted someone he was as diligent and effusive with his subsequent apologies as @tyson. The poor boy would get nothing else done in his life.
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Seems a monstrous amount of money for a 4 bed. Has she considered moving oop north ?
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
If mostly wealthy Surrey is in the manure over the state of Social care, then just imagine how it is in more deprived counties and boroughs.
It sounds like Surrey are saying the Government has reduced the amount Surrey gets from central government. It's worth saying that a lot of Surrey isn't that wealthy, but because it's so popular with the wealthy (good train links from Woking and Guildford in particular), for the rest of us living here things are somewhat expensive.
This is why the EU should have been ready to offer the UK absolutely anything to stay in, once we leave and show it's not the end of the world that trickle of small stones at the top of the mountain will turn into an unstoppable force. The problem for them is that May hasn't asked for anything particularly unreasonable, there is no way for the EU "punish" the UK by withholding single market membership since we don't want it.
I disagree. Support for the EU has declined in the past 10 years because the economies have been shit (as they have been in the US and Japan, of course). People lash out at the established order when their lives worsen, whether they are to blame or not.
The next 10 years are likely to see much higher developed world economic growth than the last, partly because these things are cyclical (the 70s were shit for almost everyone in the developed world, and the 80s and 90s were great), and partly because the enormous drag from higher energy and commodity prices is gone. (Indeed, I'd argue that cheap energy - whether oil, natural gas or new energy - is likely to be the big driver of the prosperity of the 2020s and 2030s.)
People are insular. If their lives are OK, they won't want to rock the boat.
This is a fabulous time to go skiing in Davos. You drive to Klosters, leave the car in the station car park, and then ski the entire Klosters-Davos ski area, and there's barely a person on the slopes.
It's much, much more fun than a bunch of dreary presentations.
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
Seems a monstrous amount of money for a 4 bed. Has she considered moving oop north ?
Could get a couple of castles for that
I'm defo retiring to Scotland, hopefully still free movement for the English at that point !
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
If mostly wealthy Surrey is in the manure over the state of Social care, then just imagine how it is in more deprived counties and boroughs.
It sounds like Surrey are saying the Government has reduced the amount Surrey gets from central government. It's worth saying that a lot of Surrey isn't that wealthy, but because it's so popular with the wealthy (good train links from Woking and Guildford in particular), for the rest of us living here things are somewhat expensive.
Everywhere has had tbeir funding reduced from Westminster. That is how austerity works.
Surrey has its deprived parts, but much less than a lot of the country.
A little more background on the Surrey situation. The lack of funding means individuals don't have the budget to attend the Alzheimer's centres which have to close through lack of use.
Going by my Facebook friends, Surrey have their work cut out to win that referendum.
I was trying to look into this earlier. Have they been raising council tax by the highest allowed amount each year since 2010? Seems odd to lump it all into one year.
Yes they have (1.99% every year) and my dad is livid. For five years Cameron would appear on TV telling us that the Tories had frozen council tax. "Not in bloody Woking, you haven't" he would say. We had a councillor knock on our door last year and my dad took great pleasure in telling him where to go.
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
If mostly wealthy Surrey is in the manure over the state of Social care, then just imagine how it is in more deprived counties and boroughs.
It sounds like Surrey are saying the Government has reduced the amount Surrey gets from central government. It's worth saying that a lot of Surrey isn't that wealthy, but because it's so popular with the wealthy (good train links from Woking and Guildford in particular), for the rest of us living here things are somewhat expensive.
Everywhere has had tbeir funding reduced from Westminster. That is how austerity works.
Surrey has its deprived parts, but much less than a lot of the country.
Is it more or less than everywhere else? I'd imagine that Surrey struggles to recruit carers and what not because it's so expensive to live here.
Poor old Brendan - struggling to accept that Obama is leaving office with a 60% approval rating and the thanks of most Americans, while Trump enters the White House with a falling approval rating and most Americans opposed to him. Oh well, snowflakes will be snowflakes.
I think a number of Trump supporters are struggling with this actually. The Obamas are leaving on a real high, with many people holding them in incredibly high esteem. Trump, if he carries on the way he has is could make 2020 a real battle for the White House.
Trump will have a fairly golden inheritance rather like Blair in 97, which takes a while to squander. Despite all Trump's rhetoric, job creation and wages have fared well under Obama despite the GFC.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
So you'll be pleased to know that the weather forecast for tomorrow in DC is heavy rain. The Park Service has relented and allowed collapsible umbrellas for the inauguration. They maintained the ban on selfie sticks however.
Its not the rain, its the nuclear fallout that we have to fear!
Not sure that my stock of tinned food and shotgun shells will last.
