I have often been accused of being more right wing than most Tories when it comes to matters of personal morality - and I have to accept that I feel a certain affinity with the views of Ann Widdecombe and even Mary Whitehouse on this issue.I hate the personal hypocrisy of it all! I am utterly appalled when the Church agrees to marry couples who have been cohabiting - quite often with a kid or two in tow. Were I a church minister or vicar I would decline to marry them. At the end of the day the Church either has beliefs and principles or it does not. Putting the aside in this way totally undermines its credibility.
You might reflect on Luke 7:36-50
Is that the chapter where Jesus recovers from poor midterm polling to win an unexpected overall majority?
No, I think it's the one where he announced ‘I will be greatest jobs president God ever created’...
I thought it was the passage where Jesus declared "Man's greatest joy is to slaughter his enemies, to drive them before him, and to listen to the lamentations of their women."
I don't think his Hugeness is one to put up with much lamentation.
Surely if Putin did have as much leverage as some are claiming, he wouldn't have made the statement about the US troops being a 'threat'. He'd have just had a quiet word in the orange shell-like and Trump would have moved them out next month.
The public sabre rattling from Russia suggests to me that Trump is not as deep in the Kremlin's pocket as feared. This is of course a very, very good thing.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
On income tax, 42% support a penny increase on the basic rate compared to 37% who oppose it, a marked change from April 2014 where opposition stood at 51%.
OK I am now officially frightened. 8 days till it is up to Donald Trump to decide whether those troops stay in Poland.
Up to Donald Trump.
I think he will almost certainly do something.
The US military will try and convince him to just reduce the numbers, reduce the deployment period, or even just send them to Germany instead.
But, Trump may go further.
So, time to buy a generator and start stocking the bunker?
Putin probably wants something like a demilitarisation of the Baltic States and a lifting of sanctions.
He'll be annoyed that those states joined the EU and NATO in the first place, but probably recognises any overt military move on them would be a step too far. From the Russia point of view, the EU and NATO 'encouraging' Georgia and Ukraine to join them was a step too far.
Ultimately, he wants to be seen as a strong man and build a Greater Russia. But so does Trump, so, unless the Russians truly do have major shit on Trump, Trump won't want to look like a total weakling - or be portrayed as such - in US eyes either.
If Trump does start to look a threat to US interest, I expect Congress to act.
The 'positive' part, such as it is, could be Trump-Putin forming an anti-ISIS/Islamist extremist alliance.
Putin also sees himself as a defender of Christendom and traditional Western values (and Obama and his ilk dangerously "progressive", e.g. on gay rights) but I don't know quite how that'll square with Trump and the Republicans either.
Putin "a defender of Western values"? - polonium in your tea, imprisonment for false tax crimes, etc,etc?
That is very interesting and obviously reflects a different culture. As it happens , I have been taken aback in just the last hour to receive an invitation from my niece and her husband to the double Christening of their two children - boys of 3 years and 6 months old.. The couple are not churchgoers and their first child was born out of wedlock more than a year before their marriage. To be honest , I find it highly hypocritical that they wish to go down this road when their previous conduct reveals how far their standards of personal morality fall short of Christian principles.
Society has yet to develop a recognised civil ceremony equivalent to a Christening yet people still want to have a social occasion to celebrate the birth and the new child (and why not? the Church has been vey adept over the centuries in marrying ceremony with religion precisely because people *want* ceremony).
But from your comment, it doesn't sound as if you know much of Christian principles, the core of which is forgiveness.
I have often been accused of being more right wing than most Tories when it comes to matters of personal morality - and I have to accept that I feel a certain affinity with the views of Ann Widdecombe and even Mary Whitehouse on this issue.I hate the personal hypocrisy of it all! I am utterly appalled when the Church agrees to marry couples who have been cohabiting - quite often with a kid or two in tow. Were I a church minister or vicar I would decline to marry them. At the end of the day the Church either has beliefs and principles or it does not. Putting the aside in this way totally undermines its credibility.
I completely agree that the Church of England has lost its way in terms of what it believes. But that said, Christ's message is about forgiveness and morality and belief are not the same thing. You might also want to reflect that in refusing to marry a couple with children or who have been cohabiting, you are ensuring that they continue to live 'in sin' (apart from being absurd). What would Jesus do?
