politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Positives for CON, UKIP and the LDs in Sleaford & Hykehem N bu

david_herdson said:

I suspect that a Miliband-led Labour would be ahead in the polls right now. But that of itself tells a story.

Not convinced, though they'd be closer. Corbyn is a symptom as well as a cause.

Tissue_Price said:

david_herdson said:

I suspect that a Miliband-led Labour would be ahead in the polls right now. But that of itself tells a story.

Not convinced, though they'd be closer. Corbyn is a symptom as well as a cause.

They were ahead this time 5 years ago.

It didn't matter one jot.

Mr. kle4, over a decade ago, in another place, most people there guessed I was in my 40s (a few older, a few younger). I was at university at the time, having just left school.

Mr. Submarine, I can't tell if that's good or bad. Liking it?

AlastairMeeks said:

Sleaford was an optional by-election too. But the barometer didn't move when tapped. The other two showed 20% swings to the Lib Dems (and I'm not accepting that Zac Goldsmith was an independent; he had abundant numbers of Conservative MPs treading the streets for him). And you haven't explained the big swing in Witney.

Sleaford was indeed an optional by-election, but the guy who triggered it wasn't standing; there was no reason for a Conservative voter to blame the new candidate for it.

The degree to which Zac was seen as a Conservative candidate is hard to assess; clearly, as you say he had a fair bit of Conservative support, but nonetheless it was an unusual situation, which is why I think it is hard to assess its significance, other than the strong indication of a recovery for the LibDems. Witney also indicates that, but Witney was complicated by the fact that it was the former PM's seat, and was probably much as you'd expect for a by-election in such circumstances.

YellowSubmarine said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, by chance, I'm reading the early part of Livy's Rome and Italy. There's discord between the patricians and plebeians which is tearing politics apart.

I'll let you know how it ends

I'm 14% through your new book. It's not what I expected.

Just out of interest, Mr Submarine, what did you expect from Kingdom Asunder?

I am a Governor at a rural secondary school that delivers results in the top 3% nationally with a below average ability intake. It is a small school in an area of North Yorkshire that faces a significant fall in the number of school age children over the next five years. Budgets are frozen in real terms despite the impact of the national living wage for ancillary staff and higher pensions and NI costs for teaching staff. Despite the constraints, the school is vibrant, delivering results and improving every year.

A Grammar school 20 miles away, encouraged by government policy announcements, plans to increase its intake and so take pupils away from us. An independent school that is much closer would get behind the 'assisted places' scheme and take more pupils away from us.

Best case is that we cut the curriculum and extra curricular activity in order to cut costs, and in the process make ourselves less attractive to pupils and parents. Worst case, we will close and pupils will have an hours trip to and from the nearest town every day.

Education policies designed to overcome poorly performing inner city schools could be the last straw for high performing rural schools!

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Nice trolling. How often does the governing party's share *not* fall in a by-election? Or turnout not fall in a by-election, and a December by-election at that?

As much as I'm loathed to disagree with both you and Tissue Price, the polls indicate double digit leads for the Tories in the poll, due to the Lab share of the vote falling and the Tory share of the vote rising.

Last night we only saw the former, and not the latter.

Mr. 56, sorry to hear that.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dramatically increasing the national minimum wage will bring this in quicker than would be the case.

See McDonalds with automated tills.

Fishing said:

So if we consider Witney, Richmond Park and this one together, what do they tell us about the national picture?

Nothing imho.

The whole point is that you don't consider them together: they're 3 very different seats with different lessons but they might each foreshadow different aspects of the next GE.

There is potential for huge flux at the next election - a LD recovery in the Home Counties, Tory weakness in Remain marginals in and around London, Tory supremacy across the Midlands and market towns, Labour catastrophe everywhere.

The one key by-election type we haven't had yet is a Heywood & Middleton-style one, to properly test the UKIP/Labour interaction. Leigh may yet oblige when Andy Burnham steps down.

Slackbladder said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dramatically increasing the national minimum wage will bring this in quicker than would be the case.

See McDonalds with automated tills.

Last week arriving at Heathrow, my colleague went through the automatic lane, while I went to the conventional desk for my passport to be checked. I got through first, and got a smile from the woman on the desk. You can't beat real human interaction.

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Nice trolling. How often does the governing party's share *not* fall in a by-election? Or turnout not fall in a by-election, and a December by-election at that?

As much as I'm loathed to disagree with both you and Tissue Price, the polls indicate double digit leads for the Tories in the poll, due to the Lab share of the vote falling and the Tory share of the vote rising.

Last night we only saw the former, and not the latter.

Oh, come on Mr. Eagles. The Conservative share fell by a bit less than 3% in a December by-election, in a safe seat and you want to see that as some sort of meaningful falling off of Conservative support.

