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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little h

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little has changed in the battle between CON & LAB

After this morning’s YouGov poll came out I was asked on Twitter for the comparative numbers for a year ago and other points during 2016. The data is in the chart above and shows quite extraordinary that Labour and the Conservatives have almost the same numbers this month that they had a year ago.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    First like Trump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited January 2017
    Distant second like labour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    I wonder when we'll get Lib Dem/Ukip crossover?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    With the new fashion for dismissing the POTUS comments on UK trade deals I thought it would be interesting to look at the threads on 22nd April 2016, the day Obama made his "Back of the queue" statement...there were none... is this right?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/page/3/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    Lib Dems regaining their NOTA crown as well as picking up the pro-Remain crowd?

    I wonder what the January 2018 YouGov will show
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Mr Sion Simon will be telling women of The West Midlands to take back control, unless I am very much mistaken.

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tlg86 said:

    I wonder when we'll get Lib Dem/Ukip crossover?

    In seats ? Never.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

    I'm not buying "little has changed".
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    They did, but were the only pollster to show a Labour lead. House effect?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    They were the only pollster to have Labour ahead, it was during the aftermath of the budget/IDS resigning, Dave's ratings cratering, and the Tories tearing lumps out of each other over the EU.

    A few weeks later Labour won the local council elections, which were inconsistent with the other pollsters having the Tories massively ahead.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dr_spyn said:

    Mr Sion Simon will be telling women of The West Midlands to take back control, unless I am very much mistaken.

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    well done you get the brownie points.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    edited January 2017
    brokenwheel said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    They did, but were the only pollster to show a Labour lead. House effect?
    But they have them behind the rest of the time... So doesn't seem to be consistent.
    Still seems quite an outlier... uKiP on 20% also.

    Edit: ignore this...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    John_M said:

    The book's thesis is that Merkel's East German origins meant she doesn't regard FoM as a political principle but as an article of faith and therefore non-negotiable. Nothing she's said since June 23rd has indicated any moment of epiphany.

    Why should she be interested in compromising a fundamental principle to mitigate the self-inflicted effects of maladministration in a member state?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    There were three Yougov polls at that time giving Labour a lead.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    They were the only pollster to have Labour ahead, it was during the aftermath of the budget/IDS resigning, Dave's ratings cratering, and the Tories tearing lumps out of each other over the EU.

    A few weeks later Labour won the local council elections, which were inconsistent with the other pollsters having the Tories massively ahead.
    Thanks. Yes I remember now... Still shows what a difference infighting can make to the public.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: Wehrlein joins Sauber:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38489054
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Tissue_Price said:

    Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

    I'm not buying "little has changed".

    In the 1959 -64 anf 1987 -92 Parliaments that did not really happen until year 3.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    brokenwheel said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Did the yougov poll really show labour ahead in April!?
    Or an error?

    They did, but were the only pollster to show a Labour lead. House effect?
    But Yougov has now swung the other way and has been producing the biggest Tory leads for a while. This morning's poll shows some sign of it coming into line with other pollsters with a lead of 11% - down from 17% in early December.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    Yougov also had high UKIP which wasn't replicated in the locals. More likely what was happening was a better response rate for UKIP-minded voters in the run up to the EU referendum which was distorting the VI.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    justin124 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

    I'm not buying "little has changed".

    In the 1959 -64 anf 1987 -92 Parliaments that did not really happen until year 3.
    In 92 the Tories won more votes than they ever had done in an election.

    Next!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited January 2017
    Well done @dr_spyn for exposing the hypocrite that is Sion Simon.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Of course, year 2 is when the Opposition are supposed to eclipse the Government and build an opinion-poll lead.

    I'm not buying "little has changed".

    In the 1959 -64 anf 1987 -92 Parliaments that did not really happen until year 3.
    In 92 the Tories won more votes than they ever had done in an election.

