politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the Ho

Morris_Dancer said:

Italy plans bank bailout: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38391967

The Italians have very sensibly decided to stick two fingers up at the Germans and to bail out their banks.

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

I'm perfectly calm. Just not in the mood to be lectured to by someone who has supported the policies of Merkel, policies that have let in thousands of potential terrorists. Your blind love of her is just sad. Your support of Erdogan is sickening, I thought that after he made nice with Putin you would have an about turn but clearly I was wrong, your uncritical eye when it comes to Turkey and Erdogan is just ridiculous.

Max, find *one* post where I have supported Merkel's policy (in fact, in common with others I've referred to it as 'madness').

Go on. Because as far as I'm aware I haven't supported it once. As I say above, I complimented Cameron's stance at the same time as criticising Merkels.

My 'support' for Erdogan is nothing of the sort: as you'd know if you actually read my posts with an open mind. Mentioning the problems that confront Turkey is not the same as supporting Erdogan.

In a similar manner, you might also like to look up my comments on Gulen.

Basically: you are out of order.

I'll take back the Merkel remarks, but on Erdogan you have a huge blindspot in that he created the conditions for the millions of refugees. He aided and abetted ISIS in its early days when they were referred to as "Sunni militia" groups, he has backed Al-Nusra and other jihadists fighting against the Kurds and until he was forced to reverse by economic ruin he destroyed the detente the West had with Russia in Syria by shooting down a Russian plane which strayed into Turkish airspace for 16 seconds.

The man is a maniac and yet all we get from you is "yeah but the circumstances are tough, so we should not judge him". They are circumstances he created and had prospered from looking at the rerun in which the HDP were smashed after a few convenient bombs went off and the PKK were blamed (despite not claiming them, even though they always do when it is them).

Erdogan is a despot and you are a fool to dance to his tune of sympathy for Turkey when we should have no tolerance of his actions.

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Italy plans bank bailout: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38391967

The Italians have very sensibly decided to stick two fingers up at the Germans and to bail out their banks.

Brexit is going to be the least of the EU's problems in the new year. The question now is what punishment can the ECB conceivably give Italy for bailing out their banks? Surely they can't just let it go, and can't/won't kick them out of the Euro as that would bring the single currency to its knees.

Interesting times ahead. Buy gold!

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Italy plans bank bailout: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38391967

That completely and utterly trashes the bail-in rules of the EU. The EU will have to act to block it and enforce the rules.

I believe they are bailing in those who have more than €100,000 of the subordinated debt, but not those who have less.

They will claim that it complies with bail in rules, as they are bailing billions of Euros of subordinated debt holders. I suspect it will end up in front of the ECJ in about 2025.

That definitely doesn't comply. Only depositors have the €100k protection, the rules make no mention of any protection for subordinated bond holders.

There also doesn't seem to be any bail-in of uninsured deposits which are technically in line ahead of subordinated debt for bailing in. This is a massive fuck you to the EU Bank bail in rules.

PlatoSaid said:

RationalPlan said:

Hmm, before we get too smug about the british police, remember the jean charles de menezes case and the poorly attempted cover up.

I worked with the team in counter-terrorism back then. It was a tragic mistake of identity - but the officers who shot him thought they were risking their own lives by jumping on him/shooting to stop a suicide bomber who'd blow them to smithereens in seconds. They were incredibly brave.

Senior officers had no confidence in Sir Ian Blair - at all.

There've been dozens of attacks stopped by the intelligence and police services since then. Perhaps less carping about a tragic mistake a decade ago is in order.

Well, you can't blame them for having no confidence in Ian Blair or for that matter Cressida Dick, who were both blatantly political appointments.

However, in the case of Senor de Menezes, what bothered people more was the fact that the police tried to cover it up with a series of really quite breathtakingly stupid lies. If they had held their hands up and admitted they got it wrong making a tough decision at a difficult moment, I think most people would have supported them. But first lying to the public, then the Home Office, then the press and finally the coroner in the face of unequivocal eyewitness testimony was the most stupid decision since Nixon authorised the Watergate break in.

If it helps for balance, as someone of middling height I've always found tall women pretty unattractive.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, check your privilege.

Elf lives matter.

That reminds me of a bizarre experience I had in Jamaica back in the early 2000s. I was drinking in a hotel bar and another guest asked me for a date.

I declined - he instantly accused me of 'being shortist'. He was short - and frankly I feel awkward being 4" taller than a partner. He was so hair-trigger about it and I'd never mentioned his height. He went on and on and on! In public

He'd have done a lot better approaching women who weren't taller than he was - or gotten therapy for his short man issues.

You should have said loud enough for everyone to hear "No, it's because your f**king ugly!" or something.

Perhaps... "No need to be short with me"

Or...

"Look mate... I would tell you that real reason, I'm just worried it would go over your head."

Pulpstar said:

I *think* the Italian news is good for UK banks, so it is fine by me

Doesn't make much difference for us tbh, most banks haven't held much periphery debt since 2012.

