politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech

Sort of on topic

Shadow cabinet MPs 'considering' voting against article 50

Several Labour MPs, representing areas that voted remain, are torn over the party’s reaction to Theresa May’s speech

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/shadow-cabinet-mps-considering-voting-against-article-50-labour-brexit-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

The good ship RMS Brexitania seems to be successfully navigating waters infested by the EU-boat menace

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sort of on topic

Shadow cabinet MPs 'considering' voting against article 50

Several Labour MPs, representing areas that voted remain, are torn over the party’s reaction to Theresa May’s speech

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/shadow-cabinet-mps-considering-voting-against-article-50-labour-brexit-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

There was a reaction?

A typically excellent, fair, and elegantly written, piece by Alastair. What a contrast with the reactionary, jingoistic bilge and backslapping we see daily from the below-the-line commentators on here, which has put many liberal-minded centrists off the site.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"And it’s not as though those three months have been valuably or even neutrally spent"

Alastair, how do you know? Do we think May was personally able to have given this three months ago and decided not to?

It must take months just to plant all the bugs across the foreign and trade ministries of our EU chums.

Lol. Literally one minute before this new thread was published I wrote this...

"Discussions are now largely focussing on the divorce proceedings from the EU, as one would naturally expect.

But painting a picture of what a future independent UK will look like, and how it will use its powers, is an interesting one. And a very important one.

Given how the biggest concerns about Brexit are that we lose influence and we lose economic wealth and growth, I'd love to have a national conversation about this or - failing that - a similar visionary speech by May, as to just what HMG thinks we'll do on that.

I have my own ideas, but so far we have Global Britain and a promised industrial strategy. Of course, much of that will hinge off just what exactly the UK-EU relationship ends up at, but by no means all of it.

As far as I can tell HMG's current plans are to go hell for leather in striking trade deals left, right and centre, and promote UK trade globally, but linked to an industrial strategy that recognises our strategic strengths, and aligns our education and immigration policies to them. Without dropping our existing rights and worker protections.

I've seen a bit less on foreign policy, except snippets such as we will still be a strong partner on regional European security, promote free trade worldwide and something about "Empires of the mind" from Boris, which I assume is the UK proactively promoting its values worldwide.

A fair point to judge the success of this - or whether its on track to be just as/even more than successful as the old model - is probably in 10-15 years time, I'd say roundabout 2030. "

If May had delivered this speech last October she'd have been accused of rushing it without consulting business or the city. Now the government has done so it's deemed 'too late' and 'three precious months have been lost' - for what exactly? Surely those precious months have been spent consulting - and coming to the conclusion that Single market membership was no longer an option.

Meanwhile, Anthony wells, citing polling evidence concludes:

Britons think Theresa May's vision of Brexit would be good for the country and believe no deal is better than a bad one

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/

The mood is icy? - Ho ho ho…!

Meanwhile, the mood at home is somewhat warm and balmy.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/822032747984289792/photo/1

SimonStClare said:

The mood is icy? - Ho ho ho…!

Meanwhile, the mood at home is somewhat warm and balmy.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/822032747984289792/photo/1

You and Carlotta are messing this up with facts. But how do you feel?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fpt

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is Surrey a real county? Or did it go the way of Middlesex?

It is very much a real county, thank you very much! What did they teach you a Fen Poly?

Only real proper counties should be allowed to play first class cricket, thus Yorkshire won last year's county championship

Strange how Yorkshire competes as one county. They should split it in to North, West and East Yorkshire (South Yorkshire, which is not a proper county, would be excluded).

I was at uni with a guy from Howden. I used to point out to him that he was born in Humberside and would, therefore, never be a proper Yorkshireman. He didn't like me pointing this out.

Ah yes Humberside, they have a better university than Cowley Tech.

Whoever said Cowley Tech originally, please note I am stealing that.

I believe it was CarlottaVance who came up with Cowley Tech.

She too is an alumnus of Couldn't get in to Fen Poly so had to slum it at Cowley Tech.

I nicked it while I studied there in the seventies......so its at least four decades old...

TGOHF said:

Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.

I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?

Yep - it must be that. It couldn't possibly be because some of us think that leaving the single market will cause a lot of harm for very little gain.

"making it very clear to all her ministers that talk demeaning people we are about to negotiate with is a sackable offence. "

A pity the EU won't give out the same instruction.

Ooops! I forgot - they are not elected officials and probably can't be sacked anyway.

TGOHF said:

Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.

I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?

That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.

TGOHF said:

I think Alistair means the mood is icy between us and the Eurocrats - keeping them happy is obviously much more important than looking after British interests and keeping voters happy.

I can't imagine why....

