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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best
A few months ago Harry Hayfield, PB’s local election specialist, introduced a new element in his regular monitoring of local by-election: dividing them up into whether the local authority areas voted REMAIN or LEAVE on June 23rd. This enables us to compare the two areas.
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It isn't really surprising it it? SNP did better once they lost the referendum too.
I think UKIP will only really play a part again if the establishment find smart arse ways of trying to stall or prevent our leaving.
It may simply be that Remania is more urban, so left wingers are inclined to Labour, while Leaverstan is more rural, so lefties prefer a milder alternative to Labour. It may also reflect that LDs run a better ground game in the Shires.
It does bode well for LD gains in May either way.
https://capx.co/labour-is-ludicrous-but-its-no-laughing-matter/
"So hapless in fact, he makes Iain Duncan Smith’s stewardship of the Conservative party seem a triumph of Bismarckian proportions. It’s one thing being wrong but quite another to be so inept. And a politician who cannot even appear to stand up for himself is a politician who invites contempt. A party can survive mere unpopularity but it will be sunk by ridicule."
All of that said, based on my (very limited) knowledge of the French situation, I would still expect Fillon to win the run-off.
Probably.
That said, local elections traditionally suffer from low turnout, and the Lib Dems are determined campaigners operating from a badly depleted base. They did make a little progress last May; this May coming, they might do better again.
We should also bear in mind that there's a world of difference between voting in an election to choose who organises library opening hours and bin collections, and an election to decide who forms a Government.
And hence we have Jezza.
Of course it is politically unelectable as politics now occupies the centre ground, but I see why it's there.
Sarkozy failing to get the Republican nomination was bad for Le Pen as he would have been her preferred opponent.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/shots-fired-fort-lauderdale-airport-live/
Recent polling results also appear to suggest that, if there was any significant bounce post-Richmond Park, it has mostly abated - though I think we need more data to establish for certain whether there is any discernible trend in Lib Dem support one way or another, or if they've resumed their long-term pattern of stagnation. Regardless, they still have an awful lot of work to do.
I am actually amazed (mildly, this is England, after all) that no one is on the streets about it.
I would very much enjoy a face off between the two (albeit solely from a desire for amusement).
Disclaimer: I met Macron in late 2015, and was very impressed. At a personal level he was clearly extremely bright and understood a lot of France's problems. But I wonder if he has the cojones to take on the vested interests in France.
What term, other than 'fading', would you prefer?
Thankfully, this one looks like it's over pretty quickly.
Using an exponential moving average on national polls, the current position (and the movement over the last two months) is as follows;
Con 40.4% (-0.3%)
Lab 27.9% (-1.0%)
LD 9.2% (+1.3%)
UKIP 12.5% (+0.5%)
Extrapolating forward four months to May 2017 gives
Con 39.8%
Lab 25.9%
LD 11.8%
UKIP 13.5%
Extrapolating forward another 36 months to May 2020 gives
Con 35.0%
Lab 9.9%
LD 32.6%
UKIP 21.5%
Baxtering this gives the Tories 4 short of a majority as follows:
Con 322
Lab 9
LD 215
UKIP 25
The Front National has underperformed - often by large margins - its opinion poll ratings in recent years. Dromedary calculated that, taking the December 2015 Regional elections, when the FN was polling 32% rather than 24%, and assuming that they got 100% of the increase in turnout (i.e. going from 58% at the Regionals to 80% in Presidential), that they would still be 10 points adrift.
That's a staggering difference. Did the US polls ever have Hillary 2:1 up on Trump? They did not. There might have been a 10 point lead here or there, perhaps even 11 points. Fillon bests Le Pen between 65:35 and 72:28. That's not close. That's 40-1 territory, not 6-1.
Le Pen had a chance: and that was that it would be her in the high 20s in the first round, and the six five dwarves (Sarkozy, Macron, Hollande, Melachon and Bayrou) all in the mid teens.
But Hollande and Sarkozy have gone, and Bayrou will likely step aside. Against Fillon or Macron, she's absolutely slaughtered. As happened even in the most depressed regions of France in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan attack.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/08/the-terrifying-jfk-airport-shooting-that-wasnt.html
A week ago I was feeling really smug, having bought Macron in the 20s, and sold him between 9 and 12. (Netting myself enough for half a case of the Terrazas Malbec.)
Now I'm feeling dumb. He's at 7s, and I'm thinking he definitely beats Le Pen, and is probably a 25% shot against Fillon. What chance he overtakes Le Pen? Probably one in the three.
So, 33% * 25% + (what) 10% * 90% is about what's on offer now...
I agree that most American airports are a s**tshow, and the way that domestic baggage reclaim is open to anyone who wants to walk off the street was probably the reason it was targetted in this incident.
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/05012017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_5.pdf
Of course in the unlikely event it is Valls/Macron v Le Pen her chances of becoming president actually increase as she would be the candidate of the right, not Fillon
(True story time. I was at a party, and there was a loud, drunk and obnoxious person there. She said "My husband and I went to India for Christmas, and - of course - we flew First Class." I couldn't hold myself back. I looked her in the eye and said, in a voice of utter incredulity "You fly commercial???")
((I don't really charter planes.))
If there were an election in the near future, it would therefore be perfectly reasonable to assume that they would get... 8%. Or something pretty damned close. That doesn't mean that they can't do better, of course, it's just that there's little indication at present that they will. The polls were almost much bang on in terms of vote share for all the smaller parties in 2015, as you know perfectly well, and there's no particular reason to suppose they are wildly out of kilter now - any more than there's any particular reason to suppose that the SNP aren't still on somewhere around 50% for the next GE in Scotland.
When you take snapshots of something over and over and over and over again and they are all practically the same, it's a fair bet that said thing isn't moving very far.
What is your definition, for future reference.
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/01/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-de-vote-à-la-primaire-du-PS-et-de-ses-alliés-France-TV.pdf
So long as those ex-Labour voters still feel they have nowhere to go, Ukip should continue to poll in double figures. So the ball is very much in Labour's court - unless Theresa May can convince more of them to come over to the Tories. I suspect that many or most of this group of voters are culturally averse to the Conservatives and very reluctant to consider voting for them, but I think that the Tories are organising in parts of the Labour heartland and are going to try to win them over anyway.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Hospital-campaigner-and-councillor-enter-race-to-become-MP-796db60f-0626-4c90-827c-e1205603d792-ds
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
Final 2012 polls had Marine Le Pen on 16% and 17% and she got 17.9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_
I thought my sense of humor was dark........
We have no idea whether this is islamic terrorism or not at this stage but do bear in mind you can't just go by a name. Leaving "Dave" aside, it could have been false ID or even someone who converted.
Instead they are banging on about Trump.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-38534069
https://twitter.com/theuptake/status/817452214125883393
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/817453188169236480