    Next!
    Indeed so - but they also lost 40 seats compared with 87 despite having ditched Thatcher.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    I think the shock waves have made a lot of voters shake their heads and postpone any rethinking - "Dunno how I'll vote, we'll have to see how it all works out" it quite a common bemused comment.

    Off topic; a right-wing CDU MP (Erika Steinbach) has resigned the whip and is making AfD-friendly noises, although she's not standing again in the coming eleciton.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Wow, I thought the Sion Simons slogan was a parody.

    Andy Street is going to win, isn't he. Praise be!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

    https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    That's one of my weekend threads sorted out.

    Is AV the only way to stop Scottish Independence ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    edited January 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

    https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465

    Isn't that STV? (The voting system, not the TV Channel!)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

    https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465

    Isn't that STV? (The voting system, not the TV Channel!)
    Yes
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awesome, I endorse this, if only he had done this when he was First Minister

    https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/820991876681662465

    It's always better to do this when one is in the ascendant rather than failing. It then looks less like desperation and more like principle.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Old threads are enormously entertaining whomever made a blunder.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    The sub-title seems to hide more than it says. It strikes me for UKIP to be down and LD up, there must have been a fair bit of churn UKIP/Con, UKIP/Lab, Lab/LD, Con/LD and maybe even some Con/Lab.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Weren't a number of the hard core remainers still officially 'undecided' in April?

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    FOX NEWS ALERT: Oman says it has accepted 10 inmates from Gitmo https://t.co/WmsaHuNhh6

    Is Obama shipping them off so he can claim he closed Gitmo? Why Oman?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    MTimT said:

    The sub-title seems to hide more than it says. It strikes me for UKIP to be down and LD up, there must have been a fair bit of churn UKIP/Con, UKIP/Lab, Lab/LD, Con/LD and maybe even some Con/Lab.

    That seems like a logical deduction. I think a corollary is that the Jan 2017 Tory coalition is more fragile than the Jan 2016 Tory coalition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    @LadPolitics: Don't want to worry any Kiwis, but just been asked for odds on a Magnitude 8 Earthquake happening in NZ in the next 2 months
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    PlatoSaid said:

    FOX NEWS ALERT: Oman says it has accepted 10 inmates from Gitmo https://t.co/WmsaHuNhh6

    Is Obama shipping them off so he can claim he closed Gitmo? Why Oman?

    I'm going to Oman next week! Hope they're keeping the gitmo inmates somewhere safe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    williamglenn said:

    MTimT said:

    The sub-title seems to hide more than it says. It strikes me for UKIP to be down and LD up, there must have been a fair bit of churn UKIP/Con, UKIP/Lab, Lab/LD, Con/LD and maybe even some Con/Lab.

    That seems like a logical deduction. I think a corollary is that the Jan 2017 Tory coalition is more fragile than the Jan 2016 Tory coalition.
    But way better than the March 2016 Tory Coalition!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 941
    Lib Dems at William Hill, Copeland by election 20-1 on Saturday, 9 - 1 today. UKIP 8-1. Same betting trend as Stoke Central, although there today the Cons seem right out, well back in fourth place,
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited January 2017
    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Found it. @Scott_P
    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1025359/#Comment_1025359
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    It won't happen

    Another accurate prediction :smile:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/coral/status/821002634861678593
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    It won't happen

    Another accurate prediction :smile:
    Haha, yes true!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/williamhill/status/821003257833259008
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

    "Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

    The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

    Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

    Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    I'm sure we all have a back catalogue of posts wed be embarrassed about...

    I'm reminded of a Nietzsche quote:

    "I have done that" says my memory. "I cannot have done that" says my pride, and remains adamant. At last - - memory yields.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    williamglenn said:

    John_M said:

    The book's thesis is that Merkel's East German origins meant she doesn't regard FoM as a political principle but as an article of faith and therefore non-negotiable. Nothing she's said since June 23rd has indicated any moment of epiphany.

