A cursory search of Twitter shows lots of reports of violence, sexual assaults, attacks on churches., etc
This could be random, and coincidental. I genuinely don't know. It needs a serious journalist to give an overview. But the German media doesn't do that.
If you have a group who have been raised from birth to believe - men are superior to women, women who aren't wearing a tent are asking for it, their religion is the one true way, all other religions are foul garbage... you have two choices.
You can educate them in the mores of modern western society. Or you can let them be their current selves.
The problem with the former is that it would require a belief in current western society - that it is better than the alternatives. This would be so close to saying that white people are better that many progressive types would rather die.
The current situation rather reminds me of this -
"The usual sentence was: for a first offence, a warning -- a scolding, often without trial. After several offenses a sentence of confinement but with sentence suspended and the youngster placed on probation. A boy might be arrested many times and convicted several times before he was punished -- and then it would be merely confinement, with others like him from whom he learned still more criminal habits. If he kept out of major trouble while confined, he could usually evade most of even that mild punishment, be given probation -- 'paroled' in the jargon of the times.
This incredible sequence could go on for years while his crimes increased in frequency and viciousness, with no punishment whatever save rare dull-but-comfortable confinements. Then suddenly, usually by law on his eighteenth birthday, this so-called 'juvenile delinquent' becomes an adult criminal -- and sometimes wound up in only weeks or months in a death cell awaiting execution for murder."
accepted practice is a period of silence while the other side cook in their own juices.
we havent had that, weve have petulant foot stamping
I know, it's remarkable
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful.
Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
accepted practice is a period of silence while the other side cook in their own juices.
we havent had that, weve have petulant foot stamping
I know, it's remarkable
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful.
Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
Those that won, we will be happy when we can see the result of the referendum being implemented, rather than the transparent attempts from a large number of well connected elites to deny the clear wish of the people by whatever means necessary.
Politics like economics works in cycles. We seem to be at the dark point in the cycle as their is no hope. Events are likely to present somebody, probably within the Labour Party to be propelled into No.10. First of all Corbyn needs to resign/ forced out by ill health / die. Second the beacon of hope candidate needs to emerge with an agenda of hope and positive change. In 1992 Labour was being written off as being in a death spiral, look how things changed in 5 years. Labour won with the biggest majority since the 1930s!
The Tories currently have a very beatable leader, things are going to go wrong big style with Brexit. I still don't see an early GE happening. Labour could surprise us all. I for one would not vote for May as PM if you paid me, she is useless/ clueless. I used to vote Tory but will not vote for May as she is the personification of a vacuum. I might vote Lib Dem if Corbyn is still leader but if he is no longer leader I would vote for a moderate Labour leader like Hunt, Umunna or somebody not even that well known like Kier Starmer.
This constituency has had Tory MPs since 1910. My vote is wasted! I haven't lived in a marginal for 40 years.
Looking at the national picture though, more worrying than Labour-Tory cycles to me is the longer cycle that proceeded from Old Labour and One Nation Tories 1940-79, if not earlier, to a 1970s coup that installed Thatcher and Successors 1980-2017. (They're still in office.)
Apparently one reason it was possible to build 300,000 to 500,000 homes per year in the past is that 1945-79 governments almost ignored public sector debt. It was ~2x higher than today at times. They also discussed how to increase materials output with industry, so that shortages were avoided. That degree of government intervention is ruled out if everyone recites daily: 'we worship the market; it will provide our needs'.
Whoever challenges and articulates today's orthodoxy could, one assumes, gain the support of well over 25% of the electorate. They can see the housing shortage, the NHS problems, the lack of social care and gas and electricity overcharges for themselves.
The reason that few houses are built every year is that is quite specifically what the "system" wants.
If you wish to build houses, you must pass through a slow, expensive process. And then at the end pay very large fees to local government to be allowed to actually build the things.
If you put large taxes on something and restrict access to the main raw material (land to build on), then the result is inevitable.
The problem is a nexus of people who believe that human contaminate the landscape, those who wish to use house building to fund infrastructure development, nimbies and those who are invested in massive returns on property prices.
accepted practice is a period of silence while the other side cook in their own juices.
we havent had that, weve have petulant foot stamping
I know, it's remarkable
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful.
Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
I'm sure youll have lots of opportunity to laugh and guffaw at leavers and rightly so, but this discussion is about remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
accepted practice is a period of silence while the other side cook in their own juices.
we havent had that, weve have petulant foot stamping
I know, it's remarkable
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful.
Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".
James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.
Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?
France had serious terrorist attacks in 2015, and it didn't change Le Pen's polling.
Indeed, there were two sets of elections in 2015 in France and the Front National underperformed its polling in both cases. It also did very poorly in transfer votes in both. Even immediately after the Bataclan attack, in the most pro-FN region in France, and with Marine Le Pen herself standing against a colourless LR candidate, the FN still trailed by 10%.
This is good info on that side of the argument, but if the terror is increased does the non-effect or possible negative effect on Le Pen's voteshare scale? She has been banging on about immigration and Arabs for years. Fillon and Sarkozy and Hollande and Valls may all be seen as men of the past who are co-responsible for the present mess. Choosing someone as president who's previously held high government office - Fillon was PM for five whole years - is something that could change.