Without the UK, the EU budget would face a permanent funding gap.
We estimate that the ‘Brexit gap’ in the budget would amount to approximately €10 billion per year.

http://www.delorsinstitut.de/2015/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/BrexitEUBudget-HaasRubio-JDI-JDIB-Jan17.pdf

French Presidential race.

Valls to crash out of the running in Socialist Primary?

Valls, who has untl recently been favourite to progress through the Socialist Primary appears to be in serious trouble following the first two televised debates. Two polls in the past couple of days have put him on 26-28% compared with 30-40% before the debates.

As we head into the final debate this evening ahead of Sunday's first round vote, the latest poll has him neck and neck with Hamon, with Montebourg only 4% behind. It is not inconceivable, looking at those figures, that he might even fail to make the second round. Even if he does make it through to the final head to head, it does not look good for him as the projected polling forecasts for the final round have generally seen him adding only 12-13% to his first round polling. That is not going to be anywhere near enough to see him home on the second round if the 26 -28% forecast in the latest polls are correct.

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Valls is not included.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF said:

Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.

I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?

Yep - it must be that. It couldn't possibly be because some of us think that leaving the single market will cause a lot of harm for very little gain.

Big difference between 'leaving the single market' - suggesting we won't trade with the EU and yet 'having access to the single market' - which is what, at the minimum, will result.

Loads of countries trade with the EU (far more than trade within the EU). By leaving the EU, the UK can negotiate a different set of tariffs (if not free trade) than we currently have to impose (and send most of the money raised to Brussels).

BudG said:

French Presidential race.

Valls to crash out of the running in Socialist Primary?

Valls, who has untl recently been favourite to progress through the Socialist Primary appears to be in serious trouble following the first two televised debates. Two polls in the past couple of days have put him on 26-28% compared with 30-40% before the debates.

As we head into the final debate this evening ahead of Sunday's first round vote, the latest poll has him neck and neck with Hamon, with Montebourg only 4% behind. It is not inconceivable, looking at those figures, that he might even fail to make the second round. Even if he does make it through to the final head to head, it does not look good for him as the projected polling forecasts for the final round have generally seen him adding only 12-13% to his first round polling. That is not going to be anywhere near enough to see him home on the second round if the 26 -28% forecast in the latest polls are correct.

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Macron is not included.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017

Interesting, thanks. What are the main differences between these candidates other than the fact that Valls has been PM and I guess is more well known?

Jobabob said:

A typically excellent, fair, and elegantly written, piece by Alastair. What a contrast with the reactionary, jingoistic bilge and backslapping we see daily from the below-the-line commentators on here, which has put many liberal-minded centrists off the site.

I would prefer the article to have some facts rather than opinions: it is mainly subjective not objective.

PlatoSaid said:

SimonStClare said:

The mood is icy? - Ho ho ho…!

Meanwhile, the mood at home is somewhat warm and balmy.

ttps://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/822032747984289792/photo/1

I'd rather read Breibart.

Fixed.

Stark_Dawning said:

A very good piece. May has clearly concluded that taking on the Tory Right and the Leave Ultras is an impossible task, so we might as well go along with their experiment. Letting them have their fun at the cost of a lost generation is ethically questionable, but the decision has been made. A pleasing side effect is that the 'Liberal Leavers' - with their 'preferred options' and alphabet soup of EEA, EFTA and all the rest - have been humiliated, which at least provides some black humour.

You remind me of Colonel Cathcart in Catch-22, always worrying about 'black eyes' and 'feathers in my cap'. As a liberal leaver, I have not (apparently) got the result I would have preferred. This is disappointing.

I was disappointed by 13 years of Labour government, the three-day week, the ERM, negative equity in the 1990s, the fact that, for some inexplicable reason, Michelle Pfeiffer never showed up naked on my doorstep and so on. Life is like that. I shall watch Mrs May's progress with great interest, while getting on with more interesting things in my own life.

https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/822067777091543040

It's interesting that Boris seems to be so much the focus of European anger, when really he is a peripheral figure in the Brexit process, with the PM, Hammond and DD being the ones who are driving this. Could Boris be a useful sacrificial pawn, to be thrown away if things get rough later on?

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/822067777091543040

Just look at the rating Blair achieved. Where did it all go wrong?

Dude, we're leaving.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/822069447003439104

TGOHF said:

TheValiant said:

I would really like to know what REMAINers plans post referendum would be.

Ignore the referendum result? Claim it was merely advisory and not implement BrExit?

I really do.

They wanted May to go for Cameron's deal with bells on. A Brexit-lite where we changed our membership title and fiddled around the edges a bit - whilst sticking 2 fingers up at the voters who expressed their preference to leave.

To be fair that was the widely assumed desire of the government, a lot of us, myself included, thought that the government would look for a fudge. How otherwise could we remain in the single market? But if we had listened more carefully we might have twigged a bit earlier that Brexit means Brexit was not as inane as it sounded.