Cameron's gone and isn't coming back, likewise Osborne. Move on, otherwise your grief and hatred will eat you up.

Interesting story from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-legal-exclusive-idUSKBN13Y0HU

Large banks in Britain want the UK government to allow their industry to remain subject to EU laws for up to five years after Brexit, a move likely to enrage eurosceptics who want to break away from the bloc's legal system as soon as possible. The banks - international players - are also pressing the government to allow the European Court of Justice to rule on decisions related to their businesses during that period, according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with looser capital requirements could it?

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Nice trolling. How often does the governing party's share *not* fall in a by-election? Or turnout not fall in a by-election, and a December by-election at that?

As much as I'm loathed to disagree with both you and Tissue Price, the polls indicate double digit leads for the Tories in the poll, due to the Lab share of the vote falling and the Tory share of the vote rising.

Last night we only saw the former, and not the latter.

Oh, come on Mr. Eagles. The Conservative share fell by a bit less than 3% in a December by-election, in a safe seat and you want to see that as some sort of meaningful falling off of Conservative support.

Cameron's gone and isn't coming back, likewise Osborne. Move on, otherwise your grief and hatred will eat you up.

Osborne is too busy transporting wheelbarrows full of cash to his bank to think about a return to government.

SandyRentool said:

Slackbladder said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dramatically increasing the national minimum wage will bring this in quicker than would be the case.

See McDonalds with automated tills.

Last week arriving at Heathrow, my colleague went through the automatic lane, while I went to the conventional desk for my passport to be checked. I got through first, and got a smile from the woman on the desk. You can't beat real human interaction.

Almost every time I go to the Supermarket I go through self scan and am in and out far quicker. That trumps a fake smile from a cashier.

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting story from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-legal-exclusive-idUSKBN13Y0HU

Large banks in Britain want the UK government to allow their industry to remain subject to EU laws for up to five years after Brexit, a move likely to enrage eurosceptics who want to break away from the bloc's legal system as soon as possible. The banks - international players - are also pressing the government to allow the European Court of Justice to rule on decisions related to their businesses during that period, according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with looser capital requirements could it?

If Fraser Nelson is correct in his column in the Telegraph today then those banks are going to be disappointed.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/807172769138016256

5...4...3...2...1....Justin appears to tells us it isn't really that bad for Labour...

I don't know how TSE could even spin this as bad for Theresa.

SandyRentool said:

PlatoSaid said:

kle4 said:

GeoffM said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

Really? You post like a 16 year old.

I think it would be amusing to compare peoples' perceived ages with their actual ages. For instance I tend to equate poshness with older, patrician types, so anyone who seems posh I mentally picture in their 60s, generally.

In 11days, I'll stop being a 40-something.

I've still got 3 months to go.

"PB nearly 50 Geordies club!"

Ah, unfortunately I passed that milestone eighteen months ago.

Useful idiot alert...

Jeremy Corbyn attended an event hosted by a Khomeinist group on Wednesday night with Press TV and an infamous Israel hater. Guido can reveal Corbyn was at an Islamic Human Rights Commission event launching a book on Palestine by Hatem Bazian. It was chaired by Amina Taylor, who works for the Iranian regime’s television channel Press TV. The Islamic Human Rights Commission is a notorious Khomeinist group – it organises the Al-Quds Day protests in London, an annual anti-Israel demonstration initiated by Ayatollah Khomeini and attended every year by supporters of the terror group Hezbollah. Last year the IHRC gave their ‘Islamophobe of the Year’ award to the murdered staff of Charlie Hebdo.

http://order-order.com/2016/12/09/corbyn-attends-khomeinist-event-with-press-tv-extremists-and-israel-haters/

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/807172769138016256

Now, about that Labour floor.....

Tissue_Price said:

Fishing said:

So if we consider Witney, Richmond Park and this one together, what do they tell us about the national picture?

Nothing imho.

The whole point is that you don't consider them together: they're 3 very different seats with different lessons but they might each foreshadow different aspects of the next GE.

There is potential for huge flux at the next election - a LD recovery in the Home Counties, Tory weakness in Remain marginals in and around London, Tory supremacy across the Midlands and market towns, Labour catastrophe everywhere.

The one key by-election type we haven't had yet is a Heywood & Middleton-style one, to properly test the UKIP/Labour interaction. Leigh may yet oblige when Andy Burnham steps down.

If UKIP were halfway a serious political party then they would have massively prepared the groundwork for a serious push on Leigh in its inevitable by election. If they can't win that in these circumstances against Corbyn then where can they win? Second place is first loser.

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SandyRentool said:

Slackbladder said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dramatically increasing the national minimum wage will bring this in quicker than would be the case.

See McDonalds with automated tills.

Last week arriving at Heathrow, my colleague went through the automatic lane, while I went to the conventional desk for my passport to be checked. I got through first, and got a smile from the woman on the desk. You can't beat real human interaction.