Meanwhile I am happy with my investment in Frexiteer longshot Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who is backed by rosbif Nigel Farage. I don't think he comes across as obnoxious abrasive enough to be a French Trump - his words are tough but his manner is mild - but then Le Pen isn't a French Ann Coulter either. But maybe her niece could give it some of this:
remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
They don't.
You wouldn't feel a teeny bit happy if it all went tits up?
It's all going to go tits up, but not for the country.
Nothing has actually happened yet....
No it hasn't. The predictions from some Brexiteers that delaying the invocation of Article 50 would force the EU to give us everything we want just to get rid of us haven't materialised either.
remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
They don't.
You wouldn't feel a teeny bit happy if it all went tits up?
It's all going to go tits up, but not for the country.
It's really very simple. Remainers believe the country will be better off (and not just economically) if it does not leave the EU. Ergo if Brexit doesn't happen it is a good outcome for their fellow citizens.
remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
They don't.
You wouldn't feel a teeny bit happy if it all went tits up?
It's all going to go tits up, but not for the country.
Nothing has actually happened yet....
No it hasn't. The predictions from some Brexiteers that delaying the invocation of Article 50 would force the EU to give us everything we want just to get rid of us haven't materialised either.
yes this is known as both sides lied and talked pure bollocks.
quite why anyone would take campaign spin at face value eludes me.
maybe you can explain why you give it such prominence in your posts
2017 may be as remarkable as 2016. We could have astonishing French and Dutch elections. Farage may return or create something of his own (Copeland?). So too might Blair (ok, yes I'm reaching), and we may have a splintering of Labour. We might have by-elections with Tory/Lab/New Lab/Split Lab/Lib/UKIP/Split UKIP/ Green as 'serious' parties.
There's also the minor matter of a blithering idiot as the most powerful person in the world too!
As my tip of the year (please don't follow it as I'm awful at tipping things) I'd suggest that Trump is way, way too short to be 2020 President. (2.30/2.32)
The market of the year has to be the French Presidential elections. I suspect fireworks.
remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
They don't.
You wouldn't feel a teeny bit happy if it all went tits up?
It's all going to go tits up, but not for the country.
Nothing has actually happened yet....
No it hasn't. The predictions from some Brexiteers that delaying the invocation of Article 50 would force the EU to give us everything we want just to get rid of us haven't materialised either.
Can't say I've heard of that particular prediction before. The delay was clearly justified due to the lack of any planning by government for the outcome.
remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
They don't.
You wouldn't feel a teeny bit happy if it all went tits up?
It's all going to go tits up, but not for the country.
Nothing has actually happened yet....
No it hasn't. The predictions from some Brexiteers that delaying the invocation of Article 50 would force the EU to give us everything we want just to get rid of us haven't materialised either.
Can't say I've heard of that particular prediction before. The delay was clearly justified due to the lack of any planning by government for the outcome.
It was a theme around the time Schultz was jumping up and down demanding A50 be invoked immediately.
Oh god back to the pantomime Brexit stuff...PB was much better this morning when taking the piss out of beer drinking habits of politicians.
I rather think it is sad that wine and beer drinking been separated by snobbery and other nonsense. One of the joys of visiting areas that actually grow the grapes and hops is meeting the people who actually produce them (yes, with the hops growers there is more of a disconnect with the breweries, but there is still alot of local stuff). Their attitude towards their product(s) is interesting (very little mythologising bollocks) - and nearly identical.
Death has been ominously quiet so far this year....
He may have taken a break from coming for celebrities, but before this year was a few hours old he cut a terrible swathe through young people in Istanbul.
Death has been ominously quiet so far this year....
He may have taken a break from coming for celebrities, but before this year was a few hours old he cut a terrible swathe through young people in Istanbul.
There's absolutely no question of Farron "helping a rainbow coalition" (whatever that means) of the current parties. The Conservatives might try that as a weapon but it's not got any credibility.
As for "destroying" Labour, why should anyone want to see a political party destroyed ? Labour is currently in a bad way but it will recover - it has before. Once it becomes a credible alternative, the notion of an LD-Lab Coalition will become not only less fanciful within the parties but outside them too.
The Conservatives will, in 2020, have to defend their record not just on Brexit but on other aspects of Government. We are three years from that and not even halfway through the current parliament.
The Liberal Democrats are acutely vulnerable to taint by association with Labour. They've moved leftwards since the election, and now have an established record of building coalitions against the instincts of their activist base - so why would they not do so with a partner with which they would feel (or certainly appear) to be more comfortable? If the Liberal Democrat leadership were to repudiate - loudly, publicly and repeatedly - any accommodation with either the current, extreme form of Labour or with Celtic Nationalism at Westminster, then they might get a hearing. But they can't and they won't, because ultimately the whole progressive alliance thing's the only way they're ever getting a chance to have FPTP replaced with PR - which is their most cherished desire - unless or until they can get Labour out of the way and become a party of Government in their own right. ....
I hope the Lib Dems make it absolutely clear that they will not enter a coalition with anyone. No ifs or buts. No pacts. No ministerial cars.
They should promise to support legislation they agree with and oppose legislation they disagree with, and repeat this message endlessly until we're sick and tired of hearing it.