    Why should she be interested in compromising a fundamental principle to mitigate the self-inflicted effects of maladministration in a member state?
    You are Jean-Claude Juncker and I claim my €5m.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    That's one word away from being spot on.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    Well

    @minefornothing 31m31 minutes ago
    IMF RAISES UK 2017 GDP FORECAST BACK TO 1.5% FROM 1.1%

    They'll raise it 2% before April.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,412
    isam said:

    One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

    "Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

    The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

    Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

    Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "

    No idea. It's quite the metaphor which makes me guess... SeanT?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/williamhill/status/821003257833259008

    Payday!!!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    I'm sure we all have a back catalogue of posts wed be embarrassed about...

    I'm reminded of a Nietzsche quote:

    "I have done that" says my memory. "I cannot have done that" says my pride, and remains adamant. At last - - memory yields.
    Indeed; at least comments here & elsewhere are comparatively obscure. It must be dreadfully difficult to have to live down (live with) a nationally-published article like poor Sion Simon.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    There's some wonderful comments on that thread.
    I like this one from our legendary Sean T. Turns out that he was spot on about Cameron's Europhillia as we have subsequently had confirmed.

    "What amazes me about Cameron's grotesque behaviour is that he does not seem to care if he ruins his own "legacy", it's all about winning the referendum. He must know he will be loathed and reviled by his own party and many beyond, with his hideous fellatio of those who threaten us, but that doesn't matter, as long as we stay in the EU.

    He is expending all his political capital, and indeed overdrawing on it, to achieve an IN.

    I can only conclude that he is passionately europhile, on a scale that makes Ken Clarke look like Nige Farage. Which also means he is a fraud and a liar."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    https://twitter.com/afp/status/820979613010632704
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    I'm sure we all have a back catalogue of posts wed be embarrassed about...

    I'm reminded of a Nietzsche quote:

    "I have done that" says my memory. "I cannot have done that" says my pride, and remains adamant. At last - - memory yields.
    Indeed; at least comments here & elsewhere are comparatively obscure. It must be dreadfully difficult to have to live down (live with) a nationally-published article like poor Sion Simon.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    Good afternoon Anne. Over the years I've learned to accept that I'm often wrong; that it's not the end of the world to admit ones error then ask forgiveness, and that a spurious certainty about future events is usually misplaced. It's surprisingly cathartic and I commend this approach to the PB community ;).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

    "Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

    The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

    Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

    Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "

    No idea. It's quite the metaphor which makes me guess... SeanT?
    JackW... although this line is technically true

    "As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU."
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    The next thing to keep an eye on in Stormont is whether Mr Bell speaks out and if so, what he says.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Full transcript of Trump's stream of consciousness incoherent rambling interview up:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/full-transcript-of-interview-with-donald-trump-5d39sr09d

    There's no way he's going to last a full term......
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    CSPAN just tweeted this link to the Trump elevator webcam with the title Day 26 :lol:

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?421921-1/watch-pool-feed-trump-tower-lobby
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    "guerrilla war" is overstating it - "9 month and counting long toddler tantrum" more like...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    Lolz
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good news on Bottas.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    There's some wonderful comments on that thread.
    I like this one from our legendary Sean T. Turns out that he was spot on about Cameron's Europhillia as we have subsequently had confirmed.

    "What amazes me about Cameron's grotesque behaviour is that he does not seem to care if he ruins his own "legacy", it's all about winning the referendum. He must know he will be loathed and reviled by his own party and many beyond, with his hideous fellatio of those who threaten us, but that doesn't matter, as long as we stay in the EU.

    He is expending all his political capital, and indeed overdrawing on it, to achieve an IN.

    I can only conclude that he is passionately europhile, on a scale that makes Ken Clarke look like Nige Farage. Which also means he is a fraud and a liar."

