politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017

Quincel's First Law of Political Betting: Exciting Things happen less, and happen more slowly, than generally expected.

I'd take 6 or fewer on those odds. Burnham taking it up to 3 is a quick start given we're only in January, but remember all the hype about 10-12 UKIP defections to follow Carswell. These things peter out more often than they ramp up.

How gratifying that the bet says six or fewer rather than six or less.

david_herdson said:

For context, the last *parliament* in which more than 5 Lab MPs quit for other jobs (whether political, diplomatic, administrative, private sector or whatever), was in the 1950s. We've already had four this time and Burnham will probably make the fifth.

Mike seems to make Burnham the third... How have you got five? Or have I misunderstood?

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

For context, the last *parliament* in which more than 5 Lab MPs quit for other jobs (whether political, diplomatic, administrative, private sector or whatever), was in the 1950s. We've already had four this time and Burnham will probably make the fifth.

Mike seems to make Burnham the third... How have you got five? Or have I misunderstood?

Mike is counting 2017 departures. I'm going from the GE. Includes Tooting and Ogmore.

Out of interest, anyone know how many Chiltern one hundreds-type jobs there are for resigning MPs? What if a dozen go at once?

SirBenjamin said:

Will defections count? And if a Labour member defects to CON/LD/IND/Whatever and then resigns to trigger a by election, will that count as a LAB resignation or a resignation from whichever party they defected to?

Assuming Corbyn remains in post, I'd expect to see at least a couple of Blairites jump ship this year (though they might 'do a Tristan' to save face I suppose)

I'm not convinced Lab MPs will defect. Maybe one in the whole of rest of this parliament. The tribal thing is strong.

rottenborough said:

Out of interest, anyone know how many Chiltern one hundreds-type jobs there are for resigning MPs? What if a dozen go at once?

They get appointed in succession, as with the N Ireland Anglo-Irish Agrrement by elections.

rottenborough said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

For context, the last *parliament* in which more than 5 Lab MPs quit for other jobs (whether political, diplomatic, administrative, private sector or whatever), was in the 1950s. We've already had four this time and Burnham will probably make the fifth.

Mike seems to make Burnham the third... How have you got five? Or have I misunderstood?

Mike is counting 2017 departures. I'm going from the GE. Includes Tooting and Ogmore.

The bet is 2017 only.

I know. That's why I highlighted 'parliament' in the original, to emphasise the difference.

Britain today:

Items 6 & 7 on the BBC:

Is it OK to watch porn in public?

How to get a pension of £20,000 a year

FPT: Mr. Surbiton, I do wonder if we're underestimating the residual strength of Labour's brand, despite Corbyn.

There's no equivalent of the SNP south of the border. Lib Dems start from too low a base, UKIP's receding and the Conservatives can't leap in the same way because they're the Government and already have a majority.

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

If Steve Rotheram is elected Mayor of Liverpool he will also step down as MP for Liverpool Walton. Though given he had a majority of 27,777 over UKIP I don't think there is much chance of even Corbyn losing there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

SandyRentool said:

How gratifying that the bet says six or fewer rather than six or less.

Only if you accept Labour MPs as distinct entities rather than an homologous irrelevance.

William Hill to torch their rivals shops

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/william-hill-tells-staff-to-shine-torches-through-rival-bookies-windows-racing-partnership

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

2015 General Election result. Corbyn Team will take it now.

Staying in the Single Market is becoming more popular.

Have they asked this question on the single market before? MORI has asked this question, and got the opposite answer, suggesting it is becoming less popular

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/constitution/european-integration/news/80051/public-lean-towards-single-market-over-reduced

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

Boost for hard Brexit, while May will try for a trade deal full single market membership is a non starter without any new immigration controls

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

2015 General Election result. Corbyn Team will take it now.

Staying in the Single Market is becoming more popular.

On those figures Labour would easily retain both seats.

