I think Alistair means the mood is icy between us and the Eurocrats - keeping them happy is obviously much more important than looking after British interests and keeping voters happy.
I can't imagine why....
Without the UK, the EU budget would face a permanent funding gap. We estimate that the ‘Brexit gap’ in the budget would amount to approximately €10 billion per year.
Well that gives us the figure the EU will want from us in return for any crumbs benefits they offer
Yes - that's what we pay nett now. May says she's not prepared to pay a "huge" amount but that will be a key subject of negotiation. It gives us a fair amount of leverage but the Kippers won't like it.
It's interesting that Boris seems to be so much the focus of European anger, when really he is a peripheral figure in the Brexit process, with the PM, Hammond and DD being the ones who are driving this. Could Boris be a useful sacrificial pawn, to be thrown away if things get rough later on?
I don't see much European anger, just uninvited snowflakery on France's behalf from Farron and Corbyn . Verhofstadt has commented, but he is the man who called Cameron "a rat leaving a sinking ship" after his resignation so I don't think we need worry about Boris having changed his attitude for the worse. Boris's simile needed to be about POWs because it needs to be about *innocent* prisoners trying to escape, so referring to Alcatraz wouldn't have worked, and when we think about POW escapes it is entirely natural to think about WW2. Presumably we are still allowed the expression "met his Waterloo"?
It's interesting that Boris seems to be so much the focus of European anger, when really he is a peripheral figure in the Brexit process, with the PM, Hammond and DD being the ones who are driving this. Could Boris be a useful sacrificial pawn, to be thrown away if things get rough later on?
He may even be the opposite. A bit of confected anger to placate voters the feel the government performance so far has been a bit low key, and that not enough arse has been kicked after the referendum result. No real damage will have been done, all the players are (despite the appearance) grownups, and known that some speeches have to be given for domestic consumption.
Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.
One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.
You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;
'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'
'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!
One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....
Germany will pony up the difference IMO.
The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....
The negotiating hand which May has now fully pulled back to herself now we're going 'clean' from the single market is money. Payments.
No deal now means the EU get jack, and all have to stump up the difference. A deal means they could continue to get billions from the UK.
So May does have something to Trade although in the short term the c.£10bn pa savings would probably be sucked up by economic disruption.
Reading Dom Cummings blog its clear these goons had very little positive input into the referendum win - suspect most of their own projects will continue to be failures.
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.
One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.
You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;
'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'
'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!
One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....
Germany will pony up the difference IMO.
The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....
The negotiating hand which May has now fully pulled back to herself now we're going 'clean' from the single market is money. Payments.
No deal now means the EU get jack, and all have to stump up the difference. A deal means they could continue to get billions from the UK.
So May does have something to Trade although in the short term the c.£10bn pa savings would probably be sucked up by economic disruption.
we have 3 things to trade:-
Tariff free access to our markets Some movement of Labour Money
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
If you come from Crewe & "go up Hanley", you will be told your not from round here.
A very good piece. May has clearly concluded that taking on the Tory Right and the Leave Ultras is an impossible task, so we might as well go along with their experiment. Letting them have their fun at the cost of a lost generation is ethically questionable, but the decision has been made. A pleasing side effect is that the 'Liberal Leavers' - with their 'preferred options' and alphabet soup of EEA, EFTA and all the rest - have been humiliated, which at least provides some black humour.
Yes May is weak, weak, weak – instead of courageously taking on the nutters like her predecessor Tory PMs Cameron and Major she has simply capitulated to them. Government for the few not the many, and simply reading the ignorant bile daily from that wing of thinking on here is enough to make anyone shudder. Meantime, those of us who actually work and have businesses to run are left looking for loopholes. I don't agree so much about the liberal Leavers – they have been led up the garden path, just like anyone else who is vaguely normal.
Those wretched abnormal 17m voters... tch
17m voters did not vote for a hard brexit. Simply not the case.
