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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conserv

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

.@timfarron : Jeremy Corbyn has ceased to be Leader of the Opposition to become cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    edited January 2017
    It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Second like Labour, if they get lucky.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Farron is silly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    FPT:
    This morning's interview's seem somewhat 'brave' of Mr Corbyn, as Sir Humphrey might once have said.

    Not half as brave as @williamglen though, in calling @SeanT's £10k bet. Hope he didn't have too much whisky last night, but at least one can say he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is! Good luck to the pair of you, PB at its finest :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Jonathan said:

    Farron is silly.

    Indeed. Does he want Labour to get a grip and replace Corbyn?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Jonathan, he is. But lucky to have Corbyn as Labour's leader.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    Looks like the Labour party might lose its only tabloid supporter.

    Mirror Group Newspapers in merger talks with Dirty Desmond's Express Newspapers

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/09/trinity-mirror-in-merger-talks-with-express-newspapers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

    What's his plan for lunchtime?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    What is this - an actual position from Quiet Man Farron?!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    PlatoSaid said:

    Love this

    General Election 97
    Westminster voting intention
    CON 31% [0]
    LAB 48% [-2]
    LD 16% [+1]
    LAB lead +17 [-2]
    ICM for the Guardian
    (3-5/1)

    What a difference two decades makes!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Worst thing about this is that I'd definitely lose my Khan and Balls bets.

    #savejeremy
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    FPT:
    tlg86 said:

    weejonnie said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Scotland might actually qualify for a football world cup now

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNewsHQ/status/818754296892235777

    No chance , it is only 2 extra for Europe so we will still be miles away.
    So it will be for nations like Australia then.
    More African and Asian countries probably.
    Will be a tedious affair , extra weeks of meaningless dribble of some diddy teams getting humped and then a week of real football at the end. Will rake inmore cash though so the troughers in FIFA will be rubbing their hands.
    We have 8 groups of 4 at the moment? Total matches = 8*6 = 48
    16 groups of 3 becomes (I think) : 16 * 3 = 48
    Presumably this will be followed by a round of 32. So essentially they've turned the current tournament into a knock out competition with more extra time and penalties. An utter disgrace.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

    The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

    The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    isam said:

    Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

    You mean Fillon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    tpfkar said:

    So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

    What's his plan for lunchtime?

    To announce he's use the flag of England as bog roll?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited January 2017
    Hmm - very generous of Shadsy, I've just taken the 4-5 Corbyn 2019 or later here.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Disappointingly, SPIN are no longer doing markets on days in tenure for political leaders (I asked a while back with reference to Theresa May as Prime Minister). Today would definitely be a day to sell Jeremy Corbyn. He might well have brought his departure date forward by years today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

    Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    The thing which will trigger corbyn going is dire local election results, so time to look at whats coming up this and next May?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

    The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

    The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

    I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

    Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.

    We don't need an English Parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Disappointingly, SPIN are no longer doing markets on days in tenure for political leaders (I asked a while back with reference to Theresa May as Prime Minister). Today would definitely be a day to sell Jeremy Corbyn. He might well have brought his departure date forward by years today.

    I reckon those YouGov/Wales poll might also be a tipping point too, I can actually see the Tories being ahead of Labour in both Wales & Scotland at the next general election (in votes, but not seats)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    John_M said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

    The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

    The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

    I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.
    Being English is a state of mind, not what your passport says.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    Have I gone mad or is that an 84% book? If so there might be a smidgen of value in backing them all!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    FPT
    weejonnie said:

    » show previous quotes
    We have 8 groups of 4 at the moment? Total matches = 8*6 = 48
    16 groups of 3 becomes (I think) : 16 * 3 = 48

    I stand corrected, however it will just be as boring as ever with one team per group instead of two going through. It is quantity over quality for the sake of it. Why not just dump qualifying and have them all play in the finals. It is a money making exercise just the same.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tpfkar said:

    So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

    What's his plan for lunchtime?

