Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
Soft Brexit was/is a given. How is Hard Brexit possible on a referendum 52% vote? Also, the government's heart is not in immigration controls anyway. Look at T May's record.
We need to go on a big house building program then
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
Any Remain voting Tory seat with a Brexit supporting MP could be target for the Libdems in 2020. There must be 6-8 seats that are realistic for the Yellows to target with that profile.
Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
Soft Brexit was/is a given. How is Hard Brexit possible on a referendum 52% vote? Also, the government's heart is not in immigration controls anyway. Look at T May's record.
She just needs to lead the hard leavers to the cliff edge and get them to actually look over the edge. Hence the need for time and a degree of secrecy as she proceeds
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
That reads far too much into the result of a by election in a seat which the LibDems held from 1997 - 2010.Before that, it was a Tory/Liberal marginal dating back to 1983 when Alan Watson came close to winning the old Richmond seat. It will boost the LibDems in terms of morale but have little wider significance. It will be interesting to see how well they do at Sleaford next week!
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
Any Remain voting Tory seat with a Brexit supporting MP could be target for the Libdems in 2020. There must be 6-8 seats that are realistic for the Yellows to target with that profile.
There are 77 Tory constituencies with a remain majority. How many have a Brexiot MP I don't know. Half of them?
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
Soft Brexit was/is a given. How is Hard Brexit possible on a referendum 52% vote? Also, the government's heart is not in immigration controls anyway. Look at T May's record.
She just needs to lead the hard leavers to the cliff edge and get them to actually look over the edge. Hence the need for time and a degree of secrecy as she proceeds
This was always her strategy. Play the hard Brexit card has been a clever ruse by TM.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
Any Remain voting Tory seat with a Brexit supporting MP could be target for the Libdems in 2020. There must be 6-8 seats that are realistic for the Yellows to target with that profile.
There are 77 Tory constituencies with a remain majority. How many have a Brexiot MP I don't know. Half of them?
The only surprise now would be a Dunfermline type situation where something which people in the hall haven't noticed has tipped the poll the other way. But those situations are rare, not least because the agents will have had their chat with the RO before the declaration.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
That reads far too much into the result of a by election in a seat which the LibDems held from 1997 - 2010.Before that, it was a Tory/Liberal marginal dating back to 1983 when Alan Watson came close to winning the old Richmond seat. It will boost the LibDems in terms of morale but have little wider significance. It will be interesting to see how well they do at Sleaford next week!
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Agreed - majority will be 14 so 7 votes against means a tie (if no abstentions).
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
or they just call the bet with a UKIP vote in Sleaford
FPT Thank you for the reply The point you haven't addressed however is that the burqa impacts more widely than on the person wearing it.
Personally as a libetarian I am loathe to ban anything that people wish to do, it seems to me though that the burqa impacts on so much a wider area than than that of the people wearing it that it should be considered in much the same way as many other arguments of such kind "Your right to throw your fists around ends just before the tip of my nose"
I took a long while to answer the burqa ban calls because while my gut said ban them my mind said its not the states place to interfere and I had to work out that difference. All in all I think societies needs outweigh the principles of wearing the burqa for the reasons I mentioned. I also didnt mention that it would normalise it so that people felt pressured to adopt it.
What is it about British Muslims that makes these horrible shrouds so popular among them? Is it a particular kind of migrant/community? Is it some perverse kind of British Muslim fashion?
Here are a few reasons:
1. O Prophet! Tell your wives and your daughters and the women of the believers to draw their cloaks (veils) all over their bodies (i.e. screen themselves completely except the eyes or one eye to see the way). That will be better, that they should be known (as free respectable women) so as not to be annoyed. And Allah is Ever Oft Forgiving, Most Merciful. (Al-Ahzab 33:59)
2. It's a form of Ibadah (worship), a way of feeling closer to Allah. Muslims believe that this Dunya (this life on earth) is for worshipping Allah. Dunya is just a test for what really matters: the Akhira (next life). Everything a person does will have consequences in the Akhira.
3. The rise of Salafism. Salafi's say we need to go back to basic principles and live as the Prophet and his Companions lived. The Prophet's wives were completely covered. Salafi's say that Hadiths indicate women should live in seclusion apart from in front of other women or maharams (husbands, brothers, fathers, father-in-laws), a burqa or abaya with niqab allows for the woman to be in seclusion but still live, work and be present in society.