Almost every time I go to the Supermarket I go through self scan and am in and out far quicker. That trumps a fake smile from a cashier.

It may not be a fake smile. She may be thanking me for taking a little longer in a queue to give her a job....

Selfish bastards use self scan.

Given the story yesterday...might be smiling at not being banged up 20hrs a day...

NickPalmer said:

A bit meh all round IMO. OK result for Tories in second year of Parliament but vote share down a bit. Not good for UKIP, vote share down in a strong Leave here. OK for LDs but sugests little post-Richmond bump. Not good for Labour but avoiding the embarassmrent of early predictions (losing deposit, coming 5th). It basically turned into the question of who could get postal votes out best, and the Tories were clearly best at that.

Incidentally, the vote column of the header is format as if it were %s (two significant places) and the last column on votes is cut off.

This is far too complacent. Labour in England now finds itself in the same position in relation to its opponents as Labour in Scotland found itself after Indyref.

Brexit is the defining issue of the day and will remain (sorry) so for the forseeable future. And on that issue there is no discernible difference between Labour's position and that of the Tory government.

The Lib Dems have a clear position - to try to reverse the referendum result.
UKIP has a clear position - to leave immediately without any agreement about future relationships.
The Tory position is to leave with some form of agreement, the details of which are unclear and the subject of intractable disagreement between various factions within the Party.
And the Labour position is....to leave with some form of agreement, the details of which are unclear and the subject of intractable disagreement between various factions within the Party.

This is a disastrous position for Labour to be in - if the Brexit process proves as difficult and traumatic as many people expect Labour needs to be in a position to capitalise on that and blame the Tories. As things are Labour will simply share the blame and voters - already alienated by Corbyn's leadership - will turn away.

Con lead vs Lab;

18-24: -24
25-49: -7
50-64: +27
65+ +49

Tissue_Price said:

david_herdson said:

I suspect that a Miliband-led Labour would be ahead in the polls right now. But that of itself tells a story.

Not convinced, though they'd be closer. Corbyn is a symptom as well as a cause.

There's a lot for a half-competent opposition to attack, from Brexit confusion to Boris. If Labour's front bench had anyone competent on it (and on the ball), Boris would be under immense pressure this morning. Think of what the likes of Robin Cook would have done. The government has a lot of balls in the air at the moment and it shouldn't be too hard to cause them to drop a few - or even to point out to the public when they do. At the moment, Corbyn and Co aren't even capable of that.

Forget the Alt-Right.

Labour are becoming Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Laters...

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/807176376038080512

UKIP's share still respectable. If Nuttall doesn't get a grip, I could see it dropping to 8 or 9 points.

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/807177317667762176

Deleted - Beaten to it by TP

AlastairMeeks said:

For amusement value only, that YouGov poll would result on a uniform swing (on existing boundaries) in a Conservative majority of 108. Among the seats that Labour would lose on a uniform swing are Mansfield, Newport West and Bristol East.

Wait until swingback kicks in...

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/807177317667762176

Absolute vote share is not the best measure of "worst". Poor vote shares in Winchester and Romsey were not signs that Labour were in any trouble.

Of those 10, it's a toss-up for me which result is worst out of Eastleigh and Sleaford & North Hykeham, though you could make an argument for Henley too. On balance I think I'd choose Eastleigh as the worst result because there was no particular reason why Labour couldn't have done quite well there if they had constructed a message truly capable of appealing to a one nation Britain.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Deleted - Beaten to it by TP

Hmmm. Not sure that proves anything. Winchester, Romsey and Ceredigion were all in Blair's first term, and we all remember how he lost power at the election in 2001, giving power to PM Hague.

AFAICR two had unusual causes; Oaten's Winchester win due to a close election, and Ceredigion because of someone standing down? Only Romsey and the tragic death of the Conservative MP was in any way a standard by-election.

Both Richmond Park and Sleaford were, to some extent, unusual by-elections, and ones in which Labour traditionally do not do well.

AlastairMeeks said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/807177317667762176

Absolute vote share is not the best measure of "worst". Poor vote shares in Winchester and Romsey were not signs that Labour were in any trouble.

Of those 10, it's a toss-up for me which result is worst out of Eastleigh and Sleaford & North Hykeham, though you could make an argument for Henley too. On balance I think I'd choose Eastleigh as the worst result because there was no particular reason why Labour couldn't have done quite well there if they had constructed a message truly capable of appealing to a one nation Britain.

Henley every time for me. They finished fifth behind the BNP.

These certainly don't look like the vote shares of an opposition heading for goverment.

@jessicaelgot: It's understandable Labour want to pursue "sane middle" Brexit strategy.Problem is no one feels "sane middle" about it, it's anger both ways

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/807148600425934848

So we're heading for another Labour leadership crisis ? And probably leadership challenge ?

