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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Positives for CON, UKIP and the LDs in Sleaford & Hykehem N but another bad by-election for LAB

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TheScreamingEagles

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

dr_spyn

No change in Government majority in Commons.

Jonathan

More MSM bias.

TonyE

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

It's a by election- the whole vote was down, as it always is. Your attempt to read anything particular into that is rather puzzling.

Casino_Royale

Lib Dem surge.

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. Eagles, that sounds a bit like the Assisted Places scheme that used to happen but which (I think) Labour abolished early on in their last period in office.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Eagles, that sounds a bit like the Assisted Places scheme that used to happen but which (I think) Labour abolished early on in their last period in office.

It does. I wonder if the Grammar school fans will support it.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls

Alternatively:

@MattSingh: Tory vote share down just 2.7 points. Last time they did better than that while in gov't was at Beaconsfield in 1982 (during Falklands war)

So during all Dave's PM by-elections, they did worse......

Casino_Royale

Strange. David Cameron is watching basketball with George W Bush. And he still looks like Prime Minister, which I assume is from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/806877247051354113

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

I'm pointing out that the by election results are not consistent with polls showing the Tories 16% ahead.

philiph

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

TheWhiteRabbit

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls

Alternatively:

@MattSingh: Tory vote share down just 2.7 points. Last time they did better than that while in gov't was at Beaconsfield in 1982 (during Falklands war)

So during all Dave's PM by-elections, they did worse......

DNFTT

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

It's hilariously transparent...I fear TSE is TINO.......(unless the posh boys run it....)

dr_spyn

Casino_Royale said:

Strange. David Cameron is watching basketball with George W Bush. And he still looks like Prime Minister, which I assume is from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/806877247051354113

Has Nicky Morgan popped up to criticise the cost of his suit?


“If we don’t address the concerns of those economically left behind, we open up our politics to the parties of the extreme left,” he said. And if we don’t address the concerns of those left culturally behind, we open up to the parties of the extreme right.”

Begs the question why did David Cameron walk off the political stage to avoid addressing these concerns.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/economic-affairs/news/81574/david-cameron-rise-populism-cost-me-my-job

Perhaps Cameron is hoping May fouls up and he could return at some point.

CarlottaVance

dr_spyn said:

No change in Government majority in Commons.

A disaster for May, obvs.......PM Osborne would have increased it!

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

I'm pointing out that the by election results are not consistent with polls showing the Tories 16% ahead.

They never are. It is very unusual for a governing party to put on support in a by election.

But, if there were an election today, the Tories would be looking at 350+ seats.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

I'm pointing out that the by election results are not consistent with polls showing the Tories 16% ahead.

This probably does actually. May should have run a soft-Brexit candidate in Richmond. I think she would have won through the middle now.

CD13

Mr Eagles,

A December bye-election where the result was already certain. A posher version of Boston without the same Leave enthusiasm.

No wonder it lacked interest.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls

Alternatively:

@MattSingh: Tory vote share down just 2.7 points. Last time they did better than that while in gov't was at Beaconsfield in 1982 (during Falklands war)

So during all Dave's PM by-elections, they did worse......

Reckon she'll gain as many Tory MPs as Dave did ?

198: The number of Tory MPs when Dave became leader

331: The number of Tory MPs when Dave's tenure as leader ended

dr_spyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Eagles, that sounds a bit like the Assisted Places scheme that used to happen but which (I think) Labour abolished early on in their last period in office.

It does. I wonder if the Grammar school fans will support it.

Look at the private schools which took part in the Direct Grant Schemes, most were day schools few were boarding schools like Eton.

TonyE

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls

Alternatively:

@MattSingh: Tory vote share down just 2.7 points. Last time they did better than that while in gov't was at Beaconsfield in 1982 (during Falklands war)

So during all Dave's PM by-elections, they did worse......

Reckon she'll gain as many Tory MPs as Dave did ?

198: The number of Tory MPs when Dave became leader

331: The number of Tory MPs when Dave's tenure as leader ended

Come on TSE, what's really eating you? You know you cannot compare the two on this basis, what is the the real issue?

CarlottaVance

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Jonathan

It is possible to read too much into a December by-election in a safe seat. Nevertheless Labour should have been aiming for a solid second. Fourth is not ok.