Clearly they would support legislation that provides PR because they agree with it.
I believe Tim has already ruled out joining any coalition that does not legislate for PR. In effect that matches your view.
There's absolutely no question of Farron "helping a rainbow coalition" (whatever that means) of the current parties.
The Conservatives will, in 2020, have to defend their record not just on Brexit but on other aspects of Government. We are three years from that and not even halfway through the current parliament.
The Liberal Democrats are acutely vulnerable to taint by association with Labour. They've moved leftwards since the election, and now have an established record of building coalitions against the instincts of their activist base - so why would they not do so with a partner with which they would feel (or certainly appear) to be more comfortable? If the Liberal Democrat leadership were to repudiate - loudly, publicly and repeatedly - any accommodation with either the current, extreme form of Labour or with Celtic Nationalism at Westminster, then they might get a hearing. But they can't and they won't, because ultimately the whole progressive alliance thing's the only way they're ever getting a chance to have FPTP replaced with PR - which is their most cherished desire - unless or until they can get Labour out of the way and become a party of Government in their own right. ....
I hope the Lib Dems make it absolutely clear that they will not enter a coalition with anyone. No ifs or buts. No pacts. No ministerial cars.
They should promise to support legislation they agree with and oppose legislation they disagree with, and repeat this message endlessly until we're sick and tired of hearing it.
Clearly they would support legislation that provides PR because they agree with it.
I believe Tim has already ruled out joining any coalition that does not legislate for PR. In effect that matches your view.
Not quite. I think the Lib Dems should rule out any coalition. Period. No ifs or buts. Any other position will be exploited by opposing parties. Obviously, if any party offers legislation on PR then the Lib Dems should support it but it doesn't mean going into coalition with them.
There was an analogous discussion in Richmond Park about whether Sarah Olney should take the Lib Dem policy line of "no support for Article 50 unless there's a promise of a 2nd referendum" or "no support for Article 50 - period." The former is, in practice the same as the latter but Sarah went with the clear "No Article 50 - period". It cut through and she got her unambiguous mandate.
The former is, in practice the same as the latter but Sarah went with the clear "No Article 50 - period". It cut through and she got her unambiguous mandate.
One thing Trump has shown is that it's better to be unambiguous and contradictory than to prevaricate.
If cornered in an interview the Lib Dems could always embrace some UKIP logic - "Article 50 is the EU's rule and not what the people have voted for. They don't want to take any part in a process we don't control and isn't in our interests."
@GoodwinMJ: 2017 will be another hard year for the left Latest poll (change since last election) Germany 20% (-5) France 12% (-17) Netherlands 10% (-28)
Amazingly ill-informed comment by Goodwin. Correct (SPD+Left) figure for Germany is 29-36 (vs 34 last time), depending on the poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ . Include the Greens, who most people would think left-wing, and it's 39-46 (vs 43). There's been a small shift from left to further left, that's all. Netherlands is 29 vs 35 (Pvda+SP+GL): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017. France is 39 vs 39 (PS+FG+EM), though one can debate whether Macron (EM) is left or centre. Goodwin seems to have only bothered to look at social democrat parties and said that's the left, innit.
@GoodwinMJ: 2017 will be another hard year for the left Latest poll (change since last election) Germany 20% (-5) France 12% (-17) Netherlands 10% (-28)
Amazingly ill-informed comment by Goodwin. Correct (SPD+Left) figure for Germany is 29-36 (vs 34 last time), depending on the poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ . Include the Greens, who most people would think left-wing, and it's 39-46 (vs 43). There's been a small shift from left to further left, that's all. Netherlands is 29 vs 35 (Pvda+SP+GL): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017. France is 39 vs 39 (PS+FG+EM), though one can debate whether Macron (EM) is left or centre. Goodwin seems to have only bothered to look at social democrat parties and said that's the left, innit.
I partly agree. It's a simplistic analysis.
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
I wonder to what extent it's because the centre-right has moved to the left and squeezed them out? (And at the same time ignored their right flank and made way for populists to spring up.)
It's hard to remember now the time when the Tories were bitterly opposed to the introduction of the minimum wage for example.
@GoodwinMJ: 2017 will be another hard year for the left Latest poll (change since last election) Germany 20% (-5) France 12% (-17) Netherlands 10% (-28)
Amazingly ill-informed comment by Goodwin. Correct (SPD+Left) figure for Germany is 29-36 (vs 34 last time), depending on the poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ . Include the Greens, who most people would think left-wing, and it's 39-46 (vs 43). There's been a small shift from left to further left, that's all. Netherlands is 29 vs 35 (Pvda+SP+GL): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017. France is 39 vs 39 (PS+FG+EM), though one can debate whether Macron (EM) is left or centre. Goodwin seems to have only bothered to look at social democrat parties and said that's the left, innit.
I partly agree. It's a simplistic analysis.
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
Not true for PR based systems like the Dutch or Germans, though it would colour the balance of a coalition, even if is true for FPTP systems like us and the French.
What a bloody good darts match, smashed the record for 180s in a match, 42 I think, they were throwing them for fun in the end! MvG a very worthy champion.
