politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since

First like Trump.

When it says leave/remain areas - at what level is that at? If it's district level then there's probably a fair amount of variance within those so the wards in question might have voted the other way. So I wouldn't read too much into it.

Also interesting that the Tories have made a net gain in Remain areas but a net loss in Leave areas (albeit fractional). However given how low the LDs are likely to have been in Leave areas previously (a majority of the 8 LD held seats voted Remain) really the only way was up

It's fair to say Alex Massie isn't much of a Corbyn fan, but this is quite brutal.
https://capx.co/labour-is-ludicrous-but-its-no-laughing-matter/
"So hapless in fact, he makes Iain Duncan Smith’s stewardship of the Conservative party seem a triumph of Bismarckian proportions. It’s one thing being wrong but quite another to be so inept. And a politician who cannot even appear to stand up for himself is a politician who invites contempt. A party can survive mere unpopularity but it will be sunk by ridicule."

isam said:

"I was quite surprised by the vote share changes that have the most pro-EU party doing far better in places that voted for BREXIT than those that didn’t"

It isn't really surprising it it? SNP did better once they lost the referendum too.

I think UKIP will only really play a part again if the establishment find smart arse ways of trying to stall or prevent our leaving.

I agree once the betrayal happens as it will as seen by many leavers UKIP will be playing a big part again.

Mike has consistently been spinning for the liberal democrats ever since David Cameron left. Such partisan drivel.

Black_Rook said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

The notion that Le Pen is fading may be something of an exaggeration. The French presidential polls are complex - an entire series of questions is asked using a range of possible candidates - and she appears as third in the first round in only this specific scenario. And even then she's only four points adrift of the first place contender. I believe that she still places second or joint second in all of the other scenarios polled.

All of that said, based on my (very limited) knowledge of the French situation, I would still expect Fillon to win the run-off.

Probably.

If the PS don't pick Valls then it becomes very tight between Le Pen/Fillon/Macron. Any combination from that trio could make the run-off.

FPT: Mr. T, how many more burkha-wearing Labour voters will there be by then? With each passing year it becomes less likely.

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Not that I want her to win, but how many times did Trump fade in the polls? And in France we are talking about more complex system of multi-round voting.

TOPPING said:

Can't believe it, we get started on a non-Br*x*t discussion over on the last thread but then we are plunged back into Brexitania with this one.

I keep trying to move the conversion on...slagging off Jamie's, poking fun at the ridiculous over importance given to the story of one London nightclub by a couple of media outlets,....

TOPPING said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TOPPING said:

Can't believe it, we get started on a non-Br*x*t discussion over on the last thread but then we are plunged back into Brexitania with this one.

I keep trying to move the conversion on...slagging off Jamie's, poking fun at the ridiculous over importance given to the story of one London nightclub by a couple of media outlets,....

All pointing to one thing....A...V....

Please...FPTP vs AV vs PR^2...lets have it :-)

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

Shooter in custody.

We talk a lot about polling failures on here - and there have been a few - but a polling failure in France could seriously influence the outcome of the first round.

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Varying reports. Given that this is America could easily be some random nutter, gang fight, who knows.

Or they didn't get their Starbucks order right.

FormerToryOrange said:

Calling local by - elections "real elections" and trying to extrapolate anything from the outcomes is a bit desperate. Mark Senior territory.

A current rolling average for the Westminster VI polls puts the Lib Dems on about 9%, or 1pt up on the 2015 GE. Plug all of the party shares into the Electoral Calculus model and the Lib Dems come out of a 2020 election on the revised boundaries with five seats (although that's still five more than either the Greens or Ukip!)

Recent polling results also appear to suggest that, if there was any significant bounce post-Richmond Park, it has mostly abated - though I think we need more data to establish for certain whether there is any discernible trend in Lib Dem support one way or another, or if they've resumed their long-term pattern of stagnation. Regardless, they still have an awful lot of work to do.

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Fillon is Thatcher. Macron is Blair.

I would very much enjoy a face off between the two (albeit solely from a desire for amusement).

Disclaimer: I met Macron in late 2015, and was very impressed. At a personal level he was clearly extremely bright and understood a lot of France's problems. But I wonder if he has the cojones to take on the vested interests in France.

rcs1000 said:

Disclaimer: I met Macron in late 2015, and was very impressed. At a personal level he was clearly extremely bright and understood a lot of France's problems. But I wonder if he has the cojones to take on the vested interests in France.

