politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexi

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.

williamglenn said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.

A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.

Shocking isn't it. We say we are leaving, and now they are not interested in our views anymore. Who would have thought?

@viewcode is right. When the EU 27 have decided what the deal is, they will let us know. We can then decide to take it or leave it.

Indeed, surely they would only be interested in why the UK voted to leave if they believed there was any chance/risk of others voting the same way. It suggests they are very confident of the EU's popularity in all the other 27 countries.

The video clip of "Theresa No Mates" was resonant because it showed the rather bleak reality of Brexit.

She is so devoid of people skills that I wonder how she got so far in politics. Between her and the three Brexiteers we have a hopless negotiating team. A poor position being led by a poor leader.

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.

williamglenn said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.

A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.

Shocking isn't it. We say we are leaving, and now they are not interested in our views anymore. Who would have thought?

@viewcode is right. When the EU 27 have decided what the deal is, they will let us know. We can then decide to take it or leave it.

Indeed, surely they would only be interested in why the UK voted to leave if they believed there was any chance/risk of others voting the same way. It suggests they are very confident of the EU's popularity in all the other 27 countries.

The video clip of "Theresa No Mates" was resonant because it showed the rather bleak reality of Brexit.

She is so devoid of people skills that I wonder how she got so far in politics. Between her and the three Brexiteers we have a hopless negotiating team. A poor position being led by a poor leader.

Yorkcity said:

BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

Yorkcity said:

BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM

The campaign to leave would have continued, but we wouldn't be trying to overturn the referendum decision. Remain is now rejoin, if remain campaigners want to campaign to rejoin the EU that is up to them, campaigning to overturn a democratic vote is disgusting. I guess the issue is that the smartest remainers know that rejoining will be supported by less than 20% of the public and our future in the EU is dead once we've served A50 and there will br no going back so frustrating that process and trying to overturn the referendum result is the only way we could ever stay in the EU now, regardless of how undemocratic the means. The EU has become an article of faith for some of your lot as much as leaving was for so many of mine before the referendum. You decry leavers as swivel eyed but you are no different by campaigning to overturn the result.

So hypothetically if Theresa May called an election next year and by some amazing occurrence it resulted in a lib dem majority... What should happen?

We should leave but immediately apply to rejoin?

Yes.

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

Yorkcity said:

BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM

The campaign to leave would have continued, but we wouldn't be trying to overturn the referendum decision. Remain is now rejoin, if remain campaigners want to campaign to rejoin the EU that is up to them, campaigning to overturn a democratic vote is disgusting. I guess the issue is that the smartest remainers know that rejoining will be supported by less than 20% of the public and our future in the EU is dead once we've served A50 and there will br no going back so frustrating that process and trying to overturn the referendum result is the only way we could ever stay in the EU now, regardless of how undemocratic the means. The EU has become an article of faith for some of your lot as much as leaving was for so many of mine before the referendum. You decry leavers as swivel eyed but you are no different by campaigning to overturn the result.

So hypothetically if Theresa May called an election next year and by some amazing occurrence it resulted in a lib dem majority... What should happen?

We should leave but immediately apply to rejoin?

Yes.

No obligation to have a referendum either, as the LDs would have an electoral mandate ;-)

williamglenn said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

Yorkcity said:

BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM

The campaign to leave would have continued, but we wouldn't be trying to overturn the referendum decision. Remain is now rejoin, if remain campaigners want to campaign to rejoin the EU that is up to them, campaigning to overturn a democratic vote is disgusting. I guess the issue is that the smartest remainers know that rejoining will be supported by less than 20% of the public and our future in the EU is dead once we've served A50 and there will br no going back so frustrating that process and trying to overturn the referendum result is the only way we could ever stay in the EU now, regardless of how undemocratic the means. The EU has become an article of faith for some of your lot as much as leaving was for so many of mine before the referendum. You decry leavers as swivel eyed but you are no different by campaigning to overturn the result.

