Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.
Which bit of reboot has gone badly?
Obviously the anti-immigration stuff, but they appear to think the wage cap is also bonkers (I am going to guess because a number work in professions where top whack is rather big bucks).
Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.
Which bit of reboot has gone badly?
Wrong question.
Which part of teh reboot has gone well.
Corbyn and his advisers are amateurs making the Government appear towering geniuses. Fancy relaunching badly when the NHS is in crisis. They have an open goal and instead of scoring , decide to put the ball in their own net.
PS the effect of salary caps means apart from losing all its footballers, teh Premier League will have no managers... Really clever.
Firstly, in what world is France performing markedly better (for the mean or top earners) that the UK or the US? (Especially given the 60% tax on high earners.)
Secondly, while things have undoubtedly been bad in (for example) Spain, real incomes for the bottom 10% of earners have not dropped 69%.
Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:
Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met: 1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU. 2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU. 3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met: a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed. 4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.
Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are
1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression 2) World War III 3) A global pandemic 4) A zombie apocalypse 5) The rapture 6) A Carrington event
You've missed (7) lawyers, which might be relevant for the 2019 bet. You've also missed (8) the Lib Dems winning a general election - though to be fair, a zombie apocalypse is more likely.
Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???
The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.
The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.
Not sure I follow all the technicalities here, but Paddy is a singles only bet. Otherwise what an earner.
Basically if you lay out £84 on that Paddy Power market, you are guaranteed to win £16 whatever happens.
The most obvious value bet in the history of bookmaking, impossible to miss. The equivalent of someone offering 11/8 Heads 11/8 Tails on the toss of a coin
The hardest part of course is getting the £84 on before you're banned, restricted or they change the prices
@bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high
He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.
Sean, Did you manage to agree a frame on your £10K bet.
Not yet. Negotiations continue. Won't give a running commentary. Etc....
Does this make a 2017 election much more likely ? If May can no longer rely on facing Corbin in 2020, the temptation to seek a mandate to negotiate a settlement as soon as A50 is a done deal must now be considerable. The perceived risk of a snap election must now be low enough even for one as risk averse as she appears to be.
Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.
Which bit of reboot has gone badly?
Wrong question.
Which part of teh reboot has gone well.
Corbyn and his advisers are amateurs making the Government appear towering geniuses. Fancy relaunching badly when the NHS is in crisis. They have an open goal and instead of scoring , decide to put the ball in their own net.
PS the effect of salary caps means apart from losing all its footballers, teh Premier League will have no managers... Really clever.
Jezza is so thick he even started to say on sky that Wenger would support it. This would be the manager who earns £7 million a year ie more than most of his players.
It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.
He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.
I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.
If the Lib Dems picked up 30 seats, it'd leave them close to their 2010 total in Eng&Wales - something they achieved off a 23% GB share. That's an awfully big ask, and an even bigger one if the new boundaries come in.
I mean you couldn't make him up, seriously. It is like Alan Bastard becoming leader of the Tory Party, and cemented in his position by hundreds of thousands of bastardophiles.
A senior Tory has called on Theresa May to clarify if Britain will try to remain a member of the single market and the customs union.
Andrew Tyrie, the Treasury committee chairman, said the sooner the government could provide clarity about the main Brexit issues, the better.
The prime minister has played down suggestions that she was ruling out single market membership by insisting on the UK regaining control over immigration. On Monday she blamed media misrepresenation of her views for the drop in the value of the pound to a 10-week low of $1.21.
But Tyrie, in a speech in the City of London on Monday night, said May’s plan to set out broad objectives soon was welcome, “if not overdue”.
It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.
He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.
I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.
Agreed. The Guardian readers' response to his pro-Brexit policy is outstandingly bitter and hostile. 10,000 comments, nearly all of them angry. One lovely Guardian reader calls Leave voters "monsters". That's right: monsters.
So he's deeply antagonised the Remainery metropolitans. He's also unnerved the middle classes with the maximum wage idea.
Lots of his young supporters are passionately pro-EU Greeny types, who had hitherto managed to overlook his lukewarm support for Remain. They will abhor this pro-Brexit stuff.
I wonder if Corbyn would win another leadership election. I begin to doubt it. He could fall with one more push, and then Labour look a different proposition.
Except they have a real problem
The Country elects a sane looking Labour party knowing that they are one leadership election away from putting the hard left in charge again.