CarlottaVance said:

You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;

'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!

In name only. So far May is proposing to give up nothing but free movement, and adherence to the institutions that make the single market work. In terms of the practical operation of the market she wants absolutely minimal change.

It's a position that still means that control over the outcome is entirely out of our hands.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/822067777091543040

Just look at the rating Blair achieved. Where did it all go wrong?

Not moving Brown to the Foreign Office in 2001, and getting involved in Mesopotamia.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sort of on topic

Shadow cabinet MPs 'considering' voting against article 50

Several Labour MPs, representing areas that voted remain, are torn over the party’s reaction to Theresa May’s speech

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/shadow-cabinet-mps-considering-voting-against-article-50-labour-brexit-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

I predicted this very thing yesterday.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Whilst I think Brexit will be a disaster, Mrs May's speech was coherent and strong intellectual underpining to it, even if I think she's gone further than some of the EEA Leavers would have wanted her to.

Much further.

Are you having Bregrets?

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think that the delay Alastair refers to has done any real harm - certainly not in respect of our relations with and forthcoming negotiations with our EU friends. It required some time to let the shock of the referendum result subside. It's not as though the delay came out of the fixed Article 50 time limit, which is the real killer. Nor has the economy been suffering in the meantime from the uncertainty (which is a real suprise, but undeniable). So what exactly has been lost by a three-month delay since October?

One or two people on here have lost almost any sense of reality?

I repeat again that Richard Nabavi, whilst clearly disappointed with the result of the referendum has been one of the most balanced and reasonable commentators on here over the last few months. He certainly gives me hope that there can be some meaningful reconciliation between Remain and Leave supporters over time.

Edit. I meant to add that I think the same can be said of Damien Green. He was one of the strongest ideological Remain campaigners but has been gracious in his acceptance of the result and his desire to make it work.

BudG said:

tlg86 said:

BudG said:

French Presidential race.

Valls to crash out of the running in Socialist Primary?

Valls, who has untl recently been favourite to progress through the Socialist Primary appears to be in serious trouble following the first two televised debates. Two polls in the past couple of days have put him on 26-28% compared with 30-40% before the debates.

As we head into the final debate this evening ahead of Sunday's first round vote, the latest poll has him neck and neck with Hamon, with Montebourg only 4% behind. It is not inconceivable, looking at those figures, that he might even fail to make the second round. Even if he does make it through to the final head to head, it does not look good for him as the projected polling forecasts for the final round have generally seen him adding only 12-13% to his first round polling. That is not going to be anywhere near enough to see him home on the second round if the 26 -28% forecast in the latest polls are correct.

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Macron is not included.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017

Interesting, thanks. What are the main differences between these candidates other than the fact that Valls has been PM and I guess is more well known?

Sorry @tlg86, I am not sufficiently au fait with French left wing politics to give a breakdown of the differences. Perhaps someone else can answer that. Yes, Valls is better known, but having been PM perhaps comes with more baggage.

We could do with a rating system using our own lefty politicians. Perhaps something ranging from Leicester Liz to Jezza.

tlg86 said:

BudG said:

French Presidential race.

Valls to crash out of the running in Socialist Primary?

Valls, who has untl recently been favourite to progress through the Socialist Primary appears to be in serious trouble following the first two televised debates. Two polls in the past couple of days have put him on 26-28% compared with 30-40% before the debates.

As we head into the final debate this evening ahead of Sunday's first round vote, the latest poll has him neck and neck with Hamon, with Montebourg only 4% behind. It is not inconceivable, looking at those figures, that he might even fail to make the second round. Even if he does make it through to the final head to head, it does not look good for him as the projected polling forecasts for the final round have generally seen him adding only 12-13% to his first round polling. That is not going to be anywhere near enough to see him home on the second round if the 26 -28% forecast in the latest polls are correct.

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Macron is not included.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017

Interesting, thanks. What are the main differences between these candidates other than the fact that Valls has been PM and I guess is more well known?

Very interesting, more fool me for not following properly.

No doubt some PBers have seen this, but just in case, this interview with Angela Rayner on HufPo, where she emotionally defends SureStart and adult further education is powerful:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/angela-rayner-labour-tony-blair_uk_587f8e70e4b005cc588b7224

CarlottaVance said:

If May had delivered this speech last October she'd have been accused of rushing it without consulting business or the city. Now the government has done so it's deemed 'too late' and 'three precious months have been lost' - for what exactly? Surely those precious months have been spent consulting - and coming to the conclusion that Single market membership was no longer an option.
Meanwhile, Anthony wells, citing polling evidence concludes:
Britons think Theresa May's vision of Brexit would be good for the country and believe no deal is better than a bad one
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/

Well, yes, I think no deal would be better than a bad deal. But why then are the Tory headbangers pushing for a bad deal?