@GoodwinMJ: 2017 will be another hard year for the left Latest poll (change since last election) Germany 20% (-5) France 12% (-17) Netherlands 10% (-28)
Amazingly ill-informed comment by Goodwin. Correct (SPD+Left) figure for Germany is 29-36 (vs 34 last time), depending on the poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ . Include the Greens, who most people would think left-wing, and it's 39-46 (vs 43). There's been a small shift from left to further left, that's all. Netherlands is 29 vs 35 (Pvda+SP+GL): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017. France is 39 vs 39 (PS+FG+EM), though one can debate whether Macron (EM) is left or centre. Goodwin seems to have only bothered to look at social democrat parties and said that's the left, innit.
I partly agree. It's a simplistic analysis.
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
I wonder to what extent it's because the centre-right has moved to the left and squeezed them out? (And at the same time ignored their right flank and made way for populists to spring up.)
It's hard to remember now the time when the Tories were bitterly opposed to the introduction of the minimum wage for example.
Every nation in Europe is now moving smartly to the right.
BTW it is also quite remarkable (on sober reflection, and to me) that the USA has elected (as I see it) an openly ethnocentric, misogynistic white president, who laughs contemptuously at minorities.
This is in the richest, most powerful democracy on the planet.
If liberal-lefties don't learn from this (they won't) they are doomed. The people have swung right. They don't care any more. Fuck accusations of "racism". No one gives a toss.
For all the huffing and puffing - consider what Atlee and Bevan would have made of the slogan "British Jobs for British Workers"...
How does it go? "I didn't leave the party. The party left me."
Consider in modern India, the political response to "Indian Jobs for Indian Workers". What is the Hindu for "duh??"...
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
Not true for PR based systems like the Dutch or Germans, though it would colour the balance of a coalition, even if is true for FPTP systems like us and the French.
It also depends whether centre-left and centre-right parties unite to keep the hard right out of power, as I expect to happen in Holland.
I have to say, right now, 2017 feels seriously ominous for the Left. There is no end (as we see, this week) to this bad news about Muslim migration and terror. It cannot end. Islamism is bent on our destruction and Europe (thanks Angela) has just imported millions of Muslims from war-torn countries.
If Le Pen doesn't win this year, someone like her will win, very soon. In the end (outside cuckolded Germany) white people will say No, Enough. And vote for Nazis, if necessary.
Actually I think the reverse is happening in the countries most affected - people see a million people turn up and just a few times a year there's a (admittedly very) nasty incident, so they conclude that numbers per se not as big a deal as they thought, though obviously they still worry about terrorism. The Schengen border crossings are largely free again (I've just crossed from Germany to Austria with no passport control whatever), the CDU is recovering in Germany, the FN are falling back in France, the Danish People's Party has lost more than a quarter of its voters in a year, the far right missed out in Austria against a Green ultra-European.
But I do agree that social democracy is in crisis nearly everywhere. The shift from moderate left to far left is near-ubiquitous, reflecting the lack of coherent social democratic vision that's seen as viable in our globalised world. As you say, in FPTP countries that means very serious trouble. In proportional countries, it's not such a problemn, as the old Cold War barriers to working with the far left have largely melted away.
If liberal-lefties don't learn from this (they won't) they are doomed. The people have swung right. They don't care any more. Fuck accusations of "racism". No one gives a toss.
It's not so much that nobody gives a toss, it's more that "racism" has lost any particular meaning. There was a time when you called someone a racist because they "don't want blacks living in our street", but people get called racist because they are worried about immigration, terrorism, general competition for employment and services, and many other things. Even when there is actual bigotry involved "racism" is the charge when it's nationality or religion that is the issue.
Basically if everything is racist, then nothing is racist.
A perfect example from just the other day was the nonsense in an article at the Guardian about decentralising whiteness when listening to music.
BTW it is also quite remarkable (on sober reflection, and to me) that the USA has elected (as I see it) an openly ethnocentric, misogynistic white president, who laughs contemptuously at minorities.
This is in the richest, most powerful democracy on the planet.
If liberal-lefties don't learn from this (they won't) they are doomed. The people have swung right. They don't care any more. Fuck accusations of "racism". No one gives a toss.
It's not really about right/left. Many of Trump's positions could have been taken from the Lib Dems (Iraq) or from the anti-capitalist left.
What he represents above all is a repudiation of a political bubble which seemed to have lost touch with the common sense of the man on the street and fallen victim to groupthink. A bubble which in its handling of the financial crisis in 2008, showed it had forgotten that the free market means allowing failure. In its naive pursuit of nation-building, it showed that it had forgotten about pursuing its own nation's interests.
@GoodwinMJ: 2017 will be another hard year for the left Latest poll (change since last election) Germany 20% (-5) France 12% (-17) Netherlands 10% (-28)
Amazingly ill-informed comment by Goodwin. Correct (SPD+Left) figure for Germany is 29-36 (vs 34 last time), depending on the poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ . Include the Greens, who most people would think left-wing, and it's 39-46 (vs 43). There's been a small shift from left to further left, that's all. Netherlands is 29 vs 35 (Pvda+SP+GL): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017. France is 39 vs 39 (PS+FG+EM), though one can debate whether Macron (EM) is left or centre. Goodwin seems to have only bothered to look at social democrat parties and said that's the left, innit.
I partly agree. It's a simplistic analysis.