They have already done it not once but twice already - and some of us remember how Ken Livingstone got to run the GLC.
Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.
And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.
Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.
So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
Or even , if it is non urgent you could be there for days, your choice. Issue is they do need to sort out the GP's being almost part time nowadays and fine anyone not turning up for appointments/abusing the system. Years ago you could see a GP no bother day or night and yet with multiple times the doctors now it takes days or weeks. Something far wrong with the system. On radio last week some clown phoned in to complain how bad it was for his wife in that she had to do two days 9-7 to get her 4 shifts in to get full pay. The idiot thought this was terrible making her work two long days like that.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.
And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.
It really is most entertaining. To everyone who isn't on fat cat banker millions - it's a straight tax on success.
I'm sure Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Sheen or rich business Labour donors love it as much as Vince's Mansion Tax constituents.
Ah yes, but havent all those luvvies got tax accountants so that only the little people pay
Yep, and if you've got a six figure income from mainly foreign sources it's really easy to set up - especially so if you restrict yourself to spending no more than 90 days in the UK during a tax year.
Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.
And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.
Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.
So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
Or even , if it is non urgent you could be there for days, your choice. Issue is they do need to sort out the GP's being almost part tiem nowadays and fine anyone not turning up for appointments/abusing the system. Years ago you could see a GP no bother day or night and yet with multiple times the doctors now it takes days or weeks. Something far wrong with the system. On radio last week some clown phoned in to complain how bad it was for his wif in that she had to do two days 9-7 to get her 4 shifts in to get full pay. The idiot thought this was terrible making her work two long days like that.
Anecdote - last month I phoned up for an appointment twice and got one the same day in the morning with my GP.
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:
Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met: 1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU. 2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU. 3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met: a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed. 4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.
Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are
1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression 2) World War III 3) A global pandemic 4) A zombie apocalypse 5) The rapture 6) A Carrington event
The term "middle Britain" must be the most ill formed in the history of journalism & politics.
Yep, the child benefit cap caused a furore about the effect on hard-pressed middle Britain, in reality it only affected the upper quintile of households. There is a big difference between the "middle class" and the median British family, a huge one in fact.
The term "middle Britain" must be the most ill formed in the history of journalism & politics.
Yes, a lot of people well inside the top 10% consider themselves to be somewhere in the middle.
Witness the self-confessed JAMs interviewed in the Mail, earning 100k (top 5%) but complaining that with the huge mortgage and the school fees to pay, they had to decide whether they could afford Christmas in Dubai as well as half term skiing in Switzerland this year.
The thing is, these people *think* that they're the people Mrs May is talking about.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience. 2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
If I've interpreted the figures correctly, that looks like strong growth for all classes for about 25 years from 1979, and very little growth thereafter.
Firstly, in what world is France performing markedly better (for the mean or top earners) that the UK or the US? (Especially given the 60% tax on high earners.)
Secondly, while things have undoubtedly been bad in (for example) Spain, real incomes for the bottom 10% of earners have not dropped 69%.
Depends on definitions. If they mean "all people of working age", or "all people in or seeking employment", then a 69% drop in income might makes sense seeing as the bottom 10% are now all unemployed, whereas only half of them were unemployed pre-crash?
The numbers he's quoting are made up anyway, as the OECD doesn't produce the stats he's quoting.
Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:
Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met: 1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU. 2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU. 3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met: a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed. 4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.
Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are
1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression 2) World War III 3) A global pandemic 4) A zombie apocalypse 5) The rapture 6) A Carrington event
7) First Contact?
Won't happen thanks to stiff new immigration controls.
Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:
Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met: 1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU. 2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU. 3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met: a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed. 4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.
Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?
Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.
My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are
1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression 2) World War III 3) A global pandemic 4) A zombie apocalypse 5) The rapture 6) A Carrington event
7) First Contact?
Won't happen thanks to stiff new immigration controls.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
The changes to income tax allowances and raising the minimum wage are having an effect on the incomes of the poorest working families, but it will take a very long time for them to reverse the advantage that has been built up by the wealthiest in society.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience. 2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.
Especially as all the Leaver narrative has been about how the metropolitan elite have feasted in the last few years while the poor have been flattened by rampant immigration.
