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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll
Unlike the last last parliament when there was at least one poll every single day for more than four years surveyd are now few and far between at the moment. The only regular (monthly or more) Westminster voting polls are coming from just four firms – YouGov, ICM, Opinium and Ipsos MORI. At least individual polls are not having a greater impact.
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DavidL said:
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Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.
David, I was not thinking of independence, current Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.
Only two things worry me about the implosion of Labour: that it's too good to be true and won't happen, and that Labour could hang around as a zombie Opposition for a generation after its death. Shambling around the inner cities, too weak to achieve anything of value but too strong for any alternative force (hopefully a regenerated liberal party, with a real connection to life as lived outside the M25) to finally bring down. A Tory Supremacy would be infinitely preferable to a Labour one, but neither prospect is healthy for democracy and good governance.
What a time to be alive!.
Off first footing now. Some traditions need to be retained.
Twenty four!
11:24AM
Roger said:
Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%
What a time to be alive!.
Down 10?
3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.
However he didn't write nearly for the Tory total and 10% of the Tories old total would be 4.2% so I see no way to make down three the same as down 4.2. The Tories are down just over 7% of their total not 10% if you're going to mix percentages in such a bizarre way.
Also, I'm putting a few more quid on Labour vote share 20-25% at next GE. Still 9/4 with Ladbrokes down from 5/2 in December, still looks like value.
England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K
11:34AM
The long-anticipated demise of Ukip continues to not happen. As long as Corbyn's in post, the purples are probably going nowhere.
Freudian slip?
I can't think of a time off-hand but there are others on this site who know the polls better than I do. I know in 1981-2 the SDP touched 50% in a Gallup with the other two tied a long way behind - I think they were both on 24%. But I can't remember seeing anything lower.
If not, and this is Labour's joint worst ever poll (without even the excuse of an insurgent third party) then that is embarrassing and worrying.
Broken sleazy major parties on the slide?
Under Ed M, Labour were 2 % points ahead of the Tories, today Corbyn is a mere 17 % points behind the Tories on 24. This is without much exposure on TV and radio, is a new low possible?
Progressives 36%
There has been so much written on this site about polls, with one side getting excited and the opponents going on the defensive, only to find much later real elections get different results.
Which is exactly why we don't have PM Miliband.
But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel, how they sound like a heresy. It can't happen. can it? It's impossible. In fact, it seems odd that Labour are as high as 24%. This time, surely, the polls have it right?
A man who cannot even hold his own party together; a man who has never heard of a terrorist he didn't empathise with; a man who is singularly unsuited to be Junior Minister for Education (Manhole Studies), yet alone Prime Minister, could surely never reach the top?
Then again, he's a survivor. He survived the wilderness years whilst his party was in power under the hated Blair. He survived the first leadership campaign; he survived all the muck and hassle thrown at him by his own side, yet alone his real opponents. He survived the second leadership campaign.
It has to end sometime, doesn't it? His 'luck' has to run out?
If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.
I JC became PM I would laugh so hard I would literally soil myself.
Also, the 'large' rise in inflation was followed by reports of 'small' wage increases. Which exceeded inflation. But there we are.
Nontheless it is interesting to see that May’s honeymoon is fading. A 3% drop is less likely to be MOE than a 1% one.
Farron may also be that rarest of things, a less appealing politician than Jeremy Corbyn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7elNhHwgBU
However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.
Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.
https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/815859189868335104
Looks good for Bottas to Mercedes.
Naught but Tory Scum propagandaSome good points!https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
No, Tories had a 7% lead at GE2015.
In this poll they have a 15% lead!
Or maybe not.
*Wonders out loud about Hamilton's price for SPOTY next year*
Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '
So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.
I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.
But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.
Letchworth Garden City
Welwyn Garden City
To demonstrate it more clearly what 0.9% inflation means is that inflation has a price multiplier of 100.9% - changing the multiplier from 100.9% to 101.2% shows just how ridiculous the claim was. You can't forget the 100% because it's inconvenient to your spin or else you're slashing prices dramatically not increasing them.
Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..
Mr. Richard, I'd say 3,000 counts as a village.
Mind you, I was in China, and a 'village' had 200,000 residents, so it's all relative.
However, I believe the technical definition of a village is a clearly defined rural settlement without a separate council from the surrounding area. So size is irrelevant even though it's what most people use to judge such places.
This was a few weeks ago: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38300919
Did a spot of demographic research for fantasy-writing, and a city might only have a few thousand residents, which sounds very small now.
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons
Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
That's quite a sobering thought.
Typos.
The Greek God of spelling errors.
Will there be a wave of patriotic fervour, or a reaction to the confusion and chaos? Or both. Certainly it will be a different context.
In a by-election while in government not so sure.
Yet more #Fakenews.
Or is this more 'fake news'?!
Otherwise we'll end up with the infrastructure for a 'garden village' not that needed for a new town.
As ydoethur says it depends upon the level of services within the settlement.
A new place of 3,000 people with a pub, shop and bus stop would be better described as a housing development than a village.
between 1950 and 2100 europeans will have gone from being 22% of the world's population to 6%
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/menschen/dsw-bildet-die-weltbevoelkerung-und-entwicklung-in-dorf-ab-14600551.html
She went for a Monty Python style "15 minute argument" and accidentally walked into the stonewalling room.
is this the big retirement one ? :-)
'However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable. '
On the other hand, Opinium has Labour at 31% based on fieldwork just a few days earlier.Mori puts them on 29% and the last ICM gave them 27%. This poll looks a bit odd!
Is your wife still there, expect there to be plenty churn again this year as they "Transform".
PS: Hope your business is going well, shoudl be good opportunities for you in near future.
' so I showed her a pie chart with voting numbers showing that only 37% of the electorate voted for Brexit, which was not the majority of British people '
So she reduces the Leave vote by multiplying by turnout and then:
' Maidenhead had voted overwhelmingly for Remain '
Windsor and Maidenhead council voted 53.9% Remain on a 79.7% turnout ie only a 43% vote for Remain.
Hoping 2017 picks up, last quarter was tough trading so could do with a brisk start to the year.
Con Lab UKIP LD
39% 24% 14% 12% - Yougov
38% 31% 13% 6% - Opinium
40% 29% 9% 14% - MORI
41% 27% 14% 9% - ICM
42% 25% 12% 11% - Yougov
So really what this shows is that Labour does best when the methodology of a pollster likely underestimates 3rd and 4th parties. UKIP always do poorly in MORI compared to other pollsters, Libs are unrealistically low in Opinium.
The general trend however is clearly low by historic standards and struggling to match even their abysmal performance in 2010.
2016 was the first year since 1968 when no British soldiers died in operation
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/uk/2016-second-year-since-world-war-no-uk-military-deaths/
Ars calling bullshit on the Russian hacking claims and deconstructing the report quite adeptly.
It's all fake news though I guess.
'Only 180 degrees out there, they will be waiting a long time methinks. Labour a busted flush and Tories with NO chance of ever being in government. '
The SNP will eventually become unpopular as all parties in Government do. There are increasing signs that peak SNP was reached in 2015 as reflected in both Holyrood and council by elections. I suspect they will struggle to poll 45% at the next Westminster elections - 42/43% is probably more likely.
James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.
Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?
Indeed, there were two sets of elections in 2015 in France and the Front National underperformed its polling in both cases. It also did very poorly in transfer votes in both. Even immediately after the Bataclan attack, in the most pro-FN region in France, and with Marine Le Pen herself standing against a colourless LR candidate, the FN still trailed by 10%.