Not important but this means the number of female MPs will almost certainly hit 30% next week with the result of the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election.
Curtice: "Zac didn't do that badly - only down 13%"
(ie 58% to 45%).
45% is usually enough to win a parliamentary seat these days with at least four main parties.
It's clear that the opinion polls are wrong though, again.
The Tories are not on 44% and the LD are not on 7%.
I believe the opinion polls, more or less. By-elections don't usually have anything to do with the national picture.
If I have to guess based on the Westminster By-elections and the local By-elections, I say that the Tories are in the mid-30's, Labour low-30's high 20's, LDs in the teens and UKIP in single digits.
Basically since the GE a large chunk of UKIP voters moving Tory but being replaced by Tory voters going LD mostly reflecting the new Leave-Remain territory.
If I have to guess based on the Westminster By-elections and the local By-elections, I say that the Tories are in the mid-30's, Labour low-30's high 20's, LDs in the teens and UKIP in single digits.
Basically since the GE a large chunk of UKIP voters moving Tory but being replaced by Tory voters going LD mostly reflecting the new Leave-Remain territory.
Interesting. I can see the polls underestimating Lib Dems a shade due to past vote recall nudging them down. I still struggle with the idea of them grossly overestimating the Tories, though. History just suggests polls very, very rarely do that at General Election level (certainly do at local and Euro elections... when it really doesn't matter).
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Basically since the GE a large chunk of UKIP voters moving Tory but being replaced by Tory voters going LD mostly reflecting the new Leave-Remain territory.
Unfortunate for the government- but couldn't have happened to a more self indulgent posh boy...
You read that right back when the b/e was announced. The LD's were value at >evens.
Still, the market was fairly efficient. No huge long odds surprises.