Blue_rog

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls

Alternatively:

@MattSingh: Tory vote share down just 2.7 points. Last time they did better than that while in gov't was at Beaconsfield in 1982 (during Falklands war)

So during all Dave's PM by-elections, they did worse......

Reckon she'll gain as many Tory MPs as Dave did ?

198: The number of Tory MPs when Dave became leader

331: The number of Tory MPs when Dave's tenure as leader ended

The number of Tory MPs could go down, if the boundary changes go through

Norm

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Safe seat by election.

Your hostility to the PM is affecting your analysis, and not for the better

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/807155445693607936

SandyRentool

I like the graph - a TERRRRRIBLE night for the Conservatives!

Seriously, if all Labour can say is that we are been squeezed between the party of Leave and the party of Remain, it suggest we have learnt nothing from our Scottish wipe-out. We could get a total hammering in next May's locals. Hopefully by 2020, with Brexit a done deal, voters will refocus on other issues.

ShropshireLadd

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

williamglenn

SandyRentool said:

I like the graph - a TERRRRRIBLE night for the Conservatives!

Seriously, if all Labour can say is that we are been squeezed between the party of Leave and the party of Remain, it suggest we have learnt nothing from our Scottish wipe-out. We could get a total hammering in next May's locals. Hopefully by 2020, with Brexit a done deal, voters will refocus on other issues.

The situation is potentially worse than Scotland. This time the squeeze is still happening despite the referendum going against the status quo, and it's hitting Labour from both sides so there's nowhere to hide. Labour will get fewer seats than Hague in 2001. Maybe a lot fewer.

TheScreamingEagles

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

rcs1000

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

Pulpstar

Good result:
8/10 Tories. Derisory turnout and losing plenty of votes prevents a 9 or 10.
7/10 Lib Dems. Gained votes in a difficult area with a poor turnout..

Middling result
5/10 UKIP. No inroads made to the Tories, not that great a result in all honesty.

Poor result
2/10 Labour. Not as bad a vote share as some had forecast.

ShropshireLadd

TheScreamingEagles said:

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

If only he had taken Telford out of Shropshire :-)

NickPalmer

A bit meh all round IMO. OK result for Tories in second year of Parliament but vote share down a bit. Not good for UKIP, vote share down in a strong Leave here. OK for LDs but sugests little post-Richmond bump. Not good for Labour but avoiding the embarassmrent of early predictions (losing deposit, coming 5th). It basically turned into the question of who could get postal votes out best, and the Tories were clearly best at that.

Incidentally, the vote column of the header is format as if it were %s (two significant places) and the last column on votes is cut off.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Do you get paid to spin for George Osborne, or do you just do it for free?

I'm pointing out that the by election results are not consistent with polls showing the Tories 16% ahead.

This one is.

Richard_Nabavi

Not much to see here, really. The Conservatives will be pleased that their vote share remained almost unchanged, a good result in a by-election when in government, but against weak opposition in a safe seat it doesn't signify very much. UKIP should have done better given that this is a by-election, but it's an OK result for them as far as it goes. The LibDems recovered quite well from their 2015 nadir, but not sufficiently well to signify any kind of breakthrough. Labour did poorly, but that's not too unusual in by-election in a safe Conservative seat, especially given that the non-Conservative vote was split fairly evenly four ways.

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

Boro is, and always will be, A Small Town in Yorkshire!

Interestingly, Barnoldswick, which was also re-countied in 1974, still has a Yorkshire flag flying proudly in the town centre.

Tissue_Price

NickPalmer said:

A bit meh all round IMO. OK result for Tories in second year of Parliament but vote share down a bit. Not good for UKIP, vote share down in a strong Leave here. OK for LDs but sugests little post-Richmond bump. Not good for Labour but avoiding the embarassmrent of early predictions (losing deposit, coming 5th). It basically turned into the question of who could get postal votes out best, and the Tories were clearly best at that.

Incidentally, the vote column of the header is format as if it were %s (two significant places) and the last column on votes is cut off.

It's a superb result for the Tories (understandably, given Brexit) and a diabolical one for Labour (understandably, given Brexit & Corbyn).

rcs1000

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

I was going to make a comment about distance from Portland Place... You are surely right.

ShropshireLadd

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

I thought all the media actually lived in Richmond these days

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

MarqueeMark

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

But their numbers are being topped up as the population ages.... Death is not enough to save Labour..

