The only positive for Labour in this by election result is the failure of UKIP to gain traction at all. Coming second is meaningless when the party concerned is losing vote share . Far better to have come third with 20% of the vote than second on 13.5%. Other than the Tories UKIP had more invested in this campaign, and the outcome has been a very damp squib for them. That should give Labour some solace re- defending Northern heartlands.
I share your scepticism about how high Ukip can push its ceiling of support, but we stand to be proven wrong by events. The SNP were a loud yet marginal force for decades, until circumstances changed. Then they weren't marginal anymore.
It should also be added that both Ukip and the Lib Dems only need to erode Labour's vote more than that of the Tories to allow the latter to start winning more Con/Lab marginal seats. Of course, if Nuttall can do better than that, turn his party into a vehicle for English nationalism and knock out a couple of dozen Labour MPs in the North, then Labour is probably finished as a leading party of Government.
I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.
The trouble is that without the handle of EU exit to hang onto, they are left with only the philosophy and platform of far-right nationalism. The British experience has been that its appeal is both significantly more limited (than in countries with more traumatic histories) and more easily co-opted (in part at least) by the conservative mainstream at times when it looks to be gathering support.
Edit/ and recall that the BNP (etc.) too only posed any threat in safe Labour areas such as Barking, Stoke, as we see UKIp shift away from its roots in the saloon bars of the Home Counties
Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.
Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.
Nice trolling. How often does the governing party's share *not* fall in a by-election? Or turnout not fall in a by-election, and a December by-election at that?
As much as I'm loathed to disagree with both you and Tissue Price, the polls indicate double digit leads for the Tories in the poll, due to the Lab share of the vote falling and the Tory share of the vote rising.
Last night we only saw the former, and not the latter.
Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.
Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.
Nice trolling. How often does the governing party's share *not* fall in a by-election? Or turnout not fall in a by-election, and a December by-election at that?
As much as I'm loathed to disagree with both you and Tissue Price, the polls indicate double digit leads for the Tories in the poll, due to the Lab share of the vote falling and the Tory share of the vote rising.
Last night we only saw the former, and not the latter.
It is 'loath' not 'loathed'.
If he keeps on about the double digit Tory leads it may very well become both?
There are quite a few people in my age group, on the left who don't actually rate Corbyn as a leader. But, given that on Twitter (and in real life) you'll be shouted down as a Tory and a Blairite for not agreeing with everything Corbyn says and does, its best to stop debating with these people and leave them to their own devices.
The centre left, hoist by their own petard. After years of them 'othering' Tories, the piquancy of the same happening to them is too delicious to resist.
There are lots of working class people who aren't stereotypical lefties, but see the Tories as 'other'. The Tories did it to themselves.
Just so. The idea that sturdy, working folk have been browbeaten and propagandised by lefties into despising the Tories seems somewhat against the current zeitgeist that these folk shouldn't be patronised and underestimated. Of course, this new found consideration for the lower orders will be discarded toot sweet at the drop of a hat by the current crop of carpetbaggers.
I don't get the impression they feel they've been browbeaten and propagandised but ignored altogether. Which may be worse. You don't bother browbeating people you don't care about.
Sure, I was just really replying to the somewhat self pitying refrain that recurs on here that the reason for persistent Tory unpopularity (particularly in Scotland) is their portrayal by Labour as the very spawn of Satan. Ironically SLab's current travails owe a lot to their enthusiastic collaboration (no Godwinism intended) with the Tories during the Indy campaign. If poorer Scots wanted confirmation that Labour didn't care about them, what better way to have it confirmed than by seeing them work with a party that they KNEW didn't care about them.
Nothing would have happened anyway. They were out of order making the call, and it gave the end of the final race of the season the drama it needed to make Abu Dhabi's spending worthwhile - if the last race of the season still costs more, that is.
He was winning the race at his own pace, as the leader usually does. Given that any action or lack of it makes no difference to the team next year with a different team mate, I guess Niki will deal with it over a beer or two - and the team will let them race each other next time!
There are quite a few people in my age group, on the left who don't actually rate Corbyn as a leader. But, given that on Twitter (and in real life) you'll be shouted down as a Tory and a Blairite for not agreeing with everything Corbyn says and does, its best to stop debating with these people and leave them to their own devices.
The centre left, hoist by their own petard. After years of them 'othering' Tories, the piquancy of the same happening to them is too delicious to resist.
There are lots of working class people who aren't stereotypical lefties, but see the Tories as 'other'. The Tories did it to themselves.