Burqas and niqabs should not be banned in the UK, they are a part of an increasing number of Muslim women's idenity and religious worship. Any ban would increase tensions and would create a nightmare for police and authorities to enforce. These women will not suddenly take off their burqas and go around uncovered, instead they will retreat into the home and not work or be in education. Also, Women do not endless debate what men should wear or campaign to ban men from wearing this or that particular clothing.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Agreed - majority will be 14 so 7 votes against means a tie (if no abstentions).
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
True - a London Tory source told me it was the potential Gvt majority on the boundaries that was the biggest reason they didn't stand tonight
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
Is Betfair likely to open a most votes market for the next general election?
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Agreed - majority will be 14 so 7 votes against means a tie (if no abstentions).
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
True - a London Tory source told me it was the potential Gvt majority on the boundaries that was the biggest reason they didn't stand tonight
Agreed.
Only other card is to get DUP support. I know initial recommendations are bad for DUP but DUP might get them changed and then Theresa May might try and do a deal of some kind.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
Any Remain voting Tory seat with a Brexit supporting MP could be target for the Libdems in 2020. There must be 6-8 seats that are realistic for the Yellows to target with that profile.
There are 77 Tory constituencies with a remain majority. How many have a Brexiot MP I don't know. Half of them?
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long.
The hope will be that UKIP ends up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament leading to a Con/Kipper government.
That looks like the only way Brexit will happen.
This was my view before Zac immolated himself though. I think his daft vanity election is neither here nor there...
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
It's not being prepared that was stupid. Two years is ample time to negotiate what they've got to negotiate.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
It's not being prepared that was stupid. Two years is ample time to negotiate what they've got to negotiate.
They were stupid for not preparing, and would have been stupid to declare it the day after.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Agreed - majority will be 14 so 7 votes against means a tie (if no abstentions).
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
True - a London Tory source told me it was the potential Gvt majority on the boundaries that was the biggest reason they didn't stand tonight
Agreed.
Only other card is to get DUP support. I know initial recommendations are bad for DUP but DUP might get them changed and then Theresa May might try and do a deal of some kind.
Having spent a long time playing with the handy 'boundaryassistant' site, the problem is that the electoral criteria are so tight this time that it is impossible to do the normal trade-offs to get a set of proposals that are at least half way sensible in most places. Wherever you start drawing up sensible seats, by the time you reach the other end of the area you finish with proposals that are usually verging on ridiculous.
So on all sides there will be a fair few MPs aghast when they see the final map.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
They had 2 years once it was declared.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that. It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
They had 2 years once it was declared.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that. It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
Still think it was the right decision. After all, they would still be in the midst of a legal challenge regarding if the declaration was valid.
The Liberals or LDs have either won or been within 4,215 votes of winning the various Richmond-based constituencies in every election since 1974 except 2015 which was very much the outlier:
Feb 1974, Con maj over Lib: 3,827 Oct 1974, Con maj over Lib: 4,215 1979, Con maj over Lib: 2,530 1983, Con maj over Lib: 74 1987, Con maj over Lib: 1,766 1992, Con maj over LDs: 3,869 1997, LD maj: 2,951 2001, LD maj: 4,964 2005, LD maj: 3,731 2010, Con maj over LDs: 4,091 2015, Con maj over LDs: 23,015
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
I don't think it is that bad for the Tories - neither the LibDems nor UKIP are going to flourish in the way you are suggesting.
On Twitter Sky’s Faisal Islam has been reminding people of this claim about the likely byelection result that Zac Goldsmith made on the day he triggered the byelection. Goldsmith said:
People here feel as strongly as I do about the issue [Heathrow]. You can have a referendum about Heathrow and you will get Zimbabwean-esque results.
Almost everyone is opposed. It has massive massive implications, way beyond Richmond Park. It affects a million people, it’s a significant chunk of our population.
I don’t believe Heathrow will be delivered. I see this by-election as a referendum on Heathrow.
The Liberals or LDs have either won or been within 4,215 votes of winning the various Richmond-based constituencies in every election since 1974. 2015 was very much the outlier:
Feb 1974, Con maj over Lib: 3,827 Oct 1974, Con maj over Lib: 4,215 1979, Con maj over Lib: 2,530 1983, Con maj over Lib: 74 1987, Con maj over Lib: 1,766 1992, Con maj over LDs: 3,869 1997, LD maj: 2,951 2001, LD maj: 4,964 2005, LD maj: 3,731 2010, Con maj over LDs: 4,091 2015, Con maj over LDs: 23,015
Well for all the abuse Tim Farron got, leaking the poll yesterday is looking like a masterstroke
Like I said, the tactical vote was critical. My guess is that it was particularly easy to win over Labour voters in Richmond right now because their position on both heathrow and Brexit is all over the place.
