politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the Ho

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

@ydoethur Three and Sky (& BT Wholesale I guess) run my "Phone system(s). It works OK.

When are you scheduled to get gigabit fibre optic? Sky are building a trial network in Yorkshire right now with a view to going national at some point, BT aren't even close.

We have got our gigabit fibre optic in North Yorkshire.
Gigabit upload and download, unlimited, £30 per month.

Did it ourselves.

Broadband for the Rural North

Obscuring the eyes beggars belief.

Note to Germany That is what you do for innocent bystanders, not the actual suspect.

Thick as pigshit.

Guido's advice:

"To all you news junkies and political obssessives [sic], Guido’s advice is, take a break. We wish you all, a very merry Christmas…"

(http://order-order.com/2016/12/21/happy-christmas-2/)

I guess some of us fall into this camp. I need a break, what a year 2016 has been.

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

Mr. Pubgoer, maybe we should start a branding campaign.

You're Safe With A Slaphead.

PlatoSaid said:

AndyJS said:

"German police are hunting a Tunisian man over the Berlin market attack after finding documents in the truck, according to reports.

The identity document was found under the driver's seat of the truck which ploughed into crowds at the Christmas market on Monday evening, killing 12 people.

Der Spiegel and Allgemeine Zeitung reported that the document, apparently asylum office papers, was in the name of Anis A, born in 1992 in Tataouine, Tunisia."

http://news.sky.com/story/berlin-attack-tunisian-man-identified-as-suspect-from-truck-documents-10703902

Tataouine? That's a spelling error - they meant Tatooine.

Weren't the Tatooine scenes in the original film shot in Tunisia?

This is a thoroughly irresponsible piece by the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/21/rolls-royce-exploited-us-sanctions-loopholes-to-trade-with-iran

You have to read two-thirds of the way through the article before you discover that the story is actually 'Rolls-Royce complied with all US laws in its dealings with Iran.'

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

PlatoSaid said:

Happy Birthday to @AndyJS - I hope I got this right. I was too tiddled by 5pm to recall much of the previous 12hrs.

Or was it @Hertsmere_Pubgoer ?

The ability of fizz to rob me of almost an entire day is quite remarkable!

It might be both of us.

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

And a fair bit of luck not to get lynched by the mob as he left the scene.

PlatoSaid said:

Happy Birthday to @AndyJS - I hope I got this right. I was too tiddled by 5pm to recall much of the previous 12hrs.

Or was it @Hertsmere_Pubgoer ?

The ability of fizz to rob me of almost an entire day is quite remarkable!

Correct on both.
Happy birthday to AndyJS

Mr. Doethur, quite. Poor child.

Mr. Pubgoer, happy birthday. Hope you don't get birthday and Christmas presents rolled into one.

foxinsoxuk said:

Number 14 may well be our very own @TwistedFireStopper

My favourite headline in tbe Leicester Mercury after the Bali bombing: "Bali bomb, 200 dead, Leicester family's holiday ruined"

There has to be a local angle.

I recall seeing one after 9/11 which went along the lines of -

America under attack. Blackburn student's plane grounded.

Truly the German police are a bunch of bungling fools. If this were happening over here in the same manner I'd expect Rudd, Sadiq and the Met commissioner to face a huge amount of grilling by parliament. This investigation is completely farcical.

Morning all

On topic, perfectly reasonable to suppose the Democrats will stage a comeback in 2018. The astonishing success of Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America" in 1994 came after the incoming Clinton Presidency looked weak and out of control.

The most fascinating aspect of the incoming Trump administration for me is the rapprochement with Moscow which offers opportunities in some key regions for genuine progress. Tillerson and Ivanov will hopefully move things forward. This new detente may discomfort some in Europe but it's actually quite refreshing if it happens.

The other player in this is China. Almost as a reversal of the Nixon-Kissinger years a warming in Russo-American relations leaves Beijing sidelined. How this will play out in terms of North Korea and the South China Sea I don't know but Europe risks being a backwater on the wrong side of the world in the Pacific century.