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
I wonder to what extent it's because the centre-right has moved to the left and squeezed them out? (And at the same time ignored their right flank and made way for populists to spring up.)
It's hard to remember now the time when the Tories were bitterly opposed to the introduction of the minimum wage for example.
Every nation in Europe is now moving smartly to the right.
BTW it is also quite remarkable (on sober reflection, and to me) that the USA has elected (as I see it) an openly ethnocentric, misogynistic white president, who laughs contemptuously at minorities.
This is in the richest, most powerful democracy on the planet.
If liberal-lefties don't learn from this (they won't) they are doomed. The people have swung right. They don't care any more. Fuck accusations of "racism". No one gives a toss.
For all the huffing and puffing - consider what Atlee and Bevan would have made of the slogan "British Jobs for British Workers"...
How does it go? "I didn't leave the party. The party left me."
Consider in modern India, the political response to "Indian Jobs for Indian Workers". What is the Hindu for "duh??"...
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
Not true for PR based systems like the Dutch or Germans, though it would colour the balance of a coalition, even if is true for FPTP systems like us and the French.
Actually I think the reverse is happening in the countries most affected - people see a million people turn up and just a few times a year there's a (admittedly very) nasty incident, so they conclude that numbers per se not as big a deal as they thought, though obviously they still worry about terrorism. The Schengen border crossings are largely free again (I've just crossed from Germany to Austria with no passport control whatever), the CDU is recovering in Germany, the FN are falling back in France, the Danish People's Party has lost more than a quarter of its voters in a year, the far right missed out in Austria against a Green ultra-European.
But I do agree that social democracy is in crisis nearly everywhere. The shift from moderate left to far left is near-ubiquitous, reflecting the lack of coherent social democratic vision that's seen as viable in our globalised world. As you say, in FPTP countries that means very serious trouble. In proportional countries, it's not such a problemn, as the old Cold War barriers to working with the far left have largely melted away.
The absurdity is that we are at the point where the productivity differential between First, Second and Third World is dropping rapidly. India and China have zillions of people, yes, but all the educated ones are already working in factories etc. With the takeoff of their own consumption, both markets will be heading for bigger and bigger skilled labour squeezes. Wages are going up very fast.
The problem is that many on the left believe that the first world can't compete in anything economically *and* that there is nothing of intrinsic value in Western culture.
The ironic bit is that social services (combined with stable property rights, stable legal and political systems etc) are what enables the higher productivity in First world economies. The NHS makes people more productive....
We have a system that is worth defending (and espousing). And we should do so.
The truth is still interesting, however: we're seeing the death of European social democracy, or at least a very very serious decline.
And that in effect DOES mean the demise of the Left, as most European political systems need a large social democratic party for the Left to gain power (including the UK, if you see Labour as social democrat)
Not true for PR based systems like the Dutch or Germans, though it would colour the balance of a coalition, even if is true for FPTP systems like us and the French.
Actually I think the reverse is happening in the countries most affected - people see a million people turn up and just a few
But I do agree that social democracy is in crisis nearly everywhere. The shift from moderate left to far left is near-ubiquitous, reflecting the lack of coherent social democratic vision that's seen as viable in our globalised world. As you say, in FPTP countries that means very serious trouble. In proportional countries, it's not such a problemn, as the old Cold War barriers to working with the far left have largely melted away.
The absurdity is that we are at the point where the productivity differential between First, Second and Third World is dropping rapidly. India and China have zillions of people, yes, but all the educated ones are already working in factories etc. With the takeoff of their own consumption, both markets will be heading for bigger and bigger skilled labour squeezes. Wages are going up very fast.
The problem is that many on the left believe that the first world can't compete in anything economically *and* that there is nothing of intrinsic value in Western culture.
The ironic bit is that social services (combined with stable property rights, stable legal and political systems etc) are what enables the higher productivity in First world economies. The NHS makes people more productive....
We have a system that is worth defending (and espousing). And we should do so.
The evidence is that Western countries can compete effectively. It is only really us and the Yanks with massive trade deficits. Those weak and effete Germans and other EU countries compete very effectively economically.
@Seant, in France, the choice is between very right wing (Fillon) and Populist (Le Pen). The Left are irrelevant.
No, the left in France is divided. There is a substantial left wing vote, and economically Le Pen is quite left wing, just right wing on cultural issues.
"I think you underestimate the effect Islamic migration and Islamist terror are having on ordinary Europeans. We don't shrug and forget. We remember. And the memories build.
Until, eventually, the people react"
I think one thing we underestimate with particularly our French and German cousins is that when you have been through as much as they have (Verdun, WW I / II etc for the French, 1945 for the Germans etc) and when that past still plays a part in your national consciousness, then these terror attacks seem small in comparison. To put it bluntly, the terror attacks in Nice, Berlin and Paris are nothing to the death and destruction both nations have faced before.
That might change but I suspect not soon, which is why I do not think Le Pen will win in 2017 (although I suspect she does not want to win this time and is aiming for 2020, secure in the knowledge that Fillon is unlikely to have improved things and Islamic terrorism is set to continue.
Not sure the traditional right / left holds anymore. UKIP, BNP, FN, all right wing "socially", but propose lots of things which traditional left wing parties used to be heard uttering in relation to economics.
