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First like Trump.

I wonder when we'll get Lib Dem/Ukip crossover?

With the new fashion for dismissing the POTUS comments on UK trade deals I thought it would be interesting to look at the threads on 22nd April 2016, the day Obama made his "Back of the queue" statement...there were none... is this right?

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/page/3/

Mr Sion Simon will be telling women of The West Midlands to take back control, unless I am very much mistaken.

https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

I'm not buying "little has changed".

rkrkrk said:

Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
Or an error?

They were the only pollster to have Labour ahead, it was during the aftermath of the budget/IDS resigning, Dave's ratings cratering, and the Tories tearing lumps out of each other over the EU.

A few weeks later Labour won the local council elections, which were inconsistent with the other pollsters having the Tories massively ahead.

brokenwheel said:

rkrkrk said:

Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
Or an error?

They did, but were the only pollster to show a Labour lead. House effect?

But they have them behind the rest of the time... So doesn't seem to be consistent.
Still seems quite an outlier... uKiP on 20% also.

Edit: ignore this...

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: Wehrlein joins Sauber:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38489054

justin124 said:

Tissue_Price said:

Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

I'm not buying "little has changed".

In the 1959 -64 anf 1987 -92 Parliaments that did not really happen until year 3.

In 92 the Tories won more votes than they ever had done in an election.

Next!

Wow, I thought the Sion Simons slogan was a parody.

Andy Street is going to win, isn't he. Praise be!

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

TheScreamingEagles said:

Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465

Isn't that STV? (The voting system, not the TV Channel!)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465

It's always better to do this when one is in the ascendant rather than failing. It then looks less like desperation and more like principle.

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Weren't a number of the hard core remainers still officially 'undecided' in April?

@LadPolitics: Don't want to worry any Kiwis, but just been asked for odds on a Magnitude 8 Earthquake happening in NZ in the next 2 months

williamglenn said:

MTimT said:

The sub-title seems to hide more than it says. It strikes me for UKIP to be down and LD up, there must have been a fair bit of churn UKIP/Con, UKIP/Lab, Lab/LD, Con/LD and maybe even some Con/Lab.

That seems like a logical deduction. I think a corollary is that the Jan 2017 Tory coalition is more fragile than the Jan 2016 Tory coalition.

But way better than the March 2016 Tory Coalition!

Lib Dems at William Hill, Copeland by election 20-1 on Saturday, 9 - 1 today. UKIP 8-1. Same betting trend as Stoke Central, although there today the Cons seem right out, well back in fourth place,

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Alastair Meeks?

The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant .

I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.

It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

"It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."

https://twitter.com/coral/status/821002634861678593

https://twitter.com/williamhill/status/821003257833259008

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Alastair Meeks?

The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant .

I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.

It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

"It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."

I'm sure we all have a back catalogue of posts wed be embarrassed about...

I'm reminded of a Nietzsche quote:

"I have done that" says my memory. "I cannot have done that" says my pride, and remains adamant. At last - - memory yields.

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Alastair Meeks?

The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant .

I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.

It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

"It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."

That's one word away from being spot on.

isam said:

One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

"Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "

No idea. It's quite the metaphor which makes me guess... SeanT?

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Alastair Meeks?

The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant .

I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.

It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

"It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."

I'm sure we all have a back catalogue of posts wed be embarrassed about...

I'm reminded of a Nietzsche quote:

"I have done that" says my memory. "I cannot have done that" says my pride, and remains adamant. At last - - memory yields.

Indeed; at least comments here & elsewhere are comparatively obscure. It must be dreadfully difficult to have to live down (live with) a nationally-published article like poor Sion Simon.

Good afternoon, everyone.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/820979613010632704

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

"Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "

No idea. It's quite the metaphor which makes me guess... SeanT?

JackW... although this line is technically true

"As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU."

Full transcript of Trump's stream of consciousness incoherent rambling interview up:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/full-transcript-of-interview-with-donald-trump-5d39sr09d

There's no way he's going to last a full term......

Good news on Bottas.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good news on Bottas.

