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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017
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I'd take 6 or fewer on those odds. Burnham taking it up to 3 is a quick start given we're only in January, but remember all the hype about 10-12 UKIP defections to follow Carswell. These things peter out more often than they ramp up.
"He must be the most unpopular populist in modern British politics."
Steve Rotheram
Assuming Corbyn remains in post, I'd expect to see at least a couple of Blairites jump ship this year (though they might 'do a Tristan' to save face I suppose)
Odds seem well chosen to me... Not sure which way to gotobe honest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0zNWswcqMg
Items 6 & 7 on the BBC:
Is it OK to watch porn in public?
How to get a pension of £20,000 a year
There's no equivalent of the SNP south of the border. Lib Dems start from too low a base, UKIP's receding and the Conservatives can't leap in the same way because they're the Government and already have a majority.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/820311441072910337
Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)
And
If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Staying in the Single Market is becoming more popular.
Corbyn isn't doing well... But I think the predictions of annihilation are overdone.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/william-hill-tells-staff-to-shine-torches-through-rival-bookies-windows-racing-partnership
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/07/civil-servants-told-make-patriotic-case-brexit/
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/constitution/european-integration/news/80051/public-lean-towards-single-market-over-reduced
Mr. Mortimer, interesting, but tricky to get representative vox pops, perhaps?
Rocket time.
Hopefully more succesful thant he last try !
*Crosses fingers*
Something makes me wonder whether laying Labour Inn stoke is the cannier bet...
Fingers crossed indeed.
They didn't even *try* for a launch with the last one; it explodedcaught fire during a test.
I think they're trying to launch ten satellites at once, so if they have a problem I reckon it'll be in the second-stage orbital part of the mission.
Besides, a figure that high isn't necessarily what Labour will end up with in a General Election, of course. In fact, it would be unprecedented in modern times (for which, read the last half-century) for them to do so. We have already passed the point in this Parliament relative to which - when the election eventually occurred - a Labour Party in Opposition has ALWAYS polled lower. Even in the 92-97 Parliament, albeit that the fall was slight in that case.
Oppositions that are doing well - especially when faced with Governments beset by challenges - typically lead in mid-term. The Conservatives have been ahead in every single Westminster VI poll since May entered office, with a mean lead of almost 12%. This is somewhat sub-optimal for Labour.
Of course there won't be a massacre. Labour has such gargantuan majorities in most of its surviving seats that they're only really vulnerable to the kinds of swings that happened in Scotland, and there's no sign of that occurring. But it could be reduced to its lowest total of MPs since the 1930s. This would leave it as an impotent bystander in Parliament and almost certainly take more than one further electoral cycle to recover from - even if Labour proves both willing and able to make a comeback, which is far from certain to put it mildly.
Now about tomorrow when England play India in the cricket and I go see Liverpool take on Manchester United at Old Trafford.
[Afraid I don't know the German verb 'to claim'].
Although wouldn't it be 'behaupte'?
Blinking past participles
Lib Dems are 7/1 w b365 and 9.4-11 on Betfair
Anyway, I must be off.
Very Orange. Classic neoliberal
Back from the dead?
New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.
Can someone let Justin know, once again this ComRes poll DOES NOT include any VI before he gets overexcited again.,
More people agree than disagree that the Red Cross was right to describe the NHS was experiencing a humanitarian crisis (47% to 36%) but on who do they think would be better at managing the NHS winter crisis
Theresa May/Tories - 43%
Jeremy Corbyn/Labour - 31%
So a 12% lead for the Tories on the NHS.
(Except on Brexit).
Do you think its value? People on here are saying they expect UKIP and Cons to be close or even Cons in front.... 5/2 plays 20/1!
That'd make the match bet 2/13 UKIP 13/2 Cons
Tristam Hunt was a possibility, the guy who has got the job in the nuclear industry was apparently another, how many are there?
The most likely reason for MPs standing down was a Mayoral sinecure. As far as I can see we have 2 likely candidates which gets us to 4. More than another 2? I just don't see it.
Corbyn is utter shite.
I appreciate that there is a huge social care dimension to the state of the NHS atm but nevertheless, perhaps people realise that spunking money up the (ward) wall isn't always the answer.
Good luck with that.
This question invites people to pass judgement on both the parties AND the leaders. In other recent surveys, when the leader names are omitted, Labour has been shown to retain a modest lead on health.
This demonstrates - as if we didn't know it already - that Theresa May is a significant asset to the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn a terrible handicap for Labour.
More generally, the survey gives both sides something to come away with, but the public do tend to have emotionally overwrought reactions to questions relating to the funding of the NHS (most of them reflexively say it should always have more cash thrown it at,) and the management of the NHS (Health Secretaries are almost invariably woefully unpopular, even if people have never really heard of them before.)
One of the results that most strikes me is the one suggesting, once again, that voters favour paying more tax if it were to be hypothecated for health spending. I don't believe that for a second. Any party which goes into an election promising tax rises to fund social goodies will pay a price.
People say they're willing to pay these extra taxes in order to make themselves sound nice and feel virtuous, but different impulses assert themselves in the privacy of the ballot box. Most voters do not support such measures - or if they do, what they really mean is that the extra tax should only be paid by people whose total income is at least £1 higher than theirs.
Terribly cynical of me, I know.
Sky reporting this morning big support for Theresa May on withholding funds on doctors not opening 8 - 8 - 7 days a week. How many know the Government has allocated in excess of 500,000 million for this improved GP service
There will be a big clamour to increase salaries but that will not address the massive increase in demand and you can bet that if Corbyn was given cart blanche it would go on salaries.
'Jeremy Corbyn is so dire, even George Osborne or IDS would win a landslide against him'
If leadership ratings really are the best indicator then we're heading for a massive Tory majority at the next.
To the put it all into context (figures are Ipsos Mori)
In December 2011 Cameron had a 9% lead over Ed Miliband in the leader ratings.
In May 2015 Cameron's lead over Ed was 17% in the leader ratings.
In December 2016 May's lead over Corbyn was 47% in the leader ratings.