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

Or a huge degree of unprofessionalism within the German police and intelligence services. I don't think this would ever happen here.

AlastairMeeks said:

Official confirmation that Leavers are naughty and Remainers are nice:

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/811491620688461824

So people think Father Christmas is left wing.

Would they want Father Christmas as PM though?

SouthamObserver said:

One of the really big costs in the US is medicines. Unlike almost anywhere else in the world, there are no big controls on the pricing of on-patent drugs and very little if any compulsory licensing. The simple fact is that US citizens subsidise the rest of the world on healthcare because the US is the place where research-based life sciences companies make their big money. We are very lucky that they do, but I would not be at all surprised if one day soon US politicians cotton onto this. If (when?) they do, it will present very serious issues for governments elsewhere.

While that's more or less true, prescription drugs account for slightly less than 10% of US healthcare spending, and they probably get some economic return on the resulting drug development activity in the US - which is dominant worldwide.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

4merfetus ‏@4merfetus 12m
That should be easy to spot. We're looking for a guy walking around with a black bar in front of his face.

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, quite. Poor child.

Mr. Pubgoer, happy birthday. Hope you don't get birthday and Christmas presents rolled into one.

I always hated that. My mum used to make up for it by getting me 5 little gifts for each day between 20-25th instead.

Thought it was a lovely idea and I appreciated it a lot, given most others sent a Christmas card with a £1 note/record token saying it was for both. Gee thanks for the thought.

It's the perils of a birthday at this time of year.
A couple of my mates have NYE as a birthday and they really don't like that.

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

Or a huge degree of unprofessionalism within the German police and intelligence services. I don't think this would ever happen here.

Isn't this similar to the 21/7 attempted bomb attacks in London? Pictures not released for a day, an innocent man shot dead by police, and the bombers thankfully caught a week or so later?

RationalPlan said:

Hmm, before we get too smug about the british police, remember the jean charles de menezes case and the poorly attempted cover up.

Surely that's why we wouldn't see the same level of bungling here as we are in Berlin.

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

Or a huge degree of unprofessionalism within the German police and intelligence services. I don't think this would ever happen here.

Isn't this similar to the 21/7 attempted bomb attacks in London? Pictures not released for a day, an innocent man shot dead by police, and the bombers thankfully caught a week or so later?

Which is surely why they wouldn't do it again. The Germans have not learned the same lessons. The French have though.

Mr. Herdson, I meant 'stopped' as in shot by police or lynched by a mob, not stopped on the way.

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

Wouldn't the dead Polish driver be difficult to explain away if he'd been stopped?

Not sure about this particular model, but many HGV cabs have little sleeping compartments behind the seats for when the drivers are on long journeys. It'd be easy to hide a body in one, in such a way it wouldn't be discovered unless someone actually went back there.

P'haps. Though a Tunisian ID card might lead to more questions if he had been stopped.

I do think people are rather jumping to assumptions about the German investigation. It might be incompetent, or they might just be doing things right. We cannot know until later.

@josiasJessop To release a picture of the suspect with eyes obscured though ?!

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

Wouldn't the dead Polish driver be difficult to explain away if he'd been stopped?

Not sure about this particular model, but many HGV cabs have little sleeping compartments behind the seats for when the drivers are on long journeys. It'd be easy to hide a body in one, in such a way it wouldn't be discovered unless someone actually went back there.

P'haps. Though a Tunisian ID card might lead to more questions if he had been stopped.

I do think people are rather jumping to assumptions about the German investigation. It might be incompetent, or they might just be doing things right. We cannot know until later.

Releasing a picture with a black bar? WTF is this shit?!

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

Wouldn't the dead Polish driver be difficult to explain away if he'd been stopped?

Not sure about this particular model, but many HGV cabs have little sleeping compartments behind the seats for when the drivers are on long journeys. It'd be easy to hide a body in one, in such a way it wouldn't be discovered unless someone actually went back there.

P'haps. Though a Tunisian ID card might lead to more questions if he had been stopped.

I do think people are rather jumping to assumptions about the German investigation. It might be incompetent, or they might just be doing things right. We cannot know until later.

Releasing a picture with a black bar? WTF is this shit?!

The Daily Mail has found a full picture - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4054140/How-German-police-bungled-hunt-Europe-s-wanted-man-Asylum-seeker-23-wrongly-blamed-Christmas-market-massacre-jumping-red-light.html

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

Wouldn't the dead Polish driver be difficult to explain away if he'd been stopped?

Not sure about this particular model, but many HGV cabs have little sleeping compartments behind the seats for when the drivers are on long journeys. It'd be easy to hide a body in one, in such a way it wouldn't be discovered unless someone actually went back there.

P'haps. Though a Tunisian ID card might lead to more questions if he had been stopped.

I do think people are rather jumping to assumptions about the German investigation. It might be incompetent, or they might just be doing things right. We cannot know until later.

It does look like a sleeper cab.

Miss Plato, check your privilege.

Elf lives matter.

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

Or a huge degree of unprofessionalism within the German police and intelligence services. I don't think this would ever happen here.

Isn't this similar to the 21/7 attempted bomb attacks in London? Pictures not released for a day, an innocent man shot dead by police, and the bombers thankfully caught a week or so later?

Which is surely why they wouldn't do it again. The Germans have not learned the same lessons. The French have though.

LOL. How on earth can you make those assumptions? We cannot know, given the little information *we* have at the moment, whether our forces would be doing anything differently from the Germans at this point.

One thing the Germans will hopefully have learnt from the Belgians back in March in particular is to get other countries' forces involved asap. See if the French, the Brits, the Yanks, have heard or seen anything that, with hindsight, might be connected. Rumours are they might.

And rumours are fragile little things at times like this.

Wilders doesn't like Merkel.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/12/20/20/3B8BFD2E00000578-0-image-a-5_1482265117543.jpg

Germany's strict privacy laws are probably the reason for the obscured eyes, even if it doesn't make sense on this occasion. The same privacy laws possibly contributed to the German Wings plane crash, where the pilot's medical problems weren't passed on to the airline even though it might have endangered the passengers.

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Why would the alleged attacker leave ID? Unless they were planning a one-way trip, then it surely is red herring?

For the attacker to get away suggests a high degree of professionalism and planning.

Or a huge degree of unprofessionalism within the German police and intelligence services. I don't think this would ever happen here.

Isn't this similar to the 21/7 attempted bomb attacks in London? Pictures not released for a day, an innocent man shot dead by police, and the bombers thankfully caught a week or so later?

Which is surely why they wouldn't do it again. The Germans have not learned the same lessons. The French have though.

LOL. How on earth can you make those assumptions? We cannot know, given the little information *we* have at the moment, whether our forces would be doing anything differently from the Germans at this point.

One thing the Germans will hopefully have learnt from the Belgians back in March in particular is to get other countries' forces involved asap. See if the French, the Brits, the Yanks, have heard or seen anything that, with hindsight, might be connected. Rumours are they might.

And rumours are fragile little things at times like this.

Well for one this guy was known to intelligence and in contact with known terrorists, he'd been arrested and charged for crimes, had 8 different identities and was registered with two asylum different centres. It looks like a failure from beginning to end.

It's obviously not just Erdogan you want to defend, but Merkel as well for some reason. I honestly don't get it.

Max, you're out of order there. Calm down.

I've been critical of Erdogan on plenty of occasions; it's just that I don't descend to the depths that you do. I've also criticised Merkel many times for her policy wrt the immigrants, and said that Cameron got the UK's policy right.

I do try to explain the difficult situation the Turks find themselves in. Which you, sadly, do not appear to like.

Just dawned on me that the Nice attacker was Tunisian as well.