He's still 6.4 on Betfair for the title if anyone wants it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/motor-sport/event/28033195/market?marketId=1.128510447

https://twitter.com/stephen_collins/status/816624741041795073

williamglenn said:

As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

"I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

"My positions are also known," she said.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

German hegemony confirmed.

SeanT said:

Talking of China, which we weren't, everyone knows I am bullish on its prospects, and have been so for ten years on this site, predicting its rise to power and preeminence when others scoffed.

However THIS gives me pause.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38587580

A five year reduction in life expectancy? People trapped in their apartments?

China will still outstrip America in sheer size, but there are the seeds of great discontent here.

A few weeks ago I linked to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1-Y6OzVH7s

Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

As an aside, another problem facing China is the massive building bubble, and the fact that large parts of their infrastructure are not, to be polite, built to code.

williamglenn said:

As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

"I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

"My positions are also known," she said.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

Weren't you a couple of weeks ago telling us Trump and the EU were going to be best buddies?

brokenwheel said:

williamglenn said:

As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

"I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

"My positions are also known," she said.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

Weren't you a few weeks ago telling us Trump and the EU were going to be best buddies?

What I said was that Trump would prove to be an agent of European integration, that he would heap praise on Merkel after their first meeting, and that Brexit isn't important to him.

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

isam said:

Which PBer said this last April?

"A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

Alastair Meeks?

The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant .

I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.

It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

"It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."

Given what atrocious winners Leave have been, how can anyone doubt the truth of that assessment?

Though admittedly it's not the prediction I would want engraved on my tombstone.

I think you just consider us (super cauliflower cheese scrambled eggs) atrocious!

The churn figures on the latest YouGov look similar to those from before Christmas, albeit that Labour is doing marginally less woefully in Southern England. The Tory 2015 vote continues to look much the most solid. Much of the blue half of Ukip has also joined/gone back to Mrs May's side. The 2015 Lib Dem vote is the softest, but they appear to be stealing enough 2015 Labour voters to compensate for their losses, plus a little more on top.

The latter continues a trend whereby a large proportion of 2015 Lib Dem voters have defected to both Labour and the Tories, but this is slightly more than cancelled out by movement almost entirely from Labour - most likely of soft centrist and centre-left voters who have managed to forgive the yellows for the Coalition, and have gone back to them because of Corbyn and/or Europe.

This, in turn, suggests why the Liberal Democrat recovery hasn't been more pronounced, despite their positioning as the Party of Remain in what is a pretty uncrowded marketplace in England. Firstly, Continuity Remain and Leave means Leave are both positions with limited salience for the electorate. I contend that most voters feel that they have already had their say on the EU and have moved on, even if they don't agree that the verdict reaches was correct. Moreover, even amongst those voters more strongly committed to the Remain cause, it is not necessarily the issue that is foremost in their minds. Many Remain voters will still back the Tories in a Westminster VI poll as their favoured Government, or at any rate the Keep Labour Out option, despite not agreeing with them over Europe.

Secondly, the Lib Dems are a soft centre-left party, and one which might help put Jeremy Corbyn into power in a Hung Parliament at that. This is not particularly attractive to those 2015 Tory voters. This leaves the Lib Dems fishing in only one large pool of voters, and when Labour starts to really sink in the polls then the Lib Dems discover that Labour's remaining supporters become progressively harder and harder to win over. Much of the social conservative, traditional white working class vote is more amenable to being wooed by Ukip than the Lib Dems, and the more committed Lefties are still disinclined to trust them.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

There's some wonderful comments on that thread.
I like this one from our legendary Sean T. Turns out that he was spot on about Cameron's Europhillia as we have subsequently had confirmed.

"What amazes me about Cameron's grotesque behaviour is that he does not seem to care if he ruins his own "legacy", it's all about winning the referendum. He must know he will be loathed and reviled by his own party and many beyond, with his hideous fellatio of those who threaten us, but that doesn't matter, as long as we stay in the EU.

He is expending all his political capital, and indeed overdrawing on it, to achieve an IN.