Not really. I would suggest that people who live their lives that way should opt for a civil ceremony - as indeed did my niece and her husband. There would be no sense of hypocrisy in that scenario. What I object to is people 'wanting to have their cake and eat it' and effectively abusing the church for social convenience or a prettier Wedding Album!
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
My only thought on this is that they're anticipating the EU27 official response once A50 is invoked, condemning the UK to the outer darkness, and by the way here's our invoice for a hojillion pounds before we'll let you leave.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
Consider which ways the Supreme Court decision could go. If they gold-plate the ruling of the High Court then the bar gets very high indeed and we could have all sorts of constitutional crises before getting to the point of being able to invoke A50. The other alternative is that they overturn the High Court's decision, but I think a middle ground decision is unlikely.
If I lived in Copeland I would not be voting Labour at the coming by election. There are no circumstances in which I will support a gender vetted candidate.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
My only thought on this is that they're anticipating the EU27 official response once A50 is invoked, condemning the UK to the outer darkness, and by the way here's our invoice for a hojillion pounds before we'll let you leave.
Before we let you leave. I don't think so - any financial settlement will have to be by agreement or be tied up in the Courts for decades.
If I lived in Copeland I would not be voting Labour at the coming by election. There are no circumstances in which I will support a gender vetted candidate.
It's not often that I come to the defence of Labour, but I think that this is a shortlist which happens to comprise all women, rather than an all-women shortlist, if you see what I mean. There were four men and four women on the longlist.
If I lived in Copeland I would not be voting Labour at the coming by election. There are no circumstances in which I will support a gender vetted candidate.
It's not often that I come to the defence of Labour, but I think that this is a shortlist which happens to comprise all women, rather than an all-women shortlist, if you see what I mean. There were four men and four women on the longlist.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
People were forecasting a drop in sterling following the vote and lo, it dropped. Sometimes things just work like that.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
My only thought on this is that they're anticipating the EU27 official response once A50 is invoked, condemning the UK to the outer darkness, and by the way here's our invoice for a hojillion pounds before we'll let you leave.
Before we let you leave. I don't think so - any financial settlement will have to be by agreement or be tied up in the Courts for decades.
Excuse my flippancy Big_G. I was merely trying to convey that the EU are going to respond in a hostile manner to the A50 invocation, and the markets will subsequently go into conniptions.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
People were forecasting a drop in sterling following the vote and lo, it dropped. Sometimes things just work like that.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
Consider which ways the Supreme Court decision could go. If they gold-plate the ruling of the High Court then the bar gets very high indeed and we could have all sorts of constitutional crises before getting to the point of being able to invoke A50. The other alternative is that they overturn the High Court's decision, but I think a middle ground decision is unlikely.
The sensible decision is to uphold the High Court but rule that it is for the Government to decide how it presents it's case to Parliament. Mind you sensible and Court judgements do not often go together
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
People were forecasting a drop in sterling following the vote and lo, it dropped. Sometimes things just work like that.
Something about stopped clocks....
stopped clocks can be spooky.... A friend (elderly) gave us a carriage clock as a wedding present, and it stopped working on the morning he died.
If I lived in Copeland I would not be voting Labour at the coming by election. There are no circumstances in which I will support a gender vetted candidate.
It's not often that I come to the defence of Labour, but I think that this is a shortlist which happens to comprise all women, rather than an all-women shortlist, if you see what I mean. There were four men and four women on the longlist.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Surely if Putin did have as much leverage as some are claiming, he wouldn't have made the statement about the US troops being a 'threat'. He'd have just had a quiet word in the orange shell-like and Trump would have moved them out next month.
The public sabre rattling from Russia suggests to me that Trump is not as deep in the Kremlin's pocket as feared. This is of course a very, very good thing.
But then there is no public demonstration of Russian strength.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
All three of those look like reasonable choices:
"Mrs Cannon, of Harrington, has spent 25 years in local politics, including a 16-year stint on Cumbria County Council, and currently sits on Allerdale Borough Council where she is a former deputy leader. "
"Gillian Troughton – Cumbria county councillor who lives in Whitehaven."
