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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Anthony King, one of Britain’s leading psephologists

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    Mr. Eagles, not seen IV for a while, but could be explained away that she obtained them from the perilous situation in which they were. If you see what I mean.

    It was General Dodonna saying things like 'An analysis of the plans provided by Princess Leia has demonstrated a weakness in the battle station'
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    Barbara Cannon lost her CCC seat in 2013 because of an internal Labour dispute to a de-selected Labour candidate standing as an Independent. She was Labour candidate in Penrith and the Border in ? 2010. I like her as a person, very new Labour when I knew her - had lunch in 10 Downing Street with the Blairs.

    The two best, Tim Knowles and David Southward haven't made it through to the last four.

    My contacts rate Gillian Troughton but not Rachael Holliday - I don't know either of them.
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    Mr. Eagles, not seen IV for a while, but could be explained away that she obtained them from the perilous situation in which they were. If you see what I mean.

    It was General Dodonna saying things like 'An analysis of the plans provided by Princess Leia has demonstrated a weakness in the battle station'
    "It is a period of civil war. Rebel spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Galactic Empire.

    During the battle, Rebel spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the DEATH STAR, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire planet.

    Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Leia races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the galaxy...."
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,475
    Jennifer Rubin (of the 'so overrated' ? 'failing' ? Washington Post) calls out Trump for the grifter he is:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/01/12/trump-is-headed-toward-an-ethics-train-wreck/?utm_term=.b8fe1f3ede06
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    Mr. Eagles, not seen IV for a while, but could be explained away that she obtained them from the perilous situation in which they were. If you see what I mean.

    It was General Dodonna saying things like 'An analysis of the plans provided by Princess Leia has demonstrated a weakness in the battle station'
    Leia provided them from the spies mentioned in the rolling titles at the start of the episode (those shown by Rogue One) to the rest of the rebels with the help of Luke etc - continuity preserved.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,957

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuardianHeather: Labour has agreed an all-woman shortlist - Gillian Troughton, Barbara Cannon and Rachel Holliday - for Copeland by-election, I understand.

    That's right keep discriminating, one of them is bound to become leader one of these days......
    No woman has ever finished ahead of any man in a Labour leadership contest.
    Only evil sexist misogynist parties like the Tories elect women (twice!).
    The Conservative party membership has never elected a woman.
    It would have done had Leadsom not dropped out.

    And it might have picked May even if Boris hadn't self destructed.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,021
    edited January 2017
    I've just been reading about Jared Kushner. Perfect for the Trump dynasty. Poor grades so his father paid Harvard $2,500.000 to get him in. The same father who hired a prostitute to do a sting on his brother-in-law for which he was jailed for two years.

    Cometh the hour cometh the man. I think Trump's just found the ideal special advisor
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,058
    Dr. Prasannan's correct, Mr. Eagles. The continuity is fine.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,957
    @David Herdson. Who do FX traders talk to, socialise with, and work with?

    The ones I know all think Brexit is crazy, disastrous etc. and live in a confirmation bubble - they therefore think May must think the same as them (secretly) and is bluffing for political reasons.

    They are wrong but Sterling will almost certainly drop because it's a self - fulfilling prophecy*.

    (I know just one trader who's more sanguine but shorting Sterling just because he thinks all his fellow traders will sell)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    If that were proved to me I would take a different view. I would need to be persuaded that a conscious decision had not been made to impose an All Woman Shortlist. It seems suspicious to me that not one of the men reached the final shortlist.

    Well, I don't know, but in a purely random selection the chances of three choices out of eight, where four of the eight are men and four women, coming out as three short-listed candidates of the same sex, is one in four, so not particularly suspicious.
    It's one in seven, actually.

    First selected is immaterial. 2nd is 3/7, 3rd is 2/6. 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42 = 1/7.
    1/7 for any gender and 1/14 for a specific gender? Or is this another Monty Hall type thing where it is counterintuitive?
    Noticeable that the shortlist is female, but also very local, with records in local campaigns. Labour is taking the right tack. No parachutes and a local campaign on local issues.

    With that attitude Jezza may inadvertently recreate a viable party, probably by accident rather than design.
    The big question is - does she want contol of immigration and our borders
    She campaigned for Remain, and has retweeted pro refugee things from Christians on the left.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,094
    'It's a terrible night for the Conservatives.'