    Still proud of this, which Mike turned into a thread.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Which was based on this tweet

    @georgeeaton: Vote Leave spokesmen confirm stance: free trade with no free movement, no budget contributions and no supremacy of EU law.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good news on Bottas.

    He's still 6.4 on Betfair for the title if anyone wants it.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/motor-sport/event/28033195/market?marketId=1.128510447
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    CarlottaVance said:

    Full transcript of Trump's stream of consciousness incoherent rambling interview up:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/full-transcript-of-interview-with-donald-trump-5d39sr09d

    There's no way he's going to last a full term......

    I refuse to read it, his ramblings have already debiggened my intellect.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/stephen_collins/status/816624741041795073
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    edited January 2017
    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    williamglenn said:

    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

    German hegemony confirmed.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    williamglenn said:

    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

    Well, of course. That's what the UK has decided it wants and Mrs Merkel is accepting reality.

    I hope the UK and the EU can find an amicable future relationship but already it is incorrect to speak of the "28 member states" when addressing the EU's future relationships.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,969
    SeanT said:

    Talking of China, which we weren't, everyone knows I am bullish on its prospects, and have been so for ten years on this site, predicting its rise to power and preeminence when others scoffed.

    However THIS gives me pause.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38587580

    A five year reduction in life expectancy? People trapped in their apartments?

    China will still outstrip America in sheer size, but there are the seeds of great discontent here.

    A few weeks ago I linked to this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1-Y6OzVH7s

    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    As an aside, another problem facing China is the massive building bubble, and the fact that large parts of their infrastructure are not, to be polite, built to code.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/820997599452950530
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just noticed that Mary Wilson turned 101 on January 12th!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,251
    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    One more and that will do... I am sure I have similar skeletons!

    "Indeed yes. it's reason why LEAVE are so angry. Having secured a referendum that they thought would probably never happen, they genuinely believed they had a chance.

    The truth is they never did. Cameron is a ruthless politician and just as with AV and SINDY he was prepared to use all the tools available to a PM to secure his objective. As I indicated years back - whilst Cameron was PM the UK would never leave the EU.

    Cameron necessarily dangled the referendum carrot and then made a stew of LEAVE, who let's be frank have willingly put themselves in the pot, turned on the cooker, taken in the heady smell of a fine meal and suddenly realised they were the main course on the menu.

    Hope is a wonderful thing until it's lost and LEAVE have lost. "

    No idea. It's quite the metaphor which makes me guess... SeanT?
    This sounds like TSE to me.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    williamglenn said:

    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

    Weren't you a couple of weeks ago telling us Trump and the EU were going to be best buddies?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,806
    JosiasJessop said:



    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    A 9 year old (me) could not see his outstretched hand in front of his face.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    brokenwheel said:

    williamglenn said:

    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

    Weren't you a few weeks ago telling us Trump and the EU were going to be best buddies?
    What I said was that Trump would prove to be an agent of European integration, that he would heap praise on Merkel after their first meeting, and that Brexit isn't important to him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    Given what atrocious winners Leave have been, how can anyone doubt the truth of that assessment?

    Though admittedly it's not the prediction I would want engraved on my tombstone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Which PBer said this last April?

    "A convincing win for Remain, and the Brexiteers "accept the settled will of the British people" and STFU.

    It won't happen, but it's technically possible."

    Alastair Meeks?
    The "settled will of the British people" has Alastair's trademark pomposity, but I don't recall him ever using a tawdry 'STFU', he's polite even when petulant. RIchard Nabavi? Or, based on his previous meanderings over the European landscape, Seant ;).
    I hope we get the answer either way. I'm sticking to Alistair Meeks as my guess.
    It wasn't Alastair... although he did say this!!

    "It was apparent before the outset of the campaign that Leave would be the most atrocious losers if they lost. They would conclude that the public got it wrong and they were cheated. The idea that they might have put a hopelessly incoherent case and frankly appeared a bit mad would not occur to them. So they will carry on with a guerrilla war."
    Given what atrocious winners Leave have been, how can anyone doubt the truth of that assessment?

