politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conserv

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.

Which bit of reboot has gone badly?

Obviously the anti-immigration stuff, but they appear to think the wage cap is also bonkers (I am going to guess because a number work in professions where top whack is rather big bucks).

Dupe.

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

You've missed (7) lawyers, which might be relevant for the 2019 bet. You've also missed (8) the Lib Dems winning a general election - though to be fair, a zombie apocalypse is more likely.

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

See also the UK entry here:

https://twitter.com/janzilinsky/status/816880633045721089

Those are pretty amazing stats. Britain comes out of it quite well, the PIGS - Jesus.

Those can't be the latest OECD stats, because the OECD has had 2015 numbers since May of last year.

Does this make a 2017 election much more likely ?
If May can no longer rely on facing Corbin in 2020, the temptation to seek a mandate to negotiate a settlement as soon as A50 is a done deal must now be considerable. The perceived risk of a snap election must now be low enough even for one as risk averse as she appears to be.

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

At least one mistake on the graph though, if 1977 is 100 then why are they all 100 in 2007? Quite remarkable to see zero change in 30 years!

I see Corbyn's re-set is going swimmingly.

I mean you couldn't make him up, seriously. It is like Alan Bastard becoming leader of the Tory Party, and cemented in his position by hundreds of thousands of bastardophiles.

A senior Tory has called on Theresa May to clarify if Britain will try to remain a member of the single market and the customs union.

Andrew Tyrie, the Treasury committee chairman, said the sooner the government could provide clarity about the main Brexit issues, the better.

The prime minister has played down suggestions that she was ruling out single market membership by insisting on the UK regaining control over immigration. On Monday she blamed media misrepresenation of her views for the drop in the value of the pound to a 10-week low of $1.21.

But Tyrie, in a speech in the City of London on Monday night, said May’s plan to set out broad objectives soon was welcome, “if not overdue”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/senior-tory-says-theresa-mays-clarification-of-brexit-position-is-overdue?CMP=twt_gu

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Interestingly the top 1% have done well - the other 19% of the top quintile (who probably think of themselves as middle earners) much less so

UK household ! median income is around £26k and mean about £32k I think. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom..

The term "middle Britain" must be the most ill formed in the history of journalism & politics.

https://twitter.com/holyroodliam/status/818781515588964353

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

Oh dear

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/818761105485004800?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Re the OECD figures.

THEY ARE NOT TRUE

Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.

What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.

The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.

This has the following measures:

        2007    2015    Change
UK      44,842  41,384  -7.7%
USA     55,780  58,714  5.3%
Spain   34,585  36,325  5.0%
Prtgal  25,111  24,105  -4.0%
Greece  21,467  17,642  -17.8%
Italy   29,931  28,890  -3.5%
Japan   35,245  35,780  1.5%
NL      47,815  50,670  6.0%

I'd guess the WWII comment was just clumsy phrasing.

Pulpstar said:

UK household ! median income is around £26k and mean about £32k I think. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom..

The term "middle Britain" must be the most ill formed in the history of journalism & politics.

Yep, the child benefit cap caused a furore about the effect on hard-pressed middle Britain, in reality it only affected the upper quintile of households. There is a big difference between the "middle class" and the median British family, a huge one in fact.

Casino_Royale said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience.
2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.

Casino_Royale said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

If I've interpreted the figures correctly, that looks like strong growth for all classes for about 25 years from 1979, and very little growth thereafter.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/holyroodliam/status/818781515588964353

He's talking about the appeasers.

The shocking lack of knowledge about history in this country is appalling.

When I become PM, I will make history lessons mandatory with the BBC showing 2 hours worth of history lessons daily.

AlastairMeeks said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

7) First Contact?

Won't happen thanks to stiff new immigration controls.

Like.

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience.
2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.

Especially as all the Leaver narrative has been about how the metropolitan elite have feasted in the last few years while the poor have been flattened by rampant immigration.

Floater said:

Oh dear

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/818761105485004800?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Well they did want him to be more like Trump. Classic Trump: get briefed on what to say when on live TV and then go off at a tangent and start a row about something else entirely.

SeanT said:

Floater said:

Oh dear

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/818761105485004800?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

From the Guardian liveblog, it seemed clear that Corbyn just made it up on the spot: plucking some nice-sounding leftywaffle from the air.

Do we know what question triggered him to utter this nonsense? Or did he literally sit down and say i have a cunning plan...

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.

So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?

Perfectly sensible imho. Problem is, how to operate such a system? GPs in the A&E who triage?

There was a consultant A&E guy on TV last night, saying that they had spent 20 years trying to educate the public not to come to A&E if not urgent and it has failed utterly, so something new has to be tried.

Absolutely I would always have put triage as the first step of any A&E department!

A few winters ago when my wife was very pregnant with our first child she slipped on black ice on the pavement and landed on her stomach. We called the midwife who said to go immediately to A&E. Upon getting their we were asked by the lady at the desk if my wife had felt the baby kick to which she said "no, I don't think so". Nearly four agonising hours later passed with my wife frantic and virtually in tears as she still didn't feel any kicks - I went back to the desk at one point and asked surely this is a priority can't anything be done to which the reply was a snooty "we have four hours to see you" response.