Given that he would need to form a government from the other parties, they might see it as the ideal opportunity to slaughter some sacred cows and let Macron deal with the unpopularity.

SeanT said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Sounds like it's in the baggage claim, which is landside.

FWIW an airport is a very ISIS-y target. Spreads terror around travelling. More impact than some casual drive-by in the street.

On the other hand the shooter is apparently alive and in custody (how the hell do you manage that against armed US cops??), which is not very ISIS-y at all.

Wasn't there a mass panic at a US airport a couple of months ago, the descriptions of which were quite horrifying? Doesn't take much to cause a lot of deaths and injuries.

Thankfully, this one looks like it's over pretty quickly.

Mr. Smithson, a poll with 34 million participants would cost an awful lot of cash...

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Not that I want her to win, but how many times did Trump fade in the polls? And in France we are talking about more complex system of multi-round voting.

But Trump also got to ride the most popular political party in the US, that regularly polled more than 50% and controlled the vast majority of states. He was also facing a truly abysmal Democrat candidate, who was - at best - a serial liar, and looked like she was hiding a serious medical condition.

The Front National has underperformed - often by large margins - its opinion poll ratings in recent years. Dromedary calculated that, taking the December 2015 Regional elections, when the FN was polling 32% rather than 24%, and assuming that they got 100% of the increase in turnout (i.e. going from 58% at the Regionals to 80% in Presidential), that they would still be 10 points adrift.

That's a staggering difference. Did the US polls ever have Hillary 2:1 up on Trump? They did not. There might have been a 10 point lead here or there, perhaps even 11 points. Fillon bests Le Pen between 65:35 and 72:28. That's not close. That's 40-1 territory, not 6-1.

Le Pen had a chance: and that was that it would be her in the high 20s in the first round, and the six five dwarves (Sarkozy, Macron, Hollande, Melachon and Bayrou) all in the mid teens.

But Hollande and Sarkozy have gone, and Bayrou will likely step aside. Against Fillon or Macron, she's absolutely slaughtered. As happened even in the most depressed regions of France in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan attack.

I really struggle to see the point of UKIP now. At best they are a 'backpocket party' to be kept alive in case the Tories renege on Brexit. But really they were only ever necessary to ensure we left the EU and now that looks like happening I see no point in keeping yet another party alive to pollute our politics (and I consider all parties to be pollution in the political landscape not just UKIP)

@rcs1000 - do you think Macron can beat Fillon if they were the final two?

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

The notion that Le Pen is fading may be something of an exaggeration. The French presidential polls are complex - an entire series of questions is asked using a range of possible candidates - and she appears as third in the first round in only this specific scenario. And even then she's only four points adrift of the first place contender. I believe that she still places second or joint second in all of the other scenarios polled.

All of that said, based on my (very limited) knowledge of the French situation, I would still expect Fillon to win the run-off.

Probably.

She was at 32% in the polls. She's now at about 24%.

What term, other than 'fading', would you prefer?

Strategically redeploying her potential vote?

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

The notion that Le Pen is fading may be something of an exaggeration. The French presidential polls are complex - an entire series of questions is asked using a range of possible candidates - and she appears as third in the first round in only this specific scenario. And even then she's only four points adrift of the first place contender. I believe that she still places second or joint second in all of the other scenarios polled.

All of that said, based on my (very limited) knowledge of the French situation, I would still expect Fillon to win the run-off.

Probably.

She was at 32% in the polls. She's now at about 24%.

What term, other than 'fading', would you prefer?

Strategically redeploying her potential vote?

negative growth?

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Fillon is Thatcher. Macron is Blair.

I would very much enjoy a face off between the two (albeit solely from a desire for amusement).

Disclaimer: I met Macron in late 2015, and was very impressed. At a personal level he was clearly extremely bright and understood a lot of France's problems. But I wonder if he has the cojones to take on the vested interests in France.

7/1 with Shadsy on these final two seems a reasonable punt, but is it better elsewhere?

SeanT said:

matt said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Sounds like it's in the baggage claim, which is landside.

FWIW an airport is a very ISIS-y target. Spreads terror around travelling. More impact than some casual drive-by in the street.