This is probably the only move Labour could make, the reverse would just put them in the same pool as the LD's, fishing for a small pool of voters. It should at least stem the flow of voters to Tories and UKIP. 1997 levels of LD/Lab tactical voting will be needed now however to give 'the left' any chance of forming the next government. It seems highly unlikely, in which case this is more a gift to May than it is to Farron.
This will be the start of a civil war within Labour's momentum left. The classic marxists like McDonnell, always eurosceptic, wanting wage caps etc, vs the identity left types like Abbott - supporting the EU, more concerned with issues around racial/sexual/gender identity than they are wage caps and nationalisation.
I think we will eventually see Labour controlled by a more classic marxist McDonnell faction, with the Corbynista youths returning to LDs and Green.
Strangely, if there was an election next week I would genuinely have no idea who to vote for.
Well they did want him to be more like Trump. Classic Trump: get briefed on what to say when on live TV and then go off at a tangent and start a row about something else entirely.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.
So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
Perfectly sensible imho. Problem is, how to operate such a system? GPs in the A&E who triage?
There was a consultant A&E guy on TV last night, saying that they had spent 20 years trying to educate the public not to come to A&E if not urgent and it has failed utterly, so something new has to be tried.
Absolutely I would always have put triage as the first step of any A&E department!
A few winters ago when my wife was very pregnant with our first child she slipped on black ice on the pavement and landed on her stomach. We called the midwife who said to go immediately to A&E. Upon getting their we were asked by the lady at the desk if my wife had felt the baby kick to which she said "no, I don't think so". Nearly four agonising hours later passed with my wife frantic and virtually in tears as she still didn't feel any kicks - I went back to the desk at one point and asked surely this is a priority can't anything be done to which the reply was a snooty "we have four hours to see you" response.
When we finally saw a doctor she said to my wife "so I believe you fell but have felt your baby kick regularly since", to which my wife said "no I've not felt any kicks" and the doctor suddenly looked white and referred us immediately to the maternity unit where she was strapped to a machine and thankfully (after what felt like the scariest wait in our lives) a heartbeat was found and our daughter was ultimately born OK. I have no idea why we didn't just get sent to maternity immediately under the circumstances.
During the four hours I was listening to what everyone else came in with as a way to occupy my mind on something other than scary thoughts. Only one got referred (rightly) immediately through, a guy who came in carrying his severed thumb - clearly very urgent. The vast majority of other cases seemed to be non-urgent including someone who'd "stubbed his toe last week and it still hurts". If you've waited over a week why is it now something that needs to be seen in four hours?
It's like jobs. Most people think their job is important. Like the Catholic Church of centuries ago, (or AGW enthusiasts now ), there's an innate human desire to set ourselves as the baseline of normal.
It's one of the reasons communication can be difficult and we have a gulf between SJWs and alt-righters and all in-between. One man's 'political correctness' is not being racist, another's is censoring free speech because it isn't in line with the current vocabulary of acceptable speech as determined by the holier-than-thou.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
If I've interpreted the figures correctly, that looks like strong growth for all classes for about 25 years from 1979, and very little growth thereafter.
Sounds about right. The UK probably also traded lower GDP PPP and far lower unemployment for a bit more wage stagnation post 2007 as well.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience. 2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.
Mr. Observer, he may be doing it on purpose, like when Blackadder dressed in a colourful fashion to try and make the Spanish enfanta[sp] think he was like the Earl of Doncaster (gay).
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?
Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.
Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.
Thanks.
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
Hardly. While you might argue that selecting 2007 to rebate the figures is a bit arbitrary, using 1977 is interesting historically, but has little or no contemporary political salience. 2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.
Especially as all the Leaver narrative has been about how the metropolitan elite have feasted in the last few years while the poor have been flattened by rampant immigration.
The flattened poor seems to have been an importation of a genuine US problem into the UK narrative without any checking of the actual UK data.
Although worth pointing out there is a big divergence between the income growth of the retired and the working, with the leave voting retired having seen incomes grow much more than the remain voting working.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Tactically I think Labour are right to be trying to play both sides. I get the downside risk of ambiguity but they're the opposition, and it should be quite a good situation for opposing: Demand all the nice things that anyone from the Leave Campaign mentioned, and when they're not delivered, scream betrayal to the leavers, and if there's still time hint to the Remainers that the betrayal may result in a new referendum.