It's abundantly clear that Trump is going to do all he can to smash the US deep state establishment. From tomorrow he'll have the machinery of state at his beck and call to support this. I wonder if any of that will have an impact on the EU. Will their deep state catch any collateral damage? Imagine the potential leaks and revelations that are going to be surfacing over the coming period. I wonder if Trump will share much with our intelligence services. The USA is, despite 8 years of Obama's best efforts, still a huge player in geopolitics and thus far the UK seems to have a strong Brexit ally coming to the White House. Be interesting to see if this alters our negotiating position in any way.
Farage as the British Trump? I don’t see that at all. Strip away the Guardian’s hyperbole on the subject and it looks more like a 3rd rate protest blog site to promote Arron Banks.
There’s very little to see content wise thus far, but we’ll know soon enough.
Whilst I think Brexit will be a disaster, Mrs May's speech was coherent and strong intellectual underpining to it, even if I think she's gone further than some of the EEA Leavers would have wanted her to.
Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.
One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.
You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;
'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'
'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!
One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....
Germany will pony up the difference IMO.
The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....
The negotiating hand which May has now fully pulled back to herself now we're going 'clean' from the single market is money. Payments.
No deal now means the EU get jack, and all have to stump up the difference. A deal means they could continue to get billions from the UK.
So May does have something to Trade although in the short term the c.£10bn pa savings would probably be sucked up by economic disruption.
we have 3 things to trade:-
Tariff free access to our markets Some movement of Labour Money
Our world class intelligence services Our military Not slashing our corporate taxes to the bone and stripping their businesses
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
"Presented as a strategy, this is in reality an admission of defeat."
Politically, it's the continuity Remainers who have lost. They've chased up blind alleys (the Supreme Court case) and given every impression of trying to find a pretext for overturning the vote, including, but not limited to, absurdly selective opinion-poll reading, attempts to relitigate the campaign, extrapolations from Richmond Park (but strangely not Sleaford), and academic exercises that purport to show the Leave majority has literally died off already.
All of which has served to harden the resolve of those in favour of Brexit (whether zealots, converts or reluctant acquiescers) and make "Hard Brexit" [which is of course only an opening negotiation position] much more acceptable than it would have been only 3 months ago.
So, politically, the three months haven't been wasted. It's important to have as much of the country behind this as possible. Even if some will clearly never be reconciled.
Alastair, thanks for the article. For the most part, I agree. However, I don't see this as an admission of defeat. I, for one, as a leaver have always advocated going into the negotiations saying what our red lines are (control of our own laws - hence no ECJ - and immigration, and no contributions save to programs we opt into) and then asking the EU what they are willing to do on free trade given those red line. So to me, following that approach, which is essentially what May is doing, is not an admission of defeat, but just realism.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
Luxembourg is quite good at beggar thy neighbour politics on tax and brass plating isn't it ?
'Westmonster' brought to you by the people whose political career was dedicated to giving more power to Westminster.
Yeah, I noticed that too
What a plonker.
The HUGE difference between Farage and Trump is that Trump used the GOP as a vehicle for his ambitions, the US is as if Farage was Tory leader and PM - something he'll never ever achieve. OK He has May pursuing quite a hard Brexit at the moment, but that isn't the same thing.
Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.
One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.
You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;
'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'
'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!
One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....
Germany will pony up the difference IMO.
The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....
The negotiating hand which May has now fully pulled back to herself now we're going 'clean' from the single market is money. Payments.
No deal now means the EU get jack, and all have to stump up the difference. A deal means they could continue to get billions from the UK.
So May does have something to Trade although in the short term the c.£10bn pa savings would probably be sucked up by economic disruption.
we have 3 things to trade:-
Tariff free access to our markets Some movement of Labour Money
Our world class intelligence services Our military Not slashing our corporate taxes to the bone and stripping their businesses
Plus any number of issues we care to invent along the way. We can always learn from others, even those we don't respect. North Korea and Iran are, and Saddam was, masters in this approach.
I don't think that the delay Alastair refers to has done any real harm - certainly not in respect of our relations with and forthcoming negotiations with our EU friends. It required some time to let the shock of the referendum result subside. It's not as though the delay came out of the fixed Article 50 time limit, which is the real killer. Nor has the economy been suffering in the meantime from the uncertainty (which is a real suprise, but undeniable). So what exactly has been lost by a three-month delay since October?
