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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since

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    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    that is how a lot will think
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

    Wow. Link?
    Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.
    Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.
    If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.
    As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?
    When you search for what? lol
    Have you received any knocks (thumping) on the front door in the wee hours of the morning yet?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817482097350811648

    *Buffs Nails*

    I posted exactly that after the Tory conference and a few PBers pooh-poohed it.

    See my sources were right, Brexit has the potential to lead to a donors' strike it.
    What's he gonna do, stop funding the Tories so Corbyn's Labour has a better chance of winning?

    Exactly. He has nowhere to go.
    No, it forces pressure on Mrs May, Labour via the Unions are well funded, does Mrs May really want to go down in history as the Tory leader that didn't win a majority against Corbyn.

    Why give you money to someone who ruins your business.
    And how good would it look if she changed her policy based on what a few rich donors wanted?
    You mean Prime Ministers have never based/changed policy on what donors wish it to be?
    May has Carte Blanche, all the models point to overwhelming wins at the next GE right now. If Labour didn't have Corbyn it might be different, but they do. So it isn't.
    Strange things do happen. Cameron couldn't get a majority vs Brown after the worst financial crash in living memory
    Alot of people always vote for the incumbent government despite what they tell pollsters. Makes the runes look even worse for Corbyn if anything.
    That simply is not true.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    If Barack Obama is still in office on 20th January, there will have been three consecutive POTUSes who have served two full terms each. The last time that happened was in 1801-1825.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rpjs said:

    Tim_B said:

    The state of emergency is now in effect -they said the rain would start at 2pm and it did. Temperature are dropping and will reach freezing in an hour or so, so it will switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to snow overnight. We're expecting about 4 inches.

    Local TV stations have suspended regular programming and have wall to wall weather coverage. They have correspondents all over the ATL metro, for example WSB "Severe Storm Team 2" and Action News folks are breathlessly reporting every flurry and sleet report, and traffic jams. HD Radar, interactive traffic flow maps - you name it they have it.

    The Weather Channel, a nationwide channel has reporters all over Atlanta, and shows all the various models showing projected snowfall etc. (The Weather Channel studios are in Atlanta).

    One has to wonder how viewers in Fargo, Bismarck or International Falls view this saturation coverage of a 4 inch snow storm, (which will shut the place down for 2 to 3 days) compared to what they regularly get. I suspect either a wry smile or just outright contempt for southern wusses.

    It is almost mesmeric to watch though - an enjoyable slow motion train wreck

    Well, we in New York also make disparaging remarks about Southerners not coping with trivial amounts of snow, but we would fall over with the sort of snow North Dakota regularly gets. It's simply not worth investing in the necessary infrastructure to cope with snow falls you might only get once a twice a winter, and sometimes not at all.
    It was 18 F this morning in sunny Damascus (MD, not Syria). Our news coverage went bonkers about the dusting of snow we got last night, but people (at least in these rural parts) do not really fuss until it is over 2' in one dump.

    But friends in Ottawa find that risible. They regularly have 10' piles of snow by the end of the winter because, unlike here, the snow does not melt away between snowfalls but stays all winter. I would find that really tough. That's my inner snowbird calling out.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

    I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

    I think May will do alright.
    /blockquote>

    Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing
    Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

    I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

    I think May will do alright.
    Another factor in Copeland?

    Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

    Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland
    Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing
    The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who
    Sellafield are the biggest employer there, with quite a lot of well paid jobs.

    Copeland will be won by a local candidate fighting on local issues.
    Labour runs and riders in Nukeland:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/corbyn-candidate-rachel-holliday-joins-race-to-be-labours-copeland-byelection-mp-2017-1
    Definitely a local candidate for local issues. I think Labour is going to win and is value still. This is not a place where May's party will thrive.
    The combined Tory and UKIP vote in Copeland was 52% at the last election, Labour got 42%. Even if the Labour vote remained unchanged ( and it is down in the national polls) if the Tories squeeze the UKIP vote enough they could win
    But a lot of those UKIP voters are ex-Labour voters more likely to support Labour than the Tories.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MTimT said:

    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

    Wow. Link?
    As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?
    When you search for what? lol
    Have you received any knocks (thumping) on the front door in the wee hours of the morning yet?
    Not yet, I'm not searching for them they just come up with the other free porn. A couple times I've clicked on stuff that i thought was legit then the "reciever" looked suspicously underage. I clicked out of it ofcourse.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited January 2017
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

    I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

    I think May will do alright.
    /blockquote>

    Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing
    Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

    I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

    I think May will do alright.
    Another factor in Copeland?

    Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

    Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland
    Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing
    The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who
    Sellafield are the biggest employer there, with quite a lot of well paid jobs.

    Copeland will be won by a local candidate fighting on local issues.
    Labour runs and riders in Nukeland:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/corbyn-candidate-rachel-holliday-joins-race-to-be-labours-copeland-byelection-mp-2017-1
    Definitely a local candidate for local issues. I think Labour is going to win and is value still. This is not a place where May's party will thrive.
    The combined Tory and UKIP vote in Copeland was 52% at the last election, Labour got 42%. Even if the Labour vote remained unchanged ( and it is down in the national polls) if the Tories squeeze the UKIP vote enough they could win
    But a lot of those UKIP voters are ex-Labour voters more likely to support Labour than the Tories.
    Not in the present Brexit climate with Corbyn backing unrestricted free movement
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited January 2017
    oh so thats why he was shouting "i'm not jewish", he has mental illness and was hearing voices, he must of thought some of the people in the airport were taunting him for being jewish (eventhough he isn't and no one was actually saying anything). Sad. Either that or he is a big fan of Alex Jones.
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    While I am fiercely anti-Brexit I have to agree with Sean T on one point - i am paid in dollars and my my take home salary has risen by 18% over the year. More than 2000 gbp per month.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AnneJGP said:

    Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

    They said that Brown was the only game in town in 2007, the point is many could fill her shoes. The list of potential replacements is long and broad. Whether they would want to do it now is another question. Who do I think would be interesting in the long run? Mark Harper.
    Mr Brown was the only game in town then because he'd spent years seeing off any potential contenders.
    Not true. It was mainly the Blair wing that had been seeing off likely challengers (after all, Blair was the incumbent they'd be challenging). Look at Gordon Brown's cabinet which included David Miliband, James Purnell and Alan Johnson amongst other potential leaders.

    Similarly there are many conceivable alternatives to Theresa May, some of whom must be ruing their decisions not to throw their hats in the ring last year against the unstoppable Boris! Theresa May is prime minister because she had the guts to stand, and the good fortune to be the only remaining big beast in the contest after Michael Gove blew his own as well as Boris's bloody doors off.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    isam said:

    Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

    I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

    Luckily the Cameroons are useless. Look at Osborne. When Portillo and Hague were cast out of power, they gained a new likeability and career rejuvination followed. Osborne by contrast has engaged in transparent hissy plots.
    Sounds like Osborne is going for a new career in panto....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    New thread!
This discussion has been closed.