Re that Guardian article, I think more and more that Labour is doomed to oblivion. Consider this for the alternatives:
1. If you are a Brexit-leaning WWC Labour voter, you can go to UKIP, especially as Nuttall will pitch for your vote. Or you go to the Tories, for whom there seems to be less and less loathing.
2. If you a metropolitan leftie, Farron and his Lib Dem crew will appeal more and more. Personally, I think Farron is an arrogant, patronising wimp of a man with a face that looks as though he is permanently struggling with severe constipation. However, that "I know better than you and you are just a pleb" mentality will appeal to many of the hardcore metropolitan left (one of the big pluses for the LDs from the Brexit vote is that it has now wiped their past actions over tuition fees from the memory of many of these voters);
@Seant, in France, the choice is between very right wing (Fillon) and Populist (Le Pen). The Left are irrelevant.
Isn't it more that the left has fragmented: there is the Socialists, the Left Front, MoDem, En Marche and the Greens. Between them, they have 50% of the vote.
Re that Guardian article, I think more and more that Labour is doomed to oblivion. Consider this for the alternatives:
1. If you are a Brexit-leaning WWC Labour voter, you can go to UKIP, especially as Nuttall will pitch for your vote. Or you go to the Tories, for whom there seems to be less and less loathing.
2. If you a metropolitan leftie, Farron and his Lib Dem crew will appeal more and more. Personally, I think Farron is an arrogant, patronising wimp of a man with a face that looks as though he is permanently struggling with severe constipation. However, that "I know better than you and you are just a pleb" mentality will appeal to many of the hardcore metropolitan left (one of the big pluses for the LDs from the Brexit vote is that it has now wiped their past actions over tuition fees from the memory of many of these voters);
That does not really leave much left......
You seem to have missed that Tim Farron:
1) Is not Metropolitan 2) Is the only party leader whose parents could be classed as working class 3) Is Northern 4) Is unfashionably a socially conservative Christian
I think your Metropolitan Elite snobbery is showing...
The left are in power though at the moment in Canada and Greece, in both cases led by charismatic young leaders. When Labour get a leader again who looks and sounds a bit more like Blair or Obama they will return to power, as long as they persist in thinking a leader who looks and acts like a tramp will gain the confidence of the public to be PM it is hardly surprising they will continue to lose
Algerian terror suspect linked to Osama Bin Laden wins 21-year legal battle with Home Office to stay in UK
The father has repeatedly defeated attempts to deport him despite being accused of helping to send young British Muslims to terror training camps abroad.
Now a judge has ruled that the threat of deportation has affected his mental health and quashed the Home Office refusal to grant him the right to indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The judge has also overturned government restrictions which had forced him to stay at his home address and report to a police station once a month.
The man who can only be referred to as 'G’ came to the UK to claim asylum in August 1995 using a false French passport. But in 2001 the Government decided to deport him after evidence emerged that he was a suspected terrorist and a risk to national security.
Algerian terror suspect linked to Osama Bin Laden wins 21-year legal battle with Home Office to stay in UK
The father has repeatedly defeated attempts to deport him despite being accused of helping to send young British Muslims to terror training camps abroad.
Now a judge has ruled that the threat of deportation has affected his mental health and quashed the Home Office refusal to grant him the right to indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The judge has also overturned government restrictions which had forced him to stay at his home address and report to a police station once a month.
The man who can only be referred to as 'G’ came to the UK to claim asylum in August 1995 using a false French passport. But in 2001 the Government decided to deport him after evidence emerged that he was a suspected terrorist and a risk to national security.
Seriously, how much is it going to cost us to have the Spooks follow him around?
Like any other civilised countryoutside the EU, a deportation order should be followed by a free trip to the airport, people wishing to appeal should do so from overseas. Anyone unwilling to comply ends up in a voluntary detention centre, where they remain until they decide they want to go to the airport...
Algerian terror suspect linked to Osama Bin Laden wins 21-year legal battle with Home Office to stay in UK
The father has repeatedly defeated attempts to deport him despite being accused of helping to send young British Muslims to terror training camps abroad.
Now a judge has ruled that the threat of deportation has affected his mental health and quashed the Home Office refusal to grant him the right to indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The judge has also overturned government restrictions which had forced him to stay at his home address and report to a police station once a month.
The man who can only be referred to as 'G’ came to the UK to claim asylum in August 1995 using a false French passport. But in 2001 the Government decided to deport him after evidence emerged that he was a suspected terrorist and a risk to national security.
Seriously, how much is it going to cost us to have the Spooks follow him around?
Like any other civilised countryoutside the EU, a deportation order should be followed by a free trip to the airport, people wishing to appeal should do so from overseas. Anyone unwilling to comply ends up in a voluntary detention centre, where they remain until they decide they want to go to the airport...
Person prevented from being deported because they were afraid of being deported. You couldn't make it up.
In today's Telegraph Charles Moore reckons the 11 Supreme Court judges are currently split 7 to 4 in favour of parliamentary legislation to trigger Article 50. Is there any betting on this particular score anywhere?
Algerian terror suspect linked to Osama Bin Laden wins 21-year legal battle with Home Office to stay in UK
The father has repeatedly defeated attempts to deport him despite being accused of helping to send young British Muslims to terror training camps abroad.