Only because Opinium is the only pollster to have made no adjustments since the general election which is why it gets a repeat of the 2015 result and has Labour and UKIP higher than other pollsters and the LDs and Tories lower. I grant you Labour will probably hold Stoke but most polls show Copeland is too close to call

SandyRentool said:

How gratifying that the bet says six or fewer rather than six or less.

Your right, it's excellent.

Mortimer said:

Strikes me from the numerous vox pops and media pieces that Copeland still has the vestiges of party loyalty, especially to Labour, whilst in Stoke that loyalty has disappeared. I'm finding Stoke really hard to call...

The Tories can win Copeland if they squeeze the UKIP vote and get their vote out and a few Labour voters go LD or stay at home, Labour will hold Stoke, UKIP are too far behind

Off topic - what an extremely sensible QT last night. Owen Patterson and Jeremy Whoever it was ex-LD talking an awful lot of sense on the NHS. Tezza should make one of them Health Secretary.

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

Staying in the Single Market is becoming more popular.

Albeit a political impossibility.

Pulpstar said:

http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Rocket time.

Hopefully more succesful thant he last try !

*Crosses fingers*

Awww, I was going to post that!

Fingers crossed indeed.

They didn't even *try* for a launch with the last one; it explodedcaught fire during a test.

I think they're trying to launch ten satellites at once, so if they have a problem I reckon it'll be in the second-stage orbital part of the mission.

rkrkrk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Surbiton, I do wonder if we're underestimating the residual strength of Labour's brand, despite Corbyn.

There's no equivalent of the SNP south of the border. Lib Dems start from too low a base, UKIP's receding and the Conservatives can't leap in the same way because they're the Government and already have a majority.

I agree. The poll below shows labour on 30% - almost the same as under miliband.
Corbyn isn't doing well... But I think the predictions of annihilation are overdone.

The Opinium numbers recently have tended to show Tory leads at the lower end of the range for all surveys. This might be something to do with methodology that is peculiar to them. In any event, whilst I certainly do think that the Labour brand is strong, I doubt if they're doing as well as 30%. The chasm in approval ratings between Corbyn and May, and other recent polls showing Tory leads on most policy areas, all suggest that a Labour value of 30% is just a little too generous.

Besides, a figure that high isn't necessarily what Labour will end up with in a General Election, of course. In fact, it would be unprecedented in modern times (for which, read the last half-century) for them to do so. We have already passed the point in this Parliament relative to which - when the election eventually occurred - a Labour Party in Opposition has ALWAYS polled lower. Even in the 92-97 Parliament, albeit that the fall was slight in that case.

Oppositions that are doing well - especially when faced with Governments beset by challenges - typically lead in mid-term. The Conservatives have been ahead in every single Westminster VI poll since May entered office, with a mean lead of almost 12%. This is somewhat sub-optimal for Labour.

Of course there won't be a massacre. Labour has such gargantuan majorities in most of its surviving seats that they're only really vulnerable to the kinds of swings that happened in Scotland, and there's no sign of that occurring. But it could be reduced to its lowest total of MPs since the 1930s. This would leave it as an impotent bystander in Parliament and almost certainly take more than one further electoral cycle to recover from - even if Labour proves both willing and able to make a comeback, which is far from certain to put it mildly.

TOPPING said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Opinium/Observer poll

Con 38 (nc) Lab 30 (-1) Lib Dems 7 (+1) UKIP 14 (+1)

And

If the government has to choose between staying in the single market or ending free movement, 41% would opt for the latter, and 32% the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/labour-struggling-build-voter-support-poll-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

Staying in the Single Market is becoming more popular.

Albeit a political impossibility.

Also becoming less popular not more so

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

German MP Erika Steinbach is leaving the CDU over Merkel's asylum policies and has wished the AfD good luck.

What's German for TPD?

Verräterischer schweinhund

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Strikes me from the numerous vox pops and media pieces that Copeland still has the vestiges of party loyalty, especially to Labour, whilst in Stoke that loyalty has disappeared. I'm finding Stoke really hard to call...