Just so. The idea that sturdy, working folk have been browbeaten and propagandised by lefties into despising the Tories seems somewhat against the current zeitgeist that these folk shouldn't be patronised and underestimated. Of course, this new found consideration for the lower orders will be discarded toot sweet at the drop of a hat by the current crop of carpetbaggers.
I don't get the impression they feel they've been browbeaten and propagandised but ignored altogether. Which may be worse. You don't bother browbeating people you don't care about.
Sure, I was just really replying to the somewhat self pitying refrain that recurs on here that the reason for persistent Tory unpopularity (particularly in Scotland) is their portrayal by Labour as the very spawn of Satan. Ironically SLab's current travails owe a lot to their enthusiastic collaboration (no Godwinism intended) with the Tories during the Indy campaign. If poorer Scots wanted confirmation that Labour didn't care about them, what better way to have it confirmed than by seeing them work with a party that they KNEW didn't care about them.
The other half of that equation being the polarisation that led unionists back to the Tories, because neither Labour nor LibDems (both the parties of devolution) can be as unionist as the Tories.
In a post-Brexit context, the LibDem position is in some ways more analogous to the Scottish Tories than (despite what they might hope) the SNP's, with Labour's position being rather unfortunately analogous to Scottish Labour's.
Age and Peak Achievement very much depend on the field of endeavour. Clearly athletes tend to peak in their 20s; but so do mathematicians. Girl gymnasts peak even younger - in their teens.
I think e-sports (professional computer game) players also peak in their late teens, as reflexes tend to peak around 17 or 18.
Agree, and despite all the Brexit narrative suggest this is a key extract:
"This is not really about Brexit. The referendum and its aftermath have accelerated changes that were happening anyway: Labour’s long decline since the mid-1990s, the estrangement of its old working-class base, and the fact that it is increasingly a party rooted in big cities."
Like the Democrats their vote is becoming dangerously inefficent since there are hardly any marginals outside London in the big cities. It's just that as usual America crystalises things more clearly in a in yer face kinda way.
"“The challenge for us was because of Brexit. Everything was about Brexit. The messages about the A&E, the NHS, the messages about infrastructure, all of that got lost to an extent in the swirl around Brexit.” Replace the word Brexit with Scottish independence and you can see the extent of Labour's upcoming problems.
After Richmond the LibDems owe the greens a big favour, and my advice would be to keep an eye on Bristol and Norwich.
Not sure that Bristol LDs and Greens are soul mates at local level.
The Greens are a busted flush in Norwich South with regard to parliamentary elections.
I would've thought that the main role of Green voters in Norwich South is now to defect to Labour and stop Clive Lewis being ejected by the Tories - especially if the next election takes place on schedule and is fought on the revised boundaries.
I doubt that. Even on the revised boundaries the Tories would need a 15% lead in 2020 to win the seat. Moreover that fails to take account of a likely first term incumbency bonus for Lewis.
The only positive for Labour in this by election result is the failure of UKIP to gain traction at all. Coming second is meaningless when the party concerned is losing vote share . Far better to have come third with 20% of the vote than second on 13.5%. Other than the Tories UKIP had more invested in this campaign, and the outcome has been a very damp squib for them. That should give Labour some solace re- defending Northern heartlands.
I share your scepticism about how high Ukip can push its ceiling of support, but we stand to be proven wrong by events. The SNP were a loud yet marginal force for decades, until circumstances changed. Then they weren't marginal anymore.
It should also be added that both Ukip and the Lib Dems only need to erode Labour's vote more than that of the Tories to allow the latter to start winning more Con/Lab marginal seats. Of course, if Nuttall can do better than that, turn his party into a vehicle for English nationalism and knock out a couple of dozen Labour MPs in the North, then Labour is probably finished as a leading party of Government.
I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.
In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.
But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."
Comments
Edit/ and recall that the BNP (etc.) too only posed any threat in safe Labour areas such as Barking, Stoke, as we see UKIp shift away from its roots in the saloon bars of the Home Counties
In a post-Brexit context, the LibDem position is in some ways more analogous to the Scottish Tories than (despite what they might hope) the SNP's, with Labour's position being rather unfortunately analogous to Scottish Labour's.
Scottish SubSample
Con: 26
Lab: 12
Passes without comment, these days.....(SNP 50 for completeness...)
"“The challenge for us was because of Brexit. Everything was about Brexit. The messages about the A&E, the NHS, the messages about infrastructure, all of that got lost to an extent in the swirl around Brexit.”
Replace the word Brexit with Scottish independence and you can see the extent of Labour's upcoming problems.
But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776