[Deleted User]

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

Charles

ShropshireLadd said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

I thought all the media actually lived in Richmond these days

Sure, but they expense the price of a tube ticket anyway

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

Given the current 'investigations' around him, you sure about that?

surbiton

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

surbiton

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

Given the current 'investigations' around him, you sure about that?

And, past aborted "investigations".

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

Good result:
8/10 Tories. Derisory turnout and losing plenty of votes prevents a 9 or 10.
7/10 Lib Dems. Gained votes in a difficult area with a poor turnout..

Middling result
5/10 UKIP. No inroads made to the Tories, not that great a result in all honesty.

Poor result
2/10 Labour. Not as bad a vote share as some had forecast.

LibDems only found an extra 106 voters willing to put their heads above the parapet since 2015.... Real winner was the Can't Be Arsed Party. December is a particularly good month for them.

Tissue_Price

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

surbiton

Patrick said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

People get more selfish as they get older !

surbiton

ShropshireLadd said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

I thought all the media actually lived in Richmond these days

No, they couldn't afford it !

williamglenn

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

Sounds like a good move to be more in tune with the voters. How did he do again?

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

An average 65 year old female has two decades ahead of her......a chap around two years less.....so she'll still be voting in 2030......and a good number in 2035......

surbiton

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

Who TF is talking about the Labour candidate ? The LD candidate was pro REMAIN. They are now the talk of the town.

rcs1000

ShropshireLadd said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

I thought all the media actually lived in Richmond these days

The media can't afford to live in Richmond. You'd be hard pressed to find a three bedroom semi below £1.5m there.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

bearing in mind the number of postal votes, maybe 1/6 of the electorate bothered to vote on the day. Apathy rules OK!

rottenborough

Shocking performance by Bus Pass Elvis. Last. Is it the end for the party?

SouthamObserver

Have we done the PISA results for 2015?

http://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-2015-United-Kingdom.pdf

SandyRentool

williamglenn said:

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

Sounds like a good move to be more in tune with the voters. How did he do again?

Momentum will blame the mass resignation of the Shad Cab in the summer for Labour's poor performance.

Maybe if we had fielded a PPE latte-sipper parachuted in from Islington we would have done better. (He says, while drinking a latte!)

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

Shocking performance by Bus Pass Elvis. Last. Is it the end for the party?

A victory for the Militant Elvis Anti-Tesco Popular Front wing of the party...

Roger

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

Perhaps they weren't too happy about changing their Audis BMWs and Porsches for second hand Camels

MarkSenior

surbiton said:

Patrick said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

People get more selfish as they get older !

and sadly more suffer from dementia and Alzheimers symptoms of which may include a tendency to vote Conservative and UKIP

YellowSubmarine

It's an astonishingly good result for the Conservatives. An unnecessary by-election caused by a sitting MP resigning in a huff over 6 years into a government. A tiny drop in vote share and a swing away from the principal opposition party. And the opposition vote didn't coalesce behind a single challenger . Voters know how to use By-elections and FPTP when they are angry. They weren't angry.

I still think we're in the Brown Bounce stage of May's premiership never the less the hard data from this byelection is very impressive from the Tories.

Tissue_Price

williamglenn said:

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

Sounds like a good move to be more in tune with the voters. How did he do again?

He was outflanked by people who actually believed in it.
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/807153917855494144

foxinsoxuk

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Eagles, that sounds a bit like the Assisted Places scheme that used to happen but which (I think) Labour abolished early on in their last period in office.

It does. I wonder if the Grammar school fans will support it.

Look at the private schools which took part in the Direct Grant Schemes, most were day schools few were boarding schools like Eton.

On the subject of poor kids at schools:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/38251413&ved=0ahUKEwiDk5_37ubQAhXFWCwKHT37CZoQqUMIZTAE&usg=AFQjCNEmYGq_yow64vfOOpxeonICJJK0VQ&sig2=YTAoZTPKLWlEVRPZSLFWZQ

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

The LD candidate was pro REMAIN. They are now the talk of the town.

On 11% of the votes?

The denial is strong in this one.......

AlastairMeeks

YellowSubmarine said:

It's an astonishingly good result for the Conservatives. An unnecessary by-election caused by a sitting MP resigning in a huff over 6 years into a government. A tiny drop in vote share and a swing away from the principal opposition party. And the opposition vote didn't coalesce behind a single challenger . Voters know how to use By-elections and FPTP when they are angry. They weren't angry.

I still think we're in the Brown Bounce stage of May's premiership never the less the hard data from this byelection is very impressive from the Tories.

The contrast between this by-election and Witney and Richmond Park is very striking. The Leave shires are happy. The prosperous south is potentially more mutinous.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Borough, some say Labour can't go on together, with suspicious minds.

TCPoliticalBetting

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ShropshireLadd said:

TSE, you are beginning to sound like Ted Heath.

Ted Heath was the finest PM we've ever had.

He took Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire. No finer achievement.

Given the current 'investigations' around him, you sure about that?

TSE has very poor taste in Conservative Leaders.

rottenborough

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, some say Labour can't go on together, with suspicious minds.

TCPoliticalBetting

NickPalmer said:

A bit meh all round IMO. OK result for Tories in second year of Parliament but vote share down a bit. Not good for UKIP, vote share down in a strong Leave here. OK for LDs but sugests little post-Richmond bump. Not good for Labour but avoiding the embarassmrent of early predictions (losing deposit, coming 5th). It basically turned into the question of who could get postal votes out best, and the Tories were clearly best at that.

Incidentally, the vote column of the header is format as if it were %s (two significant places) and the last column on votes is cut off.

I am comfortable that influential Labour people such as yourself regard the Labour performance at recent by elections as of little relevance.

david_herdson

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).

Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.

The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that

1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or
2. They haven't decided what it means.

Or that there isn't anything interesting to say about it. A safe Tory seat was retained easily and the other insignificant parties jockeyed slightly for third and fourth place. Even the BBC who normally reckon to report seriously on political results have the by-election well down their bulletin board.

But there is quite a bit of interest to say about it.

It was the best Tory by-election performance while in govt since 1989, 1982 or 1971 depending on your metric (respectively: most votes, biggest share, biggest majority/%age lead). That of itself has to be significant.

Other points to note:

- Labour going backwards having started second.
- Lib Dem recovery continues (though nothing like on the same strength as Witney, which is more comparable than Richmond Park).
- UKIP fail to make serious inroads into the substantial Leave vote - and notable that Nuttall was talking more about challenging Labour, during the radio interview I heard earlier.

But the big story is the top-line: a huge Con win. Unfortunately, this doesn't gel with the Richmond result or with the internal Con divisions over Europe. Is that as much about collective opposition weakness as Con strength? Probably. I suspect that a Miliband-led Labour would be ahead in the polls right now. But that of itself tells a story.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Meeks, by chance, I'm reading the early part of Livy's Rome and Italy. There's discord between the patricians and plebeians which is tearing politics apart.

I'll let you know how it ends

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Have we done the PISA results for 2015?

http://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-2015-United-Kingdom.pdf

Scotland & Wales dragging the UK down?

YellowSubmarine

Compare and contrast the demographics who'll else their/most jobs with the Leave demographics.

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/dec/09/amazon-go-means-more-than-just-job-losses-it-will-restructure-the-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

It's an astonishingly good result for the Conservatives. An unnecessary by-election caused by a sitting MP resigning in a huff over 6 years into a government. A tiny drop in vote share and a swing away from the principal opposition party. And the opposition vote didn't coalesce behind a single challenger . Voters know how to use By-elections and FPTP when they are angry. They weren't angry.

I still think we're in the Brown Bounce stage of May's premiership never the less the hard data from this byelection is very impressive from the Tories.

The contrast between this by-election and Witney and Richmond Park is very striking. The Leave shires are happy. The prosperous south is potentially more mutinous.

It's a case of Je ne bregret rien so far in the Leave shires.

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

The contrast between this by-election and Witney and Richmond Park is very striking. The Leave shires are happy. The prosperous south is potentially more mutinous.

That might be over-egging the logical pudding. Richmond Park was not a straightforward contest; Zac was standing as an independent and had annoyed some people with what may have been seen as a vanity by-election. Plus it was a former LibDem stronghold, the LibDems threw the kitchen sink at it, and it was clear that the non-Zac vote should coalesce around them.

kle4

Jonathan said:

It is possible to read too much into a December by-election in a safe seat. Nevertheless Labour should have been aiming for a solid second. Fourth is not ok.

Impossible to read too much into a by-election. Next thing you'll be saying you can read too much into subsamples!