The Tories can win Copeland if they squeeze the UKIP vote and get their vote out and a few Labour voters go LD or stay at home, Labour will hold Stoke, UKIP are too far behind

All very sensible sounding, but I'm struck by the impression in Shipper's Brexit book that local party apparatus is basically moribund in 'safe' seats which a) made Remain's canvassing difficult and b) made it difficult to judge how wrong their message was until too late.

Something makes me wonder whether laying Labour Inn stoke is the cannier bet...

Possibly but UKIP's campaign organisation is even worse than Labour's, unlike the Tories

Quincel said:

I seem to recall someone (isam?) tipping Harry Kane as top scorer a couple of weeks back at 10/1 or so. Wish I'd taken note then.

Yes it was me... I made him 13/2, and that was without Costa maybe leaving!

Mr. Eagles, cheers.

Although wouldn't it be 'behaupte'?

1 second launch window, I couldn't organise taking a piss to that sort of level of timeliness.

Gosh Lib Dems now down to 9 -2 to win Stoke Central at William Hill.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, du bist Fegelein, und ich will meine funf Reichsmarks.

[Afraid I don't know the German verb 'to claim'].

Ich behaupte.

That means claim in the sense of to claim something is true. You want verlangen or fodern.

Scheiße, I used to be quite good at German.

Cheers, Mr. Glenn.

Anyway, I must be off.

Conservatives are 20/1 w SJ! That must be value surely?

New ComRes poll out

New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, du bist Fegelein, und ich will meine funf Reichsmarks.

[Afraid I don't know the German verb 'to claim'].

Is it beKlaimen?

TheScreamingEagles said:

New ComRes poll out

New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.

Sorry, filing that in the 'people don't actually understand the implications' file.

Pulpstar said:

theakes said:

Gosh Lib Dems now down to 9 -2 to win Stoke Central at William Hill.

A ridiculous price.

9.4 on BF.

isam said:

Conservatives are 20/1 w SJ! That must be value surely?

Odds of getting on with Stan or James though ?

TOPPING said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New ComRes poll out

New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.

Sorry, filing that in the 'people don't actually understand the implications' file.

That's a big file..

Why not re-phrase the question as ' do you want to cap wages, which means everyone else would need to pay more tax'.

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Conservatives are 20/1 w SJ! That must be value surely?

Odds of getting on with Stan or James though ?

Not good... but someone may be able to

Do you think its value? People on here are saying they expect UKIP and Cons to be close or even Cons in front.... 5/2 plays 20/1!

That'd make the match bet 2/13 UKIP 13/2 Cons

TheScreamingEagles said:

The NHS findings really are a kick in the nuts for Labour.


More people agree than disagree that the Red Cross was right to describe the NHS was experiencing a humanitarian crisis (47% to 36%) but on who do they think would be better at managing the NHS winter crisis

Theresa May/Tories - 43%

Jeremy Corbyn/Labour - 31%

So a 12% lead for the Tories on the NHS.

I know I'm a tory supporter, but how the flying f*** are they not being hammered on the NHS?

Corbyn is utter shite.

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Conservatives are 20/1 w SJ! That must be value surely?

Odds of getting on with Stan or James though ?

Not good... but someone may be able to

Do you think its value? People on here are saying they expect UKIP and Cons to be close or even Cons in front.... 5/2 plays 20/1!

That'd make the match bet 2/13 UKIP 13/2 Cons

Main bet is a ton on Labour at 1.84 for me tbh

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Conservatives are 20/1 w SJ! That must be value surely?

Odds of getting on with Stan or James though ?

Not good... but someone may be able to

Do you think its value? People on here are saying they expect UKIP and Cons to be close or even Cons in front.... 5/2 plays 20/1!

That'd make the match bet 2/13 UKIP 13/2 Cons

Main bet is a ton on Labour at 1.84 for me tbh

Ladbrokes taking a view to get against Labour, 5/6

Slackbladder said:

TOPPING said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New ComRes poll out

New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.

