politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the moment (0043 GMT) punters think that the LDs will win
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If it's 58-39 it is.RobD said:
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.0 -
If UKIP is targetting Labour voters a coalition with the Tories would be a killer.Dadge said:
1. T May sees this scenario. That's why, despite her personal views, she says Brexit Means Brexit. The Tory party won't stop Brexit (because to do otherwise would be suicidal) and if Brexit goes to a parliamentary vote, any wavering Tory MP will be given chinese burns until they see sense.GIN1138 said:
The hope will be that UKIP ends up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament leading to a Con/Kipper government.Speedy said:
That's the danger for the Tories.GIN1138 said:
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.Speedy said:
There wont be even a Brexit.SeanT said:It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long.
That looks like the only way Brexit will happen.
This was my view before Zac immolated himself though. I think his daft vanity election is neither here nor there...
2. If T May does not secure Brexit before 2020, it seems unlikely (but not impossible) that Ukip will go into the election on the basis that they will form a coalition with the Tories after the election. And the Tories won't want to have such a coalition either. If a Con-Ukip coalition were somehow to happen, it'd be hilarious.
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The fact is the vast majority of Richmond Park voters would prefer to still see David Cameron in Downing Street rather than Theresa May. That's probably one of the reasons for this result. They're the sort of voters who are used to always getting their own way and are probably annoyed at the way things have gone recently. Between 1997 and 2016 nearly everything that happened was in accordance with their preferences and tastes.0
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Wow, are those the rumoured numbers?? A superb result for the LD if so!Speedy said:
If it's 58-39 it is.RobD said:
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.0 -
We haven't actually had an announcement yet, have we. Sky's saying its a LD gain, but BBC is saying nothing
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Richmond obviously not typical of UK, not indicative of UK opinion on Brexit, BUT what is more important is that it shows tory vote softer than than thought, and that alone may affect May's thinking on brexit (i.e inch towards soft brexit)0
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What nonsense , Chichester voted narrowly Leave and still saw a 24% swing from Con to Lib Dem today .AndyJS said:
No comment on any of that, but this result once again drives a wedge between London and the rest of the country. It brilliantly showcases the growing divide between the capital and everywhere else. Pro-Brexit candidates are likely to get as much as 70% of the vote in the Sleaford by-election next week, for example.SouthamObserver said:This is not just about the EU. Goldsmith's vile, racist campaign against Sadiq Khan could also be coming back to bite him. Here's hoping.
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LOL! We're all waiting for the fool Zac to show his face...0
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Wow i'm so out of touch when it comes to the people of Richmond Park.0
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Not sympathetic towards anti-Heathrow, anti-noise and anti-pollution voters in Richmond when per capita they probably generate more air miles and car fumes per head than most of the rest of the country.SouthamObserver said:
We all virtue signal. It's just that we want to be associated with different virtues.old_labour said:
It does not do much for house prices if an area is perceived as racist. Cost free virtue signalling from the voters of Richmond.SouthamObserver said:This is not just about the EU. Goldsmith's vile, racist campaign against Sadiq Khan could also be coming back to bite him. Here's hoping.
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Logically the Tories should probably go even harder Brexit after this result, "Leave" won over 400 seats at the GE !
Can afford to give up 30 to the Lib Dems with those potential numbers.0 -
The guy on the BBC reported some minutes ago that LDs were telling him they've won.OldKingCole said:We haven't actually had an announcement yet, have we. Sky's saying its a LD gain, but BBC is saying nothing
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Neil just said it was looking like a LD gain. Sounded pretty convinced too.OldKingCole said:We haven't actually had an announcement yet, have we. Sky's saying its a LD gain, but BBC is saying nothing
Here's the loser!0 -
Here we go!0
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Regardless of the legal, at that point it would be a fait accompli.RobD said:
Still think it was the right decision. After all, they would still be in the midst of a legal challenge regarding if the declaration was valid.Speedy said:
They had 2 years once it was declared.RobD said:
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.Speedy said:
That's the danger for the Tories.GIN1138 said:
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.Speedy said:
There wont be even a Brexit.SeanT said:It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that.
It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
Going to court to argue that May should not have declared sans Parliament is qualitatively different to going to court to argue that May cannot declare sans Parliament0 -
Expectation management still needs some work then !!!!RobD said:
Wow, are those the rumoured numbers?? A superb result for the LD if so!Speedy said:
If it's 58-39 it is.RobD said:
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.0 -
Goldsmith looking sad!0
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Suddenly we are in hung parliament territory again for the next GE.RobD said:
Wow, are those the rumoured numbers?? A superb result for the LD if so!Speedy said:
If it's 58-39 it is.RobD said:
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.0 -
Yeah. The reporter at the Richmond count was just telling Neil and the others that LDs sources are saying they've got this.RobD said:
Neil just said it was looking like a LD gain. Sounded pretty convinced too.OldKingCole said:We haven't actually had an announcement yet, have we. Sky's saying its a LD gain, but BBC is saying nothing
Here's the loser!0 -
Does this mean the people of Richmond park want Heathrow expansion.0
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Discard the national polls
Lebo-Norpeth.0 -
The ground game certainly doesn'tMarkSenior said:
Expectation management still needs some work then !!!!RobD said:
Wow, are those the rumoured numbers?? A superb result for the LD if so!Speedy said:
If it's 58-39 it is.RobD said:
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.
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"ASHEN FACE" ZAC GOLDSMITH
BINGO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
"OUT! OUT! OUT!"GIN1138 said:LOL! We're all waiting for the fool Zac to show his face...