On the other hand the shooter is apparently alive and in custody (how the hell do you manage that against armed US cops??), which is not very ISIS-y at all.

Wasn't there a mass panic at a US airport a couple of months ago, the descriptions of which were quite horrifying? Doesn't take much to cause a lot of deaths and injuries.

Yes, JFK I think.

LAX I recall. Which is probably the 9th circle of hell at the best of times.

I stand corrected.

Yes, LAX is truly horrible.

America has really shite airports. And rubbish airlines.

And a couple of decent ones, like JetBlue and Virgin America. And it's not like BA is anything to write home about these days.

I agree that most American airports are a s**tshow, and the way that domestic baggage reclaim is open to anyone who wants to walk off the street was probably the reason it was targetted in this incident.

rpjs said:

SeanT said:

matt said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Sounds like it's in the baggage claim, which is landside.

FWIW an airport is a very ISIS-y target. Spreads terror around travelling. More impact than some casual drive-by in the street.

On the other hand the shooter is apparently alive and in custody (how the hell do you manage that against armed US cops??), which is not very ISIS-y at all.

Wasn't there a mass panic at a US airport a couple of months ago, the descriptions of which were quite horrifying? Doesn't take much to cause a lot of deaths and injuries.

Yes, JFK I think.

LAX I recall. Which is probably the 9th circle of hell at the best of times.

I stand corrected.

Yes, LAX is truly horrible.

America has really shite airports. And rubbish airlines.

And a couple of decent ones, like JetBlue and Virgin America. And it's not like BA is anything to write home about these days.

I agree that most American airports are a s**tshow, and the way that domestic baggage reclaim is open to anyone who wants to walk off the street was probably the reason it was targetted in this incident.

To be honest, all commercial airlines are shit. If you have to travel, it's best to just charter.

(True story time. I was at a party, and there was a loud, drunk and obnoxious person there. She said "My husband and I went to India for Christmas, and - of course - we flew First Class." I couldn't hold myself back. I looked her in the eye and said, in a voice of utter incredulity "You fly commercial???")

((I don't really charter planes.))

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

FormerToryOrange said:

Calling local by - elections "real elections" and trying to extrapolate anything from the outcomes is a bit desperate. Mark Senior territory.

A current rolling average for the Westminster VI polls puts the Lib Dems on about 9%, or 1pt up on the 2015 GE. Plug all of the party shares into the Electoral Calculus model and the Lib Dems come out of a 2020 election on the revised boundaries with five seats (although that's still five more than either the Greens or Ukip!)

Recent polling results also appear to suggest that, if there was any significant bounce post-Richmond Park, it has mostly abated - though I think we need more data to establish for certain whether there is any discernible trend in Lib Dem support one way or another, or if they've resumed their long-term pattern of stagnation. Regardless, they still have an awful lot of work to do.

Polls are a snapshot of opinion a bit like the advisory referendum.

Now now... the Liberal Democrats were on about 8% for a couple of years before the election, they got 8% in the election, and have been on 8% pretty consistently since the election (possibly with a tiny, tiny uptick in the last few months.)

If there were an election in the near future, it would therefore be perfectly reasonable to assume that they would get... 8%. Or something pretty damned close. That doesn't mean that they can't do better, of course, it's just that there's little indication at present that they will. The polls were almost much bang on in terms of vote share for all the smaller parties in 2015, as you know perfectly well, and there's no particular reason to suppose they are wildly out of kilter now - any more than there's any particular reason to suppose that the SNP aren't still on somewhere around 50% for the next GE in Scotland.

When you take snapshots of something over and over and over and over again and they are all practically the same, it's a fair bet that said thing isn't moving very far.

SeanT said:

matt said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Sounds like it's in the baggage claim, which is landside.

FWIW an airport is a very ISIS-y target. Spreads terror around travelling. More impact than some casual drive-by in the street.

On the other hand the shooter is apparently alive and in custody (how the hell do you manage that against armed US cops??), which is not very ISIS-y at all.

Wasn't there a mass panic at a US airport a couple of months ago, the descriptions of which were quite horrifying? Doesn't take much to cause a lot of deaths and injuries.

Yes, JFK I think.

LAX I recall. Which is probably the 9th circle of hell at the best of times.

I stand corrected.