@MaxPB Yeah but you know how irrational markets can be

@ rkrkrk Thanks for the header.

Lab majority of 2,500 in Copeland over the Tories.

Ms. Apocalypse, good afternoon.

Nothing wrong with being 5'. My mum's that height.

It's quite nice, actually. Makes me feel tall

Blimey - @AlastairMeeks a faster cut and paster.

This is a real fight if it is a proper resignation rather than at the end of Parliament.

I beat you all to the Jamie Reed story.

Deselection by voluntary resignation. Stalin would be proud.

Sandpit said:

Ooh, are we getting a by-election in a lab-held marginal?

Has it been clear whether it's a "at the election" or right now?

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

Ooh, are we getting a by-election in a lab-held marginal?

Has it been clear whether it's a "at the election" or right now?

right now..

MaxPB said:

This is a real fight if it is a proper resignation rather than at the end of Parliament.

Sounds like he's got a job in the nuclear industry so yes, expect a by-election in late Jan or Feb.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/811562913626542081

https://twitter.com/jreedmp/status/811563376757407744

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

Ooh, are we getting a by-election in a lab-held marginal?

Has it been clear whether it's a "at the election" or right now?

Sounds like he's off now. When was the last time the government took a by-election seat from the opposition?

1982 Mitchin and Morden.

Con gain from Labour who were lead by a very left wing leader.

@TheScreamingEagles an even faster cut and paster.

One thing is true, all parties have to throw the kitchen sink at this one.

https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/811564164355342338

It's bad news for the Labour right that Jamie Reed should slip away so quietly. Are they going to give up one by one?

If the Tories really are 16 points ahead in the opinion polls they should take Copeland very easily.

Right, lets start some rumours of Lab candidates to be parachuted in:

Ed Balls
Paul Mason

MaxPB said:

I'll take back the Merkel remarks, but on Erdogan you have a huge blindspot in that he created the conditions for the millions of refugees. He aided and abetted ISIS in its early days when they were referred to as "Sunni militia" groups, he has backed Al-Nusra and other jihadists fighting against the Kurds and until he was forced to reverse by economic ruin he destroyed the detente the West had with Russia in Syria by shooting down a Russian plane which strayed into Turkish airspace for 16 seconds.

The man is a maniac and yet all we get from you is "yeah but the circumstances are tough, so we should not judge him". They are circumstances he created and had prospered from looking at the rerun in which the HDP were smashed after a few convenient bombs went off and the PKK were blamed (despite not claiming them, even though they always do when it is them).

Erdogan is a despot and you are a fool to dance to his tune of sympathy for Turkey when we should have no tolerance of his actions.

Okay, you've withdrawn the first part of your slur / rant.

Now for you to withdraw the rest, including the above accusations against me.

Let's get onto what is apparently your real issue; Erdogan. Again, if you read my posts in the past, you'll see where I've:

*) Criticised his takeover of the media, the judiciary, the police and others; and his treatment of political parties as being counter to democracy.

*) Mentioned (repeatedly) the story of the relationship between him and Gulen, and the hilarious way it broke down. In fact, I was the only person mentioning Gulen on here for ages as I pointed out he was someone to watch.

*) Repeatedly expressed support for the Kurds (though not the terrorists in the PKK), and lamented the breakdown of the Solution peace process.

*) Backed a Kurdish homeland as the only long-term solution for Turkey's eastern provinces (something Assad supporters do not do over Syria). This is not a popular position within Turkey, to say the least.

*) Mentioned the way he is following Putin's playbook in securing power.

And much more. And as I've also said in the past, members of my extended family live in Turkey, and are not exactly in the regime's good books.

And I have never said: "yeah but the circumstances are tough, so we should not judge him"

But I do mention the situation Turkey finds itself in. For instance, the social and economic chaos that 2.5 million refugees from a war waging on the country's southern border is causing.

I also challenge some of the 'facts' you give above, but it's evidently pointless arguing them with you as you seem very ill-informed and one-eyed on the topic.

I will say this however: anyone hating Erdogan for what he is doing, and supporting Assad for his far worse crimes, is more than a fool; they need their heads testing.

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Official confirmation that Leavers are naughty and Remainers are nice:

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/811491620688461824

So people think Father Christmas is left wing.

Would they want Father Christmas as PM though?

Father Christmas relies on freedom of movement and the customs union to bring presents from Lapland.

It appears he does.

He also uses zero hours contracts for his staff as the work is definetly seasonal while spending most of his time delivering drunk in charge of a slay (allegedly) and let's not get into the number of civil aviation and Federal avaiation flight violations that occur on an annual basis placing other legitimate air travellers at risk. (Providing carriers are not on strike, work to rule etc)

Health and safety is also an issue with going down chimneys in fire areas without suitable protection, working at height without fall protection and entering enclosed spaces without proper risk assessment.

At least he doesn't tell us what flag we have to have on our number plates though.