    Sorry couldn't resist.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    justin124 said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    It's not a big surprise views are changing given the experience of life people have. Thirty years ago divorce was kept very quiet, as was single parenting. My son is in a class of 28 only two children of which are living with both birth parents, and this is in the rural shires.

    The stigma of divorce has really gone by the 60s. Havig kids out of wedlock is a different matter - and remains far from being universally accepted.
    Oddly here in the Philippines, a place where when I was courting my wife 20-odd years ago, young ladies were still chaperoned by aunties, almost the opposite is now true. This is the only country in the world where divorce is still illegal, a view which is widely supported, and yet having children out of wedlock now hardly raises an eyebrow even in the most rural of communities.

    That is very interesting and obviously reflects a different culture.
    As it happens , I have been taken aback in just the last hour to receive an invitation from my niece and her husband to the double Christening of their two children - boys of 3 years and 6 months old.. The couple are not churchgoers and their first child was born out of wedlock more than a year before their marriage. To be honest , I find it highly hypocritical that they wish to go down this road when their previous conduct reveals how far their standards of personal morality fall short of Christian principles.
    Society has yet to develop a recognised civil ceremony equivalent to a Christening yet people still want to have a social occasion to celebrate the birth and the new child (and why not? the Church has been vey adept over the centuries in marrying ceremony with religion precisely because people *want* ceremony).

    But from your comment, it doesn't sound as if you know much of Christian principles, the core of which is forgiveness.
    People often talk about forgiveness as being a key part of Christianity. And they're right. But they tend to forget the other side of it. The requirement to show true repentance.

    Christian baptism is not just a ceremony. It has real meaning, for those who believe. If you don't believe and have no intention of taking on the obligations which baptism imposes on the parents of the children being baptised, why should you demand - or indeed be entitled to - such a ceremony?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Ishmael_Z said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    .


    That is very interesting and obviously reflects a different culture.
    As it happens , I have been taken aback in just the last hour to receive an invitation from my niece and her husband to the double Christening of their two children - boys of 3 years and 6 months old.. The couple are not churchgoers and their first child was born out of wedlock more than a year before their marriage. To be honest , I find it highly hypocritical that they wish to go down this road when their previous conduct reveals how far their standards of personal morality fall short of Christian principles.
    If you tell them that then I expect the invitation would soon be rescinded.

    Or you could be charitable. Didn't someone quite famous say something about turning cheeks and forgiveness?
    As it happens I shall not be attending anyway- I live in Norfolk and the event will be in Pembrokeshire making it too far to travel. Forgiveness and 'turning the other cheek' hardly arise because the couple have never shown the vaguest hint of being religious. ...
    I believe "Pharisaical" is the name for that attitude. Does your copy of the NT omit the parable of the good Samaritan, or do you just not understand it? If these people never otherwise go to church, you are missing a once in a lifetime opportunity to introduce them to the teachings of our Lord, and you will therefore be sent to hell.

    Mind you, so will I - I had my sons christened for purely social reasons. I did take on the job of PCC treasurer for 2 years in payment, though. The odd thing is, I am pretty certain everyone else on the PCC was an atheist too, with the possible exception of the vicar (and I'm not absolutely sure about him). A very English state of affairs.
    The Pharisees were those who very ostentatiously followed all the outward forms of their faith but had no real faith in their heart. Hence the story in the Bible about the widow's mite and the Pharisees. It would be more appropriate to say that those who want all the pretty ceremonies of the Church without any intention of following Christian teachings are those who are being Pharasaical.

    But as you say it's a very English state of affairs and often happens when the parents in question start thinking about schooling for their infants.

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    NEW THREAD
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,432

    The ones I know all think Brexit is crazy, disastrous etc. and live in a confirmation bubble - they therefore think May must think the same as them (secretly) and is bluffing for political reasons.

    They are wrong but Sterling will almost certainly drop because it's a self - fulfilling prophecy*

    Is it not a kind of confirmation bubble that convinces you that she is not? If you believe she was sincere in April 2016 then you have to concede that she thinks that Brexit is against the national interest, and is therefore approaching this primarily from the perspective of damage avoidance.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/nhs/news/82285/public-back-tax-hike-pay-nhs-poll

    On income tax, 42% support a penny increase on the basic rate compared to 37% who oppose it, a marked change from April 2014 where opposition stood at 51%.

    Largely supported by pensioners - who don't pay National Insurance and many don't pay income tax either.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    Fairs fair, it's not just northerners... Essex paedo ring discovered

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/819594576843444224
This discussion has been closed.