Tinned shotgun shells - they can be problematic in the microwave
This is a fabulous time to go skiing in Davos. You drive to Klosters, leave the car in the station car park, and then ski the entire Klosters-Davos ski area, and there's barely a person on the slopes.
It's much, much more fun than a bunch of dreary presentations.
Surely people go to the Davos Summit to get pissed in lovely surroundings.
A little more background on the Surrey situation. The lack of funding means individuals don't have the budget to attend the Alzheimer's centres which have to close through lack of use.
Madness in its way....
My grandmother hand Alzheimers. Woking Borough Council told us to sell her house and give them the money so that they could look after her. My parents said no and instead we moved in with her and my mum (a former nurse) looked after her.
Anyway, the Alzheimer's Society offered to look after her one day a week (or something like that) and so the bus picked her up to take her to the centre. Well, my grandmother was "very badly behaved" and so they told my parents that she wasn't welcome again, or as my mum put it, she'd been expelled. The incredulity from my parents was something to behold.
Alzheimer's is often portrayed in the heartbreaking way of people losing their memory. This is very sad, but what isn't talked about is how difficult it is to look after someone who has advanced Alzheimer's. It's remarkable how physically strong my grandmother became. Caring for someone like that is very challenging
Unfortunately the Alzheimer's Society were only interested in dealing with the easy cases where people would sit quietly and not cause them any trouble.
On the Indy / Brexit splits in Scotland in very rough numbers:
About half, voting SNP or Green, support independence. Former Labour voters that support independence have now switched to the SNP and so aren't Labour avrg more.
Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems making up the other half support the Union.
About a third of SNP voters support Brexit. Scottish WWC voters have substantially switched to the SNP. The Labour rump and Lib Dems making up a quarter of the vote are enthusiastic Remainers and blame the Tories (another quarter) for Brexit. Tories were initially split but are now on board.
Now for the next independence referendum. Regardless of how they voted for Brexit the Indy half will vote and campaign for independence with enthusiasm. The Tory quarter will vote and campaign for the Union with enthusiasm. The Labour and LD quarter may vote for the Union but they won't campaign with the Tories. This makes the Union campaign a Tory campaign, which isn't a good position for o it to be in
Personally, I think this makes Indyref2 more likely.
Indyref2 cannot take place without the permission of the Westminster government. Sturgeon may decide to hold one but it would not have legal force.
Interesting crossbreak for Scotland in the Yougov poll - Con 26 Lab 19 SNP 41. If the SNP were to drop to 41% at the next Westminster election they stand to lose quite a few seats.
On the Indy / Brexit splits in Scotland in very rough numbers:
About half, voting SNP or Green, support independence. Former Labour voters that support independence have now switched to the SNP and so aren't Labour avrg more.
Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems making up the other half support the Union.
About a third of SNP voters support Brexit. Scottish WWC voters have substantially switched to the SNP. The Labour rump and Lib Dems making up a quarter of the vote are enthusiastic Remainers and blame the Tories (another quarter) for Brexit. Tories were initially split but are now on board.
Now for the next independence referendum. Regardless of how they voted for Brexit the Indy half will vote and campaign for independence with enthusiasm. The Tory quarter will vote and campaign for the Union with enthusiasm. The Labour and LD quarter may vote for the Union but they won't campaign with the Tories. This makes the Union campaign a Tory campaign, which isn't a good position for o it to be in
Some Scots are voting SNP because they are the closest thing to old Labour and most likely to pursue a particular social agenda within the UK, rather than in support of independence.
According to this poll, a quarter of 2015 SNP voters do not support Scottish independence
Personally, I think this makes Indyref2 more likely.
Indyref2 cannot take place without the permission of the Westminster government. Sturgeon may decide to hold one but it would not have legal force.
I would suggest the one way to make sure Scotland eventually votes for Independence is for Westminster to refuse to allow a referendum.
Sturgeon won't call for one unless polling shows demand for one. And in my opinion, whilst many Scots like to think of themselves as pro-European; they're not actually particularly wedded to the EU. They will wait and see how it turns out.
I voted for Brexit and have no regrets at having done so. Nevertheless it does occur to me that the objectives that Theresa May has in mind and any deal reached on the basis of them would not bind a future government. If the UK were to have a change of government in 2020 or 2025 there would be nothing to prevent that new Administration from then approaching the EU and saying 'We would now like to negotiate re-entry into the Single Market'.
I voted for Brexit and have no regrets at having done so. Nevertheless it does occur to me that the objectives that Theresa May has in mind and any deal reached on the basis of them would not bind a future government. If the UK were to have a change of government in 2020 or 2025 there would be nothing to prevent that new Administration from then approaching the EU and saying 'We would now like to negotiate re-entry into the Single Market'.