Yes, LAX is truly horrible.

America has really shite airports. And rubbish airlines.

I use AA a great deal because they are convenient and are part of One World. Their drinks policy is puritan.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Not that I want her to win, but how many times did Trump fade in the polls? And in France we are talking about more complex system of multi-round voting.

But Trump also got to ride the most popular political party in the US, that regularly polled more than 50% and controlled the vast majority of states. He was also facing a truly abysmal Democrat candidate, who was - at best - a serial liar, and looked like she was hiding a serious medical condition.

The Front National has underperformed - often by large margins - its opinion poll ratings in recent years. Dromedary calculated that, taking the December 2015 Regional elections, when the FN was polling 32% rather than 24%, and assuming that they got 100% of the increase in turnout (i.e. going from 58% at the Regionals to 80% in Presidential), that they would still be 10 points adrift.

That's a staggering difference. Did the US polls ever have Hillary 2:1 up on Trump? They did not. There might have been a 10 point lead here or there, perhaps even 11 points. Fillon bests Le Pen between 65:35 and 72:28. That's not close. That's 40-1 territory, not 6-1.

Le Pen had a chance: and that was that it would be her in the high 20s in the first round, and the six five dwarves (Sarkozy, Macron, Hollande, Melachon and Bayrou) all in the mid teens.

But Hollande and Sarkozy have gone, and Bayrou will likely step aside. Against Fillon or Macron, she's absolutely slaughtered. As happened even in the most depressed regions of France in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan attack.

In round 1 in 2002 and 2012 the FN the Le Pens overperformed their poll rating

rcs1000 said:

rpjs said:

SeanT said:

matt said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

‏@NBCNightlyNews 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Multiple people dead after shooting at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood airport, federal officials tell @NBCNightlyNews - @PeteWilliamsNBC

One dead, nine injuries, suspect in custody is the latest report. Fingers crossed that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/

Sounds like it's in the baggage claim, which is landside.

FWIW an airport is a very ISIS-y target. Spreads terror around travelling. More impact than some casual drive-by in the street.

On the other hand the shooter is apparently alive and in custody (how the hell do you manage that against armed US cops??), which is not very ISIS-y at all.

Wasn't there a mass panic at a US airport a couple of months ago, the descriptions of which were quite horrifying? Doesn't take much to cause a lot of deaths and injuries.

Yes, JFK I think.

LAX I recall. Which is probably the 9th circle of hell at the best of times.

I stand corrected.

Yes, LAX is truly horrible.

America has really shite airports. And rubbish airlines.

And a couple of decent ones, like JetBlue and Virgin America. And it's not like BA is anything to write home about these days.

I agree that most American airports are a s**tshow, and the way that domestic baggage reclaim is open to anyone who wants to walk off the street was probably the reason it was targetted in this incident.

To be honest, all commercial airlines are shit. If you have to travel, it's best to just charter.

(True story time. I was at a party, and there was a loud, drunk and obnoxious person there. She said "My husband and I went to India for Christmas, and - of course - we flew First Class." I couldn't hold myself back. I looked her in the eye and said, in a voice of utter incredulity "You fly commercial???")

((I don't really charter planes.))

for that story!

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Yes but the PS candidate is not going to be Montebourg it is going to be Valls according to all the PS primary polls and that same poll showed in a Fillon, Le Pen, Valls, Macron race Fillon gets 26%, Le Pen 23%, Macron 18% and Valls 13%. With Bayrou Macron does even worse falling to 16% with Fillon on 23% and Le Pen on 22%. Unless Valls loses the PS nomination Macron has next to no chance of getting into the final 2

http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/05012017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_5.pdf

Clearly this is some new meaning of the phrase "no chance" that I was previously unaware of.

Macron is further behind Le Pen than Le Pen is behind Fillon with or without Bayrou if Valls is PS candidate so that is pretty much no chance yes

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Yes but the PS candidate is not going to be Montebourg it is going to be Valls according to all the PS primary polls and that same poll showed in a Fillon, Le Pen, Valls, Macron race Fillon gets 26%, Le Pen 23%, Macron 18% and Valls 13%. With Bayrou Macron does even worse falling to 16% with Fillon on 23% and Le Pen on 22%. Unless Valls loses the PS nomination Macron has next to no chance of getting into the final 2

http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/05012017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_5.pdf

Clearly this is some new meaning of the phrase "no chance" that I was previously unaware of.