Yes I agree - tbought this conclusion was strange in an otherwise strong header.
But Alistair Meeks is right that this is quite a climbdown for one faction of leave. He's also right that focusing on immigration is a good move politically IMO.
As for relations... I think Boris offending people must be fairly priced in at this stage? He is surely being kept well out of negotiations and I agree with others who think he might be 'sacrificed' at the right moment.
What Boris should be doing (assuming May has actually given him a meaningful brief and task) should be to develop a new global foreign policy for Britain post-Brexit.
Apart from a couple of speeches I see little evidence he's done that yet.
We were lucky he didn't become PM. And I expect he realises so too.
He is in my view a very poor apology for a FS. He has blown a great chance to match his boss in statesmanship - no amount of jokey buffonery or even classical wit can compensate for the level of failure. We need Osborne as FS and the sooner the better.
The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.
Wow - the Richmond I used to know was never so anti-democratic.
The health Secretarys own council is to ask the public if they wil pay more to fund social care because the government will not.Surrey is to hold a referendum asking for a 15% increase in council tax.Even for Surrey that is a big rise.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.
Wow - the Richmond I used to know was never so anti-democratic.
Well Richmond has pretty much got what it wanted from government since forever. It elected Tory MPs right up to 1997, then switched to a Lib Dem (and was presumably pretty relaxed about Blair), then back to a eco-friendly Tory in 2010 just in time for coalition. Losing doesn't feel great.
A very good piece. May has clearly concluded that taking on the Tory Right and the Leave Ultras is an impossible task, so we might as well go along with their experiment. Letting them have their fun at the cost of a lost generation is ethically questionable, but the decision has been made. A pleasing side effect is that the 'Liberal Leavers' - with their 'preferred options' and alphabet soup of EEA, EFTA and all the rest - have been humiliated, which at least provides some black humour.
Yes May is weak, weak, weak – instead of courageously taking on the nutters like her predecessor Tory PMs Cameron and Major she has simply capitulated to them. Government for the few not the many, and simply reading the ignorant bile daily from that wing of thinking on here is enough to make anyone shudder. Meantime, those of us who actually work and have businesses to run are left looking for loopholes. I don't agree so much about the liberal Leavers – they have been led up the garden path, just like anyone else who is vaguely normal.
Those wretched abnormal 17m voters... tch
17m voters did not vote for a hard brexit. Simply not the case.
Nor were many Remain voters fans of the EU. Simply not the case.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
I love how the "UK is crap" crowd have jumped on both this and Boris as damaging our negotiating prospects just because a few Eurocrats have said it would.
No, it is framing the negotiations. And it is already working.
If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Valls is not included.
I think that assumption's out of date. The latest polling I saw had Macron in the low 20s regardless of who the PS candidate was and Valls was doing no better than the others. Valls' decline is also being reflected in national polls.
Macrons' range in the last poll was 17 (Bayrou & Valls) to 21 (No Bayrou alternative PS)
We may be seeing the high point of Macron, but he has established himself. I wonder if the PS will re-assert at least some dominance in the post-primary peak (as FIllon did).
I found the poll I was thinking of. I slightly overstated the range but not by much.
We're talking about the same poll, these three pictured are sans Bayrou.
Right. My point was that the potential boost to Macron from not facing Valls is minimal, and if you look at the dynamics going forwards, he may be worse off if up against someone who is also seen as bringing something new to the table like Hamon.
I think the main benefit to Macron in not facing Valls is that Valls being centre left is probably closest to Macron than the other contenders.
Having said that, I do take the point that Hamon is the one that appears to have picked up momentum due to the televised debates and that momentum can only increase if he makes it through the Primary.
The May speech, which has been swallowed up by all the stereotypes about leaving the EU, should be seen as the starting point for the real and significant national debate we should be having on the kind of country and society we want to be in the 2020s.
That isn't about Europe or the EU - it's about our place in the world and the kind of place and people we want to be in the future.
Leaving the EU is the easy bit - it's a recognition the process of dragging a reluctant Britain into a politically and economically united Europe has ended and we won't be part of that process (if it continues).