The practical problem is that Corbyn is shit at politics, and will find a way to bollocks up any possible path he might choose.
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
Indeed, I've been telling PBers about this happening, but they chose to ignore it.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
It may well be out of the frying pan and into the fire for HSBC come May in France.
Is there a reason Paris would be chosen over other EU destinations? What advantage does it offer?
I don't think so, Macron seems to have all @rcs mates as a fan and Fillon is very economically right wing for a French election contender. Should be an improvement come may.
I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.
That's a great graph, showing the positive impact of increased income tax allowances and minimum wage increases is higher than the negative impact of tax credit withdrawal.
Credit to George Osborne!
The gap is getting smaller under a Tory government.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Hmm. I'm beginning to take these warnings with a large pinch of fleur de sel.
Remember this bloodcurdling threat from October last year, courtesy of Anthony Browne, CEO of the British Banking Association.
"Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”
How many "smaller banks" actually began "relocating before Christmas"?
As far as I can see, the answer is: Zero.
A certain number of workers will move, as much to Dublin as Paris and Frankfurt, but not in massive numbers and certainly not anything that would represent the death of the City.
Such announcements, now, are best viewed as part of the lobbying effort to HMG.
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Hmm. I'm beginning to take these warnings with a large pinch of fleur de sel.
Remember this bloodcurdling threat from October last year, courtesy of Anthony Browne, CEO of the British Banking Association.
"Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”
How many "smaller banks" actually began "relocating before Christmas"?
As far as I can see, the answer is: Zero.
We've been given contradictory assurances.
We were told David Davis didn't want to do anything hurt the financial services and banking sector, then we were told no transitional deal nor any special protections.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
I'd guess the WWII comment was just clumsy phrasing.
If Corbyn lasts until 2020, the Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP debate preparation teams will be prepping springboards for Corbyn to go off-message from. His unwillingness to accept collective responsibility and his inclination to speak whatever's on his mind without considering (or even understanding) the consequences of so doing could produce any number of 'clumsy phrasing' moments.
FWIW, I don't think it's a deliberate death-wish, I think Corbyn realises he might not make it but (like Foot) if he is going to go down, he's going to go down fighting for what he believes in.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
If the structure of the market in which business operate change, then so will their business structures. This will involve some job relocations and corporate restructures.
This is not news.
But I don't see the evidence for a biblical exodus of industry and business from the UK to the EU. Most likely they will just recalibrate what they do and where.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
But see my comment downthread. They keep threatening this, but they don't do it. The banks were meant to be filling the ferries at Dover before Xmas.
It's all a lot of positioning and maneuvering and doom-mongering, to get the kind of Brexit they want.
I hope you're right. We'll be opening an office in the EU to stay in the Single Market if it does look like we are going to leave it. We could do without the expense, but the alternative is a lot more of a worry.
The shocking lack of knowledge about history in this country is appalling.
When I become PM, I will make history lessons mandatory with the BBC showing 2 hours worth of history lessons daily.
Still doesn't make sense. Appeasement *was* a plan, though not a very good one as it turned out.
(Though I'm not convinced he is talking about appeasement - I'm not sure he's actually talking about WWII at all; I think it's more along the lines that 'in the post-1945 era, this is the worst example of the elite recklessly exposing the country's safety and interests' - though that almost implies that democracy is unacceptably risky.)
Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.
And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.
Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.
I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.
So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?
Or even , if it is non urgent you could be there for days, your choice. Issue is they do need to sort out the GP's being almost part tiem nowadays and fine anyone not turning up for appointments/abusing the system. Years ago you could see a GP no bother day or night and yet with multiple times the doctors now it takes days or weeks. Something far wrong with the system. On radio last week some clown phoned in to complain how bad it was for his wif in that she had to do two days 9-7 to get her 4 shifts in to get full pay. The idiot thought this was terrible making her work two long days like that.
Anecdote - last month I phoned up for an appointment twice and got one the same day in the morning with my GP.
I don't live in Tower Hamlets mind you.
Luckily neither do I , but my GP service is patchy to say the least.
I'd guess the WWII comment was just clumsy phrasing.
If Corbyn lasts until 2020, the Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP debate preparation teams will be prepping springboards for Corbyn to go off-message from. His unwillingness to accept collective responsibility and his inclination to speak whatever's on his mind without considering (or even understanding) the consequences of so doing could produce any number of 'clumsy phrasing' moments.
