Is this how it ends for Jezza? A very bad defeat could be what does for him - or will it be explained away as being due to the lack of support for the dear leader?
It's utterly a must win for Corbyn. I wonder how motivated MPs will be to campaign for him *wink wink*
How exciting! Copeland is about as far as it is possible to be - geographically and temperamentally - from Islington North. Interesting to see how Labour play this. May be a small majority, but the Labour vote in these parts is extremely sticky, and swings tend to be low. Coverage likely to be less exccitable than Richmond. I'd be surprised if any political correspondents even know anyone who lives in Whitehaven.
Not to mention the language barrier (this Islingtonian, however, does know people in the constituency - my dad was born there).
Fire up the barcharts! Looks like a Labour/UKIP fight.
Agreed. This by-election is absolutely tailor made for UKIP: Leave leaning; not mega Tory historically, and Tories in government and struggling with Brexit; Labour led by alienating metropolitan southern Marxist.
Everything we've heard about UKIP replacing Labour in the north lives or dies on this result. UKIP's future is stark: win here or disband.
Although it does border the safest Lib Dem seat in England interestingly enough ! This won't get soft peddled, Farron will want to do as well as possible here.
I rather doubt that, given their starting position.
Still, any party which takes votes off Labour shouldn't be discouraged!
Why wouldn't Farron want to do as well here as possible given it is his neighbouring constituency ?
This has look and feel of the Darlington byelection in 1983. Michael Foot's leadership was on the line. Ossie O'Brien held for Labour then lost the seat three months later in the general election.
Never mind the size of Reed's majority - how tall is he?
Kawczynski worked in the business entertainment industry before he became an international account manager in the telecommunications industry, a position he held for ten years.[5] At 6 feet 8 1⁄2 inches (204.5 cm), he claimed in 2005 to be the tallest MP in history and "officially a giant".[6]
Mr. Pubgoer, happy birthday. Hope you don't get birthday and Christmas presents rolled into one.
Thanks MD. Joint presents has been pretty much the case
From a family where three siblings and two other family members have holidays within a week of christmas, our tradition is one present on your birthday, then load up on xmas instead.
Miss Plato, one of the seminars at university (psychology degree, 99% female course) was about what people found attractive unattractive [men - if you ever find yourself in a comparable situation the correct answer is saying you find women who are too skinny unattractive].
A tall, and quite lovely, girl said she didn't like dating shorter men (she must've been 6' or 6'2", so that's quite a lot of chaps) to which there was much nodding of agreement.
I'm 5 7 and feel uncomfortable with men under 5 11. If I'm taller in heels - I feel like their mum/protector. It's a very strong and weird instinct I've tried to overcome and can't. Same with men who look noticeably younger. I'm happiest with same age/ 6 1 - 6 4.
It's a real bugger, as I am sure many 5 7 men, such as myself, quite like many tall women, and we don't, drumroll, get a look in.
This has look and feel of the Darlington byelection in 1983. Michael Foot's leadership was on the line. Ossie O'Brien held for Labour then lost the seat three months later in the general election.
If the tories win it it might give them confidence for a GE.
Why wouldn't Farron want to do as well here as possible given it is his neighbouring constituency ?
All parties want to do as well as possible, but they have to be realistic about resources and where it's best to put the effort in. I'd expect them to run a solid but fairly low-key campaign.
@ydoethur Three and Sky (& BT Wholesale I guess) run my "Phone system(s). It works OK.
When are you scheduled to get gigabit fibre optic? Sky are building a trial network in Yorkshire right now with a view to going national at some point, BT aren't even close.
Whereabouts in Yorkshire ?
I'm just outside... my office is in Sheffield though, and that has a unique problem of slow speed.
I think Sheffield is actually on their list of places to expand into. It's a good medium sized city. London will never get it though, we'll have to wait 20 years for BT to catch up.
Why won't London get it? They are always digging up roads.
The cost would be astranomical for a new entrant. Especially since BT will never share the existing infrastructure. At a guess they'd be looking at ~£5-7bn to fibre up the whole of London and then I think the government will force them to let BT use it afterwards which I think would be extremely unfair.
Might not the relative closeness of the top two in Copeland help Labour's vote hold up? In by-elections in safe seats they've done better than expected, IIRC, and tribal vote is still good?
I think the LDs should throw all they can at this one. It'll be a big test of their ability to pick up disillusioned voters from both Con and Lab. A strong UKIP campaign could also help them considerably. Huge (virtually impossible) ask to win from 3.5%, but they should be able to get into the 20s.