And convince the public that it is worth £10bn a year, unlimited immigration, the loss of freedom to deal with the vast majority of the world and so on. It would also have to convince the public to ditch the pound.
It seems fairly probable to me that we will see Norwegian levels of EU rejection not too long after departure. The extreme europhile tendency seems to be 25% at most.
For those who have taken the time to read the CETA, if the UK just asked for that, and negotiated something reasonable re the City, what would be the areas where the UK suffered the most from withdrawing from the Single Market?
I defy anyone to read the 1600 pages of CETA, most of those pages being restrictions and exceptions, much more on the Canadian side than the EU one. Although the delay in agreement nhas been presented as EU obstruction to Canadian reasonableness, Canada is actually quite protectionist. A lot of the protectionism is at the provincial level.
If Britain says whatever, to a lot of the stuff Canada objected to, there's a possibility of bringing in the agreement quicker, although I can't see it being done in a two year timeframe. I suspect there will be several years at least where we are out of the EU but without a full-scale PTA in place. This will probably have a knock on our WTO schedule negotiations. I don't see a transition agreement covering it. There will be several uncomfortable years of uncertainty, I suspect.
I voted for Brexit and have no regrets at having done so. Nevertheless it does occur to me that the objectives that Theresa May has in mind and any deal reached on the basis of them would not bind a future government. If the UK were to have a change of government in 2020 or 2025 there would be nothing to prevent that new Administration from then approaching the EU and saying 'We would now like to negotiate re-entry into the Single Market'.
And convince the public that it is worth £10bn a year, unlimited immigration, the loss of freedom to deal with the vast majority of the world and so on. It would also have to convince the public to ditch the pound.
It would not be bound to call another referendum. Entering the Single Market need not be dependent on adopting the Euro - any more than our continued membership post Brexit would require us to do that.
I'd be surprised if we saw a referendum in this parliament. Maybe 2020-2025 depending on the way Scotland votes in 2020. It seems reasonable to just wait and see what materialises first.
On the Indy / Brexit splits in Scotland in very rough numbers:
About half, voting SNP or Green, support independence. Former Labour voters that support independence have now switched to the SNP and so aren't Labour avrg more.
Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems making up the other half support the Union.
About a third of SNP voters support Brexit. Scottish WWC voters have substantially switched to the SNP. The Labour rump and Lib Dems making up a quarter of the vote are enthusiastic Remainers and blame the Tories (another quarter) for Brexit. Tories were initially split but are now on board.
Now for the next independence referendum. Regardless of how they voted for Brexit the Indy half will vote and campaign for independence with enthusiasm. The Tory quarter will vote and campaign for the Union with enthusiasm. The Labour and LD quarter may vote for the Union but they won't campaign with the Tories. This makes the Union campaign a Tory campaign, which isn't a good position for o it to be in
Some Scots are voting SNP because they are the closest thing to old Labour and most likely to pursue a particular social agenda within the UK, rather than in support of independence.
According to this poll, a quarter of 2015 SNP voters do not support Scottish independence
23% supporting the SNP but not independence is very high. It's typically 10% to 15%, i.e.there's a 90% correlation between supporting independence and intending to vote SNP. This accords with the Holyrood voting intention figures in the same poll. Support for the SNP and independence fluctuate in step.Past voting doesn't guide you here.
The 23% of Labour supporters who would vote for Brexit if they were asked again is much higher than I thought, and the same as for the SNP. I may need to adjust my analysis below.
Firstly, what is the defeat that is being admitted? The message from Tory conference onward has been that we will leave the single market, and quite likely the customs union too. The PM has been clear on this for months; no aim has been surrendered so far. Don't really understand the amputation reference either - is Brexit supposed to be a wound? It flows relatively naturally from the June vote.
Secondly, HSBC et al have a good track record of threatening job moves - remember the mooted plans to relocate HQ to Hong Kong a few years ago. I don't doubt that some jobs will move, but again this is the natural result of Brexit. The govt's approach doesn't make a lot of difference (unless there was a concerted push for a finance-friendly exit, but anything short of full EU membership is a poor outcome for banking).
The third point re timing - please see rebuttal one above. Behind the stated objectives/principles all the main measures WERE known at Con conference. This speech was not "new" and as such didn't represent a delay. No organisation simply stands still for 3 months, and no senior level meetings decide nothing for 12 consecutive weeks running. Government and cabinet are no different. Maybe we are seeing movement now because there were internal disagreements to be ironed out; maybe it's because the feelers were being put out in Europe and elsewhere to gauge what might be on offer for trade and other areas. Whichever, that time certainly would not have been wasted.