The LibDems owe a big thank you to Caroline Lucas - which could be an interesting back story to tonight's result. She has a big favour to call in when it suits her.
The Liberals or LDs have either won or been within 4,215 votes of winning the various Richmond-based constituencies in every election since 1974 except 2015 which was very much the outlier:
Feb 1974, Con maj over Lib: 3,827 Oct 1974, Con maj over Lib: 4,215 1979, Con maj over Lib: 2,530 1983, Con maj over Lib: 74 1987, Con maj over Lib: 1,766 1992, Con maj over LDs: 3,869 1997, LD maj: 2,951 2001, LD maj: 4,964 2005, LD maj: 3,731 2010, Con maj over LDs: 4,091 2015, Con maj over LDs: 23,015
So the LD are going to win most of the seats they lost in 2015 against the Tories.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
Declaring it on the day would have been stupid, especially as the government wasn't even prepared for the brexit outcome.
I must respectfully disagree. If you can do it in 2yrs 9 months after the referendum (assuming March 2017 declaration), you can do it in 2 years (declaring it on the day).
This is not just about the EU. Goldsmith's vile, racist campaign against Sadiq Khan could also be coming back to bite him. Here's hoping.
No comment on any of that, but this result once again drives a wedge between London and the rest of the country. It brilliantly showcases the growing divide between the capital and everywhere else. Pro-Brexit candidates are likely to get as much as 70% of the vote in the Sleaford by-election next week, for example.
I feel sorry for the poor people whose enjoyment of where they live is now probably even more likely to be damaged by the new runway just because this spoilt brat had a play-up.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Probably correct. Those of us who voted LEAVE and are now having our votes trashed and discarded will have a hard decision to make when the next election comes.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
That's the danger for the Tories. The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long.
The hope will be that UKIP ends up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament leading to a Con/Kipper government.
That looks like the only way Brexit will happen.
This was my view before Zac immolated himself though. I think his daft vanity election is neither here nor there...
1. T May sees this scenario. That's why, despite her personal views, she says Brexit Means Brexit. The Tory party won't stop Brexit (because to do otherwise would be suicidal) and if Brexit goes to a parliamentary vote, any wavering Tory MP will be given chinese burns until they see sense.
2. If T May does not secure Brexit before 2020, it seems unlikely (but not impossible) that Ukip will go into the election on the basis that they will form a coalition with the Tories after the election. And the Tories won't want to have such a coalition either. If a Con-Ukip coalition were somehow to happen, it'd be hilarious.
The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.
Also it is obviously going to be close.
The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.
No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
I'd still bet on a Tory majority in 2020. Richmond Park is hardly a representative sample. Labour are at sea with a lousy leader. Ukip will struggle to overcome FPTP, although they might crack a few Labour targets if Soft Brexit disappoints the hoi polloi. If T May holds her nerve, and the economy ticks along, and the boundary review goes through, and the opposition is split three ways, the Tories would have to work very hard to lose in 2020.
If the Tories lose tonight the boundaries will seem a bit less likely!!
Agreed - majority will be 14 so 7 votes against means a tie (if no abstentions).
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
True - a London Tory source told me it was the potential Gvt majority on the boundaries that was the biggest reason they didn't stand tonight
Agreed.
Only other card is to get DUP support. I know initial recommendations are bad for DUP but DUP might get them changed and then Theresa May might try and do a deal of some kind.
The DUP supported the Labour Private Members Bill last week which seeks to maintain the number of MPs at 650. Doubt they will get any help there. Add on - say - couple of further losses over the next 18 months and it will look very dicey that the boundary changes will be approved. No wonder a senior Tory MP suggested that there was a 60% chance of them not going through!
Comments
Presumably a mistake.
(Congrats on the TV deal!)
Rural Lincolnshire is not London.
Stick with the established parties for the sake of the country?
Or vote for UKIP and try to bring the whole edifice of government down.
I suspect a lot of people will go for the second option.
Only way it goes through is if Theresa May goes for a zero tolerance policy - she is personally going to have to call in every single unhappy MP.
Thank you for the reply
The point you haven't addressed however is that the burqa impacts more widely than on the person wearing it.