    Though admittedly it's not the prediction I would want engraved on my tombstone.
    I think you just consider us (super cauliflower cheese scrambled eggs) atrocious!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    geoffw said:

    JosiasJessop said:



    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    A 9 year old (me) could not see his outstretched hand in front of his face.
    It's estimated that the 1952 London smog killed 4,000 people. The first Clean Air act followed four years later.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The churn figures on the latest YouGov look similar to those from before Christmas, albeit that Labour is doing marginally less woefully in Southern England. The Tory 2015 vote continues to look much the most solid. Much of the blue half of Ukip has also joined/gone back to Mrs May's side. The 2015 Lib Dem vote is the softest, but they appear to be stealing enough 2015 Labour voters to compensate for their losses, plus a little more on top.

    The latter continues a trend whereby a large proportion of 2015 Lib Dem voters have defected to both Labour and the Tories, but this is slightly more than cancelled out by movement almost entirely from Labour - most likely of soft centrist and centre-left voters who have managed to forgive the yellows for the Coalition, and have gone back to them because of Corbyn and/or Europe.

    This, in turn, suggests why the Liberal Democrat recovery hasn't been more pronounced, despite their positioning as the Party of Remain in what is a pretty uncrowded marketplace in England. Firstly, Continuity Remain and Leave means Leave are both positions with limited salience for the electorate. I contend that most voters feel that they have already had their say on the EU and have moved on, even if they don't agree that the verdict reaches was correct. Moreover, even amongst those voters more strongly committed to the Remain cause, it is not necessarily the issue that is foremost in their minds. Many Remain voters will still back the Tories in a Westminster VI poll as their favoured Government, or at any rate the Keep Labour Out option, despite not agreeing with them over Europe.

    Secondly, the Lib Dems are a soft centre-left party, and one which might help put Jeremy Corbyn into power in a Hung Parliament at that. This is not particularly attractive to those 2015 Tory voters. This leaves the Lib Dems fishing in only one large pool of voters, and when Labour starts to really sink in the polls then the Lib Dems discover that Labour's remaining supporters become progressively harder and harder to win over. Much of the social conservative, traditional white working class vote is more amenable to being wooed by Ukip than the Lib Dems, and the more committed Lefties are still disinclined to trust them.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    John_M said:

    geoffw said:

    JosiasJessop said:



    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    A 9 year old (me) could not see his outstretched hand in front of his face.
    It's estimated that the 1952 London smog killed 4,000 people. The first Clean Air act followed four years later.
    "The official number of dead after the fog lifted on December 9th was 4,000, though more recent reports (taking into account those who died after it lifted among other factors) rank the death toll at closer to 12,000."

    http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2016-12-16/the-crown-discover-the-real-great-smog-that-brought-london-to-a-standstill
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    There's some wonderful comments on that thread.
    I like this one from our legendary Sean T. Turns out that he was spot on about Cameron's Europhillia as we have subsequently had confirmed.

    "What amazes me about Cameron's grotesque behaviour is that he does not seem to care if he ruins his own "legacy", it's all about winning the referendum. He must know he will be loathed and reviled by his own party and many beyond, with his hideous fellatio of those who threaten us, but that doesn't matter, as long as we stay in the EU.

    He is expending all his political capital, and indeed overdrawing on it, to achieve an IN.

    I can only conclude that he is passionately europhile, on a scale that makes Ken Clarke look like Nige Farage. Which also means he is a fraud and a liar."

    At the start of the year there were some Conservative Brexiters on here who were convinced that Cameron was going to declare for Leave. How any Conservative voter could have been blind to Cameron's Europhilia totally escapes me but then he'd been keeping up the paper thin charade from the leadership election onwards.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    edited January 2017
    CDU former-minister says Hammond's threats are an expression of British cluelessness.