When we finally saw a doctor she said to my wife "so I believe you fell but have felt your baby kick regularly since", to which my wife said "no I've not felt any kicks" and the doctor suddenly looked white and referred us immediately to the maternity unit where she was strapped to a machine and thankfully (after what felt like the scariest wait in our lives) a heartbeat was found and our daughter was ultimately born OK. I have no idea why we didn't just get sent to maternity immediately under the circumstances.

During the four hours I was listening to what everyone else came in with as a way to occupy my mind on something other than scary thoughts. Only one got referred (rightly) immediately through, a guy who came in carrying his severed thumb - clearly very urgent. The vast majority of other cases seemed to be non-urgent including someone who'd "stubbed his toe last week and it still hurts". If you've waited over a week why is it now something that needs to be seen in four hours?

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

If I've interpreted the figures correctly, that looks like strong growth for all classes for about 25 years from 1979, and very little growth thereafter.

Sounds about right. The UK probably also traded lower GDP PPP and far lower unemployment for a bit more wage stagnation post 2007 as well.

Comes to something when the Greens have a more nuanced position than Jezza:

https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/01/10/green-party-corbyn’s-wage-cap-an-unproven-method-for-tackling-inequality/

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/holyroodliam/status/818781515588964353

He's talking about the appeasers.

The shocking lack of knowledge about history in this country is appalling.

When I become PM, I will make history lessons mandatory with the BBC showing 2 hours worth of history lessons daily.

In which case wouldn't it be 'before the second world war'. After we declared war it was a bit late to be an appeaser.

There were still appeasers after war was declared. Why do you think Lord Halifax was shunted out of the Foreign Office?

Ooh that gives me an idea for a thread, Nigel Farage is the new Lord Halifax

AlastairMeeks said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

Thanks.

A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.

Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience.
2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.

Especially as all the Leaver narrative has been about how the metropolitan elite have feasted in the last few years while the poor have been flattened by rampant immigration.

The flattened poor seems to have been an importation of a genuine US problem into the UK narrative without any checking of the actual UK data.

Although worth pointing out there is a big divergence between the income growth of the retired and the working, with the leave voting retired having seen incomes grow much more than the remain voting working.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

Bankers' Brexit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

2% of HSBC's UK workforce?

Tactically I think Labour are right to be trying to play both sides. I get the downside risk of ambiguity but they're the opposition, and it should be quite a good situation for opposing: Demand all the nice things that anyone from the Leave Campaign mentioned, and when they're not delivered, scream betrayal to the leavers, and if there's still time hint to the Remainers that the betrayal may result in a new referendum.

The practical problem is that Corbyn is shit at politics, and will find a way to bollocks up any possible path he might choose.

rcs1000 said:

Re the OECD figures.

THEY ARE NOT TRUE

Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.

What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.

The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.

This has the following measures:

        2007    2015    Change
UK      44,842  41,384  -7.7%
USA     55,780  58,714  5.3%
Spain   34,585  36,325  5.0%
Prtgal  25,111  24,105  -4.0%
Greece  21,467  17,642  -17.8%
Italy   29,931  28,890  -3.5%
Japan   35,245  35,780  1.5%
NL      47,815  50,670  6.0%

Thanks. The original tweet was retweeted by some good journalists, IIRC.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

It may well be out of the frying pan and into the fire for HSBC come May in France.

Is there a reason Paris would be chosen over other EU destinations? What advantage does it offer?

SouthamObserver said:

Corbyn is doing it on purpose. He clearly wants to be put out of his misery.

To go before the next GE is 2.00 on Betfair. Looks more than fair.

Paristonda said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

It may well be out of the frying pan and into the fire for HSBC come May in France.

Is there a reason Paris would be chosen over other EU destinations? What advantage does it offer?

I don't think so, Macron seems to have all @rcs mates as a fan and Fillon is very economically right wing for a French election contender. Should be an improvement come may.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

That's a great graph, showing the positive impact of increased income tax allowances and minimum wage increases is higher than the negative impact of tax credit withdrawal.

Credit to George Osborne!

The gap is getting smaller under a Tory government.

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Re the OECD figures.

THEY ARE NOT TRUE

Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.

What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.

The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.

This has the following measures:

        2007    2015    Change
UK      44,842  41,384  -7.7%
USA     55,780  58,714  5.3%
Spain   34,585  36,325  5.0%
Prtgal  25,111  24,105  -4.0%
Greece  21,467  17,642  -17.8%
Italy   29,931  28,890  -3.5%
Japan   35,245  35,780  1.5%
NL      47,815  50,670  6.0%

Thanks. The original tweet was retweeted by some good journalists, IIRC.

I mean, are they from another source, are they something misinterpreted?

Paristonda said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

It may well be out of the frying pan and into the fire for HSBC come May in France.

Is there a reason Paris would be chosen over other EU destinations? What advantage does it offer?

Eurostar.
The Georges V.

Morris_Dancer said:

I'd guess the WWII comment was just clumsy phrasing.