Finally, the mood with Europe has been icy since very shortly after June - and there aren't many counter factuals where that wouldn't be the case.
But I am interested - what DO you want to see from negotiations and Brexit? Is it just something that preserves tribe status quo as much as possible, or is there a distinct vision you believe govt should (and might realistically) aim for?
On the Indy / Brexit splits in Scotland in very rough numbers:
About half, voting SNP or Green, support independence. Former Labour voters that support independence have now switched to the SNP and so aren't Labour avrg more.
Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems making up the other half support the Union.
About a third of SNP voters support Brexit. Scottish WWC voters have substantially switched to the SNP. The Labour rump and Lib Dems making up a quarter of the vote are enthusiastic Remainers and blame the Tories (another quarter) for Brexit. Tories were initially split but are now on board.
Now for the next independence referendum. Regardless of how they voted for Brexit the Indy half will vote and campaign for independence with enthusiasm. The Tory quarter will vote and campaign for the Union with enthusiasm. The Labour and LD quarter may vote for the Union but they won't campaign with the Tories. This makes the Union campaign a Tory campaign, which isn't a good position for o it to be in
Some Scots are voting SNP because they are the closest thing to old Labour and most likely to pursue a particular social agenda within the UK, rather than in support of independence.
According to this poll, a quarter of 2015 SNP voters do not support Scottish independence
Comments
The poll today supporting her leaving the single market and her negotiating stance is supported in all regions of the Country including Scotland and surprisingly London.
There is a tide moving her way and it looks as if those who want to remain will need to realise that we have passed the tipping point of staying in the single market and move on themselves.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Explosion
Two ships collided in the harbour, the resultant explosion killed 2000 and injured 9000!
What's more, the public believe the government are being sensible and reasonable, so the blame for problems is set to be laid at the door of the unreasonable EU.
Not by 52-48, but by something like 75-25.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/822149125583970304
Yawn.
Losing Sindy2 would set them back 30+ years.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClsIZoqVEAAbZap.jpg
As they say on Crimewatch, don't have nightmares!
70% of Scots oppose one or both of those positions.
Is succumbing to diktat from Europe, with even less of a voice than at Westminster, worth risking it for?
It's very interesting. I wonder how many Trump voters will come to feel the same as Underwood in the next four years.
I reckon on a couple of years before the damage really shows from his tax cuts for the rich and tarrifs.
"Britain First leader issues threat to 'traitor' MPs upon jail release: 'You will all meet your miserable ends'"
http://tinyurl.com/hqfnux8
I'm torn on the subject. I totally understand that we have an ageing population and we have to pay for social care. But I know this money won't be available for my parents should they need care as they own their own home. And I'm still furious about management of monetary policy in the last four years which has sent properties in Surrey through the roof. My sister's thinking about buying a four bed house for £625k and I've got to the point where I'm thinking she should do it because houses are only going to increase in value. As rcs1000 said this morning, we just can't put up interest rates.
So I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I'm almost certain it will be rejected.
I saw your very kind reply to my apology the other day. It is one thing to apologise, it is another to accept it so graciously.
Re: Italy....terrible events in Abbruzzo last night...truly horrible and terrifying for those involved.
BRAVEHEARTS 45%
You may find it hard to believe that we have someone in charge of this Country who is gaining popular support day by day
No silly answers about new currencies...
So, anyway, when's indyref2 happening?
Not sure that my stock of tinned food and shotgun shells will last.
Jezza opposed to this, thinks Westminster should be responsible for it. My dad says he's voting for him!
The people and the Country are wonderful and a joy to visit
Our dream is buy back our grandfather's old house in Duckmanton, just down the road from you. But that's a long way off for us at the moment.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/822069844782837760
The next 10 years are likely to see much higher developed world economic growth than the last, partly because these things are cyclical (the 70s were shit for almost everyone in the developed world, and the 80s and 90s were great), and partly because the enormous drag from higher energy and commodity prices is gone. (Indeed, I'd argue that cheap energy - whether oil, natural gas or new energy - is likely to be the big driver of the prosperity of the 2020s and 2030s.)
People are insular. If their lives are OK, they won't want to rock the boat.
This is a fabulous time to go skiing in Davos. You drive to Klosters, leave the car in the station car park, and then ski the entire Klosters-Davos ski area, and there's barely a person on the slopes.
It's much, much more fun than a bunch of dreary presentations.
Surrey has its deprived parts, but much less than a lot of the country.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-38634038
A little more background on the Surrey situation. The lack of funding means individuals don't have the budget to attend the Alzheimer's centres which have to close through lack of use.