    To announce he's use the flag of England as bog roll?
    That was last year.

    14% best pm rating was it? how long before sub 10%
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited January 2017
    Slackbladder said:

    The thing which will trigger corbyn going is dire local election results, so time to look at whats coming up this and next May?

    Labour delaying the Copeland by-election until May 4th, and still losing it, would be a nightmare for Corbyn.

    Tories are already delivering leaflets in the area with Corbyn's many quotes about nuclear energy and weaponry, in announcing his resignation early Jamie Reed has given his party's opponents a head start in campaigning.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

    Leader of the Opposition, 2025-2030?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    isam said:

    Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

    He needs all the publicity he can get.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

    "If Jeremy had 2 brains,,,,,,," LOL
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

    The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

    Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.

    We don't need an English Parliament.
    We already have a de facto English parliament
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: Corbyn says comparisons to Trump are "more than slightly bizarre"

    @youngvulgarian: YOUR OWN TEAM BRIEFED THAT OUT JEREMY, YOUR OWN TEAM twitter.com/jessicaelgot/s…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited January 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.

    34 0.029
    26 0.038
    17 0.059
    13 0.077
    1.57 0.63

    0.84
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?!

    Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think we have to entertain the idea that Corbyn has been set up here [by Milne & McDonnell, presumably].

    Cui bono?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?
    Dunno I've just backed them all with the profit on the 4-7.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    edited January 2017
    Tissue_Price said:

    I think we have to entertain the idea that Corbyn has been set up here [by Milne & McDonnell, presumably].

    Cui bono?

    Diane Abbott and Richard Burgon.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.

    34 0.029
    26 0.038
    17 0.059
    13 0.077
    1.57 0.63

    0.84
    DO they settle on 1 January 2018 or will they wait?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.

    34 0.029
    26 0.038
    17 0.059
    13 0.077
    1.57 0.63

    0.84
    Ha, that's funny, shame I cant get on with them from the sandpit.

    I guess if I send someone to a shop to bet on all the possibilities, they'll probably smell a rat and ruin it for everyone else. Good luck to everyone else filling their boots!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?!

    Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
    The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fallon being the champion of unlimited immigration perhaps puts a cap on his potential % support and geographically limits any potential gains.

    I guess when your MPs can fit in a transit van then that probably isn't limiting your ambition that much...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Some say Corbyn's younger brother Jeff works on Paddy Power's odds.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

    He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.
    Sean, Did you manage to agree a frame on your £10K bet.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

    He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

    I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. T, I think that's possible. However, worth noting that Labour dithered and faffed so much that when they had late doubts about Miliband, they'd run out of road. Obviously, they're more openly antagonistic towards Corbyn, but the deed still needs t be done.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?!

    Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
    The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.
    The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,991
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

    Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
    1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
    2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
    3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
    a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
    b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
    4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

    Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
    Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    For PB slapheads - you're winning

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3978100/The-benefits-going-BALD-Men-hair-appear-intelligent-educated-honest.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/818773515440635904
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Paddy has tied up with Betfair though, so its probably the same geniuses that were sorting the US POTUS turnout market pricing up the books.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    OllyT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

    He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

    I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.
    He'll be there because there is no formal mechanism to remove him. They tried, remember? Even if the unions were to threaten to remove or reduce funding, Corbyn could attempt a direct appeal for finance via his cultists.

    I do agree about the dangers of hubris. A Tory majority should be nailed on, but the Conservatives are perfectly capable of shooting themselves in both feet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

    He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.
    Sean, Did you manage to agree a frame on your £10K bet.
    Not yet. Negotiations continue. Won't give a running commentary. Etc....
    we demand to know Mrs May, and you must first get it approved by the PB Parliament or we'll take you to court
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    edited January 2017
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

    Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
    1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
    2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
    3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
    a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
    b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
    4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

    Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
    Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
    My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

    1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
    2) World War III
    3) A global pandemic
    4) A zombie apocalypse
    5) The rapture
    6) A Carrington event
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. T, I think that's possible. However, worth noting that Labour dithered and faffed so much that when they had late doubts about Miliband, they'd run out of road. Obviously, they're more openly antagonistic towards Corbyn, but the deed still needs t be done.