Now a judge has ruled that the threat of deportation has affected his mental health and quashed the Home Office refusal to grant him the right to indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The judge has also overturned government restrictions which had forced him to stay at his home address and report to a police station once a month.
The man who can only be referred to as 'G’ came to the UK to claim asylum in August 1995 using a false French passport. But in 2001 the Government decided to deport him after evidence emerged that he was a suspected terrorist and a risk to national security.
Seriously, how much is it going to cost us to have the Spooks follow him around?
Like any other civilised countryoutside the EU, a deportation order should be followed by a free trip to the airport, people wishing to appeal should do so from overseas. Anyone unwilling to comply ends up in a voluntary detention centre, where they remain until they decide they want to go to the airport...
The Germans seem to be able to manage deportations to Aghanistan
Traditional Social Democratic parties are in very serious decline across the west; it has caught them all by suprise. Canada is the one exception to this but they only won after the Tories there won three terms. America as ever has put things into sharp focus, the main anxities of the white working class has shifted from an economic one to a cultural issues and the social democratic parties have no answer to this except to go right. Down thread Nick Palmer said the French and GermanS have accepted terror attacks every now and again because compared to the 1 million new people it's not a huge issue..........hmmmmmmmm, Very naive to say the least.
In my view they would d better to court Middle class white voters instead because the white working class are not going to turnout in huge numbers for them. Not for Corbyn, Not for ,French Socialists, not for the Democrats in mid terms in 2018 or 2020.
Comments
You can educate them in the mores of modern western society. Or you can let them be their current selves.
The problem with the former is that it would require a belief in current western society - that it is better than the alternatives. This would be so close to saying that white people are better that many progressive types would rather die.
The current situation rather reminds me of this -
"The usual sentence was: for a first offence, a warning -- a scolding, often without trial. After several offenses a sentence of confinement but with sentence suspended and the youngster placed on probation. A boy might be arrested many times and convicted several times before he was punished -- and then it would be merely confinement, with others like him from whom he learned still more criminal habits. If he kept out of major trouble while confined, he could usually evade most of even that mild punishment, be given probation -- 'paroled' in the jargon of the times.
This incredible sequence could go on for years while his crimes increased in frequency and viciousness, with no punishment whatever save rare dull-but-comfortable confinements. Then suddenly, usually by law on his eighteenth birthday, this so-called 'juvenile delinquent' becomes an adult criminal -- and sometimes wound up in only weeks or months in a death cell awaiting execution for murder."
accepted practice is a period of silence while the other side cook in their own juices.
we havent had that, weve have petulant foot stamping and wishing the country to fall apart because your side lost the vote.
After the EU referendum, a curious thing happened. The winners were neither happy, nor triumphant. The victory announcement by Boris Johnson was funereal, almost resentful.
Having gone through a polarising referendum and secured an unlikely victory, those on the winning side are still angry, angrier even than they were before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/02/brexit-trump-populists-sore-winners-play-victim
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38490868
I know SeanT posted about this yesterday, but you have to read really carefully to find out that a security guard lost an eye.
If you wish to build houses, you must pass through a slow, expensive process. And then at the end pay very large fees to local government to be allowed to actually build the things.
If you put large taxes on something and restrict access to the main raw material (land to build on), then the result is inevitable.
The problem is a nexus of people who believe that human contaminate the landscape, those who wish to use house building to fund infrastructure development, nimbies and those who are invested in massive returns on property prices.
I'm sure youll have lots of opportunity to laugh and guffaw at leavers and rightly so, but this discussion is about remainers wishing ill on their fellow citizens and why they do it.
oh yes they do
Meanwhile I am happy with my investment in Frexiteer longshot Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who is backed by rosbif Nigel Farage. I don't think he comes across as obnoxious abrasive enough to be a French Trump - his words are tough but his manner is mild - but then Le Pen isn't a French Ann Coulter either. But maybe her niece could give it some of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0E3m47pOE4
so the fact that nothing much has happned is a happening in itself
quite why anyone would take campaign spin at face value eludes me.
maybe you can explain why you give it such prominence in your posts
2017 may be as remarkable as 2016. We could have astonishing French and Dutch elections. Farage may return or create something of his own (Copeland?). So too might Blair (ok, yes I'm reaching), and we may have a splintering of Labour. We might have by-elections with Tory/Lab/New Lab/Split Lab/Lib/UKIP/Split UKIP/ Green as 'serious' parties.
There's also the minor matter of a blithering idiot as the most powerful person in the world too!
As my tip of the year (please don't follow it as I'm awful at tipping things) I'd suggest that Trump is way, way too short to be 2020 President. (2.30/2.32)
The market of the year has to be the French Presidential elections. I suspect fireworks.
Lefties on the outrage bus because police targeted North Africans on News Years eve and abbreviated "Nordafrikanisch" to Nafris
That was an Islamic Supremacist.