    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article161196973/Die-Drohungen-sind-Ausdruck-britischer-Ratlosigkeit.html
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Black_Rook said:

    The churn figures on the latest YouGov look similar to those from before Christmas, albeit that Labour is doing marginally less woefully in Southern England. The Tory 2015 vote continues to look much the most solid. Much of the blue half of Ukip has also joined/gone back to Mrs May's side. The 2015 Lib Dem vote is the softest, but they appear to be stealing enough 2015 Labour voters to compensate for their losses, plus a little more on top.

    The latter continues a trend whereby a large proportion of 2015 Lib Dem voters have defected to both Labour and the Tories, but this is slightly more than cancelled out by movement almost entirely from Labour - most likely of soft centrist and centre-left voters who have managed to forgive the yellows for the Coalition, and have gone back to them because of Corbyn and/or Europe.

    This, in turn, suggests why the Liberal Democrat recovery hasn't been more pronounced, despite their positioning as the Party of Remain in what is a pretty uncrowded marketplace in England. Firstly, Continuity Remain and Leave means Leave are both positions with limited salience for the electorate. I contend that most voters feel that they have already had their say on the EU and have moved on, even if they don't agree that the verdict reaches was correct. Moreover, even amongst those voters more strongly committed to the Remain cause, it is not necessarily the issue that is foremost in their minds. Many Remain voters will still back the Tories in a Westminster VI poll as their favoured Government, or at any rate the Keep Labour Out option, despite not agreeing with them over Europe.

    Secondly, the Lib Dems are a soft centre-left party, and one which might help put Jeremy Corbyn into power in a Hung Parliament at that. This is not particularly attractive to those 2015 Tory voters. This leaves the Lib Dems fishing in only one large pool of voters, and when Labour starts to really sink in the polls then the Lib Dems discover that Labour's remaining supporters become progressively harder and harder to win over. Much of the social conservative, traditional white working class vote is more amenable to being wooed by Ukip than the Lib Dems, and the more committed Lefties are still disinclined to trust them.

    .... and yet the Council and By-election results don't seem to back up your assertions.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    .
    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    Talking of China, which we weren't, everyone knows I am bullish on its prospects, and have been so for ten years on this site, predicting its rise to power and preeminence when others scoffed.

    (snipped)

    China will still outstrip America in sheer size, but there are the seeds of great discontent here.

    (visual snipped)

    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    As an aside, another problem facing China is the massive building bubble, and the fact that large parts of their infrastructure are not, to be polite, built to code.
    The visibility may have been as bad/worse, but were the pollutants as harmful?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Meanwhile, in other news, we have the separate YouGov on public attitudes to immigration, which is yet more terrible news for Labour:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tjg0yoww6u/InternalResults_170112_Immigration.pdf

    Highlights:

    * Majorities want immigration rules tightened, and this applies to every regional subset including London (61%) and Scotland (60%.)

    * Of those surveyed, a total of 69% wanted the rules tightened, 16% left as they are, and only 6% wanted looser regulation (less than the 8% of DKs.) This survey at least suggests that Theresa May is onto something with her emphasis on immigration - and, presumably, she wants the Conservatives to get a grip before Ukip (or something nastier) comes along and does it for them.

    * There are also absolute majorities for cutting immigration amongst all four main party affiliations, and all age groups except the 18-24s (and even amongst them 48% wanted tighter controls.)

    * The public were also asked about Labour's position on the issue, and voters were as baffled as the party leadership itself appears to be confused. 31% thought Labour wanted more immigration, 19% thought they wanted things left as they are, 13% thought they wanted the rules tightened, and 38% had no idea what Labour's position was at all.

    Personally, I was surprised only that the 31% figure wasn't even higher than it actually was...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,889
    edited January 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    Talking of China, which we weren't, everyone knows I am bullish on its prospects, and have been so for ten years on this site, predicting its rise to power and preeminence when others scoffed.