I think the LDs should throw all they can at this one. It'll be a big test of their ability to pick up disillusioned voters from both Con and Lab. A strong UKIP campaign could also help them considerably. Huge (virtually impossible) ask to win from 3.5%, but they should be able to get into the 20s.
Not a chance.
What are these disillusioned Tory voters you speak of? TSE may post often but he is but one chap (albeit, apparently, with many pairs of shoes)
Does anyone have a breakdown at the referendum for that constituency? How heavily did it lean to leave?
Faisal Islam has cited a figure of 62% Leave on twitter.
Chris Hanretty has apparently given 59.8% Leave.
Thanks.
Edit: this isn't going to happen, but if Labour, UKIP and the Conservatives all fight on leavers' ground, there is a teensy possibility that the Lib Dems might hoover up enough remain votes to win.
Then again, the Lib Dems seem to have consistently been at 11% or below in this constituency. It's not fertile ground for them.
Copeland - Depending on choice of candidate I would expect a reasonably comfortable Labour hold . UKIP local organisation is virtually non existent just 1 candidate in the whole council 2015 elections . Lib Dem organisation almost as bad though they have some support in the 4 Allerdale wards in the parliamentary constituency . Should if the national opinion polls were correct be a Conservative win but I expect them to be shown up to be false yet again.
I think the Tories best hope in Copeland is if it's a three way battle, it feels like the type of area where a strong UKIP showing would harm Labour more. I could see something like Tories 38% Lab 35% UKIP 22%
Test of the informal 'progressive alliance'. Labour stood in Richmond but by many accounts people didn't put their hearts into it, same thing here from the LDs?
Copeland and its predecessor, Whitehaven, has only been won once by the Conservatives since 1906. This was in 1931. Therefore a Conservative win would take Labour back to 1931. At the 1931 GE Labour lost 225 seats and dropped to 52. The 52 is generous as it includes 6 breakaway ILP MPs.
Morris Dancer, I think my function is to make everyone around me feel tall! Even some of my shorter friends are taller than me - 5'2, 5'3 etc. My mum is also short as well - she's 5'0 too. My dad is 5'9.
My petite female friends have a special appeal - they get the guys who want to protect and are usually really nice chaps. Height seems to have a noticeable impact on personality.
A good friend is 6 7 and horribly self conscious/stooping/shuffling - everything about his posture says I Hate Being This Tall And Slim.
Re your first point: yes, I've experienced that in my own personal life! I used to hate being short, but now I've come to terms with it.
I think your friend should embrace his height. When he goes shopping it surely must be an advantage!
@BethRigby: Labour MP: "Reed begins 'chicken run' where good MPs who know they'll lose in GE where Corbyn is leader take up other work in advance"
That sounds, err, ominous. Or bloody hilarious, depending on your point of view!
Reed was a pretty blunt and outspoken example of an anti-corbynite, IIRC, so I wouldn't be surprised if not as many are as bold as just call it quits like him.
I think the LDs should throw all they can at this one. It'll be a big test of their ability to pick up disillusioned voters from both Con and Lab. A strong UKIP campaign could also help them considerably. Huge (virtually impossible) ask to win from 3.5%, but they should be able to get into the 20s.
The question is will Labour select a Remainer? If they do, then the LDs will then be under pressure to withdraw but they only had 3.5% of the vote at GE2015. Likewise the Conservatives have to choose a LEAVEr. If they do, will UKIP stand aside to have a straight REMAIN vs LEAVE fight?
Test of the informal 'progressive alliance'. Labour stood in Richmond but by many accounts people didn't put their hearts into it, same thing here from the LDs?
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond. It would also be yet more writing on the wall for Corbyn.
Right Ms May, time to throw the kitchen sink at this one!!!
I've never understood why people are so cavalier about their kitchen sinks - cannot another piece of kitchen furnishing indicate our commitment to giving our all just as well?
@Sandpit Clearly life is better under Putin, Assad and Hezbollah than Obama, Al-Nusra and ISIS
Great to see Christmas celebrated everywhere in the world, especially where there has been conflict during the year.
Also great to point out to the atheist jobsworths in Britain that it's Christmas in most of the Muslim world too - or maybe that 50' tree I walked past last night - with a full size nativity scene at the base - was for something else? https://twitter.com/MallofEmirates/status/809361896734359552
Jamie Reed has done the moderate cause in Labour a power of good. This is an excellent day. There can be no spinning a Labour defeat. It will be calamitous for the leadership. The only chance of victory is to field a pro-nuclear, local candidate - ie, an anti-Corbynista.