Racel Holliday: "A Whitehaven health campaigner who was named Cumbria Woman of the Year for fighting to set up a hostel for homeless veterans in Egremont"
Surely if Putin did have as much leverage as some are claiming, he wouldn't have made the statement about the US troops being a 'threat'. He'd have just had a quiet word in the orange shell-like and Trump would have moved them out next month.
The public sabre rattling from Russia suggests to me that Trump is not as deep in the Kremlin's pocket as feared. This is of course a very, very good thing.
But then there is no public demonstration of Russian strength.
Putin wants to look strong.
In that case he has so much leverage he can be brazen about wielding it. This is of course a very, very bad thing.
Just a reminder that most Cambridge educated spied have illustrious careers
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
Given social and parental pressure around confirmations, and the age of participants, I'm not wholly convinced that decisions are always made independently.
That cuts both ways, some friends of ours in the UK who are moderately regular church goers and always willing to help out at church events, and who are (sometimes against the odds) managing to keep their children going as well, inquired about confirmation for their kids. The vicar told them the kids would need to go to both Sunday School and Bible study for six months in preparation for the confirmation. This was clearly never going to fly with the kids, and the parents thought it was a ridiculous imposition as well. Four less bums on pews at the weekend, anyone would think there wasn't an attendance problem at most churches.
Good grief, I agree with a vicar. It hardly seems unreasonable that people should have some level of knowledge about Christianity before committing themselves as confirmed followers. If he said wait until the kids turn 16 I would agree even more!
and yet attendance is at an all time low. What is the ecclesiastical version of realpolitik
Ecclesiastical realpolitik is when parents suddenly become converts to religion, at the point where they realise best school in the area is the church school.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four,one in seven, so not particularly suspicious.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
My only thought on this is that they're anticipating the EU27 official response once A50 is invoked, condemning the UK to the outer darkness, and by the way here's our invoice for a hojillion pounds before we'll let you leave.
Before we let you leave. I don't think so - any financial settlement will have to be by agreement or be tied up in the Courts for decades.
Excuse my flippancy Big_G. I was merely trying to convey that the EU are going to respond in a hostile manner to the A50 invocation, and the markets will subsequently go into conniptions.
I think the markets will have many wild fluctuations over Brexit but there is no alternative but to leave and use our considerable benefits to the EU in trade, military and security, to achieve a deal.
There are many who think we should remain, and their view needs to be respected, but they also need to explain how on earth we could remain as the Cameron deal is dead in the water, but also where would it leave us other than humilated and weakened.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
Consider which ways the Supreme Court decision could go. If they gold-plate the ruling of the High Court then the bar gets very high indeed and we could have all sorts of constitutional crises before getting to the point of being able to invoke A50. The other alternative is that they overturn the High Court's decision, but I think a middle ground decision is unlikely.
The sensible decision is to uphold the High Court but rule that it is for the Government to decide how it presents it's case to Parliament. Mind you sensible and Court judgements do not often go together
Didn't the HoC do that in the middle of the Hearing when they approved the service of the Article 50 notice by 31st March? It was at that point I started looking for a white rabbit somewhere in the proceedings. There were a couple of contenders but nothing definitive.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
I don't get this. Why is the triggering of A50 by end-March not the default assumption? I can only assume that the traders think that there is a fairly substantial chance that it won't happen, which is, frankly, nuts. There is certainly a risk that it won't happen according to the government's timescale but the chance of it not happening at all (or even after end-June) are tiny.
Nuts but non-zero.
Non-zero, sure. But anticipating a fall of 6c or so implies about a 1 in 6 chance that it won't happen *at all* (otherwise it'd already be priced in), if we take the $1.50 pre EURef price as the other side of the scale. I'd reckon on a 1 in 6 of missing March as fair but no A50 at all as closer to 1 in 50.
Consider which ways the Supreme Court decision could go. If they gold-plate the ruling of the High Court then the bar gets very high indeed and we could have all sorts of constitutional crises before getting to the point of being able to invoke A50. The other alternative is that they overturn the High Court's decision, but I think a middle ground decision is unlikely.
The sensible decision is to uphold the High Court but rule that it is for the Government to decide how it presents it's case to Parliament. Mind you sensible and Court judgements do not often go together
Didn't the HoC do that in the middle of the Hearing when they approved the service of the Article 50 notice by 31st March? It was at that point I started looking for a white rabbit somewhere in the proceedings. There were a couple of contenders but nothing definitive.
Yes but it was an opposition motion and not the governments therefore would not be valid
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
Yep, I realised my mistake just after posting!
It is rare indeed to catch a Nabavi mistake - let alone within a two minute window.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
Mr Meeks, who knows a thing or two about the Supreme Court, reckons that their judgements are usually handed down on Wednesdays, and that we might get a day or only a few hours' notice beforehand. Unless they decide to handle this case differently, of course, as is their prerogative.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
1/14 for specific gender. not sure about the calculation where the long-list includes a variety of people on the right end of the LGBTIQ list
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
Yep, I realised my mistake just after posting!
I would need a lot of persuading!!
1/14 does seem a bit unlikely. But who knows, the four men may have simply been crap!
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
Noticeable that the shortlist is female, but also very local, with records in local campaigns. Labour is taking the right tack. No parachutes and a local campaign on local issues.
With that attitude Jezza may inadvertently recreate a viable party, probably by accident rather than design.
Just a reminder that most Cambridge educated spied have illustrious careers
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
Given social and parental pressure around confirmations, and the age of participants, I'm not wholly convinced that decisions are always made independently.
That cuts both ways, some friends of ours in the UK who are moderately regular church goers and always willing to help out at church events, and who are (sometimes against the odds) managing to keep their children going as well, inquired about confirmation for their kids. The vicar told them the kids would need to go to both Sunday School and Bible study for six months in preparation for the confirmation. This was clearly never going to fly with the kids, and the parents thought it was a ridiculous imposition as well. Four less bums on pews at the weekend, anyone would think there wasn't an attendance problem at most churches.
Good grief, I agree with a vicar. It hardly seems unreasonable that people should have some level of knowledge about Christianity before committing themselves as confirmed followers. If he said wait until the kids turn 16 I would agree even more!
and yet attendance is at an all time low. What is the ecclesiastical version of realpolitik
Ecclesiastical realpolitik is when parents suddenly become converts to religion, at the point where they realise best school in the area is the church school.
Usually for the six months it takes to get through the door! Net impact on annual attendance is probably minimal.
Just a reminder that most Cambridge educated spied have illustrious careers
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
Noticeable that the shortlist is female, but also very local, with records in local campaigns. Labour is taking the right tack. No parachutes and a local campaign on local issues.
With that attitude Jezza may inadvertently recreate a viable party, probably by accident rather than design.
The big question is - does she want contol of immigration and our borders
Just seen Rogue One. Shan't spoil it, so my non-spoilery thoughts are that there was a little too much cheese in places, but the ending was very good.
Plus it finally came up with a suitable explanation of why the first Death Star was so flawed.
But not why they still seem to be using 1970s electronics...
Since the films were 'a long time ago', 1970's electronics are obviously the cutting edge.
A good friend of mine went to school with Felicity Jones.
Film makers can't really win on that point. The only criticism I have seen of the comically bad Prometheus which isn't 100% justified is "why is their technology so far ahead of that in Alien when this is a prequel to that?" Because if you stick to Alien technology the question then becomes, how come between 2012 and 2089 mankind has reverted to talking to mainframes via monochrome CRTs?
If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.
Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
It's one in seven, actually.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
Noticeable that the shortlist is female, but also very local, with records in local campaigns. Labour is taking the right tack. No parachutes and a local campaign on local issues.
With that attitude Jezza may inadvertently recreate a viable party, probably by accident rather than design.
The big question is - does she want contol of immigration and our borders
Just a reminder that most Cambridge educated spied have illustrious careers
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
Film makers can't really win on that point. The only criticism I have seen of the comically bad Prometheus which isn't 100% justified is "why is their technology so far ahead of that in Alien when this is a prequel to that?" Because if you stick to Alien technology the question then becomes, how come between 2012 and 2089 mankind has reverted to talking to mainframes via monochrome CRTs?
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
I did think it tied in well with the pre-existing chronology and didn't enter retcon hell.
I thought overall VII was good, but it was in places far too close to the plot of the original 1977 film. Also I didn't like the Falcon entering hyperspace from inside a freighter, and (later in the film) exiting hyperspace just metres above a planet's surface! Oh and being able to see the Starkiller destroy the Republic from a planet in a completely different system.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
Film makers can't really win on that point. The only criticism I have seen of the comically bad Prometheus which isn't 100% justified is "why is their technology so far ahead of that in Alien when this is a prequel to that?" Because if you stick to Alien technology the question then becomes, how come between 2012 and 2089 mankind has reverted to talking to mainframes via monochrome CRTs?
The ship in Prometheus runs Windows 7.
Anything is better than that.
Could be a lot worse. Could be Windows 10, or Windows 8!
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
Not had much chance to. Election by the membership is a relatively new concept, and it clearly has some drawbacks (Corbyn).
Edit: I suppose you can say they would have done had it gone ahead last year
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
But in the deputy leadership contest Harriet Harman came out on top of all the men, via the glorious AV system
I did think it tied in well with the pre-existing chronology and didn't enter retcon hell.
It has kinda ruined the continuity in Episode IV, I've watched EP IV a couple of times over Christmas, and it really sticks out like a sore thumb where it is pretty much said Princess Leia was responsible obtaining the plans for the Death Star.
I was like, yer what? No mention of the lovely Jyn Erso and the rest of the Rogue One team?
Time for another George Lucas special edition to fix that.
OK I am now officially frightened. 8 days till it is up to Donald Trump to decide whether those troops stay in Poland.
Up to Donald Trump.
"Last October, Russia sent nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to its exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, followed a month later by Bastion anti-ship missile launchers."
I would have thought the range on those things was such that it didn't really matter if they were fired from Kaliningrad or from western Russia.
Nah, Iskander has a range of about 300 miles, from Western Russia isn't not going to put any pressure on Poland, Belarus is in the way. Presumably the Bastions are there to keep nosey American carriers at arms length although they have been used against ground targets in Syria.
With apologies to Nikita Krushchev:
"Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want the Russians to scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad."
I did think it tied in well with the pre-existing chronology and didn't enter retcon hell.
It has kinda ruined the continuity in Episode IV, I've watched EP IV a couple of times over Christmas, and it really sticks out like a sore thumb where it is pretty much said Princess Leia was responsible obtaining the plans for the Death Star.
I was like, yer what? No mention of the lovely Jyn Erso and the rest of the Rogue One team?
Time for another George Lucas special edition to fix that.
Typical aristocrats.. taking all the credit for the hard work of others..
A timely reminder that the Prince of Wales said that the Ivor Crewe building at the University of Essex looks like a dustbin. Living in the area and having been there for a lecture or two and a recording of Any Questions, I can attest to the correct nature of his remark.
Mr. Eagles, not seen IV for a while, but could be explained away that she obtained them from the perilous situation in which they were. If you see what I mean.
A timely reminder that the Prince of Wales said that the Ivor Crewe building at the University of Essex looks like a dustbin. Living in the area and having been there for a lecture or two and a recording of Any Questions, I can attest to the correct nature of his remark.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
Film makers can't really win on that point. The only criticism I have seen of the comically bad Prometheus which isn't 100% justified is "why is their technology so far ahead of that in Alien when this is a prequel to that?" Because if you stick to Alien technology the question then becomes, how come between 2012 and 2089 mankind has reverted to talking to mainframes via monochrome CRTs?
The ship in Prometheus runs Windows 7.
Anything is better than that.
Could be a lot worse. Could be Windows 10, or Windows 8!
I did think it tied in well with the pre-existing chronology and didn't enter retcon hell.
It has kinda ruined the continuity in Episode IV, I've watched EP IV a couple of times over Christmas, and it really sticks out like a sore thumb where it is pretty much said Princess Leia was responsible obtaining the plans for the Death Star.
I was like, yer what? No mention of the lovely Jyn Erso and the rest of the Rogue One team?
Time for another George Lucas special edition to fix that.
Try the opening crawl, TSE:
"It is a period of civil war. Rebel spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Galactic Empire.
During the battle, Rebel spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the DEATH STAR, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire planet.
Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Leia races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the galaxy...."
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
How about the LibDems?
Didn't elect any women at all last election. Can't be much worse than that.
Just a reminder that most Cambridge educated spied have illustrious careers
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
A timely reminder that the Prince of Wales said that the Ivor Crewe building at the University of Essex looks like a dustbin. Living in the area and having been there for a lecture or two and a recording of Any Questions, I can attest to the correct nature of his remark.
Living in Essex surely that's symptomatic of living in a dustbin.
Not as bad as Hallam
Sheffield Hallam is the gateway to the Peak District, the Garden of Eden was located here.
Essex is the gateway to chav central.
No, that's Herdings Park!
(actually to be fair to Herdings Park, the view across to the city centre is rather awesome - and a local kid who I thought would barrack me for taking pics of trams there was rather intrigued I'd come all the way from London to Sheffield to ride the Supertram, we chatted for some time about trains )
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
How about the LibDems?
Didn't elect any women at all last election. Can't be much worse than that.
@GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.
That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
How about the LibDems?
Didn't elect any women at all last election. Can't be much worse than that.
Mr. Eagles, not seen IV for a while, but could be explained away that she obtained them from the perilous situation in which they were. If you see what I mean.
Mr Dancer, the "opening crawl" to IV has been reproduced upthread.
Comments
Surely if Putin did have as much leverage as some are claiming, he wouldn't have made the statement about the US troops being a 'threat'. He'd have just had a quiet word in the orange shell-like and Trump would have moved them out next month.
The public sabre rattling from Russia suggests to me that Trump is not as deep in the Kremlin's pocket as feared. This is of course a very, very good thing.
Would love to see Juncker's expression
But seriously just how many rule books and accepted norms are going to be binned as the Trump Presidency takes power.
While it is funny to see the MSM having a collective breakdown maybe they may finally realise that their World order is changing.
However, it is a period of greater uncertainty and with many more dangers on the horizon, sadly
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/nhs/news/82285/public-back-tax-hike-pay-nhs-poll
On income tax, 42% support a penny increase on the basic rate compared to 37% who oppose it, a marked change from April 2014 where opposition stood at 51%.
She describes herself as pro-nuclear and left of centre, supporting Jeremy Corbyn in Labour’s recent leadership elections."
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Hospital-campaigner-and-councillor-enter-race-to-become-MP-796db60f-0626-4c90-827c-e1205603d792-ds
Now where do Unite stand on nuclear power?
A good friend of mine went to school with Felicity Jones.
Putin wants to look strong.
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 spy responsible for the controversial ‘fake’ Trump dossier, is a Cambridge alumnus and was President of The Cambridge Union during his time here.
http://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/01/12/ex-mi6-spy-responsible-trump-dossier-president-cambridge-union-86586
There are many who think we should remain, and their view needs to be respected, but they also need to explain how on earth we could remain as the Cameron deal is dead in the water, but also where would it leave us other than humilated and weakened.
First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
http://m.france24.com/en/20170112-france-presidential-candidate-emmanuel-macron-elections-le-pen-far-right-english?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_user&aef_campaign_date=2017-01-12
With that attitude Jezza may inadvertently recreate a viable party, probably by accident rather than design.
Anything is better than that.
I did think it tied in well with the pre-existing chronology and didn't enter retcon hell.
Edit: I suppose you can say they would have done had it gone ahead last year
I was like, yer what? No mention of the lovely Jyn Erso and the rest of the Rogue One team?
Time for another George Lucas special edition to fix that.
"Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want the Russians to scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad."
http://www.unitetheunion.org/uploaded/documents/Energy201211-3509.pdf
Essex is the gateway to chav central.
"It is a period of civil war. Rebel spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Galactic Empire.
During the battle, Rebel spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the DEATH STAR, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire planet.
Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Leia races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the galaxy...."
(actually to be fair to Herdings Park, the view across to the city centre is rather awesome - and a local kid who I thought would barrack me for taking pics of trams there was rather intrigued I'd come all the way from London to Sheffield to ride the Supertram, we chatted for some time about trains