So hypothetically if Theresa May called an election next year and by some amazing occurrence it resulted in a lib dem majority... What should happen?

We should leave but immediately apply to rejoin?

Yes.

No obligation to have a referendum either, as the LDs would have an electoral mandate ;-)

And they'd have an excuse for signing us up to the Euro so what's not to like?

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I live in the sixth best place to live in the UK!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38351138

I could happily move to any of the top ten, though I might have trouble to persuade Mrs J to move to Orkney!

Orkney seems an odd place to be second; as are the Orkneys at 18th.

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

Yorkcity said:

BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM

The campaign to leave would have continued, but we wouldn't be trying to overturn the referendum decision. Remain is now rejoin, if remain campaigners want to campaign to rejoin the EU that is up to them, campaigning to overturn a democratic vote is disgusting. I guess the issue is that the smartest remainers know that rejoining will be supported by less than 20% of the public and our future in the EU is dead once we've served A50 and there will br no going back so frustrating that process and trying to overturn the referendum result is the only way we could ever stay in the EU now, regardless of how undemocratic the means. The EU has become an article of faith for some of your lot as much as leaving was for so many of mine before the referendum. You decry leavers as swivel eyed but you are no different by campaigning to overturn the result.

So hypothetically if Theresa May called an election next year and by some amazing occurrence it resulted in a lib dem majority... What should happen?

We should leave but immediately apply to rejoin?

Yorkcity said:

Big g George Osborne he tried to advice Cameron against his hubris on an unnecessary referendum.The conservative party to its credit already had a good deal with the EU conducted by Thatcher and Major not in the single currency or shengen to name but two.They were already semi detached they did not to need to throw the baby out with the bath water.

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

You do not address the main points of my comments by taking a 'pop' at me for accepting the democratic vote and wanting to get on with the process.

Theresa May is the only leader at present competent enough to take on this complex issue and I would suggest no leader since the war has a more difficult problem to solve. If you can suggest someone else who could lead the Country at present please do so.

I did not suggest those who want to remain should 'shut up' but to take a more positive way forward and stop trying to play the referendum again and actually frustrate the will of the people

Theresa May is certainly the only viable option. That is our tragedy, because the task looks to be beyond her.

As for being positive, we Remainers have a moral duty to criticise the Government given the utter lack of Opposition.

Jason said:

I bet 90% of the public just wish the government and the EU would get on with this. It's getting increasingly tiresome.

AnneJGP said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.

Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...

Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.

I ascribe to both those positions.

The only way to resolve it is to create a single federal state with massive fiscal transfers and free movement of people.

Good luck to them but I don't want the UK to be part of it.

I believe the rest of the EU will have a much greater chance of succeeding once the UK has left. We just don't seem to be the right sort of 'fit' and would always have been a spanner in the works.

How long it will take for the peoples of Europe to feel like a single body is outside my guessing, but once the fact of a single state has been accomplished, no doubt they'll settle down to it eventually.

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

I don't disagree. She will go on and on, unless felled by a lunatic insurgency on her own benches. But she's still not up to much.

It's been nearly six months now. Can anyone give me an example of an actual policy advance?

This is a zombie government. The Major comparison is apt, it's like the 1993-1997 era.

OllyT said:

AnneJGP said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.

Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...

Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.

I ascribe to both those positions.

The only way to resolve it is to create a single federal state with massive fiscal transfers and free movement of people.

Good luck to them but I don't want the UK to be part of it.

I believe the rest of the EU will have a much greater chance of succeeding once the UK has left. We just don't seem to be the right sort of 'fit' and would always have been a spanner in the works.

How long it will take for the peoples of Europe to feel like a single body is outside my guessing, but once the fact of a single state has been accomplished, no doubt they'll settle down to it eventually.

I agree and think it's quite a sad indictment of this country that the rest of Europe will in fact be better off without the UK and our perpetual whingeing. It's what the Brexiters want and now they have got it but their chances of uniting the country behind it are zero.

YellowSubmarine said:

As so often I agree with the handsome and erudite Mr Meeks. Brexit won. Brexit is now our paradigm. The debate has now moved on and that debate is testing Brexit to destruction. We need to discover what Brexit actually means, whether it's what Brexit advocates said it would be. Or indeed what Brexit opponents said it would be. We can't rerun the 23rd of June because neither the UK nor the EU of 23rd of June exists anymore.

That's not to say we shouldn't fight Brexit. We must exhaust every democratic and non violent means of doing fighting Brexit. But we must do it by accepting Brexit as the new paradigm. I think a second referendum is for the birds.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I live in the sixth best place to live in the UK!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38351138

I could happily move to any of the top ten, though I might have trouble to persuade Mrs J to move to Orkney!

Orkney seems an odd place to be second; as are the Orkneys at 18th.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

I don't disagree. She will go on and on, unless felled by a lunatic insurgency on her own benches. But she's still not up to much.

It's been nearly six months now. Can anyone give me an example of an actual policy advance?

This is a zombie government. The Major comparison is apt, it's like the 1993-1997 era.

The reason that we are in a semi vacuum is the legal arguments and the Supreme Court hearing.

When the judgement is delivered in January I expect Theresa May to accept the verdict and immediately take the action required to permit A50 to be served.

You will see action from then on, but if I am wrong, you will have reason to justify your statement but you do not have that at present

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

I don't disagree. She will go on and on, unless felled by a lunatic insurgency on her own benches. But she's still not up to much.

It's been nearly six months now. Can anyone give me an example of an actual policy advance?

This is a zombie government. The Major comparison is apt, it's like the 1993-1997 era.

The reason that we are in a semi vacuum is the legal arguments and the Supreme Court hearing.

When the judgement is delivered in January I expect Theresa May to accept the verdict and immediately take the action required to permit A50 to be served.

You will see action from then on, but if I am wrong, you will have reason to justify your statement but you do not have that at present

I'm not talking about Brexit, I'm talking about everything else.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

I don't disagree. She will go on and on, unless felled by a lunatic insurgency on her own benches. But she's still not up to much.

It's been nearly six months now. Can anyone give me an example of an actual policy advance?

This is a zombie government. The Major comparison is apt, it's like the 1993-1997 era.

The reason that we are in a semi vacuum is the legal arguments and the Supreme Court hearing.

When the judgement is delivered in January I expect Theresa May to accept the verdict and immediately take the action required to permit A50 to be served.

You will see action from then on, but if I am wrong, you will have reason to justify your statement but you do not have that at present

I'm not talking about Brexit, I'm talking about everything else.

But Brexit is dominating everything else at present

YellowSubmarine said:

@Big_G_NorthWales Cobblers as usual. The High Court granted a leap frog order. The Supreme Court cleared diaries to get a hearing date that would fit with the government's timetable of A50 invocation " early next year ". Only after this did May then say " by the end of March. " at Tory conference. The Courts have worked quickly t meet the government's timetable. The Court hearings have delayed nothing.

And of course the court hearings could have been circumvented at any point by just using an Act anyway then defending the point of law on Prerogative later. Or god forbid the Referendum Act could have had a few extra clauses making it binding.

It's the usual Leaver bed wetting. Their is no conspiracy. The Government has chosen delay f it's own volition because it's bloody complicated and there was no plan. You won. Act like winners. Get on with it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

@Big_G_NorthWales Cobblers as usual. The High Court granted a leap frog order. The Supreme Court cleared diaries to get a hearing date that would fit with the government's timetable of A50 invocation " early next year ". Only after this did May then say " by the end of March. " at Tory conference. The Courts have worked quickly t meet the government's timetable. The Court hearings have delayed nothing.

And of course the court hearings could have been circumvented at any point by just using an Act anyway then defending the point of law on Prerogative later. Or god forbid the Referendum Act could have had a few extra clauses making it binding.

It's the usual Leaver bed wetting. Their is no conspiracy. The Government has chosen delay f it's own volition because it's bloody complicated and there was no plan. You won. Act like winners. Get on with it.