When you wrote 2020 I thought you meant today 8.20pm
Just me and Nabavi keeping the faith in Corbyn now is it ?
Looks like it.
As always, look at the mechanism, or the lack thereof. There is one, and only one, mechanism, which is for him to go voluntarily. I'd recommend listening to his Today programme interview. It didn't sound to me as though he's going anywhere, irrespective of how much damage he does to the Labour Party.
What's more, I'm far from convinced that Corbyn going - and triggering yet another tedious, divisive, inward-looking leadership contest between political pygmies, whilst the government gets on with governing - would help Labour at the next GE.
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
It does link to some OECD analysis and data but I'm afraid I don't have the time or the depth of subject knowledge to go over it right now. Maybe @rcs1000 does?
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
If the structure of the market in which business operate change, then so will their business structures. This will involve some job relocations and corporate restructures.
This is not news.
But I don't see the evidence for a biblical exodus of industry and business from the UK to the EU. Most likely they will just recalibrate what they do and where.
That's most likely. Some jobs will go, while others that would have been created in the UK will instead be created elsewhere in Europe. The same will apply to other types of investment. But it depends on just how hard the Brexit is. The more the cost of doing business in our single biggest export market increases, the more firms will seek to mitigate that by transferring operations. But, as you say, this was always going to happen.
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Hmm. I'm beginning to take these warnings with a large pinch of fleur de sel.
Remember this bloodcurdling threat from October last year, courtesy of Anthony Browne, CEO of the British Banking Association.
"Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”
How many "smaller banks" actually began "relocating before Christmas"?
As far as I can see, the answer is: Zero.
We've been given contradictory assurances.
We were told David Davis didn't want to do anything hurt the financial services and banking sector, then we were told no transitional deal nor any special protections.
Nonetheless, the threats from Browne were a complete bluff, and a load of hot air, as we now see. "Relocate before Christmas", pff.
Well I'm spending the week after next in Paris getting wooed by the French.
McDonnell's biggest problem is that he'll never get the nominations. He really would be frying pan to fire stuff compared to Corbyn !
Clive Lewis is the only candidate I can conceivably see being part of the setup to end Corbyn's reign in this scenario I think - McDonnell, Abbott, Burgon - doubtful they'll get 35 noms.
McDonnell's biggest problem is that he'll never get the nominations. He really would be frying pan to fire stuff compared to Corbyn !
Clive Lewis is the only candidate I can conceivably see being part of the setup to end Corbyn's reign in this scenario I think - McDonnell, Abbott, Burgon - doubtful they'll get 35 noms.
What happens if Corbyn tells the PLP
'I'll stand down as leader now if you agree to nominate someone like McDonnell, Burgon, Abbott'
HSBC is preparing to move 1,000 workers from London to Paris because of confusion over the UK’s Brexit plans, the bank’s boss told MPs today.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
Business that does business in the single market takes steps to ensure it stays in the single market shock. Hard Brexit will see many more in a wide variety of industries follow HSBC's lead.
If the structure of the market in which business operate change, then so will their business structures. This will involve some job relocations and corporate restructures.
This is not news.
But I don't see the evidence for a biblical exodus of industry and business from the UK to the EU. Most likely they will just recalibrate what they do and where.
That's most likely. Some jobs will go, while others that would have been created in the UK will instead be created elsewhere in Europe. The same will apply to other types of investment. But it depends on just how hard the Brexit is. The more the cost of doing business in our single biggest export market increases, the more firms will seek to mitigate that by transferring operations. But, as you say, this was always going to happen.
What I would add to that is that new and unanticipated additional employment will also be created in the UK to reflect the new tax and regulatory environment in shapes in the years to come, and the trade deals it strikes.
But, the shape of that won't become clear until some time into the 2020s.
Basically, I don't expect the total level of employment and investment to be affected much in the medium-term. Just its type and shape.
It will be a bit less European and a bit more Global.
Comments
So, over the last 48 hours which group has he not pissed off?
Which part of teh reboot has gone well.
Corbyn and his advisers are amateurs making the Government appear towering geniuses. Fancy relaunching badly when the NHS is in crisis. They have an open goal and instead of scoring , decide to put the ball in their own net.
PS the effect of salary caps means apart from losing all its footballers, teh Premier League will have no managers... Really clever.
Firstly, in what world is France performing markedly better (for the mean or top earners) that the UK or the US? (Especially given the 60% tax on high earners.)
Secondly, while things have undoubtedly been bad in (for example) Spain, real incomes for the bottom 10% of earners have not dropped 69%.
If May can no longer rely on facing Corbin in 2020, the temptation to seek a mandate to negotiate a settlement as soon as A50 is a done deal must now be considerable. The perceived risk of a snap election must now be low enough even for one as risk averse as she appears to be.
Jezza is so thick he even started to say on sky that Wenger would support it. This would be the manager who earns £7 million a year ie more than most of his players.
I mean you couldn't make him up, seriously. It is like Alan Bastard becoming leader of the Tory Party, and cemented in his position by hundreds of thousands of bastardophiles.
Andrew Tyrie, the Treasury committee chairman, said the sooner the government could provide clarity about the main Brexit issues, the better.
The prime minister has played down suggestions that she was ruling out single market membership by insisting on the UK regaining control over immigration. On Monday she blamed media misrepresenation of her views for the drop in the value of the pound to a 10-week low of $1.21.
But Tyrie, in a speech in the City of London on Monday night, said May’s plan to set out broad objectives soon was welcome, “if not overdue”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/senior-tory-says-theresa-mays-clarification-of-brexit-position-is-overdue?CMP=twt_gu
The Country elects a sane looking Labour party knowing that they are one leadership election away from putting the hard left in charge again.
They have already done it not once but twice already - and some of us remember how Ken Livingstone got to run the GLC.
The term "middle Britain" must be the most ill formed in the history of journalism & politics.
Issue is they do need to sort out the GP's being almost part time nowadays and fine anyone not turning up for appointments/abusing the system.
Years ago you could see a GP no bother day or night and yet with multiple times the doctors now it takes days or weeks. Something far wrong with the system.
On radio last week some clown phoned in to complain how bad it was for his wife in that she had to do two days 9-7 to get her 4 shifts in to get full pay. The idiot thought this was terrible making her work two long days like that.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889
A bit lies, damned lies and statistics here - I remember TUD posting something that looked credible prior to Christmas that the UK was doing almost as bad as Greece in real wage decline.
I don't live in Tower Hamlets mind you.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/818761105485004800?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Jesus.....did he say that? Surely not...
THEY ARE NOT TRUE
Go to the OECD website (http://stats.oecd.org/). They do not produce stats on gross labour income by decile. They do produce real minimum wage information. They do produce average hourly wages. But they do not produce statistics like the ones quoted.
What they do have is "Decile ratios of gross earnings", but this is merely a measure of income dispersion not growth.
The best measure they have is Average Annual Wages at 2015 Prices, PPP adjusted.
This has the following measures:
LOL - how times change.
Witness the self-confessed JAMs interviewed in the Mail, earning 100k (top 5%) but complaining that with the huge mortgage and the school fees to pay, they had to decide whether they could afford Christmas in Dubai as well as half term skiing in Switzerland this year.
The thing is, these people *think* that they're the people Mrs May is talking about.
2007 has at least something to say about the results of recent policy.
The shocking lack of knowledge about history in this country is appalling.
When I become PM, I will make history lessons mandatory with the BBC showing 2 hours worth of history lessons daily.
This will be the start of a civil war within Labour's momentum left. The classic marxists like McDonnell, always eurosceptic, wanting wage caps etc, vs the identity left types like Abbott - supporting the EU, more concerned with issues around racial/sexual/gender identity than they are wage caps and nationalisation.
I think we will eventually see Labour controlled by a more classic marxist McDonnell faction, with the Corbynista youths returning to LDs and Green.
Strangely, if there was an election next week I would genuinely have no idea who to vote for.
Douglas Flint, group chairman of HSBC, said his company was putting in place plans to shift some activities to the continent if the UK lost so-called passporting rights into the EU.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hsbc-brexit-paris-london_uk_5874c5a8e4b0961f09390328?
A few winters ago when my wife was very pregnant with our first child she slipped on black ice on the pavement and landed on her stomach. We called the midwife who said to go immediately to A&E. Upon getting their we were asked by the lady at the desk if my wife had felt the baby kick to which she said "no, I don't think so". Nearly four agonising hours later passed with my wife frantic and virtually in tears as she still didn't feel any kicks - I went back to the desk at one point and asked surely this is a priority can't anything be done to which the reply was a snooty "we have four hours to see you" response.