Wow, that's quite a sig - a wall of double strand barbed wired with added sharp bits.

Hope the USAF drone force has a safety catch..

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/811539156149141504?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

MaxPB said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, possible he anticipated being stopped but had a contingency plan to escape.

Happy birthday, Mr. JS. And, er, the other chap whose birthday it is today too.

Wouldn't the dead Polish driver be difficult to explain away if he'd been stopped?

The current theory is that he wasn't dead and was killed when he tried to take control of the steering wheel when the terrorist started driving through the market. Truly a hero if that is true, he has saved countless people from injury and possible death.

That makes sense - I hadn't seen that detail. Thanks.

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Eh? I don't understand the bet suggested by Raymond Kennedy in the last line of his thread in which he suggests laying the Republicans' control of the House, following assumed mid-term losses, etc.
I can't see this bet with Betfair as the lay odds of 1.11 to which he refers relate to the current position, i.e. as a result of the November elections as confirmed by the rules governing this market:
"Which party will control a majority of House of Representatives seats as a result of the 2016 US House of Representatives elections?"

You're right - THE MARKET IS FOR THE CURRENT HOUSE.

AMEND THE HEADER.

SERIOUSLY

This market:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865736/market?marketId=1.125797376
Is the only market related to congressional elections, and it's definitely 2016 not 2018.

Laying Rep or backing Dem is throwing away your money unless something weird happens before Congress meets in January.

I'm really sorry... I've made a massive mistake here in misreading the market.

Apologies to all and thanks to those who pointed it out so quickly.

Luckyguy1983 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seO5-x_ue_g

Christmas celebrations in Aleppo.

Awesome!!!

AndyJS said:

I always thought it was likely the attacker wouldn't be from Syria or Iraq, and that instead it would probably be an economic migrant from a country with a history of terrorism like Tunisia.

Indeed. The problem with Merkel's open doors policy was that it let in a large volume of chancers who were neither Syrian nor refugees.

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Eh? I don't understand the bet suggested by Raymond Kennedy in the last line of his thread in which he suggests laying the Republicans' control of the House, following assumed mid-term losses, etc.
I can't see this bet with Betfair as the lay odds of 1.11 to which he refers relate to the current position, i.e. as a result of the November elections as confirmed by the rules governing this market:
"Which party will control a majority of House of Representatives seats as a result of the 2016 US House of Representatives elections?"

You're right - THE MARKET IS FOR THE CURRENT HOUSE.

AMEND THE HEADER.

SERIOUSLY

This market:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865736/market?marketId=1.125797376
Is the only market related to congressional elections, and it's definitely 2016 not 2018.

Laying Rep or backing Dem is throwing away your money unless something weird happens before Congress meets in January.

I'm really sorry... I've made a massive mistake here in misreading the market.

Apologies to all and thanks to those who pointed it out so quickly.

No worries, was an otherwise good piece. Nice to see more people volunteering to write the leaders.

Miss Plato, one of the seminars at university (psychology degree, 99% female course) was about what people found attractive unattractive [men - if you ever find yourself in a comparable situation the correct answer is saying you find women who are too skinny unattractive].

A tall, and quite lovely, girl said she didn't like dating shorter men (she must've been 6' or 6'2", so that's quite a lot of chaps) to which there was much nodding of agreement.

Pulpstar said:

@Sandpit Clearly life is better under Putin, Assad and Hezbollah than Obama, Al-Nusra and ISIS

Great to see Christmas celebrated everywhere in the world, especially where there has been conflict during the year.

Also great to point out to the atheist jobsworths in Britain that it's Christmas in most of the Muslim world too - or maybe that 50' tree I walked past last night - with a full size nativity scene at the base - was for something else?
https://twitter.com/MallofEmirates/status/809361896734359552

Merry Christmas everyone!

@rkrkrk

I've replied to your message.

My other half is 6'2, shes said it would be weird for her to go out with anyone under 6 foot. I'm 6'1.