Fine, but that doesn't answer the salient question - what do we want to be ? "Global Britain" is a platitude unless there is significance beyond some vague economic pro-business agenda. Are we, as Global Britain, to be more internationalist and take a more active role in helping resolve global issues such as migration, climate change and the alleviation of illnesses for example ?
I detect a degree of willingness from May to take a more internationalist line but squaring the circle of wanting to be a pro-business pro-growth country with the demands of an ageing population with all that entails isn't easy either. If Global Britain is solely for the entrepreneur or the foreign investor, what does it mean for the rest of us ?
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
The one I've never understood is the one where the President and Vice President can't come from the same state.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
I love how the "UK is crap" crowd have jumped on both this and Boris as damaging our negotiating prospects just because a few Eurocrats have said it would.
No, it is framing the negotiations. And it is already working.
"If you don't give us what we want, our domestic opponents will be forced to agree to things that have been politically impossible for generations."
It's abundantly clear that Trump is going to do all he can to smash the US deep state establishment. From tomorrow he'll have the machinery of state at his beck and call to support this. I wonder if any of that will have an impact on the EU. Will their deep state catch any collateral damage? Imagine the potential leaks and revelations that are going to be surfacing over the coming period. I wonder if Trump will share much with our intelligence services. The USA is, despite 8 years of Obama's best efforts, still a huge player in geopolitics and thus far the UK seems to have a strong Brexit ally coming to the White House. Be interesting to see if this alters our negotiating position in any way.
Trump's only interested in Trump, oh and the US (a bit).
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
The one I've never understood is the one where the President and Vice President can't come from the same state.
I wonder if that came from the over-sized impact Virginia had on early Presidential elections?
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
The one I've never understood is the one where the President and Vice President can't come from the same state.
I can see why it was the rule originally. The whole point of the US system is to give States equal power whilst at the same time limiting the power of the federal government. It is easy you see how having both the President and VP from the same State might have been considered to be giving too much power to one State. Not sure it applies today though.
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
The one I've never understood is the one where the President and Vice President can't come from the same state.
Ostensibly debunked here, where the rule is said to be that an elector cannot vote for two candidates ffrom his own state.
Are we, as Global Britain, to be more internationalist and take a more active role in helping resolve global issues such as migration, climate change and the alleviation of illnesses for example ?
We were more effective in those areas of internationalism when we were part of the EU and were able to affect the direction of a whole continent and through that the world. By ourselves our power to influence others is very limited.
Where we can be global Britain is in trading as freely as possible with the rest of the world and being as open as possible to migration, so that our soft power remains strong. Its not clear that this is what those voting Leave think they signed up for however.
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF
I have no doubt we'll conclude trade deals with the Anglosphere very quickly after we leave the EU. The kind of deals we can conclude with the likes of Russia, China, Japan and Brazil may be more interesting.
Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
Yep - it must be that. It couldn't possibly be because some of us think that leaving the single market will cause a lot of harm for very little gain.
Your lack of faith in the Uk as a country to adapt and make the most of new opportunities outwith the EU which now we are free from the protectionist trade cartel is depressing.
I don't see how it helps us to make it more expensive and time consuming to trade with our single biggest export market. That will be the case whether there are tariffs or not. All that's left to be decided is how much more expensive and time consuming it will be. It has not been the EU holding us back from trading with the rest of the world effectively - other EU countries manage it, after all - it has been us.
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF
With what was announced the other day and now this, tt would appear there is plenty of flexibility to the line ‘no official negotiations can start until 2 years after A50 is activated’.
The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.
Wow - the Richmond I used to know was never so anti-democratic.
It is democracy in action. If Labour had won the last General Election democratically, voters in Richmond park would have been upset and opposed its policies with all means at their disposal. That is democracy.
This meme that it is undemocratic not to simply rollover and accept the consequences of a vote is frankly ridiculous. The tyranny of the majority in action. "Just shut up and accept the result". No.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
But you've seen through it so not so invisible after all
A typically excellent, fair, and elegantly written, piece by Alastair. What a contrast with the reactionary, jingoistic bilge and backslapping we see daily from the below-the-line commentators on here, which has put many liberal-minded centrists off the site.