Madness in its way....
It's obvious, innit.
No fool like a gullible tool..
Anyway, the Alzheimer's Society offered to look after her one day a week (or something like that) and so the bus picked her up to take her to the centre. Well, my grandmother was "very badly behaved" and so they told my parents that she wasn't welcome again, or as my mum put it, she'd been expelled. The incredulity from my parents was something to behold.
Alzheimer's is often portrayed in the heartbreaking way of people losing their memory. This is very sad, but what isn't talked about is how difficult it is to look after someone who has advanced Alzheimer's. It's remarkable how physically strong my grandmother became. Caring for someone like that is very challenging
Unfortunately the Alzheimer's Society were only interested in dealing with the easy cases where people would sit quietly and not cause them any trouble.
https://twitter.com/WantEnglandBack/status/822150246625083393
Mr Meeks and Co's world coming to an end
About half, voting SNP or Green, support independence. Former Labour voters that support independence have now switched to the SNP and so aren't Labour avrg more.
Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems making up the other half support the Union.
About a third of SNP voters support Brexit. Scottish WWC voters have substantially switched to the SNP. The Labour rump and Lib Dems making up a quarter of the vote are enthusiastic Remainers and blame the Tories (another quarter) for Brexit. Tories were initially split but are now on board.
Now for the next independence referendum. Regardless of how they voted for Brexit the Indy half will vote and campaign for independence with enthusiasm. The Tory quarter will vote and campaign for the Union with enthusiasm. The Labour and LD quarter may vote for the Union but they won't campaign with the Tories. This makes the Union campaign a Tory campaign, which isn't a good position for o it to be in
According to this poll, a quarter of 2015 SNP voters do not support Scottish independence
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf
It seems fairly probable to me that we will see Norwegian levels of EU rejection not too long after departure. The extreme europhile tendency seems to be 25% at most.
If Britain says whatever, to a lot of the stuff Canada objected to, there's a possibility of bringing in the agreement quicker, although I can't see it being done in a two year timeframe. I suspect there will be several years at least where we are out of the EU but without a full-scale PTA in place. This will probably have a knock on our WTO schedule negotiations. I don't see a transition agreement covering it. There will be several uncomfortable years of uncertainty, I suspect.
new thread
Coincidentally, Reuters ran a piece about it today: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-idUKKBN1532JB?il=0
I'd be surprised if we saw a referendum in this parliament. Maybe 2020-2025 depending on the way Scotland votes in 2020. It seems reasonable to just wait and see what materialises first.
The 23% of Labour supporters who would vote for Brexit if they were asked again is much higher than I thought, and the same as for the SNP. I may need to adjust my analysis below.
Firstly, what is the defeat that is being admitted? The message from Tory conference onward has been that we will leave the single market, and quite likely the customs union too. The PM has been clear on this for months; no aim has been surrendered so far. Don't really understand the amputation reference either - is Brexit supposed to be a wound? It flows relatively naturally from the June vote.
Secondly, HSBC et al have a good track record of threatening job moves - remember the mooted plans to relocate HQ to Hong Kong a few years ago. I don't doubt that some jobs will move, but again this is the natural result of Brexit. The govt's approach doesn't make a lot of difference (unless there was a concerted push for a finance-friendly exit, but anything short of full EU membership is a poor outcome for banking).
The third point re timing - please see rebuttal one above. Behind the stated objectives/principles all the main measures WERE known at Con conference. This speech was not "new" and as such didn't represent a delay. No organisation simply stands still for 3 months, and no senior level meetings decide nothing for 12 consecutive weeks running. Government and cabinet are no different. Maybe we are seeing movement now because there were internal disagreements to be ironed out; maybe it's because the feelers were being put out in Europe and elsewhere to gauge what might be on offer for trade and other areas. Whichever, that time certainly would not have been wasted.
Finally, the mood with Europe has been icy since very shortly after June - and there aren't many counter factuals where that wouldn't be the case.
But I am interested - what DO you want to see from negotiations and Brexit? Is it just something that preserves tribe status quo as much as possible, or is there a distinct vision you believe govt should (and might realistically) aim for?
First we allowed the SNP on to our patch re: Left politics. Now, we have allowed the Tories to move in on Unionism. This is silliness in the extreme.
There are two options: Hard centre-left politics and independence or,
Hard centre-left politics and remaining part of the Union.
But both are plausible. As long as it is carried out with conviction - not in a half hearted manner.
I prefer the first even though there will be a fight with the SNP because these are the only people who will vote Labour.
The Unionists will ultimately vote Tory.