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Only in that the government would have fallen immediately if they had been shown to have acted illegally.viewcode said:
Regardless of the legal, at that point it would be a fait accompli.RobD said:
Still think it was the right decision. After all, they would still be in the midst of a legal challenge regarding if the declaration was valid.Speedy said:
They had 2 years once it was declared.RobD said:
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.Speedy said:
That's the danger for the Tories.GIN1138 said:
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.Speedy said:
There wont be even a Brexit.SeanT said:It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that.
It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
Going to court to argue that May should not have declared sans Parliament is qualitatively different to going to court to argue that May cannot declare sans Parliament0 -
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Goldsmith 18,6380
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Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir
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LD 20,502
Goldsmith 18,638
Lab 1,515
Loony 184
CPA 164
LD maj 1,8640 -
LibDems WINNING HERE!0
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she's done it!0
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LibDems win by about 19000
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Zac+Wolmar = less than Olney!0
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OK not a LD landslide (naughty speedy!).. still, a great result for them for overturning such a large majority.0
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Zac Goldsmith's face LOL0
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LD majority bigger than Labour vote0
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Yeeeah!!! Had a pretty horrible evening, another Hospital visit, so this is a wonderful distraction to be back to.0
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Labour lost deposit - must be quite a while since the last one in a by election?0
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Biggest own goal in the history of British politics.0
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Zac looks ill...0
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The first election result in 2016 to make me smile.0
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LibDems won by 2000.0
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Goldsmith lost 46% of his 2015 votes.0
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Nice of Zac to give remain voters a hint of a recall. Another promise (almost) kept.0
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Zac Goldsmith literally looks like he thinking 'shit, what have I done.'0
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Is the boundary review vote now safe for the Tories ?0
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May, May , May. Out, out, out !!! May out !Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Look on the bright side - at least the fool can't resign his Commons seat a second time now.0
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Low energy Zac
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They didn't lose any in the 2010-2015 Parliament.IanB2 said:Labour lost deposit - must be quite a while since the last one in a by election?
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Whatever Zac is loaded, good looking and connected.
Will grab 'em by the pussy.0 -
No that was Dave and EUref. He is no longer a PM or an MP!AndyJS said:Biggest own goal in the history of British politics.
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Tony Blair lost his the first time he stood.IanB2 said:Labour lost deposit - must be quite a while since the last one in a by election?
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"Wanted to vote Labour" 0
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Zac Goldsmith seems to have gone grey over the course of the by-election campaign.0
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Loser!0
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''Labour remains the party of hope....'' NO!0
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Wolmar's speech appears to extend to five or six pages0
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Naughty BBC, listing Zac as a CON.0
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Fourth place for the loony...loony surge?0
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the labour candidate is an idiot0
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Apparently Labour got less votes than it has members in Richmond! :-D0
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Sunil might have read his books.IanB2 said:Wolmar's speech appears to extend to five or six pages
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PrcpbuhIm0surbiton said:
May, May , May. Out, out, out !!! May out !Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly - only down 13%"
(ie 58% to 45%).0 -
They've listed Bercow as a CON for yearsRobD said:Naughty BBC, listing Zac as a CON.
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Neither did Hillary, only down 3% on Obama, but.....MikeL said:Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly" - only down 13% (ie 58% to 45%).
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Andrew Neil says Goldsmith was Independent - slide wrong.0
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Was Sarah Olney's dad a bus driver?0
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All in all, in conclusion this By-election had the same swing as the Eastleigh By-election of 1994.
The Richmond and Witney by-elections with the very high swing from Tory to LD (22% and 19%), including the equally large swings on the local by-elections from LD to Tory, all point out to big trouble for the Tories in the next GE.
There is no way around it, I can't see the Tories retaining a majority in the next GE.
Goodnight.0 -
They can try and put whatever "gloss" they want on it. Fact is the guy is a waste of space and a loser.MikeL said:Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly" - only down 13% (ie 58% to 45%).
Like most of these multi-millionaire posh boys he vastly over-estimated his own abilities and he has now destroyed himself.0 -
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Curtice is not a Conservative.GIN1138 said:
They can try and put whatever "gloss" they want on it. Fact is the guy is a waste of space and a loser.MikeL said:Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly" - only down 13% (ie 58% to 45%).
Like most of these multi-millionaire posh boys he vastly over-estimated his own abilities and he has now destroyed himself.0 -
GIN1138 said:
They can try and put whatever "gloss" they want on it. Fact is the guy is a waste of space and a loser.MikeL said:Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly" - only down 13% (ie 58% to 45%).
Like most of these multi-millionaire posh boys he vastly over-estimated his own abilities and he has now destroyed himself.
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And also underline once again that opinion polls aren't the only story in town.Speedy said:All in all, in conclusion this By-election had the same swing as the Eastleigh By-election of 1994.
The Richmond and Witney by-elections with the very high swing from Tory to LD (22% and 19%), including the equally large swings on the local by-elections from LD to Tory, all point out to big trouble for the Tories in the next GE.
There is no way around it, I can't see the Tories retaining a majority in the next GE.
Goodnight.0 -
I think he is a fairly soft SNP voter.MikeL said:
Curtice is not a Conservative.GIN1138 said:
They can try and put whatever "gloss" they want on it. Fact is the guy is a waste of space and a loser.MikeL said:Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly" - only down 13% (ie 58% to 45%).
Like most of these multi-millionaire posh boys he vastly over-estimated his own abilities and he has now destroyed himself.0
This discussion has been closed.