Right Ms May, time to throw the kitchen sink at this one!!!
I've never understood why people are so cavalier about their kitchen sinks - cannot another piece of kitchen furnishing indicate our commitment to giving our all just as well?
Well, Zac Goldsmith threw the septic tank at London...
Test of the informal 'progressive alliance'. Labour stood in Richmond but by many accounts people didn't put their hearts into it, same thing here from the LDs?
More similarity to UKIP in Copeland if the Conservatives put up a LEAVEr. Kipper activists, are few in number and would not put much effort in. When they do have a REMAIN target kippers effort is higher than the other parties IMHO.
Looks like a real challenge for Lab. In some of the other by-elections they have faced like Tooting and Oldham, there has been a significant ethnic minority population, which has helped them hold the line. The borough of Copeland is 99.3% white.
It's not even a case of losing voters to UKIP or LD. They could lose on differential turnout if the Tories are better at motivating their rural voters to turnout for a by-election in winter.
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond.
Area felt let down by previous MP. LDs split the progressive vote selfishly. Non-Corbynites undermined the campaign. The media focused onthe wrong things. Tory lies. Tory overspending. Winter by-election, poorer people don't have the nice coats to get to the polling station. Seat is uniquely different, so no lessons to be learned. Got more than the national vote share in polls, shows message is cutting through. Message was right but not well delivered. Tory lies.
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond. It would also be yet more writing on the wall for Corbyn.
That wall already has more text than the complete works of Shakespeare and Bible combined!
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond. It would also be yet more writing on the wall for Corbyn.
That wall already has more text than the complete works of Shakespeare and Bible combined!
A true testament to the fantastic construction, by the workers, of the wall itself. Jeremy stands for those builders.
I would personally suggest they go with someone different.
Probably previous parliamentary candidate Chris Whiteside .
I agree - he is active there already. But he described himself as a "floater" at the referendum. On reflection his local connections should get him the candidacy, but UKIP will then fight it as well. The question is who will Labour select?
The key to Copeland result may be the Independent Copeland mayor Mike Starkie . Will he stand as an Independent or be drafted in by a major party and/or will he endorse one of the main parties candidate .
IIRC Copeland had the highest percentage of people ticking the "Christian" box at the 2011 census. Doesn't mean they're practising Christians of course, but its an indicator of the sort of constituency it is in cultural terms.
The key to Copeland result may be the Independent Copeland mayor Mike Starkie . Will he stand as an Independent or be drafted in by a major party and/or will he endorse one of the main parties candidate .
Jamie Reed has done the moderate cause in Labour a power of good. This is an excellent day. There can be no spinning a Labour defeat. It will be calamitous for the leadership. The only chance of victory is to field a pro-nuclear, local candidate - ie, an anti-Corbynista.
Tend to agree. About the only useful thing Labour MPs from the sane part of the party can do now is quit. Hard to believe a government struggling with Brexit could win a seat but this has to be a real possibility here.
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond.
Area felt let down by previous MP. LDs split the progressive vote selfishly. Non-Corbynites undermined the campaign. The media focused onthe wrong things. Tory lies. Tory overspending. Winter by-election, poorer people don't have the nice coats to get to the polling station. Seat is uniquely different, so no lessons to be learned. Got more than the national vote share in polls, shows message is cutting through. Message was right but not well delivered. Tory lies.
LOL at that line about nice coats. Worse thing is, I wouldn't actually be surprised to see them use that excuse either. Given that this is a safe Labour seat, thought I don't think the 'unique seat' line will play well.
@ThomasNashe Indeed, but Moamentum are destroying themselves and the hard left are running out of excuses.
Jamie Reed has done the moderate cause in Labour a power of good. This is an excellent day. There can be no spinning a Labour defeat. It will be calamitous for the leadership. The only chance of victory is to field a pro-nuclear, local candidate - ie, an anti-Corbynista.
The leadership would be happy with that, surely? Any victory will be a victory for them, even if the winner is not about to join the inner circle of comrades, and with the MPs cowed in any case even a virulently anti-Corbyn new MP would keep their heads down in the short term.
How exciting. Theresa May should really throw the kitchen sink at this (she needs to make up for the loss of Goldsmith) but I'm not sure I'd back the Tories at less than evens.
There is a strong cultural aversion to the Conservatives in this area, and the party hasn't won the seat for a very long time.
Jamie Reed has done the moderate cause in Labour a power of good. This is an excellent day. There can be no spinning a Labour defeat. It will be calamitous for the leadership. The only chance of victory is to field a pro-nuclear, local candidate - ie, an anti-Corbynista.