Macron is further behind Le Pen than Le Pen is behind Fillon with or without Bayrou if Valls is PS candidate so that is pretty much no chance yes

One in a hundred is "no chance".

What is your definition, for future reference.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Not that I want her to win, but how many times did Trump fade in the polls? And in France we are talking about more complex system of multi-round voting.

But Trump also got to ride the most popular political party in the US, that regularly polled more than 50% and controlled the vast majority of states. He was also facing a truly abysmal Democrat candidate, who was - at best - a serial liar, and looked like she was hiding a serious medical condition.

The Front National has underperformed - often by large margins - its opinion poll ratings in recent years. Dromedary calculated that, taking the December 2015 Regional elections, when the FN was polling 32% rather than 24%, and assuming that they got 100% of the increase in turnout (i.e. going from 58% at the Regionals to 80% in Presidential), that they would still be 10 points adrift.

That's a staggering difference. Did the US polls ever have Hillary 2:1 up on Trump? They did not. There might have been a 10 point lead here or there, perhaps even 11 points. Fillon bests Le Pen between 65:35 and 72:28. That's not close. That's 40-1 territory, not 6-1.

Le Pen had a chance: and that was that it would be her in the high 20s in the first round, and the six five dwarves (Sarkozy, Macron, Hollande, Melachon and Bayrou) all in the mid teens.

But Hollande and Sarkozy have gone, and Bayrou will likely step aside. Against Fillon or Macron, she's absolutely slaughtered. As happened even in the most depressed regions of France in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan attack.

In round 1 in 2002 and 2012 the FN the Le Pens overperformed their poll rating

Source?

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Yes but the PS candidate is not going to be Montebourg it is going to be Valls according to all the PS primary polls and that same poll showed in a Fillon, Le Pen, Valls, Macron race Fillon gets 26%, Le Pen 23%, Macron 18% and Valls 13%. With Bayrou Macron does even worse falling to 16% with Fillon on 23% and Le Pen on 22%. Unless Valls loses the PS nomination Macron has next to no chance of getting into the final 2

http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/05012017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_5.pdf

Clearly this is some new meaning of the phrase "no chance" that I was previously unaware of.

Macron is further behind Le Pen than Le Pen is behind Fillon with or without Bayrou if Valls is PS candidate so that is pretty much no chance yes

One in a hundred is "no chance".

What is your definition, for future reference.

There is a chance an asteroid will land in the street in the next 5 minutes I said 'pretty much' no chance for a reason. New PS poll has Valls leading on 43% to 25% for Montebourg and 22% for Hamon in round 1. In round 2 Valls beats Montebourg 55% to 45% and Hamon 57% to 43%
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/01/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-de-vote-à-la-primaire-du-PS-et-de-ses-alliés-France-TV.pdf

Richard_Tyndall said:

I really struggle to see the point of UKIP now. At best they are a 'backpocket party' to be kept alive in case the Tories renege on Brexit. But really they were only ever necessary to ensure we left the EU and now that looks like happening I see no point in keeping yet another party alive to pollute our politics (and I consider all parties to be pollution in the political landscape not just UKIP)

Perhaps they will eventually fade away, perhaps not. I think it depends on the Labour Party. My belief is that far more of Ukip's support is now drawn from traditional Labour than from traditional Tory electors: since Brexit, it essentially seems to be an alliance of traditional, social conservative white working class Labour voters who feel that the party no longer either represents them or likes them very much; a residue of the hard line Eurosceptic Right that still won't trust the Tories; and the 2-3% of voters who are most sympathetic to the Far Right and may have voted BNP more than once in the past.

So long as those ex-Labour voters still feel they have nowhere to go, Ukip should continue to poll in double figures. So the ball is very much in Labour's court - unless Theresa May can convince more of them to come over to the Tories. I suspect that many or most of this group of voters are culturally averse to the Conservatives and very reluctant to consider voting for them, but I think that the Tories are organising in parts of the Labour heartland and are going to try to win them over anyway.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Confirmed

@jasian12345 55s55 seconds ago
More shots fired in the parking garage at Fort Lauderdale. #FtLauderdale

On the feed they're saying multiple shooters and multiple locations.