MaxPB

MarkSenior said:

surbiton said:

Patrick said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

People get more selfish as they get older !

and sadly more suffer from dementia and Alzheimers symptoms of which may include a tendency to vote Conservative and UKIP

If you ever get these awful problems I'll look back and think of this moment. There will be no pity, only a sense of justice. Dickhead.

SandyRentool

Mr Herdson - which Miliband?

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Good result:
8/10 Tories. Derisory turnout and losing plenty of votes prevents a 9 or 10.
7/10 Lib Dems. Gained votes in a difficult area with a poor turnout..

Middling result
5/10 UKIP. No inroads made to the Tories, not that great a result in all honesty.

Poor result
2/10 Labour. Not as bad a vote share as some had forecast.

LibDems only found an extra 106 voters willing to put their heads above the parapet since 2015.... Real winner was the Can't Be Arsed Party. December is a particularly good month for them.

But as we're told when turnout is down you expect numbers to be down even if you maintain your percentage. Increasing real votes even when turnout is down is surely a good result at a by-election, albeit it was from a low position.

YellowSubmarine

Will the next referendum be on Robots ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/08/capita-to-replace-staff-with-robots-to-save-money?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Tissue_Price

surbiton said:

Tissue_Price said:

surbiton said:

Clearly a big swing from LEAVE to REMAIN.

The Labour candidate supported Brexit, having supported Remain. So, no.

Who TF is talking about the Labour candidate ? The LD candidate was pro REMAIN. They are now the talk of the town.

You must have been if you thought there was a swing from Leave to Remain.

rottenborough

YellowSubmarine said:

Compare and contrast the demographics who'll else their/most jobs with the Leave demographics.

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/dec/09/amazon-go-means-more-than-just-job-losses-it-will-restructure-the-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

V. interesting, although this has been coming for years. Back in 2007 I visited a mock-up shop in Germany which had the same type of technology, installed as a trial by, I think, SAP. The German system was using RFID tags, which at the time were individually too expensive to place on food stuff like beans which only cost 50p themselves. Looks like Amazon have done it another way, although not quite clear from article.

GeoffM

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

Really? You post like a 16 year old.

YellowSubmarine

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, by chance, I'm reading the early part of Livy's Rome and Italy. There's discord between the patricians and plebeians which is tearing politics apart.

I'll let you know how it ends

I'm 14% through your new book. It's not what I expected.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The contrast between this by-election and Witney and Richmond Park is very striking. The Leave shires are happy. The prosperous south is potentially more mutinous.

That might be over-egging the logical pudding. Richmond Park was not a straightforward contest; Zac was standing as an independent and had annoyed some people with what may have been seen as a vanity by-election. Plus it was a former LibDem stronghold, the LibDems threw the kitchen sink at it, and it was clear that the non-Zac vote should coalesce around them.

Sleaford was an optional by-election too. But the barometer didn't move when tapped. The other two showed 20% swings to the Lib Dems (and I'm not accepting that Zac Goldsmith was an independent; he had abundant numbers of Conservative MPs treading the streets for him). And you haven't explained the big swing in Witney.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

It's an astonishingly good result for the Conservatives. An unnecessary by-election caused by a sitting MP resigning in a huff over 6 years into a government. A tiny drop in vote share and a swing away from the principal opposition party. And the opposition vote didn't coalesce behind a single challenger . Voters know how to use By-elections and FPTP when they are angry. They weren't angry.

I still think we're in the Brown Bounce stage of May's premiership never the less the hard data from this byelection is very impressive from the Tories.

The contrast between this by-election and Witney and Richmond Park is very striking. The Leave shires are happy. The prosperous south is potentially more mutinous.

It's a case of Je ne bregret rien so far in the Leave shires.

If the Leave shires are content with 6 months of prevaricating on Brexit and don't take the opportunity to vote UKIP to 'send a message', the real lesson might be that Theresa May doesn't need to worry about what kind of Brexit she gives them.

OldKingCole

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).

Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.

The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that

1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or
2. They haven't decided what it means.

Or that there isn't anything interesting to say about it. A safe Tory seat was retained easily and the other insignificant parties jockeyed slightly for third and fourth place. Even the BBC who normally reckon to report seriously on political results have the by-election well down their bulletin board.

But there is quite a bit of interest to say about it.

It was the best Tory by-election performance while in govt since 1989, 1982 or 1971 depending on your metric (respectively: most votes, biggest share, biggest majority/%age lead). That of itself has to be significant.