The leadership would be happy with that, surely? Any victory will be a victory for them, even if the winner is not about to join the inner circle of comrades, and with the MPs cowed in any case even a virulently anti-Corbyn new MP would keep their heads down in the short term.
If I were a moderate Labour MP I'd want to be knocking up for the Tories.
The Conservatives have a core vote in the countryside and small towns and villages, but I can't see them changing many minds in Cleator Moor and the like. Their best hope is that Labour voters just don't turn out, or that there are Lab-UKIP switchers which let the Tories through the middle.
"The Conservatives have a core vote in the countryside and small towns and villages, but I can't see them changing many minds in Cleator Moor and the like. Their best hope is that Labour voters just don't turn out, or that there are Lab-UKIP switchers which let the Tories through the middle."
Comments
Everything we've heard about UKIP replacing Labour in the north lives or dies on this result. UKIP's future is stark: win here or disband.
Tory vote should hold up whilst Labour vote collapses (some to LD, some to UKIP, and some straight Tory switchers).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Does anyone have a breakdown at the referendum for that constituency? How heavily did it lean to leave?
I am still playing the Amy Gardner long-game....
Epic Montage Video Illustrates How Badly the Media Failed in 2016 - https://t.co/zLWkLHqkd9
Labour 32%
UKIP 29%
Conservative 17%
Lib Dem 17%
Others 5%
The Colonels and Golf club members have come home...
By election alert
Breaking News image
Labour MP Jamie Reed is quitting Parliament to take a job in the nuclear industry.
So another one gives up
Mike
Chris Hanretty has apparently given 59.8% Leave.
What are these disillusioned Tory voters you speak of? TSE may post often but he is but one chap (albeit, apparently, with many pairs of shoes)
Tories should find a local businessman or councillor leaver to stand. Their 2015 GE candidate was a Stephen Haraldsen, do we know anything about him?
Edit: this isn't going to happen, but if Labour, UKIP and the Conservatives all fight on leavers' ground, there is a teensy possibility that the Lib Dems might hoover up enough remain votes to win.
Then again, the Lib Dems seem to have consistently been at 11% or below in this constituency. It's not fertile ground for them.
UKIP local organisation is virtually non existent just 1 candidate in the whole council 2015 elections . Lib Dem organisation almost as bad though they have some support in the 4 Allerdale wards in the parliamentary constituency . Should if the national opinion polls were correct be a Conservative win but I expect them to be shown up to be false yet again.
I would personally suggest they go with someone different.
I think your friend should embrace his height. When he goes shopping it surely must be an advantage!
@Morris_Dancer Thanks!
A message to the employees of Sellafield from Rt Hon Jeremy Corbyn MP: https://t.co/oXzfy8MNGC
Hi Copeland residents (waves)!
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/261528365910085632
It's not even a case of losing voters to UKIP or LD. They could lose on differential turnout if the Tories are better at motivating their rural voters to turnout for a by-election in winter.
LDs split the progressive vote selfishly.
Non-Corbynites undermined the campaign.
The media focused onthe wrong things.
Tory lies.
Tory overspending.
Winter by-election, poorer people don't have the nice coats to get to the polling station.
Seat is uniquely different, so no lessons to be learned.
Got more than the national vote share in polls, shows message is cutting through.
Message was right but not well delivered.
Tory lies.
The_Apocalypse
There's a part of me that wants Labour to lose this by-election just to see how Corbyn, Thronberry, and Abbott respond. It would also be yet more writing on the wall for Corbyn.
That wall already has more text than the complete works of Shakespeare and Bible combined!
https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/811574341251072001
Labour Steve Gibbons 12,867
Ind Mike Starkie 9,836
Con Chris Whiteside 9,509
after 2nd count
Ind 15,233
Lab 14,529
@ThomasNashe Indeed, but Moamentum are destroying themselves and the hard left are running out of excuses.
There is a strong cultural aversion to the Conservatives in this area, and the party hasn't won the seat for a very long time.
See, to be elected mayor, it isn't enough to be named after a monkey, you have to dress up as a monkey too. Good effort though.
However, might the funky Mr Gibbons be the Lab candidate in the by-election?
The Tories won a by-election in neighbouring Workington in 1976 but lost it back to Labour at the 1979 general election.
Both of these things seem likely, don't they?
An absolute classic PB post. Thank you Mr. Navabi for my first real belly laugh of the day.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/811539156149141504
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXq8rELhUkw
Nucular.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoASZyihalc