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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the Ho

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  • AndyJS said:

    Jack Cunningham was MP from 1970 to 2005. He was on the right of the party IIRC.

    The Tories won a by-election in neighbouring Workington in 1976 but lost it back to Labour at the 1979 general election.

    Many Happy Returns, Andy!
  • PlatoSaid said:

    "Labour Steve Gibbons 12,867"

    See, to be elected mayor, it isn't enough to be named after a monkey, you have to dress up as a monkey too. Good effort though.

    <pedant mode> A gibbon isn't a monkey. </pedant mode>
    They're funkies, not monkeys.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXq8rELhUkw
    Amused at how "5 hits" could be misread.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @PlatoSaid

    Alas the Gibbon theme was another thing the Goodies nicked from ISIRTA*. Though to be fair it was probably Bill Oddie's idea originally (he was responsible for most of the boring bits in ISIRTA shows, including the songs).

    *ISIRTA = I am Sorry I 'll Read that Again - a 1960's radio comedy show, which was really rather good, on the whole.
  • Mr. Doethur, quite. Poor child.

    Mr. Pubgoer, happy birthday. Hope you don't get birthday and Christmas presents rolled into one.

    Thanks MD.
    Joint presents has been pretty much the case

    Happy Birthday, Hertsmere!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    kle4 said:

    There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond.

    Area felt let down by previous MP.
    LDs split the progressive vote selfishly.
    Non-Corbynites undermined the campaign.
    The media focused onthe wrong things.
    Tory lies.
    Tory overspending.
    Winter by-election, poorer people don't have the nice coats to get to the polling station.
    Seat is uniquely different, so no lessons to be learned.
    Got more than the national vote share in polls, shows message is cutting through.
    Message was right but not well delivered.
    Tory lies.


    A resounding demand from Leave voters that their wishes be respected and carried out to the full.
  • Mr. Doethur, quite. Poor child.

    Mr. Pubgoer, happy birthday. Hope you don't get birthday and Christmas presents rolled into one.

    Thanks MD.
    Joint presents has been pretty much the case

    Happy Birthday, Hertsmere!
    Thank you kind Sir

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Just ran a spreadsheet for Copeland. If all other vote shares remain the same regardless of turnout, Labour have to hold on to all their Remain voters from 2015 and at least 75% of their Leave voters (with none of the 25% going directly to the Tories) in order to hold onto this seat.

    That, given Corbyn's views on nuclear power, seems like a very long shot to me.
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