I can only conclude that he is passionately europhile, on a scale that makes Ken Clarke look like Nige Farage. Which also means he is a fraud and a liar."

At the start of the year there were some Conservative Brexiters on here who were convinced that Cameron was going to declare for Leave. How any Conservative voter could have been blind to Cameron's Europhilia totally escapes me but then he'd been keeping up the paper thin charade from the leadership election onwards.

Black_Rook said:

The churn figures on the latest YouGov look similar to those from before Christmas, albeit that Labour is doing marginally less woefully in Southern England. The Tory 2015 vote continues to look much the most solid. Much of the blue half of Ukip has also joined/gone back to Mrs May's side. The 2015 Lib Dem vote is the softest, but they appear to be stealing enough 2015 Labour voters to compensate for their losses, plus a little more on top.

The latter continues a trend whereby a large proportion of 2015 Lib Dem voters have defected to both Labour and the Tories, but this is slightly more than cancelled out by movement almost entirely from Labour - most likely of soft centrist and centre-left voters who have managed to forgive the yellows for the Coalition, and have gone back to them because of Corbyn and/or Europe.

This, in turn, suggests why the Liberal Democrat recovery hasn't been more pronounced, despite their positioning as the Party of Remain in what is a pretty uncrowded marketplace in England. Firstly, Continuity Remain and Leave means Leave are both positions with limited salience for the electorate. I contend that most voters feel that they have already had their say on the EU and have moved on, even if they don't agree that the verdict reaches was correct. Moreover, even amongst those voters more strongly committed to the Remain cause, it is not necessarily the issue that is foremost in their minds. Many Remain voters will still back the Tories in a Westminster VI poll as their favoured Government, or at any rate the Keep Labour Out option, despite not agreeing with them over Europe.

Secondly, the Lib Dems are a soft centre-left party, and one which might help put Jeremy Corbyn into power in a Hung Parliament at that. This is not particularly attractive to those 2015 Tory voters. This leaves the Lib Dems fishing in only one large pool of voters, and when Labour starts to really sink in the polls then the Lib Dems discover that Labour's remaining supporters become progressively harder and harder to win over. Much of the social conservative, traditional white working class vote is more amenable to being wooed by Ukip than the Lib Dems, and the more committed Lefties are still disinclined to trust them.

.... and yet the Council and By-election results don't seem to back up your assertions.

Meanwhile, in other news, we have the separate YouGov on public attitudes to immigration, which is yet more terrible news for Labour:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tjg0yoww6u/InternalResults_170112_Immigration.pdf

Highlights:

* Majorities want immigration rules tightened, and this applies to every regional subset including London (61%) and Scotland (60%.)

* Of those surveyed, a total of 69% wanted the rules tightened, 16% left as they are, and only 6% wanted looser regulation (less than the 8% of DKs.) This survey at least suggests that Theresa May is onto something with her emphasis on immigration - and, presumably, she wants the Conservatives to get a grip before Ukip (or something nastier) comes along and does it for them.

* There are also absolute majorities for cutting immigration amongst all four main party affiliations, and all age groups except the 18-24s (and even amongst them 48% wanted tighter controls.)

* The public were also asked about Labour's position on the issue, and voters were as baffled as the party leadership itself appears to be confused. 31% thought Labour wanted more immigration, 19% thought they wanted things left as they are, 13% thought they wanted the rules tightened, and 38% had no idea what Labour's position was at all.

Personally, I was surprised only that the 31% figure wasn't even higher than it actually was...

williamglenn said:

As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

"I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

"My positions are also known," she said.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

I do find it entertaining to watch your attempts to reconcile your European federalism with Trump's election as President.

"38% had no idea what Labour's position was at all"

That seems to include Corbyn.

@paulwaugh: No10 spkswomn: "I'm not aware that the Prime Minister has spoken to Michael Gove [since his Trump meeting]".
Relations still in deep freeze.

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: No10 spkswomn: "I'm not aware that the Prime Minister has spoken to Michael Gove [since his Trump meeting]".
Relations still in deep freeze.

I suppose Gove' still too close to Cameron