Rofl - that's a keeper.
Yes I think I saw some polling on it the other day! Lord above
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
Bobajob has always had a healthy disrespect for reality
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF
I have no doubt we'll conclude trade deals with the Anglosphere very quickly after we leave the EU. The kind of deals we can conclude with the likes of Russia, China, Japan and Brazil may be more interesting.
There will not be a quick deal with the US unless it is one that the US dictates. Given that Canada now has a deal with the EU we can hopefully just inherit that.
Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt ""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum". He is not from round here, says it all.
Jesus, if this is anywhere near true it's an insular, parochial place. No wonder Hunt wants out.
Continues to amuse me the amount of contempt there is in the Labour party about their voters from 'unfashionable' locations. Are you Emily Thornberry i wonder?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
The one I've never understood is the one where the President and Vice President can't come from the same state.
Ostensibly debunked here, where the rule is said to be that an elector cannot vote for two candidates ffrom his own state.
From your link
But in a close election, the Electoral College quirk could matter (as well as the hoops people might try to work around it).
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.
Wow - the Richmond I used to know was never so anti-democratic.
It is democracy in action. If Labour had won the last General Election democratically, voters in Richmond park would have been upset and opposed its policies with all means at their disposal. That is democracy.
This meme that it is undemocratic not to simply rollover and accept the consequences of a vote is frankly ridiculous. The tyranny of the majority in action. "Just shut up and accept the result". No.
And when are the good burghers going to march on Downing street. I always think the phrase 'by all means at their disposal' to be potentially quite anti-democratic. Where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.
Wow - the Richmond I used to know was never so anti-democratic.
It is democracy in action. If Labour had won the last General Election democratically, voters in Richmond park would have been upset and opposed its policies with all means at their disposal. That is democracy.
This meme that it is undemocratic not to simply rollover and accept the consequences of a vote is frankly ridiculous. The tyranny of the majority in action. "Just shut up and accept the result". No.
And when are the good burghers going to march on Downing street. I always think the phrase 'by all means at their disposal' to be potentially quite anti-democratic. Where do you draw the line?
Marching on Downing Street is OK but a waste of time as I've explained to my children. I was one of the three million who marched in London opposing the war in Iraq and were ignored.
I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.
"Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
Then you've seen more than anyone since the negotiations are yet to begin.
Oh sorry. I was just responding to @Ishmael_Z's comment:
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Having just finished Kelly's lovely book on the 'Great Mortality', I can share that the Black Death was actually down to the marmot.
I thought it was down to Fleas Yersinia pestis?
Yes, but enabled by the evil steppe marmot. I recommend John Kelly's book btw, it's a good read, quite horrifying in places, and if nothing else, will cheer you up .
Alastair, thanks for the article. For the most part, I agree. However, I don't see this as an admission of defeat. I, for one, as a leaver have always advocated going into the negotiations saying what our red lines are (control of our own laws - hence no ECJ - and immigration, and no contributions save to programs we opt into) and then asking the EU what they are willing to do on free trade given those red line. So to me, following that approach, which is essentially what May is doing, is not an admission of defeat, but just realism.
There's probably a lot you agree with in this analysis:
This Guardian story about handwringing Labour MPs is pitiful. If they want to vote against A50 invocation, then they should do so. Corbyn should be their example.
What Boris should be doing (assuming May has actually given him a meaningful brief and task) should be to develop a new global foreign policy for Britain post-Brexit.
Apart from a couple of speeches I see little evidence he's done that yet.
We were lucky he didn't become PM. And I expect he realises so too.
He is in my view a very poor apology for a FS. He has blown a great chance to match his boss in statesmanship - no amount of jokey buffonery or even classical wit can compensate for the level of failure. We need Osborne as FS and the sooner the better.
The letters 'FS' go with Osborne very well, but not like that.
F1: there are two Bottas special markets on Ladbrokes.
In 2014 and 2015 I think Rosberg won about 5 and 6 races in each year. Therefore, the 6 on Bottas to win either 4 or 5 (or more) both look worthy of consideration.
