politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

Philip_Thompson said:

I'll be glad once we are rid of English Labour.

malcolmg said:

FPT,
DavidL said:

» show previous quotes
Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.

David, I was not thinking of independence, curent Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

FPT,
DavidL said:

» show previous quotes
Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.

David, I was not thinking of independence, curent Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.

As I said in my original post Malcolm SLAB do not make it easy. Their present leadership is simply not fit to run anything at a national or at a local level.

Off first footing now. Some traditions need to be retained.

Essexit said:

The long-anticipated demise of Ukip continues to not happen. As long as Corbyn's in post, the purples are probably going nowhere.

logical_song said:

MaxPB Posts: 11,355
11:24AM
Roger said:
Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

What a time to be alive!.


Down 10?


3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

Twenty four!

Is it too late to call Jack Bauer?!

Sandpit said:

Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

Twenty four!

Philip_Thompson said:

When was the last time either major party polled in the teens? Could Labour this Parliament?

Dura_Ace said:

SandyRentool said:

Assuming that the Nutty Boy does take UKIP in more of a WWC direction, things can only get worse unless Labour seriously tackles the concerns of voters in Hartlepool rather than Hampstead.

The next Labour manifesto should include the legalisation of dog fighting along with free chips and ganja then.

JosiasJessop said:

If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.

JosiasJessop said:

If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MaxPB said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB Posts: 11,355
11:24AM
Roger said:
Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

What a time to be alive!.


Down 10?


3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...

You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...

Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.

Did it not happen a few weeks ago that the BBC reported a 'Huge' 0.1% increase in inflation, in the same bulletin as decrying a 'Tiny' 0.1% drop in unemployment?

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think you're all missing the big picture, Labour have reduced the Tory lead by 2%.

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: apparently, Wehrlein's off to Sauber.
htt://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/815859189868335104

Looks good for Bottas to Mercedes.

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Choi
England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.

May 2009 was also the date of the EU Parliamentary election, in which Labour scored a paltry 15.7% nationally.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)

Yet scored 12% more a year later at the GE.

Ishmael_Z said:

MaxPB said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB Posts: 11,355
11:24AM
Roger said:
Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

What a time to be alive!.


Down 10?


3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...

You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Choi
England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

Morris_Dancer said:

If we're using ye olde definitions, villages were defined, I think, as just having a parish church and typically 150 residents or fewer (maybe a bakery but nothing fancy). A town was defined as having a market.

Did a spot of demographic research for fantasy-writing, and a city might only have a few thousand residents, which sounds very small now.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this poll is accurate, all things being equal, the Tories should be nailed on to take Copeland.

rural_voter said:

logical_song said:

"But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.

rural_voter said:

logical_song said:

"But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Choi
England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

Even though that's what we should probably be building each year. Much better to keep building small/medium new towns than push ever more people into the inner cities.

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FPT

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?

SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.

Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.

That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.

Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FPT

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?

SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.

Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.

That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.

Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.

Happy New Year malc

is this the big retirement one ? :-)

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FPT

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?

SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.

Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.

That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.

Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.

Happy New Year malc

is this the big retirement one ? :-)

Happy New Year Alan, I am thinking of going just a little bit longer, would be at too much of a loose end. Debating whether to take a new European position I have been offered that sounds interesting or stay where I am , depends if UK can come up with an incentive to stay. Plan for this year is to transfer my pension out to a SIPP, get my hands on a chunk of it.
Is your wife still there, expect there to be plenty churn again this year as they "Transform".

PS: Hope your business is going well, shoudl be good opportunities for you in near future.

justin124 said:

Ydoethur said
'However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable. '

On the other hand, Opinium has Labour at 31% based on fieldwork just a few days earlier.Mori puts them on 29% and the last ICM gave them 27%. This poll looks a bit odd!

Dromedary said:

A

justin124 said:

In Scotland I think Labour needs to take a much firmer anti -Independence position such as would have been adopted by John Smith , Donald Dewar and Robin Cook. It seems probable that any voters who have been inclined to switch to the SNP will have already done so, and that Labour needs to focus on winning back support from those attracted by Ruth Davidson. Interesting that the leaked poll has the SNP at 45% - which is 5% lower than at the 2015 Westminster election. Tory voters who were previously voting SNP on the basis of an anti-Labour tactical vote appear to have returned home. By firming up its own Unionist base Labour can wait for a continuation of the shine to fall off the SNP administration. Only at that point will the SNP switchers be likely to return home to Labour.

Dromedary said:

I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".

James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.

Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?

rcs1000 said:

Dromedary said:

I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".

James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.

Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?

France had serious terrorist attacks in 2015, and it didn't change Le Pen's polling.

Indeed, there were two sets of elections in 2015 in France and the Front National underperformed its polling in both cases. It also did very poorly in transfer votes in both. Even immediately after the Bataclan attack, in the most pro-FN region in France, and with Marine Le Pen herself standing against a colourless LR candidate, the FN still trailed by 10%.