    Corbyn is there until he decides he's had enough of the job, I guess the question is will he go once the polls drop below 20% and hundreds of councillors are losing seats, or will he hang on until the election in 2019 or 2020. Personally I think the latter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?!

    Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
    The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.
    The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.
    Not sure I follow all the technicalities here, but Paddy is a singles only bet. Otherwise what an earner.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Casino_Royale said:

    Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

    The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.


    Corbyn really is stupid. If he'd targeted those top executives in publicly quoted companies who are taking the p*** with their salaries, he would get support. Talking about entertainers like footballers (who are liked, if overpaid) and general max salaries will just push people away.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    OllyT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

    He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

    I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.
    You have forgotten the Diane Abbot factor :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited January 2017
    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

    He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.
    You do realise that your bet has ensured the one thing you expressed a desire not to happen on PB.

    Constant, and I mean constant discussion of the EU and whether we will, are about to, or just did leave it.

    Edit: Hurrah!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

    The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

    The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

    I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.
    My national identity is extremely strong as an emotion. I'm guessing it comes from my teachers mostly in the late 70s/early 80s who were mostly ex-colonial types - they were very proud of our history/had lived all over the world and gave us first hand personal accounts of life in Africa, the Caribbean, India et al.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    My tax bills would support that analysis.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/telegraphnews/status/818775163466457093
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited January 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    Surely Jezza's Luvvies will just become even more hypocritical, complaining loudly and publicly about inequality and supporting the wage cap, while keeping their own millions offshore or in trusts?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    What does "disposable" income actually mean. Is that before or after food and/or rent, bills etc ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

    Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @wallaceme: The Government might be having a bad week if the Opposition wasn't run with all the poise of a drunk rhino in a ball pool.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mike - Do you honestly think Labour will be better served competing with the Lib Dems to be continuity Remain instead of accepting the referendum result and providing their vision of Leave?

    Didn't the vast majority of "middle England" Tory/Lab marginal constituencies back Leave?

    Seems that any Labour leader (even one infinitely more plausible than Corbyn) is caught between a rock and a hard place of either giving a gift to Farron or a gift to May. Given that Labour oppose the Tories more than they oppose the Lib Dems a gift to Farron seems to be the right and inevitable decision.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    MarkHopkins said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

    The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.


    Corbyn really is stupid. If he'd targeted those top executives in publicly quoted companies who are taking the p*** with their salaries, he would get support. Talking about entertainers like footballers (who are liked, if overpaid) and general max salaries will just push people away.

    Even if it has traction as an idea. Why the hell do it today, when NHS (the one good thing you have in your pocket) is across most newspapers?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Scott_P said:

    @wallaceme: The Government might be having a bad week if the Opposition wasn't run with all the poise of a drunk rhino in a ball pool.

    Rhinoist.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    That's a great graph, showing the positive impact of increased income tax allowances and minimum wage increases is higher than the negative impact of tax credit withdrawal.

    Credit to George Osborne!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    Surely Jezza's Luvvies will just become even more hypocritical, complaining about inequality and supporting the wage cap, while keeping their own millions offshore or in trusts?
    Good point...who could forget labours celebrity poster boy at the last GE & his families hypocrisy over tax.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

    Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
    I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.

    So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520

    looks like shes been on a heavy night out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520

    looks like shes been on a heavy night out
    Bet she wishes Boris had driven her home now
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited January 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

    It really is most entertaining. To everyone who isn't on fat cat banker millions - it's a straight tax on success.