The 3.5 to outscore Hamilton looks rubbish when he (Bottas) is 5 for the title). If he beats Hamilton and the consensus assumption of Mercedes supremacy is accurate, he gets the title.
There's also 1.33 for him *not* to finish in the top 2. If you backed him each way for the title (ie top 3), that creates a small way to guarantee profit, or lovely profit if he's third (and therefore both bets win). Personally, not backing it as the margins are too small.
The bets I'll be considering most are the 6 (for both) to either win 4 races or 5+ over the season.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
Then you've seen more than anyone since the negotiations are yet to begin.
Oh sorry. I was just responding to @Ishmael_Z's comment:
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Maybe he has it wrong.
Was a piece of pedantry as feeble as that really worth responding to? I said trying to negotiate, not negotiating. "Trying to" rather clearly includes things said before the actual negotiations and intended to have a bearing on the negotiations.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
Then you've seen more than anyone since the negotiations are yet to begin.
Oh sorry. I was just responding to @Ishmael_Z's comment:
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Maybe he has it wrong.
Was a piece of pedantry as feeble as that really worth responding to? I said trying to negotiate, not negotiating. "Trying to" rather clearly includes things said before the actual negotiations and intended to have a bearing on the negotiations.
"actually are trying to negotiate a deal" is what you said.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
Then you've seen more than anyone since the negotiations are yet to begin.
Oh sorry. I was just responding to @Ishmael_Z's comment:
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Maybe he has it wrong.
Was a piece of pedantry as feeble as that really worth responding to? I said trying to negotiate, not negotiating. "Trying to" rather clearly includes things said before the actual negotiations and intended to have a bearing on the negotiations.
"actually are trying to negotiate a deal" is what you said.
I'm not sure that Phil Hammond is being very sensible re-emphasising this point:
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic... - in other words, in the punishment beating scenario which Boris vividly warned against yesterday. This looks like an example of a shared hymn sheet.
Yes, it's becoming clear. The government expects Brexit to be nasty, so public opinion is being softened up to a) blame the EU when it happens b) accept tax cuts for oligarchs and austerity for the masses as mitigation. Brexit will be a wonderful invisibility cloak for the forces of the Right.
I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me.
The only negotiation we've had so far has been our lead negotiator (The PM) surrender instantly to those who have said we can't be a member of the single market.
Then you've seen more than anyone since the negotiations are yet to begin.
Oh sorry. I was just responding to @Ishmael_Z's comment:
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/19/arron-banks-launches-breitbart-style-site-westmonster
No deal now means the EU get jack, and all have to stump up the difference. A deal means they could continue to get billions from the UK.
So May does have something to Trade although in the short term the c.£10bn pa savings would probably be sucked up by economic disruption.
Tariff free access to our markets
Some movement of Labour
Money
There’s very little to see content wise thus far, but we’ll know soon enough.
Our military
Not slashing our corporate taxes to the bone and stripping their businesses
If somehow despite out best efforts political retribution were to triumph over economic logic, and we don’t get a fair deal....we will have to do whatever was necessary to ensure the continued competitiveness in those circumstances. That’s not a threat. It is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jan/19/davos-2017-theresa-may-addresses-the-world-economic-forum-business-live
Of course, he is right, it is a statement of the obvious. However, if I were an EU politician hearing that, I'd be thinking: "Good point - when we strike a deal, we need to make 100% sure that it includes enforceable provisions to prevent the UK competing with us on tax."
Politically, it's the continuity Remainers who have lost. They've chased up blind alleys (the Supreme Court case) and given every impression of trying to find a pretext for overturning the vote, including, but not limited to, absurdly selective opinion-poll reading, attempts to relitigate the campaign, extrapolations from Richmond Park (but strangely not Sleaford), and academic exercises that purport to show the Leave majority has literally died off already.
All of which has served to harden the resolve of those in favour of Brexit (whether zealots, converts or reluctant acquiescers) and make "Hard Brexit" [which is of course only an opening negotiation position] much more acceptable than it would have been only 3 months ago.
So, politically, the three months haven't been wasted. It's important to have as much of the country behind this as possible. Even if some will clearly never be reconciled.
What a plonker.