Watching CNN and there seems to be a lot of confusion and jumpiness by the police (obviously) but no real indication of additional shooters

Just announced shooter's name is Esteban Santiago - had a military ID on him. Unclear if ID is real. - FL Sen Bill Nelson on CNN, says he got it from head of TSA - Adm Neffinger.

rpjs said:

Just announced shooter's name is Esteban Santiago - had a military ID on him. Unclear if ID is real. - FL Sen Bill Nelson on CNN, says he got it from head of TSA - Adm Neffinger.

Mexican terrorism following wall building plans?

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Le Pen is fading

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/817431010396741632



This is surely Fillon's, barring a terror nightmare. What are the odds on him?

Not that I want her to win, but how many times did Trump fade in the polls? And in France we are talking about more complex system of multi-round voting.

But Trump also got to ride the most popular political party in the US, that regularly polled more than 50% and controlled the vast majority of states. He was also facing a truly abysmal Democrat candidate, who was - at best - a serial liar, and looked like she was hiding a serious medical condition.

The Front National has underperformed - often by large margins - its opinion poll ratings in recent years. Dromedary calculated that, taking the December 2015 Regional elections, when the FN was polling 32% rather than 24%, and assuming that they got 100% of the increase in turnout (i.e. going from 58% at the Regionals to 80% in Presidential), that they would still be 10 points adrift.

That's a staggering difference. Did the US polls ever have Hillary 2:1 up on Trump? They did not. There might have been a 10 point lead here or there, perhaps even 11 points. Fillon bests Le Pen between 65:35 and 72:28. That's not close. That's 40-1 territory, not 6-1.

Le Pen had a chance: and that was that it would be her in the high 20s in the first round, and the six five dwarves (Sarkozy, Macron, Hollande, Melachon and Bayrou) all in the mid teens.

But Hollande and Sarkozy have gone, and Bayrou will likely step aside. Against Fillon or Macron, she's absolutely slaughtered. As happened even in the most depressed regions of France in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan attack.

In round 1 in 2002 and 2012 the FN the Le Pens overperformed their poll rating

Source?

Final 2002 poll had Jean Marie Le Pen on 14.5% and he got 16.86%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

Final 2012 polls had Marine Le Pen on 16% and 17% and she got 17.9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_

rpjs said:

Just announced shooter's name is Esteban Santiago - had a military ID on him. Unclear if ID is real. - FL Sen Bill Nelson on CNN, says he got it from head of TSA - Adm Neffinger.

Certainly never heard of a Muslim called Esteban before, maybe not ISIS after all

Suspect is living in Naples, FL, reported to have served in military but not clear if still serving.

Philip_Thompson said:

SeanT said:

2nd shooter "confirmed" by Fox

Is it definite that the first suspect in custody is a shooter and not an innocent? The Germans nicked the wrong person at first the other day and its unusual to have an armed suspect arrested rather than shot in these scenarios in the US.

SeanT said:

rpjs said:

CBS saying shooter Esteban Santiago is from NJ and was bearing multiple weapons and wearing a "dark uniform". None of the media I'm watching are reporting any suggestion that there are confirmed other shooters. Live footage is showing police on alert; searching areas, crouched behind vehicles with rifles etc.

Try Fox, or the Live Audio Feed

Fox currently saying "no evidence" of a second shooter.

MSNBC say there are rumours of a second shooter but no confirmation from law enforcement.

nunu said:

Fort Lauderdale is a millatry town right?

Didn't think so, I thought it was basically a retirement town of old people.

Bit weird Sky News haven't gone to Fox for breaking of this shooting. Normally they are very quick to go over to US coverage when there is an ongoing incident.

Instead they are banging on about Trump.

Dangerous Europhile drivers about...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-38534069

Some light relief:

https://twitter.com/theuptake/status/817452214125883393

Shooter (26-year-old Esteban Santiago, of New Jersey) was dressed in a Star Wars shirt apparently.

Floater said:

rcs1000 said:

rpjs said:

Just announced shooter's name is Esteban Santiago - had a military ID on him. Unclear if ID is real. - FL Sen Bill Nelson on CNN, says he got it from head of TSA - Adm Neffinger.

Mexican terrorism following wall building plans?

How many dead Robert?

I thought my sense of humor was dark........

More than 3,000 people died in road accidents today.