    I'm sure Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Sheen or rich business Labour donors love it as much as Vince's Mansion Tax constituents.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Angela Rayner MP Verified account 
    ‏@AngelaRayner
    Post Office close&franchise further 37 Crown offices,losing around 300 staff,and will cut 127 financial specialists, price of privatisation

    Does she realise the Post Office is still in state hands?!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Mike - Do you honestly think Labour will be better served competing with the Lib Dems to be continuity Remain instead of accepting the referendum result and providing their vision of Leave?

    Didn't the vast majority of "middle England" Tory/Lab marginal constituencies back Leave?

    Seems that any Labour leader (even one infinitely more plausible than Corbyn) is caught between a rock and a hard place of either giving a gift to Farron or a gift to May. Given that Labour oppose the Tories more than they oppose the Lib Dems a gift to Farron seems to be the right and inevitable decision.

    It's a perfectly valid strategy and the message has the benefit of being unambiguous vs Lab/Cons all over the place on it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

    Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

    Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
    1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
    2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
    3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
    a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
    b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
    4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

    Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
    Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
    My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

    1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
    2) World War III
    3) A global pandemic
    4) A zombie apocalypse
    5) The rapture
    6) A Carrington event
    I thought Brexit was The Rapture.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

    Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
    1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
    2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
    3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
    a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
    b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
    4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

    Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
    Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
    My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

    1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
    2) World War III
    3) A global pandemic
    4) A zombie apocalypse
    5) The rapture
    6) A Carrington event
    I thought Brexit was The Rapture.
    Depends on your viewpoint, Brexit is the The Book of Revelation for some.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    PlatoSaid said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

    It really is most entertaining. To everyone who isn't on fat cat banker millions - it's a straight tax on success.

    I'm sure Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Sheen or rich business Labour donors love it as much as Vince's Mansion Tax constituents.
    Ah yes, but havent all those luvvies got tax accountants so that only the little people pay

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Link says it all...

    https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    SeanT said:

    Snapchat to set up their new international HQ in London. "Despite Brexit"

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/10/snapchat-snap-inc-international-hub-uk

    The true test will be if they actually pay taxes here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

    And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

    Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
    I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.

    So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
    Perfectly sensible imho. Problem is, how to operate such a system? GPs in the A&E who triage?

    There was a consultant A&E guy on TV last night, saying that they had spent 20 years trying to educate the public not to come to A&E if not urgent and it has failed utterly, so something new has to be tried.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    See also the UK entry here:

    https://twitter.com/janzilinsky/status/816880633045721089
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Link says it all...

    https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/

    Well his father (grandfather?) was a Labour MP for a while, before getting disgruntled with lack of progress iirc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Snapchat to set up their new international HQ in London. "Despite Brexit"

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/10/snapchat-snap-inc-international-hub-uk

    The true test will be if they actually pay taxes here.
    Have to become profitable first...haven't they just had to raise a load more money?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.

    Which bit of reboot has gone badly?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

    Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
    1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
    2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
    3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
    a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
    b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
    4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

    Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
    Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
    My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

    1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
    2) World War III
    3) A global pandemic
    4) A zombie apocalypse
    5) The rapture
    6) A Carrington event
    I thought Brexit was The Rapture.
    Depends on your viewpoint, Brexit is the The Book of Revelation for some.
    It maybe the 'End of Times' to others

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

    Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
    Interestingly the top 1% have done well - the other 19% of the top quintile (who probably think of themselves as middle earners) much less so
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Link says it all...

    https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/

    Someone should ask him if it's reasonable that a high profile member of a political party should be responsible for funding the press regulator?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

    I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

    ROFL

    It is an 84% book by itself.
    Any value?!

    Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
    The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.
    The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.
    Not sure I follow all the technicalities here, but Paddy is a singles only bet. Otherwise what an earner.
    Basically if you lay out £84 on that Paddy Power market, you are guaranteed to win £16 whatever happens.

    The most obvious value bet in the history of bookmaking, impossible to miss. The equivalent of someone offering 11/8 Heads 11/8 Tails on the toss of a coin
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    edited January 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not a story that is commonly told:

    https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

    I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

    Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

    Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
    Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.

    image
This discussion has been closed.