Other points to note:

- Labour going backwards having started second.
- Lib Dem recovery continues (though nothing like on the same strength as Witney, which is more comparable than Richmond Park).
- UKIP fail to make serious inroads into the substantial Leave vote - and notable that Nuttall was talking more about challenging Labour, during the radio interview I heard earlier.

But the big story is the top-line: a huge Con win. Unfortunately, this doesn't gel with the Richmond result or with the internal Con divisions over Europe. Is that as much about collective opposition weakness as Con strength? Probably. I suspect that a Miliband-led Labour would be ahead in the polls right now. But that of itself tells a story.

Tory candidate was local, too, and fougfht a neighbouring seat in the GE, so would have been in the local press. Makes a difference, especially when they are in a reasonably well trusted profession. He husband is described in the Telegraph as a local farmer and businessman.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Senior, that's an uncalled for remark. Alzheimer's affects a huge number of people, both directly and those who care for them, and is a horrendous disease.

felix

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

But their numbers are being topped up as the population ages.... Death is not enough to save Labour..

It never ceases to amaze me that otherwise moderately intelligent people seem to believe that the age benefit for the Tories is temporary as the old die out more quickly.

CarlottaVance

From the PISA results:

The share of immigrant students in OECD countries increased from 9% in 2006 to 12% in 2015...

• In the United Kingdom, the proportion of students with an immigrant background increased from 9% in 2006 to 17% in 2015

So the OECD share of immigrant students increased by 33% - in the UK it nearly doubled.....

kle4

GeoffM said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

Really? You post like a 16 year old.

I think it would be amusing to compare peoples' perceived ages with their actual ages. For instance I tend to equate poshness with older, patrician types, so anyone who seems posh I mentally picture in their 60s, generally.

FF43

I think there's a mini story developing in the by-elections, including the council ones. Safe Tory seats are staying solid. There's no trend. Presumably Conservative voters are happy both with Brexit and their party's handling of it. The situation in marginals is very fluid however. Labour doing well in some seats and not others. Ditto Lib Dems and UKIP.

HurstLlama

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Norm said:

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another by election on Mrs May's watch where the Tory share of the vote falls.

Just look at how many Tory voters who stayed at home in the second chart.

No, they were out working to increase the GDP this quarter.

The turnout is derisory, and makes any real conclusions impossible to draw. However, in any circumstances the Tory party in power getting 50% + can be represented as a good result.

Amazing lack of media brouhaha over this result compared to metropolitan Richmond I wonder why that is lol. And after 3 by-elections in Tory seats we are left with two MPs supporting a clean Brexit and one apparently easily tongue tied LD referendum denier compared to one self regarding maverick, one remain inclined ex PM and an MP apparently suffering some sort of crisis of conscience. I'm not sure Mrs May is going to be particularly unhappy as she looks back at the overall outcome.

There has been no media brouhaha because Conservatives hold safe seat is not a story.

There would (similarly) be no story if Alistair Carmichael had a heart attack and the LDs were defending Orkney & Shetland. Or if it was a safe Labour seat held comfortably.

Things changing, or potentially changing, sell newspapers (or pageviews). Things not expected to change, and then not changing, do not.

Nah. Much simpler.

Newspaper budgets don't stretch to a train ticket that far north these days. Oxfordshire they do on their own time at weekends, and Richmond is just a tube ride.

The news papers must be in dire financial straights if that is the case.

I have a mate who lives in North Hyekham who I visit regularly. A first class, booked in advance, ticket from Hassocks to Newark (15 minute taxi ride away) costs me £42.80 each way, with free booze and lunch thrown in.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

MarkSenior said:

surbiton said:

Patrick said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

People get more selfish as they get older !

and sadly more suffer from dementia and Alzheimers symptoms of which may include a tendency to vote Conservative and UKIP

You're full of seasonal good will this morning.

felix

MarkSenior said:

surbiton said:

Patrick said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

@MJGoodwin: I suppose obsessing over possible clues in by-elections distracts from the FIFTY SEVEN pt favourability gap in Corbyn v May among over-65s!

Some of them will be dead before the next election. I am 61.

...and some in the 60-65 cohort will join the 65+ cohort...remember the facts of life are conservative and people get wiser as they get older...

People get more selfish as they get older !

and sadly more suffer from dementia and Alzheimers symptoms of which may include a tendency to vote Conservative and UKIP

oooh - the nasty side of the LD comes out when they lose.