Sorry, filing that in the 'people don't actually understand the implications' file.

That's a big file..

Why not re-phrase the question as ' do you want to cap wages, which means everyone else would need to pay more tax'.

Or 'do you want to cap wages, so for the same total wage bill, most people will earn a bit more?'.

David_Evershed said:

isam said:

theakes said:

Gosh Lib Dems now down to 9 -2 to win Stoke Central at William Hill.

We really should establish a principle of how to relate the price of a runner on here, and that principle should be to quote the biggest price available. Quoting the shortest price makes the site look very amateur.

Lib Dems are 7/1 w b365 and 9.4-11 on Betfair

Is 9.4 - 11 an amateur price or a professional price?

They are the prices available on the exchange to back & lay...quoting only one side of Betfair is another no no

Slackbladder said:

SandyRentool said:

Slackbladder said:

TOPPING said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New ComRes poll out

New Comres poll finds 57% of the public support Jeremy Corbyn's wage cap policy with even Tory voters backing it by 49% to 41%.

Sorry, filing that in the 'people don't actually understand the implications' file.

That's a big file..

Why not re-phrase the question as ' do you want to cap wages, which means everyone else would need to pay more tax'.

Or 'do you want to cap wages, so for the same total wage bill, most people will earn a bit more?'.

So you would start dictating to private companies what they must spend money on?

Good luck with that.

May's plans to reduce net immigration to 100,000 is exactly that, isn't it?

TheScreamingEagles said:

The NHS findings really are a kick in the nuts for Labour.

More people agree than disagree that the Red Cross was right to describe the NHS was experiencing a humanitarian crisis (47% to 36%) but on who do they think would be better at managing the NHS winter crisis

Theresa May/Tories - 43%

Jeremy Corbyn/Labour - 31%

So a 12% lead for the Tories on the NHS.

In these sorts of surveys, everything depends on the exact question.

This question invites people to pass judgement on both the parties AND the leaders. In other recent surveys, when the leader names are omitted, Labour has been shown to retain a modest lead on health.

This demonstrates - as if we didn't know it already - that Theresa May is a significant asset to the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn a terrible handicap for Labour.

More generally, the survey gives both sides something to come away with, but the public do tend to have emotionally overwrought reactions to questions relating to the funding of the NHS (most of them reflexively say it should always have more cash thrown it at,) and the management of the NHS (Health Secretaries are almost invariably woefully unpopular, even if people have never really heard of them before.)

One of the results that most strikes me is the one suggesting, once again, that voters favour paying more tax if it were to be hypothecated for health spending. I don't believe that for a second. Any party which goes into an election promising tax rises to fund social goodies will pay a price.

People say they're willing to pay these extra taxes in order to make themselves sound nice and feel virtuous, but different impulses assert themselves in the privacy of the ballot box. Most voters do not support such measures - or if they do, what they really mean is that the extra tax should only be paid by people whose total income is at least £1 higher than theirs.

Terribly cynical of me, I know.

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The NHS findings really are a kick in the nuts for Labour.


More people agree than disagree that the Red Cross was right to describe the NHS was experiencing a humanitarian crisis (47% to 36%) but on who do they think would be better at managing the NHS winter crisis

Theresa May/Tories - 43%

Jeremy Corbyn/Labour - 31%

So a 12% lead for the Tories on the NHS.

I know I'm a tory supporter, but how the flying f*** are they not being hammered on the NHS?

Corbyn is utter shite.

As an opinion pollster put it to me earlier on this week (to annoy me)

'Jeremy Corbyn is so dire, even George Osborne or IDS would win a landslide against him'

If leadership ratings really are the best indicator then we're heading for a massive Tory majority at the next.

To the put it all into context (figures are Ipsos Mori)

In December 2011 Cameron had a 9% lead over Ed Miliband in the leader ratings.

In May 2015 Cameron's lead over Ed was 17% in the leader ratings.

In December 2016 May's lead over Corbyn was 47% in the leader ratings.