State minister says women harassed during New Year’s Eve celebrations because young people dressed and acted like westerners
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/02/mass-molestation-bangalore-blamed-on-indians-copying-west
There was an analogous discussion in Richmond Park about whether Sarah Olney should take the Lib Dem policy line of "no support for Article 50 unless there's a promise of a 2nd referendum" or "no support for Article 50 - period." The former is, in practice the same as the latter but Sarah went with the clear "No Article 50 - period". It cut through and she got her unambiguous mandate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbuKYHwxx5Y
http://imgur.com/a/Ouzpc
That is taken from Fallout 3, a game.
If cornered in an interview the Lib Dems could always embrace some UKIP logic - "Article 50 is the EU's rule and not what the people have voted for. They don't want to take any part in a process we don't control and isn't in our interests."
It's hard to remember now the time when the Tories were bitterly opposed to the introduction of the minimum wage for example.
SpaceX are hoping to launch their next rocket on January 8th. Let's hope this one does not self-combust.
There has also been more information on what cause the rocket to go boom in a rather unscheduled manner:
http://www.spacex.com/news/2016/09/01/anomaly-updates
How does it go? "I didn't leave the party. The party left me."
Consider in modern India, the political response to "Indian Jobs for Indian Workers". What is the Hindu for "duh??"...
But I do agree that social democracy is in crisis nearly everywhere. The shift from moderate left to far left is near-ubiquitous, reflecting the lack of coherent social democratic vision that's seen as viable in our globalised world. As you say, in FPTP countries that means very serious trouble. In proportional countries, it's not such a problemn, as the old Cold War barriers to working with the far left have largely melted away.
Basically if everything is racist, then nothing is racist.
A perfect example from just the other day was the nonsense in an article at the Guardian about decentralising whiteness when listening to music.
What he represents above all is a repudiation of a political bubble which seemed to have lost touch with the common sense of the man on the street and fallen victim to groupthink. A bubble which in its handling of the financial crisis in 2008, showed it had forgotten that the free market means allowing failure. In its naive pursuit of nation-building, it showed that it had forgotten about pursuing its own nation's interests.
Hindu is a religion, Hindi a language!
HTH
The problem is that many on the left believe that the first world can't compete in anything economically *and* that there is nothing of intrinsic value in Western culture.
The ironic bit is that social services (combined with stable property rights, stable legal and political systems etc) are what enables the higher productivity in First world economies. The NHS makes people more productive....
We have a system that is worth defending (and espousing). And we should do so.
Until, eventually, the people react"
I think one thing we underestimate with particularly our French and German cousins is that when you have been through as much as they have (Verdun, WW I / II etc for the French, 1945 for the Germans etc) and when that past still plays a part in your national consciousness, then these terror attacks seem small in comparison. To put it bluntly, the terror attacks in Nice, Berlin and Paris are nothing to the death and destruction both nations have faced before.
That might change but I suspect not soon, which is why I do not think Le Pen will win in 2017 (although I suspect she does not want to win this time and is aiming for 2020, secure in the knowledge that Fillon is unlikely to have improved things and Islamic terrorism is set to continue.
1. If you are a Brexit-leaning WWC Labour voter, you can go to UKIP, especially as Nuttall will pitch for your vote. Or you go to the Tories, for whom there seems to be less and less loathing.
2. If you a metropolitan leftie, Farron and his Lib Dem crew will appeal more and more. Personally, I think Farron is an arrogant, patronising wimp of a man with a face that looks as though he is permanently struggling with severe constipation. However, that "I know better than you and you are just a pleb" mentality will appeal to many of the hardcore metropolitan left (one of the big pluses for the LDs from the Brexit vote is that it has now wiped their past actions over tuition fees from the memory of many of these voters);
That does not really leave much left......
https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/816056733240033284
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/01/02/143213/japanese-white-collar-workers-are-already-being-replaced-by-artificial-intelligence
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/816056967189921792
1) Is not Metropolitan
2) Is the only party leader whose parents could be classed as working class
3) Is Northern
4) Is unfashionably a socially conservative Christian
I think your Metropolitan Elite snobbery is showing...
The father has repeatedly defeated attempts to deport him despite being accused of helping to send young British Muslims to terror training camps abroad.
Now a judge has ruled that the threat of deportation has affected his mental health and quashed the Home Office refusal to grant him the right to indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The judge has also overturned government restrictions which had forced him to stay at his home address and report to a police station once a month.
The man who can only be referred to as 'G’ came to the UK to claim asylum in August 1995 using a false French passport. But in 2001 the Government decided to deport him after evidence emerged that he was a suspected terrorist and a risk to national security.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/02/algerian-terror-suspect-linked-osama-bin-laden-wins-21-year/
Like any other civilised countryoutside the EU, a deportation order should be followed by a free trip to the airport, people wishing to appeal should do so from overseas. Anyone unwilling to comply ends up in a voluntary detention centre, where they remain until they decide they want to go to the airport...
btw there's a new thread.
https://twitter.com/piers_corbyn/status/815818811924430849
www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2016/12/germany-deports-afghan-asylum-seekers-161215103512214.html
And has some interesting approaches to stateless deportations
https://www.thelocal.de/20160129/germany-pays-african-countries-to-take-asylum-rejects
We should copy what our European cousins do.
In my view they would d better to court Middle class white voters instead because the white working class are not going to turnout in huge numbers for them. Not for Corbyn, Not for ,French Socialists, not for the Democrats in mid terms in 2018 or 2020.