I voted remain.

Theresa May is inhibited by the Supreme Court but I would accept that she is using the delay to give her time to plan the process.

I would be amazed if in late January we are still in a vacuum

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

GW May is a more pleasant personality than Brown and closer to the instincts of the British electorate, she is more Major than Brown. Unlike Brown she has no Cameron to face, instead her opponent at her first election will be Corbyn who is even worse than Kinnock. Major lost when he faced Blair but there is no Blair even on the horizon for Labour at the moment

I don't disagree. She will go on and on, unless felled by a lunatic insurgency on her own benches. But she's still not up to much.

It's been nearly six months now. Can anyone give me an example of an actual policy advance?

This is a zombie government. The Major comparison is apt, it's like the 1993-1997 era.

The reason that we are in a semi vacuum is the legal arguments and the Supreme Court hearing.

When the judgement is delivered in January I expect Theresa May to accept the verdict and immediately take the action required to permit A50 to be served.

You will see action from then on, but if I am wrong, you will have reason to justify your statement but you do not have that at present

I'm not talking about Brexit, I'm talking about everything else.

But Brexit is dominating everything else at present

Precisely. Result: a zombie government, lurching toward the next election, whenever it might be.

Thank goodness variously snubbing and insulting our European neighbours is more important than education, health, or the economy!

I dont see much wrong with our economy

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

@Big_G_NorthWales Cobblers as usual. The High Court granted a leap frog order. The Supreme Court cleared diaries to get a hearing date that would fit with the government's timetable of A50 invocation " early next year ". Only after this did May then say " by the end of March. " at Tory conference. The Courts have worked quickly t meet the government's timetable. The Court hearings have delayed nothing.

And of course the court hearings could have been circumvented at any point by just using an Act anyway then defending the point of law on Prerogative later. Or god forbid the Referendum Act could have had a few extra clauses making it binding.

It's the usual Leaver bed wetting. Their is no conspiracy. The Government has chosen delay f it's own volition because it's bloody complicated and there was no plan. You won. Act like winners. Get on with it.

I voted remain.

Theresa May is inhibited by the Supreme Court but I would accept that she is using the delay to give her time to plan the process.

I would be amazed if in late January we are still in a vacuum

Indeed. The reason for the delay was the complete lack of preparation for the vote, followed by the change of leadership - both of which lie firmly at the door of the previous PM rather than the current incumbent.

As you say, the supreme court verdict early in the new year should be what starts the ball rolling.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

my decision to remain was marginal, probably like the PM.

Sean_F said:

Overall, I'm pretty content with Theresa May's government.

williamglenn said:

Amazing show of consensus from Leavers for the government to continue doing nothing instead of delivering the biggest peacetime upheaval we've ever seen.

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Amazing show of consensus from Leavers for the government to continue doing nothing instead of delivering the biggest peacetime upheaval we've ever seen.

They've said the clock will start at the end of March and that's fine.

Andrew said:

Another Putin critic appears to have been suicided.

paulyork64 said:

I can understand 15pc of leave voters preferring soft brexit. In fact im surprised it's not higher. But 12pc of remain voters preferring hard brexit? Did they tick the wrong box?

Richard_Tyndall said:

viewcode said:

Of course it's the way they intend to behave, for pity's sake! Why would you think they would act differently? I've been saying this for years, including before the vote. The LEAVEr delusion that the UK could dictate its own terms and cherrypick what it wanted was simply that: a delusion. Even the article above is based on the assumption that we can decide on the deal, whether in detail or timescale. I have a horrible feeling that one of my best lines on this board ("when they've worked out what the deal is, they'll tell us") will turn out to be the plain unvarnished truth.

The Remainer delusion was that the UK could stay in the EU and dictate the way in which the whole edifice operated in defiance of the wishes of the other 27 countries.

williamglenn said:

Amazing show of consensus from Leavers for the government to continue doing nothing instead of delivering the biggest peacetime upheaval we've ever seen.