When we finally saw a doctor she said to my wife "so I believe you fell but have felt your baby kick regularly since", to which my wife said "no I've not felt any kicks" and the doctor suddenly looked white and referred us immediately to the maternity unit where she was strapped to a machine and thankfully (after what felt like the scariest wait in our lives) a heartbeat was found and our daughter was ultimately born OK. I have no idea why we didn't just get sent to maternity immediately under the circumstances.
During the four hours I was listening to what everyone else came in with as a way to occupy my mind on something other than scary thoughts. Only one got referred (rightly) immediately through, a guy who came in carrying his severed thumb - clearly very urgent. The vast majority of other cases seemed to be non-urgent including someone who'd "stubbed his toe last week and it still hurts". If you've waited over a week why is it now something that needs to be seen in four hours?
It's like jobs. Most people think their job is important. Like the Catholic Church of centuries ago, (or AGW enthusiasts now
It's one of the reasons communication can be difficult and we have a gulf between SJWs and alt-righters and all in-between. One man's 'political correctness' is not being racist, another's is censoring free speech because it isn't in line with the current vocabulary of acceptable speech as determined by the holier-than-thou.
https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/01/10/green-party-corbyn’s-wage-cap-an-unproven-method-for-tackling-inequality/
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-wages-drop-10-tuc-greece-recession-financial-crisis-brexit-a7157681.html
Ooh that gives me an idea for a thread, Nigel Farage is the new Lord Halifax
It didn't quite work.
The flattened poor seems to have been an importation of a genuine US problem into the UK narrative without any checking of the actual UK data.
Although worth pointing out there is a big divergence between the income growth of the retired and the working, with the leave voting retired having seen incomes grow much more than the remain voting working.
2% of HSBC's UK workforce?
The practical problem is that Corbyn is shit at politics, and will find a way to bollocks up any possible path he might choose.
Is there a reason Paris would be chosen over other EU destinations? What advantage does it offer?
It's the shortest route back to London when they realise their mistake.
http://arstechnica.com/business/2017/01/yahoo-board-drops-to-five-mayer-is-out-name-changed-to-altaba/
Such announcements, now, are best viewed as part of the lobbying effort to HMG.
We were told David Davis didn't want to do anything hurt the financial services and banking sector, then we were told no transitional deal nor any special protections.
The Georges V.
This is not news.
But I don't see the evidence for a biblical exodus of industry and business from the UK to the EU. Most likely they will just recalibrate what they do and where.
https://twitter.com/D_Blanchflower/status/818789630258675713
(Though I'm not convinced he is talking about appeasement - I'm not sure he's actually talking about WWII at all; I think it's more along the lines that 'in the post-1945 era, this is the worst example of the elite recklessly exposing the country's safety and interests' - though that almost implies that democracy is unacceptably risky.)
As always, look at the mechanism, or the lack thereof. There is one, and only one, mechanism, which is for him to go voluntarily. I'd recommend listening to his Today programme interview. It didn't sound to me as though he's going anywhere, irrespective of how much damage he does to the Labour Party.
What's more, I'm far from convinced that Corbyn going - and triggering yet another tedious, divisive, inward-looking leadership contest between political pygmies, whilst the government gets on with governing - would help Labour at the next GE.
It does link to some OECD analysis and data but I'm afraid I don't have the time or the depth of subject knowledge to go over it right now. Maybe @rcs1000 does?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/818717581251117057
I'll report back on what they say.
Clive Lewis is the only candidate I can conceivably see being part of the setup to end Corbyn's reign in this scenario I think - McDonnell, Abbott, Burgon - doubtful they'll get 35 noms.
OUT OUT OUT !
'I'll stand down as leader now if you agree to nominate someone like McDonnell, Burgon, Abbott'
I think they'll agree to it.
Trump is an intelligent man, who has built up years of experience in business and in media appearance.
Corbyn is out of touch with reality.
Whether you agree with one of them or the other doesn't matter; the facts determine the outcome.
But, the shape of that won't become clear until some time into the 2020s.
Basically, I don't expect the total level of employment and investment to be affected much in the medium-term. Just its type and shape.
It will be a bit less European and a bit more Global.