But Alistair Meeks is right that this is quite a climbdown for one faction of leave. He's also right that focusing on immigration is a good move politically IMO.
As for relations... I think Boris offending people must be fairly priced in at this stage? He is surely being kept well out of negotiations and I agree with others who think he might be 'sacrificed' at the right moment.
"'Goldman Shmoldman' was the exact phrase used."
No, it is framing the negotiations. And it is already working.
Having said that, I do take the point that Hamon is the one that appears to have picked up momentum due to the televised debates and that momentum can only increase if he makes it through the Primary.
The May speech, which has been swallowed up by all the stereotypes about leaving the EU, should be seen as the starting point for the real and significant national debate we should be having on the kind of country and society we want to be in the 2020s.
That isn't about Europe or the EU - it's about our place in the world and the kind of place and people we want to be in the future.
Leaving the EU is the easy bit - it's a recognition the process of dragging a reluctant Britain into a politically and economically united Europe has ended and we won't be part of that process (if it continues).
Fine, but that doesn't answer the salient question - what do we want to be ? "Global Britain" is a platitude unless there is significance beyond some vague economic pro-business agenda. Are we, as Global Britain, to be more internationalist and take a more active role in helping resolve global issues such as migration, climate change and the alleviation of illnesses for example ?
I detect a degree of willingness from May to take a more internationalist line but squaring the circle of wanting to be a pro-business pro-growth country with the demands of an ageing population with all that entails isn't easy either. If Global Britain is solely for the entrepreneur or the foreign investor, what does it mean for the rest of us ?
I find Jobabob's reaction is the one detached from reality. In many US jurisdictions, there is a residency requirement before you can stand as a candidate. There are merits to such requirements. If you are 'not from around here', why should you have a right to represent the people 'from around here'?
@EdConwaySky: Australian finance minister tells me Australia has already started preliminary talks w/ UK abt a trade deal. “It will be done quickly.” #WEF
https://order-order.com/2017/01/19/davos-fashion-report/
Where we can be global Britain is in trading as freely as possible with the rest of the world and being as open as possible to migration, so that our soft power remains strong. Its not clear that this is what those voting Leave think they signed up for however.
Suits and trainers are as bad as people who wear dental floss thin ties.
I do endorse Dave's suede boots, I'm pretty much wearing loafers these days.
Personally I blame the bacteria.
This meme that it is undemocratic not to simply rollover and accept the consequences of a vote is frankly ridiculous. The tyranny of the majority in action. "Just shut up and accept the result". No.
FleasYersinia pestis?But in a close election, the Electoral College quirk could matter (as well as the hoops people might try to work around it).
I have dropped the eyeliner though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUHk2RSMCS8
Wikileaks
WSJ: CIA head Brennan back-peddles on Trump 'dirty dossier' claiming he hasn't even read it https://t.co/nrZGcSdqhn
I suspect the authorities like well ordered marches and petitions because it allows the masses to let off steam without threatening those in charge.
"Where do you draw the line?" You draw the line at legal means. Polls tax riots are not OK. Judicial reviews are OK. Encouraging your MP to vote against the Government is OK.
"I am working on the hypothesis that people who look, talk and act as if they are trying to negotiate a deal, probably actually are trying to negotiate a deal. Possibly naive, but it works for me."
Maybe he has it wrong.
https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/2017/01/a-qa-with-prime-economics-jeremy-smith-on-brexit-immigration-and-democracy.html
Doesn't always work.
https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/822075558905442304
In 2014 and 2015 I think Rosberg won about 5 and 6 races in each year. Therefore, the 6 on Bottas to win either 4 or 5 (or more) both look worthy of consideration.
The 3.5 to outscore Hamilton looks rubbish when he (Bottas) is 5 for the title). If he beats Hamilton and the consensus assumption of Mercedes supremacy is accurate, he gets the title.
There's also 1.33 for him *not* to finish in the top 2. If you backed him each way for the title (ie top 3), that creates a small way to guarantee profit, or lovely profit if he's third (and therefore both bets win). Personally, not backing it as the margins are too small.
The bets I'll be considering most are the 6 (for both) to either win 4 races or 5+ over the season.