Personally as a libetarian I am loathe to ban anything that people wish to do, it seems to me though that the burqa impacts on so much a wider area than than that of the people wearing it that it should be considered in much the same way as many other arguments of such kind "Your right to throw your fists around ends just before the tip of my nose"
I took a long while to answer the burqa ban calls because while my gut said ban them my mind said its not the states place to interfere and I had to work out that difference. All in all I think societies needs outweigh the principles of wearing the burqa for the reasons I mentioned. I also didnt mention that it would normalise it so that people felt pressured to adopt it. Here are a few reasons:
1. O Prophet! Tell your wives and your daughters and the women of the believers to draw their cloaks (veils) all over their bodies (i.e. screen themselves completely except the eyes or one eye to see the way). That will be better, that they should be known (as free respectable women) so as not to be annoyed. And Allah is Ever Oft Forgiving, Most Merciful. (Al-Ahzab 33:59)
2. It's a form of Ibadah (worship), a way of feeling closer to Allah. Muslims believe that this Dunya (this life on earth) is for worshipping Allah. Dunya is just a test for what really matters: the Akhira (next life). Everything a person does will have consequences in the Akhira.
3. The rise of Salafism. Salafi's say we need to go back to basic principles and live as the Prophet and his Companions lived. The Prophet's wives were completely covered. Salafi's say that Hadiths indicate women should live in seclusion apart from in front of other women or maharams (husbands, brothers, fathers, father-in-laws), a burqa or abaya with niqab allows for the woman to be in seclusion but still live, work and be present in society.
Burqas and niqabs should not be banned in the UK, they are a part of an increasing number of Muslim women's idenity and religious worship. Any ban would increase tensions and would create a nightmare for police and authorities to enforce. These women will not suddenly take off their burqas and go around uncovered, instead they will retreat into the home and not work or be in education. Also, Women do not endless debate what men should wear or campaign to ban men from wearing this or that particular clothing.
The S.E. and London will swing LD, the rest will swing UKIP, the Tories will be caught in the middle.
It's the price for leaving the decision to activate Article 50 in the air for too long, probably the only thing that Cameron was correct.
The new richmond park airport gets announced tomorrow.
Only other card is to get DUP support. I know initial recommendations are bad for DUP but DUP might get them changed and then Theresa May might try and do a deal of some kind.
That looks like the only way Brexit will happen.
This was my view before Zac immolated himself though. I think his daft vanity election is neither here nor there...
Wonder what happened to this happy chappy?
If it's close, or a narrow win either way then what he's saying probably isn;t wrong.
So on all sides there will be a fair few MPs aghast when they see the final map.
Thought Zac was a foregone conclusion.
Extraordinary.
There was plenty of time to negotiate.
Leaving the issue up in the air means increasing the risk all the time that the government will fall in the middle, Cameron knew that.
It's basic politics, you don't leave explosive political issues unresolved for too long.
The John Moore de nos jours.
The odds at the outset (~evens either way) are looking like they were correctish
Feb 1974, Con maj over Lib: 3,827
Oct 1974, Con maj over Lib: 4,215
1979, Con maj over Lib: 2,530
1983, Con maj over Lib: 74
1987, Con maj over Lib: 1,766
1992, Con maj over LDs: 3,869
1997, LD maj: 2,951
2001, LD maj: 4,964
2005, LD maj: 3,731
2010, Con maj over LDs: 4,091
2015, Con maj over LDs: 23,015
It's official.
On Twitter Sky’s Faisal Islam has been reminding people of this claim about the likely byelection result that Zac Goldsmith made on the day he triggered the byelection. Goldsmith said:
People here feel as strongly as I do about the issue [Heathrow]. You can have a referendum about Heathrow and you will get Zimbabwean-esque results.
Almost everyone is opposed. It has massive massive implications, way beyond Richmond Park. It affects a million people, it’s a significant chunk of our population.
I don’t believe Heathrow will be delivered. I see this by-election as a referendum on Heathrow.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live?page=with:block-5840d0f6e4b056d3d56ac5db#block-5840d0f6e4b056d3d56ac5db
The LibDems owe a big thank you to Caroline Lucas - which could be an interesting back story to tonight's result. She has a big favour to call in when it suits her.
Remain correlation for Lib Dems could be a strong indicator.
Edit/ Betfair has removed all the unmatched LibDem money..game over
2. If T May does not secure Brexit before 2020, it seems unlikely (but not impossible) that Ukip will go into the election on the basis that they will form a coalition with the Tories after the election. And the Tories won't want to have such a coalition either. If a Con-Ukip coalition were somehow to happen, it'd be hilarious.
It would rival the Christchurch 1993 by-election in swing.