" Cauterised Brexit "
Isn't it time these histrionics stopped ?

Richard_Tyndall said:

felix said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think that the delay Alastair refers to has done any real harm - certainly not in respect of our relations with and forthcoming negotiations with our EU friends. It required some time to let the shock of the referendum result subside. It's not as though the delay came out of the fixed Article 50 time limit, which is the real killer. Nor has the economy been suffering in the meantime from the uncertainty (which is a real suprise, but undeniable). So what exactly has been lost by a three-month delay since October?

One or two people on here have lost almost any sense of reality?

Edit. I meant to add that I think the same can be said of Damien Green. He was one of the strongest ideological Remain campaigners but has been gracious in his acceptance of the result and his desire to make it work.

Loved his comment on Newsnight. 'Yes, I was a Remainer. But I'm also a democrat.'

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

glw said:

TGOHF said:

Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.

I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?

That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.

One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.

You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;

'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'

'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!

One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....

Germany will pony up the difference IMO.

The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....

Further regarding NUttall as the UKIP candidate. I said it would be a wrong choice, he is a Scouser and there is more emnity against Liverpool at the Brittania Stadium than even United. Interesting extract from BBC re Tristram Hunt
""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.

And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum".
He is not from round here, says it all.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

BudG said:

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Valls is not included.

I think that assumption's out of date. The latest polling I saw had Macron in the low 20s regardless of who the PS candidate was and Valls was doing no better than the others. Valls' decline is also being reflected in national polls.

Macrons' range in the last poll was 17 (Bayrou & Valls) to 21 (No Bayrou alternative PS)

We may be seeing the high point of Macron, but he has established himself. I wonder if the PS will re-assert at least some dominance in the post-primary peak (as FIllon did).

I found the poll I was thinking of. I slightly overstated the range but not by much.

CarlottaVance said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

glw said:

TGOHF said:

Surprising article as I was expecting lavish praise on Mrs May from Mr Meeks.

I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?

That was the prevailing assumption about what would happen in the negotiations. We would be begging the EU to let us keep the single market by fudging some sort of immigration compromise. Instead May shot their fox, as I keep repeating. This has annoyed some EU bigwigs and Remainers.

One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.

You can see how the internal EU-crat logic works;

'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'

'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!

One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....

Germany will pony up the difference IMO.

The paper explores how the removal of the UK contribution automatically exacerbates the 'contributor/recipient' difference as net contributors get 'rebates' on the UK rebate - which of course disappears....

Not something I'd even considered. Thanks for highlighting.

I'm going to have to disagree with the proposition that the delay of these three months has been a waste or an error. There are two key processes that the extra time has permitted:

1.) Worst case scenario planning. In particular with respect to City institutions, the lack of guidance has positively forced management teams down the route of planning for the worst case loss of membership of the single market/customs union scenario, and how they mitigate the impact. Most have found that their own internal experts' forecast of Armageddon to be overstated. Their plans and views are now based on reason, not emotion.

2.) Emotional acceptance. The vacuum of policy/direction from the government has allowed many people to come to terms with where we are, and are going as a country. In a peculiar way, the more die hard Remainers have acted as emotional outriders for this - by constantly delivering the message of extreme doom, they've prepared people to be pleasantly surprised for an outcome that is unlikely anywhere near as disastrous.

As a consequence, Mrs May's speech, delivered now, gets a far more positive reception than it would three months ago, when it would be attacked as extreme from most if not all sides. The Prime Minister's tendency to Merkel can be frustrating, but in this case I think has been decidedly to her advantage.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

BudG said:

If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Valls is not included.

I think that assumption's out of date. The latest polling I saw had Macron in the low 20s regardless of who the PS candidate was and Valls was doing no better than the others. Valls' decline is also being reflected in national polls.

Macrons' range in the last poll was 17 (Bayrou & Valls) to 21 (No Bayrou alternative PS)

We may be seeing the high point of Macron, but he has established himself. I wonder if the PS will re-assert at least some dominance in the post-primary peak (as FIllon did).

I found the poll I was thinking of. I slightly overstated the range but not by much.

We're talking about the same poll, these three pictured are sans Bayrou.

Right. My point was that the potential boost to Macron from not facing Valls is minimal, and if you look at the dynamics going forwards, he may be worse off if up against someone who is also seen as bringing something new to the table like Hamon.

Pulpstar said:

The mood is icy between us and europe, meanwhile it is very warm back home.

I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.

It is still icy in Richmond Park. My children, who are not politically minded, are much more upset than I am (and I'm upset), and so are their friends. My wife is incandescent. "Let's march on Downing Street" etc etc.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/822067777091543040

Is that Osborne's new moniker?

Could be tim's!