Bah humbug

Miss Plato, from memory, Maximinus Thrax was tall. And a total thug. I think Basil II was pretty short, but he was also hard as nails (but fairer, provided you weren't a Bulgar prisoner, than Thrax and a good deal more popular).

@TheWhiterabbit Up or down ?

In normal circumstances, this would be a dead easy hold for the opposition, increasing their majority. In this seat at this time, maybe not. UKIP, Corbyn and the nuclear industry factor could all eat away at Labour's vote share, possibly allowing the Tories to come through the middle. It will certainly be an interesting one.

@ Dr Foxinsoxuk "When Obamacare goes in America diabetics will be uninsurable. Complications are horrendous there, particularly tbe chronic vascular ones."

As anyone on here who has followed the issue knows, I have hated Obamacare from day 1 because it fudges all but two issues - actually all but one. The nearly-not-fudged issue is universality. The not fudged issue is pre-existing conditions. But mandating coverage of these conditions is what is bankrupting it.

My own view is that these are in fact the best things about Obamacare, and that it will be very hard for the GOP to repeal and replace without protecting these two very popular elements. It will be expensive without Zeke Emanuel's Death Panels, so expect to see some GOPers suddenly, if quietly, see the light and convert.

Could Labour field a candidate who has been winning popular votes for weeks on end for this seat, a Mr Edward Balls might be available.

@SunriseIsabel: BREAKING: The Queen's travel plans to Sandringham have been cancelled. Her Majesty is thought to be unwell. Not confirmed by B'ham Palace

Labour's share of the vote in Copeland:

1997: 58.2%
2001: 51.8%
2005: 50.5%
2010: 46.0%
2015: 42.3%
2017: ???

How exciting! Copeland is about as far as it is possible to be - geographically and temperamentally - from Islington North. Interesting to see how Labour play this.
May be a small majority, but the Labour vote in these parts is extremely sticky, and swings tend to be low.
Coverage likely to be less exccitable than Richmond. I'd be surprised if any political correspondents even know anyone who lives in Whitehaven.

dr_spyn said:

Could Labour field a candidate who has been winning popular votes for weeks on end for this seat, a Mr Edward Balls might be available.

My guess would be that any potential Labour candidate will be very nervous about applying. Their best bet would be to go with someone completely embedded into the local community.

david_herdson said:

Slackbladder said:

One thing is true, all parties have to throw the kitchen sink at this one.

I doubt the Lib Dems will.

Although it does border the safest Lib Dem seat in England interestingly enough ! This won't get soft peddled, Farron will want to do as well as possible here.

Mr Meeks, you have Santa all wrong. He is a conservative. We know for sure because Fox News has told us:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/12/19/is-santa-claus-dare-say-it-conservative.html

It is actually a funny piece.

1997: 58.2%
2001: 51.8%
2005: 50.5%
2010: 46.0%
2015: 42.3%
2017: ???

chuckles.

That's almost a consistent 4 % loss over 2 decades.

This is not going to end well for Labour.

SandyRentool said:

Will the Nutty Boy stand for the Kippers? Cumbria is in his euro-region.

Suggest Labour find a union official from Sellafield who voted Leave. Not a Momentumite from Islington.

Nuttall is waiting for Leigh isn't he? I'd have thought he'd be less interested in a seat where Con and Lab will be going full-throttle rather than somewhere where he'd have a clearer run at Lab.

Pulpstar said:

Although it does border the safest Lib Dem seat in England interestingly enough ! This won't get soft peddled, Farron will want to do as well as possible here.

I rather doubt that, given their starting position.

Still, any party which takes votes off Labour shouldn't be discouraged!

Is this how it ends for Jezza? A very bad defeat could be what does for him - or will it be explained away as being due to the lack of support for the dear leader?

PlatoSaid said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She's very easy to annoy. Vlad and Donald will have a field day with her

https://twitter.com/montie/status/811497324040044545

Though where Deloitte is concerned one might also point out that it would generally be a condition of employment that one would not undermine or bring into disrepute ones employer. Something Deloitte were clearly guilty of in this case.

In my professional life, I've used Deloitte for several very expensive/detailed studies that required total confidentiality and discretion. If they did this to me, I'd never consider them again. Ever.

They broke the trust bond and there's enough choice in the market to simply ignore them in future. The whining in The Times has got little support - all the top comments have the same view as me - they did this to themselves and have got off pretty lightly with just a 6 month self-imposed tendering ban. If I still had Whitehall money to spend, Deloitte would be at the bottom of the list from now on.

Initially I thought Deloitte's only had one daft consultant who strayed over their remit and commented on the PMs style in writing..... That memo was then leaked.
But the major act of stupidity were these comments and interviews given by David Sproul, chief executive of Deloitte UK "he would move work abroad if the Government’s stance on foreign workers was too hard line". Just crazy and I hope all the UK partners will look at the £ millions he is costing them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-deloitte-says-will-move-work-out-of-uk-theresa-may-immigration-restrictions-article-50-a7422461.html

Not bidding for 6 months will have a very long tail of being excluded from follow on work etc etc running into years.