It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long.
The hope will be that UKIP ends up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament leading to a Con/Kipper government.
That looks like the only way Brexit will happen.
This was my view before Zac immolated himself though. I think his daft vanity election is neither here nor there...
1. T May sees this scenario. That's why, despite her personal views, she says Brexit Means Brexit. The Tory party won't stop Brexit (because to do otherwise would be suicidal) and if Brexit goes to a parliamentary vote, any wavering Tory MP will be given chinese burns until they see sense.
2. If T May does not secure Brexit before 2020, it seems unlikely (but not impossible) that Ukip will go into the election on the basis that they will form a coalition with the Tories after the election. And the Tories won't want to have such a coalition either. If a Con-Ukip coalition were somehow to happen, it'd be hilarious.
If UKIP is targetting Labour voters a coalition with the Tories would be a killer.
The fact is the vast majority of Richmond Park voters would prefer to still see David Cameron in Downing Street rather than Theresa May. That's probably one of the reasons for this result. They're the sort of voters who are used to always getting their own way and are probably annoyed at the way things have gone recently. Between 1997 and 2016 nearly everything that happened was in accordance with their preferences and tastes.
Richmond obviously not typical of UK, not indicative of UK opinion on Brexit, BUT what is more important is that it shows tory vote softer than than thought, and that alone may affect May's thinking on brexit (i.e inch towards soft brexit)
This is not just about the EU. Goldsmith's vile, racist campaign against Sadiq Khan could also be coming back to bite him. Here's hoping.
No comment on any of that, but this result once again drives a wedge between London and the rest of the country. It brilliantly showcases the growing divide between the capital and everywhere else. Pro-Brexit candidates are likely to get as much as 70% of the vote in the Sleaford by-election next week, for example.
What nonsense , Chichester voted narrowly Leave and still saw a 24% swing from Con to Lib Dem today .
This is not just about the EU. Goldsmith's vile, racist campaign against Sadiq Khan could also be coming back to bite him. Here's hoping.
It does not do much for house prices if an area is perceived as racist. Cost free virtue signalling from the voters of Richmond.
We all virtue signal. It's just that we want to be associated with different virtues.
Not sympathetic towards anti-Heathrow, anti-noise and anti-pollution voters in Richmond when per capita they probably generate more air miles and car fumes per head than most of the rest of the country.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
They had 2 years once it was declared.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that. It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
Still think it was the right decision. After all, they would still be in the midst of a legal challenge regarding if the declaration was valid.
Regardless of the legal, at that point it would be a fait accompli.
Going to court to argue that May should not have declared sans Parliament is qualitatively different to going to court to argue that May cannot declare sans Parliament
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
They had 2 years once it was declared.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that. It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
Still think it was the right decision. After all, they would still be in the midst of a legal challenge regarding if the declaration was valid.
Regardless of the legal, at that point it would be a fait accompli.
Going to court to argue that May should not have declared sans Parliament is qualitatively different to going to court to argue that May cannot declare sans Parliament
Only in that the government would have fallen immediately if they had been shown to have acted illegally.
All in all, in conclusion this By-election had the same swing as the Eastleigh By-election of 1994.
The Richmond and Witney by-elections with the very high swing from Tory to LD (22% and 19%), including the equally large swings on the local by-elections from LD to Tory, all point out to big trouble for the Tories in the next GE.
There is no way around it, I can't see the Tories retaining a majority in the next GE.
All in all, in conclusion this By-election had the same swing as the Eastleigh By-election of 1994.
The Richmond and Witney by-elections with the very high swing from Tory to LD (22% and 19%), including the equally large swings on the local by-elections from LD to Tory, all point out to big trouble for the Tories in the next GE.
There is no way around it, I can't see the Tories retaining a majority in the next GE.
Goodnight.
And also underline once again that opinion polls aren't the only story in town.
Comments
Can afford to give up 30 to the Lib Dems with those potential numbers.
Here's the loser!
Going to court to argue that May should not have declared sans Parliament is qualitatively different to going to court to argue that May cannot declare sans Parliament
Lebo-Norpeth.
BINGO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May may be considering building the runway in the middle of the constituency tonight.
When will we learn.
Goldsmith 18,638
Lab 1,515
Loony 184
CPA 164
LD maj 1,864
CON 45
Lab 4
A 22 point swing.
Will grab 'em by the pussy.
Only reason it could have more chance is if this enables May to scare rebels into voting for it.
(ie 58% to 45%).
The Richmond and Witney by-elections with the very high swing from Tory to LD (22% and 19%), including the equally large swings on the local by-elections from LD to Tory, all point out to big trouble for the Tories in the next GE.
There is no way around it, I can't see the Tories retaining a majority in the next GE.
Goodnight.
Like most of these multi-millionaire posh boys he vastly over-estimated his own abilities and he has now destroyed himself.
The Tories are not on 44% and the LD are not on 7%.