If Corbyn lasts until 2020, the Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP debate preparation teams will be prepping springboards for Corbyn to go off-message from. His unwillingness to accept collective responsibility and his inclination to speak whatever's on his mind without considering (or even understanding) the consequences of so doing could produce any number of 'clumsy phrasing' moments.

Tissue_Price said:

SouthamObserver said:

Corbyn is doing it on purpose. He clearly wants to be put out of his misery.

To go before the next GE is 2.00 on Betfair. Looks more than fair.

Just me and Nabavi keeping the faith in Corbyn now is it ?

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.

But see my comment downthread. They keep threatening this, but they don't do it. The banks were meant to be filling the ferries at Dover before Xmas.

It's all a lot of positioning and maneuvering and doom-mongering, to get the kind of Brexit they want.

I hope you're right. We'll be opening an office in the EU to stay in the Single Market if it does look like we are going to leave it. We could do without the expense, but the alternative is a lot more of a worry.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/holyroodliam/status/818781515588964353

He's talking about the appeasers.

The shocking lack of knowledge about history in this country is appalling.

When I become PM, I will make history lessons mandatory with the BBC showing 2 hours worth of history lessons daily.

Still doesn't make sense. Appeasement *was* a plan, though not a very good one as it turned out.

(Though I'm not convinced he is talking about appeasement - I'm not sure he's actually talking about WWII at all; I think it's more along the lines that 'in the post-1945 era, this is the worst example of the elite recklessly exposing the country's safety and interests' - though that almost implies that democracy is unacceptably risky.)

@AlastairMeeks He'll "clarify" it - like May with the Grammar schools

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I'd guess the WWII comment was just clumsy phrasing.

If Corbyn lasts until 2020, the Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP debate preparation teams will be prepping springboards for Corbyn to go off-message from. His unwillingness to accept collective responsibility and his inclination to speak whatever's on his mind without considering (or even understanding) the consequences of so doing could produce any number of 'clumsy phrasing' moments.

When you wrote 2020 I thought you meant today 8.20pm

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Re the OECD figures.

THEY ARE NOT TRUE

Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.

What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.

The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.

This has the following measures:

        2007    2015    Change
UK      44,842  41,384  -7.7%
USA     55,780  58,714  5.3%
Spain   34,585  36,325  5.0%
Prtgal  25,111  24,105  -4.0%
Greece  21,467  17,642  -17.8%
Italy   29,931  28,890  -3.5%
Japan   35,245  35,780  1.5%
NL      47,815  50,670  6.0%

Thanks. The original tweet was retweeted by some good journalists, IIRC.

I mean, are they from another source, are they something misinterpreted?

His full blogpost is here: http://www.janzilinsky.com/an-unequal-recovery/

It does link to some OECD analysis and data but I'm afraid I don't have the time or the depth of subject knowledge to go over it right now. Maybe @rcs1000 does?

So that figure IDS has been using has been a load of old bollocks.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/818717581251117057

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

Hmm. I'm beginning to take these warnings with a large pinch of fleur de sel.

Remember this bloodcurdling threat from October last year, courtesy of Anthony Browne, CEO of the British Banking Association.

"Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

How many "smaller banks" actually began "relocating before Christmas"?

As far as I can see, the answer is: Zero.

We've been given contradictory assurances.

We were told David Davis didn't want to do anything hurt the financial services and banking sector, then we were told no transitional deal nor any special protections.

Nonetheless, the threats from Browne were a complete bluff, and a load of hot air, as we now see. "Relocate before Christmas", pff.

Well I'm spending the week after next in Paris getting wooed by the French.

I'll report back on what they say.

Mr. Smithson, (and/or Mr. Eagles), any word on getting MikeK's inability to post removed?

Pulpstar said:

McDonnell's biggest problem is that he'll never get the nominations. He really would be frying pan to fire stuff compared to Corbyn !

Clive Lewis is the only candidate I can conceivably see being part of the setup to end Corbyn's reign in this scenario I think - McDonnell, Abbott, Burgon - doubtful they'll get 35 noms.

What happens if Corbyn tells the PLP

'I'll stand down as leader now if you agree to nominate someone like McDonnell, Burgon, Abbott'

I think they'll agree to it.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.

Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?

Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.

If the structure of the market in which business operate change, then so will their business structures. This will involve some job relocations and corporate restructures.

This is not news.

But I don't see the evidence for a biblical exodus of industry and business from the UK to the EU. Most likely they will just recalibrate what they do and where.

That's most likely. Some jobs will go, while others that would have been created in the UK will instead be created elsewhere in Europe. The same will apply to other types of investment. But it depends on just how hard the Brexit is. The more the cost of doing business in our single biggest export market increases, the more firms will seek to mitigate that by transferring operations. But, as you say, this was always going to happen.

What I would add to that is that new and unanticipated additional employment will also be created in the UK to reflect the new tax and regulatory environment in shapes in the years to come, and the trade deals it strikes.

But, the shape of that won't become clear until some time into the 2020s.

Basically, I don't expect the total level of employment and investment to be affected much in the medium-term. Just its type and shape.

It will be a bit less European and a bit more Global.