JosiasJessop said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SandyRentool said:

Slackbladder said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dramatically increasing the national minimum wage will bring this in quicker than would be the case.

See McDonalds with automated tills.

Last week arriving at Heathrow, my colleague went through the automatic lane, while I went to the conventional desk for my passport to be checked. I got through first, and got a smile from the woman on the desk. You can't beat real human interaction.

Almost every time I go to the Supermarket I go through self scan and am in and out far quicker. That trumps a fake smile from a cashier.

You'll only get fake smiles if you're fake. I love chatting up to cashiers.

And as I believe in equality, I'll chat up to both male and female cashiers.

Me too, Mr. Jessup. That human interaction makes up for the, on the whole grisly, experience of shopping in a supermarket. The staff at our local Waitrose are superb both at the checkouts and in the aisles helping people find products.

The best staff of all at a big chain are in my local B&Q, who seem to have put customer service at the very top of its priority list. I went there to buy some LED light bulbs to replace the halogen ones in the Kitchen and the staff couldn't have been nicer or more helpful, leading me (not quite by the hand) to the right place in the vast shop, discussing with me exactly what I needed, making sure I got back to the check out OK, and so on. On top of that, because it was a Wednesday, making sure I got my 10% OAP discount.

Self-service checkouts, robot ordering systems and all the dreadful rigidity that goes with them ("foreign object in the bagging area", trying to find a member of staff because you want to buy a bottle of wine and all the rest of the ghastliness) might save the shop money but seriously detracts from the enjoyment of everyday life.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/807172769138016256

Go Jezza!!!!!!!!!!

CarlottaVance said:

Best PM

May vs Corbyn

18-24: -2
25-49: +17
50-64: +45
65+ +66

I'm surprised anyone bothered asking that question. Corbyn is the worst leader Labour have ever had so you might as well compare him to a bicycle seat.

The real mark of Labour's failure-by a mile the worst result of the night-is that if BREXIT was the most important question either for or against there were no circumstance where a vote for them could be the answer

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For amusement value only, that YouGov poll would result on a uniform swing (on existing boundaries) in a Conservative majority of 108. Among the seats that Labour would lose on a uniform swing are Mansfield, Newport West and Bristol East.

Wait until swingback kicks in...

If you do Crosby by-election swingback on the by-election we just had it pretty much matches that YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807180949100314625

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyndall, if memory serves, Antigonus Monopthalmus was that age, or perhaps older, when he started rising to real prominence.

You do give me hope then. A friend and I were sat in a pub a few weeks ago discussing this. He is in his mid 50s, I in my early 50s, and we were trying to come up with examples of people in arts, music, literature or science who didn't really start to do their best work until they were in their 50s. In modern post war music I am inclined to the belief that all great work is done by the young, usually in their first 2 or 3 albums at most. The same seems generally to apply to literature and the sciences. I would love to hear of examples where people first became successful later in life but - perhaps with the exception of politics - they seem few and far between.

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For amusement value only, that YouGov poll would result on a uniform swing (on existing boundaries) in a Conservative majority of 108. Among the seats that Labour would lose on a uniform swing are Mansfield, Newport West and Bristol East.

Wait until swingback kicks in...

If you do Crosby by-election swingback on the by-election we just had it pretty much matches that YouGov poll.

Do you have the details of the swingback model ?

Also does anyone have a Lebo-Norpeth (PM/pendulum) method anywhere. I tried to find it online but the academic papers are all pay to play

On the rare occasions I pay in cheques, I always go to the cashier rather than use a machine. Leaving aside that I'd likely forget how they work (I get about one cheque a year) it's preferable to have human interaction, I think. Likewise, I paid that recent tax bill at the post office rather than online.

*nudges Mr. Submarine* come on, old bean, you can't tantalise me by saying something like that and then not explaining what you mean.

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Deleted - Beaten to it by TP

Hmmm. Not sure that proves anything. Winchester, Romsey and Ceredigion were all in Blair's first term, and we all remember how he lost power at the election in 2001, giving power to PM Hague.

AFAICR two had unusual causes; Oaten's Winchester win due to a close election, and Ceredigion because of someone standing down? Only Romsey and the tragic death of the Conservative MP was in any way a standard by-election.

Both Richmond Park and Sleaford were, to some extent, unusual by-elections, and ones in which Labour traditionally do not do well.

I don't think Sleaford is particularly unusual actually.

A sitting MP of the governing party standing down, not because of another job, scandal or illness, but because he openly disagreed with the government ("irreconcilable policy differences")? Aside from Richmond Park, which was caused by the MP's disagreement over Heathrow, when did that last happen?

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807180949100314625

And just 52% of 2015 LD voters...

It's interesting that Labour still win 2016 Remain voters. That will surely change as they're forced off the fence.