    However THIS gives me pause.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38587580

    A five year reduction in life expectancy? People trapped in their apartments?

    China will still outstrip America in sheer size, but there are the seeds of great discontent here.

    A few weeks ago I linked to this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1-Y6OzVH7s

    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    As an aside, another problem facing China is the massive building bubble, and the fact that large parts of their infrastructure are not, to be polite, built to code.
    I was in Beijing in November a few years ago and it reminded me very much of London in the early 50’s. Or, come to that, Manchester in the winter of 61/2, before the snow came down in January ’62.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    williamglenn said:

    As far as Merkel's concerned, we're on our own. Trump is a gift to centrist European politics as Anti-Americanism will make a comeback.

    "I will continue to work to ensure that the 27 member states work together effectively and, above all, in a forward-looking way," she said, adding that Trump's positions had "been known for a while."

    "My positions are also known," she said.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/merkel-hits-back-at-trump-europes-fate-is-in-our-own-hands-2017-1

    I do find it entertaining to watch your attempts to reconcile your European federalism with Trump's election as President.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    OldKingCole said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    Talking of China, which we weren't, everyone knows I am bullish on its prospects, and have been so for ten years on this site, predicting its rise to power and preeminence when others scoffed.

    However THIS gives me pause.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38587580

    A five year reduction in life expectancy? People trapped in their apartments?

    China will still outstrip America in sheer size, but there are the seeds of great discontent here.

    A few weeks ago I linked to this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1-Y6OzVH7s

    Quite worryingly spectacular. I'd heard first-hand stories of the London smogs pre-the clean air act, but they couldn't have been this bad could they?

    As an aside, another problem facing China is the massive building bubble, and the fact that large parts of their infrastructure are not, to be polite, built to code.
    I was in Beijing in November a few years ago and it reminded me of London in the early 50’s.
    It's been the same for ages. They had to shut down most of the heavy industry in the city when the Olympics was on, and that was nine years ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    "38% had no idea what Labour's position was at all"

    That seems to include Corbyn.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    williamglenn said:

    CDU former-minister says Hammond's threats are an expression of British cluelessness.

    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article161196973/Die-Drohungen-sind-Ausdruck-britischer-Ratlosigkeit.html

    LOL

    Lambsdorrff the bloke who said remain was nailed on

    #twatstoignore
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: No10 spkswomn: "I'm not aware that the Prime Minister has spoken to Michael Gove [since his Trump meeting]".
    Relations still in deep freeze.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    logical_song said:

    .... and yet the Council and By-election results don't seem to back up your assertions.

    Local authority elections can only tell you so much. They have comparatively low turnouts, which can skew results towards the most committed voters and/or good GOTV operations; are commonly influenced by peculiar local circumstances; are subject (in normal times at least) to a significant element of protest against the sitting Government which may not always manifest fully at a general election; and (most importantly) people aren't choosing the next Government of the country when they vote in them.

    The reason why the Liberal Democrats are having quite a lot of very strong by-election performances, and yet remain somewhere around the 10% mark in so many of these polls, isn't because the polling is wrong. It is because the polling and the by-elections are asking different questions.

    If council by-elections were a reliable guide to how things should shape up at Westminster, then the Local Ratepayers ought to be doing a great deal better than their current dismal total of zero MPs.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: No10 spkswomn: "I'm not aware that the Prime Minister has spoken to Michael Gove [since his Trump meeting]".
    Relations still in deep freeze.

    I suppose Gove' still too close to Cameron
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    I listened to Jezza on Marr yesterday, and I think he's finally beginning to get the hang of waffling. But with Jezza, it's what he doesn't say now that worries you.

    The advantage of him never changing his mind is that we always know what he thinks, even when he doesn't say it. Immigration good, nuclear power bad. It has an appreciative audience, but I'm not sure it's a majority of even the Labour voters.
This discussion has been closed.